Envipco Holding N.V. ($ENVI)
Earnings Call Transcript · March 11, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Simon Bolton
ExecutivesGood morning, everyone, and a very warm welcome to Q4 2025 results presentation from Envipco. My name is Simon Bolton, Group CEO, and I'm joined by 2 colleagues, Mikael Clement, Chief Strategy and IR Officer; and also welcome back to our old friend, Bob Lincoln, President of the U.S. and responsible for the very important U.K. and Irish markets. Maybe before we get into the presentation, just to say that you will have seen the announcement. I'm stepping -- this will be my last quarterly report. I'm stepping down at the end of April, personal decision. And whilst 2025 was a transitional year, you'll see the exciting future that this business has. It's been an honor and pleasure to lead the business and also thanks for your continued interest and engagement in the business. I know many of you have followed the business for many years and hope that support interest continues in the future. Okay. Let's talk about Q4. Again, 2025 overall was a transitional year as some of our existing markets were become delivered and some of the new markets, while started, had yet to really ramp up. So revenue, EUR 23.8 million, so year-on-year, 27% lower. Gross margin, that was impacted by continued investments and also some one-off items, which Mikael will take you through in a little bit more detail. Overall then for the quarter, we had EBITDA of EUR 0.7 million, which included EUR 4.1 million in other income, and we exited the quarter and the year with a healthy cash balance of EUR 60 million. We continue to make targeted long-term investments in the business. And this results in delivery. So we continue operationally to build our share in Romania. We're now up to about 40%. Brownfield markets are also exciting. And we have a little bit more detail later, but we continue to build into Netherlands, working with Statiegeld Nederland and also some key retail customers. We continue to invest in product development and technology. We had 2 really exciting products launches recently, great excitement in Euroshop when we showed these a few weeks ago, and Bob will go through some of those in more detail. And we continue to invest and develop our employees. We exited with 529 in terms of number of employees. And we also launched the Envipco Academy, which supports development and growth of staff as we become a larger and more complex business. That's important. For those who maybe just joined us, Envipco is a global recycling technology business. We've been doing this about 40 years, and we are focused in the recovery of beverage containers. That's what we do. That's what we've done since the beginning, and that's what we'll do in the future. In this segment, there is an unprecedented growth opportunity driven by legislation, particularly the EU packaging and packaging regulation targets 90% recovery by 2029. What does that mean? Well, there's about 100,000, 120,000 reverse vending machines, the actual the equipment that accepts the bottle operating in the market. It's taken 40 years to deliver those units. In the next 5 years, about 200,000 more will be needed. This multibillion-dollar euro market is where we're active in. We continue to invest in products, technology and our platforms delivered with an increasingly experienced and seasoned team. And ultimately, that will drive revenue and profitability, which we are very excited about. Now with more detail for the financial review, let me hand over to Mikael.
