First Horizon Corporation (FHN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
July 15, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorWelcome to the First Horizon Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Tyler Craft, Head of Investor Relations.
Tyler Craft
executiveThank you, Rebecca. Good morning. Welcome to our second quarter 2026 results conference call. Thank you for joining us. Today, our Chairman, President and CEO, Bryan Jordan; and Chief Financial Officer, Hope Dmuchowski, will provide prepared remarks, after which we'll be happy to take your questions. We're also pleased to have our Chief Credit Officer, Thomas Hung, here to assist with questions as well. Our remarks today will reference our earnings presentation, which is available on our website at ir.firsthorizon.com. As always, I need to remind you that we will make forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Therefore, we ask you to review the factors that may cause our results to differ from our expectations on Page 2 of our presentation and in our SEC filings. Additionally, please be aware that our comments will refer to adjusted results, which exclude the impact of notable items and to other non-GAAP measures. Therefore, it's important for you to review the GAAP information in our earnings release Pages 2 and 3 of our presentation and the non-GAAP reconciliations at the end of our presentation. And last but not least, our comments reflect our current views, and you should understand that we are not obligated to update them. And with that, I'll hand it over to Bryan.
D. Jordan
executiveThanks, Tyler. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us this morning. I'm proud of the results we achieved in the second quarter. Comparing our year-over-year performance, adjusted earnings per share for the quarter are up $0.09 or 20%. We saw an 8% increase in adjusted PPNR and period-end loan balances grew by approximately $2 billion compared to the second quarter of 2025. These outcomes are the direct results of our clear objectives, disciplined execution and the value we demonstrate to clients day in and day out. We see continued growth momentum going into the second half of the year. Our entire organization is focused on delivering strong performance through the cycle through our core regional and specialty businesses and our countercyclical business model. Building long-term relationships with clients who benefit most from the value we provide remains at the center of our strategy. We continue to grow and invest in the people, products and services that meet client needs and drive continued performance. Hope will provide some additional comments on the second quarter and I'll return at the end of the call for some closing comments. Hope?
Hope Dmuchowski
executiveThank you, Bryan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Starting on Slide 6. We highlight our strong earnings momentum shown by our results for both the second quarter and the first half of 2026. In the quarter, we grew adjusted EPS by $0.01 to $0.64, adjusted PPNR by 1% to $364 million and average loan balances by $1.5 billion. Compared to the first half of 2025, our adjusted ROTCE increased by over 180 basis points. Adjusted PPNR increased 8% and adjusted earnings per share was up $0.21. As we move through the detailed slides, we will walk through the drivers of this performance in more detail. On Slide 8, we walk through our net interest income and margin performance in the second quarter. Our margin compressed by 3 basis points, which saw NIM settle into the high 3.40s as we expected, reflecting the rate environment evolution into a flat to up expectation. We grew NII by $9 million this quarter, reflecting our strong loan growth. On Slide 9, we cover details around our deposit performance in the quarter. Period-end balances increased by $1.6 billion compared to prior quarter, driven primarily by growth in brokered deposits. The average rate paid on interest-bearing deposits increased to 2.33%, which is a 5 basis point increase from the prior quarter. While deposit costs came up due to the competitive environment and portfolio, lend. Our cumulative deposit beta remains strong at 66% since rates started to fall in September 2024. The rate paid increase in the quarter are in line with the patterns we saw in 2025. While the environment remains competitive, we saw average cost of client interest-bearing deposits remain roughly flat in the quarter. As always, we remain focused on growing our core deposit base and prioritizing relationship growth to sustainably and profitably grow our balance sheet. On Slide 10, we cover our quarterly loan growth. Period-end loans increased by $953 million from the prior quarter, driven by $1 billion in commercial loan growth. This growth includes $710 million in C&I growth, excluding loans to mortgage companies and $175 million in commercial real estate growth which reflects the momentum we have seen in that portfolio over the last few quarters. Loans to mortgage companies grew $118 million in the quarter, which reflects normal home buying seasonality with some headwinds from the rate environment. We saw strong production in the quarter with new commitments up more than 50% year-over-year, driven by commercial real estate activity. This creates an opportunity for flat to slightly up [ rebalance ] this year as construction projects fund up over time. Additionally, our pipelines remain strong across our business lines and throughout our footprint. Our commercial loan spreads remain generally consistent with prior quarters amidst the competitive environment for loan growth. Turning to Slide 11. We detail our fee income performance for the quarter, which decreased $1 million from the prior quarter, excluding deferred compensation and is up $14 million year-over-year. We saw a quarter-over-quarter decline in fixed income revenues due to a decrease in ADRs to $594,000, though this is still an 8% increase year-over-year. Lower ADRs were driven by macroeconomic volatility amidst a changing geopolitical environment and uncertain rate environment. The decline in fixed income is partially offset by increased brokerage, trust and insurance income from continued momentum in our wealth management business and increased client activity. This is one of the revenue-driven profitability lines that we see driving $100 million plus PPNR opportunity. On Slide 12, we cover adjusted expenses that excluding deferred compensation, increased $6 million from prior quarter. Personnel expenses, excluding deferred comp, increased by $1 million