Flight Centre Travel Group Limited (FLT) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

February 24, 2021

Australian Securities Exchange AU Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants and Leisure earnings 101 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Haydn Long

executive
#1

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today for Flight Centre's half year results presentation. Today, I'm joined by Skroo, our Global MD or CEO; Adam Campbell, our CFO; and the man of the match in Flight Centre's touch game last week; Chris Galanty, our Global Corporate CEO; and Melanie Waters, our Leisure CEO. Skroo will start and finish things off, but in-between, there'll be a sandwich of Adam, Chris and then Mel. I'll now hand over to Skroo.

Graham Turner

executive
#2

Thank you, Haydn. Yes, it's been a tough year. We've obviously had the COVID-19 challenge. But I think how we weathered it, we're reasonably happy with so far. We've certainly lowered our cost base substantially, down 70% or so. And we're still generating revenue in -- particularly in the domestic only. But also if you look at December, it was growing from the previous months up to December. It looks like January was down a little bit on December, but that was because of the disruptions we had. And generally, we've achieved month-on-month reductions in our cash outflow. I think it was $30 million outflow in December, which we're reasonably happy with it. It gives us an extended liquidity runway, of course, of about $1.2 billion-plus by December 31. So now for the recovery phase. We're obviously a leaner and a more efficient organization now with a lengthy liquidity runway. As I said, we've tried really hard to maintain and retain our key assets, people and develop that technology during this time. And obviously, we've got a lot of leisure assets and corporate assets. We're a fairly diversified organization as well as our in-destination. So we're pretty confident we can benefit from the travel recovery over the next 12 months. And we're confident also we can grow market share, particularly in leisure but also in corporate. So some of the positive signs are starting to emerge. First of all, we're pretty sure there's really good pent-up demand. We saw this in December when the borders were lifted in Australia and we had some record days there, particularly online. So the demand is there once the borders open. We're certain of that. Even some of our smaller businesses are profitable. I think we've made mention the UAE has been profitable for some months. The My Holiday's brand in Australia is profitable the last 2 months. And obviously, 99 Bikes or the Pedal Group had made significant profits in this last year and Flight Centre owned 48% of that. We think there'll be accelerated second half TTV recovery in corporate. Now this will be particularly important in domestic travel, where there is a big domestic market such as in North America and Australia as long as the borders generally stay open, and we're pretty confident it will. We've seen the vaccination programs working well, particularly in North America again and the U.K., and they're starting to look like they're getting some really good results. And as we know, vaccinations just started in Australia. And the vulnerable people will be fully vaccinated by the looks, by the end of June, which means that not only domestic travel should be able to start again, but we should see international study -- international travel starting soon after that. The next slide, you'll see the vaccination programs, the impact of the vaccination programs. And this is a few days old now, but I think we've heard a fair bit about both the United Kingdom and the States in the success rate there. So these look good. There's still some challenges, of course, with the South African variant, but it looks like the Pfizer vaccine is very effective against all these variants. So some of the other key drivers on the road to recovery is obviously domestic borders opening and staying open, then some selected international routes, which -- initially, it will probably be in the South Pacific and Asia during -- possibly even during the end of this financial year. And then obviously, broader border openings early next financial year, somewhere between July and September, November, we believe. So the road to recovery, it's obviously about the vaccination programs gaining momentum in our part of the world. And that's particularly North America, EMEA, Australia and New Zealand and obviously parts of Asia. The second one -- and that should happen pretty much by end of March this financial year. Certainly, the last quarter in this financial year, the end of June, we'll have every vulnerable Australian vaccinated, and that will help with mortality and hospitalizations if another infection comes into Australia. And obviously, both North America and U.K., Europe will be heavily vaccinated by then as well. And in the second 6 months of this calendar year, we will see a level of herd immunity in most of these major countries that have had this vaccination program or indeed with the U.K. and Europe and North America where they've had a heavy rate of infection, which will help the herd immunity, which means that generally, travel can start, international travel can start returning to normal. So that's basically the story. Adam now will give you some overview of the results. So thank you. Adam?

Adam Campbell

executive
#3

Yes. Happy to, Skroo. Happy to. So as you said, the reported results for the period that we are putting out are pretty much in line with our expectation and consistent with the market disclosures that we've put out there in August and then again at our AGM in November. The underlying loss was $247 million after adjusting for the sale of the Melbourne head office and the various one-off costs that are incurred in reducing our fixed cost base. Details of all of those adjustments are detailed throughout the PowerPoint and also in the Appendix 4D. So I won't go too much into the them here at the moment. TTV, as Chris said, for the period, continued to grow month-on-month throughout the period, with total TTV of around $1.5 billion, representing around 12% of previous volumes. Our corporate brands on average represented 16% of previous volumes and leisure at 7%. Although TTV was directly impacted by ongoing border closures, we [ continue to ] see immediate rebounds in bookings when those borders reopen. And our TTVs in December was the highest level since the pandemic lockdown commenced in March 2020, which is a good result for us. Our revenue margin, again, as expected, fell to 10.4% overall. And this reflects both the domestic and corporate travel weightings that we're currently seeing. Overall, corporate revenue margins increased slightly over the period, with the majority of the margin decline seen in leisure as a result of the reduction in touring revenue, the traditionally disproportionate domestic volumes that we're seeing and increased online transactions. We do anticipate that leisure margins will stabilize at around 10% over the next 6 months and then increase as international travel returns, ensuring revenue recommences. We have a strong focus at the moment and have had for some time in those items under our control, and that's included the continued discipline over cost control in this low revenue environment. The continued growth in revenue month-on-month combined with this cost discipline has been our operating cash outflows of $97 million in July 2020, reduced to $40 million in September and then further reduced to $30 million in December. Our liquidity has been strengthened during the period by the sale of our Melbourne head office as well as the issuance of $400 million in convertible notes last November. So with $1.7 billion in cash, over $1.2 billion in liquidity and cash outflows of around $30 million a month, we feel that we're in a position to weather even the most pessimistic modeling of macro conditions for an extended period. And if the positive signs that we're now seeing at a macro level eventuate, as expected, we'll be in a good position to use our liquidity to accelerate key investments or capitalize on other opportunities. We've included a normal liquidity position table in the PowerPoint, which most of you should be well familiar with by now, knowing that there's no major changes in either our working capital assets or liabilities since we last reported these at the AGM. We've also continued to invest in our future. In the first half, we invested around $21 million in CapEx, which is pretty much fully incurred on technology enhancements to bring new and differentiated products to market, to make travel safer and easier for our customers and to improve productivity. Mel and Chris will talk to a number of these investments in their sections, including Melon, Helio and SOAR. We've spoken to some elements of the P&L already. So I'll just point out an additional slide that we've included that highlight the underlying movement in our key cost lines. This just highlights the impact of the cost reduction programs that we've implemented over what was a relatively short period of time. And you'll see in there, as an example, that our employee benefits cost line has reduced by around 64% over the period. On the balance sheet, we've had a strong collection -- had strong collections with our receivables. And it's been pleasing to see that we've had no significant write-downs of debtor balances, and our debt -- bad debt expense for the period has remained at our traditionally low levels. We've now finalized documentation for the new bilateral debt facilities that were agreed late last year, which is 3-year facilities with no -- none of the normal covenants coming in until the 31 December 2022 reporting period. And it was really pleasing to see ANZ, Westpac, HSBC, all providing such strong support to us over the period. On our cash flow statement, the operating cash outflows represent our normal monthly operating cash flows for the period, the unwind of our working capital balances over the half, and the one-off costs that we incurred in reducing our fixed cost base. I'll now hand over to Chris to talk through our corporate brands in a bit more detail.

