Fenix Resources Limited (4ER.F) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome to today's Fenix Investor Webinar. My name is Mick Colliss, and it's my pleasure to be your host. Last Thursday, which was the 11th of December 2025 Fenix published an ASX announcement under the banner Fenix 3-Year Production Plan and with the headline: Fenix to boost Weld Range production. Now before I welcome and then hand over to Fenix Executive Chairman, John Welborn, who will discuss the announcement and answer some questions, just a quick bit of housekeeping. This is a live webinar being held by our Automic's online meeting platform, which lets shareholders and investors take part in the webinar. [Operator Instructions] And we'll get to the questions after John has had his say. If we do get a lot of similar questions on a particular topic, well, obviously, we won't ask them all. And if we do run out of time, John has indicated, he will answer them in due course via e-mail. So as I said, just feel free to submit your questions at any time. But to get us started, it is now my pleasure to welcome and hand over to Fenix' Executive Chairman, John Welborn for some introductory comments on the 3-year production plan announcement. John, over to you.

Thanks very much, Mick. And I'm delighted again to be updating shareholders and interested market participants on Fenix' 3-year plan. Before I do so, though, I'll just acknowledge the appalling darkness events of yesterday in Bondi and share our sympathy with the Jewish community and the many other people who have been directly affected by what is just a shocking and appalling event. And I hope that some light can come from that moment of darkness, although it's difficult to see how. Moving on to the subject today is our 3-year plan, which was a very exciting release last Thursday, and I'm delighted to update the market on it. It's the first time that Fenix has been able to provide such significant market guidance, and it demonstrates the maturity in our business as we've developed now and target even higher production in future. Our main achievement in 2025 was to get to 4 million tonnes per annum. And we've now guided for the next 3 years to show that, that we are going to eclipse again. We're having a great quarter. We're on track to do our first million-tonne quarter heading up to December, demonstrating that run rate. And the heart of the 3-year plan that we've announced is we've upgraded our current year guidance for the year ended 30 June 2026, and we now expect to mine, haul and ship 4.2 million to 4.8 million tonnes. FOB Geraldton C1 cash costs of between AUD 70 and AUD 80. So we're demonstrating consistent cost control and just edging that production up, which is very pleasing following the successful development of W11. In the year -- the next year, the year ended 30 June 2027, FY '27, we're going to increase production to between 4.7 million tonnes and 5.3 million tonnes. And then in FY '28, we're increasing again to between 5.4 million tonnes and 6 million tonnes of material. So our target over the next 3 years is the top end is to achieve a 6 million tonne per annum run rate. And that represents a transition from our current mining at Iron Ridge and at Shine and the new mine at W11. Over that 3-year period, we'll completely exhaust the existing reserves at Iron Ridge. We'll complete Stage 1 at Shine, and we'll move into the Weld Range Project with both an expansion of our mining at W11 and the mining of the very closely located W10 orebody effectively next door. It's a high confidence plan. It's built on our successful track record of incremental growth. And pleasingly, we're going to be able to fully fund the 3-year plan from our operational cash flows and the existing finance facilities in place. It's an organic growth plan. It's consistent with our model to expand the Weld Range. And 100% of the approximately 15 million tonnes of ore that we're scheduled to mine over the 3-year plan comes from either existing ore reserves or from measured and indicated mineral resources. So that's very pleasing. It's effectively a low-risk plan that we have high confidence in. Given our existing mining and logistics assets, we've also forecasted the sustaining capital required to deliver the 3-year plan. It's relatively modest. It's estimated to be between $35 million and $45 million. And that represents the fact that the hard work has been done with the haul road that we originally built to access Iron Ridge. We've now added to that an approximately 20-kilometer connecting haul road [indiscernible]. And those roads will fully allow us to develop W11 and W10 and increase the key focus of the 3-year plan. Beyond the 3-year plan, we commenced feasibility studies aimed at the significant expansion of the Weld Range Project up towards 10 million tonnes per annum, which is a goal that we committed to as part of the agreement with Baowu Steel. And we're putting the final touches on a scoping study, which is the first stage of that feasibility study program, which is due to be completed in current month and will outline [indiscernible] a 3-year plan [indiscernible] that's the topic of today's conversation. The 3-year plan is a very important incremental step to our planned [ 6 million ] tonnes. And that's obviously part of our strong collaboration with Baowu Steel both on the Weld Range and then looking further into the future and other opportunities in the Mid-West. So very excited about the future. Very pleased with the feedback I've received from shareholders and markets on the clarity of the 3-year plan and its value to Fenix. So Mick, very happy to answer questions.

