First Abu Dhabi Bank P.J.S.C. (FAB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

October 19, 2023

Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange AE Financials earnings 54 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Hello, and welcome to the First Abu Dhabi Bank Q3 2023 Results Call. My name is Alex. I'll be coordinating the call today. [Operator Instructions] Please note, the media are not allowed to participate on this call. This call is for investors and analysts only. I'll now hand it over to your host, Sofia El Boury, to begin. Please go ahead.

Sofia El Boury

executive
#2

Thank you, Alex. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today in order to review FAB's financial performance for the third quarter and first 9 months of 2023. Group results were announced this morning premarket, and all our disclosures are currently available on the dedicated IR section of our corporate website as well as on the IR app. Today's call is hosted by our senior management team, represented by our group Chief Financial Officer, Lars Kramer; our Group Chief Risk Officer, Pradeep Rana; and our acting Group Chief Credit Officer, Rajesh Deshpande. They will all be here to answer your questions at the end of the short presentation. So without further ado, I will now pass it on to Lars for the presentation.

Lars Kramer

executive
#3

Thanks, Sofia. Good afternoon, good morning, everyone. Welcome to all the analysts and investors tuning into our call today. On behalf of the Board and senior management, I'm very pleased to present FAB's financial results for the third quarter and first 9 months of 2023, which were announced earlier this morning. I'll go through the slides of the investor deck fairly quickly to allow more time for Q&A. And Pradeep, our CRO, will join me for that. So turning to the first slide in the earnings presentation. Building on very strong momentum in the first half of 2023, FAB delivered another record performance in the third quarter. The Q3 '23 net profit was AED 4.3 billion, which was up 46% year-on-year and 1% sequentially. This brings the 9 months '23 net profits to AED 12.4 billion, which is up 58% year-on-year on an underlying basis, implying a RoTE of 18.3%. This record performance clearly demonstrates solid progress against the group's growth strategy and it further emphasizes FAB's status as the region's financial institution of choice and a facilitator of global trade and investments. Strong business volumes, revenue expansion and continued cost and risk discipline all contributed to these results, while the operating backdrop remained favorable and continue to represent a tailwind for us. Commercial momentum was very healthy during the period with customer deposits up at 12% year-to-date, which is an inflow of AED 85 billion, and it includes AED 55 billion of growth in CASA balances. Although marginally down sequentially due to repayments, loans are still up 4% year-to-date, and this was in line with our full year guidance and underlining market share gains in key segments, accelerated customer onboarding as well as acquisitions. Revenue grew 38% year-on-year from diversified sources. Both the NII and NFI recorded double-digit growth with noninterest income now contributing 35% to group revenue, which is up 33% from the 33% in the prior comparative period. And this is demonstrating the benefits of our diversified franchise. The group presents outstanding operating efficiency with a cost-to-income ratio of 25.4%, and this is notably improving from 30.9% in the 9 months last year and on the back of positive jaws. Our asset quality remained very strong with our NPL ratio still below 4% and with adequate provision buffers well above guidance. The group operates from a rock solid balance sheet foundation with LCR and NSFR comfortably above regulatory requirements and group CET1 reaching 14.2%, underlining strong capital accretion year-to-date. Last, but not least, in 2023, FAB's AA- credit rating or its equivalent was affirmed by all major rating agencies, most recently by Fitch with a stable outlook. This is the strongest combined credit rating of any other bank in MENA and for us, a key differentiating factor underpinning the group's structural strength and resilience through all cycles. Turning to the next slide, showing the net profit bridge year-on-year for the first 9 months of 2023. First 9 months net profit was AED 12.4 billion, which is up 58% year-on-year or AED 4.5 billion when excluding the AED 33.1 billion gain on the sale of majority stake in Magnati, which was booked in the first half of 2022. This was primarily driven by core revenue growth of AED 5.6 billion, consisting of 34% year-on-year growth in NII or AED 3.4 billion, helped by strong volume growth, improved margins and benefits from higher benchmark rates. And then also a 46% year-on-year growth in noninterest income or AED 2.2 billion, driven by higher market-related income, increased client activity and sales across FX derivatives and commodities as well as a healthy pickup in fees