FinecoBank Banca Fineco S.p.A. (FBK) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the FinecoBank Full Year 2021 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Alessandro Foti, CEO of Fineco. Please go ahead, sir.

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our 2021 results conference call. Last year, compared with our new dimension of growth, thanks to the acceleration of the structural trends, and we are progressively delivering on our 2 strategic discontinuities in order to become more a platform fulfilling the financial needs of our clients than a bank. First, the growth of our balance sheet is now definitely under control, which is in turn progressively improving our revenue mix in favor of fees and commissions. Second, Fineco Asset Management is now reaching a new dimension and it has accelerated its process of taking more control of the value chain to further increase our investing revenues and margins. The strategic discontinuities are making Fineco more and more a fast-growing and capital-light business model with a structurally higher profitability, thanks to the investing and the structurally higher room to dispose of it as the leverage ratio is no more a point of attention. This will allow us to distribute higher level of dividends and at the same time, to be in the position to invest more on our growth. In this regard, we are very pleased to propose to the next Annual General Meeting, a dividend per share of EUR 0.39. Coming back to our results. In 2021, we recorded a record high adjusted net profit of EUR 349 million, up by 7.6% year-on-year despite the increased contribution of systemic charges. This result is even more valuable considering that has been achieved in a new normal world and beats the previous record set in 2020. Adjusted revenues were at EUR 805 million, increasing by 7.4% year-on-year and mainly supported by the investing, thanks to the growth in assets under management and the higher control of the value chain by Fineco Asset Management. Brokerage confirmed a structurally higher flow also in an environment characterized by a much lower volatility compared to 2020. Operating costs were under control and cost/income ratio was equal to 32.2% confirming operating leverage as a key strength of the bank. On cost, let me please underline that the strategic decision to manage almost 100% internally our IT is protecting us from the inflation on IT costs. Our capital position confirmed to be strong and safe with a common equity Tier 1 ratio at 18.8%. Our commercial activity continued to strengthen compared to the impressive growth experienced in 2020, after the record net sales registered in 2021 in January, we recorded around EUR 7 billion -- EUR 0.7 billion. The mix continued to be strong with about EUR 0.3 billion in assets under management, of which around 75% were represented by Fineco Asset Management to retail net sales. On our Irish company, let me please underline that January saw a further confirmation of the segregation in the discontinuity on the investing value chain with EUR 0.5 billion institutional net sales. Brokerage revenues are estimated for January at around EUR 19 million, also thanks to the uptick in volatility, mainly in the second part of the month. Revenues are around 70% higher compared to the average monthly revenues in the period 2017-2019, confirming once again that the floor of the business is now definitely higher. Let's now move on Slide 5. As announced, we reached a very strong industrial results also in a new normal world with adjusted net profit standing at EUR 349.2 million in 2021, plus 7.6% year-on-year on a like-for-like basis despite the higher contribution for systemic charges. Revenues at EUR 804.5 million, up 7.4% year-on-year as we have been able to catch the strong acceleration in the structural trends in place, mainly thanks to the contribution of investing. Operating costs equaled to EUR 258.9 million, increasing by 4.4% year-on-year, excluding cost strictly related to the growth of the business. Cost/income continued to be very low at 32.2%, despite the continuous expansion in assets and clients, thanks to our strong operating leverage and to the scalability of our platform. Let's now move on Slide 6 and start analyzing more in details the dynamics of our results. In this slide, we show our net financial income amounting to EUR 280 million and remaining flat in the year. Net interest income was equal to EUR 248 million, despite the worsening of interest rate environment, and profit from treasury management to EUR 32 million. Let me remind our sensitivity to a change in interest rates. The parallel shift of 100 basis points would generate EUR 133 million of additional net interest income. With a parallel shift of minus 100 basis points, we would generate minus EUR 160 million of less net interest income. Let's now move on Slide 7. One of the main consequence of our focus on becoming more a platform than a bank is that we are continuing to accelerate the growth of our nonfinancial income, which in 2021 was equal to EUR 522.1 million, up by 11.9% year-on-year, mainly thanks to the positive contribution of investing. Now jumping to Slide 24. We will deep dive on the performance of the brokerage business. In 2021, brokerage confirmed once again that the floor of the business is structurally higher compared to the past and regardless to the level of volatility. As you can see in the chart on the top of the slide, in the fourth quarter of last year, brokerage revenues reached EUR 52.9 million in a period characterized by low volatility, resulting nevertheless, in a monthly average 57% higher compared to the monthly average revenues in the period 2017-2019. In January, estimated brokerage revenues were cheaper to EUR 19 million, around 70% higher compared to the average monthly revenues in the period 2017 and '19. Let me remind you that the growth of the brokerage business is driven by the contribution of 3 structural components. First, the deep reshape of our brokerage business. In this regard, we are live with the marketing campaign on our leveraged certificates platform. And in the first half of 2022, we will launch a brand new brokerage platform which we will combine our state-of-the-art standard with a top quality, easy to use. Second, the client base using our platform is widening with active investors that they have grown significantly in absolute terms, standing around 35% above the average level of 2018 and '19. As you know, our active investors have an average of 4 executed orders per month, are wealthy people in their 40s as well as 50s with assets on average above EUR 200,000. And the vast majority of them has a relationship with some financial advisors for the long-term planning of their financial wealth. We are also live with the most competitive offer in Italy to catch the next generation of active investors with a very aggressive pricing for our investing and brokerage platform, giving clients up to 30 years older access to global market through shares, bonds, ETFs and mutual funds, also through accumulation plans. Third, we are continuously increasing our retail market share. Let's now move on Slide 8 for focus on investing. Let me remind you that over the last few months, we have experienced a strong acceleration towards assets under management. And we have been able to catch the structural plans in place in Italy. On top of this, Fineco Asset Management is now reaching a new dimension and the economies of scale. This is taking more control of the value chain. As a result, investing revenues amounted to EUR 275.6 million in 2021, increasing by nearly 30% year-on-year. Management fees increased by nearly 30% year-on-year in 2021, while in the fourth quarter of 2021 increased by 36.1% year-on-year and by 8.1% quarter-on-quarter. In the fourth quarter, we also recorded EUR 4.2 million in other commissions line, which are strictly linked to the operating efficiency in the value chain reached on the institutional classes by Fineco Asset Management and booked at the end of the year. Management fees margins after tax increased to 50 basis points in the fourth quarter, thanks to Fineco Asset Management delivering on its strategic discontinuity. And thanks to the accumulation products, which are increasingly shifting towards equity. On top of this, we have also recorded a positive contribution by Fineco Asset Management activity on the institutional business, which is, in turn, reinforcing the effect coming from retail classes. Let's now move on Slide 9 for a focus on our cost. This slide contains, once again, efficiency to be part of our DNA and core in our bank represented a clear and unique competitive advantage. Let me please underline that 2021 was characterized by cost directly related to the strong acceleration of our growth dynamics in the new normal world. Operating costs in the year at EUR 258.9 million, growing by 4.4% year-on-year, excluding costs related to the growth of the business, mainly related to additional EUR 4.2 million cost for Fineco Asset Management that they are current with the acceleration to further expand its business and have a higher control of the value chain. Additional EUR 1.1 million in marketing costs in U.K. Staff expenses were equal to EUR 109.6 million in the period, increasing by 6.5% on a yearly basis, net of the cost related to the expansion of the business of Fineco Asset Management. Finally, non-HR costs at EUR 149.3 million, growing by 2.9% year-on-year, net of above-mentioned costs related to the growth of the business. Let's now move on Slide 11 for a focus on our capital ratios. Fineco confirmed once again a rock solid capital position on the wave of a safe