FleetPartners Group Limited (FPR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the FleetPartners FY '23 Full Year Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Damien Berrell, CEO. Please go ahead.

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and thank you for joining the FleetPartners FY '23 full year results presentation. Today's results confirm 3 fundamental strengths for FleetPartners' ongoing performance. First, we are successfully leveraging well-established tailwinds helping to underpin growth next year despite ongoing economic and supply volatility. Secondly, our market segment focus through strategic pathways and disciplined project management of Accelerate are both obviously delivering. And thirdly, we have clearly identified and are leveraging the defensive characteristics of the FleetPartners business model. I want to talk briefly to how each of these streams have contributed to this year's performance, and then I'll hand across to James to go through the financials, including the segment results. We will then provide an update on our FY '24 outlook before taking your questions. Let's start with the performance on Slide 5. NPATA was $88 million, underscoring another year of strong financial performance as the business delivered on its strategy. New business writings saw double-digit growth at 13%. This is due to the level of commercial intensity that was brought into this business over the last 3 years. We have also successfully leveraged the incredible demand for electric vehicles in Novated. This new business writings performance in turn resulted in AUMOF growth of 7%. Importantly, within this result, AUMOF growth, which for balance sheet-funded leases was up 17%, builds future annuity-like income for the business. As a result, the business is well positioned as we head into 2024. Orders taken in FY '23 are up 1.4x. What is also very pleasing is that, even with this level of increase in new business writings, the pipeline remained at 3x historic levels. That all goes very well for new business writings and AUMOF in FY '24. Demand for electric vehicles is another important component to the company's continued performance and outlook. In September, the mix of Novated EVs hit a new record of 53%. From what we see, this is industry-leading. NOI pre-EOL and provisions was 7.72%. That's at the top end of the normalized range we first communicated during our FY '21 results presentation. Highlighting the defensive nature of the business, 90-day arrears improved during the year to 17 basis points, and the business cash conversion was 123%. Finally, we have today announced the continuation of our buyback program. This additional $30 million allocation represents 65% of NPATA. That's at the top end of the company's previously announced capital payout range of 55% to 65%. This takes the total buyback relating to FY '23 to $73 million, a payout ratio of 83%. Let's take a look at the major component driving the company's performance and outlook. This is the progress we've made with strategic pathways on Slide 6. The strategic pathways is now entrenched within our business, and we are pleased with the results it is delivering. To recap, strategic pathways is designed to grow new business in 3 underpenetrated target markets of corporate, small fleets and Novated. This year, we continue to make strong progress in each of these segments. We won new customers and continue to establish ourselves as thought leaders in the electric vehicle transition. This was underscored by winning a marquee electric vehicle fleet in New Zealand. We signed a new global alliance with Alphabet, part of the BMW Group, and continue to build out our dealer footprint in small fleets. Finally, as I mentioned, FleetPartners is leading the industry in EV penetration for Novated. Let's now turn to Slide 7 to take a look at some of the numbers that underline the success of strategic pathways this year. Orders taken is a metric unimpacted by new car supply delays. For that reason, it provides a good indication of the underlying commercial activity across our business. It is, therefore, encouraging to see the record level of orders taken in 2H '23 at 1.6x pre-COVID levels. This is indicative of the robust customer demand we are continuing to see. With supply time starting to improve during the back half of the year, we saw these record order levels convert into strong new business writings. This was $440 million in the second half alone. Just as encouraging is our order pipeline. Despite the step-up in new business writings, the pipeline remains stable at 3x historic levels. This means the business was able to replenish the pipeline at the same rate it was being empty during the year. As supply continues to normalize, this record order pipeline will help underwrite new business writings and AUMOF growth next year. Let's now turn to the next 2 slides to examine the role electric vehicles are playing in driving this record level of demand we see today. The key take rate on this slide is that the introduction of electric car discount in Australia is proving to be extremely effective with driving the adoption of electric vehicles. Importantly, this is largely incremental to the demand we see for ICE vehicles. At a higher average purchase price, the growing penetration of EV vehicles, which was as high