Equitable Holdings, Inc. (EQH) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

All right. Good morning, everyone. We're privileged here to have Equitable with us with Mark Pearson as well as Robin Raju. But before that, let me just get started with -- for important disclosures, please see the Morgan Stanley research disclosure website at www.morganstanley/researchdisclosure.com. Taking a photographs and the use of recording devices is also not allowed. If you have any questions, please reach out to the Morgan Stanley sales representative.

So with that out of the way, maybe if we can start with just the general business as a whole. If we look back on Investor Day, there was about a year ago, and you gave us a lot of key financial targets going out all the way to 2027. Looking back, can you talk about the progress you've made so far? And what are the areas where you think you can focus on more in terms of additional initiatives?

Well, thank you, Bob, and good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining us. Yes, 10th of May 2023 was our fifth anniversary since our IPO, and we thought it was a good time to have our inaugural Investor Day. We went out with our strategy, and we went out with guidance. The 3 most important ones were that we would grow cash generation by 50% to $2 billion by 2027. This would be helped by EPS CAGR of 12% to 15%. And we had confidence then to increase our payout ratio, which was 40% to 60% at the time of the IPO to 60% to 70%. In terms of how things are going since then -- well, the first thing I think I should say is the opportunity and the environment is the best that I've seen for decades for -- particularly for individual retirement. Why is that? Well, firstly, the demographics are strongly in our favor. 4.1 million Americans will turn age 65 in this next year. Secondly, higher interest rates. Higher interest rates are very favorable for our ability to attract clients into -- particularly into annuity products. And thirdly, I think our business model. As you know, Equitable plays in all parts of the value chain. We are very strong on the distribution through our affiliated sales force, which gives us about 1/3 of our individual retirement sales as well as strong third-party capability. We are a product manufacturer. We are the people who invented the whole new RILA retirement class, which is the fastest-growing part of the market today. And thirdly, we have a 62% stake in AllianceBernstein and Asset Management. So progress against those targets has gone well in this environment. Our North Star, if you like, is the cash we generate. This year, we are projecting cash flows of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion, so well on our way to the $2 billion mark. Our payout ratio was at the top end of that 60% to 70% last year. And in quarter one this year, we saw growth in our EPS of about 18%. This was higher than target as we sort of clawed back some of the elevated mortality we saw in 2023 and lower VII. So conditions are very, very strong and the progress is good against those targets.

All right. So if we can focus a little bit on the private market side. Part of your guidance is obviously contingent on scaling the private markets and wealth management business. You placed $9.6 billion out of the $20 billion commitment with AllianceBernstein Private Market platform. And then you're also guiding to about $110 million of general account investment income target. Can you talk about the incremental opportunities there, especially given interest rate and everything else where the macro environment we spoke about so far, should we expect you to accomplish those targets earlier than you initially thought?

Sure. So the 2 numbers that we gave as part of our Investor Day or to support our Investor Day, cash flow targets was increasing our commitment to AB's private credit business or private markets business to $20 billion and then also picking up an additional $110 million of incremental income for the general account. . So if you look in the Equitable general account, private credit is roughly 14% today. It will grow over time to about 15% to 20% as we see good yield opportunities and believe in that illiquidity premium in asset classes like private placement, infrastructure and also residential loans. Within that, we've committed to $20 billion to AllianceBernstein. We should be complete through the first half of that, that $10 billion in the second quarter. Data says they'll enable the AllianceBernstein to grow their private markets business to $63 billion through the first quarter. If you recall, for every dollar Equitable has put into historically into AllianceBernstein, AB has been able to attract $3 to $4 from that. So it's a huge growth opportunity for the overall business. AB's goal is to generate -- or to have $90 billion to $100 billion of AUM in their private markets platform by 2027, and that represents or will represent about 20% of the revenues in AllianceBernstein. That's up from 10% now. So it's a pretty significant increase in shift in that business. On the income side, we gave $110 million incremental income target as a result of that growth that we're getting in the private market side. We're about more than halfway through that income goal. If markets remain at these levels, and we continue to see growth in the general account, we shouldn't have any issue hitting both the income and also the $20 billion private markets platform at AllianceBernstein. Now we do like the asset class as well in private credit quite a bit. But it is very important that when you're taking enhanced investment risk that you hold capital for that risk. And that's why you can see Equitable quite active on advocacy efforts with the NAIC to ensure that appropriate capital is being held in general account portfolios for the risk-taking across the wide spectrum of private credit out there. As we think it's important for the sustainability for the insurance industry. So we're investing in the asset class. We believe in the growth capabilities it gets to AllianceBernstein and the income, but we also want to make sure we're advocating that you're holding the appropriate capital for the risk that you take in those types of asset classes through our advocacy efforts.

