First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

July 29, 2026

TSX CA Materials Metals and Mining earnings 57 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Good morning, and welcome, everyone, to the First Quantum Minerals Second Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Bonita To, Director, Investor Relations and Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Bonita To

executive
#2

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today to discuss our second quarter results. During the call, we will be making forward-looking statements, and as such, I encourage you to read the cautionary notes that accompany this presentation, our MD&A and the related news release. As a reminder, the presentation is available on our website and that all dollar references are in U.S. dollars, unless otherwise noted. On today's call are Tristan Pascall, our Chief Executive Officer; Ryan MacWilliam, our Chief Financial Officer; and Rudi Badenhorst, our Chief Operating Officer. And with that, I will turn the call over to Tristan for opening remarks.

Tristan Pascall

executive
#3

Thank you, Bonita, and thank you, everybody, for joining us on the call today. It's been a very busy half -- the first half of the year for First Quantum and the broader markets. So I'm pleased to have this opportunity to discuss these updates alongside our second quarter results. During the second quarter, we continued to deliver steady operations, and it was pleasing that the S3 circuit at Kansanshi continue to operate above expectations, which Rudi will discuss later in the call. We remain well positioned for further production in the second half of the year with continued solid performance from S3, debottlenecking work at Sentinel and the processing of stockpiled ore at Cobre Panama. With our hedging program concluded, as Ryan will discuss later, we are once again fully exposed to spot copper prices. Alongside stronger production, this will position the company for improved free cash flow generation at current copper prices. We remain well positioned in terms of our cash flow, liquidity and balance sheet to cope with ongoing market volatility, even as we continue our focus on cost management across the business. At Cobre Panama, we continue to work on the stockpile processing program during the quarter, with an acute focus on safety, equipment integrity and operational stability. This measured approach allowed for the successful recommissioning of 1 of the sites 3 milling [indiscernible] in May and the production of first concentrate in June, which is earlier than our third quarter target. I'm very pleased with performance, and I would like to thank the team at site, including the approximate 1,000 skilled Panamanian who have rejoined or newly joined Cobre Panama. This achievement reflects their hard work and the effectiveness of the Preservation Safety and Management Program, maintained over the past several years that enables a high level of readiness and reliability across the operation. Following the successful recommissioning, the focus was on operational stabilization, and I'm pleased to report that Train 3 achieved stable operations and a total of 2.1 million tonnes of ore was processed through the second quarter to produce approximately 3,200 tonnes of Copper in concentrate. Stockpile processing through Train 3 has performed well with both mechanical and operational performance, tracking within expectations. Cobre Panama now has approximately 3,000 people on site, and we have restarted procurement amongst local Panamanian suppliers. Our activities to date continue to provide confidence in the team and in the asset. Environmental stewardship remains a core priority and the stockpile processing will mitigate environmental and operational risks associated with the prolonged on-site storage of mineralized material. Through quarter 2, the remaining unit Train, Train 2, along with the regrind and column areas were undergoing inspection repairs and preventative maintenance to support the next phase of the stockpile processing program. So far, indications are that the extent of the repairs are similar to Train 3 and the other concentrate common areas, respectively. Subsequent to the quarter end, processing was successfully swapped over from Milling Train 3 to Milling Train 2 as part of the maintenance cycling strategy. The Power Station and Port continue to operate well, and we expect our first concentrate shipment in August. Concentrate growth will be lower, while we continue inspection, repair and preventive maintenance of the regrind and columns area of the Cobre Panama process plant. Due to the global shortage, there is strong demand for the concentrate, and additionally, at the [indiscernible] processing rates and spot copper prices, we expect free cash flow from Cobre Panama to be neutral to positive. Moving forward, we will remain focused on maintaining this conservative and measured approach in order to ensure the highest quality operations. We have an estimated 38 million tonnes of mineralized ore containing approximately 70,000 tonnes recoverable Copper. We anticipate that we have sufficient stockpile to support around 12 months of processing at current rates. Also in the quarter, the comprehensive audit of Cobre Panama was published and is now available to the public on the “MiAmbiente” website. The audit process span approximately 8 months and involves the preparation and submission of thousands of documents, participation in interviews and support from numerous site inspections and fuel [indiscernible]. This was undoubtedly the most extensive and rigorous independent review ever undertaken at Cobre Panama and one of the most thorough independent audits of any mine globally. The audit concluded that Cobre Panama is a professionally managed and technically sound operation with a high degree of regulatory compliance, achieving an overall score of 87.73 out of 100. Importantly, the report found that the project's core systems, infrastructure controls and management processes are functioning effectively. [indiscernible] comprehensively of this nature, the audit also identified areas with further improvements can be made. 361 out of 372 commitments were fulfilled with 7 areas being in partial compliance, but with no areas fundamentally absent Improvements required in these areas are related primarily to long-term reforestation, biodiversity and restoration programs that are correctable and not considered acute environmental incidents. We welcome these finding as continuous improvement has always been a fundamental part of how we operate and review the recommendations as a valuable opportunity to further strengthen an already robust operation. The audit is now being reviewed by a high-level industrial commission led by the Ministers of Commerce and Industry, Economy and Finance and the Environment. As communicated publicly by government, the Ministry of Commission is undertaking a comprehensive technical evaluation of the audit findings and will provide an informed recommendation to the mine to the presidents in due course. In the meantime, we remain focused on the safe execution of the stockpile processing program and we remain ready to engage constructively with the Government of Panama to achieve a fair and durable resolution for the mine. Additionally, we continue our efforts in workforce and community initiatives in Panama. It is pleasing to share that our recruitment initiatives to support the hiring staff for preservation activities over 50% participation from communities in the mine's local area of influence and the participation rate from women was approximately 17%. Our educational program added over 500 students during the quarter and now supports over 4,000 students in Panama. While our entrepreneurial program graduated over 700 individuals during same period, taking the total to over 1,000 graduates to date. We have also launched a new Environmental Education Initiative which is expected to reach more than 50,000 students in schools across Panama. Moving over to Zambia. I want to thank the team at Kansanshi for cohosting the 2026 International [indiscernible] Competition. This was a significant achievement not only for Kansanshi and First Quantum, but also for Zambia, as it's the first time when African nation has hosted discipline. The competition brought together 22 teams from 10 countries across 4 continents and tested participants under real world emergency response scenarios. We are proud to have played a role in bringing the global mining community together in Zambia towards improving safety performance across our industry. Continuing at Zambia, I am proud to share that 2026 marks a significant milestone for First Quantum as we celebrate 30 years of partnership investments and shared growth with the people of Zambia. Over the past 3 decades, we have invested not only in world-class mining operations, but also in the people, communities, local suppliers and local businesses, helping to create lasting value and opportunities across the country. Our success is closely linked to the success of the communities in which we operate and that belief continues to guide our approach today. The recent example is the handover of infrastructure and learning materials valued at more than ZK 12.9 million to several schools [indiscernible] helping create better learning environments and opportunities for young people. Ultimately, digital talent, dedication and ambition of Zambian that power our operations and position us for the future. As we celebrate our 30-year milestone, we remain committed to operating safely, responsibly and transparently and continue to be a long-term partner in Zambia developments. Thank you, and I will now pass the call to Rudi to discuss our operational results.