and commissions, reflecting solid pipeline execution across our fee-generating businesses. This was partly offset by higher operating costs and with continued investments in talent and transformation, and higher impairment charges year-on-year reflecting prudent provisioning. The uptick in taxes mainly reflect growth in international profits. Moving to the third quarter on the next slide. Net profit for third quarter of 2023 was AED 4.3 billion, which was another quarterly record for the group on an underlying basis, it was up 46% year-on-year and 1% sequentially. With regards to the year-on-year trend on the left-hand side of the slide, the bottom line growth of AED 1.38 billion was driven by strong revenue momentum through both higher NII and noninterest income as well as lower impairment charges and partially offset by higher costs and tax. Looking at the quarter-on-quarter bridge on the right-hand side of this page. The net profit growth of 1% sequentially or AED 44 million was mostly driven again by higher NII in light of the recent Fed rate hikes, a more moderate uptick in NFI as well as lower impairment charges due to recoveries. This was again partly offset by higher OpEx, reflecting ongoing investments and higher taxes. On the next slide, we're looking at the underlying operating performance by business segments. We continue to see broad-based revenue and balance sheet growth across all business lines, which once again demonstrates the quality and benefits of our diversified business model. If we look at investment banking, the revenue grew by 45% year-on-year, and it's contributing 43% to group revenue over the first 9 months. This was driven by strong deal pipeline execution across various areas of the business, also new client relationships onboarded and consistent growth in CASA balances. We also benefit from higher benchmark rates and a strong global markets performance. Customer loans and deposits were up 4% and 12% on a year-to-date basis, respectively, again underlining a very strong liquidity position. In the first 9 months, FAB continued to dominate several MENA investment banking league tables, being #1 loan book runner, #1 agent and #1 MENA bank for DCM. And we remain a key player and driver of -- in buoyant capital markets, and we've also received an award as the Best Investment Bank of the Year for the Middle East as supported by the Banker's Investment Banking Awards in 2023. The corporate and commercial banking, revenue was up 51% year-on-year, contributing 25% to group revenue. This was helped by higher interest rates and new cash management mandates in global transaction banking, feeding into higher NII, partially offset by lower fees due to stronger loan origination in the prior year period. Loans and deposits were up 4% and 6%, respectively, and this was driven by new customer acquisitions and increased trade finance activity. Corporate and commercial banking continues to focus on delivering innovative products and sophisticated solutions to both corporate and commercial clients across our core markets and also in various strategic areas. This includes supply chain finance, trade finance as well as payment solutions used in blockchain. In consumer banking, revenue grew 2% year-on-year, contributing 14% of group revenue, and this was driven by solid growth in fees and commissions from especially credit cards and higher spending. This was partially offset by lower NII primarily due to the rollouts of various strategic initiatives to attract new customers through CASA sales and offering bundled product propositions. These initiatives delivered very strong results during the period as evidenced through a 74% growth in new-to-bank customers in the first 9 months compared to the same period in 2022, which translates into greater than 240,000 new customers versus 140,000 in the same period last year. Consumer lending is up 6% year-to-date, while retail deposits saw a robust 26% uptick or AED 17 billion growth as a result of strong CASA acquisitions and the growth in the primary relationships that we're targeting. Private banking revenue grew by 16% year-on-year, and this is primarily attributed to a significant increase in fee income driven by sustained growth of assets under management and net new money from client acquisitions. A lot of new investment products and successful partnerships with leading institutions also gives clients a broader range of products to choose from. Looking at the revenue split by geography. The revenue from domestic operations grew by 39%, while revenue from international operations grew by 32%, contributing 19% to overall group operating income. Moving to the next slide and looking at -- the group presents a rock-solid balance sheet, underpinned by very strong liquidity profile. The total assets are up 7% year-to-date to just under AED 1.2 trillion as of September end, which translates into about USD 323 billion. And group LCR stands comfortably above regulatory requirements at 146%, underlining very strong liquidity for the bank. We saw AED 85 billion of