Enagás, S.A. (ENG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning and thank you very much for joining us today for the presentation of our strategic plan for the period 2022-2030. Thanks also to those who have connected via streaming. I'm accompanied by the Chief Financial Officer of Enagás, Luis Romero; the General Manager of Energy Transition, Natalia Latorre, the General Manager for Communications, Public Affairs and Investor Relations, Felisa Martin; and the General Manager for Investor Relations, Cesar Garcia. We also have in the room with us are the members of Enagás' management team. To start with, I will speak for about 30 minutes, and then we will allow questions, which we will answer in as much detail as possible. The document -- the presentation document is available on our website, www.enagas.es, which today has a new look and new functionalities with the aim of making it easier to browse and access the company's information. Today is an important day for Enagás. After a few months of intense work, we share with you a strategic plan with clear objectives: first of all, to adapt the company to a new global context and a new energy paradigm; to anticipate in order to be prepared to meet all of the challenges arising from the new context and from European commitments in terms of decarbonization and security of supply; thirdly, to restart a growth path for the company, which had reached a phase of maturity; fourthly, to base our growth on projects in our core business, mainly in Europe with a clear focus arising from the opportunities that renewable gases, and particularly green hydrogen represent for Enagás; fifthly, to approach this stage in the company with a solid base with the confidence provided by the European framework, the regulation and decarbonization and in which we have also taken into account the variables associated with such a broad horizon. This robustness -- the robustness of our projections can be seen in both the assumptions incorporated in our plan and the realization of the investments foreseen. In this presentation, we will give you more details about these objectives and our areas of action for this decade, aligning ourselves with the EU strategic scenario. And we will share with you more specific financial projections for the period from now to 2026. We do so using the slogan Reliable Energy for a Decarbonized Future. This sums up the purpose of the entire Enagás team to continue contributing to the availability of reliable energy for society whilst accelerating its progress towards a decarbonized future in Europe. In this complex energy and strategic context, Spain and Enagás can make a decisive contribution to Europe's security of supply. Today, I would say that in an exceptional way, in a dramatic way, the supply of energy to Europe is in the spotlight. And this represents a business opportunity for us, but it is also a responsibility at this moment in history. These are the 2 main pillars of the new European energy paradigm and of Enagás' purpose: the security of supply and decarbonization. And to this new paradigm, the European Green Deal has contributed significantly followed by the so-called Fit for 55; and this year, as a result of the war in Ukraine, REPowerEU, a European plan to reduce dependence on Russia and speed up the energy transition. The new Enagás strategic plan repositions the company in order to be able to contribute to these objectives in Spain and in Europe. Greater European resilience and independence requires integration of the energy system through infrastructure. And here, Enagás and the Spanish gas system will play a key role in collaboration with other European TSOs. Therefore, Europe and REPowerEU are setting us on a very clear path with 2 main lanes of -- lines of action. First of all, the diversification of energy sources and a commitment to efficiency. This includes the ambitious goal of reducing, until eventually eliminating, dependence on Russian gas by diversifying sources; developing EU purchases of gas, LNG and hydrogen; as well as improving the resilience of the energy system with more interconnections. The lever for this goal of European market integration will be hydrogen-ready natural gas infrastructures. In other words, ready to transport hydrogen. I would like to highlight that of the 3 major linear natural gas infrastructures identified by REPowerEU, Enagás is positioned in 2 of them: expansion of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline and an offshore pipeline between Spain and Italy. A second line of action is the promotion of the energy transition. Renewable hydrogen will play a key role in Europe with consumption reaching 20 million tons in the EU by 2030 according to REPowerEU, and half of these could be imported. REPowerEU for this purpose envisages a hydrogen backbone network with 3 external corridors towards the EU and 3 internal corridors within the EU itself, highlighting amongst them an Iberian hydrogen corridor with a new Pyrenean interconnection, which will be complementary to a corridor in North Africa. It is clear that Enagás will have a main role in the development of this corridor. Overall, REPowerEU will represent an additional EUR 210 billion of investment estimated by Fit for 55 for the period 2022 to 2027. The materialization of REPowerEU is supported by initiatives such as the European hydrogen backbone, in which 31 European TSOs are taking part, including Enagás, and which promotes the development of a network of hydrogen corridors in Europe. A network based on reusing existing gas infrastructures at a level of between 60% and 75% in order for the process to be competitive and efficient. In Europe, these infrastructures are currently managed by transmission system operators, the TSOs, TSOs such as Enagás which has 50 years' experience in gas transmission networks and in managing a very powerful infrastructure system with a robustness that endorses us. We operate more than 12,000 kilometers of gas pipelines, and we are the third-largest country in the world in terms of the number of LNG plants. It is the TSOs who are, therefore, best placed in Europe to adapt these infrastructures to hydrogen and to facilitate the materialization of new ones as necessary. The current proposal for EU legislation envisages a centralized hydrogen infrastructure in Europe by 2030, managed by what are called the hydrogen network operators, HNOs, and it is envisaged that TSOs will be able to play this role. This makes us a key figure in order to carry out the objectives of REPowerEU. In short, Enagás is a benchmark TSO in Europe, and our strategic plan also positions us as a benchmark HNO in the 2030 horizon, by boosting the development of renewable gases, mainly green hydrogen, and by making a significant contribution to the security of supply of Europe's energy system. Together with the critical importance of gas infrastructures, our strategic plan is built on the conviction that Europe will carry out its commitment to the creation of a genuine market for renewable gases. I am convinced that this will be the case. Firstly because Europe has the industrial capacity necessary to do so. The European Commission has estimated that the annual electrolyzer manufacturing capacity in Europe will reach between 10 and 17 gigawatts in the 2025-2030 period. And secondly, because there are learning curves and economies of scale, which are going to bring down the price of hydrogen, making it competitive with other energy sources sooner than expected. As you can see in the presentation, the price could stand at EUR 2.1 per kilo in 2030. And even in a less optimistic scenario, it would be EUR 3.8 at current gas prices, and it could already be competitive. And thirdly and above all, because the European Union has the political will and determination to make this happen. And to this end, it is promoting a favorable regulatory context for the creation of a hydrogen market in Europe. For all these reasons, at Enagás, we are convinced that if we have competitive or [indiscernible] non-CO2 emitting energy like green hydrogen and Europe has a political will to promote it, then this will happen. And we are going to be key in this. This is the framework in which we present to you today our 2030 strategy, which is a resilient strategy for long-term sustainable growth. This strategy is fully aligned with what Europe is setting out and has a clear purpose, which I've been talking about since the day I joined Enagás to contribute to the security of supply and decarbonization, which for us are 2 sides of the same coin: creating value, working towards sustainable and profitable growth and focusing on Spain and Europe. This strategic plan with the 2030 horizon covers a period in which regulation will be extremely important. As you know, we have a stable regulatory framework until 2026. And already, we are working actively to anticipate the new energy model because from 2027 onwards, the regulatory basis for new renewable gas networks, especially hydrogen, will be put in place. With a view to this new regulatory framework, it is essential to work now on an integrated plan for electricity, gas and hydrogen networks. In addition to the Spanish regulatory framework, we consider it a priority to contribute with our vision of the TSO and HNO to the definition of the European regulatory framework. I anticipate that Enagás will be increasingly present in Brussels and in European capitals. In this 2030 strategy, our growth pillars will be 4: gas and hydrogen infrastructures and adjacent businesses; innovation, technology and digitalization; international development; and the activity and projects of our subsidiary, Enagás Renovable. Most of the investments included in this strategic plan have a business model that is currently regulated or will be regulated in the near future or will have contracts that will guarantee a security of the returns comparable to that of regulated activity. The investment plan included in the company's financial forecast for the period 2022-2030 amounts to EUR 2,775 million. In addition, we included the plan the interconnection infrastructure projects that we have submitted on June 24 to the 10-year network development plan, the TYNDP, that have been developed jointly with the TSOs of neighboring countries and foreseen in REPowerEU. This brings the total investment figure up to EUR 4,755 million till 2030. These interconnection projects are needed for a real integration of the European energy market and are currently under proposal and analysis to be approved by regulators. In March 2023, the list of projects, including the reopen plan, is expected to be published. We believe it is advisable to wait for the process to be finished and to know the final list of infrastructures as well as the formulas foreseen for the execution, financing and subsidies of the projects in order to include them into our forecast -- financial forecast. I will now detail each of the 4 main lines of action. First, gas and hydrogen infrastructures and adjacent businesses, including gas and transition infrastructures, that is everything linked to the maintenance and extension of the life cycle efficiency and safety of the gas system and starting and adapting the El Musel plant as a logistics center. A big part of this investment block is linked to CapEx, which are regulated investments with a remuneration scheme that is well known by the market. It also includes adapting infrastructures for energy transition, blending, emission reduction plan to achieve carbon neutrality by 2040 or biomethane connections. For these gas infrastructures and transition, we estimate an investment