EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG (EBK) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. My name is Fransi, your Chorus Call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining EnBW's Investor and Analyst Q2 2022 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] It's my pleasure, and I would like now to turn the conference over to Marcel Mint, Head of Finance, M&A and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you. Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us for today's investor and analyst conference call on EnBW's figures for Q2 2022. Our CFO, Thomas Kusterer, will provide you with details on our results and put them into perspective in a moment. And after the presentation, we look forward to your comments and questions. With this, I'll hand over straight to Thomas to take you through the relevant slides and figures. Thomas, over to you.

Thank you, Marcel. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome also from my side. I would like to start with an overview on Slide 2. Tragedy of war in Ukraine is still ongoing and its impact is perceivable and visible in politics, economics and also in our private lives. The provider of system critical infrastructure, we at EnBW are, of course, affected by these developments, too. In the first half of this year, adjusted EBITDA was nearly at prior year level. Negative effects were recorded as a result of the curtailment of Russian gas supplies and our customer and Grids businesses. These are almost fully offset by positive effects in Generation and Trading. As of today, we continue to expect adjusted EBITDA of between EUR 3.25 billion and EUR 3.175 billion for the full year 2022 to nonetheless. However, I would like to point out that the overall uncertainty regarding statements about future developments is currently higher than usual. Hence, we continuously monitor and evaluate the conditions regarding the potential impact on EnBW Group. In light of increasing interest rates, a further reduction of our pension provisions had a positive impact on net debt. Since December 2021, pension provisions decreased by about EUR 2.1 billion. Before we dive deeper into our Q2 figures, let me talk about the current situation and actions taken by EnBW first. We have spoken to a lot of investors, analysts and banks in recent weeks to explain the current situation for procurement of natural gas in general and its impact on EnBW Group and our subsidiary, VNG. The key message is the risk deriving from VNG supply contracts for Russian gas was and is [ manageable ]. And the developments of the past weeks have to be seen in the context of our overall robust, diversified and defensive business model. Being a fully integrated utility, our diversified portfolio ensures stability also during volatile times. We have a very solid base of highly stable cash flows as a grid operator and our integrated lineup across the entire energy value chain is a big plus and a stabilizing factor in this environment. In 2021, around 70% of our earnings are derived from regulated grids and renewables. In competitive business areas, such as sales or generation, EnBW hedges its margins for up to 3 years in advance. Furthermore, we have limited exposure to coal and merchant gas businesses when it comes to adjusted EBITDA. In 2021, these activities accounted, in total, for less than 10% of our adjusted EBITDA. Besides our operating cash flow, we have access to various financing sources to maintain a comfortable liquidity position at all times. As of June 30, we had operating cash and cash equivalents at our disposal in EnBW Group of about EUR 6.5 billion. In July, we issued our [indiscernible] loan with a volume of EUR 500 million, significantly exceeding the EUR 300 million volume initially targeted in the term sheet. We were able to price all process at the low end of the indicated range. In addition to that, EnBW's syndicate loan committed and uncommitted credit lines of EnBW Group headed up to an additional liquidity buffer of more than EUR 7 billion, which is available at short notice to where the potential unforeseen market development. In the beginning of July, both rating agencies, Standard & Poor's and Moody's highlight our very stable positioning and emphasized the benefits of our integrated business model. Standard & Poor's confirmed our rating at A-, the outlook remains stable. At the same time, Moody's published a detailed credit update on EnBW having the rating unchanged at Baa1 with a stable outlook. This means that EnBW continues to be one of the best rated integrated utilities in Europe. Both rating agencies are in line with our objective to maintain solid investment grade ratings. They were published in an economically and politically volatile environment, which brings me to our exposure to Russian energy supplies on the next slide. For good reason, gas procurement has been a focus of public tension in recent months. EnBW's Trading division procures gas for its customers on the wholesale market, but has no direct import contracts with Russian counterparties. EnBW's subsidiary VNG has 2 supply contracts for Russian gas, which are affected by delivery