Yes. So that actually is pretty interesting in the sense that if we segue into cash flow, right, at this point in time, I think you talked about $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion of cash generation in 2024. And about half of that is coming from asset management and wealth management. Going forward, as you think about growing into the $2 billion mark by 2027, are you expecting a vast majority of that to come from the wealth management and asset management side, just given how optimistic you are with the private markets and everything else?

So at Investor Day, we said we're going to grow cash flows from $1.3 billion to $2 billion by 2027, and cash flows is our North Star. As Mark mentioned earlier, we're on track this year to generate $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion of cash flows. We define cash flow generation as cash upstream from the asset and wealth businesses that go right to the holding company and then capital generated in the insurance subsidiaries above their RBC targets. And we're on track for the $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion this year. And 50% this year will continue to come from the asset and wealth businesses. I think that's an important number. If you look relative to our peer group of people that were normally compared against very few people can say 50% of their cash flows has come from asset and wealth businesses. As -- the reason why that's important is because it gives you consistency in your cash flow and it enables us to have comfort in that 60% to 70% payout ratio. So it's a really important part of the Equitable story. It's driving cash flows by having a big portion of it come from asset and wealth businesses. Through 2027, we're going to increase the cash flow to $2 billion, 3 primary drivers. That's coming from organic growth in the retirement business, net of the capital that we invest in that business. Second is organic growth in AllianceBernstein and our Wealth Management business. And third is going to be the runoff of our legacy business as it's now above -- it's now past its peak reserving period, so it kicks off capital for us as we go forward. Because of the growth in the asset and wealth businesses expect asset and wealth continue to be 50% of the cash that we generate by 2027. And that's up from 17% from IPO. So if there are opportunities to increase that, we'll look at that. But I think 50% right now is the right number to look at and think about for Equitable.

Certainly an impressive business mix for sure. So maybe if we think about alternative investments, right, like I think first quarter on the earnings call, you mentioned that the second quarter's alternative investments return will likely to be in line with the first quarter's alternative performance. Given the current environment, when do you think that will normalize back to a more 8% to 12% target, so to speak? And can you maybe also talk about the real estate part of that as well as maybe any of the other aspect of that you feel that was worth pointing out as well?

So alternatives is about 3% of Equitable's general account. You'd expect it to maintain that type of size over the short term, but over the medium term, it will probably decrease just because the shift in our product portfolio has gone to more shorter duration spread-based products like our RILA business, that don't need alternatives to support a longer date liability. In the first quarter, we had about a 5.6% annualized return for that portfolio. We'd expect that to have a similar mid-single-digit return in the second quarter. That's about $0.05 to $0.07 of EPS impact in the second quarter below our 8% low end of the 8% to 12% target. And it's really coming from real estate equity, real estate equity with a higher interest rates happening this year. It's continued to drag the portfolio below it's 8% to 12% long-term target. We'd expect the portfolio to recover in the second half of the year closer to the low end or slightly below the 8% to 12%. And then hopefully, next year, if interest rates are stabilized and continued growth in equity markets, we'd get back to our long-term target of 8% to 12%.

Got it. So 8% for the second half of the year is what you're expecting?

Yes, slightly. And then mid-single digit for the second quarter, about $0.05 to $0.07 EPS impact.

Right. Okay. Got it. So if we can shift gears a little bit to the core business, right? Part of the strategy Equitable talks about is defend and grow its core business. And the U.S. retirement market, like you said previously, is an incredibly attractive market today. And -- but also, it's tracking a lot of competitors. Under the current environment, can you talk about your competitive advantage? I know we mentioned a little bit about it, but if we can just dig into the competitive advantage for Equitable as well as how you plan to sustain this competitive advantage over time? And then like how we should think about that as part of the earnings growth going forward?

Well, thanks, Bob. Equitable today is the #1 player in the RILA market. In fact, RILA was a category of retirement product that we developed more than 10 years ago. You're right that there is more attention in there. But as we see the pie growing our sales and our net flows are at record levels in quarter 1 again. RILA sales for Equitable were 33% up last year and have increased another 8% in quarter one. So you can see that the market is growing. Competitively, in addition to the innovation, I think I'd draw your attention very much to the distribution capabilities that we have. 1/3 of our retirement sales come from Equitable advisers, our affiliated sales force. And 2/3 are coming from third-party relationships that we have. It's important as well in looking at RILA by definition, its name, it's a registered product. So that in itself is a strategic moat. And there are much fewer players in the RILA space, about 8 or 9 players compared to the fixed annuity space, where there are more than 50 players because that is a nonregistered product and easier to get in to. So conditions are very favorable with demographics and interest rates. Our capabilities are very high to keep innovating in the wireless space, particularly through our distribution capabilities. So we're in a very strong position there and very confident about our growth prospects.

