Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. (ESPR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

November 17, 2020

NASDAQ US Health Care Pharmaceuticals conference_presentation 30 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Derek Archila

analyst
#1

All right. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to day 2 of the Stifel Healthcare Conference. I'm Derek Archila, one of the senior biotech analyst here at Stifel. I'm pleased to be joined by our next presenter, Esperion Therapeutics. From the company, we have CEO, Tim Mayleben, to the left there; and then we have Rick Bartram, CFO, to the right there. Gentlemen, thank you so much for joining us.

Timothy Mayleben

executive
#2

Good morning, Derek. Thanks for having us. Look forward to the discussion.

Derek Archila

analyst
#3

All right. Well, maybe just to start. Maybe, Tim, do you want to just do a brief intro of what you guys have been up to and then we can kind of dig into the Q&A here?

Timothy Mayleben

executive
#4

Yes, sure. So thanks, Derek, for hosting us this morning. My name is, as Derek mentioned, Tim Mayleben, President, CEO of Esperion, we call ourselves the lipid management company. We have had a singular focus on developing convenient oral once-daily drugs to lower bad cholesterol. So our -- the entire focus of our company is on lowering bad cholesterol. We have 2 drugs, NEXLETOL and NEXLIZET, that were approved in February of this year here in the U.S. and in March in the EU. We launched those drugs commercially here in April, at the beginning of April, which also coincided with the height of the pandemic here in the U.S. So our drugs have been available to health care providers, patients and, again, we're very thankful for that. We've heard great reports from patients so far. But of course, the pandemic has had an impact on almost all of our lives in one way or another, and it's certainly impacted our launch. But we're a well-funded company with a singular focus on convenient oral drugs to lower bad cholesterol, very high unmet medical need, with almost 20 million people in the U.S. that need additional non-statin means to lower their bad cholesterol. And we think that with convenient oral therapies that we are in the best position to be able to meet that need. Those 20 million patients break down into about 10 million patients that can't or won't take statins. I think patients that we've referred to as statin-intolerant patients. The other half, almost 9 million patients that are taking a statin, they're so-called maximally tolerated statin, but still need additional means of lowering their LDL cholesterol. And of course, you can't double up on statin, so you need a non-statin means of lowering their bad cholesterol further. And again, with non-statin oral drugs that they can take with their statin conveniently each day, we think NEXLETOL an NEXLIZET has a really important place in the armamentarium for physicians as they seek to bring patients' cholesterol into the well-managed zone. So with that, maybe I'll turn it back to you, Derek, and we can answer any questions.

Derek Archila

analyst
#5

Excellent. Yes, that's a great place to start. So maybe first off, where are you guys seeing the most utilization for NEXLIZET and NEXLETOL right now? I mean, again, you kind of mentioned the 2 segments of patients that you're kind of targeting. But do you have any kind of early data or early kind of trends on where the utilization primarily is for those 2 products?

Timothy Mayleben

executive
#6

Yes. Thanks, Derek. I'll answer it in 2 ways. First of all, thinking about the prescribers. So there are 2 categories, primarily 2 categories of prescribers. One, of course, cardiologists who manage, obviously, many patients, especially those with more severe cardiovascular disease. They account for about 50% of the prescriptions that are written for our medicines so far. That's higher than you would expect in a non-COVID environment because, again, as you might expect, cardiologists' offices have been open and accessible. And of course, not dealing with COVID or COVID-related health issues, strictly dealing with cardiology issues, cardiovascular health issues for patients. So because those offices have been open, they've been -- they've had a more traditional patient flow of just cardiology patients, cardiovascular health-oriented patients, then they are writing a greater number of prescriptions. Primary care or internal medicine physicians are writing most of the other prescriptions, a few endocrinologists, obviously, but primary care docs have been, I think, either have offices closed or have been dealing with many of the acute COVID issues for their patients. So I think you may have seen the article in JAMA, a couple of weeks ago now that indicated that while there has been a move to telemedicine visits, especially among primary care physicians, the traditional cardiovascular health issues, blood pressure, cholesterol, have actually not been dealt with via telemedicine. Those particular cardiovascular health issues don't lend themselves well to telemedicine. So as the author said, those health issues, cardiovascular health issues have largely fallen through the cracks for telemedicine usage. With respect to the patients now -- turning to patients and where we're seeing patients use, the clear favorite early on in the launch of our medicines are the patients considered statin intolerant. And again, if you think about why -- just a little bit about why physicians may be prescribing our medicines at this early stage more for statin-intolerant medicine or statin-intolerant patients, it is because they are the most difficult to treat. They are -- the patients that have not wanted to take statins or can't take statins, they are the patients that don't want to inject themselves or for economic reasons, don't have access to the more expensive injectable biologics. So the statin-intolerant patients who need a non-statin means of lowering their LDL cholesterol seem to be more of the patients that are being prescribed our medicines. Now when I say that, I want to emphasize we don't have data on patients. We're hearing more of this anecdotally from physicians who speak to our sales representatives, but that's what they talk about most. And of course, what you would expect as time goes on is as they have success with their most difficult patients, and we're hearing great stories about patients, not only being able to tolerate both NEXLETOL or NEXLIZET, but also that they're getting -- they're seeing very good efficacy, very good LDL cholesterol lowering, depending on which medicine they're prescribed. So I'll pause there and see if you have additional questions in that.