from last quarter driven by a $4 million increase in salaries and benefits. This reflects hiring as well as higher day count. Outside services increased by $10 million which primarily reflects typical seasonality with higher marketing expenses that are partially offset in other noninterest expenses by reduced client cash incentive payouts from prior quarter's marketing programs. Turning to credit on Slide 13. Net charge-offs increased by $4 million to $33 million. Our net charge-off ratio of 20 basis points remains in line with our expectations for the year. Our provision for credit losses was $15 million in the quarter, and our ACL loan ratio declined to 1.24% driven by mix change in the portfolio and continued credit resolutions as NPLs declined 13 basis points to 81. Our teams continue to do an excellent job of working with our clients to resolve credit issues. As rates decreased over the last several quarters, we have been able to consistently find ways to resolve credit and maintain our strong credit performance. On Slide 14, we ended the quarter with CET1 of 10.5%, which is in line with our near-term targets. We had strong loan growth as well as buybacks of 4 million shares totaling $100 million this quarter. Our tangible book value per share ended the quarter at $14.53 and is up 7% year-over-year, which includes buybacks of $857 million and an increase to our dividend. We continue analyzing the potential impact of Basel III and currently expect an approximate 10% reduction in risk-weighted assets in the standardized approach as it is currently proposed. I'll wrap up on Slide 15 and 16. We continue to reiterate our full year expectations as outlined on Slide 15. While the macroeconomic environment and competition may change, our business model creates resilient earnings and our associates consistently deliver on expectations, including our $100 million PPNR opportunity. Now I will give it back to Bryan.
D. Jordan
executiveThank you, Hope. The second quarter of 2026 was very similar to what we saw in the second quarter of 2025 regarding deposit competition and increases in deposit costs, macro volatility impacting fixed income revenue and various other seasonal patterns like home buying and marketing campaigns. Ultimately, we create value for our shareholders by prioritizing full relationships with clients who value the services we provide. The work we've done over the last 18 months to create a clear common understanding of the ways we win in the market and how we prioritize profitability and our objectives strengthens our ability to deliver results to our investors. On the whole, we feel very good about where we are and how we're executing. Our job is to stack 1 good quarter on top of the next by serving clients well and staying disciplined rather than reacting to economic volatility and market changes. Expense discipline remains a priority as we continue to strategically invest in talent, technologies and tools that make our associates more effective for clients. Capital is a strength for us. Near term, we are managing CET1 ratio around 10.5% while we continue to support organic growth. We'll stay thoughtful on capital deployment and be opportunistic with share repurchases. We believe we can operate a lower CET1 ratio over time as conditions allow. Our footprint and operating model continue to serve as competitive advantages. By pairing big bank capabilities with a community bank touch, we are well positioned to attract full client relationships and grow with the markets and lines of business we serve. Thank you to our associates for their hard work and to our clients and shareholders for their continued confidence in First Horizon. Rebecca, with that, we will open it up for questions.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Jon Arfstrom with RBC Markets.
Jon Arfstrom
analystJust wanted to ask a couple of questions about the revenue environment. Hope, can you touch a little bit on the deposit cost outlook and Help us understand what you're seeing. I know you said the average client interest-bearing deposits were roughly flat sequentially, but what can we expect from here on deposit costs and funding costs in general?
Hope Dmuchowski
executiveJon, thanks for the question. As we look out as to where deposit costs will go in Q3 and the rest of the year, I expect it to look very similar to last year. As you looked at what happened in 2025, following the successive rate cuts at the end of the year, rates came back up, the competition increased. And if we continue to see this trajectory. I do think that our beta will continue to shrink slightly. But I want to make the point in that we said at the end of last year, both Q3 and Q4, we were maximizing the decrease in our deposit cost, knowing that we give some back once rates stop cutting. So this is as expected, Jon. Also, Q2 and Q3 is the most competitive time for offers. You see in our expenses every year in Q2, we talked about the increased marketing cost that goes with those acquisition offers. I think really, the trajectory for the back half of the year, we start looking at Q3 and Q4, it does depend on which way rates go. I mentioned in my prepared remarks, as did Bryan, the uncertain outlook is the next rate move this year and is an increase or decrease will drive that. But I do expect it to continue to increase, consistent with what we saw last year asset of rate cuts.
Jon Arfstrom
analystOkay. And then I guess loan competition and yields, you see a little bit of compression this quarter. But do you feel like it's still rational, Bryan, anything you'd like to flag in terms of yields and anything that's more competitive than other areas?
D. Jordan
executiveYes. I would describe the loan mark is, Jon, is maybe a little surprisingly optimistic. Pipelines have continued to be very strong, whether it's in customer requests for lending or just an anecdotal conversations with customers. People are still very optimistic about the economy and very forward leaning. So I'm surprised at how optimistic things feel, given some of the uncertainty around oil, in particular, and the conflict in the Middle East. London pricing and structure, I can always give you anecdotes where it seems irrational. It is very competitive, and it's very competitive for larger transactions in particular. But at the end of the day, I think you will see over the course of this year, the demand for deposits and lending continue to probably put a little bit of pressure on relative spreads on both sides of the balance sheet as this economy continues to churn forward in a very positive fashion.
