Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
February 13, 2020
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Michael Schmidt
analystAll right. Good morning. My name is Michael Schmidt from the Guggenheim research team. I'm one of the biotech analysts at the firm, and it is my great pleasure to welcome the first presenting company this morning, Exelixis. With us today, we have Michael Morrissey, President and Chief Executive Officer. Michael, welcome, and thanks for joining us.
Michael Morrissey
executiveThanks, Michael. Great to here.
Michael Schmidt
analystBefore we get into Q&A, just give us a quick overview of where we stand today and what happened sort of over the last 6 months that got us to this point.
Michael Morrissey
executiveQuick overview? Okay. I'll need about 30 minutes for that. Yes. Anyway, I'll be making forward-looking statements today. So please see our SEC filings for a risk that we face in our business. So Exelixis stage oncology focused, biotech company. Our lead product is cabozantinib, 2 different brands. We get about $1 billion in sales -- in revenue last year in 2019. So obviously, pretty well established in both the renal and liver indications. Lots of activities going on right now in terms of label expansion, potentially across what we think will be about 12 different trials this year in terms of label-enabling trials. And a lot of efforts to rebuild our pipeline, to build a diversified offering across different modalities and different pathways and targets that we think we can push forward going forward. So...
Michael Schmidt
analystPerfect. Great. Thank you for that. Maybe just starting out with a couple of commercial questions. You did provide 2020 revenue guidance recently, including, I think you said $725 million to $775 million net product sales in 2020. Can you just give us a quick sense what assumptions are baked into guidance in terms of how you see market dynamics, especially in RCC shape up this year?
Michael Morrissey
executiveSure. Sure. So I think I'll start with answering that question, just putting 2020 into context. As I think you and everyone knows, we came out strong at JPMorgan in January, really reframing the business for investors in a way that we think was appropriate to kind of focus on the bigger picture of the company relative to what we're doing across a wide variety of different activities as opposed to just talking about scripts every Friday from IMS and IVR. So a part of that refocusing in terms of the overall picture on Exelixis was providing guidance. Our guidance for 2020 in terms of revenue guidance, I think, was very clear in terms of -- it was really a statement of the obvious, is that we're not going to grow the business unless we add indications, and that's a very important part of what we're going to see, hopefully, in 2020 and beyond in terms of where we hope to have 6 pivotal trials reading out this year, that could lead to 4 new indications next year. So our guidance for the year is conservative. First time we've done that. It's relatively flat year-over-year, but that just reflects additional indications coming online in 2020, when we expect that to really happen in 2021.
Michael Schmidt
analystAnd CABOMETYX sales in RCC have obviously been impacted by some increased competitive pressures here, especially the use of PD-1 and TKI combinations in frontline RCC. I guess how confident are you that market dynamics are -- have stabilized here now?
Michael Morrissey
executiveWell, I think as you've seen in the -- I always come back to scripts -- in the script data for the last quarter or so, the actual dynamics have stabilized pretty much in terms of what's happening in frontline. And it hasn't been a small competitive change. There have been some major, major advances in the space over the last 12, 18 months in terms of both IO/IO and IO/TKI combinations coming into first line, and really revolutionizing that level of treatment for those patients. So what we're seeing now is frontline more or less stabilized. There's probably, approximately 80-20 split between IO combinations and monotherapy TKIs frontline, that's been stable for the last quarter or so. The IO combinations are split more or less 50-50 between the IO/IO combinations and the IO/TKIs. We certainly have a lot of interest in moving into that space. And with 9ER set to read out in the first half of 2020, hopefully, with good data, we can reengage there.
Michael Schmidt
analystAnd then maybe just one question on CheckMate 9ER. I guess how do you think about the incremental additional opportunity for growth, should the trial succeed?
