Equity Residential (EQR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
March 3, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Nicholas Joseph
AnalystsWelcome to Citi's 2026 Global Property CEO Conference. I'm Nick Joseph here with Eric Wolfe with Citi Research. Pleased to have with us Equity Residential, CEO, Mark Parrell, and joined by his management team as well. This session is for Citi clients only. Disclosures have been made available at the corporate access desk. To ask a question, you can raise your hand and go to liveqa.com and enter code GPC 26 to submit any questions. Mark, we'll turn it over to you to make any opening remarks, tell the audience the top reason that investors should buy your stock today, and then we'll get into Q&A.
Mark Parrell
ExecutivesExcellent. Thanks for having us on, Nick and Eric. We appreciate it. Just a note, we did publish a management deck on Friday. Have a good operating update. I'm sure we'll have questions on that, Pages 7 through 11 of that deck. that we published. So just talking about the stock and the themes that we think are relevant at the moment and a note on our operations. Our guidance kind of assumes normal up and down seasonality for the year. There's no hockey stick. There's no big up at the end of the year for some job picture improvement. But we do see the decline in supply as a positive thing and do feel like sentiment on the stock and in the industry will be better towards the end of the year than it certainly is now. And the forward setup on supply is outstanding. We feel like we are better positioned than our peers to drive cash to the bottom line. We're the only large apartment peer where our FFO growth number is larger than our same-store NOI growth number. We don't have a lot of intervening activities, whether it's overhead, nonaccretive development activities, preferred or mezz stock programs that are winding down or just a very efficient operating platform that we think compounds cash flow growth for you guys year in and year out. We've also have a lot of flexibility. So we're able -- because we don't have all these other things and distractions pulling at our capital, we've been very active in repurchasing our stock. Just since the earnings call a month ago, we bought another $200 million of our stock. So the company has repurchased a total of $500 million of its stock since September using excess disposition proceeds from slower growth assets. So we think we also improved our forward growth ability. And we think our portfolio is levered to the right kind of resident in this climate. We do think places like San Francisco and New York, which together are 30% of our portfolio and are running very well. Those are very well operating markets for us right now, good supply-demand balance. A also places that have the right kind of intellectual capital as we talk about AI. Those are folks that we think will be less susceptible to disruption. And finally, we see our urban exposure as uniquely positive. So we have more urban exposure than our competitors in places like Manhattan and San Francisco, very little supply against that urban exposure and really good demand. And with that, I'll turn it back to you all for Q&A.
Eric Wolfe
AnalystsGreat. So thank you for the update. You mentioned that you've been a buyer of your stock in size. We've been looking at the name for a long time and been through a number of periods, whether it's COVID, European debt crisis. the GFC. This time around, I think the concern is really more of a sort of structural technology concern around job growth and potentially what AI means for that. So I guess my first question is really, you've been a buyer in size. How and why are you comfortable doing that given the uncertainty of the environment right now?
Mark Parrell
ExecutivesWell, it's particularly easy, we think, Eric, to do that when you're selling these lower growth assets and just sort of arbitraging the private and public markets. So we've sold the assets towards pardon me, at the end of last year. We sold $400 million on December 30 of these slower growth assets, a Hoboken asset just about to go under rent control, a downtown L.A. asset, a downtown Seattle asset where we're overexposed or had capital issues with the properties, turn around and buy our stock, I felt like an easy decision for us as a Board and as a management team. So I think the bigger decision will be leaning in with debt. So if you start using your debt capacity, you're making a different kind of call about your capital structure, and we haven't done that yet.
Eric Wolfe
AnalystsAnd you mentioned that you were levered to the right sort of type of tenants. Maybe talk about that for a second, about the ability of your tenant base to sort of absorb further increases going forward as supply comes down. And then I know that you don't have like a bunch of like student housing or just right after sort of entry-level housing for recent college grads. But I guess to what extent do you think that sort of unemployment among some of those younger cohorts, those that are having difficulty finding jobs out of college is impacting your results?