Yes, fantastic. Thanks, A couple of come through. [Operator Instructions] As usual, we'll start with just some questions from the Broker Research Analysts who do cover Fenix. Well, firstly from David Brennan at Petra Capital. He says, "can John give some insights into the current fleet capacity and the number of additional trucks and CapEx required to get to the 6 million tonnes per annum run rate in FY '28?"

Yes, I can. Thanks, Mick. So currently, we've got about 70 trucks in the fleet, and we expect ultimately to have a maximum of 90 over the 3-year plan. So Craig Mitchell, Fellow Executive Director of Fenix and the Founder and CEO of Newhaul and his team, both in Perth and Geraldton, have done a remarkable job in scaling up haulage capacity from originally 1.5 million tonnes per annum to about over 4 million tonnes. And ultimately, that fleet expansion will allow us to do what the [indiscernible] plan. So looking forward to that. And that's part of, obviously, a key part of the expansion plan.

And a related question about the capacity at Geraldton says, what is the current loading capacity available to Fenix? And is anything required CapEx-wise to get to the target 6 million tonne per annum run rate and potentially in time, the 10 million tonnes per annum or more?

The current capacity that we believe we have at Geraldton is well north of 10 million tonnes per annum, and there's very limited capital required. So we obviously amalgamated the Sinosteel storage shed, Shed 13 with storage Shed 4 and 5 that we acquired of Mount Gibson. And we own and operate the only side tipping truck unloader that accesses those facilities. In their best year when they're running Extension Hill in Tallering Peak, Mount Gibson produced about 8 million tonnes per annum, purely from Sheds 4 and 5. So we know that the capacity of berth 5, where we load Panamax boats is well north of 10 million tonnes per annum. And we're very confident that our existing facilities [indiscernible] 1 million tonnes per annum. So there's no significant CapEx required to get 6 million and then ultimately, 10 million. That will be a key focus scoping study. Within the sustaining capital, we are making some improvements to the loading facilities, and that's around efficiency and cost [indiscernible].

Just one from one of the shareholders, [ Donald Payne ], says, why has the 10 million tonne per annum not occurred?

Well, it's going to occur. So we're very big believers, Mick, in incremental development. So the journey of 1,000 miles starts with a simple step. So we've gone from 1.5 million tonnes to 4 million tonnes. This 3-year plan will see us to go from 4 million to a target 6 million. And then the shareholders should stay tuned for the scoping study, which will identify the time line and capital and very importantly, the projected cost savings that we see by ultimately, our ambition to develop a 10 million tonne per annum. So my response will be don't worry, it's coming. Stay tuned.

So Donald, I hope that answers your question. So I'll get back to James Williamson from Bell Potter. He's got a series of questions. So we're going to ask that you try to respond with shortest answers so we can get through them all. It could be the Christmas miracle. So firstly, he says, can you elaborate on what the $35 million to $45 million of sustaining capital covers and the quantum that could be excluded from this for the additional mobile equipment?

Yes, I can. So we specifically identified that the sustaining capital to -- is the capital that you see essential to deliver the 3-year plan over FY '26, FY '27, FY '28. And we identified that excludes the capital needs to expand [indiscernible]. Now given where our fleets at roughly $20 million of [indiscernible], but we had existing finance facility in place that funds that capital expenditure [indiscernible] expansion. So we [ haven't included that ] capital. The $35 million to $45 million consists of the incremental mining capital, probably between $15 and $20 million which is opening up W10 predominantly. And then some improvements in the port and a range of other opportunities that we're looking at, including expanding our laboratory capacities and incremental improvements on our logistics train. So it's a number of different items make up the balance of that.