customer deposit inflows during the 9 months from diversified sources as well as diversified geographies, including a AED 55 billion growth in CASA balances, emphasizing FAB's role as an aggregator of both regional and international liquidity. In the third quarter, customer deposits grew AED 40 billion to AED 785 billion, almost equally stemming from CASA at AED 19 billion quarter-on-quarter as well as term deposits of AED 21 billion quarter-on-quarter. As mentioned before, this increase is the result of the strong performance in cash management, as well as the rollout of strategic initiatives to grow primary relationships as well as retail CASA. We continued to effectively deploy liquidity to enhance group returns and to support our clients. Cash and central bank placements grew AED 40 billion year-to-date, primarily as a result of the excess liquidity. And loans grew AED 19 billion on a net basis year-to-date. Sequentially, the loan book was marginally down by AED 4 billion, primarily due to new drawdowns, which were offset by repayments during the quarter. This can be attributed to various factors, including the health and liquidity position of some of our clients who are looking to deleverage in light of the high oil prices as well as the rotation to the bond markets and in some cases, clients prepaying and willing to refinance at lower rates in the future. On the wholesale funding side, it's worth noting that FAB raised AED 7.8 billion of senior wholesale funding. This is an equivalent of about USD 2.1 billion in the first 9 months of the year. We continue to focus on our green and sustainable-linked funding activities by issuing two public green transactions including a AED 1.3 billion Sukuk in July, which was the group's first ever dirham-denominated Green issuance. And during this period, the group also issued a $1 billion Tier 2 bond to further strengthen already robust capital buffers. This issuance achieved the tightest spread of any Tier 2 issuance globally in '23, which is a firm testament to our outstanding credit profile. Turning to the next slide and looking at NIM and NII. The consistent upward NII trajectory you see on the main chart clearly reflects the benefits of Fed rate hikes coming through as well as business growth. In the first 9 months of '23, NII is 34% up year-on-year to AED 13.4 billion. Also, in the 9 months of '23, group NIM widened 20 basis points year-on-year to 1.76%, mainly on the back of rate hike benefits, which are partially offset by the dilutive impact of higher Central Bank placements. As you're aware, the mathematic calculation of the NIM is sensitive to these movements in excess liquidity placed with central banks. And excluding this activity, our group NIM for the first 9 months would stand at around 2.3%. You would have also noticed that the group NIM has been restated this quarter. Although this does not have a material impact, we have reassessed the accounting treatment of our investment portfolio underlining the accounting of certain positions to better reflect the economics. The change has been made retrospectively and there are some further notes on this in Note 32 of the financial statements. The Q3 '23 NIM stands at 1.81%, which is up 8 basis points sequentially. And in terms of outlook, we would expect full year '23 NIM to expand by 15 to 20 basis points year-on-year and on the basis that Fed rates would remain flat by the year-end. Turning to the next slide and looking at NFI. The group presents a robust product platform and a diversified business model, enabling us to deepen our client relationships and to generate revenue from multiple sources. The noninterest income grew 46% year-on-year in the first 9 months contributing 35% to group revenue. And looking at the key drivers, group FX and investment income was up 81% year-on-year to AED 4.7 billion and up 6% sequentially in Q3. And this was driven by healthy sales and trading performance and increased client activity across FX derivatives and commodities. You can see that in 2023, we produced roughly AED 1.5 billion of that revenue stream every quarter, which is a step-up from the previous year. Although there's market components, this is also driven by the positive momentum we are generating in global markets across our various products and when dealing with our customers. On the bottom right-hand side of the slide, you can see that the fees and commissions are up 8% over last year's comparison period. What is interesting to note here is that this growth was primarily driven by other fees and commissions, which were up 57% year-on-year and contributing 25% to the total fee mix, and this is compared to 18% in the prior period last year. This primarily reflects higher investment banking fees and deal pipeline execution in a relatively dynamic regional capital market landscape. Improvement in our fee mix should continue in line with our strategic focus, which is on deepening client relationships and in strengthening our fee generation capabilities. On the next slide, looking at the OpEx trend, you can