of EUR 850 million, out of which EUR 470 million will correspond to the period 2022-2026. In this first axle, we also include the REPowerEU infrastructures that we have presented to the 10-year network development plan, which are the third connection in the Pyrenees, the Spain Llewo offshore gas pipeline; and the third, interaction with Portugal, which, as I mentioned, we will include into our projection in due course. This would entail a total investment for Enagás of up to EUR 1,180 million. This figure does not include potential subsidies for such projects or nonrecourse financing that would be available for such infrastructures. In terms of renewable hydrogen infrastructures, we have included both the development of storage capacity, which is essential in a centralized hydrogen system, as well as our main projects that are still to be developed. We have only included those that are at a very advanced stage and that cover the entire value chain, including the final demand for hydrogen that has already been identified for industrial use, such as HyDeal, Asturias and Castellón and the Catalina Project in Aragon and Valencia, which add up 600 kilometers of new hydrogen pipelines. For these hydrogen infrastructures, we foresee an investment of EUR 690 million, out of which EUR 235 million would be invested after 2026. According to the draft European regulations, these Enagás projects, these infrastructures, would become -- sorry, will become regulated no later than 2030. As far as business case and to our core business, well, they are linked to the use of LNG in sectors that are very difficult to decarbonize such as maritime transport as well as the development of small-scale and banking activities and also the use of renewable gases in sectors such as mobility, for example, through hydrogen stations. It involves a total investment of EUR 240 million, out of which EUR 185 million for the period 2022-2026. Second axle of growth is innovation, technology and digitalization. That will include, amongst others, innovation projects, including our participation in the Hy24 and Klima funds. The development of new technologies linked to adapting infrastructures to renewable gases to be ready -- or technically ready to act as an HNO, disruptive digital technologies for the efficiency and decarbonization of our processes and operations, and the start-up ecosystem in which we participate with new business models that drive energy transition and energy efficiency. We will invest EUR 105 million in this project, out of which EUR 90 million corresponds to the period 2022-2026. The third axle is growth in international development. In this 2030 plan, we placed Europe as a clear strategic focus of our investment plan with projects that are part of the Mediterranean cargo, which highlight Enagás' industrial role and involve strategic alliances with partners and neighboring countries that will contribute to security of supply and decarbonization. This is the case of the expansion of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline tab, which will almost double its capacity up to 20 bcms a year; also the new projects of our subsidiary, thus far in Greece, all the infrastructures that we can develop in Albania on the basis of the agreement we signed a couple of weeks ago with Albanian TSO, AlbGaz. And of course, we will continue to manage our asset portfolio in the United States and Latin America to maximize the value for our shareholders. For these international projects, we are forecasting an investment of EUR 600 million until 2030, out of which EUR 150 million will be invested between now and 2026. In the case of the United States, which is a key country in the supply of gas to Europe right now, we are present through Tallgrass Energy. In the first months of 2022, the company has had a high level of contracting and asset utilization. Tallgrass foresees a very significant investment in the short and midterm with major decarbonization projects. All these projects will be financed by the company's cash generation, prioritizing the growth plan and investments over the distribution of dividends between 2022 and 2025... wants to analyze Tallgrass projections with our partner, Blackstone, and also with our advisers and auditors, we consider an estimated impairment of our investment in Tallgrass of between EUR 130 million and EUR 140 million. We are pending the -- finalizing with the auditor. This impairment stems from a cautious view of the expected returns on these new Tallgrass investments as well as rising interest rates, which have an impact both on the discount rate used in the impairment test as well as on the company's financial costs. Fourth line of action is the one we carry out through Enagás Renovable. In the coming days during July, we will close the transaction that we announced in February. We will entry -- well, the entry of Clean H2 Infra Fund, an impact fund managed by Hy24, which is a joint venture between Ardian and FiveT Hydrogen. We will -- with a 30% stake in Enagás Renovable. And in the presentation, you can see details of our portfolio of 50 projects for the production and commercialization of renewable gases, hydrogen and biomethane that we have already mentioned previously, and all of them with reference partners. For these projects, we foresee a total investment for Enagás of EUR 290 million between now and 2030, EUR 170 million in the period 2022 until 2026. You have more details in the presentation of the projects, including these for last sections. And I will be happy to answer any questions you may have about them during the Q&A session. And I will now talk about the financial forecast between 2022 and 2026. In this period, we will intensify our efficiency plan with the objective of minimizing the impact of inflation on the company's manageable costs. This plan involves further increasing our high level of operational efficiency and includes measures such as the exhaustive control of corporate expenses and the optimization that has already started off our management structure. Enagás' operating cost structure and the implementation of this efficiency plan will limit to 1% the increase of operating costs between 2022 and 2026. Having this efficiency base, the main indicators of our strategic plan with a 2026 horizon. First, investments of up to EUR 1.3 billion, not included the aforementioned REPowerEU interconnection projects. We go from being a mature company to going back to a growth path, which is consolidated in the second period of this strategic plan with an average adjusted EBITDA growth of 2% until 2030. Growth will accelerate in the second part of this period. Between 2026 and 2030, it will reach an average of 4% a year. We're still committed with our dividend policy. We will increase it by 1% in 2022 and 2023, and we'll keep it at EUR 1.74 per share until 2026. Shareholder remuneration remains a strategic priority for Enagás. And we will also keep our commitment with rating agencies and our credit metrics, including a ratio of funds from operation to net debt above 14%. And to do that, we will systematically monitor the investment plan over the period, choosing the optimal financing elements according to market conditions. We will evaluate, if needed, the incorporation of hybrid financial instruments or other alternatives. Both the investment plan we have detailed and the return to our shareholders are guaranteed by the solid cash generation we will have during this period, which you can see in the chart on the presentation. The financial starting point with which we began the strategic plan is excellent. We saw 2022 with liquidity of EUR 3.3 billion, which will give us peace of mind to face debt maturities in the short and medium term. As for the main figures for 2022, and taking into account everything I just mentioned, we expect a net profit of between EUR 380 million and EUR 390 million. This figure already includes the capital gains that stem from operations in our asset rotation process that are pending final closures, such as sale of our stake in GNL Quintero in Chile and Gasoducto Morelos in Mexico and the entry of Clean H2 Infra Fund in Enagás Renovable as well as the impairment in Tallgrass Energy. I would like to end by talking about sustainability and transformation, clear hallmark of Enagás. As you know, we have a very strong ESG profile, and we have been making significant progress in all the 3 areas for me and for all of Enagás. What we are proud to be able to say that we are an energy company that has reduced its CO2 emissions by 54% in the past 8 years; a company that has also specified its commitment to people to maintaining the jobs we've got and with the diversity and inclusion policy, which already has 40% of women on its Board of Directors and 33% in the Executive Committee and which will continue to make progress in terms of equal opportunities at all the levels of the company. This commitment and action in ESG have led us to a leading position in the world's main sustainability indexes in the world. And our objective is to keep on improving even further with this strategic plan. We also present our sustainability and transformation roadmap. In terms of sustainability, certainties of that road map is our commitment to be carbon-neutral by 2040. In the presentation, you can see both the emission mitigation [indiscernible] we have established and as well as our targets for 2026, which include a 34% reduction in our CO2 emissions compared to 4 years ago. I'd like to remind you that we have raised our ambition by asserting ourselves on indirect emission reduction target of Scope 3. In terms of transformation, that's the lever that together with our 50 years of knowledge and experience will allow us to play a relevant role in the present and in the future. We will keep on increasing our agility, advancing in digitalization, and we will focus on cybersecurity. We're going to manage talent in a more strategic way. And in general, we will make our culture evolve while keeping public service objective. Among our objectives for 2026, we include investing 2% a year in digitalization, focusing basically on cybersecurity, and we will keep high-level commitment of the professionals of Enagás, which is currently at 85%. I will like to finish with 5 short conclusions. First, we are a leading TSO in Europe, and we will continue to be so, and we will evolve to become a benchmark HNO, in line with the new energy paradigm. Second, in the new Spanish and European context, we have the responsibility to put our -- to use our capabilities to help Europe meet the energy challenges of the decade. Third, the entry into operation of the investments and plan in this strategic plan change Enagás' profile, and we'll go from a mature company to a growth company. We expect profitable dividend adjusted EBITDA growth of 2% in -- well, between 2022 and 2030 and 4% from 2026 onwards. Fourth, we are entering a new investment cycle. We'll be focusing in Europe to respond to the demands of Green Deal Fit for 55 and REPowerEU. Including all the infrastructures, we will invest up to EUR 4,755 million until 2030. We restated our commitment to shareholder remuneration until 2026. And we are still committed with sustainability, efficiency and transformation as the pillars of a resilient strategy for long-term sustainable and profitable growth. So in short, as a motto today, Reliable Energy for a Decarbonized Future. Thank you very much. Now we hear all you for any questions you may have, and we will answer as -- well, in much detail as possible. And the Investor Relations Director, Cesar Garcia, will moderate the Q&A session.