Derek Archila

analyst
#7

Yes. I just want to touch on a few things. So first, in terms of the telemedicine, I guess, what percentage -- do you have a sense of what percentage of patients are being prescribed your medicines via telemedicine? Is that a good portion? Or is that -- I don't know, what trends -- what do those trends kind of look like? And then I guess as you think about going forward in the next couple of months, I guess, what's the level of awareness right now? Because you have a good base right now of prescribers, it sounds like. Is that -- how do you continue to grow that awareness? And where are you kind of -- what's the baseline awareness as we sit here today?

Timothy Mayleben

executive
#8

Yes. So with respect to telemedicine, again, I think not just our observation, but again, KOLs in the health care space are also saying cardiovascular health issues do not lend themselves to telemedicine. And so we're not seeing -- and we don't expect to see, honestly, Derek, we don't expect to see an abundance of prescribing through telemedicine for cholesterol lowering medicines. I think the overall context and maybe supportive of this is when you look at the therapeutic area overall, so all cholesterol lowering medicines. And you look at this period or this week or this month compared to the same period or month in 2019, new prescriptions for LDL cholesterol lowering drugs are down 30% as compared to last year. If you look at the beginning of this year, pre-COVID, so January, February compared to this period now, new prescriptions for LDL cholesterol lowering drugs are down 30%. So what that tells you is it's not just our medicines are lower than we would have expected pre-COVID, it is the entire cholesterol lowering class of medicines that is not being treated in this pandemic. And we can say, gee, that's not so great. Except last Monday, this Monday, we received news on the vaccines that, highly efficacious, safe, well tolerated. And I think for the first time, not only we, but I think everybody can now start to think about a time in which things will return to pre-COVID ways of doing things. And I think we think that mid-next year, when the vaccines are broadly distributed, that we will see a return to traditional management of cardiovascular health, and that is cholesterol lowering medicine. So again, as we think about our medicines launching here, we're going to continue to muscle through, I think, as we've been saying this pandemic. As we get access to physician offices as they hear about our medicines, they're prescribing them. As they're getting success with their first 1, 2 or 3 patients, then they're prescribing them more broadly within their practice. But it is, by no means, an indicator of the success or the anticipation for our medicines to look at the level of demand in this environment, I think we really have to look at when the overall cholesterol lowering medicine category improves, then we'll have a much better indicator of just how well accepted and how well our medicines will do from a demand standpoint.

Derek Archila

analyst
#9

Got it. And just -- do you think those trends that you're citing in terms of the decline in scripts for the overall like cholesterol management, is that largely because people are -- are they not refilling? Or is it more that people are not going to get their LDL checked during their maybe routine checkup or just they're monitoring, and they're just like, other, bigger things to worry about with COVID versus like going in and getting their LDL test. Is that kind of the theme?

Timothy Mayleben

executive
#10

Yes. Yes. So everything we're hearing, we've heard about medical distancing, that's become a term of ours during the pandemic. We've heard about the patient flow at physician offices. It was almost none, almost 0. During the height of the pandemic in Q2, we reported, and I think we've seen data from IQVIA and others that it's returned, again, depending on the specialty, but return to perhaps 60% to 70% of pre-COVID patient flow levels. And that's why we're seeing traction within the cardiology community. But that patient flow that's coming back to primary care is primarily COVID-related and not cardiovascular health. And then the medical distancing that I mentioned earlier is, I think you highlighted, it is, all of us -- or almost all of us, go in for an annual checkup with our physician. And of course, if you're a cardiology patient, you're usually going in twice a year, every 6 months or so to get your vitals checked. And those are either not happening in the case of primary care or they're happening with less frequency than they were pre-COVID. So again, I think as COVID dissipates, as primary care offices are no longer having to deal with either acute COVID cases or negative impacts from COVID, then we will see a return to normalcy or at least we're anticipating that, Derek. And as a result, we will see increased patient flow and the right kind of patient flow. People coming in for their annual physicals, getting their cholesterol checked, getting on a cholesterol lowering medicine. And of course, as the overall category improves. So as -- for every -- if you -- again, if you look at the history, for every 10 patients that start on a statin, 2 of them will end up not being able to tolerate it, either for muscle pain and weakness reasons or HbA1c worsening reasons or what others describe as brain fog from statins. And when they discontinue the statin, they still need to lower their LDL cholesterol. And we believe physicians will reach for the convenient oral option of NEXLETOL or NEXLIZET as the non-statin preferred alternative.