Chris Galanty

executive
#4

So today, I'm just going to talk a bit about our first half and the strategic objectives that we've achieved and why we're very confident about our ability to capitalize on them, moving into the second half and beyond. The first thing I wanted to reiterate, something I've mentioned before, is that what we are seeing is a very clear pattern. As soon as the customers can travel for business, they do travel. We originally saw this in our Chinese domestic business. That was the first market. We've since seen in other domestic markets, such as Australia, for example. As soon as borders open domestically, people travel. And talking with our customers extensively over the last year, they have made it very clear to us that will apply as international borders open too. So I'm just going to focus on our key priorities. The first one is to win and retain customers to grow market share. The second is to successfully launch our new digital product, Melon, in our Corporate Traveller brand and deploy the brand business model shift in all markets globally. The third is the continued progression of our FCM Truly Global business plan, which includes the deployment of our brand-new FCM digital platform. The fourth is to invest in data science capability to enable more customer-centric decision-making and improve our commercial returns. Fifth is to increase productivity gains through the deployment of robotics and artificial intelligence technology platform. This is really important that as we bring our staff back, we won't be returning to our previous staff numbers. We are in a position to get significant productivity gains throughout the corporate business. And finally, to improve our travel content supply aggregation and pricing to generate customer savings and improve commercial returns. So I've showed this slide before in presentations. This is a customer value proposition. We have a 2-sided model. We address the market uniquely with 2 brands. In the large market space and enterprise space and government space, we use our FCM brand. And in the start-up to medium enterprise space, we use our Corporate Traveller brand. And this approach is unique in the marketplace, and we believe it is a winning approach. And today, I really want to point out how we're winning, where we're winning and why we're winning. And this is a really important part of why we're winning. Each of our brands has a completely tailored solution to their customer segmentation. And for example, in FCM, customers really care about global scale and consistency, very important to them. They're trading in many markets. But they also really appreciate the flexibility that we bring to market. In Corporate Traveller, we use a term called Care Uplifted. And this is really the experience we can give customers through consumer-grade, simple-to-use technology, and very personalized experience using our travel experts. And again, this approach of 2 brands is one of the reasons we do win so much business. Looking at our geographic spread. We are in 100 markets, 23 of which are equity. We have -- we're in 10 of the top 16 global markets, it's full equity. And where we're not -- where we don't have full equity, we have very strong partners. And we, as a business, control the design, solution design for customers, implementation of the program, service level agreements, the data and our partners use their own technology. So it's a very integrated and consistent experience for our customers across the world. And this presence across the world is what enables us to deliver to enterprise customers. And we're one of the very few TMCs that can actually do that. So with our Grow to Win strategy, we very much said we wanted to keep investing in the business. We did make some very tough cuts this year, as Adam highlighted, that we were very keen to keep investing throughout the COVID period. And one of the rationales behind that was we wanted to win more business. Now with our FCM sales update, we talked about FCM because it's our contracted business. Typically, as we sign the customer, it's for 3 or 5 years. However, we always expect at least 2 cycles. So a 5-year customer is actually normally a 10-year customer. And what we're doing here for the first time is not just talking about our wins, but also looking at our sales pipeline. I'll explain that in the moment. And the wins is a very positive story for us. We've won just under USD 700 million of signed business. That's annual signed business so far this year. And although we don't expect the customers to trade at full levels this year, we are, again, signing 3- or 5-year contracts, and we do expect it to get up to those levels during the length of the contract. And there's lots of very well-known names here. The Foreign Commonwealth & Development Office, part of the U.K. government, the current commercial services business that we signed, Ashar, Electronic Arts, the computer games guys, Spotify, KPMG in a couple of key European markets, Bosch, Tupperware, JTI, margins some new markets where we didn't have them, CMA, AXA, JLL, so lots of companies that you would have known. We've also importantly retained lots of customers. I think our retention rate is close to 99% in FCM this year, which we get as a new high. And we have secured 3 of our top 5 customers were out for bid this year. We signed all 3, and that includes the New South Wales government. Looking at the sales pipeline. The reason we can keep winning businesses -- this is not just a one-off exercise. We really work on these leads for many years. It shows the strength in marketing and our sales capability. So at the top of the funnel, we have a lead generation where we work with potential customers years as long as they're RFP. And today, we have USD 25 billion of contact with customers where we're talking to them about FCM. We're explaining our customer value proposition, why they should consider us the RFP. The RFP proposal stage itself, we have over $1 billion, $800 million shortlisted, and in final negotiations where we're down to the last 2, sometimes down to the last one, awaiting Board approval. We've got over $500 million of sales. So that's why we keep winning, it's a very strong pipeline. You can see the new wins year-to-date evenly spread around the world, but a big focus on both EMEA and Americas, which is good news for us because they appear to be the regions where the vaccines are progressing fastest. And you can see on the right side on the pie chart, we've actually got a bit of a change in approach here, a real focus on government this year in manufacturing, which are 2 segments we haven't been that heavily focused on previously. So as they have a high propensity to travel throughout any circumstance, we've really refocused on them and are actually getting some great wins, not just the U.K. government, but also a lot of business in the French government as well. So we've proven that we can win in government, which is going to be a big area of growth for us moving forward. So some of the product we bring to market. We're very excited this year about Melon. Melon is a new digital platform which brings consumer-grade mobile technology using robotic artificial intelligence to give the best experience to customers, very simple to implement and implemented, in hours rather than weeks and is on -- in use with customers today in the U.S. It's going to a full market launch in April in the U.S. and then to rest of the world throughout '21, so something we're very excited about there. And certainly in FCM, our FCM platform, which is going live globally in 2021 as well across all of our markets. So what we're doing in both of these brands, we're bringing 2 brand-new products to market. And again, that's a testament to the investment we've made throughout this year. It's working closely with customers to understand their new needs in the post-COVID world and making sure our products are market-ready and in fact ahead of the market in both brands. So we're very excited about this. Our customers are very excited about this. And you'll hear a lot more about that as this year goes on. So this final slide from my section, I really just want to give a one-page summary of our business and our investments and how we're winning. So at the top, you can see our 2 corporate brands. We have only 2 brands globally. And they focus on different segments of the market, 2 very differentiated brands, both of which are going through a relaunch in the next couple of months. We -- each of those brands have their dedicated product, so Melon for Corporate Traveller, and the FCM platform for FCM, so unique, bespoke, proprietary technology that gives the best-in-class experience for those customer types. Both very different in terms of the user experience, implementation times that's perfectly suited for those customer types. We then have our sales and marketing machine behind those products, and again, dedicated sales and marketing for Corporate Traveller and FCM but very much shared capability with our global marketing team who service both brands from a technical perspective, such as digital marketing. And then below that, we -- is where all of us shared [ work in FCM ], and often, in many cases, shared with our leisure business as well. I mean we work very closely between corporate and leisure to make sure that capability is shared, content is shared and best practice is shared. And Mel will touch on some of that in her section. But our intelligence layer here is where all the magic happens. So this is really the robotics, the data side, the artificial intelligence, the pricing analytics, where we use lots of proprietary skills and technology to make sure we get the right content and the right price to the right customers. And this is a big change for us. Again, a big investment this year, but it means for the first time, we're moving from just having transactional and financial data to behavioral data as well, which really enhances our ability to give a better experience, better savings and better commercial returns for us. And this is very common with many modern platforms around the world. The Amazons and the Spotifys, et cetera. But it is the first time we're using this level of analytics and data, and we expect it to be a game changer for our business. Below that, we then have content and supply. And again, we've made some significant investments in this area with leisure to make sure we can get the best content and the most appropriate content into our customers' hands, into our consultants' hands when our customers are booking offline. Our strategic investment in TPConnects has meant that we can bring all their content, so all private net content that we've negotiated with carriers, customer private content that we've negotiated for our customers on their behalf, published fares, NDC content. And I think we're leading the world with NDC, certainly according to many airlines at the moment in the business world. And this means that we can bring as NDC grows and is growing across the world. We can bring private and public NDC content and low-cost carrier content all through the one API into our Melon and FCM platforms. And this really is a huge advance from where we've been before but also where we see any of the industry at the moment. And TPConnects will be powering Melon and the FCM platform this year. And also I've already mentioned it has exactly the same functionality but for land hotels. Again, all the different hotel content available aggregated and brought into our products. And then finally, we remain a people business. Yes, we have the best technology and our customers tell us that. That's one of the reasons we win. But they also tell us -- now I talk to customers every week, the -- are really that our people, our culture, our approach to doing business, that's what they love about both Corporate Traveller and FCM. And that culture remains incredibly important, and we've spent a lot of time throughout the pandemic, keeping as many of our people on board as we can, certainly keeping our A team on board and making sure they're empowered, they're motivated. And importantly, they're kept up-to-date with all the investments we're making and they remain in contact with our customers. So that's the summary from me. I'll hand over to Mel on leisure.

