emeis Société anonyme (EMEIS) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hello, and welcome to the emeis Q1 2025 Revenue Conference Call, hosted by Jean-Marc Boursier, CFO; and Samuel Henry-Diesbach, Investor Relations Director. Please note this conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand you over to Jean-Marc Boursier to begin today's conference. Thank you.

Good morning to all of you, and thank you very much for attending this conference call related to emeis' business activity and revenue at the end of March 2025. I'm Jean-Marc Boursier, and before answering with Samuel Henry-Diesbach all the questions you may have, I would like to share with you a few words about our activity and revenue for Q1. As you may have already seen in the press release published this morning, the first quarter of the year is part of the continued improvement trend that began to take shape during 2024. We, therefore, see this as a confirmation of what we consider to be a favorable momentum, both in terms of occupancy rate and sales across all our businesses and all our geographies where we do operate. I'm going to share a few comments, and I will make reference to a presentation, a short presentation, PowerPoint presentation that is also on our website, and you can have access to it. On Page 2, occupancy rates, a favorable momentum is confirmed with a further improvement of 2 points versus Q1 '24. The group average occupancy rate now stood at 87% versus 85% in Q1 last year. And this could even be raised to almost 88% if excluding facilities that were opened only recently. As you can see on this slide, the regular improvement we have delivered on these metrics, occupancy rates have indeed increased by almost 1 point every 6 months since the beginning of 2022, regularly growing from 81% in H1 2022 to 87% in Q1 2025. The recovery is driven by nursing homes for which average occupancy rates are now reaching 86.4% in Q1. This is an improvement of 2.1 points in 1 year and 4.6 points in 2 years. Occupancy have improved everywhere, as you can see on Page 3, especially in Northern Europe, plus 3 points; in Central Europe, plus 2.6 points; and in France by 1.7 points. Only Southern Europe and LatAm is showing a slight decrease, but this is exclusively due to new large facilities that were opened at the end of 2024 with, to date, lower occupancy ratio than mature ones. If excluding these ramp-up assets, occupancy rate on mature perimeter would have reached almost 92%, back to pre-COVID standards. A quick focus on our two major markets, France and Germany on Page 4. This shows the momentum remains strong and steady in Germany with occupancy being approximately 300 points above previous year with every quarter above the previous one, as you can see, since the beginning of 2024 and again in Q1 this year. In France, the recovery momentum started later during the second quarter of last year. But since then, it has accelerated quarters after quarters, thus feeding our confidence, although absolute levels for occupancy in France are still well below normative levels that we should be able to target progressively. In terms of sales, I am on Page 5. Our top line is up 6.2% organically, reflecting the gradual recovery following the measures that we've taken in the last 24 months. The three underlying components of the organic growth are all favorably orientated. First, a positive price effect, adding 3.7% to organic growth; second, an average occupancy rate up by 2 points over the period, as I just said, contributing to plus 1.8% to organic growth; and finally, the contribution from recently opened facility in 2024 for plus 0.8%. It is interesting to note that the positive dynamic on organic growth is driven mostly first by nursing homes, which top line is up 9.7% versus last year and by European markets growing at around 10%. In details, on Page 6, please note that this strong European performance benefited from a significant price impact, especially in Germany and Belgium, but also a sharp increase in occupancy, especially in Spain, Germany and Belgium again. In France, the main contributor to growth is also the nursing homes perimeter, delivering organic revenue growth at plus 3.6%. Sales for clinics are mixed feeling, I would say, partly minor in France in the first quarter of 2025 that were decreasing organically by 2.7%. Half of this decrease can be attributed to a lower number of full hospitalization days in care facility and which also reduced the volume of business generated by private rooms and half is due to nonrecurring income that we benefited in the first quarter of 2024. This effect of nonrecurring items on growth is, however, expected to be diluted over the course of the year. And finally, on Page 7, I would like to say a few words about our disposal program. At the end of March 2025 and since mid of 2022, more than EUR 1 billion of disposal have now been either already finalized or are today secured. This is more than EUR 100 million more than at the end of 2024. These disposals include EUR 171 million of operating assets of OpCo, now fully closed since the 31st of March, but also EUR 270 million of PropCo assets, which are under preliminary firm agreement, for which EUR 160 million cash is to be received before year-end. We clearly maintain our ambition to reach EUR 1.5 billion of disposal from mid-'22 to the end of 2025, leaving around EUR 600 million still to be cashed in before year-end. To do so, as you know, more than EUR 2 billion of potential disposal, PropCo and OpCo are currently under discussion between emeis and several potential buyers, demonstrating both the dynamism of emeis' teams and the growing appetite of investors for healthcare assets. These ongoing discussions far exceed the remaining target to be achieved by the end of the year, and that gives the group considerable room for maneuver in the execution of this program. Discussion on the various potential disposal are proceeding according to the group's planned timetable. As a conclusion on Page 8, we do reiterate our guidance for 2025. The major shortfall situation we see for the years ahead gives emeis solid visibility for the mid-to-long term, given the massive lack of nursing homes bed supply to be expected ahead and the capacity of the group -- that the group should have to answer those future needs. In the shorter term, the trajectory of operational recovery is confirmed, particularly since the second half of 2024. This trend will continue into 2025 under the combined effects of an upturn in occupancy rate, the capture of favorable price effect and a better control of our operating expenses. The promising trend expected for 2025 seem to have indeed been confirmed after the first 3 months of the year. As a result, in 2025, as a reminder, the group expects EBITDAR to rise between plus 15% and plus 18% on the like-for-like basis, therefore, excluding the effect of OpCo disposal in 2025, thereby extending and accentuating the performance improvement momentum initiated in recent quarters. Thank you very much for your attention. And now we are available with Samuel to answer all the questions you may have.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Christophe-Raphael Ganet from ODDO.