Derek Archila

analyst
#11

Got it. I guess, what do you think -- or what are your top priorities like between now and the middle of next year when you think COVID hopefully dissipates? And then like you said, the vaccine is getting broadly distributed and hopefully, you start to see a return to normalcy. What can you do? Or what are the 2 or 3 things that are the highest priority that you can do right now, in between now and then, to really kind of prime the market even more for that inflection in sales maybe in the second half of next year?

Timothy Mayleben

executive
#12

Yes. No, it's a great question. And I think one of the things I'm most excited about is our managed care coverage, not just me, but I think our entire team is excited about the managed care coverage. So on the commercial side, we're already at 90% of commercial lives covered at preferred brand Tier 2 with this PA to label. So the patient just has to be on a "maximally tolerated statin" or in the case of a statin-intolerant patient, have tried a statin and not been able to tolerate it. So that's great. But you've heard us talk about Med D, which, long term, will be about half of our patient population. Again, atherosclerosis, high levels of LDL cholesterol are primarily a disease of older people, unless, of course, there are some genetic disorders, but primarily a disease of older people. So Medicare Part D is going to be an important part of managed care access for us. So we're at about 50%, a little over 50% today. So during the course of the remaining period of this pandemic, we are working hard to bring the Medicare Part D coverage, the managed care coverage there, to the same level as on the commercial side. So by mid next year, when hopefully, COVID is behind us as a result of broad vaccine distribution then anybody, not just anybody who's got commercial coverage, but anybody who wants access to our medicines can do so through either Med D or commercial covered plans. And I think that will pay really significant dividends for us as this COVID-19 pandemic passes, and we have really reduced all friction on the managed care side by having not just commercial but also Medicare Part D access to our medicines.

Derek Archila

analyst
#13

When would that start? I might have missed that, but when would you get that access?

Timothy Mayleben

executive
#14

Yes. So we're at 50% today. We expect, in the first quarter to add to that as well. And then in the second quarter, we would hope again to be at that 75% to 90% level for Medicare Part D coverage as well.

Derek Archila

analyst
#15

Got it. And then I guess in terms of awareness, and I asked this question a little bit before, but what can you do between now and then? Also is there, I'm starting to see some DTC, things like that, but do you kind of really start to accelerate that in the months preceding, hopefully some COVID easing?

Timothy Mayleben

executive
#16

Yes. So as long as -- it's a great question. As long as there's medical distancing, then I think DTC is going to be somewhat effective, but not as effective as we would like it to be. And because the whole goal of DTC is to stimulate patients to ask about our medicines, to go see their physician and get their cholesterol check. I do think one of the real innovations that I think we've been able to implement during this pandemic and something that we've been continuing to invest in is peer-to-peer education via virtual Zoom-like meetings. So whether it's a local or a regional or even a national caliber KOL, getting Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursdays in the evening, when it's convenient for physicians, to just access a Zoom-like platform, to be able to hear about our medicines. And we are hearing -- well, we're actually not only hearing, but we're experiencing about 2,000 physicians or HCPs per month. That's been pretty consistent for us, attending these peer-to-peer education. So increasing awareness of our medicines. So that by the time this pandemic lifts, we've really expanded the awareness of our medicines to physicians, not just the cardiologists, but obviously, to this very important constituency of the primary care physicians. And again, already, I think it was -- in October, we had passed a key point in our launch, where more than 5,000 physicians had already prescribed, unique physicians had already written at least one prescription for our medicines. And each week, we have, I think, it's over, well over 2,000 patients that are filling a prescription for our medicines. So we're getting good traction even during the course of this pandemic. We're seeing quarterly growth, nice quarterly growth, obviously, quarter-to-quarter. Even our week-over-week growth is, while it's bumpy, we said it's choppy or bumpy week-over-week. Some weeks are flat, some weeks are slightly down, but the overall trend, most consistent trend is we're seeing high single-digit to low double-digit week-over-week growth when you average it out. And again, that's -- given the decline in prescription, new prescription growth for the category overall, that is LDL cholesterol lowering medicines, we feel really good about fighting that very strong headwind with the growth that we are producing.

Derek Archila

analyst
#17

Got it. So maybe as we think about the sales progression, and obviously, you're kind of in this period where COVID still kind of ramping, and it's increasing at the moment. But obviously, you guys haven't given guidance, and I don't suppose you'll give guidance for 2021, given that there's so much going on. But you kind of implied some sales given that you think you'll hit some milestones in the Oberland deal. So how do you think about the sales progression? Should we think kind of like kind of flattish to hockey stick up in the second half of next year? Or maybe you can kind of sketch that out about how you kind of get there to some meaningful sales, looks like, for next year?