see that the 9 months current year OpEx was up 11%, demonstrating the continued investment in talent, also in our systems and technology as well as to drive our business growth and to create future efficiencies. The group delivered positive jaws with 9-month '23 cost/income ratio improving to 25.4%. And this is helped by revenue growth, especially, and it is against 30.9% cost-income ratio, excluding the Magnati gains of last year. Sequentially, OpEx was up 4% with our continued investment in talent and transformation. On the next slide, you can see that the group's asset quality remains strong, and this is despite the higher interest rate environment. Impairment charges for the first 9 months stood at AED 2.1 billion, which is up 20% year-on-year. Looking at the sequential trends, impairment charges in Q3 were actually lower quarter-on-quarter due to higher recoveries during the period with AED 154 million of recoveries into Q3 versus AED 95 million in Q2. Although annualized cost of risk is currently well below guidance at 57 bps versus the -- less than 80 bps that we've guided, we remain cautious in the context of lingering global uncertainties and a higher for longer interest rate environment. NPLs were AED 19.2 billion as of September end, and this is compared to AED 18.4 billion, the previous quarter. The increase was mainly due to a few corporate downgrades in our international book. Otherwise, NPL formation remained relatively subdued during the period with no signs of early stress in particular sectors within the portfolio. Provision coverage is adequate and well above our guidance of 97% as we continue our prudent approach towards provisioning. Turning to the next slide and looking at capital ratios and CET1 progression. The capital accretion year-to-date was very strong with CET1 adding 160 basis points year-to-date from 12.6% in December '22 to 14.2% as of September end 2023, which is well above guidance. During the third quarter, CET1 was up 60 basis points, driven by higher retained earnings and partially offset by balance sheet growth and other movements. Risk-weighted assets stood at AED 586 billion, only showing moderate year-to-date growth of 2% or AED 14 billion, and this is versus a 7% growth in assets of AED 76 billion. And on the next slide, just to cover the financial guidance, and our financial guidance for the full year in 2023 remains unchanged. And we're tracking in line or well ahead of all key metrics as of September end. In terms of outlook, we remain cautiously optimistic in light of heightened global uncertainty, and the higher-for-longer interest rate environment. But having said that, we still remain confident about the longer-term outlook for the region, underpinned by strong GDP formation, continued reforms as well as recent economic developments which are further bolstering the region's role as a strategic enabler for global trade and investments. Our diversified business model, our balance sheet strength and our financial resilience are enduring points of differentiation for our stakeholders. We are quite confident in our ability to navigate challenges with our resilience and adaptability as well as to execute on our strategic priorities and to deliver sustainable shareholder returns. Last, but not least, we can't end the presentation without actually mentioning the flagship event of the year. We look forward to showcasing our leadership in the area of sustainability at the upcoming COP28 Forum, which will be hosted in the UAE at the end of November. As a regional pace setter for sustainability, FAB has been selected as a strategic pathway partner of COP28, and we've recently released a 6-point agenda, focusing on several strategic areas, which will enable us to meaningfully contribute to a more sustainable future for all. It's worth highlighting that the group's progress in the area of sustainable finance where FAB has facilitated over USD 27 billion worth of sustainable projects since 2022, which we use as our baseline year. And this means that we've already achieved 36% of our 2030 targets of USD 75 billion in just less than 2 years. And this speaks to our market-leading capabilities and the accelerated momentum that we're witnessing in this space across the region. Just to wrap up and before we move into Q&A, I'd just like to emphasize again that we're very happy that we've produced another record results for the 9 months of '23, and this is really underpinned by our excellent progress against our strategic priorities, that our rock-solid balance sheet foundation, our superior credit rating of AA-, our diversified franchise across businesses as well as products and geographies and these are among the differentiated positions of strength and help us to navigate the evolving environment and to showcase the resilience that we have as an institution through all cycles. In short, FAB remains ideally positioned to deliver strong earnings in 2023 and beyond, and we continue to be laser-focused on delivering sustainable shareholder returns. So with that, we can move to Q&A.