Mikael Clement
ExecutivesI'll start out with the P&L as usual. Group revenues in Q4 '25 were $23.8 million, down 27% year-over-year from a very strong Q4 '24. The prime driver behind the decline are lower European RVM sales as existing markets are increasingly maturing and also largely on Greece, which has been a very important market for Envipco over the last few years, is preparing towards a DRS launch. Gross margin, 25.1% in the quarter, adjusted for nonrecurring items 32.3%. I'll come back to that in a later slide. OpEx, EUR 11.1 million, flat year-over-year, reflecting continued investments in the organization. Our headcount is down slightly this quarter from Q3. In addition, we had other income of EUR 4.1 million stemming from the reversal of parts of the earn-out provisions from the Sensibin acquisition. EBITDA this quarter, EUR 0.7 million, down from EUR 4.6 million in Q4 '25. For the year, revenues were EUR 90.4 million, down 18%. Key driver once again are lower European RVM sales, largely explained by lower revenues in Greece and other maturing markets, together with the delayed launch of DRS and activity in Poland and Portugal. Gross margin for the year, 33.3% or down from 37.1% last year. Adjusted for the nonrecurring items, gross margins for the year were in excess of 35%. Operating costs for the year increased by 8% to EUR 41.8 million, with EBITDA ending at EUR 1.2 million. Europe in Q4, EUR 15 million revenues, down more than 35% year-over-year. I've touched upon some of the key drivers here. It's lower RVM sales, key driver. RVM sales, EUR 12.7 million, close to half what it was in Q4 '24 at EUR 24.8 million. We did have our first Poland deliveries in Q4, offsetting some of the declines in other markets, existing markets. We had very positive development in both Sweden and the Netherlands, while Greece, Hungary and Romania were down year-over-year. Romania revenues were -- have been pretty stable through 2025 and Q4 is no exception, but Q4 '24 was very strong, so the year-over-year comparison is down. Program services in Q4 were EUR 2.3 million. North American revenues in 2025 were flat year-over-year for the year as a whole. In Q4, revenues of EUR 8.7 million were down 3%. Adjusting for the weaker dollar, the North American revenues were up by 5%. Key explanatory factor, as you know, program services make up the [ lion's ] share of revenues in North America. Program services were down 13% year-over-year to EUR 6.9 million, largely driven by volume declines, but also some material pricing effects. RVM sales this quarter, EUR 1.9 million, a pickup from where it's been in the last few quarters on replacement sales and new sales into existing customer accounts. A comment on the gross margin. The gross margin this quarter reported at 25.1%. This includes some nonrecurring items. Adjusted for this, the gross margin underlying was 32.3%. The nonrecurring items can be divided largely into 2 key components. One, explaining around 2/3 of this are inventory provisions on end-of-life products. So what we have -- we've replaced the leasing portfolio gradually in -- specifically in the North American markets. We've done quite a bit of product innovations, which has led to some obsolete parts inventory in our business. This has been adjusted this quarter. And then the remaining parts are explained by some year-end true-ups as we harmonize our positions across the entire organization. 32.3% adjusted margin still reflects an increase in our service personnel and a low utilization in our assembly facilities in Europe primarily. So as a result of the lower revenues. Operating costs, as mentioned, flat year-over-year at EUR 11.1 million. We exit the quarter with 529 employees, down 5 employees from Q3. We have EUR 4.1 million in other income from the reversal of parts of the earn-out provision. We will continue to maintain a disciplined approach to manage our operating costs, investing to make sure that we are positioned towards new markets, but also managing this in relation to the activity levels. Over to the balance sheet. Not very large changes in the fourth quarter. The total balance sheet is down slightly on a reduction in working capital. Our working capital is down by roughly EUR 5 million, driven by both the reduction in inventory levels and accounts receivables. In addition, our trade creditors are up slightly. On the equities and liabilities side, a reduction in our borrowings explains the change from Q3 to Q4. So balance sheet totaled EUR 159 million, down from EUR 165 million, and we exit the quarter with EUR 59.9 million in cash, down from EUR 62.7 million in Q3. So the cash flow in Q4 started out the quarter with EUR 62.7 million, a working capital release added EUR 4.9 million, offset by investments of EUR 4.1 million, driven by CapEx in excess of EUR 3 million and some capitalized R&D at EUR 1 million this quarter. And then repayment of borrowings, minus EUR 3.5 million, ending the quarter with EUR 59.9 million in cash. For the year, starting out with EUR 30.7 million in cash, working capital build of EUR 9.7 million largely explained by lower receivables. CapEx total, both CapEx and capitalized R&D at EUR 9 million, relatively flat with the previous year and then plus EUR 47.9 million in cash flow from financing, largely explained by the private placement in Q3. So with that, I would like to give the word on to Bob.