M. Waters-Ryan

executive
#5

So good morning, everyone. Thanks, Chris. I've just put a recent Instagram post from Flight Centre. It's the first slide in my section, which I think sums up how a lot of us and our customers are feeling. And that is that we all want to travel. I think everyone I speak to at the moment is desperate to get on a plane and go somewhere. So just -- I'll just spend a few minutes talking from a group leisure perspective and give you a brief strategic overview and progress on the key initiatives and investments that we are making that we believe position us to recover and win in leisure travel as we come out of the pandemic, regardless of how long and what that path to recovery is. And I think there is no doubt that leisure travel will recover. We know that connecting with family, friends, places, et cetera, is the core expectations of humans, particularly in the markets that we operate in. There is no doubt, however, that there is limited revenue generation as restrictions have been put in place over the last year. And as you -- I think Adam mentioned in the leisure segment result, we have less than 10% of pre-COVID volumes partly for the first half. We have, however, been able to accelerate our transformational plan, which I think you would all remember we've had ongoing for some years. We now have a greatly reduced and sustainable cost base while maintaining key assets. We still have a very good shop network with a reach. 95% of our Australian Flight Centre customers, even after our reduction in the network, still live within a 5-kilometer access of a shop. We also are very much focused on our investment in future growth drivers and global capability to power our key brands in leisure as the same, as Chris has outlined with corporate. Early signs also support that we have made the right choices with our plans and strategies are, in fact, gaining momentum. We are holding or, in fact, increasing market share whenever the travel did rebound after restrictions were lifted. And we saw that particularly in markets like South Africa and Australia, a bit hard to tell in New Zealand because it's such a restricted domestic market there. But domestic sales in Australia exceeded the prior year levels within 2 days of the Queensland announcing its borders opening back in November. That was quickly reversed in December when they shut them again. But you can see as soon as, Chris mentioned, customers can travel, they do travel. Also, some of our newer models that we had made acquisitions for in the last years and we're continuing to invest in, particularly in our online supply and call centers, are also showing more solid growth than our traditional business as the market opens up. In fact, our Ignite call center in Australia, which we only completed that transaction, I think, late 2019 is, in fact, one of the first leisure businesses globally to return to profit in January of this year, driven by domestic and cruise sales and looks like February, in fact, will be even better. On the next slide. I actually think that this is an important to note and now answer the question that I probably get asked the most about in our leisure business. And that is how will we recover our volumes with half our previous shop network now in place. And the answer is we have maintained our leisure reach and global footprint whilst reducing brands and shops and increasing and, in fact, rebalancing our channels. As I mentioned, this was a strategy we had commenced pre-COVID to address both changing consumer needs and preferences as well as clearly the cost issue that we had in our leisure business pre-COVID. However, we are still in 7 markets. We were in 7 markets pre-COVID. We still hold the #1 market share position in Australia, New Zealand and South Africa, and we intend to grow that, and we still have a targeted specialized offering in the Northern Hemisphere. We believe we have the right footprint to grow from. We've just managed to reduce our overweight shop model over the period of 2020, which was going to take something like 3 to 5 years. I just thought I'd reiterate quickly our global leisure strategy. This is not a new slide -- you've seen it before, and how we are addressing that leisure market. Essentially, we've very much narrowed it to 3 major pathways built around some shared core global capabilities. But as I've said, we're taking this downturn period to accelerate the development of and is where we still continue to make prudent investments, I might add, not earth-shattering one, but we're spending wisely. So our 3 core leisure strategies revolve around the mass markets with Flight Centre and really rejuvenating that brand to be a multichannel, mass traveler retailer with irresistible deals and savvy personal service. And that is very much our #1 strategy. Our second strategy has been in the premium and luxury space. We're using our brands of travel associates and Laurier Du Vallon in Canada. We intend to become the most distinctive premium luxury boutique travel brand in-market with superior service and expertise. And then our third core strategy is to become the home of the travel entrepreneur or #HOTTE as it's known internally. So we want to be the leading network and product proposition for member and mobile travel professionals, essentially the independent contractor and affiliate marketplace. We also have, I call it, a bit on the side, a very small suite of complementary yet independent brands. But again, that has been severely rationalized over the last year. Like Chris, I've got a similar slide here and I won't go through all the layers, but you can see that a core leisure backbone is really what's powering those core brands of Flight Centre and Travel Associates and, in fact, our B2B aspirations as well. And I'll just take a moment. You can see the bottom 3 layers are very much the same as corporate. And Chris mentioned that we work together globally to ensure that our people and culture, which is now 40 years old for Flight Centre, in fact, this year. Skroo, I think we turned 40 this month. And with top deck obviously goes up to something like 50 years, but really ensuring that we are still a people and cultural brand for a business with a distinctive entrepreneurial performance-based approach. Our content and suppliers, also, we have a long history of great supplier relationships, which is now very much enhanced with digital capability across 2 core aggregating platforms. We share the same platform with air, with corporate, the TPConnects, one that Chris has gone through, and we have a platform in leisure called Helio, which we've accelerated the rollout of and, in fact, we'll complete the global rollout by May of this year. Supported with an intelligence layer. And again, Chris mentioned, this is hugely important because no longer are we using the individual, the consultant and their expertise to help work out what products we should put in front of what customers when and how, but we're using data, robotics, artificial intelligence and real analytical strength to improve that. On the top of our kind of platform is our models, which we've now centered on 4 core models. Our shop model, which most of you are well aware of, which operates with both Flight Centre and Travel Associates, our new call center model, our independent contractor and affiliate model and, of course, e-commerce. We also, with our products and marketing have really transformed and industrialized our product design and merchandising, ensuring that we leverage that collective travel brain, that data and analytical capability on behalf of our customers. And therefore, with our key brands of Flight Centre and Travel Associates deliver a superior customer experience for our famous and well-positioned brands to win in the marketplace. Over the history of leisure, a lot of this kind of work was actually done discretely within brand and country. Over 2020, as we said, we've taken the opportunity to transform this, industrializing it, digitizing it, automated it -- automating it and ensuring that it's shared across all of our regions instead of being replicated in many. I'm just going to spend a few minutes just going through some of our core strategies very quickly. As I mentioned, our first core strategy is Flight Centre. It is our iconic brand, and it is where most of our energy is going into -- in 2 key pathways of rejuvenating the brand, externally from the customer's perspective and internally from our operating models. And again, good progress is well underway. We will win with Flight Centre by combining what Flight Centre has become famous for, great value travel deals with great people. What we've been working along is making it multichannel. And as I said, are very pleased with the progress. So we've been working on a rejuvenated and modernized brand, and you'll see us launch a new, refreshed brand in about April and May of this year depending on when borders mean that it's worthwhile to spend the money. It's become very customer-driven through those data and analytics with a customer center now ensuring that we really drive the customer metrics through everything we do. We've created the product design house, which was that industrializing of the products we take to market again, on the Helio platform, which we've accelerated and got out over the last year. And the other thing is really winning in the under 40s where we were, in fact, doing fairly poorly prior to COVID. Funnily enough, necessity is the mother of invention. And because of our lower marketing spend, we've been very strong in digital, social channels over the last year, hence the Instagram post I had earlier, which, of course, is the domain of the under 40s, and it's really helping us move along in gaining market in that space as well. In fact, Flight Centre has a TikTok now, has a TikTok presence. So there you go, if you're interested in sort of Flight Centred answers. On an operating model, we've also gone to those 4 models. As I said, everyone all knows about our world-class shop network, which is now of the right side. We also have a sales center, which we've just kicked off on the Gold Coast for Australia, leading in terms of being very deal-driven and with specialized consultants on a very strict call center operating model, really focused on new customer acquisition. Our independent contractor is also available in the marketplace in all Flight Centre brand jurisdictions apart from the U.K. and of course, our self-service or e-commerce model. So again, much progress in the last few months. I've got a slide there specifically on our online strategy. I won't go through it, but suffice to say, we are really expanding and investing in our proprietary store parts platform, which I think Adam mentioned, and really bringing together the deals, our people and that technology across connected channels. One thing that will be a first is our new Helio platform allows open source access. So a customer will be able to book online, and our consultants will be able to also work within that booking for the packages when they become available to book at a few months' time. There are some examples there of our new online website, our mobile app and our searches. We actually upgraded our DIY hotel capability, where we've been very soft in the marketplace. Next is our premium, including moving to a more luxury strategy. And again, that's well underway with our brands of Travel Associates and Laurier Du Vallon. And again, these brands were delivering good metrics prior to COVID. It's just the growth was somewhat suppressed. We've now moved to differentiate them more away from the mass brand of Flight Centre throughout most of the world and Liberty in the Americas. Although we're leveraging group technology and travel content as well as people, we're really working to give them product and customer distinctiveness with leading customer value propositions. Again, I won't go through it but one of the first things we've done with differentiating the product in our premium space is we've partnered up with Virtuoso. We're, as we speak, launching that partnership across our entire Travel Associates network in Australia and New Zealand, which gives our premium and luxury customers access to unique products that they would -- and amenities that they would not get elsewhere. Again, we're moving forward with different models, and we've launched the @Home with Travel Associates, which is the independent contractor in our premium space. Our next major strategy with the B2B, which, again, I mentioned, we're already gaining much traction somewhat in part to the lack of confidence in some markets with their current household consortia. In some instances, we've seen some collapse. There was a collapse in South Africa of a major competitor. But also due to our leading content, technology and brand strengths that we're able to offer independents and affiliates. And what's nice is our entrepreneurial culture really dovetails into being that we can become the home of the travel entrepreneur. Our intent is to become a leading independent operator in Australia, New Zealand and South Africa, again with some very targeted offerings in the Northern Hemisphere. I think you can see there also some of our offers that we've got in marketplace, where again, our different brands. One of the things we are doing that's different in this space is allowing our Flight Centre and Travel Associates brands to also offer a referral model, which means we'll be able to generate and give leads to our independent agents as well as allow us the flexibility in peak periods of having an overflow to those guys. And finally, in leisure, we have, as I said, a very small suite of complementary and independent brands which are getting very little investment, but because of the accelerated nature of how they were going pre-COVID and are showing early signs of recovery particularly with StudentUniverse and the My Brands portfolio within Ignite, are proving to offer some good opportunities for recovery. Studentuniverse was doing solid levels of pre-COVID TTV and with [ the exhibitor ] of STA in this space, we have strong aspirations to become the #1 student end-use business in travel in the world. As I said, My Brands is also doing very well because they were able to pivot to a domestic and cruise offering and, in fact, are already profitable in the early part of '21. BYO and Travel Money are essentially in hibernation, but again, we'll be looking to bring those businesses back as the market recovers. In summary, we believe our reduced physical portfolio, diversifying our models, our investments in technology and product powered by our great culture and more importantly -- or most importantly, our famous brands, strongly position us to recover and win in leisure travel. So thanks. Back to Skroo.