David Charles

analyst
#4

Thank you, Tristan. Higher production at Sentinel and the commencement of stockpile ore processing at Cobre Panama led to a 4% quarter-over-quarter increase for total copper production of just over 100,000 tonnes in the second quarter. Copper sales totaled 93,300 tonnes, approximately 7,000 tonnes below production due to timing differences between sales and production. At Kansanshi, copper production in the quarter was 44,000 tonnes, down approximately 1,000 tonnes from the previous quarter due to lower throughput as the S3 and mixed circuits underwent planned maintenance during the period. The S3 Concentrator, however, delivered the highest monthly throughput in May since commissioning and operated above design capacity throughout the second quarter. This performance was driven by increased operating time, strong utilization and milling rates, which supported the processing of long-term lower grade stockpiles. S3 continues to take a higher proportion of feed from surface stockpiles, which are [indiscernible] and lower grade than freshly mined ore. Copper production guidance for 2026 remains unchanged at 175,000 tonnes to 205,000 tonnes, whilst gold production guidance is 110,000 ounces to 220,000 ounces. This will be supported by continued strong performance at S3. Additionally, while ore will continue to be predominantly sourced from low-grade stockpiles, fresh ore from the Southeast Dome that is harder and high-end grade will be gradually introduced in the S3 circuit during the second half of this year. Also at Kansanshi, we opportunistically sold surplus sulfuric acid during the quarter, through proactive management of higher acid consuming oxide ore and acid inventories, we generated surplus asset available for third-party sales totaling approximately 36,000 tonnes and expect the sales to continue into the third quarter. At Sentinel, copper production was 50,000 tonnes, an increase of 5,000 tonnes from the previous quarter. This increase was attributed to higher grades and recoveries offset by lower throughput. A result of the planned 5-day total plant shutdown at Trident that was completed in June. We continue to effectively manage through bolt fatigue with Ball Mill 2 and expect to resolve the issue permanently during the annual planned maintenance downtime in 2027 with the replacement of a section of the [indiscernible] and discharge end. Production guidance for 2026 remains unchanged at 190,000 tonnes to 220,000 tonnes of copper. Production is weighted towards the second half of the year with improving mill throughput and an improvement in grades as mining progresses within Stage 2 of the pit. Enterprise produced just over 11,000 tonnes of nickel, a 9% decrease from the previous quarter, mainly due to the aforementioned total plant shutdown. Production items for 2026 has maintained a 30,000 tonnes to 40,000 tonnes of contained nickel. We are continuing to focus on improving ore quality and great control through ongoing RC drilling while also refining mining practices, including reducing the ore bench heights to minimize dilution and enhance recovery. All grades at Enterprise are expected to be lower in the third quarter but in line with the mine plan. The development of permanent ramps is underway to improve mining productivity and the pit dewatering Stage Tank Pad is scheduled to be handed over to our projects team in early July, after which mining activities will focus on increasing the ore footprint through lowering current cutbacks, some development and South Wall mining and preparation for the upcoming rainy season. Lastly, looking at Guelb. Copper production was 2,000 tonnes and gold production was 6,300 ounces, which includes output from reprocessed tailings through the CIL plant. Production guidance for 2026 remains proximately 7,000 tonnes of copper and 30,000 ounces to 40,000 ounces of gold. The operation will continue processing sulfide copper ore plus gold containing tailings through the CIL plant with intermittent stockpiled oxide gold ore treatment to support the most favorable transition to full oxide ore gold production. In summary, as Tristan noted, we delivered consistent operations in the second quarter and we have set up well to deliver stronger copper production in the second half of the year. Thank you. And with that, I will turn the call over to Ryan for the financial review.

