Flow Traders Ltd. (FLOW) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for holding, and welcome to the Flow Traders' Q2 and Half Year Results 2020. [Operator Instructions] I would like to hand over the conference to Mr. Jonathan Berger. Please go ahead, sir.

[Audio Gap] As you have, no doubt, already seen, we released our results first thing this morning. I'm joined here on the call by Flow Traders' CEO, Dennis Dijkstra; as well as Chief Trading Officer, Folkert Joling, who will run through the results presentation. Afterwards, they'll be happy to take any questions that you may have. Before we begin, let me draw your attention to disclaimer on Page 2. Please be advised that if you continue to listen to this presentation, you will be bound by this disclaimer. Also, please note, the results we will discuss in this presentation are unaudited. With the formalities out of the way, I would now like to hand over to Dennis for his opening remarks.

Thank you, Jonathan. Good morning, and thank you all for joining this call, where we will provide additional color on our second quarter and first half 2020 results. As is evident from the monthly market data published on our website, the first half of 2020 overall saw heightened levels of market activity with increased traded volumes and higher levels of volatility compared to 2019. Market ETP Value Traded increased by 69% year-on-year. The exceptional market circumstances experienced in the first quarter eased somewhat in the second quarter as markets began to normalize. This was reflected in the ETP market value traded, which decreased 16% quarter-on-quarter. We continue to grow our ETP Value Traded, outperforming the broader market in the second quarter as Flow Traders continued to gain market share. This is once again testament to our market presence and global footprint. Consequently, this market environment, along with Flow Traders' own pricing, hedging and risk management capabilities, translated into net trading income of EUR 724.8 million in the first half of 2020 compared to EUR 117 million in the same period last year. This was a record half for Flow Traders by some distance, and we saw clear outperformance in all regions and across all asset classes. We demonstrated strong operational leverage with an EBITDA margin of 64% in the first half, with an EBITDA of EUR 464 million. Ultimately, we recorded a net profit for the first half 2020 of EUR 375.3 million with an EPS of EUR 8.25. Taking all of this into account, Flow Traders proposes an interim dividend for full year 2020 of EUR 4, which will be paid on August 21. It is also worth highlighting that our business and operations functioned as normal during the first half following the activation of our business continuity plans globally, and we were able to continuously provide liquidity and pricing to the ETP markets on a global basis. Despite the strong operational focus during the first half, we have also continued to execute our growth strategy in terms of broadening our ETP footprint as well as enhancing coverage of fixed income and currency trading. We will cover this in greater detail later in the presentation. Let's now take a closer look at the market developments as well as a deeper dive into Flow Traders' performance and accomplishments. Firstly, we will review recent ETP market dynamics on Slide 4. As shown on the top left-hand side of this slide, ETP market value traded declined 16% in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter as markets began to normalize. Clearly, Q1 and Q2 were both hugely more active from an ETP market value traded standpoint than any recent quarter. Implied volatility also reduced during the second quarter from the highs seen in the first quarter. Nonetheless, average fixed levels were still much higher than those seen in 2019. Accordingly, this reduced market velocity in the second quarter after a pretty significant uptick seen in the first quarter. From an ETP assets under management perspective, we again saw significant increases in fixed income, ESG and commodity ETFs. As a key part of the ecosystem, Flow Traders facilitated trading in these ETP asset classes. In summary, it is fair to say that momentum in the ETP universe remained extremely positive in the first half, particularly when compared to 2019. Now I will hand over to Folkert who will review Flow Traders' regional performance in greater detail on the next slide.