Graham Turner

executive
#6

Thanks, Mel. I'm actually feeling a bit exhausted after that. I can't believe everything is going on. Look, I just mentioned some of our other businesses that haven't been talked about, the in-destination, we call the Travel group. The first one is Discova Destination Management. It's DMC. It's going great guns, our hotels, mainly in Southeast Asia, and obviously, our tour operations, which is Topdeck and Back-Roads, which currently in hibernation. We're planning to run a small program late 2021, mainly with customers from the U.K., Europe, but hopefully also some from Australia and New Zealand. One of the businesses that most of you know -- Flight Centre has a -- I think it's a 48% share of is -- is the Pedal Group, which is 99 Bikes. And mainly because of the pandemic, it's gone pretty well. For example, I think it made under $18.5 million in the financial year ending June 2020, but it's expecting probably a $45 million profit before tax this year, which is pretty good. We're looking at ongoing expansion. There's more shops. I think we've got about 55 shops in Australia and 5 in New Zealand, but we are looking at London at the moment to grow that. And so that's a really good story, and it is very -- it's quite closely associated Flight Centre. A lot of the use of the Flight Centre systems and the way we do things here. So that's one of the positive stories out of the pandemic. AVMIN as well. It's our charter operation. We have a 50% -- is it 50%? Or 50% of ownership of that, and it's been going very well. It's quite profitable. A lot of it's because of the movies being done out here in Australia, and we're getting charters out mainly from the States. And Travel Junction is our B2B hotel operation, which we're selling our contracts into other people who buy this sort of thing. So that's -- it's a small operation but being quite successful during this pandemic period. Just moving on to guidance and expectations. Look, we've got a stable cost base now. We're reasonably happy. We don't have to grow that until we get more revenue coming back. So -- but we still have retained most of our IP, most of our people that are very important, ongoing as things come back. We can't provide guidance for '21, but you will see from the first half, it's going to take a little bit of time to get back to where we'd like to be breakeven and then profit. We're expecting domestic recovery in places like Australia and the U.S., Canada a little bit later. And the same with Europe and U.K., a little bit later in this half of the year. But that will be domestic. And I think you've heard, those of you in Australia that the premiers and the health offices are basically saying they don't want to shut down the borders anymore. We'll see if that's true or not. And we're reasonably confident that there will be international travel. You heard Boris this morning -- on Tuesday morning, it was, saying that he expects international travel to return out of the U.K. in May. And we're looking at probably a similar timetable in North America. Asia is a bit harder to predict. But certainly in Australia, we would expect it after all the vulnerable people have been vaccinated by the end of June that international -- some international travel will start to resume. So we're certainly looking forward in the second half of this calendar year. Some of the trends in the second half of in FY '21. January ended up in line with expectations given the fact that there was a lot of lockdowns and -- not only in Australia, of course, but in places like the U.K., although vaccinations, it started in earnest. There was still a fair bit of uncertainty in a lot of places. So it wasn't a great month. People are tending to book closer to departure now for obvious reasons. I think one of the things that we're very good at is our relations with suppliers. We put a lot of effort not only in Australia but around the world in our relationships with our suppliers to make sure that as things come out of this pandemic, we've got a long-term, secure relationships with the people, the airlines, the tour operators, the hotels, the hotel chains that we can really work well with. There's no doubt there's going to be some market consolidation, not that we wish this on anyone, but inevitably, there's going to be a lot of small businesses not going to survive this almost regardless of what governments do. There will be some M&A opportunities. There will be business closures, and we're obviously in a good position to take any advantage of this. Obviously, the vaccination is a big thing, widespread rollouts in our markets, particularly in North America, in U.K., and to a less extent in Europe and now starting in Australia and New Zealand and obviously parts of Asia. So that's quite important. And this is going to be -- someone said it's not a silver bullet. But assuming the vaccinations work, it should be a silver bullet. There are still some issues, of course, with variants and that, but we don't know the exact answers of this. So post-pandemic travel would be anything but normal. But do you want to say any more about this Haydn?

Haydn Long

executive
#7

I might hand over to Chris as the expert on some of this stuff.

Chris Galanty

executive
#8

So look, as Mel and I both said, in leisure and corporate, when people can travel, they will travel. That's the evidence we're seeing. However, it seems pretty clear to us that travel will be different in a post-COVID world. And we use this, we saw this after September 11 where the whole industry had to adapt globally. And we've been working very closely with both governments and industry bodies, such as IATA, to make sure that we are getting protocols in place that enable international travel to start again. And as what's been very common in the pandemic across all sectors is that technology is going to play a very important role in this. So some of the trends we've been seeing is the duty of care, which really say travelers' safety in leisure, but due to COVID in corporate is a major factor now in determining travel. In fact, 42% of our customers now say that it's their top priority, which is massively up from pre-COVID and is more important than things like price than user experience, et cetera. So this is -- this really means that travelers get the right -- the appropriate information at the right moment in their -- throughout their travel journey. And again, technology is very used there. Enhanced testing. Some governments are really looking at enhanced testing as part of the getting international travel happening again pre and post travel. And then health passports, which we're hearing a lot about at the moment, which is really about digitizing information so customers can travel. So these trends are developing around the world with different protocols, but there is slowly now emerging 2 major protocols here. And I think we're very confident governments moved from dealing with the health crises to now focusing much more on opening up economies and critically how they get travel happening again. This next slide really shows what some of the stuff we're doing, both in corporate and leisure. I think these are corporate examples in this case. On the top here, you can see our app. So this is Singapore example. But really, what it's showing is that Digital Health Wallet in FCM, which is -- has been developed in Singapore with Temasek, Singaporean Sovereign Wealth Funds, also a customer of ours. And here, really, what it's showing is a technology solution. So Singapore Airlines require a negative test to travel. The app the traveler has will direct the traveler to a clinic. They get a negative test from that clinic. And that is sort of the QR code as part of their boarding pass. That's a really seamless experience using technology to make sure that international travel can happen. And then below, where there are different protocols and different countries and different airlines, we can actually upload whatever the protocol, whatever the health certificate is into a Sam app so customers can use it. So this is really a good example how health partners are using technology to make sure that vaccinated and tested travelers can get on board and travel simply and easily. And we see significant progress being made here. And in both leisure and corporate, we're bringing these technologies into play with our customers. You can see, we have recently agreed with Helius in Australia, some testing stations for both our leisure and corporate customers. There are lots of progress here. We're at the forefront of it. And we're very optimistic that these protocols will become standard and will enable international travel to happen again.

Haydn Long

executive
#9

I think we probably may have seen earlier this week. We've also made a similar announcement that we're working with a company called Helius in Australia, which will deliver very similar sort of services, the one Chris is talking about. Keep an eye after that and some other developments in this space because it's certainly evolving pretty quickly. That's the end of the presentation. So we're now ready to go to Q&A.

Operator

operator
#10

[Operator Instructions] The first question we have is from Grant Saligari from Crédit Suisse.

Grant Saligari

analyst
#11

My first question is in regard to the impact of government subsidies as they wind down. You received $178 million of gross government subsidies during the half. Most of those went to employees that have stood down or furloughed. So what I'm wondering is, can you run us through the timing of the different subsidies as they cease? And then what will actually happen either to your employee retention or your cash as those subsidies with cease? Could you run us through that, please?

Adam Campbell

executive
#12

Yes. Grant, it's Adam here. The majority of the subsidies, obviously, in Australia, with JobKeeper. And from January to March, the net impact here to us as it currently stands is about $5 million a month retained. Within the company with, obviously, the -- our stood-down employees having to flow through directly to them. And as you know, currently, that's slated to end at the end of March. In Canada, the other 2 bigger areas that we're receiving these sort of subsidies are in Canada and the U.K. and they've pretty much been pushed out until the end of June. So we've got an extended period there for those to flow through, which we think will give us a bit more visibility in those markets by the time we get to the middle of the year in terms of the impact of macro conditions coming through. So big one really is JobKeeper here in Australia. And Skroo, I don't know if you want to talk to the impact of that when that starts to wind down toward the end of March.