as 53% in September, is acting to increase our average lease value. That now stands at $61,000, a 24% increase from the start of 2022. The chart on the right illustrates my point that this recent demand in EVs appears to be incremental to that for ICE vehicles. That's a clear indication that as a Novated industry, we are seeing our market expanding. Turning to Slide 9. With respect to our focus, more and more are working with us as we position ourselves to play a key role in developing their decarbonization strategy. Our role today has evolved and is much more than simply being another supplier. The immediate opportunity lies with corporates that are either listed in Australia or New Zealand or have European-based headquarters. Government policy is certainly playing an important role in supporting the EV transition. So it comes as no surprise that we see our New Zealand customers further progressed, given the earlier introduction of government policies in that country. Now, to answer the question about what hurdles prevent more corporates embracing this change, we have listed 4 factors, which are at different stages of being overcome. The 2 biggest factors we currently see are fit-for-purpose options and vehicle charging. Nearly half of our portfolio is utility vehicles, where there is no viable EV available in the market today. In terms of charging strategy, this requires a complex and customized solution for most of our customers and to different degrees, are reliant upon the public charging network in each city. With that said, these hurdles are all temporary. In fact, we are solving these challenges for our customers every day. We also see the introduction of utility vehicles into our market on the near horizon. Let's now turn to Slide 10 for an update on the Accelerate program. Accelerate is a business transformation program that will deliver an annualized operating expense savings of $6 million by mid-FY '25. Pleasingly, the project is tracking to time and budget. This year, we accomplished all milestones under Wave 1. They include the successful transition of FleetPlus into FleetPartners in New Zealand, the rebranding of the group name to FleetPartners and the launch of our new website. We have also made good progress on the Wave 2 milestones, launching both our new dealer portal and our tighter payroll platform ahead of schedule. Finally, we have also been able to make an early start on a couple of Wave 3 milestones. Overall, we are happy with the progress being made and the positive impact these achievements have had on the group, including for our people. Let's now take a look at our share buyback program on Slide 12. We have permanently canceled 23% of share capital since the start of our program over 2 years ago. As I've already noted, today, we are announcing a further 4% or $30 million to be bought back. This buyback is at the top end of the capital payout ratio being 65% of NPATA. It takes our FY '23 buyback to $73 million at a payout ratio of 83%. The share buyback program is considered the optimal form of capital distribution in the absence of franking credits. I now want to sum up our progress with key ESG initiatives on Slide 12. ESG sustainability are central to the group's strategy and values. As an organization, we are proud of our progress. In November last year, the group published its inaugural sustainability report. Next month, when we release our 2023 sustainability report, you'll see we have advanced our framework is now aligned to both the global reporting initiatives and the task force on climate-related financial disclosures. We have found the work we have done in this space, along with preparing to comply with IFRS' S2 is opening new avenues for engagement with our customers around their own reporting framework. We hold [indiscernible] climate certifications in both Australia and New Zealand with Climate Active and Toitu, respectively. In doing so, we are the first and only FMO with both sets of climate certifications. And we continue to make good progress delivering on our commitments within our reconciliation action plan. Most importantly, I am proud of the passion our amazing team of FleetPartners causing to supporting our local communities each and every year. Let's turn to Slide 13. I think it neatly sums up the full year achievements. As clearly evidenced this morning, we continue to make good progress across our defined EPS growth drivers. We have a clear strategy to maintain EPS growth and a strong focus on executing to deliver it. Strategic pathways has delivered 13% new business writings growth, 7% AUMOF growth and a pipeline at 3x historic levels. This provides great momentum heading into 2024. The Accelerate program is running to plan, both from a timing and spend perspective. Accelerate is a business transformation project set to create value for both internal and external stakeholders, including the $6 million annualized operating expense savings by mid-FY '25. In relation to the buyback, we continue to optimize this program. 27% of share capital is expected to have been bought back after today's announcement. And as a result of all these pieces falling into place as planned, FleetPartners is positioned, as well as ever to pursue M&A opportunities as they arise. I will now pass across to James to talk through the financial performance.