Jon Arfstrom
analystYes. Okay. So a little pressure on spreads, but feeling good about volumes is the summary?
D. Jordan
executiveYes. Yes. Yes. Very accurate.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Michael Rose with Raymond James.
Michael Rose
analystMaybe we can just start on the ADR side. I mean, obviously, you guys kind of gave the update intra-quarter just based on where the curve is now, what the expectations for rates are? I know it's hard to forecast, but can you just talk about the puts and takes in that business, just given where we are.
D. Jordan
executiveYes. Well, I'll start. It's hard to put a beat on it. ADRs last week were very strong. So rates are moving. They're very volatile with what's going on in the marketplace. Given the [ VPI ] today, the market is taking some of the certainty for the expected certainty around increases in rates over the back half of this year out is diminishing some. I think we're in a channel where the volatility is going to have a real -- repeat real. It's a real-time effect on what's happening in the fixed income business as rates move higher and investors see it as opportunistic. We'll see ADRs pick up and as rates are trending down, I think you'll see less volume. On the whole, it feels like the back half of this year is not going to be as strong as the back half of last year. But I just don't know how rates are going to move given the uncertainty around what's happening in the Middle East in oil and what's happening with the Fed and rate cuts and inflation, we'll know more 30, 60, 90 days from today. But there is very positive signs like a week last week that was very strong.
Michael Rose
analystPerfect. And maybe just a follow-up there. When we do get capital reform, that's obviously going to benefit the system as a whole, would you expect to see more volume from that because not all of it can be returned through buybacks and dividends. I would assume that some of it will be putting in securities and that could benefit the business. Just wanted to see if you guys have thought about the potential uptick from higher capital levels and reg reform.
D. Jordan
executiveI think it's possible. I agree. I don't think that buyback will return at all. I do think that the relative effect on risk weightings will impact where people feel like they can lend. And I think you might see some lending activity also come back from the secondary markets. But on the whole, I think it's generally a positive thing for the fixed income business. But I wouldn't today speculate on how great that's going to be.
Michael Rose
analystAll right. Great. Maybe just one follow-up just as it relates to credit. Last quarter, we spent a lot of time talking about NDFI and things like that. doesn't seem to be a real topic this quarter. Obviously, the improvement was good. But I guess, how much better can it really get in your eyes? And if volatility does persist, could we start to see things maybe trend the other way?
Thomas Hung
executiveMichael, I think the short answer on NDFIs there's been no real change since the last quarter. It continues to be a relatively steady performing portfolio for us with no major concerns. And so no part isn't necessarily looking for it to get better. I think just a consistent steady performance that we've already had it would be -- that's what I'm expecting and that's what we're managing towards.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Jared Shaw with Barclays.
Jared David Shaw
analystMaybe going back to the deposit discussion. Were there any unique drivers of some of the non-time interest-bearing runoff? And how should we look at sort of the outlook for broker deposits from here?
Hope Dmuchowski
executiveYes. There, there was no main themes. I will say, it was pretty broad-based when we started looking at where we saw changes in balances. It's not loss of clients quarter-over-quarter. It's the average balance in their accounts. The one trend we did see is money moving from traditional money markets or CDs back into the equities market in our wealth business. We've seen a little bit of a churn there. But no real main theme. I think just -- as we know, the consumer has less cash flowing through their checking accounts and their spending down their savings and our commercial clients are funding up project and putting that cash to work.
Jared David Shaw
analystOkay. All right. And then looking at the securities side, you continue to run that down and use that to fund other growth how low should we expect the securities as a percentage of assets to go? And are you doing anything differently in that right now in terms of purchases compared to what we see for average yields in the second quarter?
Hope Dmuchowski
executiveYes. We have not been running that off. It varies a percentage or 2 quarter-over-quarter just as you look how the total balance sheet is compromised. But we continue to reinvest. We have $1.2 billion rolling off at approximately 2.8%, and we're replacing that at 4-plus percent right now. I'd say now because as we just talked about earlier, the rate outlook continues to change. But yes, there's positive momentum for earnings there, but we do not expect a shift in mix on to our balance sheet.
D. Jordan
executiveIn the securities portfolio today, Jared is about 11% of total assets or thereabouts we try to run that portfolio as small as we can because we don't believe that we create any economic value for our shareholders or for our customers for that matter there. There is a floor to it. we maintain the securities portfolio for liquidity, balancing on our asset liability situation or sensitivity and at the same time, providing collateral for public funds and things of that nature. So there is a floor to it. But if given the opportunity, we allow that to migrate down.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Bernard Von Gizycki with Deutsche Bank.
