EVT Limited (EVT) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the EVT Limited half year results. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to hand the conference over to Ms. Jane Hastings, CEO. Please go ahead.

Hi, everyone. Before we get started this morning, I'd like to acknowledge the traditional custodians of the land I'm speaking to you from this morning, the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation. I would like to pay my respects to our past and present, and I'd like to acknowledge any and all aboriginal and Torres Strait older people joining us today. Thanks, everyone, for making time this morning to join the call. In terms of first half overview, we're pleased with the revenue and earnings growth achieved in hotels and entertainment, underpinning the group revenue up 8.6%. As you know, Thredbo was impacted by the worst winter weather conditions for nearly 20 years, which impacted group EBITDA result of $96.1 million, down 10.8% on prior year. This is a good result given the $19.2 million reduction in Thredbo EBITDA due to the unusual weather conditions and the delay in some blockbuster film releases due to the Hollywood strike action. Net debt of $300.6 million remains below pre-COVID levels, the balance sheet remains strong and positions us really well for future growth. Based on the half year result, the Board has declared a fully franked interim dividend of $0.14 per share, which will be paid in March. I'll cover the outlook for the second half later in the presentation. Turning now to the half year EBITDA overview. Normalized EBITDA was $96.1 million with growth in earnings from all divisions except Thredbo. The entertainment result was strong with EBITDA growth of 19.6% on the prior half. Barbie and Oppenheimer performed particularly well with our premiumization strategy continuing to deliver record results when we have good films. I'd like to highlight that this result has been delivered with 12 fewer cinemas as part of our fewer better strategy. The hotel's EBITDA result was also strong, up 4% on the prior half year. This is a great result considering since 2019, we've divested or closed hotels, which previously contributed around $6.7 million of EBITDA in the half. The Thredbo result was impacted by the weather conditions. 50% of snow runs were able to open compared to 100% in the prior year and the season closed 2 weeks earlier. As a result, the resort delivered EBITDA of $22.1 million. The group's unallocated corporate costs were in line with prior year despite market cost challenges, and we continue to invest in new capabilities and growth areas of the business. Reported net profit after tax and individually significant items was $27.1 million, down $69.6 million, but the prior year included the benefit of $55 million in property sales and other one-off items. Turning now to the Entertainment division. Entertainment Group revenue was $386 million, up 12.7% and EBITDA of $36.9 million. The entertainment result was achieved despite an estimated 10% impact on market box office from release delays relating to the Hollywood strikes in the first half. In the first half, Barbie and Oppenheimer certainly helped grow overall admissions, up 12.4% on prior year. But we're experiencing record results when high-quality blockbuster titles are released and like-for-like admission periods continue to demonstrate good margin improvement despite cost pressures. Importantly, data both externally and internally demonstrates that cinema is a preferred choice of entertainment when there's pressure on discretionary spend, which clearly benefits our business. We've achieved growth in admissions, revenue and EBITDA across Australia, New Zealand and Germany. Australian admissions were up 10.3%. New Zealand admissions were up 23.3% assisted by the opening of Event Cinemas Queensgate late in the prior half year. Pleasingly, New Zealand also returned to positive EBITDA, up $2 million on the prior half. German admissions were up 11.7%, whilst EBITDA was up 2.3% on the prior half. The prior half also included culture fund German government subsidy support that was not repeated this year. We continue to see marginal growth across all territories when we have good films, EBITDA per admission growth was achieved in Australia, New Zealand and Germany adjusting for subsidies. Our premiumization strategy has continued to deliver growth and yield, resulting in record results in average admission price and spend be heard, which you can see on this slide. In Australia, AAP and spend continued to grow, and we are well ahead of pre-COVID up 25.7% and 53.1%, respectively. AAP was up 3.4%, and SPH or spend per year was up 0.8% on prior year. In New Zealand, a similar result with AAP up 47.3% and spend up 51.7% on pre-COVID. AAP was up 4.3% and spend was marginally down 0.4% on prior year for New Zealand. In Germany, AAP was up 9.6% and spend was up 39.8% on pre-COVID. AAP was up 0.7% and spend per share was up 3.1% on prior year. These are really good results considering the change in mix of films, less 3D contribution and a greater proportion of box office from world, family and mid-tier films, which generally deliver less spend per head. Turning now to the ventures division. We've got a strong property portfolio, most recently valued at $2.3 billion. In the half, we increased our interest in Rydges Christchurch to 100% and acquired a property in Free Mentor for a planned conversion to a new Lylo with work expected to commence in financial year '25. Our major developments continue to progress. As previously indicated, we expect the first of our major property developments to be 525 George Street in Sydney. The development comprises of a 43-story mixed-use development with an integrated hospitality and entertainment offer. Prime George Street Retail, a premium event cinema, a hotel with around 280 rooms and conference space and residential apartments around 