I had several questions above all related to Page 7 -- 27 of the presentation about generation and what you said compared to February's presentation. I would like to understand with regards the dividends for the subsidiaries, what's changed since the contribution of Tallgrass? At least through to 2025 in terms of dividends will be 0. I was interested to know what other hypotheses have changed when it comes to FFO in terms of core activity and the subsidiaries' dividends. And there's another question related to additional investments, which is over EUR 500 million up to EUR 1.3 billion. If you could give us details about the timing for these investments in the business plan to know whether they would take part in the second half of this period through to 2026 or the distribution -- the linear distribution of those investments, that would be very useful. Also, I noticed that you've talked about the GSP contribution. And if you could explain the reason for that reduction. I'm also interested to hear about when it comes to dividends, what you're talking about in terms of contribution of Tallgrass in 2026. That would be the first question. The second question is related to the capital structure. You mentioned that the company is undertaking a new process for investments. I would like to ask why you've decided to maintain a dividend policy. And how do you see that EBITDA through to 2026? And what the new dividend policy might be or how you see the capital structure most relevantly up to 2030 when a new investment cycle begins? And the last question was whether you could also give us some guidance about the net income of the company in 2026?

Thank you for that question -- or those questions. I will start by referring to the additional investments and how they are scheduled in the first period, the EUR 1.3 billion that I referred to. In 2022, we have understood that there will be a CapEx of EUR 171 million and 182 million in the following year; in '24, EUR 170 million; in 2025, EUR 246 million; and in 2026, EUR 532 million. That's just in -- an indication, obviously, because it will depend on how the projects develop. With regards -- change in considerations regarding GSP, we still have the view of our lawyers -- we're following the view of our lawyers who say that it is likely that Enagás will have a favorable award when it comes to the recovery of the investment. We understand that we have a very robust case from a legal point of view in this arbitration. But first of all, as we know the schedule agreed upon by the arbitration court, we calculate that the award may be given or provided during the first half of 2023. So we estimate that the payment will actually take place in '24 in order to take a cautious approach. As you will know, in these processes, quite often there is a certain delay in the payment actually being made. So in order to be prudent, we have established a period or a consideration of 50% for 2024. We maintain -- or hope to receive 100%, of course. But we have the other 50% as being beyond the horizon of 2030. If we talk about the dividend policy, I would say that for us and for me, it's essential to comply with the commitments undertaken by the company, particularly when these commitments have been acquired with the responsibility towards our shareholders and towards the market. And this includes many small investors who have a savings in the company, and they trust in the company's commitments. So what we have to maintain is this commitment to the -- to what we have undertaken as long as this is possible. And what we have said today shows that we can do this. So something key to me is this commitment to dividend and maintaining the commitment. With regards to the next period, there is a lot of time ahead of us in order to be able to develop a new dividend policy in the future. But then we would take a look at the financial situation, the maturity of the asset portfolio. And of course, above all, we would want to know about the future remunerative system for the regulatory context. Otherwise, it would make no sense to look at the dividend policy. If we talk about EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA for 2026, we have an estimate of EUR 716 million of EBITDA -- adjusted EBITDA. And the BDE -- the adjusted BDE, adjusted by dividends pro forma, that figure would be between EUR 330 million and EUR 360 million, depending on the final schedule for the investments and how they are financed in the end. And this includes the contribution of the latent investments for the period. And if we talk about the forecast dividend for Tallgrass, in 2026, I think it's EUR 144 million. And with regards the funds from operations bridge and also related to the dividends and what we anticipated in February, I shall let the Financial Director answer that question.

