EVT Limited (EVT) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
February 20, 2023
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorThank you for standing by, and welcome to the EVT Limited Half Year Results. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Ms. Jane Hastings, CEO. Please go ahead.
Jane Hastings
executiveThank you. But before we get started, I'd like to acknowledge the traditional custodians of the land on which we are meeting today, the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation. I'd like to pay my respects to elders past, present and emerging, and I'd like to acknowledge any and all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people joining us today. So good afternoon, and thanks for dialing in or attending our half year results presentation. We're delighted with the strong recovery trends across all divisions in the first half, including record results for Thredbo and our Hotels division. Revenue was up $225 million on the prior half, excluding German Bridging Aid subsidy income, which was recognized last year. And pleasingly, revenue is only down 8.3% on the comparative pre-COVID period in FY '19. Normalized EBITDA was up $100 million on the prior half. The recovery in Entertainment continued with revenue up 31.7% on prior year. The Hotels and Resorts division achieved a record first half revenue on a like-for-like basis after we've adjusted for the temporary closure of Rydges Melbourne, which is undergoing a major upgrade. For Thredbo, the benefits of the new business model were realized with a record first half result and revenue up 28% on the pre-COVID first half '19. Whilst it's early days, we're really pleased with some of the results we're seeing from our recent premiumization projects, including the cinemas and QT Gold Coast. In the half, we also successfully acquired properties aligned to our strategy of acquiring key city properties that can be utilized as operating assets. We're also pleased to divest a few of our noncore properties in the first half and have exceeded our $250 million target. Our balance sheet remains strong with around $2 billion in property and net debt well below the pre-COVID levels at $220 million. We're well positioned for future growth and to capitalize on opportunities as they may arise. Our outlook for the second half is positive for recovery, and we're expected to show a continuation of the recovery trends, welcome, that were demonstrated in the first half. I'll touch on more on this at the end of the presentation. So turning now to the H1 overview. Group revenue was $606.8 million, up $168 million or 38.5% on prior year. And as I said, only down 8.3% on the pre-COVID half year. Normalized EBITDA was $107.7 million, up 68% on the prior comparable half, excluding Bridging Aid III and only 17.9% below the pre-COVID first half '19. The Entertainment result was impacted by fewer releases but the key blockbusters titles that did release performed very well. And EBITDA for the Entertainment Group was up $24.5 million on the prior year, excluding the Bridging Aid III. Hotels and Resorts was a standout with EBITDA of $45.8 million, a record for the division after adjusting for Rydges Melbourne. Thredbo result was also a record with the new business model delivering EBITDA of $41.3 million, up $31.3 million on the prior half. The Property segment revenue was down, was down $2.2 million to $5.1 million due to the successful divestments in the prior year of the Canberra Civic Building and Double Bay. Unallocated costs were impacted by the payment and achievement of short-term incentives relating to the prior year and insurance premium increases, but underlying costs remain below the pre-COVID period. Individually significant items total income of $55.5 million and included the completion of the sale of Rydges North Sydney, and also the settlement with View. Reported net profit was $96.7 million, up $63.4 million on the prior year and up $29.2 million on the reported net profit in the first half of FY '19. So we're pretty pleased with the group results. Taking a look now at the Property division. As you're all well aware, we've got a strong property portfolio based on the most recent valuations at around $2 billion after the sale of the divestment properties. As mentioned, we exceeded our goal of $250 million with total proceeds of $282.4 million, including the sale of the Darwin Cinema Centre in December. And these sales proceeds have exceeded both recent valuations by 28%. We've got a few other properties that have been identified as noncore assets, and we'll seek to divest these when the market conditions are right and we can secure a good outcome. We've acquired a number of properties in the key city locations, including 54 Cook Street Auckland, which is actually the flagship property of our Lylo new budget experience, a combination offer. We purchased the Limes Hotels in Fortitude Valley Brisbane, which will be converted to be the first Lylo in Australia later in the calendar year. We also purchased Alpine Lodge -- Alpenhorn Lodge and Thredbo, which was essential for staff accommodation, and we've increased our interest in ownership in Rydges Latimer and Christchurch to 85%. Our major developments continue to make great progress, and we're on track. As previously indicated, our first major property development is 525 George Street. This is a mixed-use 43-storey development, in a truly integrated hospitality and entertainment offer, which will be unique to Australia, if not internationally. The development comprises of prime George Street retail, a premium Event Cinema, a hotel around 300 rooms with conference base, residential apartments, which are intended to be sold off plan to assist in funding the project. We submitted the Stage Two DA in May last year, and we anticipate approval by the end of this financial year. We've got detailed interior design work underway. We also submitted a Stage One DA last year for the commercial office tower component of the 458-472 George Street property, and we anticipate approval of the Stage One application later in the 2023 calendar