balance sheet. Common equity Tier 1 ratio was equal to 18.8%, including the 2021 dividend proposal. Leverage ratio was equal to 4.02%, in line with the optionality allowed by ECB and Bank of Italy. Our legacy ratio, excluding the exposure towards Central Banks, is equal to 3.84%. Risk-weighted asset was equal to EUR 4,618 million and total capital ratio to 29.63% as of December 2021. Let's now move on Slide 13. As you know, 2021 has confirmed that in the new normal world, Fineco is in a new dimension of growth. And last year, we were able to deliver record net sales with a strong asset mix as assets under management increased by almost 70%. Let me now spend a few words on the recruiting. In the new environment, Fineco emerged more clearly as the perfect bank for professionals looking to grow their own business in a sustainable way. As you can see on Slide 14, starting from last year, we have experienced a strong increase in the interest of financial advisors to join our bank, thanks to our business model. To this regard, please note that we have no need to overpay financial advisors with huge upfront fees and using the aggressive approach historically taken by the industry. As a result, last year, we recorded a net increase of 184 personal financial advisors in our network as we recruited 116 senior and 155 junior with net sales generated organically by the bank at 87% in the period. Let's now skip to Slide 19. In this slide, we summarized our guidance. With regards to our banking revenues, we expect our net financial income to be in 2022, at least stable at the level of 2021. Going forward, we expect our net interest income to benefit from the new interest rate environment, both thanks to the sensitivity of the existing portfolio and thanks to their investment. Let -- I would like also to remind a point that Fineco, thanks to the fact that we have half of our investment portfolio that is at a variable rate, we have one of the highest gearing to interest rates among the banking industry. Let me also add that this new interest rate scenario, coupled with the most recent newsflash on tax credit has changed our appetite towards this activity, and we are now expecting to buy a lower amount of fiscal credit, but counterbalanced by a higher contribution from financial investments, thanks to the new investments in Italian govies with no significant impact on the net interest income. In any case, we expect to keep on lowering our exposure towards Italy, also considering the runoff of the UniCredit bonds. Overall, banking fees are now expected above EUR 50 million in 2022. Going forward, they are expected to keep on growing, thanks to the increase on the client base and the previous repricing actions. On investing, already taking into consideration the negative market effect of January. We expect that for 2022 revenues to increase high teens with higher management fees margins. We also expect a net increase of around 100, 120 personal financial advisors in our network and we are emerging as the reference point for professionals looking to grow in a sustainable way. Going forward, we can see in the guidance of around EUR 6 billion per year in assets under management and exchange and EUR 6 billion per year in retail net sales by Fineco Asset Management. We also confirmed the increase of the bank's management fees margins after tax up to around 55 basis points and pretax margins up to around 75 basis points by 2024. At this regard, let me please underline that based on the most recent numbers, we could reach that level before than expected. Brokerage revenues are expected to remain strong with a floor, in relative terms with respect to volatility, that is definitely higher than in the past. Let me underline that in 2022, it is reasonable to expect a higher volatility compared to 2021. So we are confident that brokerage revenues will be higher compared to last year. Operating costs in 2022 are expected to grow around 5% year-on-year, not including around EUR 7 million of additional costs related to FAM strategic discontinuity to improve the efficiency of the investing value chain. On cost, let me please underline that the strategic decision to manage 100% internally our IT is protecting us from the inflation on IT cost. Thanks to this, we will consider in the coming months, the possibility to further accelerate the marketing expenses to take advantage by the strengthening of the structural trends. Cost/income, we confirm our guidance of a continuously declining cost/income in the long run, thanks to the scalability of our platform and to the strong operating gearing we have. This excluding potential higher marketing expenses. Systemic charges for 2022 are expected in a range between EUR 42 million and EUR 44 million booked within provisions for risk and charges. Tax rate for 2022, we expect a decrease of around 1 percentage point. On our capital ratio, we expect CET1 ratio to remain above the floor of 70% (sic) [ 17% ] and leverage ratio comfortably in a range between 3.5% and 4%. Currently, with the combination of both a strong acceleration in the growth of the bank and the distribution of generous dividend. As you can see on Slide 54, in the annex of our presentation, the point of attention related to the leverage ratio has been definitely fixed. On dividend per share, going forward, we expect it constantly increasing, also thanks to the progressive delivery on our strategic discontinuities. Cost of risk was equal to 4 basis points in the fourth quarter 2021, thanks to the quality of our lending portfolio that is offered exclusively to our loyal customer base and to the improvement of the macroeconomic scenario. In 2022, we expect it in a range between 10 and 15 basis points. Finally, we expect a robust and high-quality net sales with a mix mainly skewed towards asset under management and with a lower component of deposits, thanks to the all initiatives we are undertaking. Let's now move to Slide 20. As you know, in order to take full advantage of our new dimensional growth, we have undertaken a wide set of initiatives to keep the growth of our balance sheet under control. Let me now go briefly through the new initiatives. First, we changed the incentive scheme of our network, a financial plan that is now only linked to net sales in assets under management. Second, we will further increase the productivity of the network through new software development for our advisory services, leveraging on our deep internal IT know-how. Third, we are improving the quality of our client base focusing our target market on the upper end, also thanks to the past repricing of our banking services in order to better control the acceleration of new clients from traditional banks and be more selective on our client acquisition. Finally, thanks to Fineco Asset Management, efficiency and strong time to market, we can count on a wider product range in order to fully catch the whole spectrum of clients' financial needs and effectively convert their excess liquidity. On top of Fineco Asset Management Target offer, our Irish company now is accelerating even further in the release of the new strategy, and we also launched the passive funds in retail classes. All these sets of new initiatives is already delivering, allowing us to move towards the concept of platform. As you know, in 2021, we recorded a strong improvement in our asset under management net sales growing by 70% year-on-year and increasing their penetration of total net sales to 68% from 46% in 2020. On the other hand, the growth of the deposits is definitely under control, decreasing in 2021 by 41% to only EUR 1.5 billion, and representing only 14% of our total net sales. As a result, already now at the same time, we can sustain our strong long-term growth, distribute a higher level of dividend per share and comfortably remaining well above our regulatory requirements. Let's now move to Slide 23 to deep dive on Fineco Asset Management. As anticipated during the presentation, Fineco Asset Management is already delivering in its strategic discontinuity to take more control on the investing value chain, resulting in higher revenues and margins for the group. Fineco Asset Management is gaining commercial traction and increasingly contributing to the group net sales. In last year, it gathered a record high EUR 3.9 billion retail net sales, up by 81% year-on-year. As the Irish company is now reaching a new dimension and economy of scale, the pipeline of new solution is further accelerating. In the coming weeks, we will launch around 15 new strategies, allowing Fineco Asset Management to further step up its retail net sales. Let me please underline another important leg of Fineco Asset Management activity in the process of the internalization of the value chain, where results are even better than expected. As you know, our Irish company has recently recorded a strong increase in its institutional classes with EUR 3.2 billion net sales in 2021, and EUR 0.5 billion already in January. The more Fineco Asset Management grows in dimension and product offer, and the more it can use its sub-advisory mandate as underlying of the investment solutions. This leading an additional margin contribution from the bank. On top of this, the discontinuity in Fineco Asset Management is allowing our Irish company to progressively and structurally decrease the cost of third parties through a number of initiatives like, for example, the launch of new flagship product range fully managed in-house, new advisory services and lower cost of mandate. I will now leave the floor to Paolo Di Grazia, our Deputy General Manager, for an update on development on our U.K. business of Slide 27. Thank you, Paolo.

