Emcure Pharmaceuticals Limited (EMCURE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Emcure Pharmaceuticals' Q3 FY '25 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Piyush Nahar, EVP, Corporate Strategy and Development. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Thank you, Natasha. Good evening, everyone. Earlier today, we released our financials for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, along with the press release. These are also posted on our website. We hope you all had the chance to review it. I would like to bring to everyone's notice that this call is being recorded, and the recording and transcript will be available on our website. To discuss the company's business performance and outlook, we have on the call our Group CEO, Mr. Satish Mehta; CFO, Mr. Tajuddin Shaikh; President, Corporate Development, Strategy and Finance, Mr. Vikas Thapar; and Executive Director of Operations, Mr. Samit Mehta. Before we begin, I want to remind everyone about the safe harbor related to today's investor call. Today's discussion may include certain forward-looking statements, which must be reviewed in conjunction with the risks that our business faces that could cause our future results, performance or achievements to differ significantly from what is expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. At the end of the call, if any of your queries remain unanswered, please feel free to contact us at Investor Relations. I will now request Mr. Satish Mehta to provide the opening remarks. Thanks, and over to you, sir.

Thanks, Piyush. Good evening all. It's a pleasure to speak to you all today and present our 3Q '25 results update. At the outset, I would like to thank you all for joining the Emcure family, which has grown substantially post listing. Before listing, we had 20, 25 equity holders and now the family is more than 140,000, and that puts enormous amount of responsibility on me as CEO and all of us at Emcure decisions maker are acutely conscious of our responsibility. Post listing, we at Emcure have worked on a 5-year plan to deliver industry-leading growth. And personally, I'm very excited about this. This will be led by in-house innovation. R&D is one of the major strength that we have. It will also be led by M&A and in-licensing. In this endeavor today, I will talk about what we are doing on derma as we go along and also tell you about our strategy as to what we intend doing in ophthalmology and other key products that we're launching -- intend launching in near future. There are other areas we are working on, which we'll talk as we go forward. Just to get back to the results that we released today, I'm sure you guys had a chance to look at our results. Our 3Q revenue grew by 18% year-on-year and our adjusted PAT grew by 36% year-on-year. Let me give you some key business updates for your consideration. Of course, we will have question-and-answer session post my opening remarks. Let me start with the international business, which continues to do very well on the back of our differentiated portfolio. Our Canada business, about which I spoke last time about the acquisition that we did of Mantra last year in the month of November is now fully integrated and doing exceedingly well as shown in the results of North America. In the emerging markets, the matter which previous us is the strong growth that we have seen and non-ARV segment. In U.S., EU, as we guided earlier, the growth in the current year will be muted. But as we go along as for the next year is concerned, I'm sure that as far as EU is concerned, that would also be back on track as far as the growth trajectory is concerned. As far as the international business is concerned, I expect the growth on the back of differentiated products. And I would like to draw your attention to one key opportunity that is on the verge of getting completed in due course of time. That is liposomal amphotericin B. We have filed the product across several of our target markets, and we are now seeing approvals flow through. We are very positive on this opportunity. Infinitely, I told you in the last meeting as well that the product has been approved in the U.K. and is doing exceedingly well. Now having spoken about the international business, let me now turn my attention to domestic business, which is very, very close to my heart and to -- it means a lot to all of us in the company. The domestic business in the quarter has grown by 12%. And now I would like to draw attention on following. During the quarter, we restructured our cardio diabetes portfolio by cross-pollinating our and Sanofi products. This is very important because one of the things that has happened that I bought Sanofi guys more than 240 people joined us and they come with huge background with great connect with cardio diabetes. So to that extent, my initial goal and strategy was to ensure that they get assimilated with the Emcure culture. And eventually, we would like to make use of this highly talented, respected field force to promote our products at high margin. So we saw some restructuring and cross-pollination in the current quarter. And this will obviously have some impact because, as you know, when the products are transferred from one division to another, it takes some time to get the traction. So we are going through that particular phase. Also, as far as acute is concerned, acute segment continues to have anemic growth, muted growth for the industry. Our objective in India, and as I told you in the beginning, this is Indian market is very, very close to our heart is to grow faster than the industry. If you look at the Emcure success, it has been essentially driven by differentiated products. And my company has given lots of first launches to name chirality or [indiscernible] preparations or even for that matter, TNK-tPA for both AMI and stroke and asparaginase for leukemia, to name a few, very many products have been given to the country for the first time, and they have made great success. Now some of the areas on which we are focusing, I would like to draw your attention. I told you in the last meeting that we have started a derma subsidiary under the name Emcutix. Now it is fully operational. I spoke to you about Satya, who was the Chief Executive of Galderma. He has now built up a team of 200 plus. And now all the new launches will start from FY '26. This will include both in-house and partner products because Satya comes with a lot of expertise and experience in global alliances, and I do expect in-house and partner products going forward. As you all know, derma is a big market of $3.6 billion, not necessarily conventional derma that we talk of. But at the same time, you also talk about the [indiscernible], the products for pediatric and so forth and so on. So obviously, we are very excited about the derma. The other segment that we will take up in the next few months is ophthalmology. And the reason being the in-house product that is bevacizumab for [indiscernible], which will help us to enter in this particular market, and we have a patented device as far as bevacizumab is concerned. Currently, we are going through Phase III. And in due course of time, as far as this particular product is concerned that we launched in the market. And if you look at the strategy that Emcure has pursued, what we have done in every segment, we have an anchor brand on the back of that, we have launched very many products. And as far as bevacizumab is concerned, it should be the anchor brand to make a in ophthalmology in due course of time as and when it completes Phase III and gets approved. As you all know, we are leaders in the women health before I say that I spoke about dermatology and ophthalmology. And obviously, we'll build on our strength, double down on our strength. And that is something which I would like to say in the women health segment, we have recently launched products in key important segments and spaces of PCOS, pre and postmenopausal support, where we had some therapy gap that we are doing whatever needs to be done. I spoke about bevacizumab for ophthalmology, but at the same time, in -- on biosimilar, a lot of other work is going on. We are on the verge of getting recombinant asparaginase cleared by the Office of DCGI should happen in next 6 months' time because we have completed most of the studies. And this product is very important because currently, the asparaginase we are getting is from natural source and this recombinant will be a major breakthrough because it will give a product of absolutely outstanding quality. Finally, as I have been telling all along, ours is one company which is very strong in both biologics and chemistry. So obviously, we will -- we are also working on GLP-1. And I'm very confident that we will be the first wave of semaglutide launches in India and the product will be vertically integrated because we are working on whatever needs to be done. And apart from that, as I told you last time, we already have a facility, which is approved by EU for filling the product and also tablets as and when we launch. And while I'm talking about the domestic market where we are taking a lot of initiatives in terms of entering derma, making it big, then apart from that, Sanofi initiative and making our position stronger in the field of cardio diabetes, then having plans to go in for ophthalmology in due course of time. And even as far as oncology is concerned, where we have a reasonably good position to strengthen that portfolio by giving some biologics as we go along. We will do that. But at the same time, we are also extremely mindful about the productivity of our sales force on which we are receiving attention. I am very sure with these new initiatives and new launches, we will be accelerating our organic growth momentum and also improve our margins. I've been in the industry for more than 40 years. As you all know, I'm the founder member of this company. Yes, we are doing exceedingly well in the international market. But for me, the main objective is to put the domestic market on track and we need to grow more than the industry growth, and that is my very, very immediate goal and objective for which I'm giving my undiluted attention to ensure that the domestic growth also picks up in the next few months. With this, I would now request my CFO, Tajuddin, to give you more details on financials. And after that, we will be more than happy to field any questions that you may have. Thank you very much for patient hearing.