Timothy Mayleben

executive
#18

Yes. Rick, can I give that to you?

Richard Bartram

executive
#19

Yes, sure. Yes. So thanks, Derek. I think the way to think about it is, we have an optimistic view of sales. We're not providing guidance next year. And again, likely not prior to 2022, just given some of the uncertainty. So we don't want to try to guide folks on the shape of sales. But what I do want to bring everyone back to is, we do have confidence in the launch. And Tim talked a lot about all of the temporary headwinds that we're experiencing. Once those dissipate, we're poised for success. And one other thing to just clarify because there's been, I think, a lot of debate on this $100 million worth of sales and how that's been tied to our Oberland agreement, we have confidence that we will have access to that capital if we choose to take it down. And I just want to remind everyone that it's not just U.S. sales alone, it is worldwide sales. And as we announced on our Q3 earnings call, our partner in Europe, Daiichi Sankyo has launched in Germany, and they'll continue to roll countries out in the quarters ahead, expanding their footprint across Europe, which will all net up to requirements under that agreement.

Derek Archila

analyst
#20

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then I don't know who wants to field this question. But in terms of the rest of world deal, you guys have continued to signal that's something that you're working towards getting inked by the end of this year. I don't know if you have any other kind of color that you could provide. And I think you've talked about it, being well until like a 9 figure deal. So maybe you can just kind of help us understand what we should be thinking about in terms of what type of upfront we could see with that type of deal?

Timothy Mayleben

executive
#21

Yes. Thanks, Derek. So we are on track to complete a rest of world deal by the end of this year. We said at the start of the year that, again, we were defining rest of world at that time as non-EU, non-U.S. Since that time, of course, we signed the -- in April, as a matter of fact, we signed the Japan-only deal with Otsuka, which was the biggest Japan-only deal ever. So we've got $60 million upfront from that deal. So at the beginning of the year, we had said we thought that we could achieve 9-figure upfronts from rest of world. So I think it's reasonable to expect that with this -- now what we're calling rest of world, non-Japan, non-U.S., non-EU, that we could see an upfront in the range of $30 million to $40 million that would drive, again, 9-figure upfronts for the deals combined. So we feel good about that. We have multiple partners that -- or potential partners that we're talking to and it is -- having done a couple of these deals before, we're, obviously, at advanced stages with a few of them. We've narrowed the field since we restarted the process in July, and so have a few folks that we're talking to that, that again, we're going to narrow down to 1 or 2 here and reach a definitive agreement with shortly. So still feel very good about that. And again, I think one of the important things to point out is that our medicines, because they're oral, convenient, low cost, they do travel extraordinarily well outside of the U.S. There's no injection, there's no biologics here. There's no storage issues. These medicines are familiar to patients around the world. And so as our business development deals have revealed, they are in high demand because there has just been a lack of innovation on convenient oral medicines in the LDL cholesterol lowering space for the past 20 years.

Derek Archila

analyst
#22

Got it. Very helpful. And then maybe just to round off the conversation. You obviously just did a financing and seemingly removed the financing overhang that it'd be kind of creeping up as an issue. But can you just kind of give us a sense of how you're thinking about the cash runway now with that deal done? And just kind of how we should be thinking about the burn rate on a quarterly basis, maybe for the next 4 to 6 quarters as we kind of think about our model?

Timothy Mayleben

executive
#23

Yes, Rick?

Richard Bartram

executive
#24

Yes. So yes, Derek, last week, we completed a convertible debt offering which we're very pleased with the outcome. And I think just the way to think about the cash runway as well as the overall burn, a couple of ways. We talked about revenue guidance and just remind you folks, prior to 2022, given the uncertainty with COVID-19, we're not providing revenue guidance, which obviously is a key factor in just the model math. But we have an optimistic view of our future revenue trajectory that gives us confidence with the long-term runway. When we factor in the net proceeds from the offering last week, along with more scrutinized cost management activities, which we have been doing, we will continue to do, we estimate that our cash runway extends well beyond the completion and the subsequent approval of our CLEAR CDOT. And then just as a reminder, under our collaboration agreements, we have up to $350 million payable to us from our partners. So we talked about the long term, we do expect to treat 1.8 million patients at peak. And again, using reasonable time to launch to peak estimates. And as Tim mentioned, the current conditions are temporary. Tim talked about LDL-C lowering prescriptions being down 30%. You mentioned about the JAMA article. So when we look at the net proceeds from last week, current cash on hand, it ensures that we have substantial capital on the balance sheet, and we're really poised for success when the overall environment begins to improve next year.

Derek Archila

analyst
#25

Terrific. All right. Well, I think we'll leave it there, just given we're out of time. Tim and Rick, thank you so much for joining us and everyone on the line, thanks again. We'll leave it there.

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