Robert Lincoln
ExecutivesThank you, Mikael, and hello, and good morning to everyone. I am going to spend a bit of time on the product portfolio, particularly to give some insight on how we're positioning our products to win quite large RFPs, not just in the U.K. but in Poland. If you look at our product portfolio, it's very broad. So we go from very small applications in convenience stores to medium-sized convenience stores to the middle tier, which are traditional supermarkets, all the way up to Maxi stores with our backroom systems and of course, the quantum, which has proven to be the gold standard in bulk feed technology. But a couple of these products are very critical as we move through these large RFPs, particularly that are near term in the U.K. First off, the compact product. Now our team in the U.K. has mapped every single store throughout the U.K. and 75% of the store count in that country is small stores, convenience or medium-sized convenience stores. This is a very important product to help us attack the lion's share of stores that are out there. And this product has very significant product attributes. One of the things we've done is we've engineered a lot of the cost out of the platform. How do we do that? On the in-feed, we are using AI technology to validate the container, the barcode and the shape, which eliminates cameras and cabling, allowing the machine to be less costly. We've also designed a new compactor technology that sits much higher in the machine, allowing for the bin below to be much larger. So it's a very high-performing machine in this form factor. The other brilliant part of the platform, it's truly plug and play. For these stores, you roll the machine in, you plug it into standard electric and you're running immediately. It also can be moved around the store. And these points resonate with the customers we're talking to about it because during high merchandising seasons like a Christmas, they want to be able to move the machine around with one store personnel. You can do this very easily with the compact. So the product also is a bit shorter than the standard RVM and the area on top can be used for merchandising. And it seems like not that big of a criteria, but it is resonating quite heavily with these accounts because they're giving up floor space already. Now they can merchandise on top of the machine with a captive audience that's using the machine. We've also been asked by Tier 1 retailers to install a monitor above the machine so they can run promotions real time to customers using the machine. So very important product, huge market potential in the U.K. and in Poland. But what's really important about it, it's kind of a gateway product because if you have an account, let's say, in the U.K. that has 2,000 store locations, and we have a fantastic product with this and FLEX to penetrate 1,500, it's very easy for us to then start to position our higher technology products. And Simon referenced this earlier, but this product called Magna, which we introduced at Euroshop really has a lot of very positive features. First off, it's a fully environmental machine. So this machine can work at minus 20 C up to plus 40 C, so it can be placed outside and work perfectly. And we know from the U.K. that a lot of retailers want the machines outside, either under the vestibule or in the kiosk, and this machine meets that need. The other thing the machine has is an accessibility kit. Some retailers want a machine, a bespoke machine for the handicap to use. So we can graft onto this machine, brail audio and different buttons at the reach height for folks who want to use the machine that are handicapped. Importantly, the machine is very modular. So you can take this machine and let's say we go to a retailer and we say, let's not over CapEx your commitment for the go live. We'll start discretely, say, for Magna to start with. And then when it ramps, if they need to add a machine within 48 hours, we can come in and put a machine next to it. But importantly, that additional in feed can feed an existing bin. So they don't have to put an entirely new machine in. They can get another queuing station by adding the machine. We can also take it away and move it to other stores. So that flexibility, that modularity of the platform is very important. Additionally, there's a dynamic in this business where you can look at a spec sheet and say, oh, the bin full is x number of containers. But in reality, when those containers are ejected from the compactor, they nest in the bin. And when they do that, they come up the sidewall of the bin and they cut the bin full sensor causing store personnel to go to the machine and shake it down. Well, that's OpEx. And this machine has a self-automated self-leveling device, so the bins fill perfectly evenly. And when you're looking at an account that has 1,000 stores with this product, that reduction of trips to the machine across the life of the platform evolves into a huge number and a big advantage to the company on positioning this product. So gateway product with compact and FLEX, high-performing product for the middle tier that we can then move them up to backroom systems or to quantum. Now we've had some advancements in quantum as well. Now the standard quantum requires 4 parking spaces. And some retailers can't give up that many parking spaces. So we designed a smaller version of this machine. We did a lot of engineering in terms of the storage area. So we are reducing the capacity of the containers, but it's modest. So this is a machine that only takes 2 car spaces, which is incredible. It's also very good logistically to move this machine around. If you look at a market like Greece, which has a huge confederation of islands, this machine is very easy to move into applications like that. So this brings more customer targets in play because it's a smaller unit and takes less parking spaces. Additionally, when you look at Quantum and Quantum has