Good evening, everyone. I'll provide you some of the key financials before we open for Q&A. Our revenue from operations for Q3 grew by 18% year-over-year to INR 1,960 crores. Our domestic business grew by 12% year-over-year to INR 888 crores. Our international markets grew at 23% to INR 1,075 crores, led by our non-ARV business to emerging markets and the Canadian markets. Canada grew 34% to INR 352 crores in quarter 3. As you are aware, Mantra business was consolidated from November '23. Base business continues to do well and for the 9 months has grown at mid-teens. Emerging market sales for quarter 3 saw a very strong growth of 40% to INR 365 crores, led by growth in both non-ARV and ARV segments. Europe grew 2% to INR 358 crores for quarter 3. Coming to gross margins. Gross margins for the quarter stood at 60.1% against 62.7% in quarter 3 of '24. This decline is due to business mix. Sanofi business is at lower margins. The base business [ GC ] are stable year-over-year. Our EBITDA without other income grew 23% year-over-year to INR 362 crores. EBITDA margin stood at 18.4%. The margins are up Y-o-Y, led by operating leverage and better productivity. Depreciation and amortization expenses increased to INR 97 crores from INR 84 crores year-over-year due to the Mantra acquisition and other -- and operationalization of four new plants. Q-o-Q depreciation is flat. Our interest cost for the quarter was at INR 32 crores led by reduction in our borrowings. Our effective tax rate for 3Q was at 32%. This is higher due to the onetime adjustment of INR 15 crores. Ex of this, the tax rate stood at 26%. Adjusted PAT before the onetime tax impact stood at INR 171 crores, a growth of 43%. Reported PAT stood at INR 156 crores. Our net debt at the quarter end stood at INR 600 crores, down from INR 705 crores in quarter 2. Our working capital days remained stable at 96 days. We will now begin with the Q&A.