Michael Morrissey
executiveYes. Well, we see this as a very big opportunity. Certainly, cabozantinib has a strong label as a single agent across both first and second-line RCC. Only TKI to have survival benefits in the second line. Only TKI, again, as a single agent to beat SUTENT head-to-head in a large randomized Phase II trial. So we're pretty confident in the activity profile and its differentiation. And now we have to prove that it's going to work in combination with nivo in terms of this first-line population. If we can do that, our market research would suggest that we can gain back share, have the benefit of that long duration of treatment that you can see with these kinds of patients and based upon our Phase Ib data and be able to rebuild that first-line market for sure.
Michael Schmidt
analystAnd then just a follow-up. So that the trial was changed, and I think the interim analysis pushed out from late 2019. The fine line, as was pushed out from late 2019 to the first half of this year, can you just remind us what's behind that change in the trial?
Michael Morrissey
executiveWell, there have been a couple of -- couple of changes is probably too strong a word. There's been one modification of the SAP that allowed for basically more time to elapse to accrue more events for survival. Statement of the obvious here, obviously, having survival in your label is a good thing. We have that with both METEOR and second-line RCC and CELESTIAL and HCC. Certainly, those are strong messages to be able to market the drug in a compliant fashion with HCPs. I'd like to have that in a first-line setting in combination. Certainly, the 426 data has that. And to be competitive, we think we need that. So we certainly, in last summer, again, amended the SAP to just basically accrue more events to be able to increase the power for survival. The second quasi change, which really wasn't a change, was more of a change in messaging from BMS is that, they were guiding to have top-line data in early 2020 back in 2019. That was their message, and then they changed that in 2020 -- the first half of 2020. There's been no change in the actual details around getting to top-line results, just a change in messaging, per se. So that's more of a sematic issue in my mind.
Michael Schmidt
analystOkay. Great. So looking forward to that top-line announcement. And then you obviously have several other potential label extension opportunities, as you mentioned. We've seen some initial data recently from Bristol's CheckMate 040 trial in liver cancer at ASCO-GI. Maybe just remind us high levels of what are the takeaways from these results? And how should we think what potential read through to the ongoing COSMIC-312 study that you're doing with Roche?
Michael Morrissey
executiveYes, for sure. So I think, again, this year, as we talked about earlier in January, this will be a year where we get a lot done. We talk a lot more about data in terms of presentations in different kind of formats. And already this year, it's what, middle of February, and we've had 2 major showings, both in ASCO-GI and GU following JPMorgan. So we're off and running from the standpoint of being able to, I think, put our emerging data in context for what we've got in terms of label-enabling trials, in terms of the competition and in terms of, I think, pretty significant unmet medical need across different important tumor types. You talked about 040, that data at ASCO-GI, where we looked at both the doublet cabo/nivo and the triplet cabo/nivo/ipi in a mix of first- and second-line HCC patients. So with 70 patients cutting across 2 different dosing regimens in 2 different lines, it's a little bit complicated and convoluted because of just the way they did that trial. But I think there are some important take-home messages there. Number one, response rates were very, I think, encouraging. Maybe more importantly, with the disease control rate or DCRs for both regimens were in the 80% range. So for HCC, that I think is pretty notable. And our survival data with all the caveats of it being a single-arm, not a randomized study with a small number of patients looked encouraging as well. 21 plus or minus months for the doublet and not reached for the triplet. So looking, I think, very encouraging if the idea that: a, this is cabo plus and IO, the first data we had with those combinations in a mixed for second-line population. It's not cabo/atezo, that's what we're looking at in the 312 study. But I think it provides a pretty good framework for what we hope to see. And certainly, we're excited to be able to have that trial finish enrolling and readout later this year.
Michael Schmidt
analystAnd then maybe pending COSMIC-312 data. I guess how do you think about the incremental additional sales opportunity in frontline HCC? And especially, if you maybe think about some of the other combinations that are being used there, have results, for example, IMbrave150 among others.
