Enel SpA (ENEL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to Enel's First Half 2021 Results. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Monica Girardi, the Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen, a warm welcome to our first half 2021 results presentation, which will be hosted by our CEO, Francesco Starace; and our CFO, Alberto de Paoli. In the presentation, Francesco will provide some highlights of the period and will sum up the milestones achieved, while Alberto will walk you through the operational and financial performance for the group. Following the presentation, we will have the usual Q&A session. We ask those connected to the webcast to send questions only via email at [email protected]. Before we start, let me remind you that media is listening to both the presentation and the Q&A session. Thank you, and now let me hand over to Francesco.

Thank you, Monica. Good evening, everybody. Let's start with the highlights of the period. We are at Chart #1 of the presentation pack. The operating dynamics of the quarter of the year showed a trend of significant recovery, and the industrial pickup is now visible in the financials of the period. As we detail later, the second quarter represented a turnaround across all industrial KPIs that are now accelerating and getting back to the levels of pre COVID-19. Progress were made also in simplifying the group with the completion of the merger of EGP assets into Enel Americas and the corporate reorganization in Colombia. In light of the predictable evolution of the business, we can therefore confirm our targets of the year, including the guaranteed dividend per share of EUR 0.38 per share for the 2021 year. On Slide #2, we dive into some industrial KPIs of the second quarter. In renewables, we tripled the capacity build with 1,100 megawatt installed only in the second quarter of the year, making a strong acceleration that supports our target of the year around 5,800 megawatts. Our networks volumes of electricity distributed are now back to pre COVID-19 levels, increasing 11% versus the second quarter of 2020 highly impacted by lockdown measures, especially in Latin America. In customers, the electricity sold to our customers in the free market is up remarkable, almost 20% year-on-year. So industrial performance is back on track. The next slide shows the upward trend on investments that we are deploying. We invested EUR 4.9 billion in the period, an increase of 20% versus the same period of the previous year. In the ownership business model, almost half of the investments were devoted to networks with the remaining half allocated to the generation business, out of which around EUR 2 billion to renewables. From a geographical perspective, EUR 2.5 billion gross CapEx was deployed in Europe, 1.4 billion in Latin America and the remaining portion mainly in North America with around EUR 700 million. We have invested around EUR 300 million through the stewardship business model focused primarily on Enel X and renewables capacity managed through our joint ventures. Investments catalyzed and deployed by the third parties associated with the stewardship model amounted to around EUR 1 billion. Moving on to our Global Generation business on Slide #4, we can see that the total installed capacity is approaching the 90,000 mark fueled by the growth in renewable fleet, which now stands at 50,000 megawatts and accounting for 56% of the total capacity we manage. The green repositioning of our generation portfolio is evident, and it is progressing at full speed with 3,600 renewable megawatts and [additions] and 1,000 megawatts of convention generation capacity closed in the last 12 months. Generation output increased overall by 8% year-on-year. It reached more than 110 terawatt hour, recovering from the contraction that was observed in 2020 as the consequence of COVID-19. The total electricity produced is almost back to 2019 levels, but with significant changes in the output mix. In fact, if we consider prepandemic levels, the reduction of thermal production is notable, as well as the significant increase in renewable contribution up to 15% by 2019. It's worth to highlight that coal production was down a further 5% year-on-year after the steep decrease of around 16 terawatt hour last year, and that the increase in thermal production is mainly driven by gas and by the low levels of hydro resources in Latin America, namely in Chile. Thanks to the continued effort on decarbonization emissions, free production -- emission-free production is up 9 percentage points for 2019, reaching 65%. That positions us well on track to reach our decarbonization targets. If we focus on the progress made on renewable growth, we go to Slide #5 on Enel Green Power, where we see the total renewable capacity stands now at around 50,000 megawatts, approaching 60% of our total installed base roughly, renewable capacity built over the last 12 months is equal to 3,600 megawatts despite challenging conditions imposed by COVID-19. Year-to-date, we built 1,300 megawatts, almost doubling the amount of megawatt deployed in the same period of previous year. We will scale up the magnitude of new renewable capacity additions. We expect to commission over the next 2 quarters about 4,500 megawatts. As of today, 100% of these projects are in different degrees of execution phases offering high visibility on their deployment by year-end. Our global footprint and development capabilities allowed us to secure 100% of our supply of goods and materials until 2022, offering protection against the inflationary environment that was observed during this month and the spike in commodity prices. Such a remarkable acceleration are made possible, thanks to our pipeline, which is also backing -- growing and backing up future growth projects. We see that in the following chart. As of today, this is Chart #6, pipeline has surpassed 3,000 -- 300,000 megawatts broadening project optionality, securing flexibility of capital allocation and, more than everything, protection on returns. Mature pipeline is now worth 73,000 megawatts, out of which 23,000 megawatts are earmarked for the period '21, '23, and 46,000 are already covering projects for the '24, '25 period. Over the last 12 months, our mature pipeline grew by almost 30,000 megawatts and almost 6,000 megawatts entered the execution phase. The mature and early-stage pipeline dynamic positions us optimally for both the plan period as well as for the years to come, offering an advantage into the new decade up to 2030 and supporting our growth ambition. With respect to the 19,500 megawatts targeted additions for year '21, '23, today, we stand at around 70% of this target addressed with around 1,300 megawatt already built as of now, and around 12,000 currently in execution. The residual target is covered therefore 3.6x by the related portion of mature pipeline, which translates in negligible delivery risk, high confidence of achieving even more than this by end of the period. We can leverage on this extensive and well-diversified pipeline also to further push the implementation of the stewardship model in renewables, thanks to our origination capabilities, crystallizing over time the value that sits in this large portfolio. Let's move now to the operating achievement on Global Infrastructure and Networks, and we are on Chart #7. In the first 6 months of '21, volumes in electricity distributed stood at 246 terawatt hours, up 6% year-on-year, showing a progressive recovery from the dynamics that were observed in 2020 affected by lockdown measures. Looking more closely at the evolution across the 2 quarters of the year, the first quarter recorded a mere 2% increase. The second quarter is up by 11% versus the same period of last year, which is a clear evidence of the acceleration of the recovery. This acceleration has been observed across all geographies, which now stand at the level of distributed and energy almost in line with the pre-COVID 2019 level. In Europe, Volumes increased 11 terawatt hour versus last year. In Latin America, the lift is driven by Brazil, where we distributed 2.4 terawatt hour more than the same period in 2020. And thanks to our continued commitment in fostering the quality and resilience of our networks, SAIDI improved by 6% and stands now at 250 minutes. The rollout of the second-generation Smart meter progressed further with a number of Smart meter installed that reached 21 million, up more than 40% versus the previous year. Let's look now at customers on Slide #8. Our position on free customers strengthened in the last 12 months, both via our retail operation as well as our services and platforms offered by Enel X. More than 1 million new customers have been added to the free market, mainly Romania due to the regulated -- the end of the regulated tariff, and Italy added 300,000 customers. Energy sold in the free market is up 10%, with volumes increasing in both B2B and B2C segments, driven by economic recovery. Looking at Enel X, this business line performed extremely well with double-digit increase recorded on all product lines. More than 100,000 charging points have been added to our electricity network for electricity vehicles, reaching more than 200,000 figure, up 2.2x versus last year. Lighting points increased 2.9 million, up 21%. Battery storage increased by 27 megawatts. More than 7,000 megawatts of demand response capacity was offered globally. In fiber, we reached 12.1 million households passed, up 39% year-on-year. The industrial development goes together with the progress on group simplification. We are now at Chart #9. And we can see here that after the completion of the merger and the public tender offer, we now own 82.3% of Enel Americas. This has aligned our corporate structure with the other subsidiaries of the group. This integration of -- the integration of renewables will unlock synergies, will reduce operation and financial risks for Enel America resulting into an earning accretion of the group which we estimate to the tune of 13%. Our aim of reaching a streamlined and more efficient structure continues as testified by the agreement reached in Colombia with the creation of a single corporate vehicle that will support growth in the country. Let's now open up the section on financial results. I hand over to Alberto for that part. Alberto, the floor is yours.