Thank you, Damien, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 15. As Damien has discussed, new business writings grew 13%. This is a remarkable result in the context of significant supply constraints throughout the majority of FY '23. These constraints only began to ease towards the end of the year, and that was only for some vehicle types. Novated in particular was the standout, growing new business writings by 38% year-on-year, [ fourth quarter ] new business writings was up 77% on PCP. This significant growth was underpinned by the demand for EVs in the second half due to the electric card discount and the greater availability of EVs compared to ICE vehicles. Fleet new business writings grew 4.5%, driven by New Zealand where changes to the Clean Car Discount stimulated demand in the third quarter. Pleasingly, this new business writings growth did not see a significant drawdown on the order pipeline, which was replenished with new orders taken. As a result, the pipeline remains significantly elevated compared to pre-COVID-19 levels. Moving to AUMOF on Slide 16. As a result of the strong new business writings performance, AUMOF grew by 7%, due to the timing of new business writings in the period, which was weighted towards the back end when supply constraints began to ease, average AUMOF increased by 2%. The full year effect of that AUMOF growth will benefit FY '24. In line with the strategy we set out at our half year results, more new business writings has been directed into our own funding structures and away from P&A. This has seen our balance sheet funded AUMOF increased 17%. While this means we will earn lower funding commissions from P&A financiers in the short term, over time, those commissions will be replaced with net interest margin on the balance sheet funded leases, delivering a higher yield. To that end, balance sheet-funded AUMOF reached $1.4 billion at September '23. That's up from $1.2 billion at September '22, and we expect this trend to continue. Moving to our income statement on Slide 17. As we have highlighted previously, the FY '23 results reflect the unwinding of a number of COVID-related tailwinds that are now normalizing. The primary driver of this in FY '23 was the normalization of maintenance profits, which I'll talk about in more detail shortly. As a result, NOI pre-EOL and provisions margin returned to within the normalized range of 7.5% to 7.75% and was in line with our expectations being 4.5% lower than PCP. EOL remained strong at $73.7 million with profit per unit at $7,598. That's only 2% lower than the level seen in the second half of FY '22. Whilst profit per unit was strong, the number of units disposed reduced 13%. This was because vehicle leases were extended while customers wait for replacements. We believe that used car pricing will continue to reduce from the peak seen in February '22, but for now, pricing remains substantially above pre-COVID levels. Last year, provisions benefited from the release of COVID overlay. They're now back to more typical levels. And so, overall, NOI was $223 million, down 11% on PCP. OpEx was $84.5 million, in line with our expectations for the full year. This OpEx result demonstrates our strong cost discipline against the backdrop of significant growth in orders taken and new business writings and considerable inflationary pressure in both Australia and New Zealand. Putting all those components together, EBITDA was $138.5 million, down 19% and NPATA was $88 million, down 21% as per our expectations. Let's take a look at NOI pre-EOL and provisions margin on Slide 18. As we have highlighted in previous results presentations, NOI pre-EOL and provisions margin in FY '22 was higher than normal due to the benefits of a number of COVID tailwinds, and we expected these to dissipate over time. A key element of this was elevated maintenance profits during FY '22. During FY '23, maintenance activity normalized as customer fleet utilization returned to pre-COVID levels. We've also seen maintenance cost inflation and higher costs associated with aging vehicles in the fleet as customers wait on replacement vehicles. As a result, maintenance profits return to more normalized levels. The NOI pre-EOL and provisions margin for FY '23 was 7.72% towards the upper end of the normalized range of 7.5% to 7.75% I mentioned earlier. Management fees remain elevated but will reduce as supply constraints continue to ease and extended leases are replaced with new vehicles. This should be offset by higher net margin on orders in the pipeline as the September '22 funding margin increase continues to be passed through the back book as it's replaced. In the short term, as we discussed earlier, more new business writings will be balance sheet funded resulting in less upfront P&A funding commissions. This income will be replaced with net interest margin, but because this is earned over the term of the lease, it will take time to rebuild. So putting all those elements together, we expect margins to remain in the normalized range of 7.5% to 7.75% going forward. Turning to end of lease performance on Slide 19. Used car pricing remains well above pre-COVID levels. It peaked in February '22 and is gradually reducing, ticking around 25% below the peak at September '23. We still expect pricing to revert to around FY '19 levels over time. However, EOL per unit remained strong in FY '23 at $7,598, only 2% lower than second half '22. Whilst EOL per unit has remained strong, the number of units sold was down as customers reaching the end of their leases often have to extend while they waited for replacements. This reduced the number of vehicles available for disposal. As a result, units disposal were down 13%. As supply continues to normalize, we expect the number of vehicles disposed to increase back towards pre-COVID levels of around $12,000 to $13,000 per annum. And as used car pricing reduces, we expect EOL per unit to return to around $2,200 to $2,500. That would mean EOL of around $30 million per annum. However, predicting the timing of when new car supply and used car pricing return to normal remains challenging. While there have been recent improvements in supply in some vehicle types, we do not expect the normalization to be linear. Over the next few pages, I want to talk about the defensive qualities of our business that make it so resilient even through tougher economic cycles. This includes the credit profile of our portfolio and customer base; our access to funding and lack of exposure to interest rate movements; and finally, our strong cash flow performance. Let's start with portfolio credit quality on Page 20. FleetPartners provides business-critical assets for our corporate customers. And for our Novated customers, lease payments are made directly by the employer. This drives strong credit performance even through tougher economic cycles. The portfolio continues to perform very