Okay. So another thing maybe if we can look at is in-plan guaranteed opportunities. This is an opportunity where you kind of talked about a lot of opportunities for in-plan annuities following the passage of the SECURE Act. And what is the addressable market for you in this particular case? And how should we expect that to flow into earnings as we go forward?

Well, we're very excited about the in-plan guarantee market over the longer term. If you think about it, what most of the retirement products in the market in the U.S. are dealing with the accumulation phase of retirement planning. Very few products exist that take very volatile investment accounts and turn it into a paycheck into secure income for participants life. The SECURE Act, as you say was legislation that provided a safe harbor for plan sponsors to recommend annuities inside of 401(k). So the addressable market 401(k) is today is a $7 trillion market in the U.S. And about half of that $7 trillion is in target date funds. So the opportunity is immense. I think also the opportunity to do some social good is immense as well. The U.S. retirement market today is $38 trillion, but the retirement savings gap is assessed at $137 trillion by 2050. So there was a huge societal need here. And I think it's good to be in a business that is making profits and creating value at the same time as doing society a good thing as well. Specifically for Equitable, we've been in the market for 10 years now. AB first started marketing these products more than 10 years ago. And we also have a marketing partnership with BlackRock. BlackRock provide retirement services to 35 million workers in the U.S., and we have this arrangement with them. BlackRock today has 14 clients that have signed up for implant guarantees in their target date funds, and they have a combined assets under management of $27 billion. We will announce our first inflows at our second quarter earnings. We will give the number to the market then of how much we have received. So investors will see the net flows come through quickly. And earnings, as I said earlier, will take a little bit of time to come through as these funds build.

Looking forward to the second quarter call in that case. So another thing that, obviously, you stand out among the competitors is your 60% to 70% payout ratio. And if we think about the strong balance sheet with $1.9 billion at the holding company and then generating about, call it, $400 million to $500 million of operating income probably like over the last 4 quarters, give or take, right? And then last year, I think you returned 72% of the reported operating earnings, and you're currently running towards the high end of that 60% to 70% payout ratio this year. Given everything we've said so far, the optimism around retirement, the broader macro environment, so to speak. Should we expect you to land on the higher end of that payout ratio? And also, how should we think about 1 year capital flexibility, but also the ability to perhaps exceed that 60% to 70% down the road. Is there a way, as management, you guys think about those things?

Yes. So we do have a strong capital position and conservative balance sheet. And Bob, that enables us to do both. It enables us to invest for the growth and also meet our 60% to 70% payout ratio. If you look in the first quarter as a proof point, we had record sales in our individual retirement businesses that we needed to fund. We also have a strong pipeline of new sales coming through with the BlackRock LifePath Paycheck product coming in. So we're seeing that growth, and we have the demand on that. And because of the strength of the business and the 50% of cash flow is coming from asset wealth, we can invest in that growth. And in the first quarter, we returned 68% payout ratio to shareholders. So continue to expect us to invest in growth and take advantage of this unique market opportunity we have and meet our 60% to 70% payout ratio for shareholders. We do have excess cash at the holding company. We have $1.9 billion of cash as of the first quarter with our intention to hold $500 million to cover 2x interest expense. You can expect us to bring that down gradually over time as we think that's probably the best use versus doing some big special dividend or a big share buyback all at once. We expect to see gradually bring that over time, continue to invest for new growth opportunities and return capital with the consistency that we've shown historically.

Also maybe one thing we talked about -- or one thing we've seen over the past, call it, several years now, is the volatility was in mortality, right? Obviously, it feels like mortality is normalizing for the better. But do you still expect mortality to continue to be somewhat of a volatile number within the results? And can you maybe talk about your general view there and how we should think about as we move to second half of the year as well as for 2025?

So mortality, it's been good to have 2 consecutive quarters where mortality has come in line with results. That's led us to give that full year guidance of $200 million to $300 million. We're also actively getting feedback from reinsurers like the best source of understanding what's happening in mortality trends speaking with the reinsurers. And that is incorporated in the guidance that we've given the $200 million to $300 million. . Obviously, during the pandemic, we saw that pull forward of older age deck claims. That's consistent to what we've heard from the reinsurers. And we still expect some elevated mortality post-pandemic as we call it the endemic and that's built into that $200 million to $300 million range. We guide you towards that full year range rather than going back to individual quarters because we do have older age policies. And if one policy dies, you could see a movement from one quarter to another quarter. That being said, we still are -- always look to optimize our capital position across different businesses, and we continue to explore opportunities to optimize capital in the Protection Solutions businesses while reducing volatility as well. As we know for a business that is only 10% of our earnings, it generates a lot more attention than the cash flows that it generates. So we want to get the focus on our retirement businesses in asset and wealth and continue to optimize the capital protection.