Michael Morrissey
executiveYes. The IMbrave data is great. Certainly, again, kind of foundational data in doing what we've been talking about for the last couple of years now where HCC is a very large underserved opportunity. Unmet medical need is enormous here in terms of the number of patients that have liver cancer and the available therapies. So we've talked a lot about in the context of CELESTIAL, which is a second-line trial in that survival data, the importance of really helping to rebuild that market and the importance of IO and positive frontline data being able to draw patients, make that pie bigger, if you will, and then have a much longer duration of therapy. So we're excited about the IMbrave data and what that means. And when you think about bevacizumab plus atezo compared to what we have in 312, which is cabo plus atezo, again, we like that kind of apples-to-orange comparison and what that could mean for cabo, per se. In our view, it's a big population in the U.S. It's about 20,000 patients in the first-line setting, what that could grow to be in the 2025 time frame. We've done some -- again some very conservative modeling, where we think that's easily a $600 million, $700 million opportunity at relatively low market share at about 20%. So certainly, like any other oncology indication, there's lots of competition. So we're not afraid of that. We're not really worried about that, per se. We have to generate the right data and see where that takes us and then be prepared to, as we have previously with both renal and liver, worked very hard to then capture share and bring the best therapy as possible to patients.
Michael Schmidt
analystOkay. Looking forward to that in the second half. And then today, you're actually presenting Phase I data from a study combining cabo with TECENTRIQ in prostate cancer. And we already know that this combination had a 32% response rate, which was very impressive and 8 months' duration, which, again, I think compares very well to other options in this setting. But maybe help us understand a little bit more how this data compares and maybe in that prostate cancer treatment setting. And we obviously know you have enlarged the trial with the goal to potentially submit for accelerated approval. Just help us understand your FDA discussions and feedback that you've received from the regulatory agency on the requirements for filing.
Michael Morrissey
executiveOkay. There's about 4 questions there, so I'll just kind of expand upon that. So yes, we're really excited about the emerging data in metastatic CRPC that's coming out today at ASCO-GU. We had a -- the abstract came out on Monday. We had a press release highlighting the top-line data. There's a long history here of Exelixis and cabo in prostate cancer. I think we've spent a lot of time over the years since the comments read out learning about what some of that data actually meant. That was a trial that failed, looking at overall survival. And understanding the different nuances and different components of that trial, that we could have done better. So we're a learning organization. We've taken the time to dissect all the different pieces and ask the hard questions to understand, really asking the question really is cabo active in that space and how do we maximize the opportunity and the value there. So we've taken a step back and really asked instead of really any further -- going for the home run that we did with cabo, looking at prostate cancer in terms of very specific components of that disease. And it's a complicated disease in terms of the hormonal nature that drives that when those tumors become refractory, the different hormonal agents, chemotherapeutic agents, radiotherapy agents, even IO-type agents that can be brought to bear there. So we've, I think, done a good job of going back, but also looking forward, just understanding where the market is going as the different NHTs, novel hormonal therapies move up in terms of the castration sensitive as well as the M0 nonmetastatic population. So we've done that. The first look is part of the COSMIC-021 trial, and that's a large basket trial looking at 12-plus different tumor types and 24 different cohorts. For cohort 6, which is for CRPC, we really wanted to make that whole question as simple as possible by taking out the controversy and the drama around the bone scan responses that we looked at very carefully back in 2012 and 2013 and 2014. And simply ask the question, what does cabo and atezo do? What does that combination do in patients with RECIST 1.1 measurable disease? So for both selection of patients and then response assessment, we want to use a -- and we have used a very standard noncontroversial, both clinically and regulatorily friendly readout of RECIST. So there's no -- there's really no debate on the viability and the validity of the results that we're talking about this week. The good news is that we see good activity, good tolerability. We're looking in a population that is -- in terms of an entry criteria, that has a single or more NHT, having been either refractory or progressed on by radiographic means, that these patients can have chemotherapy as part of their castration sensitive disease history and about 27%, 28% of those patients actually had docetaxel for that. And the good news is that across the different subtypes of populations of those patients, those that got chemotherapy for their CSPC, those that had one hormonal agents or 2 hormonal agents, all had a similar response rate in that 30-plus or minus percent range with good duration of response. So we're excited about what that means. Again, as you talked about, if you look at some of the competitive data, certainly, chemotherapy with all of the baggage it brings from a tox point of view, can have activity in that kind of same benchmark as well as some of the early IO agents, which are usually much lower, either as a single agent or in combination. So we're excited about that. We've -- as you mentioned, we've increased the actual enrollment size with 2 different cohorts of 50, the second being in January. We've added single-agent cohorts to really demonstrate the contribution of components, which is already kind of out there in terms of both single-agent cabo and atezo, and I think we're very aligned with the agency about what success looks like from the standpoint of a subparty's filings. So our job now is to get all that work done and if I have enough follow-up to feel confident in the data, and then move forward with that package.