Thank you, Alessandro. Good afternoon, everybody. Last year, confirm once again that our offer in the U.K. is very well welcomed, thanks to our best-in-class price quality ratio and to a marketing campaign, targeting quality cluster of clients. We are not focused, as you know, on hit and run, highly speculative and volatile customers, but we are attracting experienced traders, loyal and looking for quality offer with a strong activation rate at 65% on our brokerage offer. As you can see from the graph on the left-hand side, of the slide, our quality client base is now equal to around 20,000 clients and our customer acquisition metrics further improved in 2021 with new current accounts doubled compared to the 2020. This is translating in a boost of our revenue metrics. And as a result, our U.K. business is progressively gaining traction and is now profitable at operating level. The trend of our revenue generation is extremely positive, as you can see from the graph on the right-hand side of the slide. In 2021, we recorded a EUR 1.6 million of brokerage revenues. In 2021 (sic) [ 2022 ], January proved to be another strong month. On top of this, our cross-selling is working very well, and we are continuing to improve our revenues mix in favor of over-the-counter and listed products, which are now the lion's share of our growth. On a final note, we are in the process of preparing the set up to launch our offer in Germany by the end of the 2022 as we think that our model adjust based on the features of the German market can be very attractive for local clients, also thanks to our unique price quality ratio. And thank you for your attention, and I'll give it back to Alessandro.