Ryan MacWilliam

executive
#5

Thank you, Rudi. The copper price remained strong in the second quarter, trading between $5.50 and $6.40 per pound. This was due to tariff-related stockpiling in the U.S., a tight copper concentrate market, and sulfuric acid supply concern. Continued strong demand meant global warehouse inventories climbed significantly towards the end of the quarter with a 62% drop in [indiscernible] deliverable inventories quarter-over-quarter. Turning to our financial performance. Revenue increased by 8% to $1.5 billion, driven by higher copper prices and increased sales. As Rudi noted, we opportunistically sold our surplus sulfuric acid, contributing around $12 million in revenue. EBITDA increased by 23% to $400 million, a stronger revenue more than offset the impact of higher fuel and contracted costs. It is also worth noting that EBITDA was impacted by hedge losses and PS&M costs at Cobre Panama. Both headwinds fall away for the second half of the year with the hedge program now complete, and Cobre Panama stockpile processing underway with first shipments expected in August. Excluding Cobre Panama, our copper C1 costs were $0.03 lower quarter-over-quarter, benefiting from improved Zambian production, which was partly offset by higher fuel costs and reduced gold [indiscernible] credits. Including Cobre Panama, C1 cash costs were $0.03 higher with a $0.06 impact relating to elevated production costs from stockpile processing. As expected, the increase in fuel prices was a headwind on costs, along with the weakening gold price. Diesel prices through the quarter averaged $1.59 per liter in contrast to the $0.91 per liter paid in Q1. With the 2- to 3-month lag in fuel deliveries, elevated fuel prices are expected to continue flowing through our cost base in the third quarter. While Q2 saw pockets of improved diesel availability and some easing from peak prices, recent developments in Russia and the Middle East have reintroduced volatility in global fuel markets. As a result of this unpredictability, we have left our C1 cash cost guidance unchanged. However, as disclosed last quarter, should current fuel, kwacha and gold prices persist, there is a roughly $0.25 upside risk to our cost guidance. Capital guidance, which already includes Cobre Panama stockpile processing also remains unchanged. We've incurred around $60 million for the Cobre Panama processing program to date. This is within the $250 million of required spend previously guided to. In the rest of the business, capital spending broadly aligned with expectations at the start of the year. Our hedge program for both copper and gold is now complete. We incurred hedge losses of $159 million for copper and $5 million for gold during the quarter. This program was put in place to provide greater cash flow certainty through the S3 project delivery period. With strategic hedge book now fully settled, we have no further hedges in place, giving us full exposure to spot copper and gold prices going forward. As Tristan noted, our stronger production expected in the second half of the year, with that stronger production, we're all -- we are well set up for free cash flow generation at current copper prices. On the balance sheet, we are pleased to close out the Cobre Las Cruces and Cayeli transactions during the quarter. These sales reflect our disciplined approach to portfolio management and focus on our core strategic priorities. They delivered a gain on disposal of $271 million, with the net proceeds deployed towards short-term debt. Net debt increased by $123 million to $5.4 billion. This reflected planned CapEx, tax interest outflows, partly offset by EBITDA generation and favorable working capital movements. We closed the quarter with a strong liquidity of about $2 billion, including $771 million in cash and $1.25 billion of undrawn revolver capacity. Overall, it was a solid financial quarter, with strong execution, driving resilient margins. We're maintaining a disciplined approach to capital management, keeping balance sheet strength, liquidity and a continued focus on de-leveraging at the center of how we make decisions. Combined with our full spot copper price exposure, this positions us well to navigate market volatility while continuing to advance our strategic priorities. With that, I'll hand the call back to Tristan.