Operator

operator
#4

[Operator Instructions] Our first question for today comes from Waleed Mohsin of Goldman Sachs.

Waleed Mohsin

analyst
#5

Three questions, please, from my side. First, if you look at the year-to-date lending, much of the growth is coming from lending to banks or lending to FIs. I just wanted to understand the strategy over here, how profitable is this lending? And is this lending is mostly to regional or international banks? So any color on that will be extremely helpful. Secondly, if we look at your NPL stock, you briefly touched upon it, it increased because of international exposures. If you could kindly talk about which sectors in the international book are driving this? Is this FI? And then if you could also talk about the drop in provision coverage, there's a small drop this quarter. And my third and final question is on the buildup of capital, which has been quite significant. You are sitting well above your target for this year. So the excess capital, should we think of this as an opportunity for the bank to pay a higher dividend? Or is this capital set aside for inorganic growth?

Lars Kramer

executive
#6

So I'll try and take questions 1 and 3, and Pradeep can take your question on NPL and coverage. In terms of the lending, on a net basis, you do see some sort of sequential deterioration in terms of the overall book. But I think as we were speaking last quarter, this is something that we were expecting in terms of a lot of cash formation on the back of higher oil prices. And we already started seeing a bit of that deleveraging, that cash being used to deleverage by, especially some of the bigger government-related entities. So when we then look at where we see formation in terms of lending, we obviously have some trade finance, which is a portion of the growth in lending as well as from the banks. It's a bit of a broad-based internationally. I mean, we do try and keep our books reasonably well diversified and also to protect our asset quality and going against higher ratings. We, I would say, on a gross basis, are seeing demand and we're seeing good loan formation still and pipeline. But clearly, with the size of the balance sheet that we're running and the size of some of the bigger positions, any sort of paybacks from the global -- or the government-related entities can have quite a significant impact on the net basis. But underlying, there is still a healthy business. Now, of course, we are in an environment of higher rates. We are in a more unstable environment, both macro and politically. And this is something that we're therefore watching going through into the next quarter and beyond. You asked about capital and I would say here, yes, it's been very good capital formation. As I've said in previous calls, we take a view on dividends at the end of the year. We will reflect on what our strategic sort of growth looks like next year, what GDP expectations are at the moment. They look pretty good. I think that we are now still looking at next year at about 4.2% of GDP growth. So we expect multiples of that. So really, I would look more at any capital formation, we will look at, how we can support organic growth and potentially if there are any sort of regulatory changes as well as if we have what we see evolving in the fourth quarter in terms of environment and -- yes, business environment. But maybe, Pradeep, you can say something about the NPLs and the coverage.

Pradeep Rana

executive
#7

Yes, sure. Just to shed some lights on the NPL increase during the quarter. The NPL ratio declined to 3.9% from 3.7% the previous quarter. The flow was largely due to some real estate lease facilities, followed by some general flow in the consumer banking sector through credit card and PI and personal loans. With respect to the provision coverage, the total provision coverage is at 97%. It's stable and above our guidance of 90%. It has dropped marginally due to new deal flows and certain write-offs on fully provided accounts during the quarter. We do expect total provision coverage ratio to remain above 90% underlining our starts to maintain adequate provisions on the noncore earning assets.

Waleed Mohsin

analyst
#8

Perfect. That's very clear. Just one follow-up, if I could. Just on loan growth. Lars, on your comments around, obviously, cash generation in the economy, and we can see it in terms of the public sector being in a very healthy state. Do you think that presents downside to your kind of growth expectations for this year or the year after? I know you've not communicated guidance for next year. But is that something which will go downside risk? Are you comfortable with the pipeline that you have between FIs and the private sector?

Lars Kramer

executive
#9

Yes. I think we're not giving guidance on the sort of GDP growth in terms of how we are going to see this evolve. But at the moment, we are still pretty comfortable. So again, let's have a look at how the fourth quarter evolves also in the light of the context that we're living in. So we are cautiously optimistic. I think that's the phrase I used in terms of also the future. But again, this is something that will evolve.

Operator

operator
#10

Our next question comes from Naresh Bilandani of JPMorgan.

Naresh Bilandani

analyst
#11

It's Naresh Bilandani from JPMorgan. I have two questions, please. One is, I'd be keen to get some insight into the sizable gains that you have booked on the FVTPL portfolio. It would be very helpful for us if you can please explain what is the type of the risk that you are taking to achieve these gains? And how should we think of gains on these lines on a more sustainable basis? In some sense, if you can throw some light on how much of this income is coming from flow versus prop business, that would be very helpful. That's one. And second is, I'm just keen to understand the reasoning behind the lack of change in the cost of risk despite year-to-date run rate being much below the guidance. So can you please just explain what scenario are you building in to maintain this elevated cost of risk? And what in your view should be a realistic level that could potentially be achieved by the year-end?

Lars Kramer

executive
#12

So maybe, Pradeep, do you want to take the cost of risk?

Pradeep Rana

executive
#13

Yes. Sure. On the cost of risk, I mean, obviously, I think that the world we're in right now, I think, is very different than where it was a few weeks ago. I think with the heightened geopolitical tensions, our view is that if this is prolonged, this could potentially hurt global growth, number one. Obviously, if there are some disruptions to the energy supply chain, that could hit inflation and also, the trajectory of interest rates between now and the end of the year and also for 2024 as well. Look, I mean, we continue to maintain a very conservative guidance of 80 basis points due to the potential deterioration in the credit cycle and also due to the geopolitical landscape and also the volatility in the macroeconomic environment. So that's the reason why we are continuing with our conservative stance of 80 basis points because we do feel that between now and the end of the year, there are certain risks.

Naresh Bilandani

analyst
#14

If I may please follow up Pradeep, the below 80 bps -- sorry for the interruption, Lars, but I'm just keen to understand because the below 80 bps cost of risk guidance was set at the start of the year and that kind of has been maintained. And the reason sort of like the geopolitical risk that has evolved, that's very recent. So I'm just trying to understand sort of like the scenario in which such an elevated cost of risk plays out into the next 2 months.