He says, how long do you expect Beebyn-W11 and W10 to sustain 6 million tonnes per annum production before other deposits need to be brought online?

A good question, James. So obviously, we're [indiscernible] over the next 3 years. And if we're successful, we'll be operating at 6 million tonnes a year at the end of FY '28. The scoping study that we're preparing will answer that question in terms of what our growth ambitions are after that. The question implies that we would sustain production at 6 million. And the good news is that at the end of FY '28 and if we've achieved 6 million tonne run rate, our ability to stay there effectively is answered by the 290 million tonne resource base [indiscernible] at the Weld Range. At that point, we will have significant reserves that are going to visit both W11 and W10 on even a number of other components and we [indiscernible] and so the short answer [indiscernible]. I mentioned when we signed Sinosteel [indiscernible]. This is a game changer [indiscernible]. We now have decades of production in front of us. And the exciting thing about having established this [indiscernible] important assets and infrastructure [indiscernible] mining is that, that level of [indiscernible] sustained at that level. However, as Doug asked earlier, our intention is not to sustain at 6 million. We're going to push it in.

And then James continues, are there any drill programs required over the Weld Range resource or are you confident with 80% of the MRE already in measured and indicated that reserve conversion won't require further drilling ahead of the feasibility study?

No, it won't. [indiscernible] We look the -- we've got the great advantage of the significant investment that's been made by Sinosteel and therefore the various companies that the own deposits that we now control in the Weld Range. Our history of Iron Ridge and our history at W11, again that's the very limited exploration required to open up these ore bodies.

Second last one from James. He says, can you provide an update on the transshipment trials, and how success could improve shipping costs?

Well, we've conducted the first transshipping trial ever completed at Geraldton earlier this year. It was a success. We've got an enormous amount of data. There are 2 opportunities that we're looking at, James. One is topping up our existing boats. We're limited by the channel draft exiting Geraldton. So although we load 60,000 tonnes, most of the boats that we send could take up to 70,000 tonnes. The first opportunity is looking at topping up those boats outside the channel in the transshipment opportunity. The longer-term opportunity is loading capesize vessels, so 180,000 tonnes or more. And at the moment, our shipping cost is around USD 16. The plans of our products on Geraldton to China, there's probably a AUD 10 save on our all-in costs if [indiscernible]. So that gives you a reason to the mine looking at and along with a lot of others [indiscernible]

And then finally from James Williamson at Bell Potter is what opportunities have you identified for further collaboration with [ Baowu ] in the future outside of the current Weld Range RTM.

Well, the Weld Range is pretty exciting. It often provides an opportunity for 10 million tonne per annum project for more than a decade. But the FEED opportunity, James, is Jack Hills. So Sinosteel investments region and their previous feasibility studies around the Oakajee Port development and Oakajee Rail development was designed to have 15 million tonne per annum from the Weld Range Project, and that was going to lead into a 30 million or 40 million tonne per annum from Jack Hills. Jack Hills is a 4 billion tonne per annum magnetite iron ore deposit, very high quality. It's 100 kilometers north of the Weld Range. And so the logistics opportunity that we're developing lends itself to be part of the solution for Jack Hills. And that is a key focus of the international Baowu Steel Group.

So thanks, James. Thanks, John. Now Michael Bentley from MST. He's got a couple of questions starting with, can you please give us the split of tonnages that make up the 4.4 million to 4.8 million tonne guidance by asset?

So I think David (sic) [ Michael ] is asking about FY '26. The midpoint there is 4.5 million tonnes. And the really easy answer for your model, David, is to just model 1.5 million from each. We expect to mine about 1.5 million tonnes before we close Iron Ridge. Shine has about 1.4 million to 1.5 million tonnes left in Stage 1, depending on it might be a bit more than that if we choose to market some lower-grade material. And then currently, in this financial year, very pleasingly, we've rapidly developed W11 to its initial run rate of 1.5 million tonnes over that year.

Michael Bentley again asks regarding your targeted 6 million tonne target by FY '28. Can you please tell us where you see the key risk areas? Is it in obtaining sufficient trucks, getting the drivers, developing the mines or some other area?