restrictions. These contracts account for about 100 terawatt hours per annum. This corresponded to some 20% of EnBW's totally gas procurement in 2021. The costs resulting from delivery restrictions expected to remain at VNG as of today are included in EnBW'S half year financial statements on the basis of the best possible estimate and taking into account the loss mitigation measures of the Energy Security Act. Our adjusted EBITDA for the first 6 months of 2022 reflects a charge of EUR 545 million in total. With our forward-looking liquidity management and a solid financial position, VNG and EnBW have always been in a position to comfortably meet the liquidity requirements resulting from extraordinary market movements and volatile gas supply. The further diversification of our gas procurement is well on track. EnBW covers the complete LNG value chain from procurement and transport to regasification. Let me give you some examples. At the end of March, we signed a memorandum of understanding with Hanseatic Energy Hub for regasification capacity of at least 3 billion cubic meters of natural gas, we have a planned LNG terminal in Stade. In June, Venture Global LNG and EnBW announced the execution of 2 long-term contracts, whereby Venture Global will supply 2 billion cubic meters of LNG per annum to EnBW. To complement the picture of the supply situation, let me briefly comment on coal and nuclear as well. The diversification of our hard coal sourcing already started at the end of 2021. During the last month, EnBW has significantly expanded purchases of non-Russian coal. Meanwhile, we managed to switch completely to alternative sources. Hence, as of now, EnBW has no remaining exposure to Russian coal supply. Our thermal generation units are currently running full capacity in order to stabilize the overall energy system. This trend started last year already and continues in 2022, which means that we do not expect to reduce our CO2 intensity this year relative to last. Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, the task now is to ensure security of supply without pushing climate protection into the background. Hence, let me reassure you that we at EnBW remain fully committed to our sustainability goals. By 2025, we aim to reduce our CO2 intensity by 15% to 30% compared to the 2018 baseline. By 2035, we aim to be climate neutral in our emissions. The robustness of our integrated business model supports us in achieving these goals. This actually brings me to the debate on the potential extension of the use of nuclear power in Germany. From our perspective, the situation remains unchanged. Following the decision to phase out nuclear power in 2011, we drove a long-term strategy to dismantling our nuclear power plants, which we have followed consistently ever since. The legal framework clearly ruled out electricity generation in German nuclear power plants beyond December 31, 2022. This also applies to our nuclear power plant Neckarwestheim II. Now the Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Action has commissioned the 4 German transmission system operators to conduct a second stress test in which the security of power supply in Germany is to be examined under very specific conditions also taking into account the situation in France. Results are expected in the coming days. Let's turn to our results in the first 6 months. I would like to start with a brief look at our adjusted EBITDA and adjusted group net profit on Slide 4. For the first 6 months of this year compared to the same period in 2021, our adjusted EBITDA decreased slightly by 4% to EUR 1.424 billion. The curtailment of Russian gas supplies at subsidiaries and the resulting high replacement costs for the missing gas volumes as well as higher expense for network reserve had a negative impact. This was largely offset by higher earnings contributions from Renewable Energies and trading activities. I will look at the details in a minute. Adjusted group net profit attributable to the shareholders of EnBW. AG nearly half million to EUR 300 million in the first 6 months of 2022. This decrease in net profit is mainly attributable to a reduced financial results based on IFRS 9 losses from [ marketing ]securities to market, they are higher as of the reporting date. Let's now look at our 3 business segments in detail, starting with smart infrastructure for customers on the following slide. Adjusted EBITDA in this segment, which accounted for 8% of our operating result overall, nearly half to EUR 115 million in the first 6 months of 2022 compared to the prior year period. The main reason for this decline in earnings is increased procurement costs. As of October 1, 2022, the higher procurement costs will lead to a price increase for household electricity by an average of around 31%. As the surcharge based on the German Renewable Energy Act will no longer be passed on, the price will then be around 15% higher than in previous periods. The segment system critical infrastructure on Slide 6, contributed around 40% to our overall earnings in the first half of 2022. Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 9% compared to the same period of last year to EUR 588 million. The reason for the reduction in earnings is a significant increase in expenses for network reserve, including redispatch. Reserve power plants are deployed at the request of the transmission system operator to ensure system stability. In the first half of the year, EnBW's reserve power plants were deployed significantly more often and a significantly higher cost than planned compared to the same period of the previous year, with corresponding additional expenses to ensure security of supply. These additional expenses will, however, be fully reimbursed in future periods via the incentive regulation system. On Slide 7, let me turn to sustainable generation infrastructure, our largest business segment in the first half of 2022, which contributed almost 60% to our overall results. Adjusted EBITDA in this segment increased significantly by 17% to EUR 852 million in the reporting period compared to the previous year. In Renewable Energies, adjusted EBITDA increased by more than 40% to EUR 547 million, mainly due to the following 3 reasons: first of all, the marketing of electricity from renewable energies above the fixed tariff under the German Renewable Energy Act; secondly, we commissioned new solar farms; and finally, in the first 6 months this year, the wind conditions were above prior year's levels. In terms of Generation and Trading, adjusted EBITDA in the first half of 2022 decreased by 12% to EUR 305 million compared to the prior year period, mainly due to the reduced gas supply from Russia, which had to be sourced on the wholesale market at higher cost by our subsidiary, VNG. In addition, temporary valuation effects from derivatives had a negative impact. This will continue to partly unwind in the future as the underlying trading contracts go into delivery. On the other hand, increased market prices had a positive effect, and we expect the current high market prices to have a positive effect on thermal generation and trading for the full year 2022. Let's now briefly look at the development of our retained cash flow on Slide 7 (sic) [ Slide 8 ]. Our retained cash flow decreased slightly by 5% to EUR 792 million, mainly due to higher dividend payment compared to the first 6 months of 2021. This brings me to the development of net debt on Slide 9. As of June 30, net debt amounted to about EUR 7.5 billion, which is 14% or EUR 1.3 billion, below the level end of 2021. Besides our retained cash flow and a small net movement in working capital, this development was largely driven by 3 effects. First of all, net investments amounted to about EUR 1.1 billion, about half of which was attributable to investments in our grid infrastructure. Moreover, we invested some EUR 300 million in our renewables business to complete our solar parks, Alttrebbin and Gottesgabe, and to secure the lease option of the coast of Scotland to develop a 2.9 gigawatt offshore wind farm together with BP. And about EUR 150 million were allocated to investments in our segments smart infrastructure for customers, predominantly for rolling out our e-mobility fast tracking infrastructure. Secondly, the repayment of 2 subordinated bonds with a nominal value of EUR 725 million and USD 300 million, respectively, at the beginning of January 2022 caused an increase in net debt by about EUR 500 million. And last but not least, pension provisions decreased significantly by about EUR 2.1 billion given substantial increase in the relevant discount rate from 1.15% to end of 2021 to 3.35% as of June 30. Let me illustrate our outlook for the full year 2022 on Slide 10. As already mentioned at the beginning of the presentation, our earnings guidance 2022 for the overall group remains unchanged. However, it is restated the war in Ukraine as well as high market volatility and the threat of gas shortage increase the overall uncertainty regarding statements about future development. We therefore continuously monitor and evaluate the conditions regarding the potential impact on our business as a group and in our subsidiary, VNG, in particular. As before, adjusted EBITDA in the smart infrastructure for customers is expected to exceed the prior year figures in 2022. High expenses for network grid reserve and redispatch to maintain security of supply are expected to continue in the second half of 2022. This is the case, we expect adjusted EBITDA in system critical infrastructure to fall short of our forecast range. Our outlook for adjusted EBITDA in sustainable generation infrastructure in 2022 was an increase of between 7% and 14%. Due to continuing high market prices, we expect adjusted EBITDA to exceed the previously stated forecast range. Based on the existing uncertainties and the volatility in the 2 segments, system critical infrastructure and sustainable generation infrastructure, we refrained from reporting an updated forecast range for these segments individually. Having said that, overall, at group level, we continue to expect earnings to increase by plus 2% to plus 7% in 2022, between 2 -- between EUR 3.025 billion and EUR 3.175 billion. And with this, I would like to hand over to the operator to kick off the Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from James Sparrow from BNP.