Michael Schmidt
analystAnd I guess, when can we expect to see the data from the full registration study?
Michael Morrissey
executiveWe're guiding to have all that data pulled together in a filing in 2021.
Michael Schmidt
analystOkay. Great. And then, I guess, there was a little bit of investor debate around the fact that not all patients, as you mentioned, did receive prior docetaxel in the study. I guess I think there's a perception that patients need to be exposed to all available prior therapies to justify an accelerated filing timeline. Can you just comment a little bit more on what the FDA has got to do with -- on this front?
Michael Morrissey
executiveYes. So it's our clear focus to really provide a treatment option that delays chemotherapy, doesn't replace chemotherapy, doesn't complete with chemotherapy, but actually delays the chemotherapy. And that's a major unmet medical need for patients with late-stage prostate cancer. And I think even some of the data within the demographics of the 021 cohort 6 data that we're talking about this week, underscores that, right? You get 44 patients enrolled in what we're presenting on. Half of those patients came on the study after a single NHT. The other half of those patients came on after a second NHT. So that -- those second half patients, right? Those 22 patients that got 2 NHTs had a choice after they progressed on their first NHT to either get chemo or get a second NHT. And they all basically, from the data, said, "I'll take the second NHT and delay chemo to see how the second NHT does." Then when those patients progressed again, they had the same choice, chemo or clinical trial. And they again chose the clinical trial. So I think it really underscores the fact that you've got elderly gentleman, 75, 80 years old, who had surgery and/or radiation. They've been on ADT for probably 5, 10-plus years. They've had one NHT. Their disease is progressing, and they're choosing to delay the use of chemotherapy. So I think that's a very important goal. And it's one that we really want to reinforce as we go forward in that we think this is an important opportunity for patients as well for investigators and doctors to be able to bring other therapies -- other options to their patients. We're certainly very interested in looking post ADT, post chemo. Cohort 24 actually is targeting that specific population. And it's enrolled quickly. And again, we have the ability to look at that, at the individual cohort, like we did with cohort 6, and add more patients as we think is appropriate. But I think the bottom line is that the notion, at least from our point of view, that you have to exhaust every available therapy before thinking about a Subpart H is just misguided. If you look across the last 40 compounds that have been approved for Subpart H filings in oncology over the last 3 or 4 years, that's just simply not the case and not the case here as well.
Michael Schmidt
analystOkay. Then you also announced the expansion of the lung cancer cohort in the signal finding study, around the same time actually as the initial prostate cancer expansion in COSMIC-021. Could you just remind us of the status of this cohort and potential next steps in lung cancer for cabo plus TECENTRIQ?
Michael Morrissey
executiveFor sure. So that's the other cohort that we're certainly very excited in, both from the standpoint of expansion within 021, but also as part of our collaboration now -- clinical collaboration now with Roche/Genentech where we will run free pivotal trials in prostate, lung and renal and basically share the costs of those trials. And then our half, both Ipsen and Takeda have the ability to opt into those and further draw down our half. So I like the idea of doing these kinds of large, global, expensive pivotal trials with partners and collaborators to be able to share the costs, so then we can do more and more, both within cabo and then outside of that development plan. In terms of lung, again, there's a very large unmet medical need with all the patients going on to IO frontline, either IO by itself or IO/chemo or sequencing chemo and IO. So again, those are patients who are coming off that either with primary refractive disease or after progression with some level of benefit is large and really focuses us and others around the importance of being able to bring new modalities, single agents combinations into that space. So I would say cohort 7 is just the nonsmall cell. Cohort is about a half step behind where prostate is. We're certainly very interested in pushing this forward. We have a single agent cabo cohort from the summer as well. Again, asking the question around the contribution of components. So that's moving forward aggressively, and with a pivotal trial planned with Genentech, we're certainly ready to move forward there in a very broad sense to be able to profile that further.
