Fasadgruppen Group AB (publ) (FG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, and welcome to the presentation of Fasadgruppen's interim report for January-September and the third quarter of 2023. With us here in the room, we have Martin Jacobsson, CEO, who will take you through the presentation. And then we also have Casper Tamm, CFO; and myself, Adrian Westman, who will be joining in the Q&A session. With that said, please, Martin, take it away.

Thank you, Adrian, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to this Q3 presentation. So all in all, it is a mixed quarter here in the third quarter. On the negative side, we see a tougher competition, especially in the Stockholm area impacting our margins, where we have taken actions. Actions taken are redundancy consultations, but it's too early to tell how many that will lead to a termination. We've also been working with our subcontractor cost base in order to prioritize our own personnel. On the positive side, we see a continued strong demand for energy efficiency measures, which is proven by our organic growth in our order backlog of some 5%. I will get back to that later in the presentation. And also on a very positive note, we see the strong cash flow continuing, which is linked to our improved working capital. And I'm very proud of the organization for improving the cash flow in this way. So our measures that we have taken is really giving effect here. Moving on to the sales. We see a quite stable development sales-wise. We had some 2% negative organic growth, but it was a mix between the regions. We saw Norway and Finland grow quite nicely organically, but Sweden and Denmark were quite on the negative side. Noteworthy here is that we saw continued strong growth for our method SmartFront, which has tripled during the January-September part of the year compared to the same period last year. All in all, there was a total growth of 4.2% in the quarter where acquisitions helped by 4.5% and FX 1.7%. Looking at the adjusted EBITDA, we came in at a margin at 9.4% compared to 11.5%. This is clearly the negative here in the report, as I mentioned, but it's been mainly due to the tougher competition side here, especially in the Stockholm area, and also, our company is focusing on new build are quite negatively affected. As I mentioned, we have taken several actions here, and we have a notice of redundancies, but this is nothing unusual, you could say, and the entrepreneurs out there in our subsidiaries are doing that -- this on a standard basis, you could say. However, we see that this -- there's a bit more redundancy consultations than usual. And as I mentioned in the beginning here, we're also working with our flexible cost base. Remember here that we have roughly half of the workforce from subcontractors where we will now prioritize our own personnel going forward. Moving on to the order backlog. We saw quite nice growth here organically year-over-year, as I mentioned at the start. And to differentiate our various countries here, we see that there was a quite flat development in Norway and a decreasing organic order backlog in Sweden. However, both Denmark and Finland grew quite nicely in the quarter. But all in all, in all geographies, we saw continued strong demand for energy efficiency measures. So the renovation side is holding up very well. All in all, the total growth here of the order backlog was up 7.5%, helped by FX, 1.2% and acquisitions, 1.1%. Moving on to the cash flow. As I mentioned here at the start, it's improving. So on the third quarter here, we had an operating cash flow of roughly SEK 145 million compared to SEK 125 million last year, and where the working capital improved by some SEK 17.5 million compared to a negative roughly SEK 30 million in the same period last year. This gives a cash conversion of roughly 109% on the last 12 months basis, which is a very strong indicator and above our financial targets. So I'm very glad to see that the measures that we have taken to improve the cash flows are giving effect. Moving on to look at the 9-month period here. We can zoom out and take a look at how the year has gone so far. All in all, we have an organic growth of 5% and a margin of 8.6% compared to 9.7% last year. Stands out here is the profit for the period, which is clearly weaker than last year, mainly affected by higher financial costs due to the higher interest rates. This also affects the earnings per share, as you can see here by the presentation, coming in at SEK 2.94 compared to SEK 4.26 last year. Noteworthy is also that Sweden is just a tad bit larger than half of Fasadgruppen compared to, let's say, at the IPO level when it's more like 70% to 80%. So that has clearly come down, giving us a differentiating piece of the business here where we see larger parts taken by the other Nordic countries in Sweden. Moving on, looking at our financial capacity and net debt. We initiated a new credit facility, as you may remember here during the summer, of a total facility of SEK 2.7 billion. Of that, roughly SEK 1.050 billion is undrawn. And if we look at our net debt to adjusted EBITDA level, it's roughly at 2.5x on a non-pro forma basis, but on a pro forma basis, is roughly 2.4x. Noteworthy here is, as you can see that our interest rate has clearly gone up to roughly 4.6% in the 9-month period compared to 1.7% in the same period last year. But all else equal, looking