I just wanted to follow up on the gas issue. And in particular, on Slide 3, when you talk about the EUR 545 million impact. Is that -- is that basically the full year impact will basically through till the first of October? Or is that the sort of impact on EBITDA up until the -- until July? And so have you kind of taken some sort of provision for the rest of the year? And -- or maybe another way of asking the same question is this just -- I know that S&P and their recent update talked about sort of mid-single-digit losses from gas supply. Is that still a sensible number to think about through to the beginning of October? And is that included in that EUR 545 million figure?

James, actually, the EUR 545 million impact is full year impact as we see it as of today. However, actually, when you look at our half year report, we also actually stay depending on future developments, meaning prices, the level of supply from Russian gas and so forth may lead to an increase. And we stated in our half year report that, that it might be up to additional EUR 1.3 billion. However, as of today, we do not see actually that, that's the number we are looking at. At the half year, we reflected what we currently see for a full -- on a full year basis. Does it answer your question, James?

Yes, I think it does, yes. I mean -- so that's your best estimate of the full year impact, which is -- which very simply speaking, if we were to roll through to the first of October, about a sort of EUR 5 million a day. Is that broadly gets us there as well. So those numbers sound kind of consistent to me, but I was just checking really.

The next question is from Andrew Moulder from CreditSights. Mr. Moulder, maybe unmute your phone.

Can you hear me?

Now we do.

Yes.

I have to ask about German nuclear, given all the conversations we've had with the E.ON and RWE over the last few days. I understand that you don't want to sort of comment on what the government might decide. But just hypothetically, if they did decide to extend the life of the nuclear plants, what could you actually do right now? I mean could GKN II for instance, operate until the middle of 2023 before it needs to refuel? Or are we talking about just 3 months or 2 years or whatever? So could you just talk about exactly what you could do immediately if they did decide to extend the nuclear lifetimes? So that's kind of my one question. And can I also just ask about the LNG you talked about. You talked about the Stade terminal, and you also talked about the agreement with Venture Global. When are those actually going to come into place? So when will you be getting -- I think you said it was 3 million -- 3 bcm from Stade and 2 bcm from Venture Global or maybe it was the other way around, but when will you be getting those volumes? Is that immediately? I'm guessing not from Stade. But is that immediately, or is that next year? And maybe finally, just on your guidance, you talked about the smart infrastructure for customers being above last year. But I'm not sure is that a bit too optimistic considering the high procurement costs that we're seeing. I mean if they keep going up, I mean, admittedly, you'll be able to pass through some of the ones that you've already incurred, but you -- perhaps you'll have more costs that you can't pass through. So do you still think it's realistic to expect that segment to actually be better than last year?

Andrew, let me answer your question in the order you asked them actually, starting with nuclear regarding Neckarwestheim II. Your question is actually for how long do we expect to be able to run the power station without refueling? It's a couple of weeks actually, rather than months because, I mean, we prepared since, effectively, 2011 to shut down the power station by the end of 2022, which means that the fuel is relatively low at the end of December. So without refueling or making adjustments to the core, and we will not be able to run the power station for more than a couple of weeks.

Can I just ask quickly there? You said not making adjustments to the core. I mean, could you potentially make adjustments to the core and move the fuel around so that you could do better than a couple of weeks? Or are we really looking at maybe 2 weeks into January, and then you have to close it for, I don't know, 12 months until you've managed to refuel it?

Actually, that's -- what we are currently about to evaluate, I think it's more like 4 to 6 weeks, what we currently think without any further adjustments. And if and when we have more clarity around the results of the stress test, we'll look into more details into it. But with the current setup, it's a couple of weeks. We can prolong the life of this power -- theoretically prolong the life time of the power station.

And the refueling, how long would that actually take? Would it really be sort of another year? Or would it be...

Unfortunately, I can't give you here a precise number, sorry. Regarding LNG, Andrew, actually, when we talk about the venture capital contract, this contract is going to start at -- in 2026. And it's also Stade, we assume currently that Stade will be available as early as 2026. So both the contract and Stade might be available in 2026.

Right. So can I just follow that then quickly -- the 35 terawatt hours that you're currently getting from Russia, that contract expires at the end of this year. So how are you replacing that?

Actually, that's something we need to replace if we want to be in the market.