Thank you for your time, and now we can open the call to questions.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Domenico Santoro with HSBC.

Just a few questions, in particular on your guidance on Page 19. The migration to FAM is much faster, much quicker than you probably envisaged at the beginning. And you said that the 75 bps target will be maintained but probably realized sooner rather than later. I mean the -- what is implied in your guidance on investing? Because if I look at the Q4 trends, this guidance, it looks to me a little bit conservative. So the 5 bps margin increase that you realized in 2021, I mean, do you expect a similar improvement or something less? Just to understand what is implied in your guidance, also because in terms of sales, you're now basically running in line with EUR 6 million. The question that I received is on the EUR 4 million added fees in investing. My understanding is that they are related to efficiencies at FAM. Are they sustainable, might be larger going forward, or is this a one-off? But then a question on banking fees because also in this, you're running at a higher quarterly run rate, but you keep something like a guidance of about EUR 50 million. Can you be a little bit more precise? You're always talking about 55 bps more will be, I mean, very interesting to understand. The other question that I have is on NII. What's the contribution at this point from the fiscal credit to your NII in Q4? And what should we expect from higher [indiscernible] yield? Is it correct that NII, the core is at an inflation point at the moment? And then a question on the dividend. If we see you successful in reducing the size of the balance sheet. So moving deposit into AUM more than what you have done so far, improving also your leverage ratio. Is there any reason to expect the payout to increase in the future? And for that, what should happen?

Thank you, Domenico. So let me start by the -- the first question related to the -- so then what we can expect in terms of margins and so it's -- clearly, we are -- by definition, we are taking and we have to take a conservative approach because we -- there are -- for example, going forward, there are companies that we can control, like what the market is -- can do and so on. But clearly, assuming a decently normal world, it's pretty clear that we are clearly where -- we are in advance with respect to the plan for reaching the 75 basis points margin. And regarding this point, I'm inviting you in considering as a more interesting after-tax margins because they are embedding also the fiscal component on the Irish activity, but nevertheless. So we -- definitely, we -- based on -- and what is emerging as a positive surprise for us that our Irish company is doing a quite terrific job in doing things much better and faster than we were expecting. And this is allowing to us to be faster in internalizing components of the business. And this really is giving an additional contribution to the evolution of the margin. And so this more or less is, we don't -- we prefer not giving a precise run rate of the increase of the margins for -- exactly for the reason I explained before. And I think that if you look to the guidance we are giving in the increase of the revenues and so on, in my opinion, you can extract some interesting indication by how much we can expect to grow. But in any case, what is important to underline that -- the more Fineco Asset Management is growing in terms of dimension, and the more is expected to grow the institutional part, and this is not going to be linear. So because it's a matter of economy of scale, it's a matter of dimension. So clearly, this is a part of the business, which the more we -- the company becomes bigger and the more we can expect to get a positive surprise. Regarding the EUR 4 million other fees in investing, this is not a one-off, is requiring because for accounting reason, this operational efficiency that is extracted by the way they are accounted at the year-end, this is for accounting standard. And so we expect to have at least the same level of other fees and so on going through the horizon. Banking fees. Banking fees, clearly, this is driven by the reason -- the fact that we are keeping on acquiring new clients. Because the bank, despite we introduced 2 ways of repricing, is remaining incredibly attractive because in relative terms, if you compare what we are offering in terms of quality of services, the prices we are charging to clients, Fineco, the gap between us and traditional bank is keeping on widening. And so we expect that these flows of clients continuing and we have all the new clients entering paying the new pricing, and this is the reason why we expect. But we were not giving a -- so we prefer -- we are at the beginning of this year. So it's -- we think that is the right approach to be conservative. So saying we are going to be above EUR 50 million makes us comfortable and we -- and then probably we are going to make some more fine-tuning in the guidance going forward. Net interest income, as we explained, so the contribution of fiscal credit on the net interest income in the fourth quarter. I don't know, Lorena, if you want to -- if you are going to give me [indiscernible].