100 apartments, all of which are 2 to 3 bedrooms. The Stage 2 DA was approved in May 2023, and we're currently considering funding options for the development and finalizing the detailed design documentation to assess construction costs and financial year '25. In relation to the 458-472 George Street development, we previously secured DA approval for the podium component, which includes the extension of the QT Sydney Hotel, and we've commenced the planning for a hotel tower above the podium and aim to prepare a DA submission for that this year. We've also been launching new experiences, including the conversion of Lime's Hotel Brisbane to Australia's first Lylo which is expected to open in June. We submitted a DA for a Lylo development on the underutilized land at QT Gold Coast, opened IMAX Sydney in October, which is already in the top 10 of all cinemas in Australia despite having only one auditorium. We also signed an agreement with IMAX for 2 additional IMAX screen conversions in Australia and 4 in Germany by the end of 2025. We opened 2 new ScreenX auditoriums in Robina in Campbelltown and made significant progress on the installation of Thredbo's new Alpine coaster, which was targeted to open this winter. And we also completed an upgrade of our ever popular QT Melbourne rooftop bar. [indiscernible] continues for our key location and premiumization upgrades, including the upgrade of Rigids Queenstown, including seismic rectification works, the upgrade of [indiscernible], and we have premium cinema upgrades in Australia, including Campbelltown, Castle Hill and Innaloo, Marion and Burwood in the second half and in Germany at Bremen and Dorland. Thredbo snowmaking upgrade and mountain biking trail expansion continues, and we are planning for the replacement of the Snowgums Chairlift. Turning now to the Travel division. As previously commented, the Thredbo winter season did not go our way, and we had the lowest natural snowfall in nearly 20 years, coupled with marginal snowmaking conditions. Despite the marginal conditions in shortened season, our new business model resulted in winter yield up 76% on pre-Covid and continue to provide guests with a more premium experience, which was reflected in our high customer sentiment scores. Thredbo's now being recognized for the seventh year in a row at the World Ski Awards as Australia's Best Ski Resort, which is an incredible achievement and credit to the team. The summer season started strong with strong demand growth for pre-season season pass sales. However, once again, poor weather conditions impacted the ability to trade with closures during the key Christmas trading period. Overall, once demand for mountain biking remains strong, the resort had an increase in days close compared to the prior year, resulting in a 10.7% decrease in revenue in November and December. Turning now to the hotel division. The hotels division delivered good revenue and EBITDA growth. Note that we have now included Lylo rooms and our owned hotel occupancy rate and RevPAR statistics in this presentation. Owned hotel occupancy was up 3 points to 76.2%, still below pre-COVID levels but growing. On a like-for-like basis, excluding Lylo occupancy was up 2 percentage points. In the half, record room rates were achieved. However, with the inclusion of Lylo and a greater contribution from Rydges driven by the reopening ramp-up period of Rydges Melbourne, the overall owned hotel average rate was marginally down on last year. A record RevPAR was achieved up 1.2% on prior year. All our brands are continuing to deliver more than their fair market share. And we've grown the network to 80 hotels in December, and we're confident that we'll continue to grow. In terms of our key hotel brands, rate growth on record year levels across each brand. Like-for-like occupancy grew 0.7 percentage points for Rydges. The decrease on this table reflects the ramp-up period for Rydges Melbourne. Each of our brands achieved record RevPAR results. Rydges RevPAR was up 18.9% on pre-COVID levels and up 0.7% on prior year. Q2 RevPAR was up 23.9% on Pre-COVID and up 2.7% on prior year. Atura RevPAR was up 44.7% on Pre-COVID and flat with prior year. The yellow line on the chart represents Pre-COVID FY '19 occupancy. Occupancy is still recovering to the -- our occupancy is still recovering to mid- to high 70s compared to around 80% Pre-COVID. As you can see, occupancy levels are getting closer to the Pre-COVID level, particularly in the peak trading months of October and November. Market-wide occupancy was up in most markets with the exception of Canberra, Gold Coast, Adelaide and regional New South Wales and Wellington and New Zealand. The post-COVID boom blip and domestic leisure travel appears to be normalizing, but we're still ahead of pre-COVID levels. We're seeing growth from all other market segments, which should support continued growth in occupancy in 2024. As discussed, we've achieved record rates and rates are still well above the pre-COVID levels as shown on this chart. Market-wide rates were up in most markets with the exception of Melbourne, Canberra, Gold Coast, Adelaide, Auckland and Wellington. Special events are and continue to be a key driver of rate growth with customers willing to accept higher rates at times of peak demand such as this month's Taylor Swift concerts in Melbourne and Sydney. Rates are likely to come off a little as occupancy grows, given different segments of the market returning, including inbound groups and crew business. However, we still expect the rates to be well ahead of pre-COVID. As you know, our hotel strategy has evolved over the past few years to enable expansion. We have a hotel solution that meets the needs of the entire market from premium to budget experiences from leveraging one of our own brands or maintaining an independent brand and leveraging our capabilities. Our own brands include QT hotels, recognized as a leader in