Yes. Well, the difference when we talked about EUR 1.373 million back in February, well, the main effects are due to greater investment -- additional investment of EUR 740 million and the cautious approach to the collection of -- from GSP, we've forecast a 50% payment in 2024. And with regards to funds from operation, we expect EUR 180 million, EUR 190 million less due to the higher financing cost of debt and -- greater debt for pending investments. There are obviously some impacts related to EBITDA. Within these flows, as we've heard, since we don't have Tallgrass' dividends container, which would reduce cash by EUR 625 million, but we also have the gains from Quintero. And those what lead us to that figure of EUR 380 million in discretionary cash flow.

Thank you, Javier, for that question. The next one is from JPMorgan, Javier Garrido.

I apologize if this is a little complex because there are a lot of details that I would like to clarify. First of all, when they say on Page 30 of the slide, they talk about work-in-progress adjustment to EBITDA. There is remuneration -- explicit remuneration in that year for that work-in-progress or is that just a way of representing the future contribution of those assets for the following years but still not included in the 2026? And the second question is, what adjustments do you expect for 2022 to 2026? Are you expecting a review of OpEx and CapEx for that period? Are you expecting to see a greater importance of work-in-progress in the remuneration? So what specific changes would you expect before the new regulatory framework in 2026? And I know that you answered Javier already regarding the dividend policy of 2026 onwards. Obviously, that's something that will have to be reviewed in the future. We've got CapEx through to 2030. And I'd like to ask how are you planning to face a situation with the regulator in which the dividend will be above the profit per share of the company and when there is a great need for investment. How do you think the dialogue may work out with the regulator in this situation when there is a need for great investment and the company has a very high dividend? I don't know, maybe whether you could give us a qualitative analysis of the balanced view from 2026 onwards with regards to the dividend policy and CapEx and the demand of the regulator for adjusted remuneration. And also, I'd like to hear more about how Enagás sees the CapEx and dividend policy working beyond 2026? I think that might be the key issue for the progress of the shares in the future.