strongly, 90-day arrears reduced to 17 basis points at September '23, down from 35 basis points at March '23 and below our longer-term average of 36 basis points. As an external comparison, the average for Aussie prime mortgages, another high-quality asset class was 50 basis points. Our portfolio composition remains robust with 77% of the exposure to our top 20 customers being investment-grade, and our exposure to industries such as building construction, food services and retail remains limited. Putting all these factors together, we remain pleased with the composition of the portfolio and its continuing strong performance. Now, let's look at funding on Slide 21. Our long-standing and diversified funding platform remains a key differentiator. It provides access to private warehouses, public ABS markets and P&A funding. In terms of liquidity, we successfully executed a $350 million Australian ABS deal in March '23 and extended our Australian and New Zealand warehouses to September '24, with an immaterial improvement to cost of funds. As a result, we have sufficient capacity to support portfolio growth. This provides us with the flexibility to be opportunistic in accessing ABS markets. Our corporate debt revolving facility was extended to October '26 at a reduced cost of funds with no corporate debt maturities now until July '25. In terms of interest rate exposures, following the warehouse extension, funding margins are now set until the next extension in September '24. As a result, changes in interest rates don't impact the back book. Our new business is priced to reflect prevailing interest rates and funding margins. Our other interest rate exposure is in relation to our corporate debt, $35 million is exposed to variable rates. However, our cash balance of around $230 million to $250 million also earns interest at a variable rate. Therefore, any increase in rates is a net positive. For every 25 basis point increase in rates, there is an annualized $0.5 million benefit to PBT. Together with our net cash position of $22.6 million and undrawn $84 million revolver, our balance sheet is in a very strong position. Turning to Slide 22. Let's take a look at cash generation. The net cash flow for the year was $4.5 million. After adding back non-operational items, such as CapEx, repayment of corporate debt and the buyback, the organic cash generated by the business increases to $112.5 million. Comparing that against an adjusted NPATA of $91.1 million, the cash conversion for the year equals 123%. The main driver for cash conversion being higher than 100% is the tax shield driven by temporary full expensing of lease assets. This is expected to provide a cash flow benefit to the business until at least FY '26. So wrapping up the financials, FleetPartners has achieved a strong set of underlying results in FY '23, even as a number of COVID tailwinds dissipated, as we expected they would. The business has built up strong momentum and is very well positioned for the future, particularly as vehicle supply continues to ease. Moving to the operating segments now. I'll briefly take you through what we're seeing in terms of underlying demand, how that's translating to new business writings and our pipeline and our asset growth. I'll start with Fleet Australia on Slide 24. Demand picked up in the second half of FY '23, with orders taken increasing to 1.3x pre-COVID levels. The delays we've seen in new vehicle supply started to ease in the second half for some vehicle types. As a result, new business writings in the second half grew 23% compared to the first half. Despite the strong performance in the second half, supply for key vehicle types, such as [indiscernible] remains inconsistent. This continues to drive growth in our order pipeline, which reached 2.6x pre-COVID levels. AUMOF of increased marginally compared to September '22. However, balance sheet funded AUMOF increased 7% as less new business writings was P&A funded. Turning to Slide 25. Fleet New Zealand has achieved a strong increase in order activity throughout FY '23 and by the second half, had reached 2.1x pre-COVID levels, a significant achievement. This was a result of great commercial intensity resulting in a number of contract wins, but was also supported to a degree by changes to the Clean Car Discount from 1 July, which had the effect of bringing forward demand. We saw customers rushing to register both EVs and higher emission vehicles before rebates were reduced and fees were increased, respectively. This growth in order activity flowed through to new business writings in the second half, which increased by 30% compared to the first half. This saw a corresponding drawdown on the order pipeline, which closed the year at 3.7x pre-COVID levels. Fleet New Zealand AUMOF was up 9% and balance funded AUMOF was up 12%, a very strong result given the supply dynamics earlier in the year. Now, turning to Slide 26. Novated has had a standout year with orders taken in the second half reaching 2.2x pre-COVID levels. This growth is testament to the strength of the revitalized leadership team we have in place for Novated and our demonstrated ability to capitalize on the benefits we've seen flowing from the electric car discount. This legislation, which was passed in December '22, has stimulated strong demand for EVs under Novated leases, particularly in the employee base of our corporate customers. Despite the supply constraints earlier in the year, availability of EVs generally improved through the second half. We saw order activity translate to new business writings, which grew by 63% compared to PCP in the second half. We've also seen EVs grow to represent 42% of fourth quarter new business writings and 53% of new business writings in the month of September. That's an industry-leading level of penetration. The growth in new business writings for EVs is largely incremental to demand for ICE vehicles, which has remained stable quarter-on-quarter throughout FY '23. Given the level of orders taken and despite the huge increase in new business writings, the order pipeline remains elevated at September '23 at 4.6x pre-COVID levels. AUMOF increased by 12% compared to September '22, and balance sheet funded AUMOF increased 29%. The mix of AUMOF will continue to shift towards balance sheet funding. Fleet Choice customers who were previously P&A funded have been migrated to FleetPartners and new business is now being warehouse funded. We've seen exceptional growth across a number of key business metrics during FY '23. This is driving growth in new business writings and a late increase in AUMOF, the full year effect of which will benefit FY '24. Order pipelines remain well stocked. So in summary, we're well placed on all measures to deliver future asset and revenue growth as the supply chain continues to normalize. I'll hand back to Damien now to take you through the outlook for the group into FY '24.