Michael Schmidt
analystOkay. Great. And then maybe a couple of more questions on -- maybe one on IP, which appears to be a concern among investors. So you did receive an ANDA filing last year for CABOMETYX, obviously, challenging the polymorph patent, which expires in 2030, 4 years roughly after the competition of matter that you have on the drug. I guess what gives you confidence in the strength of this patent data?
Michael Morrissey
executiveAgain, we talked about this a lot on the last earnings call and at JPMorgan. We're not going to litigate this publicly. It's not surprising that a generic company would come after a compound that's generating $1 billion a year in revenue. The system is built that way. We have very strong data, very strong IP as well as a great team of both internal and external experts who are going to help us litigate this with the ANDA filer, and we're very confident in that. So I won't say more than that, except to say that we're investing in a way that I think is indicative of our confidence based upon all the data that we've got around the polymorphs and in our ability to maneuver there going forward. So we have a lot of confidence. Obviously, we're going to put a stake in the ground here and defend our position very, very aggressively. And I'll let that action go forward without me commenting on that further.
Michael Schmidt
analystOkay. And then as you mentioned earlier, you have been reinvesting some of the cash that was into the early-stage pipeline, the internal pipeline, and you did recently announce that you will initiate expansion cohort for XL092, your next-gen multi-kinase inhibitor. Maybe just briefly comment on how this molecule maybe compares to CABOMETYX? And how it might be positioned longer term relative to the CABOMETYX franchise?
Michael Morrissey
executiveYes, for sure. So we -- again, we have a pretty extensive effort right now across different modalities, targets, pathways and cell types within our internal and external network of drug discovery. We have a long history there and certainly have a lot of confidence in our ability to make good molecules, make timely molecules that we think can address important biology and large unmet medical needs. 092 is the first compound out of that effort. We have a decade or more of experience with cabo clinically. We have, I think, a deep appreciation of its strengths and perceived weaknesses that we have now addressed, both chemically as well as biologically to what we think is to make a better next-gen molecule. So that's been profiled now in the clinic since the beginning of last year, and we're moving into combinations. We have ultimate flexibility from all the data we're getting with 021 across the different cohorts as well as, say, even within something like prostate cancer, that's very complex in terms of the different components of that disease where we could slot in 092, where appropriate, based upon kind of a longer-term vision for how to make that molecule work. So stay tuned on the actual details. We haven't talked about that molecule publicly yet, in terms of its biology, it's pharmacology, it's clinical activity and experience yet. We'll be doing some of that later this year, where we start to roll out, again, more information and more data on the compound.
Michael Schmidt
analystGreat. So with that, we'll have to wrap up. But looking forward to a data-rich year ....
Michael Morrissey
executiveThat's the plan, yes, for sure...
Michael Schmidt
analystOn CABOMETYX and other 3 NDA filings as well.
Michael Morrissey
executiveOkay.
Michael Schmidt
analystThank you, Michael.
Michael Morrissey
executiveThank you.
Read the full transcript via the API
You're viewing the first half of this call. Get the complete Exelixis, Inc. transcript — plus 248,000+ transcripts from 12,000+ companies, speaker segments, AI summaries and full-text search — through the EarningsCalls.dev API.
Get the API View API docs →This call discussed
For developers and AI pipelines
Programmatic access to Exelixis, Inc. earnings transcripts and 248,000+ others is available through the
EarningsCalls.dev REST API. Plans from $24.99/month — full transcripts, speaker segments,
full-text search, and the recently-added /api/v1/transcripts/recent polling endpoint for ETL pipelines.