year. Once we receive the Stage One approval, we'll provide a further update on timing, but our goals for this project are very clear. We aim to realize the value of the underdeveloped available gross floor area of around 38,000 square meters across the [indiscernible] State Theatre in 458-472 George Street properties, while at the same time, growing the value of our core business with an extension of the QT hotel. As part of our strategic goal to maximize assets, we continued with our premiumization strategy. The QT Gold Coast upgrade is almost complete, which has got a little area of the conferencing to complete by the end of this month. And we also introduced a new accommodation concept called qtQT Cabins, which was previously an underutilized area. Early trading numbers have been very good. We've seen average room rates there, growth of about 60%. Rydges Melbourne, we're really excited about. We hope to hope we will open the doors in May this year. The upgrade includes a new type of room type apartment rooms, and we've extended the conference area by over 1,000 square meters. It's going to be a great hotel in a great location. We're really looking forward to introducing customers to that. Lylo Auckland opened in December to rave reviews for a new accommodation concept and was profitable in its first month of trading. So we're feeling pretty pleased about how that Lylo concept is rolling out. Our key cinema locations included Chermside and Innaloo, and we also opened the Queensgate site in Wellington, which traded as the #2 site in New Zealand in its first month of trading. With the results we're seeing from the premiumization upgrades, we are really confident in the future growth investments. So later this year, we will be converting the Limes Hotel in Brisbane. In Thredbo, we're investing in more snowmaking on the Supertrail and time for the winter season. We've got 3 mountain biking trails also going to be developed in time for the next summer season. In planning, we've got major upgrades for QT Canberra and Rydges Queenstown and more cinema upgrades across Australia and New Zealand. We're also hoping that the proposed Alpine Coaster, which is a year-round attraction will be approved and able to open in time for the next winter season. And we've got preparation work for the Snowgums chairlift, which we're targeting completion subject to approvals in the '25 winter season. Planning is also underway for the Thredbo Golf Course development, and we expect to submit a DA application for that project at the end of the calendar year. We have previously highlighted that we expected capital investment of around $120 million to $150 million, excluding acquisitions. We now expect this to be around $150 million to $180 million, excluding acquisitions, and that's pleasing led down to the fact that some of our key projects have completed ahead of schedule. Now turning to hotels. We are super proud and very impressed with the record result for the Hotels division. After adjusting for the temporary closure of Rydges Melbourne, we achieved like-for-like revenue growth of 17.7% on the first half of the pre-COVID-19 and EBITDA growth of 20.4% on that same period. All of our brands contributed to this result, outperforming the market and maintaining strong guest sentiment. Demand from key segments improved, including leisure, corporate, government, conference and events with the international market growing, but international group business remains subdued and below pre-COVID levels. We were very pleased with the recovery trend in the conference and events segment with inquiry in conversion rates up on the first half or the pre-COVID period of '19. We continue to grow the hotel portfolio with 5 hotels joining the group, and I'll show you those a little later. Our business transformation initiatives also paid dividends with like-for-like EBITDA margin up 0.6 percentage points on pre-COVID despite material cost headwinds, particularly insurance, as well as general inflationary cost pressures. So Norm's here. Congratulations, Norm and team, an outstanding result, and everyone in EVT's truly proud of it. In terms of our key hotel brands, each of our brands achieved record room rate results and better than fair market share. Occupancy is now approaching pre-COVID levels with occupancy in the high 70s with around 80% pre-COVID. Rydges RevPAR was up 18.1% despite the temporary closure of Rydges Melbourne. QT RevPAR was up 20.7% despite the impact of the refurbishment of QT Gold Coast, and Atura delivered a great result up 44.7% on pre-COVID levels. As you can see, all brands are performing very well. The next couple of slides demonstrate the recovery in hotels in the first half. The yellow line represents pre-COVID FY '19 occupancy. As you can see, occupancy levels are getting pretty close to the pre-COVID period, particularly in peak October and November trading months. Demand for corporate travel and C&E are returning to pre-COVID levels. International inbound numbers remained below pre-COVID. However, with China relaxing restrictions, we expect this could normalize towards the end of the current year. Overall, we expect to see some occupancy growth in the second half, but not to the level of pre-COVID. As discussed, we're achieving record rate growth to well above the pre-COVID levels as indicated on this chart. All brands contributed to record growth in rates, but what we're most pleased about is rates going up and also as customer sentiment. Because if you charge more, customers want or you want to make sure that you deliver. So we're very pleased with the customer response to the strategy. And we aim to at least hold rate in the second half subject to market conditions. I wanted to give you some insight into how individual markets are performing, starting with the key Australian markets. As you can see, all markets are outperforming pre-COVID levels with the exception of Sydney and Melbourne for which RevPAR remains slightly below the pre-COVID period. But we think that reflects the strength of the key regional markets in the leisure segment through the COVID period. And we've seen