[Operator Instructions] The next first question is from the line of Bharat Shah from ASK Investment Managers.

I have two or three questions. You in the initial remarks, mentioned that Emcure is likely to be the first one to launch semaglutide in India. But we -- I heard the similar point being made by Eris Lifesciences 2 days back. You also talked about the strongest or the largest portfolio in the women's health care. But I thought that number probably belong to the main. So I'm a bit confused about both of those.

So this is Samit. I'll take your question on semaglutide. So as you're aware, semaglutide, the loss of exclusivity is in March of 2026 for India. And we expect there would be quite a few approvals, and we will be one among them is the endeavor that we are making. So it's not that we will be first to market. We will be in the first wave of entrants that will be able to enter at the loss of exclusivity.

And women health care portfolio?

Yes. I think you are correct that Mankind, particularly post acquisition of the Bharat Serums portfolio and absolute magnitude would be larger. I think we were basically highlighting that historically, we've always enjoyed a leading position in women's health care.

Yes, that clarifies. Secondly, you also mentioned that margins would improve going ahead. But when I look at the margins, they are so modest that they only can go up. They are so much below the industry margins that -- or rather than industry margin, let me put it, comparable model firms operating in this area. So margins in any cases, about 18% are quite underwhelming. And therefore, I would be curious to understand what kind of long-term trajectory you think these margins can be?

Sure. So I think when you look at our margins, it's important to look at kind of the current mix of the business which is obviously a mix of roughly half of the business being a domestic business, which includes both a fairly strong chronic as well as an acute segment. So obviously, you know what typical industry margins in those segments are. And we believe that we are more or less in line with that blended average of industry margins for the domestic portfolio. At the same time, we took on a significant portfolio of products for the cardiac -- or diabeto-cardiac range of Sanofi, which obviously comes at a different margin profile. As we had indicated in the past that as we unlock some synergies and our CEO mentioned some of the restructuring efforts that we undertook even in the current quarter, we think that the blended margins of the India business will definitely improve as we see higher productivity and some of the near-term exciting launches over the next 12 months in the Indian context as well. We also have roughly half the business on the international side, where some portion of that business does include the ARV segment, where the margins tend to be more like mid-teens profile. So one has to look at the blend of the overall international business. And then, of course, there are certain new areas that we are investing in -- so for example, our new subsidiary, Emcutix for the derma division is a brand-new initiative. We've already hired 200 team. We'll be launching several products over the next few months. And so that division, for example, will take some time to ramp up and get to what we would consider decent margins. And finally, as we had highlighted in the past, four of our facilities were recently operationalized over the last 18 months. And so those, obviously, as they continue to ramp, will further lead to some operating efficiency. So it's really a blend of all of these aspects where we believe the margin profile will continue to improve going forward.

So if I look at, let's say, next 3 to 4 years, would you like to have some benchmark or an idea as to where do you think you belong and where the margins would reside eventually?

See, I think looking at our own trajectory of where we think the different verticals are going to ramp, we believe that we should definitely be getting about a 300 to 400 basis point improvement in the margin profile over that time horizon. That will be the endeavor.

One last bit. There was -- probably I could not hear it clearly. There was a mention that reported profit after tax is INR 156 crores, but the adjusted one is INR 171 crores. If I heard it right, I wanted to understand what was that adjustment all about?

So it's a tax charge which has been charged to the P&L in this quarter with respect to the prior year.

This was a INR 15 crore onetime tax charge relating to a prior period.

The next question is from the line of Kunal Randeria from Axis Capital.

The first question on the domestic business. So can you share what is your growth -- organic growth, excluding the Sanofi portfolio? And how much of the impact is there of the FCM issue that you had?

So if I look at the organic ex FCM, we have grown at about 4%, and FCM would have impacted the reported growth about 3-odd percent.

Right. So your growth should be organic growth is around 7%. Is that -- is my understanding is correct?

4%. Organic ex FCM is 4%.

Ex FCM. Got it. Got it. That's helpful. Secondly, I think mentioned that you're for into ophthalmology and mentioned that you are going to wet AMD as one of the indications. So just wondering whether you'll be targeting these niche areas or your portfolio would be a lot more broad-based?

Yes. So in ophthalmology, the entry would be through this product, bevacizumab. And within that, this wet AMD indication, we see as a reasonably sizable opportunity. Post that also, there are two or three more indications for bevacizumab itself within the ophthalmology that we will be pursuing. And in addition to that, we will also build our portfolio given that Emcure has inherent strength in sterile products and most of the ophthalmology products are also sterile in nature. it's going to be fairly straightforward to us for us to build a portfolio around it. So between bevacizumab, some of this portfolio and where we are also looking at some active in-licensing opportunities, we think the entire basket for ophthalmology should be pretty robust.