Graham Turner

executive
#13

Yes. Look, obviously, we've been -- and the rest of the industry has been in touch with various government ministers in terms of ongoing support. There's certainly the JobKeeper is going to finish, but there's a general indication that these badly affected of industries in travel and tourism, airlines and airports will get some ongoing support from the government, probably not in form of wage support but in other areas which we just don't know. We'll know that in the next couple of weeks. But I think we're reasonably comfortable that we have the liquidity regardless of what happens. Unfortunately, there's going to be a lot of small operators, particularly in the tourism and tour operating business that again really struggle when Job Keeper finishes. So I guess we're just waiting to see, Grant, in the next couple of weeks.

Grant Saligari

analyst
#14

So can you keep your employees stood down for a more extended period? Or at some point, would you need to actually offer redundancies or sort of make it formal? Just trying to understand how the business sort of goes over the next 6 months.

Graham Turner

executive
#15

That's a good point, and that's unclear at the moment. We're reasonably confident that we can keep people stood down. The main problem is that a lot of people are starting to go and get other jobs, obviously. And also, there may well -- if JobKeeper does finish like that, there may well be some -- almost certainly will be some redundancies. But the actual position on stood-down people is not clear, although obviously, we are -- quite a few people are leaving on their own accord to get other jobs. So obviously, because of it's -- for a lot of them, this is going to last another number of months.

Grant Saligari

analyst
#16

If I could ask a second question just on the Slide 15, which you very helpfully provided the underlying cost base. If I look at the employee benefits expense line, which is running at an underlying, excluding sort of the subsidies that are flowing through to people stood down, it's running at $294 million compared with $822 million in first half '20. If your TTV gets back to somewhere in the vicinity of the first half '20 levels -- so the $12 billion you do in first half '20. Can you give us some indication as to what that $294 million would need to go to? So we're trying to understand the sustainable cost saves in the business. Would it go to $700 million? Would it go to $600 million? Just some broad indication of the sort of savings that are embedded in the business, I think, would help us understand the leverage as you come out of this.

Adam Campbell

executive
#17

Yes, Bryan, it's -- unfortunately, I'm not going to give you -- be able to give you a specific answer to that one, as I'm sure you can probably imagine. But there's a lot of factors there. But what I will say is that the -- we will be -- overall cost base, including our employee cost base, will be lower than it has historically been. And the efficiencies that we're bringing in and the streamlined changes that we've made to the business will mean that the cost base across most categories, but employee costs being our biggest cost, certainly, the driver behind it, will be lower than they've previously been. As I say, there's a lot of different factors to that. There's the changes that we've made. There will be stronger discipline to really make sure that we're only bringing back those costs as we truly need it, and there'll be a bit of tension there, positive tension there in terms of how we bring those costs back. But also, as you heard from both Mel and Chris, there's a lot of focus on productivity and the investments we're making at the moment to make productivity gains within both the corporate and leisure business. So that will also have an impact as well the mix. So if you look in the leisure business, there's likely to be a higher percentage of transactions going online than there were in the first half of last year, which obviously will mean that the employee costs will be a little bit less as well. So there's a number of factors there. I think the overarching principle I can give you is it will certainly be leaner than we were previously.

Operator

operator
#18

The next question we have is from Michael Simotas from Jefferies.

Michael Simotas

analyst
#19

Can I follow on from Grant's question, please? I know you guys tend to think about your business in a very long-term way, which is great. Do you think when the world does recover, allowing for the productivity benefits that you have extracted, the potential for industry consolidation somewhat offset by mix -- and maybe there's a comment needed on likely support from agents. But do you think you can make more money than you may pre-COVID? So in calendar '19, the business earned, I think it was about $305 million PBT. Should we be thinking about that as a base that you should eventually be able to surpass?

Adam Campbell

executive
#20

Look, I'll start with that. I'm sure Skroo has got a view on it as well. Certainly, I think as -- Michael, as I said to Grant, I think the reality is that our cost base will be lower, will be leaner than it was previously. As you say, there's a bit of movement in terms of mix of channels, et cetera, that will, no doubt, have a bit of an impact as well. But broadly speaking, we'll certainly be looking to improve the PBT margins that we previously operated under. And you'll recall that we had set a target of a 2% of return to a 2% PBT margin, a number about 3 years ago that we were working towards. My view, and we haven't -- certainly shouldn't be taking this as guidance by any stretch, and we haven't really firmed a number. But when we restate those sort of targets, my expectation certainly would be that we would be and should be looking for a higher PBT target, margin target than we had previously. But Skroo, any thoughts on it?

Graham Turner

executive
#21

Yes. Michael, look, yes, the main thing is, and it covers off on Grant's question a bit, is that we're very focused as we bring revenue back that a significant part of that revenue doesn't go in costs. So for every $10 million, for example, our revenue comes back, we want a substantial lesser amount in costs. And that's achieved by several ways that Adam did detail before. As to the $300-plus million, we certainly would hope that we will back there within the next few years. There's -- we've obviously got this year and next year to get through -- I'm talking about financial years, before it's going to come back to anything like pre-COVID levels. But we expect in both leisure and corporate to have greater market share and we're quite comfortable the margins will be quite good. So -- but other than that, it's pretty hard to predict. But if we weren't back within less than 18 months to 2 years to something similar to what we were before, we'd be disappointed. But as you know, there's a lot of water to flow under the bridge, just domestically keeping the borders open. But it is -- both in the U.K., U.S.A. and probably Canada, places like India, the domestic market is starting to come back. It's really now up to when -- due to vaccinations, the international market comes back. But I think you said we saw what's as the airport said, I think what Qantas said. Everyone's expecting international travel to come back in the second half of this calendar year. Just exactly which month is not clear yet. That will depend on the vaccination rollout and the effectiveness against some of the variants, which generally look positive. So we certainly would expect it to exceed it over the longer term significantly because we've still got the basis of our -- of our operation, our IP. All our major businesses are intact. And so we certainly would expect it come back quite strongly over the next 2 or 3 years.

Michael Simotas

analyst
#22

Yes. Okay. That's helpful. And look, the timing is clearly very difficult, and I wouldn't expect you to have a strong view on that. But I guess what you've got much better visibility over than what we've got is things like mix and commission rates and support from suppliers, et cetera. And you had some pressures on revenue margin in the lead up to COVID. So just to make sure I'm understanding things correctly, it sounds like you think that they will be more than offset by the productivity benefits when we ultimately do recover. And whether that's 3 years' time or 4 years' time, that remains to be seen but that's okay, but I just want to understand what the end state is.

Graham Turner

executive
#23

Yes. Look, as I think I said it in the presentation, we do make a lot of effort to have a good relationship with our suppliers. And obviously, some of the smaller ones will struggle, particularly if government support finishes. But so far, we've been very active both in keeping in touch with them, keeping up-to-date with both them and us, where we see things going. And we've signed up a lot of our suppliers not just in Australia but globally. And most of them have been very flexible, and we're quite happy with the arrangements going forward on a margin point of view. Some of the airlines -- some of the major airlines will be pushing back a bit on margin, but a lot of others -- and you know with the Middle Eastern carriers and some of the Asian carriers, it's probably the opposite. So we're pretty confident that at worst, the airlines will come out at least the same as before. And a lot of the other operators or land operators and cruise operators, obviously, that's one of the areas that we think will be -- will come out quite well, Michael. So we're not -- of all the things we need to be worried about, that's one thing that we're not.

M. Waters-Ryan

executive
#24

Actually, Michael, I'll comment too. You mentioned -- yes, the answer is yes. Even if there is, we've built in plenty of scenarios with what will -- could happen with margin versus the cost margin. But just so you know, particularly, Chris and I have been doing sessions with all the top suppliers a month now, going through our strategies, going through theirs. And if anything, I think -- I've been in this space for many years, they like the diversity and reach we bring with both corporate and leisure in the one group, the on and off-line, even things like our premium strategy in leisure. So we've been -- we've gone through, I think, Skroo, about top 10, 20 airlines, and we're doing others as well, both with hoteliers, et cetera. So we're hearing a very positive message. I mean, I think there's a bit of a camaraderie in some instances, that we're all in this together and we need to get the industry back on its feet. There will be the odd individual gripes and challenges, but those dances haven't been happening for decades. So no, we're fairly comfortable, as Skroo mentioned, on that space. Plus -- also, a lot of our cost control has been in delayering. So our efficiency is not just when you look at the front end, but in delayering throughout the business and doing a lot of automation. So I'm very comfortable particularly in leisure that we can, to your point, get back to pre-profit levels because we've really attacked where we had a lot of the inefficiency.

Operator

operator
#25

The next question we have is from Mark Wade from CLSA.

Mark Wade

analyst
#26

Just a follow-up on Michael, too. I mean, just to be clear, your arrangements you had with Qantas was due for renewal and they've only been extended 12 months. Can you confirm that that's been getting rolled out on a longer-term basis?

Graham Turner

executive
#27

Look, what I can confirm is that we have reached an arrangement with Qantas. So over the longer term, so -- which we're not unhappy about. We'd always like to do better, but Mark, we're reasonably comfortable with where we are with Qantas.