Thank you, Francesco. Good evening to everybody. I'm [kick] you off on the analysis of financial results, and I'm starting on Page 11. EBITDA stood at EUR 8.4 billion, in line with the expectation for the semester with the second quarter that shows clear signs of recovery compared to the last year. Group net ordinary income came in at EUR 2.3 billion, decreasing by 4% versus previous year. I will detail later some nonrecurring items into the net income that are weighing on the performance. For now, let me just highlight that excluding the negative impact of liability management and operating and fiscal nonrecurring items, net income would have been up by 10%. FFO reached EUR 2.7 billion, up 31% versus the first half of 2020 and broadly in line with the seasonality of cash flow dynamics that we always experience. Now moving to an analysis of the period that will kick off with the evolution of EBITDA on Page 12. You can see from the chart and as already commented during the Q1 presentation. In the first 3 months of the year, the economic results have been negatively impacted by the lack of some one-off items booked in 2020 and forecastable business dynamics. The second quarter of 2021 was driven by the recovery of the operating performance across all the business lines and marked a clear turning point supporting our targets for the year. Since April, devaluation of currencies and nonrecurring items have smoothened the negative impact, while the industrial growth has become visible, contributing around EUR 400 million in the period. We observed the recovery of the operating performance across all the business segments, with lion's shares associated with global power generation, where amongst other effects that I will detail later, the development of new capacity contributed remarkably. This evolution was supported by better volume dynamics in the retail business in Italy and Spain, and by the stabilization of the level of electricity distributed in LatAm, particularly in Brazil as Francesco mentioned previously. We expect these dynamics to last in the coming months. And now moving into a divisional deeper analysis. We are on Slide 13 on Global Power Generation. The ordinary EBITDA stood at around EUR 3.2 billion, down around EUR 200 million year-on-year or 6%. Results have been supported by the positive contribution of renewable new installed capacity for around EUR 250 million that has been offset by some negative items detailed as follows: We had lower hedging prices, mainly in Italy and Iberia, for around EUR 150 million. We got around EUR 60 million of negative impact due to the weak hydrology in Chile. EUR 90 million negative impact associated with the normalization of the ancillary services market. And around EUR 150 million of negative impacts from currencies devaluation. Trading activities contributed negatively for around EUR 20 million, and so almost flat and also almost 0. And this is the consequence of the normalization of gas portfolio management and the short position in Spain counterbalanced by a temporary positive effect on portfolio optimization in Italy. Worth to highlight that first, the negative price effect would be completely reverted next year. As of today, we have already hedged more than 90% of the 2022 production at prices that are, on average, EUR 5 more, but mainly in Italy and Spain. So we are talking about an increase in the range of 7%, 10%. Second, negative impact from the weak hydro production in Chile can be considered a black swan. So an exceptional situation in 2021. And lastly, we don't see further devaluation of currencies affecting numbers on future year-on-year comparisons as we see the erosion effect being close to an end. Considering all these and the push from the last 12 months and future quarters development, we see the growth trajectory of, in particular, the renewable part of the Global Power Generation to come back supporting -- strongly supporting future trends and targets. Let's now take a look at the Infrastructure and Networks on Page 14. Here, EBITDA stood at EUR 3.5 billion, down 9% versus last year. The dynamics of the quarter can be summarized as follows: EUR 90 million increase associated with the higher electricity distributed across all the Latin American countries, with Brazil contributing for more than half of this amount. Then we got EUR 70 million positive related to tariff indexation coming from -- mainly coming from Brazil, and EUR 75 billion coming from efficiencies. These positive items were offset by EUR 120 million negative impact associated with half regulatory adjustment and half on so the effect of CPI on OpEx than it has been offset by the tariff indexation. EUR 340 million is the negative impact of nonrecurring items that we accounted in 2020. So net of this distribution would have growth also in the period. And then negative impact from currency devaluation in LatAm from EUR 110 million. So all in all, if we get the EUR 340 million and EUR 110 million of FX impact, we sum up EUR 450 million. And so without this, we would have also a growth in the distribution network because of the positive items I have commented before. From a geographical standpoint, in LatAm, excluding the impact of FX, EBITDA increased by 6% versus the same period of last year, benefiting a set of tariff indexation and increasing volumes. Net of nonrecurring items, the performance in Europe is almost flat year-on-year. Now we move on, on Retail, Page 15. As you can see from the chart, EBITDA came in at EUR 1.6 million with a recovery from the extreme conditions experienced in 2020 associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Group expanded its free market customers by adding 1 million of new clients over the last 12 months on the back of the end of the regulated tariff in Romania, and the increase in the customer base in Italy. Looking