Thank you, Dennis, and good morning all. On this slide, we present an overview of some of the key performance indicators for the second quarter and for the first half 2020 on a regional basis. As Dennis mentioned earlier, we have seen strong performance across the board from all our regions. Heightened market activity and the disciplined execution of Flow Traders' growth strategy resulted in a marked growth in ETP Value Traded as well as NTI in every region in the first half. In Europe, we continue to be the leading liquidity provider in ETPs, and the region remains the largest NTI contributor in Flow Traders' most important markets. This is a reflection of the region's high level of flow visibility as well as counterparty and product coverage. Flow Traders' ETP Value Traded in Europe outperformed market value traded year-on-year as well as quarter-on-quarter given our leading competitive position in the region. We are now also among the top 3 market makers on major FX ECNs in spot metals. Moving to the Americas. We continue to enhance our position with robust NTI contribution from all desks and significant outperformance versus market ETP Value Traded in Q2. We saw meaningful contributions, in particular, from commodity and fixed income ETFs in Q2. From a footprint perspective, we continued with additional counterparties -- sorry, we connected with additional counterparties and increased OTC volumes further. In fact, we demonstrated the strength of our platform in the U.S. by successfully executing multiple multibillion U.S. OTC trades, including the largest as such in the U.S. for Flow Traders. Our long-term commitment to the U.S. equity ecosystem was also confirmed through the strategic investments in Members Exchange. Lastly, there was strong trading performance in APAC across the board, both off and on exchange. Our business there benefited from Hong Kong-specific investments with increased on-exchange presence as well as connecting with additional regional counterparties. We are also seeing increased adoption of RFQ systems in the region, a further electronification of trading, which is a positive trend for Flow Traders. We also deepened the relationship with the Hong Kong Exchange by becoming the lead liquidity provider for the new suite of MSCI futures. I will now hand over back to Dennis for the next slide, where we will cover the cost base in a greater detail.

Thank you, Folkert. The main drivers of the 12% year-over-year increase in fixed expenses relate to technology investments to support our diversification initiatives and efficiency improvements as well as the full impact of new hires made in the second quarter. On the other hand, there has been a decrease in fixed operating expenses quarter-on-quarter. This reflects reduced employee and travel expenses given a substantial working-from-home presence. We have incurred EUR 1.5 million of additional one-off expenses in the first half, which relate primarily to the ongoing activation of the business continuity plan. Given the increase in head count in 2019 and ongoing organizational and technological improvements, head count has remained broadly flat through the first 6 months of the year. This is in line with the guidance we gave at the time of the full year results. In terms of cost for the full year, we still expect a maximum of 10% fixed operating increase -- expenses increase. Now I will take a closer look at Flow Traders' capital position on Slide 7. We show our required core Tier 1 capital levels on the top left-hand part of the slide. After accounting for the dividend, Flow Traders' capital buffers have remained strong and remain comfortably above our requirements under CRR. Our own fund requirements reduced to EUR 201 million at the end of June from EUR 261 million at the end of March. This reflects lower level of trading activity and normalizing markets and operational risk. We had a total CET1 of EUR 456 million at the end of June 2020. On the top right-hand side of the slide, you can see that our solvency ratio with the prime brokers as at June 30 increased markedly compared to the previous quarter, reflecting the EUR 950 million of accumulated trading capital as well as overall trading activity levels. Again, we are comfortably above our prime broker requirements. Looking forward, our initial IFD/IFR analysis has been completed following the publication of the Level 2 text in June in 2020. The outcome indicates that we should receive some capital relief given that the incoming IFD/IFR requirements should be more tailored to Flow Traders-specific risk profile. Accordingly, capital requirements should be markedly lower once IFD/IFR comes into force in June next year. It is envisaged that this capital relief will be partially offset by our growth -- business growth activities. Considering all these developments, Flow Traders has set the financial year 2020 interim dividend at EUR 4 per share. The cash return to shareholders since IPO now amounts to EUR 11.08, including our full year 2020 interim dividend and the share buyback. Now I will hand over to Folkert again to discuss our strategy and medium-term growth focus areas.