premium boutique experiences and continues to deliver awards. Rydges, where we have set a new standard for the brand with Rydges Melbourne, and we are pleased to have secured the Tank Stream Hotel in Sydney, which will be relaunched as a Rydges Australia Square in mid-2024. Atura, our affordable Design lead brand and the Lylo brand, a game-changing lifestyle budget accommodation experience. In 2021, we launched the independent collection by EVT, which enables owners to retain their own brand or more recently, we've been creating a brand for them and they leverage our management expertise. This is proving successful. We're confident that our brands can add value to owners in international markets. We're investing and building our brand awareness and developing relationships in Southeast Asia. However, we're realistic that establishing a presence will take time, and we're going to be patient for the right opportunities. In the half year, we were delighted to add 3 hotels to this collection, the 134-room stunning Hotel Telegraph in Singapore which we took over in December, January. And the 59 room harbor Rock Hotel and the 63-room old Clear Hotel in Sydney, which we are now managing as part of the luxe of the independent collection. We're excited about Lylo as what we're creating is unique in the budget market segment. The results from Auckland have exceeded expectations. As an example, Lylo Auckland is the #1 hotel booked on Booking.com in Auckland. Next Voila is the conversion of [ Limes Hotel ] in Brisbane to Lylo Brisbane, which will include 82 Lylo pads, 5 private family rooms, a co-working and co-living space, and we expect to open in June. We also identified an opportunity to develop a flagship Lylo on underutilized land at QT Gold Coast. We submitted the development application earlier this month and expect the approval process to take around 6 to 9 months. Lylo Gold Coast will include around 200 pods, 60 private on-suite rooms, a poolside [indiscernible] bar and restaurant and co-working and co-living spaces for guests. We're working on expansion of Lylo Auckland due to demand to add 120 pods and 8 family rooms to Level 4 of the property together with a communal kitchen and shared spaces, and this is expected to be open later in the 2024 calendar year. Finally, we acquired 19 [indiscernible] Street and Fremantle and this will be converted to a new Lylo with construction expected to commence in financial year '25. Many of you will be really familiar with our strategy now. Our 3 strategic goals that guide the group are to grow revenue above market, maximize assets and business transformation. You can see from the half year results that we've been able to grow revenue above market through smarter pricing, launching new experiences and listening and improving on customer feedback. We see hotels expansion as a priority growth segment for our group. We continue to maximize our assets and grow property values, investment in priority locations and premium upgrades that are helping us to achieve this. We'll look to divest noncore assets when the market timing is right, and we can achieve the best outcome. The properties we acquire and retain are focused on key city assets that are or can be converted to support hotel growth. We're implementing business transformation initiatives constantly that have assisted in offsetting unprecedented cost increases whilst also delivering material improvements in our culture, community and environment initiatives. Looking now ahead to the second half, we expect a record second half result in hotels, assisted by Rydges Melbourne and occupancy continuing to recover. In Thredbo, the strong summer presale demand has been impacted by weather conditions for enclosures. And as a result, summer performance is tracking below last year, and we expect the second half summer months to be loss-making. The 2024 winter performance will be subject, as always, to weather conditions. If we get good conditions, the business model will deliver strong results. In entertainment, last year's Hollywood strikes has impacted global Studios production schedules and film release dates. Looking ahead to the second half film line up, we expect that around 30% of potential second half box office has moved out of the period due to last year's Hollywood strikes. This considers a delay of releases like Deadpool 3 and Captain America, Spiderman, Mission Impossible, Disney, SnowWhite and Alio, et cetera. Comparing this to last year, you can see that we're also cycling some strong titles, including Avatar, The Way of Water, which grossed $44.8 million in the second half and the Super Mario's movie for families, which grossed $51.5 million at the Australian box office. Key titles that we see in the current second half lineup include Gene Part 2, the Mad Max called Furiosa, Despicable Me, [indiscernible] and Inside Out. It's important to also highlight that the European championships will be held in Germany in June and July, which will negatively impact Sunesta performance over the summer months. As a result, we expect Germany to break even in the second half. This also adjusts for prior year German government subsidies. So we expect the second half to perform below the second half of FY '23. And as is always, is subject to the appeal of films when released. Our teams have done an incredible job transforming the way we do business to offset energy wages and other inflation pressures and still invest in areas for growth, and we're going to continue to do so. Overall, we expect the second half to be down on the prior comparable period due to the external factors outlined. We are confident that these headwinds are short term and will be well managed. The hotel division is performing very well with more opportunity for growth. And when we get reasonable weather conditions and a film lineup normalizes, we expect to deliver strong growth. Thank you, and I'll now take any questions.