closely at EBITDA, free market EBITDA is up by 12% year-on-year. Thanks to a better performance in Italy, mainly attributable to a 10% increase in volumes, which are now back to pre-COVID levels. In Italy, EBITDA increased 19% or around EUR 170 million in the year. So it has been driven by a pickup of volumes in both B2C and B2B segments, and also a better marginality, unitary margins up 7% on average. In Iberia, net of nonrecurring items, EBITDA declined by 12%. This is driven by an increasing B2B segment due to high unitary consumption associated with the economic recovery post pandemic. And a reduction in unitary margin for the B2B segment, partially compensated by higher marginality for business customers. So in Romania, retail EBITDA increased by around EUR 50 million or 50% by the end of the regulated tariff. Regulated market EBITDA is down around EUR 90 million on the back of the elimination of the regulated tariff in Romania and a decrease of the regulated customer base. OpEx per customer proved flat year-on-year. And worth to highlight that Enel X EBITDA increased 4x versus 2020, reaching more than EUR 100 million, driven by energy efficiency programs and customer needs of energy flexibility services. Now in the next slide, we will show in detail the earnings evolution during the period. I am on Page 16. Here, you can see that ordinary group net income came in at EUR 2.3 billion, down 4% year-on-year. This performance is affected by some nonrecurring items, net of which the growth in the first half would have stood at 10%, as set. We commented already the moving parts of the EBITDA level, therefore, let me now move on the other lines of the profit and loss. D&A are lower than the last year as a consequence of currency devaluation, lower bad debt accruals for more than EUR 200 million and lower depreciation, thanks to the impairment made in 2020 on coal asset in Chile, which more than offset the impact of the investments deployed. The evolution of financial charges was significantly impacted by the liability management transaction on the euro-denominated security performed in June, which is worth to remind is part -- it is part of the liability management program, we expect to complete by year end. So we have already completed in July that, so it's not accounting in the June results. I want to highlight that the debt refinancing strategy carried out during the last 12 months reduced by 20 basis points the cost of debt leveraging on cheaper sustainable instruments and hybrids. Then equity investments contributed for around EUR 70 million, taxes increased by EUR 95 million, driven by the adjustment of the deferred taxes in Argentina following the recent increase in the nominal tax rate. And minorities decreased by 21%, reflecting the increase in Enel Americas and Enel Chile stakes, and the higher contribution of Italian companies. Moving now to the cash flow on Slide #17. FFO stood at EUR 2.7 billion, up by more than EUR 600 million versus last year, supported by an improvement in working capital, which recovered from the COVID-19 impacts recorded last year, and the negative working capital is expected to be fully reabsorbed by the end of the year. Dynamics underlying the FFO evolution can be summarized as follows: high EBITDA after provisions mainly associated with lower bad debt accruals; net working capital at minus EUR 2.7 billion, improving versus last year, mainly thanks to the reabsorption of the residual COVID-19 effect recorded in 2020. It's worth to highlight that working capital dynamics are in line with historical seasonality and include temporary items to be reabsorbed in the second part of the year. Higher taxes paid mainly due to the advanced settlement tax payment at the end of the last year, higher financial charges paid related to the liability management program executed in June. By year end, we expect our cash generation to fully cover investments. Now let's take a look on net debt on Slide #18, in which you can see that net debt is equal to EUR 50.4 billion at the end of the semester. The main changes versus the end year of the past year are driven by the negative already commented EUR 2.2 billion free cash flow. Dividend paid for EUR 2.4 billion, EUR 1.4 billion associated with active portfolio management activities mainly related to the Enel Americas PTO. Hybrid bonds accounted as equity, a negative impact from FX of around EUR 1 billion. Gross debt stands at EUR 62.1 billion, increasing 5% versus December 2020 in light of the already mentioned dynamics on the net debt. And before the closing remarks, let's take a look on our sustainable financial strategy. As already mentioned -- I am now on Page 19. As already mentioned during the second quarter of 2021, we implemented some liability management actions with the aim to further accelerate our sustainable finance path while optimizing the financial structure of the group and further reducing the cost of gross debt. As a consequence, the share of sustainable finance sources on total gross debt are expected to reach 46% at the end of 2021, 13 percentage points higher than full year 2020. And we are now 2 years in advance to reach our target of 48% in 2023. Thanks to these 2 transactions, we refinanced in advanced convention and expensive bonds with cheaper sustainable instruments that will allow us to reduce the cost of debt with a saving of financial expenses of around EUR 100 million per year from 2022, crystallizing the value of the current low rate environment. And finally, we remind you that this refinancing program has affected the financial expenses for around EUR 200 million in the first half, while the impact for here and following the completion of the whole program is expected to be in the range of EUR 500 million. And now I hand over to Francesco for some closing remarks. Francesco, the floor is yours.