Tristan Pascall

executive
#6

Thank you, Ryan. On to our development projects. During the quarter, we were very pleased to publish a technical report for our La Granja project in Peru. The report provided an updated mineral resource containing an estimated 23 million tonnes of copper, 600 million ounces of silver and 6.7 million ounces of gold, which positions the project as the second largest greenfield copper resource globally. The report also included geological and metallurgical work that indicated a significant portion of the [indiscernible] mineralization is structurally controlled and associated with higher grade copper. Based on work completed to date, we believe [indiscernible] can be effectively managed by segregation, blending and through commercial offtake arrangements. And that, as a result, the mine can develop for the large-scale open-pit operation with a conventional floating flow sheet. It is still early days for La Granja. However, the technical report underscores the project's potential to become Tier 1 multi-generational mining operation. Our focus is now on advancing the permitting process and our key priority includes the progression of baseline environmental and social studies continued stakeholder engagement and preparation for the detailed environmental impact assessment. At Taca Taca, we continue to progress work to derisk the project. This includes the mining ESIA, which is expected later this year following completion of the public consultation process. In parallel, ongoing water supply assessments are evaluating incremental supply opportunities that could provide greater flexibility. We are also finalizing our application under Argentina Regime Investment Incentive application and tend to submit it once the ESIA approval and required water use concessions have been secured. As I noted earlier, it has been a busy first half of the year with our operations and development projects. However, our priorities remain very clear. First and foremost, the priority is to progress towards a durable resolution at Cobre Panama; secondly, maintaining safe, leading and productive performance across our operations. And thirdly, strengthening the balance sheet to ensure the company is well positioned to support future growth in a disciplined manner. With that, operator, I am happy to open the line for questions, please.

Operator

operator
#7

[Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question from Orest Wowkodaw at Scotia Bank.

Orest Wowkodaw

analyst
#8

Hoping you could provide us an update on Cobre Panama. And I'm wondering specifically if there's any expectation on when you would expect the government in terms of the next steps of their audit review in terms of conclusion moving forward? And then secondly, I'm also curious if you can comment on the media report recently that spoke about Panama setting up a state mining company that was looking for interest in the mine.

Tristan Pascall

executive
#9

Orest, thanks for the question. Sure, in terms of timing of the audit process and the recommendations coming out of the Ministerial Commission, our engagement with the government of Panama has been focused on the preservation and safety management plans and more recently on the stockpile processing programs. The Ministerial Commission that was announced on the 14th of July, has established a regular schedule of meetings that made public statements on their goal to produce results as soon as possible, and the recommendations around that into [indiscernible] need to look through the technical report and the substantial amount of effort involved in the thousands of pages there, but also associated economic, environmental and legal implications of the audit reports and around the mine. Orest, we remain ready to engage as the process advances and the government -- but it will be the government that determines the next steps and time line. We don't have a clear time line as yet regarding the decision-making process, but we know that they're very focused on this topic. And now with all the facts in hand from the audit, we think they are moving into a decision-making phase. -- what for us and while we await next steps from government, our focus is on executing the stockpile processing program safely and responsibly, preserving the environments of the site, working with the communities around and ensuring the integrity of the assets at Cobre Panama. In terms of your second question around, yes, we saw the article from Reuters. As you know, Orest, we don't comment on media speculation. As I said, the government of Panama have completed that audit and they formed the Ministerial Commission to review those results, and make recommendations on the future of the mine. But presently, has been clear that the [indiscernible] regarding the mine will be communicated by the government once that review is complete and not before. And until then, I would suggest any updates from unconfirmed sources budget speculation [indiscernible].

Operator

operator
#10

We take our next question from Richard Garchitorena at Barclays.

Richard Garchitorena

analyst
#11

Great. Just a follow-up on Cobre Panama. I guess in terms of the final audit, was there anything specific that surprised you anything that you weren't expecting that may cause you to sort of change the plan going forward in terms of the prep work that you're doing ahead of a decision from the government?

Tristan Pascall

executive
#12

Richard. Yes, thanks. Look, the audit overall was a very thorough process. We were very satisfied with the level of engagement from SCS, the independent auditor, but also with government as we went through a lot of interviews, a lot of site visits. It was extremely comprehensive. I think overall, the mark the 87.7 out of 100 score, I think, reflects a high level of compliance. There was 361 areas of full compliance. And then 7 areas of partial compliance. I think there are 2 areas of [indiscernible] allocation, but it's 7 areas of partial compliance. And the areas that we've drawn out in particular, rehabilitation by diversity, we were a bit aware of. So for example, on rehabilitation -- reforestation, I'm sorry, we were aware that during the during the period of closure or suspension of the mine, but we haven't been able to do that work. So it's no surprise that some of those reforestation areas have slid backwards. We were some 54.7% completion of target, which was over the life of the mine. But we had lost ground because during this closure, we haven't been spending money on those areas with the lack of clarity. Similarly biodiversity, ecosystem conservation, species protection, we're very aware and we think this provides the opportunity to strengthen what is a very high level of compliance already. But what we did see is in those noncompliances, there wasn't any broad rate down in environmental management, there were no acute environmental issues that were of major concern, instead [indiscernible] identify are further work where we need to document further and we're reviewing and identifying those areas and certainly, we're keen to address those and ensure that we continue to improve the standards of Cobre Panama.