been just a huge success. We have one in every single market we operate in, and the consumer response to it has been dramatic. But it does require retailers to trench electric to the site, and that requires permitting and expense. And it is a barrier that we need to push through. The product is strong enough to push through it, but now we have a solar version. So this machine doesn't require trenching that you can simply drop in, run it on solar. It saves OpEx because we're not using electric. So this is another great product to further widen our target audience for Quantum. So that gives you a preview of some of our new products and how we position our products. Now let's spend some time on the U.K. The U.K. is moving through the commercial cases urgently, and we're involved in every single Tier 1, Tier 2 debate. We very much like our position. And these commercial cases are going to come to fruition very soon in several weeks because the requirement for these retailers to roll this out, essentially all retailers rolling out at the same time to meet the October 2027 go live is a huge undertaking, and they're taking this extremely seriously. So how do we feel about the U.K.? Well, first off, we had a phenomenal success in Scotland. The same team in Scotland is prosecuting the U.K. case. And these are highly skilled professionals. So we feel very good about our position. We feel very optimistic that we're going to be able to announce orders in the short term. And the Tier 1 section, which is obviously quite large, will largely be decided in the first half of the year. So the activity is high. Our position is strong, and we're looking forward to a very nice result in the U.K. And with that, I will turn it back over to Simon.
Simon Bolton
ExecutivesOkay. Bob, thank you very much. Excellent. Very exciting for the U.K. I want to show this slide again. This is, I know, a favorite of many. So I think Bob has given us a very good insight into the U.K. Clearly, as we head towards 2029, we still have a large number of markets to come. Obviously, we talk a lot about the near term, Poland, Portugal, Greece, as we mentioned, it's still to be determined the exact form, but certainly, there's -- we understand there's plans to introduce a deposit return scheme this year. And then going slightly further forward, we have Spain, France, towards the back end of that period. And also, we've added one more market this time, Serbia. Again, in reference to the EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation, which requires 90% recovery using a DRS by 2029. That country is now have plans to introduce a scheme. So remains very significant activity. A reminder, we generate growth through 4 areas. We have now an expanding existing business. So even those countries that went live a few years ago are still requiring services, of course, and also additional machines. Greenfield, new markets. Bob talked about the U.K., but also, of course, Poland, Portugal, Brownfield, I'll talk a little bit about the Netherlands. So using technology to penetrate an existing market and grow and then occasional M&A example, Sensibin Technology Group a couple of years ago. In terms of Netherlands, look, a great example, like Sweden was before it of Envipco using our technology to penetrate an existing market where we didn't have a foothold. And we're in the process of working with private operators, working with the opera Statiegeld Nederlands to actually roll out Quantum across the country. Very, very positive. That's one of the first that we actually put in place with Bungas, and that is now done getting on for 8 million containers, really fantastic. Poland. A lot of discussion about Poland, big market, of course. It's gone live. So officially, the market went live in October 2025, but very, very few containers before Christmas, but we see the container number increasing. With that comes the demand for machines. So even though we weren't successful in a couple of larger deals autumn last year, we still have a big market to go after. We've been successful in that. In last update, we said we were about 300 orders. We're up to about 1,000 as we work through frame agreements with most of the large store networks in the country. So we continue to work with those groups. We've got some pictures there taken around Warsaw of actual installations. So this is not press release. This is not general frame agreements. We are working hard day in, day out to actually get units on the ground, which we think is the most important thing. And that's really that kind of no nonsense type approach is really resonating well with customers. And we will continue to do that such that we are confident about achieving our target market share. In Portugal, since the last update, we've had a couple of great announcements. One, up to 50 quantum with [ STL ] Portugal. So a network of Quantum's from the -- early in the scheme, which is great to support their recovery targets. And then another frame agreement with a large Iberian supermarket, which will roll out over the next 12 months. We've moved like Poland, we've moved to a new location to support that rollout and support the service, expanding the technical team and really ready to get busier and get going further in that market. Overall then, we're building momentum at Envipco. So 200,000 units is multibillion opportunity. 2025 was a transitional year, but you see really great strength as we go into 2026. Poland, Portugal, building momentum, great case, lots of commercial activity in the U.K. All of that bodes extremely well for the business. And of course, we maintain a disciplined approach. We've improved working capital management. We've kept an eye on OpEx. CapEx is specific and focused, and we will keep that disciplined approach as we grow the business. So I think with that, that finishes the presentation. Thank you very much. And I think, Mikael, we may have some questions. So the next event is May.