Good question, Michael. The reality is, is that we have demonstrated the -- our ability to deliver these tonnes. The transition from 1 mine doing 1.5 to 3 mines doing currently more 4 million tonne per annum has already been achieved. The transition of consolidated that level of production at Weld Range is actually [indiscernible] mines [indiscernible]. Transitioning to W11, W10 will actually [indiscernible] the environment. So the first thing I'd say we're actually, as I said earlier, this is a very high complex plan in our ability to deliver. We have identified that we need to get some final [indiscernible] successful [indiscernible] process for Iron Ridge is a greenfields project and the rapid approval process for W10 -- W11, sorry, as a greenfields project. W10 [indiscernible] brownfield implementing development, that would be the key time line risk area of focus on [indiscernible] and are progressing those approvals already. And I'm confident that the 3-year plan we've identified developing track records of [indiscernible] will be [indiscernible].

And Michael says, do you see the potential to deliver the 6 million tonnes prior to your target date?

Well, I think it's an ambitious plan. We got high confidence in it. Obviously, our ability to achieve up targets has demonstrated to be reasonable. We'll obviously be doing everything we can to accelerate them. However, at this stage -- and I suppose the opportunity to [indiscernible] guided [indiscernible] FY '26 3-year plan slightly up abate that and improve it. Whether we can further improve on the 3-year plan, we will obviously be working to that. But at this stage, the 3-year plan represents what we believe is achievable.

And he says, how is the approval process for the Weld Range expansion progressing? Do you see any risks to timing there?

It's progressing very well. There's significant [indiscernible] approval [indiscernible] establish W11 are not replicated in the incremental approval in [indiscernible]. So I'm very pleased with the cooperation we have the managing the [ title ] group. We work very, very closely with them. And again, all I can say is we're very confident in our ability to progress the improvements as outlined in the 3-year plan.

Michael was on a bit of a roll. He says regarding the decision not to try and extend the Iron Ridge mine life, do you see the potential to revisit that in the future? Or are the heritage issues too great?

The Iron Ridge is obviously a fabulous ore body, and we were very successful in significantly expanding what was originally a very small 10 million tonne per annum resource and slightly smaller reserve and added a significant amount of high-grade mineralization to the mineral resource estimate and then said that we would study how much of that we could convert to reserve. Obviously, part of the 3-year plan demonstrates that we see greater opportunity to transition to W11 and W10, and there's a number of reasons there. The most important one is the one identified in the announcement, which is our respect for heritage areas. And the answer to the question is, of course, there is opportunity to convert some of that material into reserve, and it does represent a future opportunity. However, it's not just the heritage concerns. Obviously, the mineralization that we identified was predominantly at depth. And therefore, it has a higher strip ratio, higher cost economics, and there are also safety factors around the stickiness of the wall that would be required and a whole lot of other factors. So pleasingly, our ability to look at better economic mineable resources nearby at W11 and W10, have allowed us at this stage not to progress any further with the studies required and the mining approvals that would be required to further exploit the high-grade resources at Iron Ridge. We're now focused on completing that mine. There's -- obviously, it's the picture that people might be familiar if you've watched more than one of these webinars, which is behind me. It is our flagship project. We will be very, very proud of our ability over the next 6 months or so to complete this mine from a mining perspective. It's been a very successful, very safe operation. It's also forged a very strong relationship of trust with the Wajarri Yamaji people, and that's very important. So yes, there is more resources there. Yes, it's possible that we may revisit them. But we would only do so in collaboration and with the approval of the relative native title groups. And more importantly, just to be very clear, there are better economic resources for us to convert into reserve. We have a game-changing and vast 300 million tonne resource base to now work with and we're looking for lower strip ratio, safe, easy, unheritage constrained resources. And the good news is we've got plenty of them to look at, which means that it will be some time until someone turns their mind to the deeper resources at Iron Ridge that we previously identified.

Good news. Michael continues, do you see the potential of Shine Phase 2 as potential to go beyond your 6 million tonnes in 2028, i.e., developed concurrently?