[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from Russell Gill with JPMorgan.

This is Taya here from JPMorgan. Firstly, just around the outlook commentary for the entertainment sector, where you say the Hollywood strike is to impact second half box office by around 30% against PCP. Does this refer to revenue down 30%? And if so, how will you maintain operations to offset the decline without experiencing significant deleverage?

So good question. It does represent box office, which is revenue for the second half. And in terms of how we operate, we have a -- we've got a certain fixed cost base, which we need to cover, which was very well adjusted post-COVID. And I think everyone has seen the benefits of that change in model. And really, it's just going to be about flexing our casual workforce, flexing our operating hours and continuing to look for ways to find smaller mid-tier films and really promote world films, which have -- which are a growing proportion of box office in the first half of this year, and we'll need to look for that in the second half. But as we've highlighted, offsetting the blockbuster titles, that's not a task that can be done in the second half.

And also the outlook for Germany. When you refer to breakeven, is this on an EBITDA NPAT EBIT line?

Yes, it's on an EBITDA line.

Guideline. Okay. And then just finally, one for me. Just around the CapEx profile. How are we to think about it going into second half and then FY '25? Just regarding the new developments at George Street. When will we know if this is going ahead? And also kind of for how much?

Right. So I just presented that it would be in the financial year '25 that we're assessing the costs of the 525 George Street project. So we have a weeway to go before we're going to give you an indication of that because there's some work to do beforehand. In terms of immediate CapEx, we had guided to around $160 million of CapEx. We think it will come in lower than that at this point in time, around about $120 million. And that's really just due to a couple of factors, but most primarily, it's just a delay in really supply of goods to complete projects into the country and just some reprioritizing as we always do when we look at numbers as they come in and assess projects.

Your next question comes from Brian Han with Morningstar.

Jane, can you please elaborate on some of the drivers of the first half EBITDA margin decline for hotels?

Yes. I think you can primarily point to the ramp-up of Rydges Melbourne. So we had previously indicated that it would take around 2 years because we're reopening a new hotel and things like big conferences. It's a big conference hotel. They don't book on the day. They book kind of a year out for their conference. So there's been a ramp-up period of Rydges Melbourne, which has put a drag on the EBITDA margin in that period. And really, there has been some adjustment -- there's been a small movement in getting labor sits right as occupancy increases, but primarily, I'd point to the ramp-up of Rydges Melbourne.

Those temporary factors, do you expect them to sort of continue in the current half?

Well, Rydges, Melbourne is still ramping up. So we do expect there to be -- it's going to get better. But as we said, it will take 2 years to kind of get to the normalized point, which will still be above obviously, pre the upgrade, but we do expect those to continue into this half.