Bernard Von Gizycki
analystJust the first question on the brokerage, trust and insurance fees. They've been growing nicely versus the year ago period as well as versus the first quarter. Could you just provide some color on what's driving results? Is it a combination of the macro micro factors? Just talk on how you expect revenues to trend in the second half of the year? I believe you mentioned increased wealth management penetration across the footprint with $5 million recognized in 1 half '26 as part of the growth.
Hope Dmuchowski
executiveYes. Thank you for the question. In Q3 of last year, we completed our conversion onto the LPL platform. And so it's allowed us to deepen our product penetration with our existing clients as well as bring new clients onto the platform. We have been hiring wealth advisers. We've been building out the deepening initiative that you spoke about, which is where do we have commercial clients that we can also cross-sell well to. And I think that momentum or expect that momentum to continue as we continue to get the benefit of growing our franchise through the LPL partnership and new wealth advisers.
Bernard Von Gizycki
analystGreat. And just maybe a follow-up on the hirings like you mentioned in wealth. I know you added a head count of 53 during the quarter. Just any color on the mix of front versus like, say, mid-back office during the quarter or year-to-date? And just any expectations on hiring in the second half of the year?
Hope Dmuchowski
executiveYes. We are continuing to hire bankers across our footprint as we did last year is pretty broad-based in some key growth areas as well as some key businesses. We just talked about wealth. We're not investing back into support areas right now. One of the things that AI we talk about a lot is it can create efficiency, so you can scale your front office without having to add to support partners. The one exception to that in head count growth is fraud. We're continuing to invest people into our fraud business as it gets more and more difficult to fraud for our consumer and our commercial clients.
D. Jordan
executiveBen, I'm really proud of the hiring that we have done in the organization over the last 12 to 18 months. we have attracted very strong talent, and we're seeing positive results from that. And I'm optimistic that over the next 2 to 3 years, you will continue to see that momentum build. So we feel very good about are hiring in the marketplace.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Janet Lee with TD Cowen.
Sun Young Lee
analystJust following up on deposits. Is there room for a broker deposit balance to unwind versus the $2 billion increase in the quarter and interest-bearing deposit costs in the third quarter could potentially come in below the [ 243 ] spot rate given the CECL strength in core deposits?
Hope Dmuchowski
executiveJanet, absolutely, that is a possibility, and we do not -- we have not tried to fund loan growth as a priority with deposits. We have seen 2 successive quarters of strong loan growth and the seasonality of deposit campaigns when clients move deposits as well as the balances that there are to go after. It does tend to tick up in Q2 and Q3, and we would trade that and paying down brokerage. However, is it going to come in lower than where we ended the quarter, it's really hard to know this early in the quarter. It's really hard to know with the changing macroeconomic outlook and the rate outlook, what we will see. But it is our goal to continue to grow customer deposits to fund loans.
Sun Young Lee
analystGot it. And on 2026 revenue growth guide, if we as to current mid-single-digit loan growth, perhaps relatively stable cyclical or countercyclical fee businesses and NIM likely coming down if deposit costs are rising, that implies revenue growth coming in at the low end of the 3% to 7%. Is that a fair baseline expectation or assumption that we could assume? Or if not, what are the levers to do better than the low end?
Hope Dmuchowski
executiveYes. I think that is one assumption that you can run. We run a series of different scenarios and a changing rate environment and economic outlook One of the comments you meant is you said is compressing NIM. If NII is growing and NIM is compressing, that's still positive to revenue growth over the year. We are for the first half of the year at the average for revenue growth. When I look at the back half of the year, it really depends on what happens with the rate outlook and how our countercyclical perform. Our FHN Financial, as Bryan mentioned earlier, had a great second half of last year. So to get to the higher end of that range, you would have to be equal or outperforming that. But a rate increase, we have an asset-sensitive balance sheet. So early rate increases and other scenarios can run, and we would pick up more NII than that on the exact same balance sheet without growth. And so I think you've got to play all those factors out, not knowing if we'll have a great decrease or increase this year. And we brought all of those scenarios for the back half of this year, and we feel confident that we will be well within that range.
D. Jordan
executiveThe other lever that Hope mentioned earlier in our prepared comments was we're really focused on how we improve the profitability of the balance sheet. And if you look at loan growth over the last year an improvement in PPNR, we're outpacing the growth in the balance sheet with improvement in profitability. And there is a real positive effort, and we're getting very good traction to really improve every dollar of capital we have allocated in the business. And I think the combination of all of those gives us confidence in what essentially is the framework for 2026 that we laid out in the early part of this year, even in the context of all the uncertainty that has occurred in the last 90 days, 180 days around interest rates and oil in the Middle East. We still feel very good about our outlook for this year.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Casey Haire with Autonomous Research.
Casey Haire
analystI wanted to touch on expenses. So the expense cap which you reiterated it assumes that expenses kind of hold flat with this second quarter run rate. The outside services was up quarter-to-quarter, and it kind of ramps last year. So just wondering what -- do I have that right, that expenses kind of hold flat with the second quarter run rate? And what's the outlook on the outside services?