Thank you, James. Let's turn to Slide 28 to discuss our expectations for next year. We expect NOI pre-EOL provisions to directionally follow the same trend as average AUMOF. You should note that the normalization of management fees and the temporary impact from funding more leases on balance sheet will act as a partial offset to that growth. However, even after factoring this in, our expectation remains that NOI pre-EOL and provisions will operate within the range of 7.5% to 7.75% as discussed on Page 18. End of lease income has been tricky to predict over the last few years. As used cars prices continue to reduce, so will end of the lease income, albeit somewhat cushioned by an increase in the higher number of used vehicles we sell. With respect to provisions, absent a material deterioration in economic conditions, we expect provisions to be in line with historic levels. The business has established a track record of having disciplined operating expense management, and this will continue in 2024. Operating expense is expected to be up 4% to 5%, similar to this year. The level of commercial activity we are seeing, the growth of our portfolio and the overall rate of inflation in the market are all contributing factors. Finally, all metrics below the EBITDA line are relatively stable. Let's turn to Slide 29 to wrap up today's presentation and then open the line for questions. Above all, we are very happy with the strength of this result, the financial position and the group's strategic direction. The operating environment remains good, and our customers continue to be very active. This is no more evident than in the record number of orders taken this year, the double-digit growth in new business writings and the size of our pipeline, which remains at 3x pre-COVID levels. Although we saw some improvement in the second half, supply is expected to remain a challenge next year, albeit to a lesser extent. As supply continues to normalize, our pipeline will help underwrite future new business writings and AUMOF growth and therefore, recurring income. As it relates to EOL, we continue to believe this will steadily reduce over the next few years to a recurring annual run rate of about $30 million. Our priorities are clear, and we are delivering on them. Strategic pathways is now well embedded and providing both new business writings and AUMOF growth. Our leading position in New Zealand has us well positioned to benefit from the EV transition and the opportunities it presents across the entire group. The Accelerate business transformation program will deliver, not only better outcomes for internal and external stakeholders, but annualized operating expense savings of $6 million by mid-FY '25. Our share buyback program continues. By the end of this year, we expect to have bought back 27% of share capital since the program began. As always, M&A is firmly in our strategic priorities, and we are well positioned if the right opportunities arise. Finally, we are demonstrating that what we are achieving from an ESG perspective is important to our people, it is important to our customers and our investors. FleetPartners today is exceptionally well positioned to manage any environment, and we have a lot to feel confident about. We have clearly defined EPS growth drivers with strong tailwinds heading into 2024. Our business model is defensive with very predictable annuity-like earnings, a strong balance sheet, a strong liquidity position and our risk remains very low. We are pleased with the way the business has capitalized on the disruption over the last few years and the tailwinds that, that has created, but make no mistake. We have also put the business on firm footing for longer-term growth, and we are already starting to see that in today's results. So with that, I will now hand over to the operator to manage your questions.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Tim Lawson from Macquarie.