Yes. In the fourth quarter, it was EUR 1.6 million.

Yes, it's still negligible. And as we explained, we -- with the combination of interest rates that have gone up quite considerably and also the fact that the recent news on the market has made us even more conservative, we expect a lower amount of fiscal credit, both. But at the same time, this is going to be compensated by a higher amount of financial investments. So altogether, this is not going to make any significant change in terms of contribution to the net interest income. On dividend, if you are successful in reducing the -- our goal is to keep our balance sheet is -- base of deposits under control because it's clear that Fineco is keeping on growing, clients are continuously coming to us. There is -- what is very important to underline that we -- our clients are using, in a large way, our transactional banking platform and this is the real -- is the great value we have in size. So this means that by definition, using transactional banking means that a certain amount of liquidity is going to stay with us. This liquidity is incredibly valuable because it's sticky, completely uncorrelated to the level of interest rates. So the reason of our very high gearing on interest rates is also because our base of deposits is completely uncorrelated with the level of interest rates. So if you have interest rates going up also in a big way, this is not going to make any significant change in our -- in what we are paying to our clients because we are going to keep on paying absolutely nothing. And so our goal is to -- practically has been achieved regarding -- Fineco is going to continue to deliver continuously growing results, net profits. And then we will decide, going forward, according with the market conditions and so on. For example, if there is opportunity, we are going to take the possibility to spend more in the growth. For example, if there are going to be also possibility to accelerate even more in the dividend, yes, we will consider. But clearly, we don't think that makes a lot of sense for a company like Fineco is to give an extremely strict binding guidance on, for example, dividend payout. So that usually the guidance, a very strict dividend payout is given by companies that they are not on the fast lane of growth, are not expected to change too much in what they are doing. Fineco is a unique investment case because they are, at the same time, a fast-growing company and a company that is disrupting the industry, at the same time, distributing very high dividends. So we think that makes much more sense to give us an indication that our dividend per share is going to keep on growing constantly year-by-year.

Next question is from Gian Luca Ferrari with Mediobanca.

A couple of questions. The first one is on the banking book, if you can give us an updated number on the level of unrealized capital gains you have as of today. Then looking at your guidance of flat net financial income, but also looking at the sensitivities on your NII, it seems to me that you are not targeting much profit from treasury management in 2022. If you can elaborate a bit on what are you expecting to realize in '22. Then on products, you are mentioning 15 new strategies at funds. A bit of additional color on that. Are these target date? Is the duration 3 to 4 years? A bit of color would be appreciated. And last, still on new products, you are mentioning a new passive fund to be distributed to retail. This could go apparently a bit against the margin expansion you are targeting. Can you tell us what -- which kind of management fees are you expecting to charge from this passive fund?

First of all, let me start on the -- we had realized. So at the moment, what we were expected to have -- excuse me, the reason -- there is someone with the microphone open and there is some noise, please -- so thank you. So on the unrealized capital gains, we -- so what we were expected to get in terms of treasury management has been done throughout the month of January. So that is more or less -- this has been everything we were expecting has been done. So we don't expect to get any more going forward. And clearly, now with the big move that has been in interest rates now, the expected growth, for example, throughout the next year and 2024 is going to be massively driven by net interest income and the contribution of the treasury management is going to be practically close to 0. But this is not a good -- a great surprise. We had many times the possibility that we explained to the market that is a kind of communicating part. So the more we have interest rates going up and the more you can expect our net interest income keeping on rising. At the same time, with diminishing possibility to get the treasury management. So practically, as we explained, considering that we realized all the treasury management expected to be done throughout this year in the month of January. Now going forward, our guidance is at least to be flat. But clearly, if we look to the -- we are not giving a more precise guidance because the interest rates are extremely volatile. But if we look to the -- now we make a fourth of the existing interest rates, clearly, probably the guidance is going to be a little bit higher. But -- and this is the reason why we're guiding for at least flat financial income. And on the new fund products, is going to be a blend of new targets, but also a strategy based on the, for example, specific teams and a big trend that they are emerging on the market. For example, there is one that is a strategy that is moving clients in direction of investments and they're going to be protect them against inflation. And regarding the passive funds is exactly the contrary. So the -- what is going to be proposed to the market is something extremely innovative because we are going to internalize these passive funds. So we are going to keep inside an interesting part of these margins. And this is going to be used for an -- in a kind of robotized solutions for clients. So at the end of the process, these new solutions, but we are going to be more precise going forward. It's going to be something that we think quite disruptive for the industry. Going forward, we are going to arrange a specific conference on the launch of these new products because these new products, thanks to the fact that we are in control of the operational side of this story, are going to be incredibly convenient for clients and margin accretive for us. And so this is going -- so it's not -- so the risk to have a dilution in what we are doing, it does not exist is exactly the [ contrary ].