All right. But is bevacizumab used for ophthalmology in India, I'm not sure, because globally, I don't think there's any acceptance has not conducted trials for it.

No. So globally, bevacizumab for wet AMD is already approved in U.K. and it is globally used off-label rampantly for wet AMD. In fact, in a few countries, it has already been added in the essential list for the ophthalmology indication. What we are doing in India through this clinical trial is, a, get it on label, but also through our patent delivery and device system, create some IP around it, which will have much better patient compliance as well as ease of use for the health care practitioners.

All right. And just if I can follow up on this only. Are there other players who already have [ SML ] approval in India marketing for this indication? Or is it just oncology for them?

No, no one has this indication approved on label. However, anecdotally, we are aware that some of the bevacizumab products that are approved in India are getting used off-label for this indication. However, given the nature of the product and the fact that it is not ophthalmic grade, there have been many serious side effects, including our losing vision and eyesight that have been reported in the press.

Right. Got it. And just last one, if I can, regarding Emcutix. Just wondering since you've already had 200 people on board now, what kind of portfolio do you intend to commercialize? I mean, is it medical derma or would it be cosmoderma? So if you can share a bit more details.

Yes. So we already have a portfolio of the prescription derma products. We are supplementing that with a few cosmeceuticals as well, cosmetology products. And the idea also is eventually in the medium term, target a few OTC brands as well. So it will be a pretty comprehensive portfolio. And again, as is Emcure's standard way of looking at the market, a lot of the product portfolio will be differentiated. So some of the areas like pediatric dermatology, which has not fully been exploited or is somewhat of an unmet need, Emcure will create some niche products there as well. And there is also going to be active in-licensing that will happen for this portfolio.

Would you then also be then just like ophthal division, would you also be doing maps for like the psoriasis or these kind of indications?

MAbs for derm or ophthal?

Derma, as you do ophthal. Do you also do for derma, for psoriasis, for example?

So they are not immediately in our in-house portfolio, but you are right, there are a few mAbs approved, especially for indications like atopic dermatitis and psoriasis. And we are talking to a few innovator companies to evaluate if we could partner with them for specifically these products in India.

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Alankar Garude from Kotak Institutional Equities.

Sir, you identified cardiac as a key focus area and especially with the Sanofi portfolio coming in, we would have imagined that, I mean, the numbers look better. But if you look at secondary sales data, growth clearly doesn't seem to be very strong. You spoke about that restructuring earlier. But is there any other challenge you might want to highlight on the cardiac side?

So, Alankar, I think as Satish sir on-site. In this quarter, because we did this restructuring, right? So the idea for Sanofi for the first 6 months was to stabilize the business because we're transitioning to a new company, stabilize the team. This quarter is when we actually started working on getting synergy benefits out of there. Now as you can imagine, moving around products across division, there was a bit of impact that we had on the sales for the current quarter. That is where you're seeing an impact on the secondary. I think there we are quite positive as now the team is -- the products are stabilized in the new divisions and all, you will see a lot of cross sales, cross co prescriptions coming through, and that should see an uptick going forward.

But Piyush, I mean, not just for, say, this quarter or maybe the last few quarters, right? I think in general, if I look at growth in the cardiac segment for us as reported by IQVIA, the numbers have not been at par with what the therapy growth has been. So just trying to understand, I mean, there was a senior leadership change as well a couple of years back on the chronic side. So any steps you might want to highlight even before, say, Sanofi came in, any impact of that coming in, addition of [ MARS ] as well? Any other changes which should help give us more confidence on the growth trajectory in cardiac going forward?

So I think there's -- one, in terms of the IQVIA and [ ICD ] our tracking has been a bit lower than what we tracked -- looked at internally. I think we discussed this earlier also. Before this quarter, we were tracking closer to 10% out in the cardiac segment. That this quarter has a bit slowed down out there. I think in terms of the measures and all, there's been a lot of work which has gone off in terms of [ Dr. Lisa ] improving out how we promote our products, a lot of work on scientific detailing. As you said, there have been a lot of team building excises which have done. There's a full new team on the cardiac segment, which is now driving that, including some which have come off from the MNC side. So there are multiple initiatives that we have taken out there.

Understood. And this impact of restructuring, which you spoke about is likely to normalize from the fourth quarter or it could continue for some time before it normalizes completely?

I think we should start seeing some improvement from fourth quarter onwards. So it may not be fully utilized, but it should improve versus what we have seen in this current quarter. We'll see an upward trajectory there.

Understood. The second question is, Satish bhai, you were alluding to the in-licensing initiatives in the previous call as well and you spoke about it earlier as well. Now which are the key therapeutic areas of focus for us? And maybe a subquestion there is, given many companies are actively looking at in-licensing opportunities, what are the IRR thresholds we are working with?