strong trends in corporate travel, which should support recovery in both of these markets throughout the remainder of the year. In New Zealand, it's a bit of a mixed bag. This is expected given the extended period of COVID-19 restrictions on international travel in the country. Christchurch is performing almost in line with pre-COVID driven by the T20 Cricket World Cup and the [indiscernible] convention center, which was just opened. Auckland remains well below with an extended period of international travel restrictions and now you're all are aware of the recent weather conditions. Wellington is trading ahead largely due to the strength of the domestic market and Rotorua and Queenstown are well below pre-COVID levels. However, I have to point out, our Queenstown hotels delivered record rates in the peak trading Christmas, New Year period. So overall, it's clear that the New Zealand markets, they're going to rely on international recovery, and there's a little bit of lag in that time to recover, but we remain very optimistic about the market. Our hotel expansion strategy has evolved over the past few years to provide more opportunities for growth. We now have a solution that meets the entire hotel market from premium to budget options. You can either leverage one of our own brands, or maintain an independent brand and leverage our capabilities. Our own brands include QT hotels, recognized as the leader in premium boutique experiences, and we now have 10 hotels. Rydges, our flagship brand has grown to 44 hotels. Atura, our affordable design-led brand with 5 hotels. We recognized a gap in the market, and we now have Lylo, a new innovative lifestyle accommodation experience. As you know, we completed the acquisition of Jucy Snooze in 2021 with 2 locations in Queenstown and Christchurch, which will both also be converted to Lylo later in this year. and our flagship Lylo Auckland property opened in December and is performing ahead of budget since opening. We call from the Lylo brand proposition and future growth potential for this brand in the coming years and really look forward to opening one in the Australian market later this year. In 2021, we launched the Independent Collection by events, recognizing that the owners were looking for more flexibility and different types of management agreements. And with our ambition to better leverage our capabilities, there is a growth opportunity that was presented. We now have 15 hotels in the Independent Collection group. So we're pleased with how the strategy is evolving and we see plenty more growth within it. Just to highlight some of the hotels joining the portfolio, Rydges King Square Perth, which was formerly a Peppers Resort, Rydges Darling Square Sydney formerly a Radisson, Rydges Rotorua formerly a Holiday Inn and Hotel Alba Adelaide were added. We have had the Tank Stream hotel leave the portfolio, but this is not material. And obviously, the 2 Lylos are acquisitions. Now turning to Thredbo. I feel like I've said record a lot, but it's pretty good to say we achieved a record result at Thredbo with our new business model, resulting in a 74% increase in yield compared to pre-COVID. The new business model is about smarter pricing and just better utilization of capacity. It results in a premium customer experience with shorter queues. That means more time on for customers to enjoy the mountain summer and winter. Thredbo has now been recognized for the sixth year in a row at the World Ski Awards Australia's Best Ski Resort, which is a fantastic achievement by the team. This year summer has been a little more challenging. It's pretty unusual to have snow in November, December and February and electrical storms in the afternoon. But what we're seeing is when we do have the right weather conditions, demand remains strong, and we're pretty pleased with the yield results. The prior, I should highlight that -- the prior half included revenue of $7 million and profit of $6.2 million on our property sales in Thredbo. Excluding this, EBITDA was up 991.5%, I get to say that very often, on the prior half and up 41% on the same half in the pre-COVID year, a pretty great result. Now turning to Entertainment. The Entertainment Group also demonstrated strong recovery trends in the half with revenue up $59.3 million and EBITDA up $21.7 million on the prior year. Revenue remains below pre-COVID levels as the studios continue to delay the release of key blockbuster titles simply due to post-COVID production delays being the main reason. The delay in the film release was partially mitigated though by our premiumization strategy. When we have blockbuster films, we're seeing excellent results with record average admission price and record spend per head. Customers are spending more each visit, as you can see by the charts. We've also seen all customer demographics return to cinemas with our customer age profiles consistent with pre-COVID patterns. We're seeing the benefits of the business transformation initiatives with margin improving by more than 3 percentage points unlike months versus pre-COVID. Pleasingly, we've also been able to maintain market share despite closing 15 underperforming cinemas as part of our fewer based premiumization strategy. We are very pleased to have successfully secured an agreement to operate the new IMAX Sydney, which will be at the Ribbon and Darling Harbour and is due to open in the second half of the calendar year. This is the fourth IMAX in our group, a 693-meter squared screen and 4K laser projection, but we're also really looking forward to bringing our F&B experience and the team are rolling out a new pod type premium seating concept. So it will be a great tourist destination as well as cinema for locals. I mentioned the changes of film lineup, and I just wanted to highlight the impact on the first half. This slide shows the original blockbuster lineup as I presented back to you in August. Since then, Spiderman moved to the next financial year, then Black Adam moved to October. So August and September became very quiet. Puss in Boots moved from August to Boxing Day, the Flash moved out of H1 and will