Enliven Therapeutics, Inc. (ELVN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
September 16, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorTill Morgan Stanley sales representative. For this session, we have in Live Therapeutics, with CEO, Rick Fair; and CFO, Ben hole. Welcome both of you. Thanks, Sean. Appreciate it. Thanks for having us.
Unknown Analyst
analystWell, so might as well jump straight in. So starting, I've got a few questions here on, of course, 001 clinical differentiation and the CML strategy. So what is the single most important reason you believe 01 can ultimately outperform Semblex commercially rather than simply coexist alongside it?
Richard Fair
executiveYes. Thanks, Sean. And again, thanks for having us. We appreciate it. I think candidly we are very well positioned in our first launch to be sequenced after Scemblix. Scemblix is going to be well established as the market leader in firinsecond-line CML when we launch with our second line plus label. In the long run, competing with them in the front line will be about the totality of the profile. We know that treatment selection in the front line is driven by different factors for different patients for young fit patients who may be looking for a cure. The most potent therapies are most attractive, getting patients into a deep molecular response, ultimately a treatment-free remission is an attractive treatment goal. And there, it will be an efficacy choice. And I think in looking at our data so far, in third and later line patients, we look more effective in terms of driving major molecular response. -- in -- relative to Scemblix. So I think in that patient subset in the front line, it will be an efficacy story. For any other patients, elderly patients, more frail, more corbidities. It's really about controlling their disease. -- with a well-tolerated agent. And again, there are specificity to AB1 seems to show some differentiation from symbolic. We're essentially equally well tolerated in terms of nuisance adverse events and those that lead to treatment discontinuation for those reasons that we do seem to have some emerging advantages in terms of cytopenias, heme tox as well as cardiovascular toxicity hypertension, which may be very meaningful for that patient segment. So I can't really answer a single factor. It depends on the patient population. But I think in both of those patient subsets that we see in frontline CML, we have reason to believe we'd be better than Scemblix on a first choice.
Benjamin Hohl
executiveI'd also just had, we have some of the convenience factors as well. So we have a better DDI profile and no food effect. So those are things that hurt Scemblix as well. So I think that's a potential differentiation too.
Unknown Analyst
analystWell, thank you, Ben. If Enable too is highly successful, what percentage of One's long-term value do believe resides in later line CML versus eventual first-line use.
Richard Fair
executiveYes. I mean I think if you look at the markets in the U.S. today or the market in the U.S. today, about half the opportunity is in newly diagnosed patients and the other half is in patients who've previously been treated and are on their second or later line of therapy. And so I think we have reason to believe we'll be comparably successful in those settings. And so I would say that the base case would be about half and half between front line and second line plus.
Unknown Analyst
analystWonderful. And what efficacy benchmark would cause physicians to actively switch from other TKIs onto 01 rather than simply using it in newly relapsed patients.
Richard Fair
executiveYes, it's a good question. It's a little hard to say. Again, I think the treatment decision here is a little unlike other hem/onc or oncology indications where efficacy dominates here. I think it is more of a totality of the profile kind of question. What I would say is better drugs always caught patients to have the conversations with their doctors. And what we saw with Scemblix uptake can't be explained by natural levels of switching. So when they entered the market in third and later line therapy with their first approval, they achieved peak shares beyond 50% relatively rapidly in a market that doesn't have a very high rate of switching. And so that had to be patients saying, "Hey, there's a better treatment available. I'm going to discuss it with my doctor and sort of prompted switch. So it's a little hard to point to a specific efficacy outcome that will lead to that, but we think the overall profile of our drug will cause many patients to go to their doctor and say, I hear about this new agent. I want to try it.
Unknown Analyst
analystWonderful. And I guess of the opportunity set which is the most important? Do you think superior efficacy versus superior tolerability and/or quality-of-life benefits. It's probably all, but I would weight that out.
Richard Fair
executiveI think in this class, efficacy and safety and tolerability are hard to separate. So I think what we're all doing is we're all hitting the same target BCR-ABL1. And our ability to hit that target hard enough to achieve better levels of efficacy is for some drugs, toxicity limited. So the primary limitation of the first- and second-generation TKIs, has been that you can't get to a high enough dose to achieve the level of efficacy you want because of the off-target effects. With our very specific agent, we believe we can do that -- so it's almost not like a trade-off between efficacy and safety here. It is because we have a better tolerated agent, we will be able to dose to higher levels of efficacy. And so we should be able to come out and say, you should switch to our drug because we have the best of both. And I think that's been the Scemblix experience relative to the agents that were available when they launched, and I think you'll see something similar for live and Seres.