Just a couple of questions from me. In terms of the yield, can you talk about the impact of maintenance given the sort of older age of the fleet at the moment?

Yes. Look, I think there's probably a few factors that have faded through maintenance this year. We've obviously come off the COVID period where the activity levels were considerably lower, and we've seen a bit of a catch-up on maintenance coming through there, plus the inflation rate pressures on just the cost of maintenance generally. But to your point there, there's also an aspect where we're seeing vehicles that have been in the fleet for longer while customers are waiting on replacement vehicles to become available. And obviously, the later in life, those vehicles are the higher the maintenance cost. So what we should see in due course is, as those vehicles are replaced with new business writings and the customer gets into a new vehicle, those older vehicles should reduce in the proportion that they're representing in the book and maintenance costs would reduce correspondingly.

Yes. Okay. That's clear. I appreciate you called out the reduction in -- or sort of the units, I suppose in EOL and the inventory is a little bit higher. Is that what's related to that? Is sitting on a few more vehicles through the end of the financial year?

Yes, Tim. Yes, that's just really just to provide the fact that towards the end of the year, what we did see is a freeing up of supply. So a lot more vehicles sort of coming back. So it's just a matter of trying to get through them and sell them in time.

Yes. And then one of your offshore listed competitors that has a domestic segment called out a relatively high proportion of sort of self-managed share in new business. I'm just wondering if that's too people converting from self-managed to an FMO. Just wondering if you've seen that as well.

Not a particular change, I guess, in the last sort of 6 to 12 months, Tim. But we do call out that our expectation around the transition to electric vehicles will stimulate that outsourcing.

Yes. Okay. And just the trend in EVs in the sort of quarterly progression continue to see that tick up in Novated. What are you seeing? Is that sort of stabilizing month-to-month? Or should we think that, that has room to continue to grow?

Yes. No signs of declining. So it's been pretty stable, I guess, post these results. One interesting sort of call out worth noting is, we recently were having a conversation with one of the larger EV providers in the market. And interestingly enough, they said only about 30% of their vehicle sales were through Novated. So it feels like there's still an opportunity there to do more or to take up more market share on the Novated side for those EVs.

Your next question comes from Phil Chippindale from Ord Minnett.

Just on the Novated side, Damien, you referred to growing the market here. I just wanted to unpack that a little bit more and just understand how you guys are positioning yourselves to maximize the opportunity. Are you really just focused on targeting penetration into existing employer basis? Or are you looking to add new clients? Just I'd like to understand sort of the priority sort of arrangement here.

Yes. In terms of the priority, it is just at the moment, Field is penetrating the existing customers that we have. We are seeing a big increase, which you can see on one of the pages we've got in here, where we sort of called out the growth in EVs compared to ICE. So there's a lot of opportunity for us just to continue down that path. But in addition to that, we are seeing some new employers coming to us that are looking to introduce Novated as a product for the first time off the back of just the demand they're getting from their employees because they realize the benefits of novating an EV.

And just to link this to one of your earlier comments, just a couple of months ago when you mentioned that large EV supply, we're seeing only 30% of their volumes get in Novated. So what's your attitude here? And how do you go about driving that penetration? Presumably, you've got a lot of growth potentially above that 30% level.

Yes. I guess, our view is that, any electric vehicle that's eligible to be Novated, should be Novated, it's certainly superior in terms of the benefits for the driver. So our strategy around that is largely through education. So just getting out to existing customer base and helping educate them in terms of what those benefits are.

Okay. Just the last one, just on the cost side of things with new business writings growth so robust. Can you just talk to headcount for your business and what you're looking at doing there? You've obviously referred to the OpEx growth of 4% to 5% into FY '24. Is some of that driven by some additional headcount perhaps?

Yes, that's right, Phil. So we're around about 500 heads currently. And so, what we've seen, yes, just with that demand on the front end for Novated that we put some additional consultants on to deal with the level of leads and inquiries that we're seeing. Obviously, a little bit of that then flows through to the back office in terms of credit and settlements. So we've had to support that growth there, obviously. So we've got a few extra heads that have come into that. The other side of that, there has been a little bit of inflation come through. But in terms of the growth rate year-on-year that we're at 5% growth in OpEx despite that considerable uplift in order activity and new business writings, we're pretty happy with that outcome.

Your next question comes from Scott Hudson from MST.

Sorry, just to maybe carry on from a couple of the previous questions. Could you maybe give us a sense of what your customer base growth was like in Novated? So I'm talking, I guess, new corporates or new relationships with regards to Novated leases?

Yes. In terms of customer base, yes, it's directionally in line with what we sort of felt on that page here, Scott, in terms of Novated, so you can kind of find a page...

I'm talking about like new corporate relationships as opposed to a new number of leases.

Yes. So look, there are a number of new corporate relationships. Our business development team obviously constantly out trying to onboard additional corporates. So I think it's probably been a mix of both improved penetration of our existing corporates, but equally adding more corporates on their employee base to the portfolio.

Okay. And then just on, I guess, fleet electrification. Obviously, New Zealand maybe seems ahead of us in terms of Australia. I mean, in terms of how we think about time frames for when we really start to see momentum in the Australian market, have you got any sense of whether it's 2 years away, 4 years away, 6 years away in terms of how we should be thinking about when we start to see any real movement on electrification of domestic fleets?