Richard Garchitorena

analyst
#13

Great. And on the cost $60 million incurred in the second quarter impact for the full year guidance. The cash cost expectation of $450 million, is that still on track? Or is there anything that you've seen maybe scope that you could do better than that?

Tristan Pascall

executive
#14

Thanks, Richard. Ryan, do you want to take that question on costs so far at Panama?

Ryan MacWilliam

executive
#15

Yes, sure. So Richard, in short, circa $4.40 C1 costs. We have expected at Cobre Panama. We still expect to be in line that through the balance of the year. So I'd say we're on track for guidance. We're on track for cost in Panama following the successful ramp-up of the stockpile processing in Q2.

Operator

operator
#16

We'll move to our next question from Lawson Winder at Bank of America.

Lawson Winder

analyst
#17

Thank you for today's update. Just on Cobre Panama again, just thinking around timing, what is your latest thinking on how long it required to ramp up Corporate Panama to run rate once the fiscal framework is in place and all approval is secured? And you noted the workforce at 3,000 people, but that's really impressive. How do you expect that ramp-up to trend for the balance of the year? And just trying to think of like what place you might be in at year-end in terms of total employment and that ability to ramp up the mine?

Tristan Pascall

executive
#18

Thanks, Lawson. Well, thanks for the question. First thing to note, we're not in that mode yet of a full staff, and we're working through the government process. As I said, we will wait for governments around that timetable. If and when that comes through in terms of our time line to full production, the stockpile processing activity at now [indiscernible] areas, really, it's mining, the mining activity, in particular, drill and blast or waste stripping or full fleet mobilization that we're not involved at this stage. The fleet has been well maintained during this period of closure. But ultimately, the full restart will depend on our ability to restart mining, both in Batika and in the Kalina area to catch up with those processes [indiscernible], that's really the challenge. So that will come back to people, which you point out, they're on-boarding and training the workforce, getting operators and maintenance personnel back. We've been very pleased how the Panamanians have responded and come back into the workforce, some 1,000 people already, most of those -- well, everybody on a truck right now that's involved in stockpile processing, a truck operator was previously hired at Cobre Panama, and we're very excited to have those people back and give the, again, meaningful employment. The context of a large unemployment number in Panama, some 10% of the country is searching employment -- for an employment. So it's a [indiscernible] population of Panama to 2 million, that's 200,000 people that are out there looking for work. And I think that gives us opportunities to bring people back. We will need to get up to some 6,000 people. In the event we do move to a full production ramp-up. But the constraint will be how quickly we can bring people on board and train them. I think it will be done at the highest level skills that will be the harvest. We will certainly be able to get to 80% or 90% of our throughputs within the 6 to 9 months that we've spoken about, and we think that guidance remains relevant as good as we have for the time being. But the last 10% to 20% of optimization will take time and rely on really those high level of skills. So, that's how we see it. It will still take 6 to 9 months, I think.

Operator

operator
#19

We'll move to our next question from Matthew Murphy at BMO Capital Markets.

Matt Murphy

analyst
#20

More questions on Cobre Panama. So -- and congratulations on the restart. But this Ministerial Commission, okay. So first, it's a regular schedule meeting that's happening between the ministers. Do you have any insight into when those meetings happen, how frequently? And then is it your understanding you could be engaged at any time? Or like similarly regardless of what they say, they'll have to engage with you. But do you know is your expectation that, that process has to finish. There has to be some recommendations made to the President, and then you'd be consulted? And then if you have any insight into what's on the government's agenda right now, do you think the mine is like first and foremost? Or are there other events going on in Panama?

Tristan Pascall

executive
#21

Yes. Thanks, Matthew. So look, in regards to the Ministerial Commission, certainly the commission has established a schedule of regular meetings. And I don't think they -- not all of those are published, but the indication when they first announced around the 14th of July which was sort of 2 to 3 times a week. There's a lot to go through. I think at that time when Minister [ Chipoka ] Minister of Commerce spoke around what was involved, and he made it very clear how much effort would be involved going through in a diligent way through the entire comprehensive audit. And we respect that process. We don't necessarily think that there can't be engagements in parallel that would be an opportunity. However, we will take our guidance from government around this time table. And certainly, there's an indication from the Minister, the Minister of Commerce around their commitments to go through this in a serious manner and report that to the present their recommendations for what the future of the mine will be.