Thank you, Alberto. As you have appreciated, the second quarter is showing a solid and visible recovery in the operating performance, with most of the dynamics expected to continue with a similar trajectory also in the second part of the year. This will support the delivery of our targets for the full year 2021. The simplification in Latin America has reached a fundamental milestone, the increased stake in Enel Americas and the reorganization in Colombia are contributing to earnings accretion. And the next steps in the region will unlock further value. The growth trajectory of our renewable fleet is confirmed, and it is progressing at full speed. Indeed, the remaining capacity to get to year-end target addition of around 5.8 gigawatts is fully secured. Future years are abundantly covered by the growing pipeline, which is helping also in stabilizing the returns. Finally, it's worth to remind that in 2021, we already set a fixed remuneration for our shareholders with a dividend per share of EUR 0.38 per share. So the compounded growth of dividend per share and earnings per share will result in a total return to shareholders of more than 10%. Thank you for your attention, and let's now open the Q&A session. And Monica will manage this.

Thank you, Francesco, thank you, Alberto. Before entering into the Q&A, let me thank all of the analysts that sent questions over. We received them from Javier Garrido, José Ruiz , Emanuele Oggioni; Stefano Bezzato; Chris Laybutt, James Brand, Lueder Schumacher, Roberto Letizia, Rico , Manuel Palomo, Alberto Gandolfi, Javier Suarez and Antonella Bianchessi. We have unfortunately have to stop at 7:15, so whatever is not answered, we will answer by e-mail after the call. I do apologize for that. So let me crack on with the question. The first one is for the CFO. If he can provide guidance on 2021, looking at EBITDA, net income and net debt, and how this compares with the plan.

Okay, so first of all, let me confirm that the targets we gave to the market. So the targets are all fully confirmed. I have already the chance to comment some important moving parts. And I remember you that when we gave the target in the Capital Market Day, we assumed the range in the EBITDA between 18.7 and 19.3. And in this target, we were including around EUR 1.4 billion contribution from the disposal of Open Fiber. And we assume the EUR 1 billion associated with the managerial action to optimize commodity portfolio of the group mainly, so referring to the gas portfolio. Now today, so we see no room to go ahead with the latter. And Open Fiber gained and the increase of the potential of Open Fiber gain to 1.7 will be used to compensate EUR 1 billion of currencies devaluation that is today is the mark-to-market of the new FX versus our assumption in November. Net of all these moving parts, the operating deployment of the group remain unchanged. And so this is -- so the guiding start of our development, so the operating results are unchanged versus what the assumption we had. On the net income, well, bottom line, ranging 5.4, 5.6. We are assuming a significant liability management in the range of EUR 600 million. And so there is more or less what we are. So now account we are just closing the program in more or less at the level we assumed, and the increase of EUR 300 million in the increase of Open Fiber now is going to offset the impact in net income of the FX impact. On that, so we project to stand at 2.7x net debt to EBITDA guidance in line with the plan.

Okay. We stay on the guidance. Alberto, still with you, what do you expect to happen in the second part of the year that will bridge you to the full year guidance?