Michael Manelis
ExecutivesWell, maybe I'll just start with just kind of rent-to-income ratios or how we think about kind of the financial health of our resident base. So really, what we've seen not only in the fourth quarter of last year, but even in the beginning of 2026 here is the financial health of our resident base remains very strong. Rent-to-income ratios are just under 20% for those residents moving in. We see no signs of distress right now. People aren't coming into the office, turning in their keys. They're not asking to transfer mid lease to a lower-priced smaller unit. We don't see any change in delinquency. So for us, we see a confidence that clearly has some ambiguity going forward with job security and things like that, that tends to have them bunker down, not make a lot of life decisions. But we feel very promising around just that rent-to-income ratio that as the year progresses and as the pressure from competitive supply kind of wanes in many of our markets that they will be able to absorb kind of nominal rent increases upon renewal.
Mark Parrell
ExecutivesAnd can I add just one other theme because you kind of implied that, Eric, just why do we feel good about the stock, given all the cycles the industry has been through, and it's really the stocks have all been kicked around ours and our peers. The supply picture is certainly uniquely positive and certain, right? We know what those numbers are. We know they're going down significantly, and that's helpful to us. We also know the country is structurally underhoused. We're 96.6% occupied at a relatively quiet time of the year. It won't take a lot of good news for us to put up better numbers than the midpoint of our guidance. I'd also tell you, we are a stock, we feel like that has very little obsolescence risk. So there are things that AI may change the way we all conduct our lives, but people will still need a place to live, and we provide that. And because we're diverse enough, we're not all Sunbelt, we're not all coastal, we're not all suburban or a little bit of both. We think having that balanced portfolio, we were made for this moment. We were made to have this balanced portfolio that isn't subject to any one risk and that we can just consistently compound cash flow on top of an efficient operating platform. So that was the vision we started in 2018 when we did the diversification play. And to be honest, we didn't plan on any of these things happening. But our numbers in the peer group look really good, even though they're not on an absolute basis as high as we'd like.
Eric Wolfe
AnalystsAnd correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like tenants that are moving in today are perhaps price sensitive, shopping around. There's some options on the supply side. But then your existing tenant base, those that have already moved in, they're renewing at a record rate, sometimes at above market rates. I guess what explains that dichotomy? And at what point do you think you can get to sort of that sort of new tenant moving in or market rates, however you want to define it, start seeing more meaningful upward sort of movement?
Michael Manelis
ExecutivesWell, I think I would start and it starts with just an excellent customer service operating platform. So that drives a lot of the strong retention that we've seen. The other thing I would say is looking back into 2025, when consumer sentiment kind of starts to weaken or confidence weakens, the resident base tends to bunker down. They just don't make a lot of life changes decisions, and that actually improves kind of the overall turnover or reduces the turnover in the portfolio. And in terms of like that spread and what we're seeing and kind of how that plays out. So as the year progresses and you see less and less competitive new supply, the options for existing residents to move and go get an attractive concession or deal in that marketplace is starting to become less and less. So my guess is what you're going to see is some improved performance in the retention side of the equation just because there's just less optionality for those residents. And ultimately, as we start seeing less and less competitive pressure, less concessions in the marketplace, that probably drives kind of that net effective prices to be more in line with a normal rent seasonality curve, which compared to 2025 would equate to more pricing power in '26 versus what we had in '25.
Eric Wolfe
AnalystsAnd I think you all published one of the more sort of helpful charts in terms of your pricing trend. I know it's early in the year. But can you maybe walk us through sort of what you've seen thus far, sort of why you're confident right now that you're following a sort of normal seasonal trend?
Michael Manelis
ExecutivesYes. So you're referring to Page 11 in the management presentation that we posted on Friday. And basically, this is just a normal typical rent seasonality curve is a dotted line that we show how rents are going to trend from the beginning of the year through the peak leasing season and ultimately decelerating through the third and fourth quarter of the year. So right now, we have a line in there that shows our net effective pricing from the beginning of the year to basically last week, and it's kind of right in line with what you would typically expect rents to be doing, which is sequentially week after week, we're putting through increases as we prepare the portfolio for the spring and peak leasing season. So when we're 96.6% occupied, we have confidence to kind of keep our foot on that gas and keep pressure testing that rate. We're also coming up against a period where in many of the markets we operate in, we do see less pressure from supply. So we do start to see more pricing power. And I could use an example like San Francisco right now, where we were using a lot of concessions this time last year, and we have 0 concessions in the marketplace today. So every market is going to have a little bit of a nuance or a little bit of a story to it. But in our minds and what we're seeing so far year-to-date, the portfolio is positioned well from an occupancy standpoint. We're not seeing any signs of distress from our resident base. We continue to see strong retention, good renewal conversations for even the renewals that are out in the marketplace for the next 3 months. So that tells us that we should expect a normal kind of rent seasonality trend.