Yes, there are opportunities for us to boost production beyond the 3-year plan. And we're always looking at growth opportunities. Stage 2 at Shine is an interesting opportunity. There are 3 stages of the ore body. We started with a 15 million tonne resource, of which 10 million tonnes is hematite and 5 million tonnes is magnetite. It's a Mount Gibson project. They explored and initially developed it. We've seen the Extension Hill Mine where Mount Gibson Mine 50 million tonnes of hematite successfully transitioned to a magnetite resource base. So again, Shine represents a future opportunity. However, the 3-year plan makes it really clear what we're focused on. The highest value opportunities for us. And remembering that 100% of our logistics chain is going to be utilized, transporting 4 million, 4.5 million, 5 million, 5.5 million and ultimately up to 6 million tonnes a year of iron ore from the Weld Range, and that's the best value opportunity that we can see for Fenix. The good news is that opportunities like Stage 2 at Shine and other opportunities represent additional growth opportunities that we'll be looking to unlock.

Michael continues, are you planning to own a mine at Beebyn? Is that still an option?

It's definitely an option. Every miner looks at value opportunities. Fenix is obviously very successful in controlling as much of our logistics integrated supply chain as we possibly can. We operate a port business, Newhaul Port Logistics. I believe we're the best bulk haulage business in the country in Fenix' wholly owned Newhaul Road Logistics business. And we have a mining business, West Mine. And at the moment, Big Yellow doing a good job us at Shine. And MACA, our contractor at Iron Ridge and at W11. And while those contractors are doing well, one of the things we're looking at doing is a transition to owner miner. And again, that's something that will be the subject that has some coverage in our feasibility studies.

We're nearly done with Michael. He says you have not given forecast for costs from beyond 2026. Is it fair to say you expect them to go down?

Well, I like your optimism, Michael. If anyone who works at Fenix will know that my expectation is that we will always be able to drive our costs and build efficiencies. However, the 3-year plan, we've maintained our cost guidance for the current financial year. And we haven't guided for the second and third year for the main reason that would be very unusual to do given the vagaries of the drivers of costs. However, we have indicated that at this stage, we see no reason why our costs should significantly change over that period of time. And importantly, the business we run will stay the same over that period from a cost period as far as we can forecast. The really significant change that Michael, I suppose, alluding to and our future enthusiasm about building a lower cost business is the focus of the scoping study and the feasibility studies. So the opportunities within the 10 million tonne a year operation in relation to a shorter haulage distance more efficient mining, centralized crushing and screening and efficiencies of the port and ultimately transshipment, those opportunities, which will drive significant cost changes to our business stay tuned for the scoping study and ultimately, the feasibility study. Over the 3-year period, though, I think we've been conservative and very clear about what our expectations are in relation to our business. The good news is, is that today, the spot price continues to maintain a level above USD 105 a tonne. It's a great time to be mining with an FOB cost in Geraldton of between AUD 70 and AUD 80. It represents a significant margin in our business. This is a quarter where we will produce more than 1 million tonnes over the quarter at a great margin. So Fenix is cranking.

And before we get to some questions from the investors on the portal, Michael asked for a breakdown of the key items, making up the $35 million to $45 million in capital, but you've already responded to that from James. So can you elaborate further on what you see as the biggest risk of CapEx increase?

I'm very confident in the limited capital that we've identified in mining. So I said it was in the range of $15 million to $20 million as part of that $35 million to $45 million sustaining capital. And I think the context of that would be to look at the original feasibility study for Iron Ridge, which identified $15 million of capital, and the more recent feasibility study on W11 which was ultimately a total pre- and post-production capital of $25 million. In both cases, the majority of that capital requirement to build and establish Iron Ridge and build and establish W11 was the construction of private haul roads that we have successfully built. So the actual mining capital in building the Iron Ridge mine behind me and building the very successful W11 mine we're now operating is consistent with a number of the capital that we've identified will be required to deliver the 3-year plan, which is predominantly the establishment of the W10 mine. The other items are improvement opportunities at the port and incremental improvement opportunities in our haulage network. And I don't see any risk of significant extra capital required. I have pointed out that it doesn't include the fleet expansion capital, which we use finance facilities for. It also doesn't include some other value opportunities. We're doing a housing project in Geraldton, and there are other investment opportunities that we've identified. But the risk to the 3-year plan, we're very confident in that sustaining capital guide.