Well, after this second quarter, I think that we have clear visibility of what is going to happen in the second half, yes, so we don't know if another pandemic wave is coming or not. But looking at the normalization of the situation like we saw in the second quarter, we think that now we will be driven by this trend. So summarizing this, we see in the second quarter, so no impact coming from the scenarios. So a softening of the impact of FX. So we are not assuming now a better shape of FX. We are only assuming a neutral impact in the second quarter. And all the operating activities will perform very well, so we see a further increase in the demand of energy. We see a delivery -- a strong delivery of renewables in the second quarter -- in the second half. And on the other side, we see some improvement really of the high level of prices. We are -- it's true that we are almost fully hedged, but we have some part of the production still unhedged because we keep some part not hedged. So we may have some improvement on the side. And also Enel X doing well. So we think that the operational results that we are -- we saw in the second quarter will last and will drive the company towards the target that we have already reaffirmed.

Okay, still with you, Alberto, really popular question. Can you please provide an indication of guidance 2021 separating earnings from ownership model versus earnings from stewardship model, and one-off that should partially offset gains from disposals?

Well, I think I have already answered the question saying that -- so the operating results that we had and we have in our target are unchanged. The moving parts are related to other part of the results related to capital gain and liability program and others. I want to stress the fact that while this year is -- so this question is still compatible with the fact that we are starting the stewardship model with a big capital gain that will come from Open Fiber disposal. After this, the business is -- will be composed in the target of the next -- the 3 years that now is set at EUR 3.3 billion would be composed by several parts, not only capital gain. And the capital gain are fully within the operating model and business model that we are also pointing at. So these are -- so the way which we want to look at the business, so separating from one to other is in the future will be more and more difficult. Having said that, I say that so looking at the net income, we point to a net income that is in the range of pre Open Fiber at roughly EUR 5 billion. Then so the Open Fiber capital gain that will come on top of this EUR 5 billion will be partially offset by, on 1 side, the effect of FX that is roughly EUR 300 million at the net income level. And second, so the liability management impact that is in the range of EUR 500 million. So all in all, these 3 parts together will drive final results that will stay in the range of EUR 5.8 billion.

Okay. Next, another popular question. Is the mark-to-market on currencies still pointing to EUR 1 billion shortfall versus the EBITDA that you had in the plan?

Well, we so choose to run the -- we choose after, so the changes in scenarios 1 month to another in so volatile context. So it's possible that today would be a little bit different. So we'll be a little bit less negative. But so we do prefer to stay stick on an impact of EUR 1 million to drive on the results of 2021 and to stay at the end of the year, looking if some better news on FX side will come and will soften, will power our final results.

Okay. Still linked somehow with FX, Alberto, where do you see EBITDA 2021 for your LatAm activities?

Well, so net of FX effect, as said, LatAm are substantially in line with the plan. This is coming from netting of different results, different performance in different countries, Chile has been impacting negatively this year for several reasons that can be grouped in the black swan as said. But -- so it is going to be offset by better results in other countries.

Okay, I think there was a question around Chile, but I think here and there, you answered that question already. So I would move to guidance on 2022. EBITDA net income, net debt, how this compares with the plan.

Well, so we have already said it. So we don't change our view particularly after this good operating results. So the mark-to-market of our plan on the new FX is -- will be impacting the 2021, 2022 results of about EUR 1 billion. But looking at several parts that we are working on in terms of better price shape and also better hedging strategy we have already completed on 1 side. On the other side, an increase in investment -- potential increase in investments that we may do, pushing on our pipeline on 1 side and also an increasing investment in distribution. On the other side, by the big push that will come from the next-generation new funds that are also due to be deployed in the next month, we can confirm the target we gave, notwithstanding the EUR 1 million impact of FX. So we are ready to fully recover this gap and to confirm the target.

Okay. A few analysts were asking about the liability management program and the costs associated, but I think that again here and there you answered that question, too. We move to the CEO for a set of questions around M&A and simplification of the structure. The first one, Francesco, is around recent press speculation. Financial Times suggests Iberdrola is considering spinning off its renewable business, following a similar move by Acciona. Do you still think the benefit of a vertical integration outweigh the negatives?

Yes, we think that the vertical integrated utility model is still a safe option. Actually, it's even more the case now that we're getting into the more turbulent phase of the energy transition. In fact, I think during the announcements that we see here going the direction of confirming this, I don't think that we are going to see these companies break up as others have done in the past because the model has proven to be -- the integrated model so far has proven to be a winning model in the energy transition. I believe that spinning off renewable business or even portion of it, like the offshore renewable business might make sense in those companies where there is perhaps the need to lever -- I mean, store up the balance sheet or increase the exposure to this sector because it seems not probably been understood by the market. This is not the case of Acciona and Iberdrola , for example. So I can't comment on the logic that they apply here. Believe me, I think that the overall integrated market player will withstand the shocks and will benefit from the integrated business model much more in the energy transition than the other players. And we think that the market is going to appreciate this as it is starting to do already during the last 2 years. If you look at the relative valuations of integrated and nonintegrated players, you see the change in the dynamics.