Eric Wolfe
AnalystsCan we just follow up on that last part? So where are renewals going out? I think as part of your -- again, correct me if I'm wrong, but part of your revenue management system, you sort of have a projection of your lease exposure and where sort of occupancy might go based on sort of current retention. Can you just talk about sort of what those forward indicators are telling you and where renewals are going out today?
Michael Manelis
ExecutivesSure. And actually, we put a page in the book, I think it was Page 46 in the management presentation because that is a proprietary kind of pricing engine that we created that handles about 60% of our transactions, which are the renewals. So this system generates kind of the quotes that go out. It also -- we have a centralized renewal team. It modifies and put screens in front of those individuals on how to negotiate kind of based on market conditions that they see real time. So today, our quotes in the marketplace are somewhere around a net effective 6% increase -- and we have a high degree of confidence for the next kind of 90 days, which is where those quotes are out there that we'll achieve about a 4.5%.
Eric Wolfe
AnalystsSo net -- so the kind of 150 basis points of similar, I think, what you discussed before in terms of negotiation after. And you mentioned the proprietary revenue system. I think we have some questions we'll ask on AI in a moment. But I was just curious, how much has that sort of system changed over the last couple of years? And as you think going forward, whether it's incorporating AI or other advancements in it, like do you see that system sort of materially changing going forward?
Michael Manelis
ExecutivesWell, I think in terms of technology in general, I think the technology is advancing very quickly out there and the opportunities to layer in AI into the day-to-day operations it's really exciting. I mean we're creating a foundation of operating efficiency that the industry has not seen before. I was just in D.C. last week. We're deploying a new AI-enabled CRM and service application that we have a high degree of confidence will create the operating efficiency and deliver a more seamless customer experience to our resident base. So I think as we think about technology going forward, we are going to focus and we're going to build the things that can help us differentiate. So like the example I used on renewal pricing, our website, things like that, that we can truly differentiate. But when it comes to layering in the AI kind of components into applications, there are some great products in the marketplace, and these companies have teams of people that wake up and just think about that one part of the business. It's hard for us to build something and keep up and compete with that. So we're just -- we're really excited about these opportunities that we see in the marketplace to license software and build our own expertise in-house to go differentiate on pockets of how we run the business.
Mark Parrell
ExecutivesAnd I just want to clarify, being a big platform really helps. We don't use and have never used really outside information. But even in Atlanta, we have 5,000, 6,000 units. When you have that kind, you can see one property's rents moving one direction, another property. You can use that to price your 1 bedrooms, your 2s because that's another way pricing has changed. It's become much more inward looking. And so people are developing their own systems, looking at their own properties, having big portfolios in all our markets, but Austin is very helpful in that endeavor because we've never really relied on other people's pricing, and we do so even less now.
Nicholas Joseph
AnalystsThat's helpful. As you think about that AI deployment, where else are you seeing the efficiencies, maybe either on the expense side or using it towards capital allocation, just more broadly across the organization beyond kind of what you just touched on, on the revenue management.
Michael Manelis
ExecutivesI think it's clearly going into the buy [indiscernible].
Mark Parrell
ExecutivesYes.
Robert Garechana
ExecutivesI think it's permeating kind of throughout the organization in all the areas that you outlined. So I think early -- our early adoption was largely focused on some of the leasing activities and prospect activities, et cetera. But now you're seeing that increasingly in both capital allocation and underwriting, analysis in location and market selection in all those areas, and you're also seeing it in the back office, right? So you're seeing that impact line items like property management and G&A as well. So we have a pretty robust approach overall and try to identify use cases and what the value proposition is and target those use cases against the value proposition. But I think as probably everyone in this room is experiencing, there is use cases and impacts across organizations.