Okay. And lastly, again on hotels, Jane. Can you please talk a bit about the competitive dynamics and especially the supply situation for both your Q2 at the premium end and Rydges in the mid-market?

So I suppose everybody is looking at Melbourne with the increase in supply as the key market. And as we've highlighted before, a lot of that increased supplies in the outskirts area of Melbourne, but rather in the key locations where we are. And we feel that where our QT locations are, their prime locations, and we're not seeing a whole lot of competition going up around us that would impact that at this point in time. So we're not using increased supply outside of maybe a regional market in Albury where we've seen increased supply in a smaller market have a small impact. But outside of that in our key cities, we think our locations are proving to be great locations.

Your next question comes from Edward Woodgate with Jarden.

Okay. Great. So just maybe just following on from the Rydges Melbourne comment. Can you call out what the incremental cost Melbourne Rydges actually put through the P&L this half and what the earnings were?

No, we don't release information on individual hotels.

Okay. All right. And then just on RevPAR, you're talking to Darin the second half. So what does that is that assume in relation to occupancy growth and rate compression. And I guess, could you call out what you're saying with rates [indiscernible]

Yes. We do think that rates will -- I mean we've -- across our brands, we managed to hold and get some growth, which was really good. But as occupancy increases, because occupancy increase is coming from international, and it is a slow increase because of the capacity constraints still in the hotel industry, but it's coming from international inbound group business, which is coming in at a much higher rate than pre-COVID but still a lower rate overall and also crew business recovering. And international travel is moving, but there's still capacity constraints. So we do see that rates might come off a little bit. We are aiming to hold them, but they may come off of it and that our RevPAR growth is coming from occupancy.

Okay. Great. And then just one more on hotels. So the Clear Hotel in Singapore Hotel Telegraph in Singapore, why they choose EVT? And are there any other owners in the managed agreements network who have overseas hotels, they could tap into that network.

I mean why wouldn't you choose EVT? I think that's -- you'd expect me to probably say that. Look, there's -- we're seeing a good opportunity for us at this point in time because the larger global brands have created new brands and extended. But as an owner and operator of a property, that segment of the market, they don't want one company with a new brand still trying to tell them they're going to look after their hotels and independent hotel if that makes sense. So there's -- so the larger brands have got so many brands in those markets as a block. I think we're a fresh opportunity with somebody that doesn't have -- that's going to totally focus on the performance of those properties, and we've got enough brands to introduce and make sure that we now cover the types of properties that we would like to manage. So Hotel Telegraph has been a great one, and it was a competitive process. So we are, as I've indicated in the presentation, putting some investment in resource into Southeast Asia to start to build more relationships, but we are going to be selective about the type of hotels that we bring into the group so that it does complement the brands and we can deliver good results.

Okay. Great. And then just quickly on [indiscernible], I appreciate you called out the revenue impact due to [indiscernible], but -- sorry, you called out how much revenue was down year-on-year but are you able to actually call out the specific revenue that was lost due to the lease being closed during that period?

I think I highlighted that we're down 10.7% in November-December revenue for summer due to those days lost.

Yes. Okay. So it just exclusively basically due to that. Okay.

Basically, key peak trading days because of wind conditions we were closed and partially closed through that period.

Yes, sure. And then just last question for me because I mentioned there's a bunch of people eager to jump in. When do you think the film slate will get back to pre-COVID levels or even just say like of levels in the last 6 months? I imagine there's some degree of dialogue with inhibitors. I don't know if you do have any visibility on their production intentions. But yes, any sort of color there would be helpful.