Thank you, Javier, for the questions. And in response to the first one, EBITDA -- the pro forma adjusted EBITDA that we are offering that we are talking about for 2026 doesn't correspond to specific remuneration, but it will show the pending effect of the investments made through to that year. And with regards regulation that you referred to from different points of view, first of all, we hugely value the importance of having a regulatory framework and remuneratory framework, which is predictable and stable such as the one we have through to 2026. We maintain a dialogue -- a constant dialogue with the regulator. We are subject to the analysis of the regulator. They look at our CapEx -- our OpEx, sorry, forecasts, and we tell them about the infrastructures related to the energy transition. We are talking with the regulator with regards to the remuneratory policy for the Musel plant, for example. So our conversation or dialogue with the regulator is constant and ongoing. But we do not expect to have a review of the regulatory framework for 2022-2026 because the legislation doesn't envisage that. But I would like to stress how clear, transparent and predictable things are for us and for the market when talking about this framework. I would also like to highlight that a very relevant part of our operating costs have protection against investment because it's a pass-through of audited costs, the cost in electricity, because these aspects are included within the reference items for the following regulatory period. But we don't have an adjustment, and we think that this makes our forecast highly predictable. With regards the dividend policy, as you've said, very rightly, we've increased CapEx. How are we going to balance CapEx and dividends? Well, we have shown during the first period how that balance is achieved between CapEx and dividends. With regards the next regulatory period, we understand that there will be important changes, mainly because the new regulatory framework has to include the remuneration of the infrastructure system associated to renewable gases and in particular hydrogen, and this will have to take place -- or will have to include premiums. And we understand that the new framework will include -- or will take into account the profitability of investments, and it should be enough in order to finance CapEx as necessary. We don't see that there will be any contradiction there. But I would insist by saying that the new dividend policy will be the results of everything I've mentioned: the regulatory framework, the necessary CapEx, the maturity of our asset portfolio and the financial conditions. And I am convinced that it's not going to be impossible to match up CapEx and dividends. And as you have said quite rightly, we are going to enter into a more intense investing period.

Thank you very much, Mr. CEO, and thank you for your question. And next question is from Fernando Lafuente from Alantra Equities.

First question is about investments for the REPowerEU plan, especially ones in the first period, ones that you are showing in the presentation. There are about EUR 700 million of latent investments that could be invested between 2022 and 2026. So on those investments, I have 2 questions. First, on the timing. I believe you mentioned something, but I wasn't -- but we don't really know when these rates could be approved. And so when they could become, so to speak, real investment and then how linear the investment would be. If they were approved this year, when would Enagás have to start investing in those assets? And with these investments, and I am just going to try to go back to a dividend, after now, I mean, seeing this cash flow bridges, and you've been reporting on them. We normally have a discretionary cash flow, was above EUR 1 billion back in the day, and it's been dropping. And between 2022 and 2026, discretionary cash flow, it goes -- is at EUR 200 million, the EUR 200 million that you're expecting to get back from GSP. And so the margin you've got compared to previous plans is limited. So in this context, if you have to increase investments or REPowerEU investments are approved, how did this change? So is bank ready to be able to maintain that credit rating? I'm not asking the rest of the variables. So how could that evolve? And second question is on what you provided your CapEx between 2022 and 2026. And it's -- I mean it's a bit surprising to see the interest investment, especially in 2026, which will go up to EUR 532 million. So I would like to know which are the main components of the -- of rising those investments?

Thank you very much for your questions, Fernando. On the investment for the interconnections in REPowerEU, we have submitted 3 proposals. Third interconnection through the period in with France, it's got the first phase for gas between 2025 and 2029 and a second phase, a hydrogen phase, beyond 2030. So same timing for interconnection with Portugal, and we have also submitted the offshore pipeline with Italy. That would start working in 2028 for gas until 2029 and after 2029 with hydrogen. That's the -- that's our idea on capacities and timeline. Of course, all of that is still pending the analyses and modeling and more flows at the European level with either the -- and then so framework and decisions made by member states and European institutions. So the first projects in the pipeline, which are the interconnections with France and Portugal, I must say that they're actually the hardest ones. So we have worked out on engineering and the acquisition of materials and even the acquisition of land to have compression stations. So those are projects that are quite mature. And if they were to be approved, in our opinion, they could start getting -- we can start with the investment after the approval process, which would happen probably 2024, 2024-2025 basically. So these investments are happening towards the end of the period. When do we think these projects could be approved? As I mentioned, we have submitted the projects in the TYNDP forecast in October. There's another window for hydrogen projects. However, in this gas window, we were suggested -- or they suggested us that we could include these hydrogen projects so they can still have a visibility and they can be identified as early as possible. But expectations are that the list of projects will be published in May 2023. And after that, the -- we will see the financial characteristics of those projects, which are the subsidies from the European Union that those projects have access to, depending on whether they're PCI projects or not and how -- and which are the financing instruments for REPowerEU. Now what the European Commission has mentioned that REPowerEU projects are going to be funded basically with the member state plans we think the recuperation of resiliency facility. And member states have to create any chapter within that plan to be able to fund the initiatives and the infrastructures for REPowerEU. And they have planned some additional funding of about EUR 75 million. That could come from selling the CO2 rights that have been stored in all with funds that come from other financial instruments. But that's still to be defined. But we trust that in 2023 we will have clear visibility on the projects and the financial instruments that we can -- that might be available. On the discretional cash flow and its behavior in the past years and its evolution since 2022 -- sorry, February, since February 2022. The difference between the discretional cash flow in February, which was EUR 1.33 billion, and what's included in the plan, which is EUR 218 million, so it's at EUR 1,155 million. And the main reason for it is increased investments up to EUR 441 million. So if in February this year, February 2022, we had a committed investment of EUR 560 million, but we were not identifying any additional investment to what we had committed, what we do in this strategic plan is identifying the investment lines that fit with our strategic vision that's -- that account for EUR 741 million. So besides that, we have a smaller cash flow, EUR 203 million, from GSP and lower funds for operation due to our higher investments in [indiscernible] and then less dividends from Tallgrass and Quintero, are completed as the CFO mentioned, with the cash flow generated by the sale of Quintero. Besides that, within these investments -- the investment of EUR 741 million, we are -- I mean, the investments will be made as the projects become material throughout the period. So the investment -- most of the investment is at the end of the period especially in 2026. And of course, we are also watching the functional operation debt -- net debt ratio to be sure that we are always about 14%. Between 2022 and 2025, Tallgrass will prioritize funding growth CapEx on dividend. But in 2026, we'll recover the dividend that we expect to have from Tallgrass. And so we will have higher margin to make investments that year. So everything is closer to 2026 because we will have projects being approved at the end. And funds from operation, net debt ratio, that changes due to the returns that we'll start to get at the end of the period and also due to the -- now going back to normal dividend policy in Tallgrass. So in 2026, we expect to have EUR 144 million from the dividend of Tallgrass. I believe I answered your questions. Thank you, Fernando.