A little bit hard to predict. I think there's 2 catalysts that are on the horizon. The first one is the introduction of the fuel efficiency standards. So, the government has come out and sort of said they plan to sort of announce that by the end of this year. So it should come into effect at some stage next year. We think that will be one of the catalysts because it will drive a lot more optionality here in Australia in terms of availability of EVs. The second one -- the second catalyst is around some of the accounting standards that are coming down the pipeline as well. So I sort of called out the accounting standard I refer to as IFRS S2, which comes into effect in the 1st of July for some companies next year. That accounting standard talks about the fact that the companies need to start to talking about their plans to reduce their emissions. And I think that will also be a catalyst in terms of a lot of our customers, accelerating that pathway in terms of decarbonizing their fleets.

Your next question comes from Chenny Wang from Morgan Stanley.

Just the first one on the NOI pre-EOL. So helpful guidance in terms of like 7.5% to 7.5% (sic) [ 7.75% ] range. But just wondering if you could help us understand some of the swing factors outside of that range, maybe into FY '24 and FY '25, either both below or above?

Sorry, Chenny, just to clarify that. So I think our view is that, that normalized range is the long-term normalized range. So we're expecting to stay within the 7.5% to 7.75% range. There are a number of factors that we'll expect to play through over the next couple of years, but a number of those will offset. So we're pretty comfortable that we will remain within that range. Does that answer your question?

Yes, it does. Okay. So there's nothing really that you see that will materially kind of swing outside of that range? That was kind of...

Okay. Sorry. Yes. No, I don't think so. I mean, we're obviously working through that migration of the P&A piece to balance sheet funded, but that's going to be a fairly steady progression. Obviously, we've worked through the Fleet Choice bit through the second half of this year, and that will flow into next year. We'll then have the FleetPlus business, which will fold into FleetPartners post go-live with Accelerate. But we're talking relatively smallish amounts over a number of years. So that headwind, we think we'll be able to manage within that range. We've obviously got some organic improvements that we expect that our net margin as we continue to pass through that funding margin increase we saw in September '22. So whilst there's some ups and downs, we do expect to stay within that range.

Yes. Got it. And then just a quick one, maybe just back on EVs again, on the Novator side. Have you seen the mix of vehicle brands or types changing? I mean, obviously, I think Tesla was a pretty popular car brand kind of through the first, let's say, 9 months of the year. But have you seen any of that change?

No. The mix has been pretty consistent. So I think we called out in a previous presentation that our top-selling EV was the Tesla model Y and the Model 3 and the BYD ATTO 3 and then the MG. So they are sort of top 4, and that's been pretty consistent.

Yes. Got it. And then just last one quickly on that $25 million CapEx for the Accelerate program. Just remind us how much was spent in '23 and what's to come in '24?

About half. So we're about halfway through that $25 million spend.

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Richard Amland from CLSA.

Sorry, if someone has already asked this, I dropped out for about 45 seconds. Just regarding the EOL profits going forward, I think end of last year, we were sort of talking about a normalized run rate $30 million, and we expect it to get there around the end of fiscal year '25, given that things are holding up sort of better. What's sort of the view going forward? What should we be thinking in terms of that trend of normalization?

Yes. Richard, look, it is very hard to predict how it's going to play out. We're still pretty comfortable that we do think it's going to end up around about that $30 million level ultimately. There's a few things playing through the numbers at the moment. And you can see on Page 19 there, we've broken out the 2 components of EOL there between the actual profit we're making on the vehicle, but also the end of lease charges. And you can see that the profit is starting to reduce over the last number of halves. It's being supplemented at the moment by some higher end of lease charges per vehicle for those older vehicles that are coming back with more unfair [ wear and tear ] or excess kilometers, but also the units have been quite low. So what we're expecting over the next period of time is that, the units will pick up as the new business writings and supply improves. The profit per vehicle should continue to come down, so they'll have an offsetting impact. And so, we expect it will hold up reasonably well for a little bit longer. But then ultimately, once we've turned over those older vehicles, and we're back to a kind of normal level of in the book. We should see it reverting back to those kind of $30 million levels. So whether that's kind of FY '26, it's hard to say.

It just feels like it's pushing out, which is going to -- which is favorable for you guys. I'm just trying to get a sense of where we should take -- what our view should be vis-a-vis what we're talking about 12 months ago?

Yes. Look, I mean, again, we look at the used car prices and the actual index itself is fairly steadily reducing. It flattened off in the last number of weeks, but we do expect that to continue to trickle down. So I think that's I've got the best estimate at this stage.