now release mid-June, so benefit the next financial year. So you can see the challenges we're having with the blockbuster release date changes, but when the films are there, customers are returning and spending more each visit. I think as at today, Avatar is at $91 million in the Australian box office. That's a pretty good result. Looking forward to the second half, the current blockbuster lineup from March onwards looks relatively strong as particularly compared with the first half of this financial year. As always, May and June are jampacked with blockbusters, including Guardians of the Galaxy, Fast 10, the Little Mermaid and The Flash. Turning now to New Zealand. We saw similar trends to those in Australia with really strong growth in average admission price and spend per head compared to pre-COVID as shown on the charts. We're also seeing some of the margin improvement when the films perform well. The challenge is to continually find ways to offset increases in the minimum wage. On the 1st of April, the New Zealand minimum wage will increase again by 7%. This represents around 41% increase within a 5-year period. Market share in the New Zealand market has been very strong, up 1.9 percentage points and excluding government wage subsidies in the prior comparable half year, EBITDA improved by $3.6 million. Whilst New Zealand was marginally loss-making in the first half, we expect it to achieve a positive result in the second half based on the outstanding performance of Avatar, which is now the highest grossing film of all time in New Zealand and the second half lineup. Turning now to Germany. The German result is very pleasing, with revenue up 13.2% and EBITDA up 25% on the prior year, excluding the German government's Bridging Aid support recognized in the prior year. We've achieved growth in all key metrics, including average admission price and spend per head, although the AAP growth has been a little more modest, and that's basically down to a much lower mix of premium seating options across our German circuit. We have actually just introduced to 11 screens in Germany, premium seating concepts, and we're seeing really good returns from those. We have seen and we will continue to see a material impact from energy cost increases in Germany. On a like-for-like screen basis, energy costs were EUR 2.5 million, higher than the prior comparable half year. The German government have announced a Subsidy Scheme, which subject to eligibility. We hope to mitigate some of this impact in 2023. The challenge in Germany is similar to New Zealand in terms of finding ways to offset the minimum wage increase, which has also increased around 36% since 2018. As with New Zealand, Avatar has performed incredibly well in Germany and is now the highest grossing film of all time in that market. And we're also very pleased to see the return of the local German titles. School of Magical Animals Part 2 was actually a top 3 film in the first half, which was a local German film. Many of you attended our Investor Day in November and were quite familiar with our strategy. We have 3 strategic goals which really guide our growth, grow revenue above market, maximize assets and business transformation. And you can see from the half year results that we've been able to grow revenue above market, driving higher yields through smarter pricing, better utilization of capacity whilst measuring and acting on customer feedback to grow customer sentiment. The launch of EVT last year has helped us to tell our story better in terms of what we do and how we do it, and we'll continue to tell that story better. We continue to maximize our assets through the divestment of noncore properties, recycling that capital and investing in priority locations whilst driving growth through premiumization upgrades across each division and acquiring key strategic assets for growth. Business transformation initiatives have supported an improvement in margin whilst also delivering material improvements in our culture, community and environment initiatives. I have said it many times, and I might stop saying it at the end of this year, but it's very true. COVID enabled us to truly transform and we've got a stronger platform for growth. So in closing, I just wanted to touch on the outlook for the second half. Look, it's clear that our financial year '23 is trending positively. However, we've got headwinds, and we'll continue to manage them, including the energy cost, wages and inflationary pressures. As mentioned earlier, we expect our capital expenditure in this financial year to be within the range of $150 million to $180 million with -- excluding acquisitions with some key projects pleasingly, completing ahead of schedule where we want them to be. Our balance sheet is very strong and will support continued investment in our priority assets and growth opportunities. In terms of the Entertainment Group's performance, it's subject to, as it always has been, the performance of the overall film lineup. However, as we've said on paper, the second half film lineup looks stronger than the first half. Our Property segment income will continue to track below the prior year following the success of our noncore property divestment strategy, and we believe demand for hotels continues to grow. The rate should be maintained whilst the full recovery in occupancy levels will depend on the recovery of the international market. In Thredbo, as mentioned, summer has been a bit impacted by weather and is tracking slightly below prior year but we expect that winter 2023 performance, which was a record winter to form relatively in line, subject, as always, to snow conditions. So based on the pleasing recovery results, the Board has declared a fully franked dividend of $0.14 per share, following the special dividend of $0.12 per share paid in November. Overall, we expect the second half to show a continuation of the recovery trends demonstrated in the first half, and we're pretty pleased with how the business is progressing. So that's all for me. I'm now open to questions.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Wilson Wong from Jarden.