Mikael Clement
ExecutivesMaybe I understand there were some sound issues in the first few minutes of the presentation.
Simon Bolton
ExecutivesYes. Okay. Great.
Mikael Clement
ExecutivesGreat idea. Can you maybe just do the intro?
Simon Bolton
ExecutivesOkay. So good morning, everyone. So we're in [indiscernible]. So yes, my name is Simon Bolton. And once again, I'm joined by my good colleagues, Mikael Clement, Chief IR and Strategy Officer; and our old friend, Bob Lincoln. And also, I did announce that I would be -- a reminder that as an announcement, I will be transitioning out of the business at the end of April. And just to reconfirm, it's been an honor and pleasure leading this business. So this will be the last quarterly update that I give. And as you saw, it's a transitional year in 2025, but the business is positioned extremely well for the future, and I'm confident that the best years are ahead for this business. So that's, in summary, what we went through the first couple of minutes. And I think now we've got even more questions, right, Mikael?
Mikael Clement
ExecutivesYes, we do. I can start with the gross margin. Adjusted gross margin is down from Q3 to Q4 despite slightly higher revenues. What's the key reason for this? Well, we are investing in service personnel in Poland, in Portugal to be able to install machines as we move ahead. Those costs are into cost of goods sold, and there is a further increase from Q3 into Q4 on that. So that weighs a little bit. On that relative change. And then there are also, I think, some geographical mix changes and some product mix changes that explain the decline from Q3 to Q4. Yes. CEO transition, when do you expect that completed? Well, in the press release on January 12th, the Board said that the process of recruiting a new CEO was well underway that Simon would be staying on with the company until April 30th, and that the Board did expect to be able to announce a transition before that time. I have not heard anything yet since that. So I assume that still stands.
Simon Bolton
ExecutivesYes, very much.
Mikael Clement
ExecutivesThen we have a question on the deliveries in Poland and the revenues in Poland, a couple -- a few questions here. I think I should take that as well. I mean in Q3, we announced firm orders of around 500 RVMs in Poland. And we -- with delivery both in 2025 and into 2026, we delivered roughly half of that volume in the fourth quarter of '25 in Poland. Let's see here if that's more. Yes, there's another question on the inventory provisions and year-end true-ups. Just to repeat that then. So from 25% to 32.3% gross margins, those are nonrecurring elements. The majority of those stem from inventory provisions, and that is an adjustment on certain parts inventory for RVMs that are no longer in use. So obsolete parts inventory largely. And then we have centralized our finance function through 2025 with the addition of a new CFO, Patrick Gierman, a new team based in Amersfoort. That team has made sure that we're now harmonizing all our accounting across all organizations in the group. So some of those explain the remaining one-off items in Q4.
Simon Bolton
ExecutivesYes.
Mikael Clement
ExecutivesSee what we have here. We've done this Poland. Romania, you said that you continue to build market share in Romania. Where are you now? And what potential do you continue to see in Romania?