Mark Wade

analyst
#28

Okay. That's great. And just turning to the culture of the organization. I mean it's been through a massive upheaval and it is really a service people business. And what gives you the confidence that you can bring that back with any -- no long-lasting damage?

M. Waters-Ryan

executive
#29

Mark, I'll say something and maybe Skroo can as well. We've done, I think, a really good job of socially still engaging and caring for our people, whether they're with us or, to be honest, stood down or even exited. We have all sorts of contacts through our social platforms with our [ past app ]. And in fact, we've got a lot of our people going, "I know it's tough, but in a year or 2, I'll come back." So we feel very confident. We've also tried to -- and this will sound a little bit, though -- maintain some of our rituals in terms of recognition and communication. We didn't have our global ball last year, but we did it digitally, and it went really well, sort of remembering from the past. If anything, I think it's our culture that managed to get the change so quickly in terms of getting our costs down. Everyone was just on board. So I think our culture is actually going to emerge even stronger coming out of this. It doesn't mean there hasn't been a lot of -- some of the worst days in terms of potentially having to ask people to go, et cetera. But Skroo, I don't know what you feel, but I talk to a lot of people at the moment and I think the culture is stronger than ever.

Graham Turner

executive
#30

Yes. Look, it's not easy. And in the end, it's the frontline people mainly, not only frontline but a lot of the support people that suffered throughout this. But we've generally had very good feeling that people will come back when they can. Obviously, our overall industry will be smaller. There will be a lot of well-qualified people looking for roles in this. And travel is of those games that when people are in travel, they love it and they want to come back into it even -- but a lot of people will have gone to other jobs. And I know just with the Pedal Group, for example 99 Bikes, they've taken on quite a few of our people because our cultures are fairly similar and it is a sales culture. But even those people eventually would -- most of them seem to want to get back into travel. And I think we had a survey that 75% of people, even when they've been stood down or made redundant, said that they would come back at a later date. But it's a matter of priority, getting things back to some level of normality is our first priority, and that's one of the things, I think, we're reasonably confident of.

M. Waters-Ryan

executive
#31

And Mark, just even -- I know in the leisure space, where we offered the independent model fairly quickly, we had good take up. And a lot of our people are actually thankful that we were trying to do things flexibly so that they could still remain part of the group, put it that way. So I think, again, that's a real positive for us. But we have certainly done everything possible. You saw from both Chris and I on those slides, our people and culture underpins everything we do. So yes, I mean, it's been certainly challenging, but yes, I think our culture will be, as I said, stronger as a result.

Operator

operator
#32

[Operator Instructions] The next question we have is from Bryan Raymond from Citi.

Bryan Raymond

analyst
#33

My first one is just on the composition of TTV that you guys expect once we do head back towards normal. So you closed 1 party store base in Australia and a large portion overseas as well. Prior to COVID, you had about 9% of leisure online in FY '19. So I just wanted to understand sort of how you see that channel mix evolving as you get back towards normal from an industry perspective with -- of course, online fortunately will be higher, but also some of the stores that are still open will trade well relative to where they were before, given the consolidation. And then if you can just comment on how you see the margin structure of that online channel. It's obviously been a bit lower margin historically.

M. Waters-Ryan

executive
#34

Okay. Bryan, yes, as I said and I addressed that with my slide, we certainly do have a much reduced shop network, which we knew we had a bloated one previously, put it that way. But we've been very, very pointed about keeping the reach. So we've removed density, high density. We haven't removed geographical spread, if that makes sense, particularly in Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. So where we had 5 or 6 shops within a 2- or 3-kilometer location is where we certainly made the cuts. So we still feel our reach is there. The other thing is the shops that are there are often the bigger, more productive shops previously. So even though, let's say, it might be 40% or 50% of them, they were probably doing 60% or 70% of the TTV previously. So we're very comfortable. The other thing is using that independent model where we can have more hub-and-spoke mentality with our shops because it wasn't, remember, necessarily just going into a shop that's having access to people. So our access to people via the independent and also the call center will also be just as available to our customers. But back to your point on the online as well. Yes, I think we're already getting somewhere, and I think it's in the slide somewhere. Over 20-odd percent now is our volume coming through online, which, by the way, we're quite happy with because that was certainly where we wanted it to head. And a lot of that is our margin commoditized product, a lot of point-to-point domestic, low-cost carriers, et cetera, which is much more efficient for both the customer and for us, to be honest, to go through online. You did comment though on the margin spread. There is no doubt online, because it's a largely domestic and it's online, it's a lower margin. We know that. That's built into our scenarios. But again, that margin will be improved once -- and I think I even saw it with Webjet. It wants to get some international point-to-point where the margins are a lot better but also add diversification into our packages and hotel. And again, it won't be -- it will still be mainly flights sold online, but even a small shift into that fundamentally helps to improve the margin. And the other one is ancillaries, starting to be able to sell meals, seats, bags, blah, blah, blah, where the airlines are much more favorable in terms of the margins they'll offer. So yes, we're comfortable that you will see definitely a higher proportion online. You will see a lower margin of that online proportion, but we know we can grow that back to something reasonable. But again, the cost base is much lower. So it should wash out. And if you look to corporate, that's been happening over 10 years, as there's been more OVT penetration where their gross margin has certainly been impacted, particularly if you looked at the Australian market, but their profit margin has, in fact, improved because of the better cost base.

Bryan Raymond

analyst
#35

Right. So just to confirm then, if industry TTV gets back to FY '19 levels, do you think you guys will -- given your store closure program, will get back to FY '19 levels of TTV? Or a bit lower because the closures are a bit better because of consolidation in the industry? How do you view your relative positioning?

M. Waters-Ryan

executive
#36

Okay. I think it will be at least the same if not better for a couple of reasons. One, you mentioned the consolidation. Also, our multichannel capability will be vastly expanded. And we already knew we had customers who wanted to book online that were kind of almost forced into a shop in some instances. So some consolidation. But the other thing is the same as the brand, and I can't reiterate that enough. We had done some further brand consolidation during 2020. And we literally, in the last day or 2, got the latest brand's sort of reviews. And 1 in 5 Australians are rating Flight Centre as their first choice to book travel. So we can already see we're gaining awareness and, more importantly, consideration. I mean pretty hard in Australia. People don't know Flight Centre but more and now actively saying they will choose Flight Centre for their travel. And the same in South Africa. New Zealand is a bit harder to tell with the whole place being relatively shut down. But yes, I think the fame of the brand will also -- and the security of that it is a trusted and a brand that got through, I think, will really help us. So consolidation, multichannel and the brand, I believe, will actually end up with more of the market.

Chris Galanty

executive
#37

And Bryan, from a corporate perspective, if the industry gets back to 2019 levels, we'd expect serious growth because we're adding customers every week. So we're not anticipating it gets back to 2019 levels certainly not a next year or so. But if it did, we'd expect significant growth on 2019 numbers.

Bryan Raymond

analyst
#38

Okay. That's interesting. Just one of the things you guys called out I've found really helpful at the FY '20 results was when you talked about your breakeven levels of TTV as a percentage of pre-COVID. From memory, it's about 30% to 35% in corporate and 45% in leisure. Have those numbers changed at all over the past 6 months with any other cost programs you guys have done? Or should we take that as the same sort of Slide 1?

Adam Campbell

executive
#39

Yes. Bryan, there's been -- overall, there's been really no change. So for the group, we think around that 40% mark still is where we need to get to for prior volumes to start getting back to profit. There has been a shift with leisure and corporate though. You might recall at the AGM, we spoke about a cost-out -- further cost-out program we're undertaking within the leisure business. And that identified approximately $9 million a month of additional cost-out from the leisure business. We then reinvested back into the leisure business a further $4 million. So the leisure business cost base on a net basis has actually come down by around $4 million or $5 million a month. And that means it's a leisure breakeven, comes back to just under 40%. Between 35% and 40% now is what we need in terms of those sort of volumes because of those cost-outs that we saw. Conversely, we have taken $3 million of the costs we identified in leisure, and we've reinvested them back into the corporate brands, particularly as we're starting to see some of the momentum that we expect to see coming forward. So that means that the corporate brands now would be around about 45% and they'll be -- they should be looking to get back into profit. And again, the relative size of that, the corporate cost base was around $23 million a month. So adding another $3 million increase is not a lot in dollar terms but does increase the cost base by 15%, which is why that breakeven number inches up a little bit. So overall, it still is a number though.

Bryan Raymond

analyst
#40

So Australian corporate had 43% in January, should have been broadly breakeven then.

Adam Campbell

executive
#41

So Australia corporate is an interesting one. We've got a lot of -- some key essential services clients there that operate at a low margin, particularly with a lot of the work that -- a lot of the bookings are there in hotels at the moment, which are very low margin. If you take them out, they represent about half of that volume. So if you take them out and look at the core, if you like, of the normal corporate volumes in Australia, we're at about 20% of typical volumes. So that means that we've still got a little way to go in terms of getting to breakeven in Australia.