As far as the therapeutic areas are concerned, I think oncology, nephrology and metabolic these are the three areas and obviously, the derma ophthalmology in which we are making some foray. So these are the areas we are looking at. If you recollect, Alankar, last time also, I told you that as far as I am concerned, I have grown because of the support of multinationals. We are in position. A number of discussions are in advanced stage, so I'm not in a position to disclose. But these are the things which should happen in due course of time. So these are the areas on which I'm focusing, to reiterate, oncology, nephrology, metabolics, cardio and derma ophthal. So that's what we are being very focused.

And in terms of payback and all right, I think even if you look at with Sanofi, I think the idea is where we can get the brands, synergize them with our team and have a rub effect both in terms of our products and growing those products, right? So if you look at Sanofi, there wasn't an upfront payment that we made out there. So I think there we'll be quite conscious of where it fed out strategically for us. Where I think the payback becomes more and where we take a lot more closer look is if you're looking for very innovative products, which you want to get first to the market.

I mean just to give you an example, as Sameer mentioned some time back, we also are thinking of being in the first wave of semaglutide. So having a competent field force with metabolic that will be a great advantage going forward for doing the scientific detailing. So to that extent, this cross-pollination about which I spoke. So the type of products and even for that matter, our product Elaxim, which we launched a few years back for AMI, that particular product is also being given to this particular team because I believe they will be in a position to do a better scientific detailing to the doctors. So lots of initiatives are being taken. And as I said in my opening remarks, Alankar, this is very important to me. So personal attention is being given. So as Piyush rightly said, we should see some positive results definitely in the first quarter of '25 for sure.

Understood, sir. That's helpful. And maybe one question as I come back is, can you elaborate on the utilization levels across the four new facilities, Pune, Sanand, Mehsana and Kadu?

So Pune is now -- Pune has been largely now at peak utilization, and that has been there in last year. That's what led us to setting up our Kadu and Mehsana plant. Coming specifically to those plants, Sanand is now closer to about 60-odd percent utilization that we will be at. The oncology is still in early stages because there, we are still ramping up the filings are still coming through. In terms of Kadu, that is now getting more closer to breakeven. I think by end of the fiscal year, that should be at breakeven levels there. Mehsana, we have two lines there. We have an injectable block and the orals. The orals is now again at 50% plus utilized. Injectables is still, I think, will take probably another 12, 18 months before we get to optimal utilization.

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Alok Dalal from Jefferies India Private Limited.

The first question is on the guidance. So in August, the company had given a guidance of achieving 20% revenue growth and margin in the 20% to 21% range. Are you on track to achieve that for the full year?

So I think given the domestic has been a bit slow, I think on the top line side, we'll be probably closer to about 18% to 19%. On the margins front, I think we have guided for 20%, including the other income. I think what we'll end up is without the other income closer to about 19%, 18.5%, 19% without the other income.

18.5%, 19% without other income?

Without other income.

Okay. And Piyush, for the 9 months, what is the contribution of ARV sales to the company?

Give me 1 second. Sir, 9 months would have been roughly about -- roughly half of our emerging sales would have been the ARV.

Half of emerging?

Yes.

Okay. And at the start, you mentioned that emerging market growth is being driven by non-ARV product segment. So which are those product categories and markets where the growth is coming?

So non-ARV, if you look at it, we are present across four areas, right? LatAm is a big market for us. Second is the MENA region. And third is the Asia, which is more the neighboring countries like Sri Lanka, Mauritius, Philippines, Myanmar and all, right? In terms of the product portfolio, I think it's the more differentiated products, right, chiral products, some of our biologics, the complex injectables, those are the ones. And this differentiated portfolio is what is leading to this growth. So especially some of our biologics, we are now seeing approvals coming through in key markets that is driving that out, even some of our more injectables pipeline, including amphotericin, which has started getting approvals now in some of the markets out.

I mean just to add to what my colleague has said, as far as the business in emerging markets is concerned, that's the function of approvals. So the company has taken a very conscious deliberate decision to file differentiated products and whatever we have filed 18, 24 months back, now we are getting the traction. So that's the reason you are seeing that uptick as far as the market is concerned emerging. And as I told in my opening remarks, we at Emcure, we are very optimistic about amphotericin B and which is getting traction in countries. We are getting virtually one or two approvals every month.

Got it. And Satish bhai, you mentioned current year for Europe will be muted. Should we expect a pickup in FY '26 towards the high single-digit growth mark?

Yes, that's correct.

So I think Alok it has been mentioned, the key products we are expecting approval, those have been more back-ended. And so those we are expecting start of the fiscal year '26. So that should drive the growth going forward.

Got it. Okay. And last question is on semaglutide launch in India in 2026. So assuming a few companies launch at the same time, what will be the edge for Emcure amongst all the competitors?