The next question is from Alberto Villa with Intermonte.

A couple of questions from my side as well. First of all, I would like to have your view on how inflation is affecting your business apart from the interest rate scenario. I'm wondering if we might expect any pressure on the cost side. You guided for plus 5% in this year. Is that a level of growth that we should expect even for the coming years? And on that, if the 5% in 2022 already includes some investments for the expansion in Germany and how should we look at the cost associated to this move? And again, on inflation, if the higher inflation for Italian households will eventually help you accelerate moving cash into managed assets was a view and if you think there is EUR 6 billion you guided for in terms of net inflows, is something you can overachieve this year. And the final question is on competition. We have been hearing Italian banks like Intesa, in their business plan, but also Mediobanca today, pushing [ their high ] initiative to attract existing -- new clients into, let's say, lighter banks or models which copycat some of your -- the feature of your model. Is that something that could slow down your growth in any way in terms of customer acquisition and so on? Any thoughts would be appreciated.

Thank you for the very, very interesting question. First of all, let me make an extremely broad comment on the impact of inflation on our business. Let me start from the end. So the -- overall, the inflation is good -- for the time being, is having a very positive impact on our business for a very simple reason because now we are -- as you know, Fineco is characterized by being an extremely diversified business model, which we have 3 cylinders that they are powering our growth -- our revenues. One is banking, then there is investing and then there is brokerage. So the fact that we -- now we have more inflation and so on has created a unique situation which we have all the 3 cylinders that they are pushing for growth, because until -- as you remind us, until the most recent past, we had the banking cylinder that was a little bit under pressure considering the interest rate environment. Now it's pretty clear with this new environment, the banking business is going to keep on progressively accelerating in a very interesting way. So second, clearly, this is driving -- is bringing us back to a much more normal environment. So with the volatility that is back again at least at a decent level. And so this is making the brokerage and business that we -- on which we have a great expectation. At the same time, overall, considering all the most important trends, this is not going to disturb too much the investing business. So investing business, we need to keep them growing quite nicely. It's possible that they can grow a little bit less than in respect to the extraordinary year we had last year. But clearly -- so this -- but this is not going to change anything in terms of the expectation in terms of growth of revenues, margins and so on. So at the end of the story, we have a combination that is absolutely great because everything is expected to keep on growing quite nicely. So we are extremely pleased. So for us, this new environment is even more -- even better and more balanced with respect to what we had in the past years. And regarding the cost is, we are clearly in incredibly great advantage because we think that going forward, financial institutions expected to face quite a lot of pressure in terms of, for example, IT inflation cost because -- and clearly, we are immune by this kind of inflation. In the guidance, we are not putting a significant cost for Germany for a very simple reason because Germany is expected to be probably up and running by year-end. So the impact on 2022 is going to be very, very small. So this is not going to. And for sure, the second point, you are completely right. And a higher inflation environment is making clients more aware that keeping cash on the current account is not a great choice. And this probably is explaining why despite the horrible January we had in terms of markets, nevertheless, they -- and also considering the seasonality, the net sales in asset under management has remained absolutely very interesting. Because in other period of times in January characterized by such a huge correction in the market would have driven a not so positive net sales, but probably the reason to have negative net sales. This has not been the case. It's been an absolutely decent number. And this is a confirmation that a higher inflation environment is helping in making clients more aware. Regarding the third point, we think that the announcement made by Intesa is a great news for us, for a very simple reason because when you have the most important, the largest financial institution in Italy that is putting as a cornerstone of the business plan, a big push in direction of a mortgage price world, and there is no more intention to buy other banks to buy branches. Clearly, now we can say that we are completely definitely in our world. So we expect that the pie that is going to be available for us is going to become much bigger because now it's pretty clear when you have such a huge and large important institution like Intesa that is making such a bold step, it's clear that the old world is gone and welcoming the new world. And this is our world and in which now the landscape in which we are competing for clients is much more in our favor because it's a landscape in which that the component represented by the fact that you are occupying the territory that we have -- you have a kind of oligopolistic position is going. And now that the landscape is the landscaping, which we are fighting for clients based on quality of services and something. This is our -- is the landscaping, which we are absolutely great. So I'm very happy to have this because now also the last remaining clients that is still saying, come on, I can't trust of the digital world. And now it's clearly it's -- now we are -- so the market is going to change dramatically, and it's changing in a direction that is our direction. So we are very, very pleased. And this is going to -- I think, is going to bring a huge contribution to our growth.

Next question is from Elena Perini with Intesa Sanpaolo.