Bryan Raymond

analyst
#42

Right. Okay. And then my final part of this, my final question, just around the override. So you talk about supplier relationships going really well. I'm just -- I just find it hard to believe given our lines of pretty capital-intensive and have been under a lot of pressure globally through this that overrides are going to come back pretty quickly or -- or even if they come back to linearly with TTV, I would expect that at best, it would be with a bit of a lag as they rebuild their cash flows and balance sheets. So can you just help us understand how important overrides are to that breakeven analysis and whether they should be back in line with TTV or whether that's going to take a while?

Graham Turner

executive
#43

Look, it's Skroo here. Look, every airline is a bit different. And we've -- as Mel said, we've had a good chat to most of the CEOs of our major trading partners in airlines, and it does vary a lot. But the one thing all of them really want, particularly the international guys, particularly Middle Eastern, Asian and also the American guys, they desperately need volume. And they accept that we've got to be a viable business just as I have to be. So it's really about the overall package now until volumes return. So -- and that generally will include an allowance for what we would have earned in overrides as well in 1 margin. So in the end, they need the volume and if we can give it to them, and that's a key thing for us that we can give these airlines volume, it's really important for them. Some of our clients it's not quite as important because they're a very big domestic carrier. And so the international is -- will come later for that. But most of the Asian and Middle East in particular, they're all international. So they are desperate to get volume. And we're one of the players that can provide them volume, not just out of Australia and New Zealand but also out of Europe and North America and Asia.

M. Waters-Ryan

executive
#44

Bryan, I'll add to that, too. One of the things that we did with supplies -- and again, particularly airlines, is we give them a higher-yielding revenue passenger than say a lot of the mass OTAs, which is the one thing they'll be desperate for coming out of this. So again, we've really, when we've done these strategic sessions, looked at that. But we were doing it previously because of the way -- and this is both corporate and leisure, in particular with corporate with our SME focus and our leisure businesses. So again, I think you might see them making some rationalization for distribution to your point because they're trying to also reduce their cost base. But why would -- they're certainly very keen to keep as much reach as they can and spread to attract that higher revenue and yielding customer. And again, we give them everything under one roof. So I think that will benefit us and certainly is what they're keen to talk to us about.

Haydn Long

executive
#45

Bryan, it's Haydn. Just to paraphrase what Skroo said in pretty simple terms. What the airlines are doing at the moment and what we're sort of seeking from the airlines too is more of a guaranteed margin, a bit like coming out of that GFC period. So there's not really override discussions at the moment or super override discussions. It's more about, "Okay, this is what the previous contract you were earning. This is the level that we're going to be paying out at sort of the foreseeable future," and then we'll revisit volume-based incentives at a later point when things get back to more normal.

Operator

operator
#46

The next question we have is from Morana McGarrigle from Macquarie.

Morana Hunter

analyst
#47

Two questions from me. The first is, is the ambition still that TTV recovers to pre-COVID levels in FY '24 for leisure and with corporate ahead of where it was? And on that, I've noticed there's a slight change in the commentary on outlook versus what it was at the AGM. So I can see that the expectation is now for both leisure and corporate to breakeven in calendar year '21. And previously, I think it was corporate returning to profit in late FY '21 and leisure in late Y -- late FY '22. So I guess the question is, is the read-through that corporate will take an extra 6 or so months to return to profitability, whereas leisure appears to have been brought forward by about 6 months?

Graham Turner

executive
#48

Yes, good question. The -- I can't remember exactly what our predictions were then but -- and probably I'm more interested in the overall breakeven. And yes, look, it does depend a lot on borders reopening, domestic borders staying open not just in Australia, and also the international travel. And we're looking at overall as a company either late this calendar year or early next calendar year without being too specific. And I think Adam just explained it a bit with the last business, we had quite a lot of very low-margin hotel business, e.g. we look out to some of the quarantine hotels for some of the states. And yes, that's really affected our corporate margins. So that's probably been the main impact on corporate going somewhat later than we originally thought. Also, we thought borders, particularly in Australia, would stay open. They didn't. They opened and shut every 5 minutes. So that did have a -- that pushed corporate back as well. But there's still a fair bit of water to flow under the bridge. But with the vaccination program every month it would appear to become a little bit more predictable about when the -- when we move into profit.

Morana Hunter

analyst
#49

And then just going back to that first one, I guess, the broader ambitions. TTV recovery is still FY '24 with corporate a little bit higher?

Graham Turner

executive
#50

That's a fair way away, but we've had a good look at this. And we're reasonably happy with that, that we'll get back to that in about that '24 year -- '24 [ grab that ] period. And we expect corporate to get back up a bit earlier or be a bit higher by then than pre-COVID, not because the market is going to be bigger, it will probably be small, but because we are winning market share in -- particularly in the Northern Hemisphere.

Morana Hunter

analyst
#51

And just one more question for me. There was a comment earlier on smaller players not being able to survive. Could you please just provide some more color on what you're seeing in that competitive landscape? Have they started to exit the market? And these opportunities for consolidation doesn't differ between corporate and leisure?

Graham Turner

executive
#52

Look, the big -- the people with the big problems, if government doesn't support the travel and tourism industry, will be the small players, particularly in the tourist field, the tourism field and certainly some in the travel agency. They will be the people that will struggle if -- without some government support. And I think the government is very much aware of that. We hope that the government does continue to support because I think this is an industry. It's important that as -- that we have a good structure that survives it rather than us having a competitive advantage in that area. And also, obviously, the people who are operating tourism facilities, whether it's in Australia or overseas and 2 of those other -- it's really important we have in product sales. So we certainly hope they survive. There will be a fair element. You will know a lot of the small tour operators that are global operators are headquartered in Australia. So the Australian approach to this is going to be quite important as well as some of the overseas areas like the U.K. and Europe in particular. And obviously, the cruise lines that are based -- a lot of them are based in places like Miami and that. So there's a number of -- they're obviously big players, so probably less likely to be affected negatively, but -- there was another part of the question.

Haydn Long

executive
#53

I was just going to say -- to see, Chris, did you want to give any flavor specifically from a corporate landscape?

Chris Galanty

executive
#54

Yes, sure. I mean in terms of consolidation, I think consolidation is happening pre-COVID in the industry anyway. So it's certainly going to continue and probably speed up. I think that the way to look at the market is that companies, as they start traveling, are going to need e-requirements in the post-COVID world, particularly around duty of care but also around access to content. And what we are seeing in the market is even those companies who managed to survive in different parts of the world, often through government subsidies, don't appear to be investing in new product. And that's what we're hearing from customers, and that's why we're winning business. We are very much committed to not just surviving in corporate, but bringing new product to market and product relevance. So we're not seeing much of that happening. The other interesting thing we are seeing a bit of an exit is a lot of disruptors and DC money was going into business travel up to 2019 in the preceding years. And we're seeing a bit of that money exit and some people pivoting out of business travel into other sectors. So that's quite an interesting trend we've seen in the last few months. And obviously, that bodes well for players like us who are bringing new technologies to market as an incumbent.

Operator

operator
#55

The next question we have is from Wei-Weng Chen from JPMorgan.

Wei-Weng Chen

analyst
#56

First one, maybe we'll stick with Chris on corporate. Just based on what you're seeing and hearing from customers, what's your view on how much the corporate market shrinks as a result of the pandemic and Zoom, et cetera?

Chris Galanty

executive
#57

Yes. It's a good question. We spent a lot of time talking about this. I think there definitely will be some shrinkage. And what we're hearing is things like internal business meetings, which may have been done face to face, some customers have got used to doing those over Zoom, over Teams, and some of that won't come back. However, what we are seeing as well is markets which are opening up, we've actually been quite surprised in some cases about how much has come back. So China, which I've referenced before, we're seeing the domestic China is back to over 80%. Some months, we got back to 100% of pre-COVID levels. Now it's partly because we've put some new business in, but it's also partly because people who can travel are traveling again. I also think we're seeing an interesting trend now. The longer this pandemic has gone on, we are hearing from customers that there is huge pent-up demand to get traveling again. So I anticipate in the next couple of years -- we don't have exact percentages, but I think what I'm confident to say is that we can win new customers, enough new customers and get them trading to replace the down-trading in our existing customer base up to 2019. So we're very confident we can get back to growth sooner rather than later once the world opens up simply by winning enough new customers to make up for the customers who won't go back to 100%, certainly for the next couple of years.

Wei-Weng Chen

analyst
#58

Yes. All right. Understood. And then the next couple of questions just on leisure. So just the first one was on the reduced bricks-and-mortar network. Sort of historically, that's been justified in part through advertising benefits associated with the network. So that network is now 60% smaller. Does marketing spend sort of post pandemic need to increase as a percentage of sales?