Operator

operator
#22

We'll take our next question from Anita Soni at CIBC World Markets.

Anita Soni

analyst
#23

Tristan. So my question was just around restart costs. So I think we established -- or you guys have indicated that was around $250 million, including some capital to get the processing plant restarted. The second leg, you restart the mine operations. Could you give us an idea of what the capital would look like for that portion of it?

Tristan Pascall

executive
#24

Sure, Snita, thanks for the question. And again, we're not at that phase yet, and we will follow the process around engagement and the steps forward from here. But if and when that happened, we said previously before that we think the total involved would be some $350 million to $500 million, of which this $250 million for the initial stockpile processing would be inclusive. And we have no reason to change that -- those numbers at the moment. We think that's reasonable. Ryan, we gave some guidance around the cost of those operations, maybe you could just fill in on the cost side of things. The operating cost side?

Ryan MacWilliam

executive
#25

Yes, sure. So as you said, Tristan, $250 million and turn that ramp-up is appropriate. We've spent around $60 million of that as of June 30. The rest of that will come through in the balance of the year. And then to go from there, if we get to the point that, as Tristan said we are moving to full operations, that's an incremental $200 million split across additional operating costs, working capital and CapEx. But in that respect, we're obviously waiting for the government's guidance on next steps before we get into that. But broadly, in line with expectations in terms of Cobre Panama stockpile processing across both the ramp-up and start-up costs and the operating costs we're seeing coming out of that.

Operator

operator
#26

We'll go next to Ian Rossouw at Barclays.

Ian Rossouw

analyst
#27

Just coming back to Cobre Panama and the stockpile processing. Just sort of curious what determines the decision in terms of the throughput rate? Obviously, you say it's 38 million tonnes. Obviously, I guess, one, that's basically the one line for a year. But if you wanted to increase the throughput rates, would you be able to do that and perhaps 2 lines. Just wanted to get your sort of thoughts around that. And Ryan, just on that sort of spending within you mentioned in Q2 the $60 million. I see you stripped out some of that about $40 million out of EBITDA. Will you do that again in Q3? Or is that -- was that just a one-off?

Tristan Pascall

executive
#28

Thanks, Ian. So yes, in terms of what could be done with the stockpile ramp-up, we were pleased to have the first production come through from Train 3 and I guess it's a testament to the amount of efforts by the team there in the preservation activities over the last 2.5 years and the investment made by the company to ensure asset integrity that we've been able to see those start up well. There's been a lot of acute focus on safety, really a focus on making sure we do things reliably rather than with velocity or excess speed really that with a solid platform. And Train 3 started up very well. We had -- we had liners there that we want to exhaust and we've now used those liners. So we've now taken Train 3 down, and we're moving some to -- we've moved across on to Train 2. And -- your question is whether we could bring on, say, Train 1 as we go into the reline on Train 3. And it's a possibility, its really limited by people and bringing people that we, at this stage, the 3,000 that we have on site feels appropriate. We're only able, for example, to give out on contracts at the moment because of the nature of the limited activities that we're allowed to do. And so at the higher skill level, that will be a challenge until -- and if and when we get a green light that we would be able to provide people greater clarity around their employment. And so we could potentially add another train. But at this stage, we're focused around moving now on Train 2. And at that level, we consider we have enough stockpiles for around 12 months of operation. In terms of the costs, Ryan, could you take that question?

Ryan MacWilliam

executive
#29

Sure. , the $250 million in restart for the stockpile processing is broken up in three components. The first is $50 million of working capital outflows. So that doesn't report to EBITDA. The second is $100 million of CapEx. So that also doesn't go into EBITDA, and then to the crux of your question. Third is $100 million of operating costs associated with the commissioning. That's what we've adjusted EBITDA for. We've taken that out of adjusted EBITDA. Usual $40 million adjustment in Q2, and we expect to take the balance of the $60 million adjustment as we spend that in the second half of the year out of EBITDA. So in short, none of that $250 million is flowing through to EBITDA.

Operator

operator
#30

We'll move to our next question from Myles Allsop at UBS.

Myles Allsop

analyst
#31

Great A few quick questions. Maybe first on Taca Taca. Is there -- should we be concerned that the ESIA and the water permits are taking longer to come through? I mean is this could it take another 12 months and we missed a RIGI deadline and we're in trouble. I mean what's happening there? That's the first question.