A couple of things. I think the fact that there's a large degree of vertical integration that's something that should help us. And the other thing also is that like was mentioned earlier, the fact that we have a very trained field force in the metabolics area is something that should help us to get a head start for this product.

I mean one more thing I will tell you, typically, what happens that some of the manufacturers who get the approval, they are inclined to give it to five, six people at a time and they keep on competing with each other. So it's my belief for products of semaglutide, if you want to stay in the market and do a good job in that case, you must have complete control of the supply chain. So that's one area we are vertically integrated, whether it is API or the injectable tablets that we've been making. And as Sameer rightly mentioned, it will be in the hands of highly competent trained people. So that's the reason we are pretty bullish about it. And the market is huge. So I think there are good scope going forward.

And Satish bhai, any plans to take semaglutide overseas? Any markets being targeted?

Yes. Again, we look at it in two phases. So one is some of the nearby markets where of the clinical trials that we're doing for India, where the acceptance is there, those will be in phase 1. And then it will also be for some of the more regulated markets, an entire different strategy that will be required, which we are pursuing in parallel. So there will kind of be a phase 2 approach in some of those other more regulated markets.

Okay. So Samit, how big can this opportunity be? India plus international combined for Emcure, rough ballpark, what are you guys thinking?

Anyone's guess.

Yes. So it's a very difficult number to put because in India, the product has not really been officially available and the supplies have been so limited. So at present, the numbers look very small. But given there could be a situation of unconstrained supply, it will also require some element of market shaping. So it could turn out to be very large.

Yes, I'll just tell you that I regularly subscribe to economics. And some time back, on the front page. And the #1 product in the world right now is KEYTRUDA of Merck. It does around $27 billion or $28 billion. And economists they are projecting a sale of something like $100 million for this particular product [indiscernible] anyone's guess. I don't have a crystal ball. But based on whatever we are reading and even for that matter, the various indications for which semaglutide is getting the approval sometime back, I also got approval for...

Chronic kidney diabetic...

Diabetic even for that heart fail it also works. So I think anyone's guess. Only thing that we can say appears, underline the word, appears to be a pathbreaking molecule and should have huge potential. So no one that many people are chasing, and we are one of them. And we are probably better placed because we have complete control on the entire value chain.

The next question is from the line of Gagan Thareja from ASK Investment Managers.

Yes. Sir, the first question is around the brand which saw patent expiration, I think [ Orofer ] you indicated the impact on the quarter sales was 3% because of the expiration. Can you also quote the same figure for 9 months?

Give me one second. 9 months would have been about closer to 5%.

So you're saying that -- I mean, in the reported numbers, there's a 5% impact year-to-date of this one brand alone, which has brought down your sales...

For the domestic.

For the domestic. And the base business for the quarter grew by 4%, excluding this one. And for 9 months, how much would the base business have grown ex of Sanofi and...

About 6.5%.

6% to 7%, right?

6% to 7%. Okay. So essentially, I mean, for the year, the incremental sales is all Sanofi linked. I mean, if I do the math roughly, 6.5% netted off from 5%, 1%, 1.5% growth on your base business and the rest coming from Sanofi.

No, I think just to clarify, we're saying our base business ex FCM is growing 6.5% year-to-date would have been higher by another 5% in now for FCM. And of course, Sanofi, of part year adds. So Satish, I don't know if you want to disclose the first.

Yes. So if I look at organic, including FCM and all, our growth would have been closer to about 1% to 2%, which ex FCM is about 6.5%.

All right. Right. So I mean, given that this has been an unusually weak year for acute, I mean it's a departure from the past growth in the acute segment. But is it reasonable to assume that this is the new normal in acute? Or do you feel that come next year, we might see a recovery in the market itself? And how should then, again, we think of Emcure's portfolio in the domestic market from a growth perspective next year?

So I'll start up and then Satish can add up more. So I think acute this year has been a bit weaker. Our view is that we should see some pickup going forward next year. And I think for us, internally, what we're working on is that is where some of the new initiatives and the product pipeline that we are working on to drive out the new growth, right? So what we have done from derma side or the ophthal launches or even expanding out our white spaces in the women's health or even the diabetes side and oncology side to give us drive better than industry growth going forward. So that is going to be the target for us.

Our strategy will be that as far as the segments in which we are present, we would like to have growth which is in line with the industry, maybe 50, 100 basis points more than the industry. But at the same time, to grow more, we will be focusing on the areas going to say, derma, I'm bullish about it, ophthalmology or even for that going forward, oncology will hear a lot from our end. So that's the way we will go about. So basically, whatever base business we have has growth, which is in line with industry that needs to be fixed up. That is something I told you in my initial remark. And apart from that, focus on ophthalmology, dermatology and double down on, say, your oncology, that is the strategy that my company will be pursuing by which we'll be having growth which is better than the industry average. And as far as [indiscernible] is concerned, anyone's guess, I agree with Piyush, it should happen. But at the same time, if you look at the trends for the generic is possibly making inroads in acute because shifting to generic in acute because the treatment is typically for 5, 6, 7 days, it's possibly going to happen. Whereas chronic, once people are on a particular medication, they are reluctant or hesitant to change. This is my personal observation. I don't have any data to substantiate this, but that's a trend that I have been watching from a distance.