Yes, sure. I mean, good question. The -- and the simplest answer to that is the studios are still working out what their lineups are doing and kind of scheduling films and talent to complete production post the strikes. Our indication from the studios is they expect to have a better view at the end of March, which is the quarter 1 this year. We have -- there's -- we have the CinemaCon which happens in April in the U.S., and that's the period of time where all of the major studios come out and talk about confirmed release slate. So I think that's a guiding time for us to get more certainty around Watson and what's out. Because with the strikes, you can imagine they are picking up productions that are on the shelf, productions that are in progress, and they're going, which ones can we make faster, who's available, how do we schedule that and what happens. And there's a lot of cross studio talent that needs to be dealt with. So the best guide for us is end of March. CinemaCon in April should give us a good view. And so -- and we're in regular contact with them. If you read external media, and you hear what's been talked about really everyone's framing 2024 is the strike-impacted year. When we look ahead, I mean, we've got -- in 2025, you've got mission impossible Avatar, some really strong titles coming out from kind of end of quarter 1 calendar year '25. And it seems to be quite a consistent flow of really good titles, very strong titles from that point forward. But I'd be hesitant to say those dates are firm at this point in time. So I think CinemaCon in April, where we get to directly meet with all the studios and really look at production schedules and lineup will be a good guide. And I would imagine there will be a lot of media out of that, which will help support providing a little more insight into that.

Your next question comes from Sam Teeger with Citi.

Just in terms of the guidance for second half box office to be down 30% on PCP. How much do you expect your premiumization strategies and market share gains would offset it?

I don't think -- well, if you don't interpret the films, you can't offset us. You can see the growth and we've been sharing steps on the growth we've had to date with our premiumization strategy. But Sam, you can't replace 30% of box office with a premiumization strategy. So on each of the films we get the kind of numbers we've shared with you, we expect to continue to get the growth, but it's not going to offset the 30%. I think -- I hope that's answering your question.

Yes, that's helpful. And when are the next major property revals, I guess what percent of the property will you be revaluing this financial year?

It's Greg. Look, we revalued the main sort of chunk of the portfolio last year. There's a few that are still outstanding. But normally, we do -- previously, we did a 3-year cycle, whereas we think we'll move to a 2-year cycle. So it'll probably be June next year that we'll do the big -- again, the big chunk again for you.

Okay. And then last one, just on your hotel expansion strategy. I guess some of the recent acquisitions have been management agreements. What's the appetite to buy hotels? Or do you want to keep your capital for your main developments?

We would look to acquire hotels, and we're definitely doing that with Lylo as you can see, to grow our footprint in Australia and New Zealand, but off in international markets, we see that as management agreements or the like.

Your next question comes from Nicholas McGarrigle with Barrenjoey.

I see I just want to get a better sense of profitability expectations. You've given a number of guidance for Germany that was you expected to break even in the second half. And I guess box office there is already off to a really bad start and likely to get worse around the euro. But in Australia, I just can't see how you can take enough cost out to avoid that segment being close to breakeven in the second half. Can you give us a better sense of how that will be managed.

I can't give you a better sense of the more of the indicators we've given you, but we're probably a little more optimistic than you are with that shift and the initiatives that we have done.

But is it presumably you have to really flex the variable cost because you're obviously fixed overhead or as they are, but then edit is variable, but the other element is just the other variable costs. So is it a matter of reducing capacity closing cinemas for periods kind of really going hard on adjusting the network when things are quite?

Yes. I think, Nick, remember, on COVID, we were closed and we had 0 revenue. We had to reopen and we had better than breakeven models. We are much more agile than we were pre-COVID. So it is a number of those things. It's operating hours, it's flexing our casual workforce energy savings, you name it, like every single cost line we go through to try and find ways to help offset it. But as I've highlighted, we're saying box office could be off 30% subject to the appeal films in the second half. We can't make up for that, but we are definitely more confident in our ability to deliver a better EBITDA result with that impact than we would have been able to pre-COVID.

Yes. Okay. And then I guess when you look across the business, you had impacts from [indiscernible] wind, maybe there was some rain. There was some heat. There was strikes in the cinema and Thredbo division, you've got a lot of noncontrollable elements in the hotels, you've got a lot more predictability in asset backing. Is there any further thinking at the Board level about how to unlock that value for investors make it clear between the property -- the hotel portfolio and the cinema portfolio potentially separating the 2?

Look, we continue to evaluate the strategy. Right now, we are focused, as I've said, and I've probably reinforced a few times in this presentation that we see hotels is our growth priority. And we see plenty of opportunity in that segment, and that's what we're looking at. I'd like -- with the cinema segment, it's not strikes as a new thing. Strikes is an outcome of COVID. The studios made statements in COVID, which disrupted the creative community, which resulted in the strike. So it's another -- it's kind of a delayed COVID hangover. And that will recover, and we can already see that with the strong titles I alluded to just a little bit before. And Thredbo will be Thredbo, right? Except, I highlighted the yield improvements that we've been able to deliver. The new business model is going to deliver us some stunning results on good conditions. And we know that those good conditions will come. But it's just a variable business.