Nicholas Joseph
AnalystsAnd Mark, I think over the history of EQR, you've been thoughtful of exiting different markets, moving into different markets based off of where your customers are and where you think they're going. AI is obviously impacting sentiment and the economy broadly. How does that inform or how do you think through maybe either new markets or lightening up on markets based off of the potential ramifications of AI on white-collar job and the economy broadly?
Mark Parrell
ExecutivesThat's a great question. And I want to admit to a great deal of modesty about what the answer really is, Nick, at the end. But I will talk about a little thought experiment that we've been doing here as a management team. So we do have exposure. We have properties in and around Frisco, Texas, which is a North Dallas suburb. One of the big insurance companies has a big service center there, thousands of employees, they process claims, okay? So what's the AI impact on that employment, okay? So we think on that. And we compare that to our very significant exposure in San Francisco, where you're tied in with a higher earner knowledge worker who may be working at OpenAI or may be working at all the things that sit on top of those LLMs and try to create products, as Michael discussed a minute ago. And we've tried to think which of those in our experience would be more susceptible to disruption. And I guess our really preliminary, I'll call it, hypothesis at this point is San Francisco and New York, where you have these very high-end knowledge workers and high housing prices, so they stay renters longer. feels better to me. It feels like those folks have changed. If you think about the GFC pre-New York financial services was a much higher percentage of total employment than it is now and people morphed and spread and did other things and total employment is higher. San Francisco in my career has been through Internet 1.0 bus, the social media, but -- I mean, been through and it reinvents itself, and it's doing it again with AI. I don't imply that Frisco is not going to have employment. Dallas is a giant metro and people -- Americans are very good at figuring out how to make money. But I do worry about some of those jobs and the speednick of the disruption. If it happens quickly, it could be more problematic. It happens over time. And my bet is it happens slowly. That it isn't the tools that are the problem, it's rolling those tools out, getting your employees and your customers to use them. And inside our company, the big spend has been, for example, on technology, but also change management people in HR because we need to teach our teams how to think differently. We all need to think differently. So my instinct is it will happen slower than we think than it feels than the top shops would have us believe. But I think the places with very high-end knowledge workers are probably less exposed and are used to transforming themselves to the next big thing.
Eric Wolfe
AnalystsIs it impacting your hiring at all? How you think about hiring?
Mark Parrell
ExecutivesWell, we have more -- our IT department is slowly taking over our office. So I would say that's part of it. But yes, there are reductions across -- I mean, Michael, your headcount reductions in property management. Why don't you talk about those for a minute.
Michael Manelis
ExecutivesYes. So I think the first wave of innovation that we introduced through the company in the last 4 years or so was about a 20% headcount reduction. I think layering in this next tranche of AI-enabled, we'll probably see another 10% to 15% reduction, and that's not just on site. That includes some of the centralization processes that we put in place as well. But I'll tell you, the folks that are in the AI and engineers that may be losing their job, we'll hire them because that's the group that we're trying to build out, right? That's the expertise that as an industry, we have had a challenge for the last 5 years of attracting that kind of talent. And now what you see is this opportunity to build the use cases, like Bob said, build out kind of high-performing data and analytics team, and that's exciting to some of those individuals. So I think we see it as an opportunity for us as well.
Mark Parrell
ExecutivesAnd maybe we could just use an example. Maybe, Bob, you could talk about Block, our exposure to them and then what happened a couple of years ago when all the tech firms shrunk.
Michael Manelis
ExecutivesPost COVID?