Simon Bolton
ExecutivesYes. No, I think that's a great question. As we said before, Romania has been a great success story for us. So we've been operating in the country as a supplier manufacturer for over 10 years. We have a main European manufacturing center there. And obviously, we participated in the DRS deposit return scheme. As we -- as the country exited, they're recovering about 80%, 83%, which is a fantastic achievement because they probably came from maybe 30%. So it shows the power of deposit return schemes. But to get from 83% to 90%, 90% plus, that's hard yards, and that will require continued investment. So we do see continued investment, which is obviously very positive for us. And I think there will be opportunities for things like increasing Quantum deliveries, municipal solutions to get that final 10%.
Mikael Clement
ExecutivesYes. Makes sense. Then there's a question on Ireland. Can you give an update on your performance in Ireland, which you reported was still lagging in terms of market share?
Robert Lincoln
ExecutivesYes. I mean in the Irish market, there's still a reluctance on some retailers to uptake a portfolio of our smaller machines, but we're grinding on it day in, day out, and we expect our share in traditional supermarkets to grow. But what's interesting about Ireland is Quantum. We did our first Quantum installation at a SPAR location in Ireland, and it's been an unbelievable success. And coming out of that success, we now have 7 Quantum's already sold and installed and 3 in the pipeline and more to follow. And what's happened is we took a convenience store at SPAR, we put a Quantum in and the volume went from 3,000 containers to 500,000 to 600,000 containers and ramp very quickly. Now when you're getting a handling fee of a little over EUR 0.02 and you're doing 600,000 containers, that's a significant revenue stream to the retailer. And half of the traffic at the Quantum location has been driven into the store itself. So they get all the incremental sales. So I think Quantum is going to be playing an increasing role in Ireland.
Simon Bolton
ExecutivesMaybe just to build on that, I think we see this as a real theme, right? We have -- so Quantum in Ireland, I think we're seeing, obviously, the great order in Portugal. And I think now pretty much every market we operate in, including the U.S., we see either the technology coming in, in old and mature markets, Brownfield markets or even like in Portugal, an order being placed for Quantum before the scheme starts. So I think with the additional product formats that you talked about, Bob, Solar, Quantum S, I think Quantum is an incredibly strong platform that more and more markets are understanding. And I think certainly, we referenced Euroshop, which was the international retail fair a few weeks ago, incredible interest in Quantum. So I think this is a real product platform that's unique Envipco holds a lot of value. And I think now the proof points of hundreds and hundreds of these being rolled out is really very, very powerful. So I think that's really exciting.
Mikael Clement
ExecutivesThen there is a question on France. We talked about a pilot program in France. What type of potential are we're seeing in the French market?
Simon Bolton
ExecutivesYes, great. So France has always been on our famous Gantt chart. We strongly believe there will be a deposit scheme in France. It may have different -- slightly different characteristics to some of the others that operate in Europe, but we believe it will come in. And the early scheme, which we did announce sales for last year is around refillables, refillable glass. So France has started with that with a pilot, which is going quite well. That could be expanded and then that could be expanded also to include single-use containers. So I think France is going to happen. We've got -- we're working well in France. We've had an entity there for some time, and we'll continue to stay tight with all the stakeholders to see what we can do to participate. Clearly, France is a big country. So that is another 25,000 to 35,000 unit market depending on the characteristics. So it's exciting. But it will come probably towards the end of the window.
Mikael Clement
ExecutivesYes. Then there are a couple of questions in regards to the LOI in Poland. And the 1,500 orders. Number one is the LOI [indiscernible]. And number two, what's the status?
Simon Bolton
ExecutivesYes, definitely. So the 1,500 that we said before, 1,000 that we updated, they are smaller orders from independent stores. So these could be 1 unit or they could be up to kind of 10 or 20 units. It does not include the LOI, which is still valid. And obviously, we announced that some time ago. What we have been doing is we have been working with that particular customer to look at how the scheme is developing and also the product and technology selections that may be most optimum to them. And they've taken that advice on board. And what they've done is they've reconstituted how they're thinking about that. We're still working that through with the customer. And hopefully, we make some announcements soon. Certainly, the overall magnitude, we expect to be similar, but that's not included. And what isn't included is we still have clearly some larger retail chains that have not made a decision yet. And as you just saw on the slide, we have a really great local commercial team. Not only are we going for and leveraging our frame agreements, but we're also following up hard on these large midsized chains that haven't made a decision. And again, hopefully, we'll make some announcements. obviously, we'll make announcements when we can on hopefully the success in that area.