Got it. Maybe if we can just also touch a little bit on the commercial mortgage loan a little bit. So this is about 18% of your general account as of first quarter. You're not really facing a maturity [ wall ] problem, if I understand it correctly. But can you maybe talk about your commercial mortgage loan portfolio and think about the risks and perhaps maybe even opportunities in this area? Or how should we think about your portfolio there at this point?

There's 18% of the total general account that includes about 3% is agricultural loans. So traditional commercial mortgage loans is about 15% of the overall portfolio. It's a good asset class to have within a general account. It provides good risk-adjusted returns. And fits well when you have long-dated liabilities to help match and manage through different maturity cycles. Our LTVs that we reported in the first quarter were 66% for the overall portfolio. That takes into account the fact that Equitable values their properties on an annual basis. You can't always just compare LTVs across the industry, you've got to look on if the properties are valued annually and that's what Equitable does we think that's better disclosure overall. Obviously, the office sector gets a lot of attention within the CML portfolio. Our office sector is probably 5% of our general account. And we've seen that office sector get marked, which has driven the increase of the LTVs to 66% in aggregate. As our office portfolio is down 40% from peak levels, that's consistent with the market indices. So meaning the portfolio is valued along with where the market is over time. Important to look at though is the underlying characteristics of the portfolio. It's obviously important on we're in real estate, where you play in the type of buildings you play. So we're in attractive markets. We've stayed away from a lot of the troubled cities Class A buildings, over 90% occupancy. And the most important metric that I look at for office is the debt-to-service coverage ratio. Our number has actually increased year-over-year. So we're at 2.3x now. We were at 2.1 and that reflects the underlying operating results of the underlying loans that we have, so they're performing well. We continue -- we would look to invest in the place, but we haven't really seen the opportunities that meet our threshold for investing in the commercial mortgage loans, especially offices as a lot of the investment opportunities that have come to us have been not meeting our standards across the board. So we'll continue to invest, but it's got to meet our standard in Class A high-quality buildings. That's not something that we see many come through to yet.

Okay. Before I move on, I just want to see if there's anyone in the audience that want to ask a question. Okay. So we can call it out later. Maybe last one for me is that as we look at the growth and opportunities that we just talked about so far, what excites you the most? And what are maybe some things that you want to focus on a little bit more going forward as well?

So Bob, I think the strategy that we set out and the direction we've been in of moving into the lower capital retirement, asset management and wealth management type businesses has really proved out for us, and the momentum is extremely good in the company. The conditions that we see in the market are the best I've seen with the demographics higher interest rates, equity markets are helpful as well. And I think Equitable is extremely well placed. We're very happy that we play in all parts of the value chain. We have very strong affiliated and third-party distribution. We have a lot of innovation and energy inside the manufacturing business. And in AllianceBernstein, we have a well-performing asset manager that we're able to both receive attractive yields from for our general account, but also use our general account to see the growth of the private markets in that business. So we're very optimistic about the future going forward.

All right. Okay. So maybe the last one for me. As you move from New York paper for annuities into Arizona paper, just curious as how that process is coming along? And then if you can maybe talk about some of the advantages of Arizona going forward?

Sure. So at the highest level, you've seen us as we move towards capital-light businesses. We also want to make sure the insurance regulatory framework that we operate in is consistent with our peers. And so that's seen us moving more business to our Arizona company. We started through issuance and now all of our individual retirement business goes through -- non-New York policies go through our Arizona company, and we did it with our internal reinsurance transaction last year. Why do we do that? It goes back to those cash flows. So even within the 50% insurance cash flows, having it in Arizona gives us more flexibility to take out that cash, that's the core of it. There's no -- everything behind it is mechanics element but the core is to continue to deliver on the consistency of cash flows. Now we're going through [ the novation ] period where we physically move the policies over. That's a 2-year period that involves multiple policyholder consents. And that will make permanent the internal reinsurance transaction that we've done to continue to deliver on that consistency of cash flow in order to achieve about or $2 billion by 2027.

Got it. Okay. So before we conclude, just want to see if anyone else have any questions? Well if not, really thank you very much. It's a privilege of having both of you here.

Thank you very much.

Thank you, Bob.

Thank you.