Robert Garechana
ExecutivesYes. So obviously, there's been a large narrative around block and the announcement on block and a lot of discussion about whether or not that's truly AI related or frankly, just some overhiring, et cetera. Our portfolio exposure is very minimal, as you might expect. So we have like 19 residents that are employed at block. To the best of our knowledge, they may still be employed at Block. We don't know necessarily if they are or not. But it's pretty dispersed as well. It was actually dispersed across 6 MSAs. And so I think it's difficult to make a single threaded narrative around whether it's AI that's disintermediating or just adjustments like we saw and Mark alluded to in 2022. So in 2022, we saw significant amounts of kind of post-pandemic hiring or kind of during the pandemic hiring by the tech space. And you saw a lot of job creation and then an adjustment, a rightsizing, right? And that certainly may have impacted like top-of-funnel demand in certain markets. But overall, we continue to go execute through. And as Michael alluded to earlier, as we sit here today, San Francisco is probably our strongest market where we see the best pricing power that we've seen in a number of years. So I think it's a multivariable equation with a number of puts and takes when we think about what the workforce can look like going forward.
Eric Wolfe
AnalystsSo nothing -- I mean, San Francisco is at the center of this really debate, right? So nothing within San Francisco that you've seen thus far would say that a certain percentage of your tenants are being displaced at least at this moment. Because I think the fear is that it's a digital profession, might be a little bit easier to transition, especially since they're at the front end of technology, but you're not seeing anything like that.
Michael Manelis
ExecutivesI think it's actually the opposite for us that even the folks that are losing their jobs and what we don't see with some of the kind of public job data is what's really happening in the ecosystem of San Francisco, which is the 6- and 10-person company that's being created on top of using these large language models that are developing the next round of products and services to come approach companies like us saying they got the next best solution. So we see a lot of activity right now that people that are still in migration into the market. There's definitely a buzz still. And I think even though we're seeing some of the headlines, we're just not seeing anything in terms of resident kind of distress or turning in keys, we actually see more of the frenzy still taking place.
Eric Wolfe
AnalystsAnd then moving beyond San Francisco, I think internally, you guys might have a bet going on which markets outperform or underperform. Sort of curious who's winning that bet thus far if there are certain markets that are exhibiting a little bit more strength versus lower, better demand versus [indiscernible].
Michael Manelis
ExecutivesI don't know if we have an internal.
Mark Parrell
ExecutivesI don't like to bet against the guy who's got the best information. So I don't bet against.
Michael Manelis
ExecutivesLook, I think sitting here today, I would tell you that the 2 markets that have the most pronounced rent seasonality, which is for us, Boston and Seattle, are trending a little bit behind what I would say is a normal rent seasonality curve. Now to be fair, Boston for the last month has been pounded on with snow and cold weather. So I want to see how does this market react in the next couple of weeks. I told me it's going to be 60 degrees, and we'll see if there's kind of this pent-up demand coming. It's a very early time in the year right now. We don't write a lot of leases. We don't have a lot of leases expiring. So -- but those 2 markets right now, if I was just putting into my beginning of the year expectation, how I would think they would trend are both kind of a little bit lagging. And Seattle, I would say it's got pockets of strength. pockets of weakness. It's a market that tends to move very quickly. It's also a market that we've seen in previous cycles tends to kind of lag San Francisco about 1 to 12 to 18 months behind, good or bad. So I think what we're seeing right now is the setup feels right for Seattle. It just hasn't kind of taken hold like we would have expected it to so far. And in Boston, I think weather is playing into this a little bit. No change in the expectation for us in Boston that the urban is going to outperform suburban. We just have so much little supply coming at us in the city of Boston that I think we're going to have a little bit more pricing power. Outside of that, the rest of these markets are just kind of trending right where you thought they would be trending.
Eric Wolfe
AnalystsAnd if we use sort of D.C. as like a case study for maybe a market that underperformed in the back half of the year, sort of a little bit lower demand profile, more uncertainty in that market. I guess, how long do you think it takes to sort of work through not really the demand side, but whatever sort of leftover supply there is there, meaning that this is a market that where supply is coming down by 60% year-over-year, but you're probably still dealing with some lease-ups there and that sort of lower demand profile. So how quickly can you sort of move through that and then start seeing a bit more strength on the other side of it when supply comes down?