Yes, I've got 2 questions. The first 1 is a strategic question. In this new year, which has just started, which is, on one hand, the highest opportunity that you see ahead. And on the other hand, the most significant challenge. And then the second question is on your brokerage business, which confirmed to be very, very strong, in particular, your January estimated revenues at EUR 19 million are slightly higher than the average of 2021. So I was wondering if you expect brokerage revenues to be higher than last year in the current year.

Yes. So the most significant opportunity, I'd like to summarize with the concept that is the structural trends in our favor are massively reinforcing. So I'm coming back to the concept. So the fact that we -- now everybody is now completely convinced that the future is in a much more digitized world. Clearly, we built this bank 20 years ago exactly for this kind of world. And now -- and so this is going to -- and we have a huge advantage in terms of learning core internal culture, infrastructures and so on. And so this is going to be a massive opportunity for us. And the main challenge, in my opinion, is mostly just internal. So the biggest challenge we have that on one hand, we have to keep on remaining an extremely disruptive and fast changing and innovative institution and, at the same time, being a very large and systemic player. And so we have to keep on balance the [ 2 souls ]. So this is the main challenge, but it's just internally. I'm fully confident that we are going to be able to find the right balance. On the brokerage, yes, we confirm that we -- brokerage, we -- as you all know, Elena, brokerage is by definition the least predictable part of the business because volatility is playing a role. But considering that last year, that has been a relatively disappointing year for brokerage because volatility has been extremely low. Nevertheless, we delivered absolutely good results, much higher and stronger than in the past. Considering now we are back in, let me say, a more normal world and so on, I'm fully convinced that the brokerage this year is going to deliver higher results with respect to last year, yes.

The next question is from Angeliki Bairaktari with Autonomous Research.

First of all, on the EUR 4 million other commission revenue that you booked, could you please give us a bit more detail? You mentioned that this relates to efficiencies at FAM, but can you perhaps explain to us what are those fees exactly that you have to book every time in Q4? Are they sort of the margins on sub-advisory mandates, on the institutional subclasses? I'm not sure I fully understand the mechanics on that. Second question, could you give us a bit more information on the launch of the new brokerage platform that you mentioned during the call and what is changing there exactly? And last question, is there a level of BTP yields above which you think retail customers in Italy could consider moving out of assets under management and back into government bonds?

Yes. So I'm on -- I'm trying to give you a little bit more visibility on the other commissions without boring everybody with technical details. So we practically is the Fineco Asset Management Funds. Clearly, you have a certain amount of cost that if you go throughout the prospectus, there is a certain amount of operational costs that they are expected to be charged on the fund. It's clear that if at the year-end you are mainly -- thanks to the economy of scale because the more you are growing in your business and the more you have the opportunity to make what you're doing more efficient -- and so you are able to spend less. This -- clearly this is recovered as other commissions because [ I respect ] what is expected to be charged to the funds, so we are spending less because we are more efficient. So this is the very simple reason. And clearly, the final calculations are done at the year-end. And considering that we have an absolutely reasonable expectations to keep on growing, we expect that this is not going to be a one-off, but this is going to be a recurring component of the business. So I don't know if we've been able to give you a little bit more clarity on the point. But if this is not the case, we can -- and regarding the.

Can I just -- one confirmation on that point. If I understand then, the bigger Fineco Asset Management becomes, the bigger this component of savings that effectively, you haven't spent during the year should get, right? So not only should it be recurring, but it could also be increasing year-on-year?

Yes, theoretically, yes, but we prefer to be conservative. So let's take this because it's much -- it's not a one-off, it's recurring, and there is theoretically room for having even higher margin. But so we -- so yes. And on the new brokerage platform, I would leave the floor to Paolo. Paolo Di Grazia is directly -- is the developing, and is the mastermind behind what we think is going to be a quite, again, innovative and disruptive platform in the market. So please, Paolo, in a few words, you can transfer the -- cost that the risk behind the platform -- without entering in too much technical details.

Absolutely, yes, definitely. So the main -- the first point is that we're going to use a new technology. We're going to use HTML5, which is much, much more usable than the usual platform. In the new platform, we replaced the Power Desk platform, which is the platform for the top end clients. And it's going to be much more usable. It's going to be a Pro platform but made it very, very easy also for active investors. So it's something you will see a massive improvement in customization of the platform, massive improvements in the charting tools, the trading tools, the search engine. Basically, is a new world. It's a brand-new platform, brand-new technology, a lot much, much easier. And we're going to -- also to give the platform for free for everybody. And now for Power Desk, the clients are paying a fee, a monthly fee. We decided to give the platform for free. So it's going to be a massive change, a massive improvement in the brokerage business. And then we're also adding the demo mode on the platform. So basically, it's going to be quite strong also tools in marketing. We're going to allow potential clients to sign up for the platform and just use it in a demo mode and this is going to give us big opportunities to develop new customers and potential customers that are using the platform in the demo mode.

And Paolo, correct me if I'm wrong, if we want to summarize, practically, we are going to give an experience that is a professional experience for clients and easiness in the usage that is affordable also for absolutely basic clients. So because usually in the markets, you have professional platforms but they are really clearly cumbersome and complex to be used or easy-to-use platform, but they are very basic. And so this is going to be a combination of very easy approach, but the same thing incredibly professional.