Your next question comes from Sinclair Currie from NovaPort Capital.

I just had back on the net operating income margin before end of lease, question on that. I'm just presuming that at the bottom paragraph of Slide 18, high-yielding products referring to the Novated, is that correct assumption?

No. So yes, in terms of -- we don't expect to get back to the kind of FY '20 levels of margin. There have been a number of kind of steps we've taken around, so the Fleet Choice Northern Territory business that we call out in a few spots. We exited that, that was low margin for us. We've also really focused the business and some of the incentive arrangements around targeting fully maintained operating leases, which are our most profitable product. So it's just been a few things around that and just increased pricing discipline in the business in terms of the types of business that we write, making sure that we're disciplined around not chasing volume but making sure it's profitable growth. So that's why we've seen that increase over time. There have been COVID tailwinds that have benefited us, but there's also just been organic improvements in business operations over that time period as well.

And just to add to James' comments, if you think about the different products and which ones are more higher yielding the others, it's typically our operating leases. So Fleet Australia and Fleet New Zealand. That's led the high yield and the Novated to a lesser extent.

Okay, fine. And just a second question, sorry, I might have missed it. But around the strategy of transitioning away from P&A to on your own balance sheet. I mean, I presume that's something you've got a lot of discretion over how you transition that. If you've ever outlined what your strategy is, how -- whether there's some kind of guiding principle to how you're sort of seeing that roll off? Or is it just a term date? And apologies if this is well communicated by in the past. I was just it to understand how you're actually approaching that transition strategically?

Yes. No problem, Sinclair. So it is largely dictated by our existing ERPs in terms of how we funded that business historically. So actually FleetPlus and Fleet choice, given the ERP that those businesses were run on, it was primarily P&A funded. So as we complete Accelerate, and we move all business onto the new ERP, we'll actually have the capability of funding any given lease either through P&A or balance sheet funded. So we'll have a lot more optionality at that point. That said, from a Novated perspective, given the prevailing cost of funds that we're seeing from P&A finances for Novated leases in the market, that's significantly higher than the cost of fund through our warehouse. So for us, it makes sense to essentially fund as much Novated business through the warehouse as possible because it's high-yielding for us that we get a better spread on the interest rates. So Fleet Choice migrated over 1 April this year. So we'll get the full year effect of that coming through next year. And the remainder of Novated FleetPlus business will come over on completion of Accelerate at the end of FY '24. The P&A funding within the corporate book as well. And similarly, when the FleetPlus book comes over at the end of FY '24, we'll then have the optionality for that business as to whether we fund it on balance sheet or by P&A. It's a slightly different kind of construct on the corporate side, where certainly, there are customers where we're always P&A fund either large and they have a good credit rating and a relationship bank, we'll be able to get a good P&A funding rate for them. So we will continue to do that. We're not going to move everything to the balance sheet.

Okay. So just to finalize, I've taken from all of that, that you've got a good capacity to manage your margins going forward given those sort of levers you can pull. Is that a fair statement?

Yes, correct. Correct. We can manage it in a really orderly way.

Your next question comes from Tony Mitchell from Shaw and Partners.

Well done. I'd just like to ask you, you mentioned industry consolidation again. Is there any possibility of anything happening in that regard with FleetPartners?

Yes, the possibilities is what they have been for probably the last 12 to 18 months. So I'd say that the environment hasn't changed. We obviously have been pretty vocal in terms of the benefits that we see from it and the synergies that something like that would unlock. But at the moment, I'd say the landscape is unchanged from our last update.

There are no further questions at this time. Pardon me, sorry, Steven Yang from Macquarie Equities.

Just on the end of lease income. Just wondering whether there has been any type of vehicle mix impact in [Technical Difficulty] that result in the end of lease per units.

Sorry, the line was pretty bad, but it was the question just, are there any mix impacts on the end of lease in terms of the type of vehicle?

That's right. Commercial passenger, yes, just wondering whether there has been any change in mix.

No, no, there hasn't. And that's all been pretty stable. So if you go over the last couple of periods, the mix has been pretty consistent.

And just a second one, just in your media release, you note that the -- there's still that a name party that's looking to potentially buy a stake in FleetPartners. Have they bought anything on market yet?

Not that I know of.

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Berrell for closing remarks.

Thanks, Lexie. Thanks, everybody, for joining again this morning to go through our results. James and I, we look forward to catching up with everyone over the next couple of days and enjoy the rest of your day.

Thank you. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.