Thank you. And thank you, Fernando, for your question. Next question comes from Jose Javier Ruiz from Barclays.

I have several questions. First is when do you expect the translation of the gas directive in Spain? So when could we have a regulation on new transportation and storage infrastructure? And the second question, just to confirm, international investments. I understand there's nothing new, nothing included in the plan and no divesting in the international portfolio. I just wanted to confirm that. And my last question is on El Musel. I'd like to understand if there are going to be changes in the retribution of this asset after 2023 as soon as it's once again operational? I understand that right now, it's getting retribution. It's -- and so I would like to know if it's going to be in the -- it's going to go have retribution from OpEx and amortization?

Thank you for your questions, Javier. And on the transposition of the gas directive, this will follow the usual timeline. And in this case, it's especially urgent due to the present situation in Europe, which shows that we passed the clearest possible legal framework. But I believe we're expecting to be ready by the end of 2023 and -- while including -- to have this directive ready. And so be translated into as financial legislation. So what I'd like to show obtention is that this new legal framework in Spain has already been implemented in -- especially in very relevant aspects before we have the full framework. In the past few weeks or months, the certification of origin of gas have been approved, and the ministry has identified GTS of Enagás. The new legal framework for renewable gases infrastructures has been approved both for those connected to the network or those not connected as well. So we have the public interest point-to-point infrastructure. So we're taking many steps that are shedding some light on the legal framework here in Spain. Of course, the final definition of the -- for HNOs and the requirements for bundling -- well, we are acting on the base of the directive and -- which has a very wide consensus and can anticipate what the future is going to be like in Europe. On international investments, we have a volume of EUR 600 million. And everything -- or most of it will happen in the second period to make -- or to take advantage of going to brownfield opportunities mainly in Europe. That's what we're focusing on. We cannot mention those opportunities yet. But we wanted to show that there's enough margin that's comparable with our credit rating and our company rating and dividend to capture opportunities in Europe in the next few years. We're trying to make this vision of Enagás as a Spanish TSO possible, but also as a TSO that's participating in the European gas system because I'm sure that we are going to watch further integration of the energy and gas systems in Europe. I also believe that TSOs are -- have a key role. I mean we're companies -- Enagás is a private company, and it's a public company. And of course, we have to work for our shareholders. But at the same time, we execute public policies. And so when the European institutions or member states need actors that provide -- that are stable and that they can trust, they look at TSOs. And so my opinion is that an alliance policy between TSOs is going to be a big part of the integration of the European -- or the future European gas system. We are not planning to divest, and we will carry on with a normal asset rotation policy, one investment on material when there's a chance to maximize the value of our stakes. What importance that we have shown a robust financial forecasts that don't require as accounting on asset rotation, which gives us peace of mind to be able to have our -- have a normal asset rotation policy that the company already started back in 2020 that will also allow us to look for the maximum profitability in our investments on El Musel. But now El Musel is -- I mean within the -- its remuneration of EUR 25.7 million. And this remuneration will be there in the future as soon as the new retribution frame is approved if the CNMC approves a framework that's similar to the one we're proposing. Besides that, there will be -- we understand that the remuneration for the cost of the new regulated services that will have to do with the boil-off of the plant and loading trucks. And then there will be logistics services that will be the risk of Enagás. So we are in the midst of the conversation of the -- on the regulatory framework with CNMC. But those are the basis for these conversations, and there's going to be a regulated component with some additional elements added to what we are now getting for the plant and nonregulated logistics -- logistic business. Thank you, Javier.

Javier, thank you, and CEO, for your answer. Next question comes from Fernando Garcia from Real Bank of Canada.

I had 2 questions. The first one is about Peru. You've talked about the arbitration with GSP. But in reality, I understand that there are 2 processes underway. I would like to know your view of the second one related to the dividends. And specifically, what the -- related to what you've included in your plan and your French operation? And the second question would be to clarify something. You referred to net profit for 2026 between EUR 330 million and EUR 360 million -- EUR 330 million and EUR 360 million. I'd like to know if that's indeed the case. And secondly, if you could give us a breakdown of how much of that net profit would...

Thank you. With regards to Peru. Indeed, there are 2 arbitration processes. I've talked about the recovery of the investment for GSP, but then we have the immobilization of the TgP cash. And the award is expected in 2024, in our view. And we think that we have a very solid case. And I also have to say that if -- beforehand in 2023, if we get the award as we expect a favorable award in the GSP arbitration, immediately after that, then there would be a lack of logic in retaining the cash to which we are subject right now. So in any case, we have forecast that this cash can be recovered in the worst-case scenario in 2024 after the award. And the entirety of the cash amount would -- for that year would be in funds from operations, and we'll be talking about EUR 250 million approximately at that time. If we talk about the profit after tax, the adjusted pro forma, indeed, we calculate -- to 2026, we calculate depending on CapEx financing, we're talking about EUR 330 million to EUR 360 million. You asked how much was the PPA. We talked about -- yes, we're talking about EUR 50 million approximately. And it's compatible with this range of EUR 330 million to EUR 360 million.

Thank you. We have no further questions in the Spanish room, so we will change to the ones that come in English. Arthur Sitbon from Morgan Stanley.

So the first one is on the investments that are included in financial projection. So you talked about EUR 1.2 billion for 2022 to 2026, but there is a potential for EUR 2.8 billion in total. So I was wondering for the additional EUR 1.5 billion that could materialize, if they materialize, how will you finance them? Could you -- well, would it be a scenario where you could cut the dividend? Could you raise equity? Could you reconsider your position on asset rotation? So that's my first question. The second one is actually on the EUR 0.7 billion of investments that are not secured yet for 2026. I was wondering how likely you consider these investments are to materialize over that time frame? And my last questions are on the, well, Spanish transport -- gas transport business. I was wondering if you could help us and guide us on the RAB value for 2026 and 2030 and the associated EBITDA.