Unknown Analyst
analystAnd thinking about CML treating physicians. According to your market research, what's the biggest unmet need that 1 could fulfill.
Richard Fair
executiveI think at first launch, the clinical question that's not answered today is what is the best treatment after assembling failure. Scemblix is being rapidly taken up in earlier lines of therapy. We're seeing increasing numbers of resistance mutations to the allosteric mechanism, and the choices that physicians after have currently after Scemblix sort of the first, second and third-generation TKIs that have all sorts of safety and tolerability liabilities. So I think we will definitively answer the question with the best mix choices, but that's the areas of highest unmet need currently -- in the long run, I think I described there is that patient population that would like to get to cure rather than just be on chronic treatment for the rest of their life. So the ability to drive patients into a deep molecular response and a durable molecular -- a deep molecular response that leads ultimately to treatment freedom is the primary efficacy unmet need, and we think we have a chance to help contribute to that.
Unknown Analyst
analystAnd I guess sort of a data unfold. What are the most important clinical endpoints beyond MMR that physicians tell you would determine prescribing behavior?
Richard Fair
executiveYes. So I think the regulatory approvable end point, as you pointed out, is achievement of MMR, major molecular response or a 99.9% reduction transcript level. I've already described molecular response, which is a log below MMR. So down to 0.01% transcript level. And the importance of deep molecular response is that a patient who achieves a durable deep molecular response has a chance to go off therapy and remain off therapy for life. So that's an endpoint of interest. I think discontinuations due to adverse events is an important endpoint here. I talked about tolerability and each drug has its own -- all of the drugs share, they're on-target adverse events, those that have off-target effects have different rates of each of those, but I think a good global assessment for clinicians is could you tolerate the therapy and stay on it. So that discontinuation due to AE rate is, I think, an important decision-making as well.
Unknown Analyst
analystAnd when you model the commercial opportunity internally, which patient population contributes the largest share to projected peak sales.
Richard Fair
executiveWhat do you mean by which patient post 2G TKI.
Unknown Analyst
analystPost symbolic patients, intolerance treatment switches.
Richard Fair
executiveWhere are we capturing share from the you're et.
Unknown Analyst
analystYes. Yes.
Richard Fair
executiveCandidly, we haven't really modeled that we look at -- we're looking at it mostly from a prevalence perspective, not a and switching model. That said, I think we will capture portions of all, but I think the biggest improvement we'll make is the improvement we make over the ATP competitive agents, so first, second and third-generation TKIs.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. on the registrational program. So I guess, what aspect of enabled to keep your awake at night?
Richard Fair
executiveSo I can repeat you be there?
Unknown Analyst
analystSo what aspect of enabled to keeps you awake at night?
Richard Fair
executiveIs it enrollment execution, comparative performance, changing treatment paradigm or regulatory interpretation. I'm not worrying about Enable too. The good news about CML is it's not -- we're not blazing new trails in terms of clinical development here. There's a well-established path to approval. -- the clinical trial we're running is novel in the sense that it's a second trial where Smit did a third line plus trial, but the endpoint is well understood. The comparator performance. These are drugs that have been around for a while have generated a lot of data is pretty well understood. At our Phase I meeting this summer, we were able to clarify the major design parameters of the Phase III study. So we have good health authority alignment. And this quarter, we're having it in the Phase II interaction that will allow us to confirm the other details of the protocol. So I guess if I if I were to lay awake it, it would be mostly about execution because I think our plan is really, really clear, but I'm really pleased with the way our team has executed so far, and we've maintained or improved our time lines as we've headed towards first patient in. Sure. And thank you.
Unknown Analyst
analystWhat have you learned from interactions with the regulators that investors may be underappreciating regarding the path to approval? anything.
Richard Fair
executiveYes, I don't think of anything.
Benjamin Hohl
executiveNo. I mean, I think we -- at EHA, we also announced the results at end of Phase I meeting. And I think everything is been relatively predictable here in the CMO market. And so there haven't been too many surprises. I think the upside is the FDA is -- we hear a lot of comments about the FDA, I think our experience so far has been that they're moving ahead. We're getting timely responses. Everything is kind of moving according to plan.
Unknown Analyst
analystAnd how should investors think about the probability, the treatment duration and persistence ultimately become more important commercial lives than early MMR.