Actually, I have several, if I may. So the first one will relate to the comments you had on clinics in France. Is it possible to come back on this nonrecurring effect we've observed last year and that's having a negative effect on Q1? And is there any remediation effect? Or what can you do about the billings of individual rooms? So that's the first question. The second one relates to the price effect. So we have noticed the price you've mentioned. How do you see it evolve -- evolving during the year? Should it be stable? Should it grow slightly because we will see a specific effect on some countries? And the third question relates to the disposals you've announced this morning. Is it possible to come back on the conditions, I mean, multiples, cap rate and those figures and elements that you can provide, it will be helpful.

Thank you for your question. On the clinic side, I mean, the nonrecurring item I was referring to were related to some additional subsidies that were provided to us by the French state last year without any equivalent this year. So I mean, we are negotiating hard with the state. But as you know, there is very little we can do. There is a second comment you made on private rooms. This is fair to say that we were a little bit disappointed by the amount of private rooms that we were able to sell to our customers in Q1. But the team are fully dedicated to make sure that this trend will improve quarter after quarter. Your second question was regarding price effect. I mean, we are almost at 4% in terms of price effect. So this is not so far away from the amount of price that we enjoyed in 2024. I remind you, it was 4.8%. So we continue with the same strategy. We try to be as aggressive as possible in France and in every country. So it's difficult to tell you that we will remain around 4% for the quarters to come. But in any case, the price escalation is clearly a key focus of the group. And this is why we have actively renovated some of our rooms to be able to improve prices gradually. And if I dare to say our bargaining power in terms of price will also be improved as long as occupancy rates are improved. But clearly, the price is totally in line with our strategy going forward. Your third question was regarding disposal. Those are exclusively real estate in Q1, namely sale and leaseback transactions signed in France and in the Netherlands. Some of them will be cashed in, in 2025, some of them slightly after. And I'm not going to give you any P&L impact at this stage. The focus is, as you have understood, revenue and occupancy. But let me tell you that the implied average cap rate is slightly above 6%.

The next question comes from the line of Constantin Gumenita from Caius Capital.