Pradeep Rana

executive
#15

Yes. Let me explain that. I think we were having internal discussions around this in terms of should this be revised, especially with what the recent events which have happened, that's the reason why we've taken the decision is to keep our guidance at 80.

Lars Kramer

executive
#16

Just coming at your fair value through P&L question. I mean, materially, the bulk of our investment portfolio is actually booked on an AFS basis, right? So we've got about 80%. And it's only about 20% of the book that's actually going through P&L. And it's not such a material number. I think on a year-to-date basis, it's around about AED 150 million. So I don't think that this is something that is significantly driving the results. I mean, we've seen, obviously, with volatility in rates. Even here, the book is actually from an interest rate perspective hedged. And we have some credit spreads playing out, but this is very much more running through AFS reserves. So the fair value through P&L really is not that significant piece of the book.

Naresh Bilandani

analyst
#17

But the gain that you have booked in the -- in this line, in the investments and derivatives line, then what is -- could you please tell me what is driving the sizable gain then?

Lars Kramer

executive
#18

Yes.

Naresh Bilandani

analyst
#19

Because I have a number of AED 1.36 billion here, yes.

Lars Kramer

executive
#20

This is something where -- that we have been driving in terms of also our global market activities, really being very focused on FX and derivatives and commodities and building out our customer relationships. And I think, here, large bulk of what's happening there is that rather than prop trading.

Naresh Bilandani

analyst
#21

Okay. And is this number -- like how should we think of the sustainability number? Because I think the key beat to the consensus is largely being driven by this line, where I think the broader investment community doesn't have like real visibility on how should we be forecasting this line. So is there any thoughts that you can share on this, please?

Lars Kramer

executive
#22

Yes. I think we talked about this also in the last quarter where we said in terms of us diversifying our business, maturing our business, whether it's in investment bank, global markets, wherever, here, we actually are, therefore, expecting to see more repeatability of even a line item like this. In terms of the AED 1.5 billion that we're seeing, this is -- and we talked last quarter about potentially sort of 50% or 60% repeatability. So that's what we're trying to drive at. I mean, there will always be some volatility, clearly, but we're trying to more and more have the recurring parts maturing and developing.

Operator

operator
#23

Our next question comes from Aybek Islamov from HSBC.

Aybek Islamov

analyst
#24

Yes. Apologies. I was on mute, yes. So thank you for the conference call. Some of my questions have been answered, but I would like to focus a little bit on the investment income one more time. So when we look at your securities composition, you have almost AED 40 billion in bond portfolio, which has held at fair value through income statement. With the bond yield rising so much towards the end of the third quarter, it is still surprising to see these investment gains in your P&L. Like -- so if I may kind of put the question the way, under what circumstances do you expect to see investment losses, right? Is it when the yields fall? Some more color would be helpful here. But also a follow-on question is, what percentage of your gains that you booked in the P&L, this time, what percentage is in cash versus noncash? Can you explain that to us as well. That would be very helpful. And then the second question is about your loan growth. So in the third quarter, it looks like your public sector loan exposure -- loan book dropped a little bit, so sequentially. So what does it mean? What's driving that drop in your public sector loans? And what should we expect going forward?

Lars Kramer

executive
#25

So I think on the investment portfolio again, in terms of -- we clearly have three ways of booking and some of it is through P&L. The bulk of it is AFS, which runs through OCI. And then we have a very small piece of held to maturity, which is really only about AED 4 billion of the overall. Now if your question is how much of that unrecognized mark-to-market are we sitting on, then it is really -- it's about AED 300 million worth on that portfolio of held to maturity. In terms of the AFS and the sensitivity of this, and we do materially hedge for interest rate movements. So really where you're going to see impacts are from credit spread movements. I think that's what drives it. That's very much the case for what we have under AFS as well as fair value through P&L. The question on loans, I think I answered it under Waleed where -- what we have been seeing, and this is something we started seeing in Q2, and we're continuing to see it in Q3, is effectively the large entities that are sitting on a lot of cash, utilizing that cash to deleverage. I would expect at some point that, that utilization will stop. And that's why also for next year, maybe for this year, you do still see -- and you see that also in our loan guidance being maintained at mid-single digits. But for next year, we would expect the deleveraging to have played its way out and for us to get back into more of a normal cycle of growth related to GDP.

Operator

operator
#26

Our next question comes from Olga Veselova from Bank of America.