Michael Manelis
ExecutivesYes. And I was just in the market last week. And again, that market, depending on where you are, Northern Virginia feels better than the district, better than the upper Northwest corridor. I think we're probably looking somewhere into this back half of this year where it's like very obvious that there is just a significant drop-off in competitive pressure, very obvious that concession start to kind of lower in the marketplace. But my guess is we still got 6 months of an overhang. And a lot of this is going to depend too on how strong the spring leasing season, how strong the initial peak leasing season is in the demand side of the equation to aid some of the absorption of the units that were delivered last year. But I think with 62% drop off, I mean, we're going from a market that's delivered 12,000 units a year for the last decade to like 4,000 units. They haven't delivered that few of units probably in 2 decades. So I think it's inevitable unless you tell me demand is dropping off that more pricing power is returning to that market.
Eric Wolfe
AnalystsAnd then maybe in terms of turnover, one fear that I get sometimes from investors is that retention has been so good that there's this fear that there's going to be more people moving out to purchase homes as interest rates presumably come down as there's more sort of stimulative policies around the housing market. I guess based on everything that's been announced thus far, I mean, I guess, are you seeing any of that in your data? Are there any policies out there that have been proposed where you're like, you know what, I really hope we don't see that because that can make a sort of big difference in our retention or turnover?
Mark Parrell
ExecutivesYes, Eric, thanks for the question. That's probably not a risk to our company. I mean the portfolio was designed to be in places with relatively high single-family housing costs. Down payments matter a lot. I think as rates go down, you may end up capitalizing those rate declines in a higher purchase price. insurance, all those other things continue to be really expensive. And again, lifestyle factors are different. So we saw about 7% of our residents move out to buy homes. That was a record low for us. When it was higher, it was 10% to 12%. So it just is not likely to be a reason for us to feel uncomfortable. I think it's more about jobs for us than it is about single-family.
Eric Wolfe
AnalystsAnd switching over to capital allocation. We've talked about the implications of AI for your portfolio. I guess, are you seeing any sort of signs of changes in underwriting on the private side, meaning is this something that people are factoring into their expectations, not necessarily even from AI, but also just because we've seen a little bit lower job growth. And then on the other side of that, assuming your answer is you're not seeing it, I guess, how aggressive can you be this year in terms of selling these noncore properties? Because as you mentioned before, there is a pretty big difference between where you're trading and where some of even your lower quality stuff is trading?
Robert Garechana
ExecutivesYes. Thanks, Eric. I'll start on the underwriting side. In the private markets, we do see -- we continue to see pretty aggressive underwriting, meaning we don't see a negative impact in terms of demand. And in pockets, we see very aggressive recoveries underwritten. So like in markets like in Austin, we often see folks underwriting recovery levels, Austin being in a market that has significant supply that are pretty pronounced. So generally speaking, the private markets for multifamily remain very liquid. Cap rates tend to surround somewhere like a 4.75% to 5.25%. And the implication if you're solving to an IRR that's maybe in the low 7s, which I think is where most people are solving unlevered, is that you see good demand and good rental growth coming in the near term. So we don't really see a lot of change there. In terms of our ability to sell some of the lower-performing assets, I think that there is -- there continues to be pretty good bids. They're a little harder than down the middle of the fairway stuff. So it may not be as robust a bidding tense, which may mean that you have to expose a few more markets or take a little bit more time to get the transaction to work. But I think that we will continue to do that. Unfortunately, we don't have a lot to expose. So we will see how that goes as we make it through the year.
Mark Parrell
ExecutivesI mean we're open to doing more buybacks. We don't feel like there's a limit on that necessarily. We just have to look at our other capital options. I mean, what our acquisitions trading at. They're trading really dear right now. We got a couple of development deals we may start, but the stock is a pretty good value at this point. And if we can arbitrage it with lower quality asset sales, I think that's making lemonade out of lemons and is a good play.
Eric Wolfe
AnalystsAnd are you willing to let leverage drift up a little bit just because of the limitations on the tax side from sales?
Mark Parrell
ExecutivesYes. I think the limit there, though, or the thing to think about is we can probably do several hundred million dollars of that without any impact on credit ratings and the like. But you can only do that once. So once you've used up that capacity, then you're making a capital structure decision. So I think, Eric, it's just what's the hurdle price for that? Because when you're arbitraging existing assets with your stock, I think subject to the tax issues, that's a little bit easier trade. When you're taking debt, you're changing your opportunity set, you're potentially putting more risk. There's probably, frankly, a stock price you need that needs to be lower to justify that.