Mikael Clement
ExecutivesAre there any new developments in the U.S.
Robert Lincoln
ExecutivesYes. I mean we continue to focus very much on California, and we are very close to installing the first Quantum in California. It might be followed by 2 more Quantum. And what's interesting about California, I won't digress too much because it's such a complicated market. But essentially, it's called the way and pay market. So customers come in with a bag, they put it on a scale. There's an attendant, they weigh it, they pay them cash and they go. So that's a very inefficient model because you have no compaction, no exact accounting. So where Quantum comes in is we can count the material exactly. So we eliminate shrink. But importantly, logistically, moving all these full containers all over a very expensive state, there's a real reason to use Quantum to capture better logistics savings and reduce shrink on count. So we are very optimistic you will see a Quantum and maybe a couple of Quantum's in California this year.
Mikael Clement
ExecutivesGreat. Good. And then there's a question on existing markets. How should you extrapolate kind of the development in some of these existing markets? There's the softness we've seen in '25.
Simon Bolton
ExecutivesYes. Look, I think, as you mentioned, Mikael, I think we had a very strong -- in a couple of these new markets, we had a real strong 4Q '24, which kind of gave quite a tough comparable. I would say, look, Romania, certainly, we see continued developments in Romania. Hungary, it's stable. So it's come down a lot because now we're kind of over 2 years since the scheme went live. But we do see -- continue to see opportunities. And then we have other existing markets now like Sweden, like the U.S. that Bob has referred to. So I think we've got -- I think in those existing markets, we've got a solid stability. And then I think you'll see the new markets as they start to accelerate add to that, which will obviously have a material impact on our revenue, which we expect to come through during the course of 2026. And of course, as we've said before, some of these markets now we're working out of the warranty period. So that will start to drive through, and we'll see expansion and development of European service business as the installed base has increased and that -- again, that comes out of the warranty period.
Mikael Clement
ExecutivesI think we have time for one more. And then it's really on the visibility of the outlook. What are you seeing now as the key -- given 2025, what are you seeing as -- what visibility do you have on new developments?
Simon Bolton
ExecutivesRight. Maybe we can all answer that. So maybe we start with Bob.
Robert Lincoln
ExecutivesWell, obviously, the U.K. is quite a large market. I mean we estimate at 35,000 machines. In my view, it's going to be more than that. And so that's going to come out of the ground commercially this year. So that's -- obviously, we have a pretty good outlook because we're so deep into the commercial cases now. We have a good sense of where we stand. So U.K. is the prominent one, I think, at least near term in terms of commercial.
Simon Bolton
ExecutivesYes, absolutely. And I think just to add to that, I think whereas the U.K. will order flow this year, deliver some revenue in '27. I think Poland and Portugal, we're starting to see now proper momentum. I think -- and that really is containers on the shelf, customers demanding their deposit back. And I think if we just go back a couple of years, there's some parallels to maybe Hungary, very few containers on the shelf. There's soft activity. As soon as the containers come on the shelf, that heavy summer suddenly it kind of accelerated. And so I think we're going to see some parallels there. So we are very positive about both of those markets. And as I said, I think we've got a good, stable level of business in the other existing markets. And of course, we have Greece kind of coming up on the side. Now we've been very successful. As you mentioned, '25 was a lower year in Greece as the focus moved from municipal infrastructure to preparing for the DRS. Clearly, DRS possibly coming in, in this year gives us good opportunities. So I think for me, they are the key elements in terms of growth.
Mikael Clement
ExecutivesThat's great.
Simon Bolton
ExecutivesOkay. Fantastic. Well, once again, everyone, thanks for your time and attention, Q4. It's been great to present our business. Thank you very much. And the next time is in May. Thank you.
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