Tristan Pascall

executive
#32

Sure Myles. So Taca Taca, yes, there have been some slight delays. We apply for the ESIA and water permit with the provincial authorities in Salto. There have been some roll changes there. And so as new people have come in, I think it's natural that they take a while to get behind the desk. But as we see things, we -- in terms of questions and [indiscernible] looking forwards, we think we're sort of through that question around. And our understanding is the process will move forward in due order. We've we've had confirmation that the application is under review, and we haven't received any further information requests for some time. So that fits to us that it's now in the series stage of review, obviously, with those rule changes, it has taken a lot longer, but we're not concerned about that given the feedback that we're getting from [indiscernible].

Myles Allsop

analyst
#33

Okay. Reassuring. And maybe secondly, a question for Ryan on the unit cost inflation. You say that you got $0.25 kind of risk from currency and fuel and additional risk if current conditions persist. So if we say your midpoint of guidance is what $228 million at spot kind of diesel and currency, how much should we kind of think unit costs will be? Is it $0.30, $0.40 higher than the midpoint of the current guidance range?

Ryan MacWilliam

executive
#34

Yes. So in short, that $0.25 is if you take our current guidance and you inflate the rest of the year costs for spot fuel, spot quite and spot gold. So we get a slight tailwind on the gold side, but headwinds on both fuel and the kwacha. So I take the midpoint of our cost guidance and add the $0.25 in if we assume we see a higher cost environment that we're seeing today continue in a pretty static manner for the balance of the year.

Operator

operator
#35

We'll go next to Cody Hayden at Deutsche Bank.

Cody Hayden

analyst
#36

Just on Taca Taca. I think you've previously spoken about the potential to bring in a strategic partner. And I was wondering if your thinking has evolved on this or if there are any updates you can share regarding partnership discussions or funding considerations at this stage?

Tristan Pascall

executive
#37

Thanks, Cody. Thanks for the question. Ryan, do you want to talk about potential partners and partnerships at Taca Taca?

Ryan MacWilliam

executive
#38

Our real focus on Taca Taca at the moment is on derisking the project. Those activities are the ones that Tristan's talked about around the ESIA work around preparing the RIGI application. From a funding perspective, I think we're fortunate that we have a range of options. We've previously talked about the fact that we can look at putting a project financing case. We've signed a working agreement with IFC in preparation for that potential work stream. We've talked about the fact that we could bring a partner in. We've talked about the fact that there are significant gold byproduct credits associated with Taca Taca that would be amenable to streaming. And we will consider all of those options in due course. But it is early stage in terms of looking at funding options. I'd say our real focus at the moment is on derisking the project in advance of those considerations.

Operator

operator
#39

Got it. And secondly, if I may, just back to Cobre Panama, following the environmental audit, have you observed any meaningful shift in public sentiment towards the mine through your community engagement? Just kind of wondering how that maybe progressed with recent updates.

Tristan Pascall

executive
#40

Sure, Cody. So on the public perception side, yes, we're actually selling a new poll just in the last 24 hours or so. So that was a group called [indiscernible]. They're one of the authorized holding companies in Panama alongside Gallup so it's not quite the same methodology as Gallup, but what we see compared to the last Gallup survey in May, which was a 55% approval rating, the [indiscernible] were reporting the 63% favorable opinion of Cobre Panama. Alongside that, some of the questions that were asked, 55% of Panamanian supported President and negotiating a new agreement with Cobra Panama, 68% people believe mining creates jobs, 63% believe it contributes to economic growth and 67% believe it generates significant revenues for the country. That's in the context Cody, where we have been continuing our outreach efforts and social media affairs, live events. I think to date, since this year, we've had some -- and last year, some 420,000 direct engagements in [indiscernible] suspension. And really, that's been about educating people around the benefits of the mine to discuss the [indiscernible] of Panama over its national resources to talk about contributing to economy what that means in a local context on the ground with people and our commitment to mining responsibly with the highest standards.

Operator

operator
#41

Next question comes from Craig Hutchison at TD Cowen.

Craig Hutchison

analyst
#42

I just wanted to ask on the African assets. The sales have lagged production here for a couple of quarters in a row. Can you just maybe talk to some of the logistical issues there and whether you think we could see that reverse itself in the third quarter?

Tristan Pascall

executive
#43

Thanks, Craig. Ryan, do you just want to talk about production versus sales?

Ryan MacWilliam

executive
#44

So Craig, where we saw the big difference was in Q1, and that was really just a function of ending the year-end last year with very low finished good inventories. And I'd say, to some extent, what you've seen is that normalized through mostly Q1 but also coming into Q2. So the export channel is working well through the variety of transport corridors and ports that we're using. And as I say, that delta is principally driven by the low starting inventories at the end of last year, and we expect a fairly stable sales versus production for the balance of this year.

Cody Hayden

analyst
#45

Okay. Great. And just on the sulfuric acid, you flagged potential surplus in Q3 here. Is that something that could be material and potentially lower cost? Or is it fairly small volumes.