Is it also possible to bifurcate your domestic sales to your subsidiary divisions also, Gennova and the other one which in acute and your own portfolio.

You're asking for the bifurcation of domestic between Gennova, Zuventus now?

Yes, yes. Gennova, Zuventus and Emcure separately.

I don't think we're breaking that out because there's a lot of that. So annually, when you have the annual numbers, you'll have that. But I think there's a lot of inter that we have in there.

I mean if it's difficult to enumerate at least qualitatively or rank order wise, is it possible to give some flavor or some idea of how growth would have been for this.

So I think -- if I look at it, so a lot of the Gennova -- sorry, if you look at it for us, Zuventus is largely an acute portfolio. Most of the semi-chronic and chronic is in the [indiscernible] side. So the [indiscernible] better out versus the Zuventus side. The Gennova portfolio gets mixed out where it fits in that sense.

And for the Sanofi basket, how is the sales accounted for? Do you net off what you have to pay in terms of sourcing cost to Sanofi and then report the sales? Or do you report the sales at ASP and then net out everything else in the cost line?

Yes. So basically, the net sales is booked in our sales. And then whatever we buy the product from Sanofi, that comes at your COGS level.

Okay. And sequentially, why has the gross margins come down further from 2Q to 3Q?

2Q to 3Q is largely a mix driven between one is the international versus domestic and between the product itself in the international segment.

And if I go back to your Q2 commentary, I think there was an indication that margins would sequentially keep improving. But from 2Q to 3Q, there is a drop. How should we -- I mean, how should we think of Q4 and thereafter starting from here?

Sure. So yes, I think for the current quarter, there was slightly lower, largely because our domestic, as we said, has been -- was a bit muted out there. So that led to the decline that you are seeing Q-o-Q. I think going forward, we should see some improvement in the margin going forward. But I said, I think for the full year, we'll end between that 18.5% to 19%...

Okay. Okay. I would presume that's bringing it down a notch from where you had originally pegged it. Would that be a fair assessment?

Yes. I think what we had indicated earlier was including the other income, about 20%, which would have been closer to about 19%, slightly lower, 18.5% to 19% is what we're now talking about.

And other income has also come down very sharply in the quarter. Any reason for that?

So that's largely because there's a ForEx loss of about INR 7 crores, which is there, which is impacting us.

And last quarter, there was a sale of an asset, which shows the other income.

Okay. Okay. All right. And on semaglutide, since you are very strong in Canada and semaglutide goes off patent in the Canadian market also just about at the time, if I understand it correctly, broadly around the time it goes off in India. Would you be there in the Canadian market, semaglutide?

We're definitely going to be filing our product in the Canadian market. But at this time, the way the time lines are looking, it is unlikely that we will make it in the first phase. It will probably be in the second wave once some of the other patents have also expired.

Okay. That would be how further out from the first?

I would expect anywhere between 8 to 12 months.

All right. All right. All right. All right. And semaglutide, I mean, while there's this talk about this being such a large market, once generic entry is there, I'm presuming there will be price erosion and fairly steep price erosion because it's a product where everyone is very interested to get in. Given that circumstance and given also the circumstance that from a pricing perspective, it may not shoot the wallet of a fairly large chunk of the Indian population. How do you think of the uptake of semaglutide? And third obvious point is that the innovators are also not talking of preempting generic entry and coming in with their own product in the market sooner. So between all of these three, how do you see this market unfolding over its launch in India?

Sure. So today, the price expectation is not really set, right, because the product is -- though approved in India has never been made available, and I'm speaking specifically of the two injectable products. So in that context, I think the price will be determined by enter. It should also be said that the API is quite complex. So while there could be many brands, but in terms of number of companies making and especially like Emcure being vertically integrated, are likely to be limited. So there, we should be able to have a cost advantage. We actually see the entry or the availability by the innovators as very positive because, a, it will also set a price expectation, but b, innovator will be able to shape and create a much larger market. And also since we're getting so many additional indications approved, the total market size in India should grow larger. And at the end of the day, like we said a couple of times earlier as well, if you have the right trained field force with the doctor connects already present, you will have a head start. So I think across these three or four parameters, Emcure is quite well positioned to have a reason to win.

Okay. Final two questions from my side. One is, are you backward integrated on semaglutide? Will you be doing your own API in this? And Second is, can you also give the PCPM for the third quarter and also compare it Q-o-Q and Y-o-Y?