Okay. Staying in our home, looking at Enel Americas, what are your plans on Enel Americas now that you own more than 8%?

We have some plans. And of course, the first to be exposed to these plans will be our co-shareholders in America. Now that we have the possibility, we will streamline to the extent possible the corporate structure, and we will restart growth trajectory now that we have a very well balanced and integrated portfolio of options to grow, both in renewables and grids. We will identify together with them, the geographies where we think growth is more likely to happen with valuable contributions. And those portion of Latin America, where growth perhaps is not as promising and value is maybe a little bit behind in the curve. So this is something that we intend to do with our co-shareholders in the next months.

Okay. Still on Americas, Francesco. Analysts are asking what are our plans in Brazil, if we are considering any IPO.

I think I've always maintained that if we are a significant player in this space in the utility space in any country that has a liquid and working stock exchange, then we should have a listed entity in that country. This is the case of Endesa in Spain, this is the case of Enel Chile in Chile. And I think now that we have reached a certain dimension in Brazil. And if this dimension keeps growing with additional renewable capacity. Maybe it would be a good idea to do that also in Brazil. But clearly, this must be discussed with our co-shareholders in Enel Americas. And I think it's something that we need to discuss with them.

Okay. We look at one of the slides we presented about the Colombian restructuring. So analysts are asking what this reorganization means strategically?

I'd say that the agreement that we have reached with our co-shareholders in Colombia has created a single corporate vehicle that can now feed growth in the country at 360 degrees. So no limitations. It offers a benefit of a more efficient and streamlined organization. It focuses all the companies regardless of what is the business line they have on pursuing growth with value creation. So it is exactly what we would like to keep doing in all countries in Latin America in general. So it is, I think, a very, very effective step, and we see benefits coming also from, let's say, a more constructive climate between investors, which are setting aside all the past claims and are focused now on value creation and growth in this big country. So it's a big step.

Okay. A set of 3 questions around M&A. Many times, you mentioned, Francesco, potential acquisition in the U.S. Can you update about the process of scouting?

The U.S. is a large space, and discounting is ongoing. And we know that there is value creation in this window. I agree with some of the comments that were given to us in the past and perhaps some that we just might have received in the recent days. Clearly, we need to find the right assets, and we need to find an agreement with the owners of these right assets. And this is something that will probably come up, but it hasn't come up to our attention yet. To be honest, we were also focused on the restructuring in Latin America and that got a lot of attention at work. And now it's done, so we can now devote ourselves to this.

Okay. Another M&A question around press reports of -- about Airgas disposals in Italy. Can you share any information around the acquisition of Airgas set in Italy?

Not really, we cannot comment on the sale of the asset with Airgas. As you know, we don't comment on processes that are ongoing in particular, this kind of news. What we can say is we are always associated to any transaction that happens in Italy, whether we are pursuing it or not. But this is something that I think will be clear in the next weeks. So bear with us a little bit more, and we cannot put up comments at this point.

Okay, another recurring question about the elephant in the room, as Alberto called it. When do you expect closing for the Open Fiber deal? Any change to the capital gain in case of delay?

I don't think there is a delay. The delay is not envisageable at this point. We are working to get the signing in the next few days. I think this is something that might happen for sure within the end of the year. So we don't see this likely that the transaction will be dragged on further.

Okay. We move to more business-related question. I'm staying with you, Francesco. Are you concerned about the impact of the fast rise in power prices on the competitiveness of the European industrial sector?

I think there is a little bit of tendency to overreact to market dynamics when they are in the rise and not on the down, which is normal by the consumers and in particular by the industry. I think that these spikes might be slightly overblown in their overall impact. We are not concerned. I think there are, however, several tools available to safeguard competitiveness. And one of them, which the industry in Europe has largely overlooked over the past, I would say, almost 20 years is contracting energy in the long term. This is a very peculiar system, the one that we have in Europe when compared to the rest of the world. And the industry is not used to capture the benefit of having a long-term stable supply of energy at a discount rather than ride the roller coaster of pricing going up and down year by year. Maybe this is the time that we all agree that we should restart a long-term pricing habit and customer in Europe, too. And I think that would provide great edge and would put the European industry at par with industries around the world.

Okay. Spanish government. The Spanish government is proposing a clawback of the benefits of CO2 prices for legacy fixed cost capacity. Where are we in the approval process, and what is the likely impact? Would that be compensated by the elimination of the generation tax.

First of all, we think that this measure, like all measures that tamper with market prices is going to backfire, is not going to be the solution. If we -- if there is a solution that needs to be found, it's not this way. There is no windfall profits for hydro nuclear plants that are already taxed, and further tax could jeopardize the targets that are stated in a national climate plan. So we really believe this is not the right approach. There is, however, an ongoing process, which is at country level, but there is also a European side of it because clearly, playing with the ETS mechanism has an impact on the credibility of this mechanism across Europe. So we think that the final version of the draft bill proposal will incorporate substantial improvements. The government has -- is pursuing a fast track implementation. So we believe that somehow this will end up in a resolution before the end of the year. We think this is slightly possible. But we believe that Europe will have a say and that there will be a lot of modifications before we see the end of the story.

Alberto, I'm just adding one small bit, analysts are asking if we can assess the financial impact.