Wilson Wong
analystJust -- for my first question is just around just the level of operating leverage in the business. Just in light of the group's EBITDA margin just being below where the market had expected in the first half granted, the revenue was a lot stronger.
Jane Hastings
executiveSorry, I didn't capture that.
Unknown Executive
executiveI think about EBITDA margin, Jane, how that would compare to market expectations. Wilson's comment was it was maybe slightly below what he was expecting.
Jane Hastings
executiveWasn't below what we were expecting. I guess when we're seeing like-for-like revenue, we're seeing margin improvement. The challenge that you've had probably with the Entertainment Group is that it's only been 2 months in the first half where we've had like-for-like revenue being July and December. And so that might be skewing your margins a little bit because we just don't have revenue back up in that division to those levels. But the other divisions are definitely delivering margin improvement.
Wilson Wong
analystOkay. Just in terms of the average room rate just going forward just given -- I mean, we are in an elevated sort of level of demand sort of period, where do you sort of see it sort of going over the medium term? Do you expect it to stay at the current elevated levels? And I guess, if not, what do you see as a normalized average room rates?
Jane Hastings
executiveI think everyone would like a crystal ball to answer that question. At this point, we still see demand recovering. And so our best guests looking ahead at the market, and of course, it's subject to change is that we see, I think that rates will be relatively consistent with where they are now. And what's going to change that in the future, probably more recovery from the inbound group business into Australia, which we haven't yet seen yet. That may change market dynamics. But at this point in time, our best guess is what we're seeing at the moment, and that's rates around what we're seeing right now.
Wilson Wong
analystSure. And just elaborating on that international inbound market when it does come back, how much of a further recovery in occupancy levels and room rates would you reasonably expect?
Jane Hastings
executiveSo even then, there is -- I mean I can't give you an overall number because there are some properties where we would take that business and other properties post-COVID where we might not because we've actually developed other segments of the market. Coming out of COVID, we've really reset what the right occupancy is for each hotel, which is driving a different strategy from pre-COVID, so there will be some of our hotels that benefit from that, but there will be some other locations that may have taken it before that may not take it now because we're happy with the segments that we've attracted.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from John O'Shea from Ord Minnett.
John O'Shea
analystJane, can you hear me okay?
Jane Hastings
executiveYes, I can hear you.
John O'Shea
analystI guess from when I look at your outlook, my question is when you put it all together and you expect, you noticed the comments -- I noticed the comments where you have said second half improvement. Are you referring there to the first half? I guess that's the first question.
Jane Hastings
executiveYes. Referring to the first half.
John O'Shea
analystYes. So that means that when you put it all together, am I reading it correctly in saying that normal [indiscernible] NPATs in the second half, you would say, would be stronger than the first half.
Jane Hastings
executiveYou remember, you've got to adjust for Thredbo. So the Thredbo...
John O'Shea
analystYes, of course.
Jane Hastings
executiveYes, adjusting for Thredbo and subject to the films releasing that we've seen on paper today, and I think we've got to put a bit of caution about date changes, we see no reason why it would be better than the first half.
John O'Shea
analystYes. Just wanted to clarify that. The second question from me is you mentioned about corporate travel sector. Just wondered if you can give some further color on that in light of the economic environment we're seeing, and perhaps looking further ahead in terms of where that might go to. And at the same time, the increase in supply of rooms in hotels, particularly in Melbourne, in that context, and I guess, Sydney to a lesser extent.