Hope Dmuchowski
executiveCasey, you said it perfectly. You answered the question for me. We are expecting expenses to be flat from here on out, and we did have in the back half of last year, onetime expenses related to finishing up some projects and some initiatives and will not repeat in the back half of this year. So we do expect it to be flattish year. We will see some moving -- movement between outside services and other, and that's really related to the marketing campaigns. Right now, we're in the acquisition phase, so it hits above. And then we pay the cash incentives, you'll see our DDAs are up this quarter. We're seeing positive momentum with our DDA cash offer, and those will pay out in future quarters. You'll see it switch a little bit in the P&L but we do expect flat expenses in the next 2 quarters from here.
Casey Haire
analystGreat. And then, Tom, question for you, 2 parter on credit. So the ACL down 18 bps over the last year, you did have a very nice NPL reduct this quarter. I guess first question is how low can that ACL ratio go? And then separately, that the NPL ratio can this momentum continue? Is there an outlook that you can drive that lower from 81 basis points.
Thomas Hung
executiveYes. Sure. Casey, I'll answer that in a few different parts. I'll start with the 18 basis point reduction that you mentioned. That is [indiscernible] factors. We have been very diligent in how we manage our portfolio. So what you've seen is a continual decrease in our special mention and substandard assets, we've been very diligent on underwriting and how we resolve those credits. And so it's that 18 basis points is a combination of improving portfolio credit quality. It's also got all the positive resolutions you've mentioned, especially in NPLs in the last quarter. It also reflects just economic outlook as well. There are internal factors we control. There are also external factors around economic factors, but you add all that together and actually, I missed a major one, which is obviously a very consistent and low net charge-off performance. All of that put together is why we've had the decrease in ACL. I would point to the [ 124 ] that we ended this quarter at is still over 6x our average net charge-offs over the last year and more than 7x over the last 2 years. So I would characterize that as well reserved relative to our performance. As I look out ahead, where does they see a go, I think that's something that I would not speculate on because as I mentioned, there are internal things that we absolutely can control, and I continue our whole team, our whole bank continues to prioritize minimizing losses and maximizing recoveries as opposed to say, timely resolutions and -- but I think we control the things we can control, but there are external factors such as unemployment, interest rates, economic outlook, consumer spending by our inflation geopolitical risk. There's so many things that can influence ACL going forward that I wouldn't speculate on kind of where that can go. The last piece you mentioned, NPLs, I think that's a real highlight for credit this quarter, down 13 basis points. Once again, that's a combination of a lot of different things. We've been working on very diligently on focusing on our NPLs. And we had a number of positive resolutions this quarter. What you're seeing there is a combination of upgrades, payoffs restructurings. And as I mentioned, our focus continues to be on minimizing losses and maximizing recoveries as opposed to timeliness. So we will absolutely focus on continuing to reduce that number. That -- but like I said, I take a long-term view on all of this rather than trying to get quick resolutions.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.
Ebrahim Poonawala
analystI just have 2 follow-up questions. I guess, I hope, Bryan, for you. One on capital. If I heard you correctly hope you mentioned risk-weighted assets down about 10% under the standardized approach. That's roughly what 100, 110 basis points of CET1. Just talk to us in terms of as we think about capital allocation given where your CET1 arguably at the higher end when we think about the 10.5, just how are you thinking about where you could deploy that capital would buybacks be attractive once we get some finality on these rules? Or just, yes, in terms of beyond organic growth because it doesn't feel like organic growth is going to absorb all that excess capital?
Hope Dmuchowski
executiveEbrahim, thanks for the question. Yes, it is a combination of those and it depends on the outlook. As Bryan and I've talked about multiple times, when we look at capital, we look at it when we do our annual stress test, although we're not required to do it, we do, do it, we review it with our Board, and we look through the next 1 to 2 years for capital, which is what do we believe we're going to need to bundle loan growth, loan growth being the priority for how we want to use capital. Second is what is the right level of dividend for a company and for the share buybacks. And so when we look out towards that 10% reduction, we will look at not just this quarter, how do we get -- how do we put that all to work, but what do we reserve so that we have it to grow our balance sheet. It's hard for me to know when it will all go into place, Ebrahim, and what the economic environment could be. We came into this year expecting load of mid-single-digit loan growth. I do see an environment where we can get back into the high single digits and 10% loan growth as an economy, especially in the Southeast quickly as our markets are growing. I just don't know when that market starts to turn in timing when Basel III end game will be implemented and approved.
Ebrahim Poonawala
analystGot it. And then, I guess, just separately, so appreciate you outlining the $100 million PPNR opportunity ahead of the bank. But just talk to us, we are seeing competitors, either acquiring banks, adding branches, acquiring bankers. Just talk to us, if you think about the top 3 areas where the investment spend is going from a growth standpoint, like how would you sort of characterize that in terms of either bank card hiring? Are you opening branches in new markets? If you can talk through that?