Thank you, Arthur. First of all, when we refer to investments for 2022 to 2026, we are including EUR 1.3 billion. And you said that it could be more, EUR 500 million more. And that would be if we had REPowerEU projects as we have forecast. And we're talking about, if I'm not wrong, EUR 365 million in the third interconnection with the Pyrenean interconnection. And the schedule for that, well, it means that we would, first of all, carry out investments associated to the gas phase. And we could undertake after that the investments which prepare the use for hydrogen as of 2030 and then an investment in the Portuguese interconnection, which was, I think, around EUR 115 million or EUR 113 million. These are gross -- 100% gross investments without any state aid. We are convinced that if these infrastructures, they are for gas. But if they can be used for hydrogen as of 2030 onwards, then they will be able to enter into the lists of common interest projects for the EU and could benefit from investments -- sorry, subsidies of between 30% and 40%. And what's more, we have to define the nature of the investments, if they have a regulated component and a market component. What I'm trying to say is that we need to have information about these details because that will determine the net investment for Enagás, which is likely to be significantly less than those EUR 500 million if we have EU's aid. And then for financing the rest, that will depend on whether we're talking about a regulated mechanism or a contract by which we can also look for nonrecourse financing. In any case, Arthur, we believe that these figures are manageable so that when we have more information about these aspects, we will be able to incorporate them into our financial forecasts using the most appropriate mechanism. And as I said, then we would look at the use of hybrid instruments or if we are talking about an appropriate moment, we can talk about asset rotation or whatever is suitable in each case. But I would just highlight that we are talking about an investment -- a total investment between '24, '25, '26, over those years, of approximately EUR 300 million. And I think that would be something quite reasonable. The investments for 2026 and the likelihood of them being materialized in our view. Well, as you can see in the list, the detailed list of projects that we include within the plan, we have focused on projects which are very specific, like with a name, specific name of projects for which we understand the technical characteristics, the value chain, we know who the end consumers would be for the volumes that we're talking about, the remuneratory framework, we understand that these are very specific projects we have been -- we have detailed, and so there is a high likelihood that they will be materialized. If we talk about REPowerEU projects, I'm convinced that they will come about. I believe that Europe needs them as things stand right now. Europe is asking itself whether on the 21st the flow of gas in Nord Stream 1 will be resumed or whether the markets in the Central and East of Europe will be left without gas? Europe launched REPowerEU as something crucial for strategic independence and in order to maintain the level of freedom and prosperity that exist in Europe. I think that Europe is serious about this, about REPowerEU. And when Europe -- with the backing of the member states and also the Spanish government, when it presents us with a map talking about infrastructures, for Enagás, this is not something optional. It's not an optional decision to plan for this or not. Now for Enagás, it's a responsibility and an obligation as a TSO to look at the best way in terms of the technology, technical aspects, engineering, looking at the system and the future development of the gas system. We are obliged to propose the best way to materialize all of these infrastructures. And that's what we've done, and that's what we are making available to the European institutions, to our neighbors. Because right now, Spain finds itself in a situation of robustness in terms of its supply. But there are European countries that also need to understand this exercise in solidarity and in forecasting. So well, Arthur, I've gone a bit off the subject. But for me, it's very important to convey the fact that for Enagás, it's a responsibility to talk about how we can materialize what has been set out in the key communications from the European Commission. And I'm convinced of this, and I'm convinced that they will be carried out because Europe needs them. The details of the moments, the characteristics and how it will all fit together in this jigsaw of the gas systems in Europe, we have to do that with TSOs and the European institutions. If we look at 2030 and how everything will interact with EBITDA, I'll leave that to my colleague.

I think that the best way of talking about the contribution of this to RAB is looking at 2030, we have to understand that there is a materialization, it's maturity during the second period. Of the total block of the EUR 7 billion, if you talk about transition gas and hydrogen, they represent EUR 1.5 billion. And of them, EUR 808 million -- EUR 872 million represents a contribution to RAB, which would have been going from RAB -- a net RAB. We're talking about EUR 3.4 billion and getting up to EUR 947 million and just over EUR 800 million of RAB would take us up to over EUR 900 million. So instead of having minus 6% growth, we have minus 2% growth. And obviously, this would have an impact on all the different parts of the P&L. If we took out the EUR 670 million additional to the EUR 1.5 billion, this investment is -- comes in as CapEx. And we have another series of investments which are necessary for the updating and maintenance of the gas system.

Thank you, for those answers. Thank you, Arthur, for that question. The next question which comes from the English room is from James Brand from Deutsche Bank.

I have 3 hopefully quick questions. The first is just kind of start -- and my apologies, another clarification just on the net profit guidance because I think there was an earlier clarification that this included contribution from work-in-progress. I just wanted to also check that it's based on dividends from affiliates. So it's just fully on the same basis that you provided your EBITDA guidance. That was the first question. Secondly, I was wondering whether you could tell us how much work-in-progress has accumulated by the end of the plan at the end of 2026. And then thirdly, on Tallgrass. So am I right that you're not expecting any dividends at all from Tallgrass through to 2025 and then you go to EUR 144 million? And if so, what kind of -- what have you achieved by that point that something allows you to be paying out big dividends? Have you delevered Tallgrass by that point to a certain metric that it's more stable or you've delivered a certain amount of investment? Or what's happened by that point that suddenly allows the dividends to be paid again?

Thank you, James. I'm going to ask Luis to answer about the contribution of work-in-progress to adjusted EBITDA and the dividends of affiliates on Tallgrass. On Tallgrass, you're right, in our forecast, we don't forecast more dividends than the ones we received in 2022 this year. And we do not forecast dividends in years 2023, '24 and '25. So the resource of the company are going to be devoted to funding its portfolio, which are basically decarbonization projects or midstream projects with long-term contracts and low-price profile that's lower than the businesses we have in the past and more closely linked to our asset base. But it's a vision that we have already approved in the company. And the resources in -- of the company, these are going to be devoted to funding these investments. And we have not included dividends from Tallgrass till 2025. The forecast we've got with -- well, in Tallgrass is something that's aligned with the -- with Blackstone, the majority owner and the management of the company. The focus is that the speed will finish in 2025. And in 2026, we will resume a dividend policy for the following years in which the -- well, the forecast for 2026, I think, was a dividend of EUR 144 million. So that's the case. But my message and I like to insist, James, is that the forecast we're showing today and the -- our commitment towards rating and dividend payment has already taken into account that there will be no dividend coming from Tallgrass in those years, but we will not have to add equity to fund that growth because it's going to be funded by the results of the company. And the other point, Luis?