Okay. All right. I think in terms of maybe just the hotel segment to finish off with, just where your inbound businesses versus where it was pre-COVID in terms of how recovered do you think that segment is? And I guess, what kind of -- is that potentially pressure as that recovers, is that bringing RevPAR down or up, do you think -- sorry, ADR specifically?

Yes. We don't think it's -- we think it's recovering slowly. And we do point to airline capacity and pricing as a reason for that. So -- but it is recovering slowly, and it does come in at a lower rate. So it really is rate, which will come off a little bit as occupancy recovers, which gives us the RevPAR growth.

Your next question comes from Russell Gill with JPMorgan.

Just more from me. I was just wondering around what kind of full capacity for admissions looks like going forward, just as you mentioned before, also with the fewer better strategy, the closure of 12 cinemas, how would you think of admission numbers going forward?

Admissions are a factor of content, more than they are of seats. So we're reducing occupancies, but putting in a more premium seat, which enables us to charge a higher price. And we vary the -- and there's different seats and different pricing and different allocations to cinemas based on the demographic and location of that cinema. But the #1 driver of admissions is content. So that will always vary up and down. But clearly, we are reducing seats and increasing price to deliver a better outcome than having more seats at a lower price.

Your next question comes from Brian Han with Morningstar.

Jane, I understand Germans are crazy about soccer and Euro '24 is a big deal, but it is starting in June. So does 1 month have such a big impact on the whole second half? Or is it just that there's less flexibility to its cost base and labor?

Well, actually, if you look at the second half and you look at our lineup, a lot depends on June. So between June is a large -- is a big month because that's when -- that's the summer period when releases are made in domestic U.S. market. In Germany, -- we're expecting it to have a bigger impact because it is actually in Germany this year. And also, what's happened is the local film production, they avoid even releasing towards the -- in the June, July dates. So the great local content, which is a good contributor to German box office stops because they want to avoid having people choose to go out and watch games and be in the bars and it's -- and dine and be part of the celebrations, and they want to retain that box office. So we get the double whammy in that period in Germany by not having the local films as well as the Hollywood blockbusters. And also what the number that we've given you has adjusted for German government subsidies in the prior year. So there are a couple of things happening in there.

Your next question comes from Edward Woodgate with Jarden.

Just wanted to follow up on the question regarding how you manage the cost base of cinemas. So maybe just for our modeling might help if you could call out or give some color on the split between variable and fixed costs in that division now that you've made those changes through COVID?

Look, we don't disclose that level of detail. And you know what, even coming to a point of saying Soccer 30% impact on second half box office, that's going to be variable, right? Because we're all sitting here with great films on -- some great films on paper and gaps, and that's going to move. So the pointers we've given are the only point as we can give at this point.

And then just finally, was nontraditional content a reasonable contributor during the half. I mean I think some of the peers have been talking to Taylor Swift and Beyonce's films as quite a positive contributor. What have you seen there?

Exactly the same. I mean, look, our share of Taylor Swift was phenomenal with the IMAX screen. But they are still what we would call small films. So they're below 10 million Australian box office. So they all -- they definitely contribute, but they don't make up for kind of a 60 million, 70 million Australian box office title. So -- and yes. So our proportion of box offers coming from smaller films is increasing, and we're really delighted that there are more concerts and there are more films, as you will know from Amazon, et cetera, being released into cinemas. But at this point in time, there's not enough to offset a big blockbuster like we've outlined in this period.

Your next question comes from Nicholas McGarrigle with Barrenjoey.

Just a follow-up on the box office predictions. I mean in the past, you've avoided making hard and fast predictions on what you think the box office will do. What gives you kind of the confidence or the impetus to do that this half? And just to clarify, are you saying that 30% of the opportunity is gone because of the shift or you expect box office in aggregate for the 6 months to be down 30% on PCP.