So semaglutide, we will be vertically integrated. In fact, the APIs already developed in R&D, and we have given the samples to our formulation team for the development as well.

On the PCPM for the quarter, we were at about 6.1% versus last year at about 5.6%.

And on 2Q, what -- I think the number was closer to 6.5%, 6.6%, if I remember it correctly.

Yes.

The next question is from the line of Alankar Garude from Kotak Institutional Equities.

Sir, firstly, do we have 100% stake in the derma subsidiary?

Yes, yes.

Okay. So we have not given any equity to the management team, the new management team.

No.

Okay. Secondly, can you provide the broad breakup of the $65 million, $70 million annual ARV sales, which we'll be doing broadly in FY '25 across various agencies?

So I think it's mostly going to be the South Africa business and the global..

I mean just to answer your question because I know from where you were trending, Alankar, the dependence on a [indiscernible] fund is very, very limited.

A couple of million of dollar.

2.4, 2.5 to be precise. So there is no dependence on the [indiscernible]. So to that extent, I think that business is not really going to be affected by whatever decisions through the Trump administration is taking. But at the same time, I'm sure you must have read that this brand has been restored as far as HIV is concerned. That also you must have read. But our dependence is practically negligible.

Understood, sir. That's helpful. And maybe a final one, you spoke about the 5-year plan involving R&D, M&A, in-licensing. So possible to elaborate a bit on this? What does this entail? Is this specific to India or exports also is a big part of this 5-year plan?

So I think what Satish bhai highlighted is that we are looking at a more 5-year corporate level plan, which includes both India and international. As we have earlier said, I think for us, the focus more from an M&A perspective, especially a large ticket is going to be India. And similarly, in-licensing, I think India remains open. I think on international, we already do a lot of in-licensing work, especially in Canada and U.K. markets where we have quite a strong presence. But where we're looking at more big ticket items, it's going to be India that we look at.

Okay. And anything you want to highlight on R&D? I mean, currently, we would be spending, say, about $10 million, $15 million on biologics, biosimilars R&D, if I'm not mistaken. So any plans to increase spends on biologics, biosimilars going forward? Or any other differentiating areas within R&D, which you would like to highlight?

So our R&D spend is around that 4% to 5%. And I think even going forward, that is what we look at. And this includes the spend which we are doing on biologics, even some of the differentiated products and all. Because if you look at it, given the type of business, R&D ideally, if you look at peers, it's lower, but the type of work that we do, it leads to about 4% to 5%, and that's what we'd like to maintain.

The next question is from the line of Bharat Shah from ASK Investment Managers.

Just wanted to understand the debt and cash levels.

Debt is close to INR 600 crores today, net debt.

Gross is INR 800 crores, and INR 200 crore is cash and net debt is INR 600 crores.

And when do we think we will become or likely to become free of debt?

So outside of any sort of M&A, et cetera, we think that probably within the next couple of quarters, there should be enough free cash flow generation to pare down INR 600 crores of debt, next 2 to 3 quarters max.

March '26, are we likely to be clear the [indiscernible] debt? Is that what you are seeing?

Yes. From internal cash flow generation, yes. To the extent that there's any sort of M&A opportunity, obviously, that number could change.

Subject to M&A or any other such action, other than that, we should be net cash balance sheet as on March 26?

Yes, yes. Yes.

There are no more questions, we can end the call now.

Sir, we have one question in the queue.

Okay. We can take one last question.

Yes. This is from Gagan Thareja from ASK Investment.

One question on Canada. While this year, the number will look strong because of the acquisition. Is it possible to give some idea of how the like-for-like growth in Canada would have been in the quarter? And how should we think of this geography, ROW and Europe come FY '26? And also, if you could talk a little on Tenectase, how do you see that product evolving?

I'll take a part of your question vis-a-vis some sort of high-level guidance on the various components of the international business. So we think that Canada will continue to grow a very healthy double digits, mid-teens sort of profile on a base business with the acquisition fully absorbed. Piyush, you may have a specific number for like-for-like for the quarter. I think it was as much...

Like-to-like is about 25%.

About 25-ish percent for the quarter. But we think that once we have the benefit of having cross-pollinated the portfolios, a mid-teens sort of growth profile is what we're targeting for the Canadian market. For Europe, as you heard from a muted low single-digit growth, we'll be targeting a high single-digit growth for Europe. And then for the emerging markets outside of the ARV segment, where we think that will obviously be relatively flattish, the non-ARVs will continue to grow fairly well for us. I think it should be in the ballpark of about aiming for 20% sort of growth profile of that business.

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.

So thank you all for joining today's investor call. If any of your queries still remain unanswered, please feel free to get in touch with us. You can write to us at [email protected]. Thank you, and have a good night.

Thank you. On behalf of Emcure Pharmaceuticals Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.