All right. So we'll move into some of the questions from the investors. [Operator Instructions] So [ Jen Piscopo ] says, will there be any rehabilitation costs associated with the closures at Iron Ridge and Shine mines?

Yes, there is rehabilitation obligations. We put in best in a staged rehab approach wherever we can. At Shine, obviously, we'll still be evaluating Stage 2 of that mine. So a big completion of Stage 1, pending a decision on Stage 2, that mine will presumably go into care and maintenance rather than aggressive rehab. At Iron Ridge similarly, we still have a significant ore base, and we'll have to decide as to what item of rehabilitation we accelerate and what we delay. However, Iron Ridge is obviously part of our broader Weld Range project. And so we're active in the region and we'll be [indiscernible].

And just on the subject of Iron Ridge, [ Donald Payne ] says, when will Iron Ridge close?

Well, we've identified a close towards the end at the current financial year. We'll actually process a [ material ] of Iron Ridge for to FY '27. So the short answer, Donald, will be as quickly as we can, but we're looking to complete mine but mainly through efficiency purposes. But the current reserve will be fully exploited from a mining perspective before the completion of FY '26. And that mine material will be on our ROM pad and we'll be processing into FY '27 as part of the 3-year plan.

[ Ramsey Taylor ] says, with planned capital requirements to increase capacity will impact -- will that impact current dividend projections?

Well, the dividend policy remains in place. Just to remind anyone who's not aware, the Fenix Board is committed to the payment of a fully franked final dividend, subject to the availability of franking credits, which we've got plenty and subject to the forward capital demands of the business. I've mentioned that the sustaining capital required over the 3 years is manageable from our cash flows and existing cash reserves. And there is no impact on the dividend policy by the 3-year plan.

[ David Bilby ] says, given the pleasing growth trajectory of the business, do you plan to expand the governance capacity of your Board to support operational performance and future growth?

We've got a very committed and stable Board structure, Executive Directors, Craig Mitchell and myself. We're joined by a regional founding director of the company, Garry Plowright, one of the original vendors of the Iron Ridge Project and Shannon Coates. And we are looking at Board renewal and Board expansion. We graduated from a small company. We have grand plans, and we can expect to see some growth in the Board over the next 12 months.

So final two questions, both from [ Donald Payne ], how old is the current transport fleet? And when are they replaced, mileage or age?

It's a good question for Craig Mitchell, and my understanding is obviously some of the older fleet we've already replaced. And during periods of time where we are expanding the fleet, we do engine rebuilds and hang on to trucks. But none of our trucks would be more than 3 years old without either being replaced or having had a major rebuild. So anyone in the Mid-West would recognize our bright blue shiny Newhaul Road trains to me, they all are very new. And there is -- we've recently expanded our depot at Geraldton in the industrial area there. And there have been excellent team there do a great job making sure that those trucks are always in excellent condition. The trailers have a life of at least 20 years. But again, they're all rebuilt over a 2-year period. My understanding is that that's done on a kilometer basis rather than a time basis. But we are very consistent with the number of kilometers we do per piece of gear because it's an incredibly high-tech and well-regulated transport network. And I'm confident in Craig and his team's ability to keep that fleet in tiptop condition.

Donald says, "what are the handling costs using the port infrastructure/ship loader?"

Well, look, if you were going to break down -- if you took a midpoint of our [indiscernible] guidance, $35 million and people are looking for a general idea. I always guide that it's roughly, very roughly, $30 mining, $30 road haulage and $15 per port. So that gives a rough idea as to what our costs are. The $15 per port would include more than half of that roughly would be Mid West Port Authority charges. So the fee that we pay the owner of report on Western Australian state government for access and [indiscernible] services and other facilities [indiscernible]. The other costs are [indiscernible], which are in loading, storage and outloader [indiscernible] storage facility.