Bit of both. And we're no more -- no one can give guidance on a film lineup because it's content. We get a great film that we think is going to be phenomenal. It's released in cinemas and the scripts bad. So it's all about the appeal. Why we've done at this time is, look, we're really aware that the Hollywood strikes would create more uncertainty to a variable business. So we're just trying to be a little more helpful to say, look, what we see today it looks a little like this. There are some external reference points that you can have a look. There's a company called Goa Analytics, which does a lot of box office production as titles come in, et cetera, and they have a low mid and high point. They're often wrong also because the studios are often wrong. They always intend to make a great film, but sometimes it just doesn't connect with audiences. So Nick, we're not any more confident. We're very realistic about how difficult it is for you and for everyone both in the cinema industry to truly predict box office, but we just wanted to be a little more helpful because of the strikes.

Yes. And I mean, you mentioned that predictive service, have you taken the low -- the middle of the high case, do you think, in terms of that 30%?

We've taken -- well, that changes every day. So we kind of have gone mid- to low because we bring in our film programmers, and we talk to studio -- we have a little more insight into the numbers than what Goa Analytics does.

Okay. And then do you think -- I mean, I saw in the half year, obviously, there was maybe some reduction in screens, but your revenue undergrew box office generally. Do you think that, that is potentially some shift in share? Or is this something that we're missing in that comparison of your revenue growth in Australia versus the box office?

It's -- it will be worth diving into that when we meet because we haven't had a big -- we haven't had a shift in share, not material shift to kind of say and the fact that we've closed 12 cinemas, I mean it's not a business we were chasing share. We're chasing profit. And our feel better is about making sure we've got the best locations where we can invest in them well and get great returns from them. But our share hasn't really moved. So maybe we could talk about that more when we meet.

Sure. It might be partly because spend per head didn't grow at the same rate as box office or something like that. And I think in terms of the owned portfolio of hotels, you mentioned that you've included Lylo in the mix and maybe Rydges brought down the RevPAR. Can you -- do you have kind of a sense on what your like-for-like RevPAR experience was in the half year on prior year just because obviously, we track the industry data and typically, you've outperformed the market, but that 1% number doesn't imply that, but potentially that's because of the different hotels in the mix. I just wanted to get some clarity on that underlying growth in RevPAR.

So underlying growth is around 2%. Adjusted for the ramp up of Melbourne, by the way. But that's just for Lylo.

Your next question comes from John O'Shea with Ord Minnett.

Yes. And sorry, I'm so late in the Q, I accidentally hung up, which won't surprise any of you, given my technical capabilities. Look, my first question is just going back to basics here on your guidance. Okay, you said second half down on PCP. So second half '23 was $23 million NPAT. So what you're telling me is that you think the second half '24 NPAT is going to be lower than that. Can you give us some sense of quantum or any further color on that? I guess that's the first question, I guess, cutting into the chase.

John, it's Greg. Look, we don't want to give you a number, obviously, but we're guiding the 30% in the box office level. But the EBITDA level, it's not 30%, but it's below that. So if between 0% and 30% an easier range for you, that's the range.

In terms of how much EBITDA will be down yes, the fine and all the rest, obviously, is uncontrollable in terms of your P&L anyway. The second question sort of follows on from some of the good questions that Nick was asking before, maybe after all I'll ask these questions, they'll probably lead into it. But just to remind me on the 30th of June valuation of independent valuations you took place, how much was included there for the potential value of the 2 George Street developments in the fair value?

There was no inclusion of the potential future developments and that value.

No inclusion. Okay. So if that sort of flows on to what Nick said, given all the [indiscernible] saying the uncertainty, the fact that the earnings haven't been able to return to pre-COVID and the fact that share price has frankly gone nowhere for quite a long time. The concept around carving out the hotel side and realizing that value, sure, maybe not now, but in sort of when conditions are more susceptible to that sort of scenario, why wouldn't that be given close consideration by the Board? Or is it being given close to consideration by the Board?

Yes, John, it is being considered by the Board. But I think you summarized it just by going well, you wouldn't look at it now given the conditions that the external conditions in the other markets.

Consider it. But by the time we get all the stuff organized, and it will be ready, it will be ready to go on the fine conditions normalize, to get that to the question.

Is that a question or a comment, John?

It's a question, I suppose.

I think, John, you would realize that every business is looking 3 years ahead and thinking what are the options always considering optionality and preparing for those options?

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Ms. Hastings for closing remarks.

Thank you all for joining, and I look forward to seeing those of you that have made appointments to come and see us.