Eric Wolfe
AnalystsAnd you mentioned development a moment ago. I don't know if that's sort of -- I think you might have a couple of projects in Atlanta. I guess my question is sort of why now, I guess, for that specific market? And then more broadly across development, we've heard for years that it's just very difficult to start development right now. Construction costs are high, rental rates haven't moved enough. Is that changing at all? And it seems like construction costs might have come down from your peers. Some have said sort of in the 5% to 10% range, but would be curious what you've seen as well.
Mark Parrell
ExecutivesI mean Bob may supplement this. We're very selective on development. So we started a couple of deals in Atlanta. We mentioned that on the call. One of them is an exurban small deal where, frankly, it's a bit of an experiment with a lower amenitized product in a further out location. It's not a build-to-rent deal, but it has attributes of that. Another one is an infill deal that just has really good economics in the Northern Atlanta suburbs that we picked up. But I mean, Bob's team sits through 50 deals to talk to him about 10, to talk to me about. We're a very selective developer. And the hurdle rate, Eric, is just a lot higher than it was because the stock is trading where it's trading.
Eric Wolfe
AnalystsGot it. And are you seeing construction costs coming down?
Robert Garechana
ExecutivesYes. I think selectively, you are seeing as there's lower volume of development, you are seeing developers and general contractors reduce their margin. And correspondingly, you're seeing construction costs coming down slightly, particularly in product that's more like wrap product and suburban product. As it relates to high-rise, which we're just not seeing any starts on and construction costs remaining very high relative to acquisitions, there, you're not seeing it as much. But in the suburban stuff, you're maybe seeing that low single-digit reduction in costs selectively.
Eric Wolfe
AnalystsAnd so supply is coming down very quickly this year, how long will it stay at these very low levels?
Mark Parrell
ExecutivesDepends what market you're talking about. I mean that's why we like our urban exposure. We think there's just not a lot of high-rise construction that's going to make sense. We think a lot of these markets are going to have a longer hiatus. I remind everyone, post-GFC, everyone said there would never be anything built in the coastal markets. And unfortunately, for us, there was plenty built in the coastal markets, and there will be plenty built in the Sunbelt, be plenty built in the suburbs. And I just think that we get these lists from these developers of assets that we can jump in JVs with them on. And that list is all suburban and our competitors are building all suburban. So that's telling you something about where the supply is going to be. So we think that balanced portfolio with the urban exposure is going to serve us well.
Nicholas Joseph
AnalystsGreat. So we have our 2 rapid-fire questions to end the session. Same-store NOI growth for the apartment sector overall next year in 2027.
Mark Parrell
ExecutivesWe don't provide guidance...
Michael Manelis
ExecutivesOn 2026.
Mark Parrell
ExecutivesIt's for the sector.
Eric Wolfe
AnalystsSector, it's not guidance for you.
Nicholas Joseph
AnalystsYes, broad sector.
Mark Parrell
ExecutivesI think we're not providing or giving any commentary on 2027.
Eric Wolfe
AnalystsWhat are you underwriting in your models for 2027?
Robert Garechana
ExecutivesDepends on the market.
Nicholas Joseph
AnalystsAnd then more fewer of the same number of public apartment companies a year from now.
Robert Garechana
ExecutivesI feel like that might be a relatively easy question this year because there's already some announced go private. So I'm going to say fewer. And I think I'm going to be right this time.
Nicholas Joseph
AnalystsThat sounds good.
Eric Wolfe
AnalystsWhen you repurchase your stock, what NOI growth are you using for 2027?
Mark Parrell
ExecutivesAsked and answered.
This call discussed
For developers and AI pipelines
Programmatic access to Equity Residential earnings transcripts and 32,000+ others is available through the
EarningsCalls.dev REST API. Plans from $24.99/month — full transcripts, speaker segments,
full-text search, and the recently-added /api/v1/transcripts/recent polling endpoint for ETL pipelines.