There are moving parts to have a clear view on what the final impact might be. Only to stress the fact that with a couple of changes before the beginning, the first proposal, we have already halved the potential impact versus the previous one. And we think we are not ready at the floor of this discussion that may result in some law that will be, at the end, would have very not meaningful impact. If only as some of our suggestions, our and the other utilities [in Spain] are suggesting to create a shift for -- so further increase in price is not impacting a certain level, the situation and the economical impact. On the other side, I would say, we now are not accounting big impact for 2022. I may say that -- so with the situation of hedging already done and hedging is also a part that we have to discuss and to understand if hedge prices will fall in the law or not. But we -- I can say that we -- for now, we see limited impact coming from this law for 2022.

Okay. Next, I go back to Francesco. Do you think there is a risk that a similar initiative can be implemented in Italy?

We hope not. We don't think so. We've seen the Italian government choosing a different pattern, at least on the short term using the ETF's generated extra money to compensate for the additional cost -- to some of the additional cost of the customers. We think it would be the wrong answer in Italy, too. We have not seen signs from the government in that direction. It would probably also be incompatible with the legal framework and the regulated tariff system that we have here in Italy. Even more now that the release of the Fit for 55 target indicates clearly that ETF is going to be the way to go, not only for generation, but for power, but also for other segments that today are not part of it. So we don't expect this contagion to spread to Italy. And by the way, I think it in there, if it would go across Europe, they would finally kill the idea in itself because Europe will then have to basically reject it overall. So I think it's not going to happen.

Okay. Renewable delivery. CEO, following a lower-than-expected Q1 delivery of new renewable capacity, Q2 started to show some growth. Can you meet the 5.8 gigawatt target for 2021?

I think yes, we will meet the target with a very strong third and fourth quarter. I recall everyone that we are recovering 800 megawatts that were delayed from the 2020 years already. So there's -- it's a very heavy year this 1 in terms of installations. We are also building a mitigation plan of additional megawatts that we could draw back from '23 in case we would see problems in some of the projects. But overall, I think we are going to reach more or less this target, and we might be up or down a few -- maybe 100 or 200 megawatts, but that's the ballpark, and it's a big step.

Okay. Upside of GPG, you have a target to shut down 2.9 gigawatts of coal this year. Is this confirmed? Any upside potential?

Yes, it's confirmed. The large part is coming from Spain because we have received the green light from Red Eléctrica and the CNMC to close down the 2 big plants, Litoral and As Pontes. This alone covers 2,600 of these 2,900 megawatts, the 1 300 that are missing should be coming out of Italy out of the Fusina power plant, which we expect to be given green light by the end of the year. So the answer is yes. Let me underline that the fact that we shut down, that means we get a formal green light from the network operator and the regulator to do that does not change much the production profile. I mean these units were already not producing because of economic displacement given the price of CO2 that you're observing. So -- There's no impact on the production of terawatt hours and therefore, on the CO2 emissions. It's just a question of removing the megawatts from our megawatt theoretical base. But these megawatts are, by all practical reasons, already a muted them in terms of production.

Okay. A question for the CFO. Prices had a negative impact on results. Can you provide more details on the underlying dynamics? Can you elaborate on your hedging strategy?

Well, yes. So on the lower hedging prices, they impacted results in 2021 of around EUR 140 million mainly in Italy and Spain. This negative effect is already fully reverted because we -- in 2022, today, we have -- so the Latin America hedge already 100% for 2022. At an average price that is in line with the 2021. So no changes and no reduction in this price. While when it comes to Italy and Spain, so we are ranging around, say, 75%, 80%, 90% of hedging ratio with prices that are in the range of 5% higher in Spain and more than 15% higher in Italy. So this is the outlook for 2022.

Okay. Francesco, for you. We stay in Italy, an analyst is asking Enel recently signed a new PPA in Italy. Other operators have signed have been signing PPA contracts in the past months. Is this the actual start of a developed PPA market in the country?

I think it is the beginning of it, yes. And, again, it's a welcome moment because as I said before, it's time that the European industry uses this tool. It's a very useful tool to have clarity on energy prices and stabilize the cost structure of that industry and on the long term, benefiting from the stability of a lower price that the PPA offers. So I think it's the beginning. As I said, the European industry is a very dense in the extremely large platform of operators. So it will take time for everyone to be comfortable with PPAs. But I think it's beginning to show that this logical tool starts to make its way into the Italian system. And therefore, it will mitigate the short-term hikes of -- spikes of gas and commodity prices on the short term.

Okay. Alberto, for you. Analysts are asking if you can provide an update on the availability of hydro resources.

Well, this year and also the last years, all in all, we see a neutral impact of different situation of hydroelectricity in our countries. This year, we got some severe impacts in Chile and also in Spain, but on the other side, we had the better hydrological resources in Italy, in Colombia, in Panama and Peru. So at the end, we had a neutral impact on hydro. That is more or less what we are seeking for the net effect that spreading our global print in all the technologies may offer to us to have, at the end, a neutral impact between offsetting different situations in different countries.