Jane Hastings
executiveOkay. So from a corporate market perspective, we're still seeing that recovery. As you know, our circuit attracts kind of small, medium enterprise. And that was the first market to return, and that's why Rydges has probably performed so well relative to the market. But we're still -- we're not seeing any change in behavior in terms of corporate travel. We're actually seeing more recovery from those segments at the moment. And we've definitely seen that through conference and events. So companies are wanting to get teams back together. Often, they're smaller groups, but there's more bookings. So higher frequency, smaller gatherings is what we're seeing in that segment. And our rate of inquiries is that we've still got a bit more recovery to go. So we're not seeing any pullbacks in those segments yet. In terms of increased supply into Melbourne, locations can like where Rydges is positioned, where QT is positioned, is not really where the increased supplies coming into. It's further on the outskirts of Melbourne. And so we feel pretty comfortable even with the increase in supply about how, about the market we're reopening Rydges Melbourne and QT Melbourne flying.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Sam Teeger from Citi.
Sam Teeger
analystKind of can to flesh out how you're thinking about the film slate in a bit more detail. I appreciate your comments that the second half will be stronger than the first half, but how are you thinking about second half versus the PCP?
Jane Hastings
executiveWell, that's a really interesting one. And thanks, Sam. I should say hello. Look, the prior comparative period had some pretty strong films in the second half and versus 2019 was Avengers: Endgame, which was in the FY '19 year. So we are comparing it to the first half because we think we've got some pretty tough competition if you do the pure lineup play versus the prior year. But as you know, it just takes one of those films to outperform and pick an audience and it changes that situation. So really, at this point in time, with the date changes and the lineup, our best way of providing any guidance is comparing to the first half, and we know that we've got more films on paper now than we had in the first half.
Sam Teeger
analystGot it. So should I take that to me, yes, you'd be up on the first half, but maybe down on the pcp given the strong films in the pcp.
Jane Hastings
executiveYes. I mean that's hard to answer. That sheer reason of those films just may -- one of those firms or 2 of those films just may fly. But at this point, yes, we're just looking at it first half, second half.
Sam Teeger
analystAll right. And look, the spend per head growth you've achieved is really impressive. Just wondering, do you expect this to normalize at some point? Or will this be the new norm? And to what extent would a movie like Avatar be driving the spend per head significantly?
Jane Hastings
executiveThere's no doubt that blockbusters help our spend per head growth. But looking at the lineup, we've got plenty of blockbusters. So it's not the type of film, which is raising any concerns. We -- it's unlikely we're going to be -- we're increasing by 50% every year. We've put a lot of change in strategy- into pricing, merchandising, layout. There's a lot that's gone into the makeup of the increase in spend. And so we would probably get back to more moderate growth once the lineup re-settles. But we don't, we believe that we can maintain what we've, how much we've grown.
Sam Teeger
analystOkay. And lastly, just maybe CapEx, can't understand of the $150 million to $180 million, what will relate to Rydges Melbourne and what are the other kind of major projects in that. And then going forward beyond the CR. Should we be thinking $150 million to $180 million is going be normal.
Jane Hastings
executiveLook, I can't relate directly to projects because obviously, we've got performance contracts in place. And so we still want to get these projects done in the second half. But we believe around $150 million, moving ahead is about the rate -- yes, circa $150 million is where we're hitting. If we see opportunities at the right cost base to bring forward some of our projects, we'll do that. But based on our current view of the market and pricing and projects and availability, probably circa $150 million.
Sam Teeger
analystAll right. And actually, last question. I know you talked a bit about hotel rates and your outlook. And I imagine you have some visibility when you look at your forward bookings. But if you think about your offerings, you cover 3-star, 4-star and 5-star properties, if there is going to be softening at some point, what seen in the market do you think we'll see it in first.
Jane Hastings
executiveThat's a very good question. It's one that we actually debate if that's going to happen. Once again, with our circuit in particular, brand and location are everything. And so you can choose to follow or you can choose to hold your ground because you've got a strategic advantage with location and brand. And we believe we've got that with the upper end of our portfolio, particularly with QTs. If you get down to the Lylo segment, I mean, in the Auckland market alone, it's actually been the 5 star in the budget segments, which have recovered first. We were covering better in that market. And so we think we don't have any good competition at the level that we're offering the Lylo products. We feel pretty good about that. And then there will be variances within the Rydges network based on location. So it's tougher when that comes in on the outer skirt -- out of outskirts of Sydney that may be a little bit tougher, but key city locations with great locations.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Brian Han from Morningstar.
Brian Han
analystThe company has done a lot of work on its cost base during the depth of COVID. Now the conditions are normalizing, can you have a sense as to how much of that cost out will come back? And how much of that will be inflation driven as opposed to head count driven?