Ryan MacWilliam

executive
#46

Yes, Craig. So what we saw is an $18 million benefit from selling that sulfuric acid in Q2. We're seeing that continue. In Q2, that had around $0.05 benefit to our C1 costs because the asset reports as a byproduct. We see potential for similar sorts of sales through the second half of this year, so potentially another $0.05 benefits. But obviously, that's very contingent on what happens in Middle East and do we see sulfuric acid come back to the market. But I would say for Q3, we both expect higher diesel prices to hit our costs, and that will be a tailwind. And then we do expect some sulfuric acid sales in Q3 to somewhat offset that -- those diesel costs.

Operator

operator
#47

And we'll move next to Marcio Farid at Goldman Sachs.

Jean-Baptiste Devevey

analyst
#48

Just a quick one on my side. I know you talked about the cost to process the stockpile of Cobre Panama at $4.5 per pound in terms of C1, and we've talked about the CapEx and operating cost for the ramp-up as well. Just wondering if it's maybe too early, but how should we think about what's Cobre Panama eventually at steady state and nameplate capacity. How should we think about C1 and operating cost for that operation, considering maybe 3, 3.5 years of cost inflation that we have observed will be -- that would be great.

Tristan Pascall

executive
#49

Thanks, Marcio. Ryan, are you able to take that question on costs?

Ryan MacWilliam

executive
#50

Yes, I think it is too early to put out specific guidance. As Tristan notes, we're laser-focused on the stockpile processing, doing that in a stable environmentally responsible and safe manner. If the government takes next steps. At that stage, we'll consider both more detail around the ramp-up cost of full operations and also the operating costs associated with those operations. One, we would expect the operating philosophy and approach would be similar to what it previously was, in terms of cost performance. So if you take those operating costs that we saw 3 years ago and inflate that by what you've seen across large copper mines in the industry, I think that would be a sensible way of and considering what would that look like on a full restart. So you're getting closer to the -- probably before we were [ 1 to 150 ] C1, and that we're probably going to be somewhere between [ 150 and 180 ] at C1.

Marcio Farid Filho

analyst
#51

Okay. That's great. And a quick follow-up, obviously, the gold and copper hedges come to an end this quarter. Full exposure to spot now. Is that a plan to eventually review the hedging policy and had some hedge again? Or are you planning just to stick with sport exposure for now.

Ryan MacWilliam

executive
#52

We think about hedging as an insurance tool. So we've put in hedges when we've had periods of high capital spend, combined with leverage on the balance sheet. And we did see that last year with Panama offline and S3 project underway, with S3 now being completed, the strong copper price has meant that we've let those hedges roll off. Our plan would be to stay unhedged, but we always had as a tool in the toolbox if we see capital spending coming or we think the balance sheet needs extra protection, we will revisit that. But as I said, we sit here today, because of the strong outlook for the second half of this year at spot prices into next year. There's no near or medium-term plan to go back into hedging.

Operator

operator
#53

And we'll take our final question today from Myles Allsop at UBS.

Myles Allsop

analyst
#54

Just a quick follow-up question on Cobre Panama. I mean, obviously, if the government gets to aggressive with the proposal as and when it comes. I mean how quickly can you revert back to arbitration? And how confident are you that you can kind of defend shareholder value here?

Tristan Pascall

executive
#55

Thanks, Myles. Sure. Look, our arbitration remains in suspension, but all the company's rights are protected Myles, and we can reinitiate that. The panel was established. But what we see is that we've seen constructive progress in Panama. They've been good progress to date, and we can point to really concrete progress milestones around the preservation and safe management plan approval last year and then moving into concentrate sales restart of the power plant and then more recently, processing of the stockpiles, both for -- to ensure integrity of the assets are moreso environmental [indiscernible], but that is a step forward in terms of reemployment hiring back 1,000 people. So we see that as good faith. Arbitration is not the preferred outcome, and we would look to deal with the matter in a constructive mode. And in terms of [indiscernible], we think that it needs to be balanced between economic realities and reputation, but also consciousness of providing benefit to Panamanians and full transparency around that process. So that's our focus. As I said, arbitration is not a preferred to come, but all our rights are protected.

Operator

operator
#56

And that concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the conference back over to Tristan Pascal for closing remarks.

Tristan Pascall

executive
#57

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everybody, for your valuable time today.

Operator

operator
#58

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

Read the full transcript via the API

You're viewing the first half of this call. Get the complete First Quantum Minerals Ltd. transcript — plus 248,000+ transcripts from 12,000+ companies, speaker segments, AI summaries and full-text search — through the EarningsCalls.dev API.

Get the API View API docs →

This call discussed

For developers and AI pipelines

Programmatic access to First Quantum Minerals Ltd. earnings transcripts and 248,000+ others is available through the EarningsCalls.dev REST API. Plans from $24.99/month — full transcripts, speaker segments, full-text search, and the recently-added /api/v1/transcripts/recent polling endpoint for ETL pipelines.