I'd like to go back to the clinics business in France and just to understand a little bit better. So when I'm looking at the numbers, you've reported organic revenue decline of minus 2.7%. At the same time, there's an occupancy increase of roughly 2%. So it implies that pricing and mix is minus 4% or so, I think, when adjusted for the one-off effect that you mentioned. So is that the right way to think about it? Or am I missing something? And can you comment a little bit better on how much of that minus 4% is actual pricing versus the private room element that you mentioned?

Your analysis is on the face of it factual. But I would need to give you a little bit more explanation on the way we compute the occupancy rate. And you have a footnote in the press release on Page 4 out of 7 in this respect. The occupancy rate is computed not based on authorized bed but on commercialized bed. And as a matter of fact, because of the lack of some doctors in some clinics, we have been forced to slightly reduce the amount of beds that were offered to our customers by roughly 300. If we had computed the occupancy rate, not only on commercialized bed, but on authorized bed, the occupancy rate for clinics in France would have been stable. And this is an explanation why you cannot bridge properly from plus 2% in occupancy rate versus minus 2.7% in organic growth. The major component is what I've explained to you in terms of nonrecurring element of revenue that were granted to us by the French state in 2024. But again, the growth will be driven primarily in the years to come or in the quarters to come with private rooms, and our team are fully dedicated to make sure that the upward trend in terms of private rooms will go up again in the quarters to come.

Okay. And when I look at the clinics business overall, not just France, but I think the majority of it is France anyway, I think in the first quarter, you had 1.4% growth organically -- sorry, 0.6% growth organically. At the same time, when I look at somebody like Clariane, they had 1.4%. So do you have a sense for what's driving this underperformance? I assume that they receive the same subsidies that you did last year. So it must be something else.

No, I'm not going to comment too much the comparison with Clariane. As you know, a key focus for us is access to staff -- to medical staff. And this is something that we will focus on the years to come just to make sure that we have the relevant staff everywhere that would feed the growth going forward. But I will not comment the comparison with Clariane, I'm sorry.

I'm not sure I do totally understand your question because when we do compare the figures, we can't talk about underperformance. And in terms of occupancy mostly, the improvement even in France is a bit stronger for this quarter.

We currently have no questions coming through [Operator Instructions]. We have a follow-up question from Christophe-Raphael Ganet from ODDO.

Can you hear me?

We can hear you clearly. Yes, go ahead.

Sorry for that. So I was -- I had a follow-up question on the next quarters. The question is in two parts, actually. Is it possible to have a timing for the next openings of beds for the next quarters, first? And secondly, with this plus 6.2% organic growth, should we consider that it is a minimum now for -- at a constant scope, obviously, it is a minimum for the next quarter given what you said around the efforts you will do and focus on France and Netherlands clinics? Or how should we see going forward, this 6% plus 2% organic growth?

On the first question, Samuel, what can we say about new openings? As you know, we have clearly reduced the development of the group. We have reduced development CapEx and the amount of new openings is only focused on a few countries and a few countries only, namely Germany, Spain and Netherlands. So is 0.8% to 1% a good proxy for the full year, I guess, yes. It was 1.8% last year, but I would feel comfortable with 1% overall. On the organic growth of the year, obviously, we take no commitment on organic growth. So we are particularly satisfied with the performance of the quarter, both in terms of occupancy rate. Frankly speaking, to be able to grow occupancy rate by 2% in 1 quarter is not too bad in our opinion and also in terms of revenue. But are we going to consider that this 6.2% is a strict minimum and that we can only do better for the quarters to come? I wouldn't dare to say that, but you have to take it as it is, and we will see quarter after quarter how it goes. I cannot say in absolute term. It's a floor. We'll see.

There are no further questions. So I hand back over to you, hosts, to conclude today's conference.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for your attention. Obviously, Samuel and I will remain at your disposal should you have any further questions in the future. But thank you for having attended this Q1 conference call for emeis Group. Thanks a lot, and speak to you soon.

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.