D. Jordan
executiveYes. We're investing across a number of fronts and one you didn't mention very much was technology. We continue to invest in technology. we're building branches, not so much in new markets. We're building branches in existing markets where we think we have tremendous opportunity to improve our density, our 24/7 always on advertising and commitments to those markets. The Carolinas, Raleigh Durham, Chapel Hill is a good example of that. As I mentioned earlier, I feel good about the hiring we're doing across the organization. We've hired in markets broadly speaking, to go deeper and broader, mostly commercial and wealth type REMs, customer-facing bankers. And we will continue to do that as well. And then technology we made a huge push in technology following the termination of the merger agreement. That work is largely if not fully completed, but we continue to invest in our mobile banking system and how we deploy AI. So we are looking to invest in a number of fronts. I thought hope did a really good job describing expenses earlier. And that's one part of the forecast that we have the most certainty over. We feel very, very good about our ability to control expenses and that's the one thing that we can control with a high degree of certainty. And we feel good about our ability to continue these investments to grow the franchise, invest at the same time manage expenses within the flattish quarter that we've described.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Ben Gerlinger with Citi.
Benjamin Gerlinger
analystBut it's clear that people are pretty focused on your funding mix, if not interest-bearing call costs. Given that you guys have a pretty seasonal balance sheet, like is there any reason why '26 should have a materially different overall kind of percentages of funding for relative to like 4Q '25, like i.e., broker comes down. And like I'm just trying to get a sense of like you do have seasonal. Is there anything to assume that seasonal doesn't really play itself out again?
Hope Dmuchowski
executiveNo, there's nothing to say that we expect the seasonality and Bryan mentioned in his prepared remarks, and I mentioned my first question, this year, deposit costs in the panel growth is trending just as we've seen in the last 2 years following rate cuts that then stop abruptly. You don't know when or what the next rate movement will be. The only thing that would move that is if we saw it late in the year, mortgage warehouse spike, we saw mortgage refinance late year. That would be the only thing that changed that materially. But no, we do not expect a material change.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Anthony Elian with JPMorgan.
Anthony Elian
analystHope, another one on deposit costs. Last quarter, you pointed to a slight tick up in deposit costs, and you saw a 5 basis point increase on average in 2Q, would the pace of deposit cost increases in the second half be higher than the increase you saw in 2Q, given where the spot raise now and your earlier comments on 3Q and 4Q being the most competitive for deposit offers?
Hope Dmuchowski
executiveI think it's hard to pin it down within 1 basis point this early in the quarter. The biggest piece is how much loan growth we get. We talked about having another great quarter of originations that will fund up. And so how do we fund growth? What does the growth on the balance sheet look like? As Ben just pointed out, well, mortgage warehouse seasonally is higher in the summer. That is the traditional home buying season. We've already seen that. We do match fund mortgage warehouse with wholesale funding traditionally. So I think you've really got to look through the cycle and not just quarter-to-quarter with the seasonality. But it really is hard for me to tell you exactly where we're going to be within a couple of basis points, [ 75 ] days from now, but we're trending consistently as we just said, and we're continuing to manage customer costs.
D. Jordan
executiveI will add to Hope's comment. My instincts are that what I see in the marketplace and anecdotally, I think in the near term, with the uncertainty around interest rate direction. And right now, some bias in the market for rising interest rates. It does look like people are trying to lock in funds today in anticipation of higher rates. And so I think that's changing the mix a little bit. You're seeing more CD offers in the marketplace. You're seeing still very competitive and aggressive money market rates in the marketplace. And at the end of the day, as I've said for a couple of years now, you're still in this secular change where the cost of deposits is drifting slowly towards wholesale cost to fund this with the transparency events rate. So my gut tells me that you could see rates drift up a little bit over the next quarter or so. But I think the seasonality effects will play. The driver from our perspective is to be extraordinarily thoughtful and competitive about how we build client relationships, how we ensure that we pay our customers fairly for the business that they do with us and get paid fairly for the credit that we provide. And we look at all of it in the context of a market that is moving a good bit. So at the end of the day, my gut is maybe up a little bit, but it's hard to know given all the moving parts in the marketplace.
Anthony Elian
analystAnd then on the NIM, so on last quarter's call gave us a range of high [ 3.40s ] for 2Q. If I look at consensus, it has you hovering at that level over the next couple of quarters. I'm wondering how you're thinking about NIM for 3Q given, again, your earlier comments on deposit costs?
Hope Dmuchowski
executiveI think NIM, we expect it to settle in this year in the mid-3, 4s to high 3, 4s. That will vary -- basis point or 2 on NIM for us is really about mix just deposit costs, mortgage warehouses, our highest spread business. So as that funds up, you can see some margin compression there, but it's positive to NII. And I think the really important thing when we talk about NIM compression is our deposit growth is -- our deposit increase and our deposit growth is to fund the loan growth. So it's still driving positive NII with slight NIM compression. We've been saying for about 3 quarters now. We think a normalized for 2026 is the mid- to low 3 4s, and we're at the mid to high [ 3.40s ], and we're at [ 3.49 ]. So that gives us a lot of room to come in and that full year guidance we've given on them and feel confident on the full year, we will. But to Bryan's point, there's a lot of moving parts right now. But I don't want to disconnect the deposit growth is tied to loan growth, which is positive for NII right now.