Richard Fair
executiveI mean I think in the class, that's been the case, right? These are very long duration therapy. So these patients are diagnosed typically in their mid-50s and are on treatment for life. And a decent version, say, 50% to 60% stay on the first drug they ever take. So I think the treatment duration is the commercial driver here more than share. Obviously, you have to get share to get treatment duration. But yes, I think we expect that's a major driver and it is a feature of this drug class that you tend to see -- if you respond, you tend to see durable responses.
Benjamin Hohl
executiveAnd that's why we talked about the overall package of the drug being really important. It's not just efficacy, but it's the safety, tolerability and the convenience factors that hopefully then drive all of that long duration.
Richard Fair
executiveYes.many for the patients who do switch therapies, as many of them switch for tolerability reasons as efficacy reasons. So it's not all about treatment failure. So I just don't feel good on this medication. So that's why it is a -- it's a both, not either question.
Unknown Analyst
analystSure, sure. I guess with the rise of it, just a general question, the rise of China originated innovation, sort of just your line of sight on what becoming on the competitive landscape. And if you can provide any commentary there and whether the rise in China originated innovation changes the way that you think about the world, either in R&D.
Richard Fair
executiveYes, sure. So I'd say, to answer your question on the CML front, the only assets that we've seen -- are aware of that are coming out of China are additional allosteric TKIs like semi -- and we -- so far, we've seen relatively limited differentiation there. And so I think as far as our position in the market, we feel very secure about it. Obviously, we need to continue to monitor the landscape, and it doesn't mean somebody won't take a stab at a me-too very highly specific ATP competitive agent like ours. But to date, not good, we haven't seen that. As far as thinking about China broadly, -- we are -- our pipeline today consists of ENLIVEN 001, our CML assets program in engraves disease that we hope will advance to the clinic sometime in 2027 and beyond that, we've really worked up our discovery effort. So the building of a pipeline and Enliven beyond those 2 programs will likely be about business development. And obviously, China represents the hottest area for that and would be likely the source of a few pipeline for us important to us.
Unknown Analyst
analystSo my next question, I think you've just answered it, but I'll ask it anyway. So I guess, can the precision design capabilities that produce 1 systematically repeated or those successes largely program specific. But I think the answer to the question is that BD rather than.
Richard Fair
executiveYes. I mean, I think the team that started in live and generated a lot of novel science. The company was really founded about novel chemistry to develop highly specific best-in-class molecules against known biology. And they worked on a number of programs, 2 of them have made it to the clinic to date. -- in 001 in CML 002 is a HER2 program that we're no longer pursuing further in the clinic. And I've mentioned our grades disease program behind it. There were other programs that we developed that we always have the option to taking forward, but we think these are the best and the most deserving clinical development. We're not doing new discovery work in enliven to expand that pipeline further.
Unknown Analyst
analystAnd how would you balance and pursue highly validated targets. We're pursuing novel biology that may offer greater upside but substantially high risk.
Richard Fair
executiveYes. The premise of the company has been to really focus on known biology. I would say the programs that if the clinic to date, obviously, are not just known biology, but targets that are well validated with approved therapies. Our greatest disease program is against very well-understood biology, but would be a first-in-class molecule. So that's novel for us and an exciting opportunity, but the company is not actively pursuing a new biology. That's not in our DNA.
Unknown Analyst
analystAnd when you think, I guess, sort of looking forward to live in 2030, do you envisage a focused oncology company with a small number of highly differentiated products or a broader multi-asset oncology platform, sounds like with former.
Richard Fair
executiveYes. I mean I think our current pipeline is a little interesting in that it's got 1 program in hem/onc and 1 in an autoimmune thyroid condition. So I think that different. I think the long-term view of the company is at some point, it may not make sense to have both of those programs under 1 roof. So we always have the option to monetize 1 or both of the assets in different ways. And then depending on the choices we make there, building the pipeline we build behind that would make sense. But I don't think we have a firm commitment to the direction we're headed in that way.
Unknown Analyst
analystSure. Okay. Back on 1, maybe for the audience, just sort of size out what you think the market opportunity here is in the U.S. and then maybe extend beyond potential ex U.S. U.S. plants.
Richard Fair
executiveSure. So the market opportunity in CML as we see it today, is about a $10 billion total addressable market if you assume a price commensurate with suitable it's about half of a frontline opportunity and half of a second line plus opportunity. And then if you take that globally because of the lower prices due to the availability of earlier generation generic molecules you see about another $6 billion opportunity in Rest of World, so a $16 billion global market today, growing based on price improvements in the U.S. and also the patient population is growing over time, both incidents and extending survival.