Jane Hastings
executiveSo good question. We believe that, I mean, we're back at the level that we're operating in this half, we're calling ourselves back. That is our post-COVID operating level. Look, we're very aware that we have got some inflationary pressures and wage pressures and I highlighted a couple of the minimum wage, but I've also highlighted that, and that's been happening over the past 5 years, and we've managed to find ways to offset that. So look, there will be some wage pressure, we think, looming ahead, but we believe that there will also be ways to partially offset that, pricing, more efficiency, et cetera, and we'll look to find different ways to do that.
Brian Han
analystOkay. All I have you there, just another question. Congrats on the cinema result. But looking at the industry on a more longer-term basis post-COVID, do you think the sheer amount of content on streaming will have some impact on movie going? Well, the fact that you've seen some moviemakers seem to be creating more like TV-centric episodes for the streaming market.
Jane Hastings
executiveLook, we're a blockbuster business. We always have been. And there is no lack of blockbusters in the lineup in terms of what's been green lit and what's coming out. And streaming is not new. It's been around for a while now, and it's been right through COVID. If people wanted to truly change their behavior, they've had plenty of time to adjust. And if you just look at Avatar, like if there's a great blockbuster. People want to come out and see it on the big screen. So looking ahead, we believe that we're actually more confident in the cinema business, having had that COVID experience with streaming and just seeing how studios operate, they retain their best films for cinema. In fact, we've got streaming that films that were dated for streaming now being dated for a cinema release in advance of streaming. So I think that consumers are consuming more content than ever before. But on average, we're after 4 visits a year, and there will be at least 4 blockbusters for you to come and see.
Operator
operatorThere are no further phone questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Ms. Hastings.
Unknown Analyst
analystJust a question on hotels. The first quarter was a small beat compared to FY '19, but the second quarter was a little bit behind. Could you give a little bit more color on some trends that you saw in the second quarter?
Jane Hastings
executiveI think you've got to adjust for everything when you adjust for Rydges Melbourne, shows quite a good beat on both quarters. So I think, there's no -- there was not a stronger first quarter than the second quarter. I think adjusted and underlying. There's not any issues that we're seeing.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. Great. And just on the cinema, so the record revenue per admit, which is a fantastic result. Are you seeing this in January and February, like those you've seen?
Jane Hastings
executiveYes, we're holding the advantages that taken because it's not, remember, it's not just price driven. There's been a lot of changes underneath that. And we've also got more cinemas to apply those changes to. So we're feeling pretty good about where we're sitting right now.
Unknown Analyst
analystGreat. And on the, on Thredbo, I think the disclosure changed a little bit, not breaking down the summer and the winter split.
Jane Hastings
executiveI think so. That's because we've only got a few weeks of summer, for no other reason, we'll give you a full breakdown at the full year.
Unknown Analyst
analystThat's good to know.. And then just on the tax rate, it seemed like it was a little bit higher than what we're expecting. I think it was more than 30%. Is there any reason for this?
Gregory Dean
executiveThere's not really -- a we kind of expecting in a normal year, it will be what you expect just potentially a little bit above 30% because the German tax rate is sort of 31.5%, but there is some deferred tax balances where we true them up each reporting period and particularly with regards to the losses that are in Germany, as I think you know, there's some booked and some unbooked, so that's that true-up that impacts our tax rate, particularly on the lower level.
Nicholas McGarrigle
analystYes. It's Nick from Barrenjoey. Just building on John's astute question around second half profitability. Are you saying that we take the first half profit less the Thredbo result and that's what will be comparable in the second half versus the first half? Or you're saying because there's a very strong pipeline of films, bearing in mind that those actually screen that the overall number should be comparable second half versus first half?
Jane Hastings
executiveWhat we're saying is we think the other businesses are tracking. Well -- and we don't see a change in those trends. Thredbo clearly is going to be subject to weather in the winter week and we've taken the majority of earnings in. And we're saying that the second half lineup of films at this point look like we've got more films in the first half, so it should do better.
Nicholas McGarrigle
analystSo overall, so 40 and then 40 again. Is that the -- I guess that's what we're trying to get to the bottom of in terms of what that guidance pertains to.
Jane Hastings
executiveYes, but we're not giving guidance because it's impossible, right? Because the film line up, we, that's why we showed you what we showed you in August and then what we ended up with at the end of the year was substantially different. It really is stay tuned on the cinema lineup because it's still changing.