Well, James, in terms of the contribution of the volume and progress of CapEx, probably the best way to see this is to take a look at the adjusted EBITDA and the results we presented in February without Quintero and with an adjusted EBITDA of EUR 600 million. Adjusted pro forma EBITDA in the strategic plan for 2026 is EUR 760 million, and in fact, EUR 60 million come from -- EUR 20 million from the contribution of the CapEx that actually during the period, which is 75% of -- and the rest, about EUR 40 million, is the latent EBITDA linked to the CapEx as work-in-progress. I believe that's how we can get EUR 760 million on adjusted EBITDA. What's the effect on -- or what's in dividend? Dividends are EUR 235 million, out of which the most important contributions come from Tallgrass with EUR 144 million; TAP, about EUR 47 million; on TgP, with around EUR 50 million.

Thank you very much. I believe we have no further questions in the room -- in the English room. We have several questions online. Many of them have already been answered. Jorge Alonso from Societe Generale and Manuel Palomo and [indiscernible] Alberto Randolfi from Goldman Sachs and Gonzalo Sánchez-Bordona from UBS. And I believe the summary of the 3 questions that we -- still to be answered are the role of storage -- of underground storage in this situation. All these facilities could be adapted to store renewable gases. And they were also asking about the debt cost in refining the plan. And they were also asking if we could provide more detail on what -- which are the costs for the improvement of Tallgrass? I think the other questions have already been answered. So those are the only 3 questions that still to be answered. Thank you.

Well, thank you. I want to thank those of you who have sent these questions. Thank you, Cesar. So on the 3 questions, I'm going to talk about underground storage and on how the present infrastructure could be adopted and the causes for the impairment of Tallgrass. And I would like to ask Luis to answer, well, debt refinancing cost and on total gross impairment. Let's start with that. What we did with Tallgrass was to update vision on the recoverable value of the company that has 2 main aspects that have to be taken into account. First, in this period, we forecast a higher level of investment between 2022 and 2026. We're thinking about EUR 2.8 billion, an average of EUR 562.5 million a year compared to EUR 1.9 billion and -- that we had in the previous plan. So those are projects with lower profit really until the end of last year. The vision that Tallgrass had about its track record, we took into account that those were investments made on present assets to increase capacity on the extension of their linear structures or businesses that were linked to water gathering and transportation projects with important -- with an important profit rate of around 5.75. However, when we tackled the new investment cycle in which the profile of these projects change, and those are big projects not normally linked to the existing asset base. However, those are -- there's our take-or-pay long-term contracts with very positive risk profiles but lower profitability. So we went from profitability of 5.75 to -- I estimate that this is something we did with Blackstone and the team -- the management team, we went to 8.3. So this lower profit or even if those are with a lower-risk profile, well, that has an impact on the value of the company. Second, increased interest rates in dollars that has caused an increase in the financial cost of the company, an increase of the -- well, of the spot one that sets the cap rate of our impairment test. So well, the increase of interest rates increases the air cap rating the impairment tests. That also has an impact on the amount of that impairment. That's between EUR 130 million and EUR 140 million, but something that we are finishing with [indiscernible] probably -- and will, of course, be included in our quarter accounts. And on the role of storage facilities, as -- well, I'm not sure if I should answer what the role they're having right now. I believe it's important for us. Europe today is -- well, there's uncertainty on how the winter campaign is going to work. And in the past meeting of the Ministries of Energy approved the change in security of supply of the European Union forecast 80% of storage. And afterwards, it will have to be 90%. And there are some milestones. And August 1 is going to be 70%. And well, Spain is complying in this calendar. And we're filling our storage. We are amongst the highest levels of storage in Europe. I believe that we were up to 73.2% in our underground storage facilities. And the objective, as I mentioned, is 71% in -- for August 1. And so we're complying with the -- with what the European Union is asking. And then LNG plant -- I mean, Spain has 44% of all the LNG storage in the European Union. We are at 84%. So we are the highest level in the past 5 summers. And in July, we are also going to get 27 more ships, 26 terawatt hours of additional gas. That with the pipeline from Margerie the -- makes us a lot -- feel safe enough. What she doesn't mean we're going to stop monitoring the system from a -- as TSO. And we'll keep on monitoring the system. So underground storage in Spain are key for us to be able to face the future simply in next few months. So, of course, creating a central network of hydrogen transportation lines will require us to store hydrogen. And of course, part of it is -- part of the pipeline system, but we will need underground storage. But as part of the -- of that centralized system -- because many of the users that hydrogen will have in the future will generate capital network. And of course, finally, this is one we won't be able to store, the hydrogen. It would make sense to be able to have hydrogen tanks, whether it's actually used. So we will need a centralized system for hydrogen storage. We will build new storage facilities, and we have included in the plan between 2022 and 2026 to start with one of those storage facilities. And -- but we are planning to adapt one of the facilities we've got now. We've got 4 to be used with hydrogen. Just one example, the underground storage facility in Yela with a net addition cost of about EUR 200 million could store about 15 underground tanks. And so this is just an example that to show that having a centralized system is the most efficient way and the fastest way and the safest way to have hydrogen infrastructure in the future. I think I've answered the Tallgrass and underground storage questions. And Luis, if you can talk about the cost of debt and refinancing?

Yes, on refinancing in -- with interest rates rising, well, 3 things would take into account. Fixed-rate debt of Enagás is above 80% of our debt. On the forecast on refinancing, we have the forward in dollars until May, which allows us to capture most of the interest rates and visibility. And the third point which is also relevant is to start divesting in Morelos. And well, given the interest rates in dollars, of course, we're going to be used that close to amortize that in dollars as well.

And well, thank you very much. I want to thank you all for your attention and for being part of the update of Enagás' strategic plan. And I wish you all good morning. Thank you. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]