Unknown Analyst
analystSure. I guess on capital allocation and the balance sheet, with a strong cash position, in what specific milestones would justify increasing investment rather than preserving capital?
Benjamin Hohl
executiveI mean as we think we have $895 million of cash that gets us into 2030. I think the main thing, as we thought about the rates that we did post the EHA this year, as we really want to get through the top line pivotal data for the second-line positive trial. So I think we want to maintain that flexibility because that has a huge catalyst for our company. and also getting through into 2030 also would potentially allow us to get through top line pivotal data for our frontline pivotal trial as well. So those are 2 pretty important catalysts. Obviously, as we talk about the potential Graves program as well that is built into that runway. So I think those are the main things that we're thinking about getting through in terms of the biggest catalyst.
Unknown Analyst
analystSure. Thank you, Ben. And maybe for investors, just map out the catalyst path that you see for the next 6, 12 and 24 months.
Richard Fair
executiveSure. So Phase III study start this year additional Phase II data from our enable trial -- we'll be initiating a Phase I trial in combination with an allosteric inhibitor to demonstrate potential ability to drive deeper responses for more patients. We'll initiate that trial in '27. So we'd expect data to start to read out from that -- we'll also be initiating a Phase II front-line study in CML, single-arm study with a cooperative group that we anticipated starting in 2027 and should start to read out data and then, of course, potential IND clearance and Phase I data generation from our Graves' disease program, which I can't give a specific guidance to on time line, but I think it's reasonable to assume we could get that into the clinic in the first half of next year, if successful. And if we do that, then data readouts probably follow within the 6- to 12-month time frame from that.
Unknown Analyst
analystSure. We've got a couple of general questions, if you can indulge me here. First 1 is on Aon. So are you implementing AI across your business? And can you point to any specific examples where it's changed the cost or decision or even a POS?
Richard Fair
executiveYes. Yes. I think we're implementing AI in every way that we can figure out how to implement it. It's embedded in all aspects of our business. I think the primary advantages are, I think, accelerating our clinical and regulatory work, getting study start-up, getting regulatory documents generated and those sorts of things are low-hanging fruit that we've tackled and I think are making good use of the technology there. But I see it being used across our team and certainly in our data management group and the way that we are generating and looking at our clinical data and so forth. So specific wins, it's mostly about time lines and efficiently currently, but I can't think of an example where I think it's enhanced our probability of success yet, but again, given what I said about discovery, we're not doing a lot of AI applied travel science because we're really focused on developing the programs that we've already established.
Unknown Analyst
analystAnd last of the general questions, but we've been asking all our companies this just sort of a snap survey. But on the -- I guess, sort of on the regulatory front, sort of where you're most focused. I mean it sounds like FDA but we've got questions like MF and tariffs, et cetera, but it sounds.
Richard Fair
executiveYes, FDA and other global health authorities. -- getting our Phase III study start is the most valuable thing that we're doing. And so that's obviously our primary focus is FDA, EMA and other global health authorities -- but we are turning our attention to MFN and the other things impacting global pricing and launch sexing decisions. Those are important things to be thinking about well ahead of our first approval. So turning our attention to that here in the coming year.
Unknown Analyst
analystSure. And I don't know if it's too early to ask, but I'll ask but just your assumptions around pricing. too early to ask Yes. I won't be doing much of if I didn't Look, I think we're 5 minutes early, but I've come to the end of my questions, but what didn't I ask that I should have or what message would you like to leave investors with I mean I think the message I'd leave you with.
Richard Fair
executiveI don't think there are any unanswered questions, but the message that I'd leave you with is we have a large derisked Phase III asset high probability of success in a $16 billion global market with a best-in-class profile based on 200 patients treated in the Phase I study. And those are hard things to find. So that's interesting for investors, GIC and others. And we have a potential transformative agent in our pipeline. Grave's disease is in an increasingly exciting area. There's a lot of unmet need for patients with thyroid disease. And those patients are poorly served by the available treatments today. And so it's an area of increasing focus for drug development. We think we have a chance to have a best-in-class asset that is oral once a day and with a really attractive clinical profile. If we get there in 2027, we're really excited that could really changed the profile of enliven considerably to a multi-asset and multi-therapeutic area.
Unknown Analyst
analystWonderful. Well, we might park the conversation there. But thank you, Rick. Thank you, Ben.
Richard Fair
executiveThank you -- appreciate it, John. Thank you.
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