at our headroom to our leverage covenant, that would mean some firepower of roughly SEK 600 million for further acquisitions. Yes. If we take a look at M&A development, we have several dialogues progressing, and we are targeting high-quality companies that will be margin accretive. We have seen a somewhat positive development in our multiples going further south. And as of last of September, we had 4 signed letters of intent with various companies throughout the Nordic region. Looking at the final last acquisitions. We have 4 here on the slide, I mentioned Weldmatic in the Q2 report, as you may remember so I will not delve into that. I will take a look at the 3, Rosborg, Teknova and Surface, all each here in the coming slides. But in general, you could say that all of these acquisitions are expected to be margin and earnings accretive. Taking a look then at Rosborg Entreprenad. It's a company that we found internally, a niche company situated in the Stockholm area, specialized in facades, roofs and windows; had revenues of some SEK 60 million here in the financial year ending in '23, which was mostly related to renovation. And if we take a look at their customer base, it's a wide variety of customers. Our current subsidiaries have actually been using Rosborg as a subcontractor in the past in a very efficient manner, and also have a lot of private and public property owners as well as large construction companies as their customers. We welcome Rosborg to the Fasadgruppen family. Taking a look at Teknova. That was a bankruptcy estate that one of our subsidiaries, Alnova, was acquired here in October. In '22, they had revenues of some SEK 118 million. But the acquisition here includes the whole production facility located in Vadstena. So the acquisition is mainly due to strength in Alnova's production capacity and our market exposure. So we're also pleased to welcome Teknova into our family. Moving on to Surface. It's a total supplier of scaffolding and weather protection with a market exposure situated in the middle and southwest of Sweden. We've had a dialogue with this company for more than a year. So we are very pleased to announce this acquisition. And in these markets, we've had quite a low presence before. So I'm very pleased to see that we can increase our market exposure in these areas. Surface had revenues of some SEK 114 million here in '22. About 1/3 of that revenue came from the industrial sector. So this gives us a new niche in the Southwest and Central Sweden and large opportunities to create more value for -- with our existing subsidiaries. Then taking a look at our latest development in the European regulations. We've seen a breakthrough here related to energy renovations. And with that said, we can also see that there is a more flexible approach here from the European Union, where each member state must set some requirements for reduced energy in the existing residential property in terms of the entire stock. So what they're saying is that 55% of the energy savings should be achieved by improving the energy efficiency of the worst-performing buildings. But you can mention here that the clearest trend is that by 2050, all buildings will need to be net zero, and that is clearly a positive, a long-term positive for our kind of services here, which we will take full advantage of in the coming years. On a note here that is the public housing Sweden estimates that at least a doubling in renovation rates will cost roughly SEK 550 billion in coming years. With that said, I also want to introduce our new organization, taking effect from the 1st of November here this year, and that is done in order to increase our efficiency. So what we have done is that we have introduced a new Chief Operating Officer in form of Johan Claesson. The focus from this operational part here of the company will be profitability, efficiency and cash flow. That's the main focus. So what that means is that the support functions that will enhance our subsidiaries will continue to strengthen our subsidiaries in terms of the operations team led by Johan. However, the P&L responsibility will be, as always, in our local businesses. That is the strength of Fasadgruppen and always will be. At the core of our business is the entrepreneurship. It has been that from day 1, and we will continue to do that. But with this organization, we will enhance these local businesses even further. So I'm very pleased to announce our new structure here, our new organization scheme and especially pleased to welcome Johan Claesson as the new Chief Operating Officer. That said, some concluding remarks here from my side before we open up for questions. As I mentioned initially, we saw a tougher competition in the Stockholm area, impacting our margins, but rest assured, actions are taken. We see continued strong demand for energy efficiency measures. As an example of that, SmartFront tripled its sales, and the organic order backlog grew by 5%. We continue to deliver strong cash flow, which provides a foundation for further value creation. The new organization is in place and ready to go in order to strengthen our efficiency and even more profitable operations going forward. And as of yesterday, we announced the decision to initiate a buyback program. That was made in order to finance future acquisitions and to optimize our capital structure. With that said, I think we open up for questions.