Three more just ducked in. So if anyone come in, we'll get those another time. But just for the three that have jumped in, [ Jen Piscopo ] says, are there any results of the hydrogen/diesel trial which can be announced to the market?

Thanks for your question, Jen. Really exciting project, but we will at Fenix are working on along with our partner Warradarge Energy. And that is built upon a program in New Zealand, which is successful in trial a hybrid hydrogen diesel fuel in very similar trucks to the fleet that Fenix are operating with a view to the carbon charges that we will be subject to as well as our commitment to environmental management. We are going to conduct a trial of that hybrid hydrogen diesel fuel in some of our trucks. That trial hasn't started yet, Jen. So stay tuned for the results of that trial.

Second last question of the morning, [ Peter Parker ] says, will Simandou mines in Africa have a major effect on the iron ore price?

Simandou has been well modeled now for 10 years. They've successfully loaded 1 boat. They are planned to ramp up that mine over the next 36 months. It's a [indiscernible] the market -- the iron ore market is very sophisticated. I think that the inclusion of that material is one of the reasons why there's been a very strong bearish forecast on iron ore for years and years. It's also the delay in that project and the ongoing delay is one of the reasons why every single bulk commodity forecast on the planet has got it wrong and being proven to be conservative on their iron ore forecast over the last 3 years. Fenix isn't saying that they're going to continue to get it wrong. But today, everyone's long-term forecast is either probably around USD 90. The spot price is $105. Simandou is the -- impact of Simandou is well known. And my own view is it's likely [indiscernible] rather than cause any problems for Fenix.

And the final question to [ Fred Poskie ], he says, can you give an update on the project with Athena Resources and Green Iron?

Thanks for the question, Fred. Peter Jones, the CEO and MD of Athena is doing a great job in looking the exciting opportunities there is. Athena is a very high-quality magnetite project in the Mid-West. Fenix owns 40% [indiscernible] of the company. Stay tuned for more information directly from Athena on the development plans. In relation with Green Iron, Fenix is actively looking at those opportunities. State government of Western Australia are very supportive. Every single iron ore miner in Australia is interested in product retention value [indiscernible] going downstream. What I can say is that Fenix' model is to be incremental and to look to be a leader by quickly and in a low capital environment looking to take advantage of market conditions. We did that with the mine behind us at Iron Ridge. We're doing that -- we did that at Shine. We're doing that in the Weld Range. And anything that we invest in, whether it's Athena or ultimately, the partnership that Mid-West Green Iron represents between Athena, Fenix and Warradarge Energy will follow a similar business plan. Quick to cash flow, low capital intensity and huge value creation.

All right. So thanks to all those people who did ask questions. John, any closing comments from you?

My closing comments would be the focus of Fenix over the next 3 years is now 100% crystal clear. We are going to successfully complete the Iron Ridge mine. We're going to successfully complete Stage 1 at Shine. And [indiscernible] keep from those. It's a great point of pride at Fenix that we tell people what we're going to do and then we do it. And that's not just pre-production capital. It's not just production year-by-year at Iron Ridge. Go back to the original feasibility study, go back to the reserve that we published, we will successfully mine 100% of that reserve over the life of the mine, and then we'll successfully close it. The 3-year plan is clear. Iron Ridge completes, Shine Stage 1 completes, and we transitioned to an accelerated production base at W11 and a new mine at W10. That gives us the opportunity of footprint to go to 10 million tonnes per annum. Whatever the iron ore price you plug in, whether you're a bull or whether you're very, very bearish on iron ore, Fenix is going to generate a significant amount of cash flow over the next 3 years, and that will springboard us into a pathway to a 10 million tonne per annum business. If the numbers that will be thrown out by Fenix in that project are incredibly exciting, it's a great value opportunity for Fenix. We're very focused on it. We look forward to delivering it.

Fantastic. All good news. Well, look, that concludes today's webinar. So thanks, John, for your time. Thanks to everyone for tuning in. I hope all have a very merry Christmas and a safe and happy and profitable new year.

Thanks, Mick.