Nicholas McGarrigle
analystI think maybe just to draw the significance of having a really stacked July, then it really stacked December in terms of content. It looks like towards the back end of this half year, it's similarly busy. Can you talk about the way the earnings for that segment respond to being as opposed to having the content spread, but having those really busy peak utilization times what that means for earnings?
Jane Hastings
executiveWell, it actually is no different to how it's always been. So we've always had the December, January and then maybe something in March and then really it's a May, June. So actually, the trend in terms of what we're seeing with the lineup would be similar to every other year.
Nicholas McGarrigle
analystBut is it better because you end up with a higher utilization of the circuit at that point in time if there's a lot of content, like December is super profitable? Or is it more just the content?
Jane Hastings
executiveMore just the content. It's always about how good the film is.
Unknown Analyst
analystBenjamin, JPMorgan. Just wondering on the Thredbo result, how much of that was driven by volume? And how much of that is a pricing effect?
Jane Hastings
executiveSo we basically -- we've reduced the amount of capacity but not to -- we've reduced the amount of capacity, and we've changed our pricing model. So basically, we have more day pass, we've got a focus on more day pass visitors. And that day pass is still less valued less than its nearest competitor. And then what we've done is just reset the season pass model. So if you're a skier, that is skiing more than 10 days a year, it's relevant to you. That was probably down around about 5, 6 days prior, so we've increased that. So slightly lower volume of sales, but we've adjusted our pricing across the 2 key groups. We've also then cleaned out events that we're operating in peak periods so that we can have a premium experience, and we've moved the events to the off-peak periods.
Unknown Analyst
analystExcellent. And I noticed in the balance sheet, you had a large portion of the debt that came current. Do you have any comments on plans for refinancing?
Gregory Dean
executiveYes. Our current facility is out to the 3rd of [ July ] this year. So we're obviously in negotiation with refinancing that at the moment. We've got 3 really good relationships with our banks. This current facility, we did just during the start of COVID. So it was a very trying time, but obviously, we're in a good spot now with the refinance.
Edward Woodgate
analystEd Woodgate from CCZ. I was just wondering if you could comment on some of the cap rates from the divestitures and acquisitions you made during the half. I know some of them were agreed previously. So maybe they're not reflective of current market rates. And maybe you could also talk about what you're seeing just in the cap rates generally in the market as well?
Jane Hastings
executiveWell,, we're not talking about the divestment properties. I mean we've said 28% above recent valuations as a kind of guide to that. We do believe that there's been a touch of COVID conservatism and the valuation through that period. But until we actually revalue the properties, and there's a large lot coming up in this June period this year, and that will give us a bit of look.
Edward Woodgate
analystOkay. And then just in relation to the question about the age-old question about streaming on impact on cinemas. I guess there's a lot of people along this [dock] don't really believe it's going to be a big impact. Is there any data that you can speak to maybe in relation to the age distribution of the customers who are attending today versus a 4, 5 years ago.
Jane Hastings
executiveIt's the same.
Edward Woodgate
analystExactly the same, so basically, the youth is still coming.
Jane Hastings
executiveOh, yes, Youth is still coming. I mean, youth is still coming to the movies. The actual only segment that we've had less visitation slightly have been seniors, but there's been no senior films released. So it's all a product of what the film slate is. But if you look at Avatar, every demographic has come. If you look at Ant-Man this weekend, all the typical demographic come in. So we track that quite frequently to see if there's any change in any customer segments, and we're not seeing it.
Edward Woodgate
analystSure. And then just in relation to your forward bookings, if you are able to go into detail there, there's been some speculation rather wrongly amongst some people that as inflation picks up and as international affairs decrease, that maybe the domestic leisures travel will go down. Have you seen any indication that compared to the pcp, there's any issues there?
Jane Hastings
executiveYes -- I mean, like, we're aware of all of these metrics and the noise and everything else. But what we're seeing in our data across all of our businesses at the moment is no change. So until we see that change, it's difficult to predict the future.
Edward Woodgate
analystOkay. congrats on the results, it looks like a much better business today than it was 5 years ago.
Jane Hastings
executiveThank you.
April Lowis
analystOne more question from me. April from Barrenjoey. What are you seeing in terms of the German film lineup, so the German-specific films?
Jane Hastings
executiveWell, we have basically, it's actually quite interesting looking at that the other night, we're returning to a more normal pattern. So it's kind of 20% to 30% of box office in Germany. And looking ahead, we're starting to see that volume of product coming through. So it's normalizing. Again, subject to how good their film was. Great. Thank you all for your questions and for attending today.
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