D. Jordan
executiveWhat I would say is you can't spend a NIM, which is a ratio. It's been NII, which is dollars.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Timur Braziler with UBS.
Timur Braziler
analystHope on the seasonal deposit campaigns that you guys are running, can you just maybe talk through the magnitude of those and where your pricing on those seasonal campaigns.
Hope Dmuchowski
executiveYes. I mentioned this a few times at recent conferences that we've done fireside chats. But the one side, headline rate is not how deposits are working now. One of you on this call actually called branches and put the report out saying this city here's the offers we have gotten to the point in our industry and us as well. Well, we do have different rate specials in different cities. We hear lower end deposits versus higher. Jumbo CDs are back with a much more premium rate. So unlike 2023, where I can tell you, we were offering [ 525 ] to everybody in all states above 25,000. That's not how we're doing deposit competition anymore. It's not how we're doing promos. So it is a mix issue of how do you grow with where the market is. The Southeast is a very competitive market. for deposits has continued to have a migration in and additional competitors either grow their footprint or enter, but it's not equal in all states and all cities. And so we're getting much more intentional about where we can grow at what rate, which is how we're able to manage that deposit cost more consistently through the cycle than we were back in '22 and '23, not just for us, but as an industry.
D. Jordan
executiveAnd as you mentioned earlier, Hope, we've invested in cash offers for noninterest-bearing deposits. We're starting to see very positive traction there. And essentially, that is an effort to build primacy and essentially the core account, which customer relationships are built around. So we're investing in our market dollars, both in noninterest-bearing and interest-bearing deposits. And as Hope said, it depends on market. It depends on the part of the curve we're trying to go at.
Timur Braziler
analystOkay. And I guess in that same light, if we do get a 25 basis point hike of the forward curve actually does play out, I guess, what does the margin trajectory look like with 1 height?
Hope Dmuchowski
executiveJust like the -- it's going to be the opposite of what we saw with decreases, which is the loan side reprices up first and the deposit price will lag. What we've seen in decreasing environment as the loan yield comes down first and then the deposit lag. So you'll have some margin expansion in that first quarter and then you'll see it compress back as the deposits reprice. We have anywhere from year to 3-month to 13-month commitment on something like a jumbo CDs. You've got to let that play through in either a rate increase or a rate decrease. So there is a lag quarter-to-quarter. But over the full year or over a 12-month period, you would expect it to -- we expect it to be matched.
D. Jordan
executiveOur business model is very balanced through the cycle given where fixed income ADRs are today, a rate increase would be incrementally more positive because ADRs have already been at a relatively low level. So if the Fed were to move up 25 basis points, it would look more like the interest sensitivity that we've described as opposed to the aggregate sensitivity of the balance sheet.
Timur Braziler
analystGreat. And Bryan, if I can sneak one more in for you. Just would love to get your thoughts on broader M&A and the environment. Are the conversations as that as the deal activity has been more recently? I guess what are you seeing from your seat in terms of books coming across your desk or broader conversations had?
D. Jordan
executiveFrom my perspective, I'm focused on how we drive the profitability in this business. I would say as sort of a macro observer of the marketplace, given the significant amount of M&A activity that occurred in the middle part to the end of 2025 and the relative absence of that in the first half. I don't know whether that is -- what's driving, I suspect it's probably a number of things, including uncertainty about what's happening in credit in the Middle East. But it does feel more benign today than it did, call it, 12 months ago, for sure.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from David Chiaverini with Jefferies.
David Chiaverini
analyst[indiscernible] on for David Chiaverini. You guys have mentioned in referenced the $100 million plus revenue opportunity several times today across initiatives like treasury management, CRE pricing, wealth management and the regional specialty partnership model. As you sit here today, which of those initiatives do you think has the longest runway for growth and where you're seeing the strongest client adoption?
D. Jordan
executiveI think they all have pretty long runways. I think maybe the most significant in terms of ability to create or drive value is deeper much deeper penetration of relationships where we have loan only or near loan-only relationships and better penetration. Our TM folks are making significantly more calls with their relationship managers. And that, I think, is probably #1 that I would list. Second is introducing our private client, our wealth management teams to those relationships. But essentially, it has to be executed client and relationship at a time. Our teams are very focused on it. They understand where they are in the cycles with relationships. And not to repeat a point I made earlier, but you see it in the balance sheet when you look at the improvement in PPNR versus the growth in the balance sheet, you can assume underneath that, that there's some relationships and particularly participations where we didn't believe that we had the opportunity to create relationship value over the long term. So we've traded out some loan growth over the course of the last year. But on a whole, we didn't expect this to occur overnight. We've been focused on it now for 18 to 24 months. And we're seeing very positive signs, and I'm very encouraged about our ability to achieve what we've laid out. It's built into the expectations that Hope and I've talked about a couple of times for this year. but we feel very good about our ability to achieve it.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Christopher Marinac with Brean Capital.
Christopher Marinac
analystHow do you think about the return on tangible common equity as it relates to kind of matching charge-offs with provision or having provisions slightly less? I know, Tom, talked about this earlier on the call, but just kind of curious how you think about ROTCE from that framework.