M. Waters-Ryan

executive
#59

Wei-Weng, well, yes, in summary, we would -- our expectations and scenarios have built-in an escalating marketing spend. However, during the pandemic, we've got very creative about using own interchannels as opposed to paid channels. So one would expect we can get greater advantage out of [ Icthial ], et cetera, et cetera. And social platforms, as I mentioned, are proving very fertile ground. But yes, we do intend to spend more on marketing as an overall percentage. That's in the Flight Centre brand. If you move to, say, the TA brand, it's the advisers themselves who are the marketers. So you won't see it as much there. But yes, that would be part of our forward plan. Remember, one thing I did say though is what we've reduced is high density, not necessarily geographical reach. So we're certainly make sure -- making sure the brand billboard impact is still there in terms of traffic flows, et cetera.

Wei-Weng Chen

analyst
#60

Yes. Great. And then just the next one on the leisure business. So In first half '20 pre pandemic, the leisure business was loss-making at a PBT level. I appreciate there's sort of seasonality in the business but just wanted to see if that was normal? Or just first half '20 was just a tough period?

Adam Campbell

executive
#61

There's a couple of things in there, Wei-Weng. There's -- yes, you're right. Seasonality is there. So if you look at the U.S. in particular, they operate in a loss-making position for the first half of the year. What we also had in that first half of the year here in Australia was we were going through some of the heavy lifting in terms of the transformation project and program that Mel was undertaking. So typically, we would expect to see that we would be in -- overall in a profit position, albeit that the North American leisure business would typically trade at a loss and drag that profit down.

Haydn Long

executive
#62

Wei-Weng, most of the other leisure businesses also are seasonal. The ones Adam is talking about are massively seasonal, but also Australia and New Zealand is -- has a second half skew as well.

Wei-Weng Chen

analyst
#63

Yes. And then just last one on just M&A. So vaccines are here. I mean real-world experience is showing their effectiveness. And feels like this is probably the last chance when they can move from an M&A perspective. I'm just wondering if you guys had any thoughts on that. Are you guys looking at anything?

Chris Galanty

executive
#64

What do you got, mate?

Adam Campbell

executive
#65

Well, I think Skroo said before, look, that there is -- there are and will be opportunities through consolidation of both the leisure and corporate businesses. I think the reality is that like anyone else, we'd certainly be having one eye open to what we believe is the best outcome for us. I will say historically, and certainly in the leisure business and definitely in the corporate business, our growth has come from organic growth, and we've never relied on acquisitions to materially change that growth profile for us. So we wouldn't do it just for growth, but certainly, if there was an opportunity that fit really snugly within our strategic objectives in both the leisure and the corporate -- and/or the corporate business, then we'd certainly be looking at it.

Operator

operator
#66

The next question we have is from Aryan Norozi from UBS.

Aryan Norozi

analyst
#67

Just the first one from me. To what extent does the leisure business subsidize your profit in the corporate business, mainly in terms of -- when I say subsidize, I meant in terms of buying power?

M. Waters-Ryan

executive
#68

Yes. I think the word subsidize is probably -- there's no doubt we leverage the combined volume of both businesses, not just from a supply chain perspective. Remember, I did mention the diversity that we give the supply chain by coming into the group through one doorway. But if you go back to those, how we win sort of layered diagrams that both Chris and I had, the investments in terms of -- and I'll give one in terms of TPConnects that we've been investing in over the last year to improve our NDC capability. We're jointly doing that together. So the cost is shared, and it makes it a lot more palatable/gives us more options in that space. But yes, we're very committed to working together as a group. The supply chain's generally like that. Mind you, we also work with the supply chain as well as they want to approach more regionally, and we certainly have some contracts that are either as corporate or leisure, not necessarily in a -- so yes, no, we think it's a benefit. And certainly, the interactions we've had with the big suppliers, as I said, we've been really proactive in that space over the last 6 months, particularly, is resonating with them as well. Chris, do you want to add any comment on that?

Chris Galanty

executive
#69

Yes. Well, Mel does buy me dinner occasionally. I'm not sure if that counts as subsidizing, but maybe not. I agree. No, I don't think there's any subsidies, but there's definitely a benefit in supply chain having them both. And I think that's what we leverage more than anything else.

Adam Campbell

executive
#70

Just -- actually just for clarity there. In terms of the overall cost base, we allocate our costs to both leisure and corporate largely on a usage basis. So any cost that we can't specifically allocate to either leisure or corporate do get -- end up in that big other bucket in the segment node. So from a pure cost perspective, there's no subsidization of leisure to corporate or corporate to leisure. And one of the benefits we've seen in the cost-out program that we've had to undertake over the last 12 months is the benefit of having both leisure and corporate and starting to work together for a lot of the support businesses, to get greater efficiency across all of our brands collectively rather than just specifically on individual ones.

Aryan Norozi

analyst
#71

Perfect. And second one, just in terms of the revenue margin. I think at the start, you mentioned around 10% in leisure for shorter term, the way we should be thinking about it. If the mix between your leisure business does recover between international and domestic, how do we think about revenue margins demand?

Adam Campbell

executive
#72

Yes. Look, certainly, I think the point I was trying to make there is for the next 6 months, we're not expecting a significant shift in those domestic, international channels for leisure. So the current revenue margin is probably a good approximation of what we'll see over the second half. As we start to see international come back, certainly, we start to see the revenue margin increase. I think as Mel mentioned earlier, overall, we'd expect to be able to get the revenue margin up relatively close to where it was in pre-COVID times for leisure. The only thing that may bring it down a little bit would be the mix towards the online channel, but that would also have a reduced cost base. That means we wouldn't have to bring back the additional cost there as well. So net-net, we'd expect it to get back fairly similar to pre-COVID levels once we get back to international travel and once our touring operations start-up again as well.

M. Waters-Ryan

executive
#73

Remember the international travel, it's not just the nature of the higher TTV, but you get chunkier margin products like coach touring, insurance, et cetera. So that's just not available really on a domestic basis, where it's largely flight and hotel.

Aryan Norozi

analyst
#74

And your commentary assuming over right come back? Because you guys already mentioned negotiations for a [indiscernible] for the next sort of while, 12-month-ish, you've just got 6 percentage. So the comments you're making around it pertaining to pre-COVID level, that's assuming overrides kick in again? Is that right?

Adam Campbell

executive
#75

Yes. Margins remain at a steady sort of level.

M. Waters-Ryan

executive
#76

Yes. We're just looking at the collective margin we earned over an average over the last period. And like Haydn said, we did exactly the same as we came out of GFC, trying to have that retained average margin. And then once there's some sort of level of numbers as we get a base for volume tiers as well. So I think that's sort of half and half...

Haydn Long

executive
#77

It doesn't really matter where it comes from. It's what you earn and an added source or whether there's some back end component, but generally, it's being paid and sourced.

M. Waters-Ryan

executive
#78

And there's no doubt any conversations I've been in with any of the supply chain, have -- they have been totally fine to work on that sort of basis.

Operator

operator
#79

The final question we have is from Belinda Moore from Morgans.

Belinda Moore

analyst
#80

I just want to check, maybe, Adam, a question for you, please. I think your cash burn was supposed to reduce by a further $4 million from January, just following those cost savings. So is that still correct? I know in December, it was $30 million? So just how we should think about that? And then secondly, just thinking about your overall sort of second half '21 loss, I suppose, versus the first half, just given you expect sort of TTV to accelerate?

Adam Campbell

executive
#81

Yes, Belinda. We certainly -- just pulling up the page from the AGM you're referring to. But yes, we certainly expected to have net savings come through by the time we got to January. We are seeing them coming through into the numbers. As I said, we've reinvested some of the overall savings. So the net you'll see in the OpEx should come back into line with what we were talking about at the AGM, which was -- which is around about that $71 million a month. And there's also some elements of that, that were coming off in CapEx because we weighted some of our CapEx over the final quarter of the last calendar year. So we are absolutely seeing the benefits that we expected to see in the savings program net of the reinvestments that we highlighted at the AGM. And sorry, Belinda. What was the second part of your question?

Belinda Moore

analyst
#82

Just sort of how we should think about the sort of second half result, I suppose, versus sort of the quantum of the first half loss. In the second half, hopefully, TTV is going to improve?

Adam Campbell

executive
#83

Look, yes -- look, we -- I guess the reason we're not giving guidance that we don't know is probably the short of it. We can control things like our cost base. There are a lot of things out of our control, and that's largely at the revenue line, and that largely feeds into things like the domestic ports -- stability of domestic borders, whether any channels internationally with people like New Zealand can open up over that period, et cetera, et cetera. So unfortunately, I can't really answer that one for you at the moment. Belinda, it's just not known to us. There's too much ambiguity.

Haydn Long

executive
#84

Guys, we're going to have to run now to other events. But if anyone has any further e-mails or any questions, shoot them through me later today and we'll come back to you as quickly as we can. Thank you.

Adam Campbell

executive
#85

Thanks, everyone.

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