Olga Veselova

analyst
#27

I have several questions today. My first question is on effective tax rate. I think we discussed it during previous calls, but could you please update us what is active rate, tax rate, shall we assume for 2024? And do you see risks that this effective rate will go up in 2025? My second question is on your lending maturity. I think in your full year results, not in quarterly, but in annual results, the bank disclosed its contractual maturity of the balance sheet. We noticed that 68% of loans have less than 3 months maturity. Can you maybe comment on that? And I noticed that Interbank is not part of this loan book. So why do you think maturity is so short? And my third question is on cross-border syndicated loans. Do you provide cross-border syndicated loans to Saudi banks? And how efficient is cross-border interbank market? If you do provide, could you please guide us on the level of market pricing of this type of product?

Lars Kramer

executive
#28

Yes. So on the tax rate, we are expecting a tax rate of 9% for 2024 and therefore, the effective tax rate will stay materially flat. It's a bit what happens after 2024. If things start moving more to a minimum tax rate of 15%, then you may start seeing a bit of an increase in the effective tax rate. And on the contractual maturity, maybe this is something we may need to come back to you on because my understanding in terms of our own contractual maturities is we're running at sort of somewhere between 4 and 4.5 years. So if you're saying this is in our full year disclosures then it may just be that we're looking at trade finance stuff. So in terms of trade finance, those have a sort of 3 to 6 months maturity. And I mean, that number, if I just do a quick referral to the disclosure, I think it's -- we have AED 67 billion in that space out of the total loan book of about AED 430 billion or AED 450 billion. On the syndicated loans?

Pradeep Rana

executive
#29

Yes, yes. I mean, I can take that. Obviously, we do have a full branch operation in Saudi. It is a growth market for us. So to answer your question, yes, we do, do cross-border syndicated loans with Saudi banks and with other Saudi entities.

Olga Veselova

analyst
#30

Can I just clarify on the first question. Shall we assume 9% on top of what you already paid? And tax-only local income. So it will be additional 9% to what you already have in financials? And then you mentioned 15% in 2025. How -- so what are the chances? Can you give your best guess about the effective rate going to 15%?

Lars Kramer

executive
#31

I think in terms of the go forward beyond 2024, we still have to wait a bit for the tax authorities to give us clarity. So I can't prognosticate on chances. In terms of the -- if you just repeat your first question?

Olga Veselova

analyst
#32

Yes. So the 9% effective tax rate for 2024, do you mean that this will come on top of what you already pay now outside of UAE? Is this correct?

Lars Kramer

executive
#33

Because this is a 9% tax on UAE, which is at 0% today, so yes.

Olga Veselova

analyst
#34

Right. Okay. So that's clear. If I may squeeze in one more question. Can you comment on the Standard Chartered deal? Is it -- does it go ahead? Have you definitely moved away from it? Any comments on that one?

Lars Kramer

executive
#35

I mean we -- again, we don't comment on any of these deals, but you've also seen there's been no news flow. So I'll just leave it at that.

Operator

operator
#36

Our next question comes from Shabbir Malik from EFG Hermes.

Shabbir Malik

analyst
#37

I have a question on cost of risk. Given your credit risk profile, and if we exclude some of the geopolitical risk, do you think that your long-term cost of risk could settle much -- at a much lower level, let's say, like 30 to 40 basis points given that a large part of your lending book is the investment bank, which is government-related entities, et cetera? My second question, I guess you've talked about your capital distribution -- a bit about capital distribution. But we see, last year, payout ratio has been between 40% to 50%. For modeling purposes, do you think that's a safe kind of a range to factor into our forecast? And finally, you've talked a great deal about global markets and how that is lifting your noninterest income. But broadly speaking, do you see a secular uptrend in non-funded income? And what other examples perhaps are you more excited about?

Pradeep Rana

executive
#38

This is Pradeep. With your question with respect to [indiscernible] around the geopolitical risk. And I think if we were to look at this through the cycle, I think we are -- I mean, it also give you a figure, I think we are talking anywhere between a range of 50 to 60 basis points.