D. Jordan
executiveYes. I think I'll start with the bias that creating the maximum return we can on the capital we have deployed in the business is ideal. I think it's harder to think about provision and charge-offs vis-a-vis return on capital because I've been in recovery as a CPA for a long time now. But as I understand, the basic framework of CECL for every loan that's on the balance sheet, every single dollar we provided what we think the life of loan losses are. So the real drivers of variation around the return on the existing balance sheet of what happens with the economy, presumably new provision is driven by changes in the economy expected and it's also driven by the new production we put on. So I'm not I think our credit cost is going to be at the lower end of, over time, the industry range. Our charge-off and our provisioning is going to be driven with some volatility here and there about what's happening with customers. But as Tom said, I forgot about a 13 basis point reduction -- net reduction in NPAs over the course of this quarter our loss content is still very consistent with where it has been. Our outlook for loss content continues to be very constructive. So I recognize that maybe embedded in your question is, well, if you provided another $0.02, your ROTCE would have been closer to 15 as opposed to 15.3 or whatever the math says. But I'm not sure, given the way the CECL models, that's necessarily a fair comparison. I think our bias is to continue to improve the profitability of the business, control credit cost be predictable to our customers through the cycle, be predictable to our shareholders in terms of the credit risk we have embedded in the balance sheet. And if we can do those things, we will continue to drive improved and improving ROTCE over time.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Chris McGratty with KBW.
Christopher McGratty
analystGreat. I just want to go to Slide 16 for just a moment. I like the lower quadrant, right quadrant of what you've accomplished for that $100 million PPNR. I just want to get a clarification. Is the message here that you're roughly 15% to 20% of the way to that $100 million? That's question one. And point two is when do you think you'll get that full $100 million?
D. Jordan
executiveWell, when I originally brought up and put a $100 million estimate out there, it was roughly a year ago. And we have continued to make progress. And I referred to the profitability is embedded in this and profitability that's been embedded in our forecast or our expectations rather for 2026. As I said at the time, a year ago, it's probably a 2 to 3 exercise, 2- to 3-year exercise. And I think we're in progress on that. But to your specific question, that's not intended to signal that we're at any percentage point of completion at this point that we're continuing to work on it. And we've -- we continue to focus on driving that profitability. And when we achieve what we think is that initial $100 million, I'll be disappointed if we're not continuing to work on the plus part of it. So I think there's a lot of opportunity in our existing book of business.
Hope Dmuchowski
executiveAnd Chris, on Slide 16, we say here's a couple of examples. That's not meant to be an inclusive list.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from John Pancari with Evercore.
Eugene Sweeney
analystThis is Girard swinging on for John. Just wanted to follow up on credit. It sounds pretty healthy there. On last quarter's call, you mentioned keeping on the consumer sensitive areas like trucking auto and restaurants, would you say these are performing better than you expected so far in 2Q and 3Q? Or are these still areas that you're watching? And if not, any other areas to keep an eye on?
Thomas Hung
executiveYes. Happy to answer that. Those are the sectors we continue to watch closely. I will say they have proven to be very resilient so far. So need to continue to monitor because I do believe there is increasing pressure on especially lowering consumers and their spending power. But all of that said, within the sectors that you mentioned, retail restaurants, things that are closest to the end consumer, it's been surprisingly resilient. And so we'll continue to monitor it. But those do remain elevated in terms of credit risk relative to other industries. And so we'll continue to monitor closely.
D. Jordan
executiveYes, I'm just going to add that you see -- I'm not going to put an alphabet letter on the shape of the economy, but you do see in some of these consumer sensitive areas, people are reallocating where they're spending. They are still spending less on certain categories like dining out, more on fuel and things of that nature. But overall, as Tom said, the consumer is still holding up very well. And I think more than anything, that is tied to very particularly unemployment trends have been very, very low and employment trends have been very, very good.
Eugene Sweeney
analystUnderstood. And last one for me. Just on the iron comments that you hit on this call. What do you think has been a bigger driver of attracting talent to First Horizon? And have you seen opportunities from M&A in your markets where could create relationship managers getting dislodged or otherwise creating attrition?
D. Jordan
executiveYes. I think clearly, the drivers in our attractiveness as a platform is somehow embedded in our big bank muscle and small bank costal advertising tag. And it really is giving relationship bankers and teams the ability to understand a big bank product set and have confidence that they can deliver that big bank product set and what our risk profile is and at the same time, be able to personalize those services in the way that a community bank would. So I think as much as anything, it is the ability to have confidence about what you can deliver for customers and have the autonomy to look and feel like a very connected and personal relationship team.
Operator
operatorThere are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Bryan Jordan, Chairman, President and CEO, for closing remarks.
D. Jordan
executiveThank you, Rebecca. Thank you all for joining us this morning. Thank you, again, to our associates and our shareholders for all that you do for the organization. Please reach out if you have any further questions. I hope everyone has a great day.
Operator
operatorThis concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.
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