Okay. Francesco, we go back to you. Analysts are asking if you can share preliminary thoughts around the first consultation document released by the Italian authority a couple of weeks ago. If you can anticipate the range of allowed return? And what do you think the impact might be?

First of all, this is the beginning of a negotiation. It's a very technical, quite complex document. It is a first step of a process. You may have noticed that there are no figures thrown at people. So -- and that is positive because it leaves a lot of flexibility to the negotiation. I think there are different ranges of potential outcome, given that there are many moving parts at play. We are going to submit our responses to the regulator with whom we have an ongoing dialogue as all the other players. The second consultation document is due in October. I think it is likely to be a reduction of the allowed return. But the extent of the cut will only be possible to be a certain -- some of the key variables will be known. Let me tell you that my hunch, my feeling is that this time that the regulator is conscious that although there is mathematically, if you want from a pure mathematical WACC standpoint the ground for some reduction to the loud return. On the other side, there is the need to convince the industry to add and not subtract the investment given the opportunity that the PNRR is giving. So they have to manage these 2, let's say, different forces and try to find the right balance. So far, we have seen that it is extremely, extremely balanced and the discussion is quite encouraging. So I'm positive that this will end better than there were ideas that we've seen on some of the hot reactions are coming out.

Okay. Francesco, we stay with you for a more general question around the Fit for 55 package. What's your view on that?

I think it's a great document. I think the European Commission has put down the last missing piece of the puzzle that is, first of all, the strategy of the green deal then the amount of money thrown at the green deal and now the FIT for 55, what governance and what changes to the governance of the energy sector and the industrial sectors in Europe need to be implemented in order for this, really these 2 parts to play and come into effectiveness. We are in favor of higher targets such as the 40% of 2030. We are in favor of specific target for energy efficiency. We are in favor of extending the ETS to other sectors provided that it's tune in a proper way. We think it makes a lot of sense. For us, it's also helping to prepare for the necessary acceleration towards a further electrification of [indiscernible] energy users, for example road transportation, heating, which is already today very competitive and much better than fossil fuels. So we think this is a bold move, and I think it is a very ambitious and extremely forward-looking document that will be hotly discussed. I mean it's going to be a very large lobby battleground, but I believe the European Union has set a very good starting point for that purpose.

Before -- moving -- sorry, we move now on the recovery funds that you just mentioned. When do you expect the funds to be distributed and how?

I think this is probably a question that relates to Italy, but more or less, we are in 4 countries in Europe, but more or less, they follow a little bit the same logic in Italy. We got the approval in July. That means that a small portion of the total of the total funds allocated could be paid in advance as early as the fourth quarter of '21. Should the Italian government and the EU define it through a specific agreement. This is an agreement that the 2 governments, and this is perhaps also valid for Spain and other governments. So there should be a bilateral agreement between the country and the EU, but we're talking about a small portion that it's a lot of -- it's about 13% or 14% of the total allocated amount, so quite a large function. We expect the first tenders to award projects. So we're talking about the rest of the money to be out in '20 -- in October '21, so after the vacations. And after the project, we're initiated an investment financed by the recovery funds Italy, will be in position to ask for the disbursement of the fund. This will happen twice a year. So there will be 2 moments in each year in which this disbursement will happen. And the request will have to be supported by the achievement of the targets that are defined under the PNRR. So first disbursement probably end of the year for an amount that will be around 13% to 14% subject to the definition of an agreement between the government and the EU.

Okay, before moving into another general question associated with the recovery fund, there is a super retweeted question, Alberto, that I have to ask you as the time is running by quickly, and it's about returns associated with the 5.8 gigawatt that we expect to lay down this year. If you can confirm what's the EBITDA on CapEx or IRR over WACC that you expect to have from this.

Well, I do confirm on both the measure in which we want to look at investments because EBITDA and CapEx is more front-loaded results of a project and the IRR and WACC spreads are along the full life of the plants. But for both, we do confirm that we are on the level that we have targeted for in the business plan for such a development. So we are talking about 11%, 12% EBITDA CapEx and 150, 200 basis points over WACC.

Okay. We have 1 minute. I think that one of the most burning question that we received was about the simplification decree in Italy. So I would end with that one, Francesco, with your comment around that decree and what you might want to make it better eventually.

Let's say that there is a -- it's a good decree. So it's a step in the right direction. We all commented that this is an encouraging move by the government. It is not enough to unlock a real ambitious green acceleration. So there are still steps to be made. We think, for example, 2 major improvements have to do with the fact that they should fix a timing -- a fixed timing for the authorization process that would be binding in order for the player, the developers and investors to know what kind of timeframe they're going to be stuck with when they get into the authorization process. So fix the time and make it binding. And second, align the regional authorization processes to 1 model in order to remove the diversification that is a result of different regulation and different systems be implemented by different reasons, which adds to the complexity and therefore, the pain in having projects authorized in the appropriate amount of time. I think these 2 things are not yet fully implemented. They would definitely improve the text.

Okay. And so far we have a list of questions that have been unanswered, but we will answer directly to analysts. Thank you so much for your time, thanks to the analysts and investors connected, and we wish good vacation to everybody and see you in September.

Thank you. Bye-bye.

Thank you. Bye-bye.

That concludes the conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.