Lars Kramer

executive
#39

Okay. And then in terms of the dividend payout ratio, I mean I have stated a few times that we don't have a formal dividend policy payout ratio that we publicize. This really is something that we do look at the end of the year. So I'm not going to give a range at the moment. You have seen that we have been high payers in the past. So let's come back on this one when we publish year-end results. In terms of the bond funds interest or non-funds income, for us, strategically, this really is something that we are trying to build out, and it's across all of our business lines and global markets is just one of those. We do have the regional expertise in the global markets. We are, as I've said before, trying to build out more on the full relationships that we have also with our lending customers. So I would expect this, as you can see also from the year-on-year sort of growth in contribution, I think we've jumped from 33% to 35% of the non-fund-based income. So this is something direction of travel-wise, we want to see increasing. And there will be different parts of the business in different times of the market that will contribute more or less in this. So that's why I'm a firm believer in having a diversified income stream also from various business lines for the non-funds income.

Shabbir Malik

analyst
#40

Maybe one final question from my side. Do you see scope for cost efficiency -- further cost efficiency improvement? Or do you think that you're already at a very good level and it's going to be very difficult to improve from this point onwards?

Lars Kramer

executive
#41

I would say if you look at the levels that we're at, at the moment, those are really very, very world-class type level cost income ratios, right? The -- again, if you look at the savings that we have made this year, we've probably booked about AED 130 million of savings and expecting about another AED 160 million for the year. So we are continuously looking for operational efficiencies. Against that, though, I really look at things like good costs and bad cost. What we are trying to strip out is the bad costs from the business, so the inefficiencies, and trying to build our franchise. And this is a franchise that has -- is built around people, it gets built around technology, it gets built around automation of processes. So we will continue to invest. And therefore, I would say, net-net, we probably see costs increasing, but with a real emphasis on that being a good cost investment.

Operator

operator
#42

Our next question comes from Chander Kumar from AI Ramz Capital.

Chander Kumar

analyst
#43

My question is regarding the margin. So we saw 28 basis point improvement in NIM this quarter sequentially. So could you please elaborate if this improvement include any one-off element in it? And my second question is regarding this current level -- current interest rate environment, particularly the presence of a steepening yield curve. So I'm interested in understanding whether this environment is expected to have a positive or a negative impact on your margin and overall business?

Lars Kramer

executive
#44

Yes, the 28 basis points is the improvement over the full year, right? The quarter-on-quarter has only seen a -- well, still for us, a healthy 8 basis point improvement. But the 28 basis points over the year, this is really materially driven by the rate hike cycle. I mean, we have seen an improvement, clearly also in terms of our volumes of deposits that has helped as well. But it is the rate hike cycle, which I guess, links with your second question in terms of where we stand. In previous calls, we have mentioned the sensitivity that we are sitting on. So every 25 basis points of interest rate hike, we see a sensitivity of about AED 300 million of bottom line increase. Similarly, if we were to see a 25 basis point decrease at the moment, the sensitivities on the book are running at about AED 365 million impact. Now clearly, we manage our balance sheet very dynamically and actively. So these sensitivities are looked at daily, and we will come back again at year-end and give you the latest insights into where sensitivity stands.

Chander Kumar

analyst
#45

But historically, if you look at the previous track record, we haven't seen this kind of jump in net interest margin. Like we have seen like 5 to 10 basis point improvement because this interest rate has increased sharply from last 1 year -- 1 to 2 years. But we haven't seen this kind of jump. But this quarter, like 28 basis points. So I just wanted to check if there's any exceptional factors in it? Or...

Lars Kramer

executive
#46

I mean we also haven't seen the number of rate increases. I think we've got about, what, 10, 12 rate increases in a very short space of time. So this does feed through to that sort of increase over a 9-month window compared to last year. So it really is just the number and the frequency of those rate hikes that came through from the Fed, which feeds straight through to us.

Chander Kumar

analyst
#47

Okay. So it's mainly due to a lagged impact of previous rate hike, right?

Lars Kramer

executive
#48

Yes. And they were a repetitive rate hike cycle right through the year.

Chander Kumar

analyst
#49

Okay. And regarding this current interest rate environment, so what should we expect -- whether this will have any positive or negative impact on margins going forward?

Lars Kramer

executive
#50

Generally, we've seen a positive impact of rates increasing. So that has been helpful for us.

Operator

operator
#51

Thank you. I'll now hand back to Sofia for any further questions.

Sofia El Boury

executive
#52

Thank you. Thank you all for participating in the call today and for your questions. Obviously, if you have any further queries, please don't hesitate to reach out. I mean, we understand that maybe some of you might not have had the time to go through the number in detail because we just announced a few hours ago. So please don't hesitate to reach out directly to myself or the other IR team members. If you have any follow-ups, I'm happy to catch up at any time this week or next week. Thank you all. Have a great day.

Operator

operator
#53

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.

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