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Max Bacco from SEB. Please go ahead.

Yes. First off, well done on the cash flow and nice to see the order book and sales holding up quite well. I mean during the quarter and the start of Q4, have you seen any changes to demand or order take -- order intake? Or have it been quite stable, would you say?

I mean, quite stable over the quarter. We see -- I mean, we have many ongoing discussions with customers here. Going forward, I would say, quite stable all in all. And that's -- as I mentioned, in terms of the redundancies, it's tough to tell how many of that will be affected due to that we see that it's quite nice orders in the pipeline, so to speak. So that's on the positive side, so to speak, in terms of the order backlog. But all in all, quite stable, I would say.

Okay. Perfect. And just a quick question on SmartFront. Is it possible for you to share the sales in SmartFront on a rolling 12-month basis just to indicate the magnitude of it?

Yes, roughly. It's roughly SEK 200 million.

Okay. Perfect. And then on profitability then, which was on the weaker side here in the quarter. Could you perhaps give some flavor on how it developed in the different regions? I suppose that it was down quite a lot in Sweden and Denmark. But did you see an improvement year-over-year in Norway and Finland?

Yes. Yes. Good analysis there, Max, that especially Sweden, that's affected. I mean it's quite stable in Denmark, but clearly positive in both Norway and in Finland.

Okay. Perfect. And I mean this -- I mean Q3 should be your seasonally strongest quarter in terms of profitability. And here in the quarter, you did 9.4%. So I mean the margin target of above 10% EBITDA margin seems quite far off in current market environment. Do you agree on that? .

We mentioned that it's over a business cycle, Max, remember that?

Yes, yes.

But of course, I mean, we aim at our target, and that's what we're aiming for. But of course, it is a tougher market. That's without a doubt. So of course, we will adapt to that.

Okay. That's perfect. And on the price pressure that you see in the market, especially in Stockholm then, do you believe that we need to see a better new build market for it is going ahead?

Yes, good question. I mean, that would clearly be positive, net positive for all the other players in this business, I would say. But yes, I would say it would be a positive, but it's not needed. So it should be -- could be done either with our -- I mean, we have the renovation focus, as we mentioned a lot of times here, Max, of course. And we hope that the customers see that what those services that we provide are superior. And in order for us to show that we will need to prove that for the customers, continue to prove that for customers. And then, I mean, in the end, the profitability will come, I'm sure of that.

Yes. Okay. And the last one on the cash flow. I mean, really nice fairly third quarter, but obviously, Q4 is the seasonally strongest cash flow quarter. Should we expect a normal Q4 in terms of cash flow? Or do you see still some room to improve net working capital further?

It's a bit too early to tell. But I mean, the actions that we have taken, they were mainly done from -- during '23. So Q4 '22, there were not that many measures taken in that sense that we've done in '23. So it could be maybe a bit more there.

The next question comes from Sofia Sörling from Carnegie.

Yes. Let's see, I have a couple of questions. So I want to start with regarding your margins. So could you give some more details on this, why the margins are that negatively affected? And is it due to more or less the low utilization rate? And also if you could give some color on your current order backlog? And if we should expect that this also includes perhaps lower margin work? That's my first question.

Okay. So first of all, regarding the margins, as we mentioned here, it's clearly Sweden that's mainly affected and especially then the Stockholm area, where we've seen the competition increase a lot. And that is clearly having a negative effect on the margins affecting the profitability, where our subsidiaries are, of course, working as hard as possible to increase the margins there. But there are a lot of moves in place trying to enter our mainly renovation markets, that's just the simple truth. That's affecting the profitability, no doubt about it. And on the other question there regarding the order backlog, giving some more flavor. I mean the largest majority is in terms of renovation projects and inside of a large order in Denmark during the third -- second and third quarter, having a large impact in the Copenhagen area. We have announced that as a press release. That is very clear positive. And I would say, in general, that the order backlog is holding up fairly well. But that is -- I mean, in details, you could mention that the 5% organic order backlog increase. So that all else equal, during this year, it's improved compared to last year, I would say, is a sign of strength in these tougher times. But Denmark especially stands out as a positive element.

Okay. Great. And what is your view on the risk of meeting a similar challenging situation in the other countries such as these intensified competition in Sweden?

Yes, yes. Of course, there's always a risk, I would say. But in terms of the various regions, there are different business cycles, I would say. So I would say that Sweden is affected first in that sense. And then we like to have these various regions in our business so that we can differentiate throughout the business cycle. But noteworthy also that Sweden is the market where we have the most exposure to new production. So that's also hampering the margins here. That's noteworthy.

Okay. Great. And then yes, so maybe just on your market expectation then into 2024. So what would you -- if you can give some more details on your view, what type of end markets will support demand for your services? And who will make these investments, would you say, I guess only done within renovation market.

Yes, yes. I mean it's quite early to tell, but we see -- I mean looking at the incoming proposals from customers, that is from all of the -- our customer base, I would say. But we've seen an increase from defense military spending, and we have seen an increase from the municipalities and also from, I would say, private and public real estate owners that have no problem with their debt situation, I would say. It's also noteworthy that new build still at 6. It's not that it's over and done. But that continues, especially -- I mean, housing is clearly down, but there are so many other parts where we can assist the customer within the services of new build. That will also have an effect in '24.

[Operator Instructions] There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any written questions or closing remarks.

Okay. Then thank you very much, operator, and thank you, everyone, listening in for this Q3 results presentation. We look forward to see you again at our Q4 presentation here in February. Thank you.