Basically, yes, that's totally true. We're going to give the possibility to -- for our clients to choose among different setting of the platform, preset platform, preset screens or even customize everything, basically everything from the size of the phone, the color, the size of the screen, the windows, everything. So if you want an easy setting, it's very easy to just click and you choose the easy setting. If you want to customize in the most complex way, you can do it. That's -- I think it's the beauty of the new platform.

Regarding the last questions on the BTP yields and the possible impact on -- it's not a BTP yield that is going to change. What tends to change the appetite of clients in moving an asset under management is a sharp move in short-term interest rates. So for example, we are usually based on our sensitivity and experience of the past. Usually, when you have short-term interest rates rising, for example, above 200, between 200 and 300 basis points, this tends to be in a level of interest rates that you can expect in changing some of the habits of clients. But clearly, considering our business model, that we have our absolutely powerful transactional banking platform. Clearly, if tomorrow morning, we have short-term interest rates going up to, I don't know, 2%, 3%. Fine, we can expect to have a modest slowdown in the investing business, but we are going to make a real fortune on the net interest income side, for example. So clearly -- but the -- what is moving the client's habit is -- are the short-term interest rates.

The next question is from Filippo Prini with Kepler.

I got 3 questions, if I may. The first one is on your guidance on your production mortgages. I've seen that is twice as lower the -- what the production of last year. So it's just a matter of an increase of interest rate or maybe also your internal decision. The second is on January inflows. You collected only EUR 4 million on deposit. Just to understand if it's just the monthly effect of January or the first effect of all the initiatives we have put in place to reduce the excess of liquidity on current account of your customers? And finally, getting back for a second [indiscernible] increase of interest rate. I appreciate that it could be massive and very positive for the banking revenues. But could you somehow at least give an indication or what could be the impact on the value of the asset management from an increase of this 100 bps of interest rates?

On the mortgage guidance, it's just we are keeping an account of the fact that we -- as usual, on the mortgage businesses, business banks -- traditional banks are extremely reluctant in adjusting the pricing of mortgages currently with what's going on in the market. And so the results that we are running through definitely an unprofitable business, and we are not interested in doing that. And so clearly, considering that -- and so we are progressively adjusting the pricing. We are charging on mortgages currently with the direction of interest rates. And so for this reason, considering that there is a reluctancy by traditional banks in adjusting the pricing, we expect probably to have clients moving in direction of other banks. But as we explained, for us, residential mortgages is not -- is an ancillary business that we are providing just for fulfilling the full range of needs of our clients. We are going to keep on -- just keeping on dedicated pricing for the best clients. For example, for our best private banking clients, we are going to use a more benign approach on pricing. But overall, we expect to decrease the production because the traditional banks are going to keep on offering rates that they are not current with the market conditions. So -- and on the deposits of January, yes, clearly, we have -- there is a structural -- so that -- January has been a quite complex month because we know that, first of all, in terms of calendar has not been favorable, because we had the end December that has been characterized by the possibility of potential planners of working until the last day of the year. And on the contrary, they closed the calendar, they returned to their job practically after the 10th of January. So -- and when they returned to their desk, they found that there's a big correction underway. So this has been quite complex from that point of view. So the result has been a mix in which we have been quite -- we are quite happy with the performance of the -- on the investing side because considering the very few number of days in which they are working. The big correction in the market, the results has been absolutely very good. At the same time, clearly, as usual, when you have big market corrections, you have also the assets under custody tends to be quite large because the brokerage clients, they tend to act as a contrarian. So when the market is going down, they're buying and when the market is going up, they're selling. So this tends to -- but overall, clearly, the reason in the client acquisitions and so on, the new initiatives we put in place are making the new clients joining the bank much more skewed in direction of using the investing services and the brokerage services. And so we can say that is a confirmation that we -- what we put in place for keeping under control, the balance sheet is definitely working. And on the sensitivity on net interest income, what impact on the value of asset management? There is no real impact on the value of asset management. So the only real impact is represented by -- we have -- so if we have rising interest rates, clearly, their impact can be represented if you have a market that is going down. But as we -- we explained in the guidance we gave on the investing revenues and fees, we have considered the negative market effect that has been caused by the January correction. So we have on -- every EUR 1 billion of reduction of our asset under management is worth EUR 7 million of commissions on a pro rata basis. So if this is happening at the beginning of the year, clearly -- if this is happening at the middle of the year is half, but -- so we don't see any -- a great correlation between what's going on, on the net interest income and on assets under management. I don't know if I've been able -- if I addressed correctly your questions or?

No, no, that's the point.

[Operator Instructions] Mr. Foti there are no more questions registered at this time.

Thank you very much for all -- for all very interesting questions. As usual, if you need to make some more deep dive in our numbers and guidance and points, please make us a call, we can arrange a follow-up anytime. Thank you again.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over, and you may disconnect your telephones.