Thank you, Dennis. Our growth areas remain very much as we outlined earlier in the year, and developments during the first half of the year further confirms our growth strategy. Provision of liquidity has never been more important to the orderly functioning of global financial markets. Seeking to enlarge our global ETP footprint means that we can align ourselves with the continuing structural growth in passive investments. This has particular -- this has been particularly evident in fixed income and ESG investments, which have seen a strong growth over recent quarters, which has translated into increased trading activity in those areas. Moreover, the fact that the ETP ecosystem performed as intended during the Q1's exceptional market circumstances only increases the attractiveness of ETPs for investors, both retail and institutional. Our goal is to strengthen our position as market leader in Europe and seek to be overall top 5 in the U.S. In terms of enhancing our coverage of fixed income, we want to build on the fact that fixed income is the fastest-growing ETP asset class by becoming the global top 3 liquidity provider in fixed income ETPs. This will be done through promoting and driving market electronification, which will create more level playing field and increased transparency. From a currency trading perspective, we are leveraging our global infrastructure to provide liquidity to currency pools and counterparties. Our aim is to be a top 15 FX liquidity provider on Euromoney, top 5 on ECNs, which provides 24/5 or 24/7 liquidity. These growth focus areas have opened the goal of driving structural NTI growth. I will now turn to the final slide of the presentation and review our strategic progress so far in 2020. As Dennis mentioned earlier in the presentation, despite the strong operational focus in the first half, we nonetheless made good progress in all these growth focus areas, and we will deliver additional progress during the remainder of 2020. In the first half of the year, Flow Traders built on our leading ETP global liquidity provider position and grew our presence in all regions, especially in the U.S. and Asia. We also increased value traded in all regions as we traded with more counterparties on a large area of venues. In the second half, we will focus on further expanding our counterparty base as well as increasing and deepening product coverage and connecting with additional venues. We have enhanced coverage for fixed income in the first half through expanding our infrastructure, broadening our prime broker setup as well as increasing our market share in fixed income ETFs. The focus of the rest of the year is further enhancing our pricing capabilities as well as accessing more liquidity and increasing volumes. From a currency and crypto perspective, we are now consistently trading more than 5 billion daily. We have also upgraded our technology suite and have expanded our time zone coverage as well as our spot metals trading, where we are now among top 3 market makers on the major FX ECNs in spot metals. Our work will continue in the second half on building bilateral connectivity, expanding trading hours, increasing product coverage and broadening our prime broker base. I will now hand back the call to Jonathan.

Thanks, Folkert. This now concludes the formal part of our presentation. We'd now like to open up the floor to questions from the analysts. Operator?

[Operator Instructions] And the first question is coming from Michael Roeg, Degroof Petercam.

I have a couple of questions. First one is on the revenue capture, which is typically much higher in Europe than in the Americas. But in Q2, it was almost the same. So was Europe relatively weaker or Americas relatively stronger, or was there something else going on? And the second question is on the dividend. In the past 5 years, the payout was, on average, 68%. And the EUR 4 interim dividend is 48% of your half year EPS. So why are you so conservative on the interim dividend? And the third question is on the cash flow statement. It's clear that all the profits that you generate, you park in the working capital. My question on that is, how fast can you unwind this if you need the cash for dividends or bonuses? And what is the financial benefit that you have from parking it in the working capital? Could you quantify that? I guess it must be lowering your funding costs, but is this a couple of million or more substantial?

Folkert, do you want to answer the first one? And I will take the second and third.

Yes. So we are not focusing on the revenue capture as such as being a KPI. What we did see in the first half of the year was that the hybrid market volatility and the -- some of the dislocations in March and April meant different spreads of the underlying as well. So the comparisons to statistics from earlier quarters is a bit more difficult to do. So the product mix and the way we are covering specific asset classes, slightly less competitive in the straightforward products and more competitive in the more broader pricings lead to this balance being slightly more in line in the first half. So there is no structural change, which is driven by some other factors. Really, it's market activity, which is causing this API to look like this.

So is this a share coincidence because just one of the things mentioned in the press release and also in the presentation is those multibillion-dollar OTC trades which, well, without knowing details of course, automatically, you think though that must be a very competitive pricing, hence relatively low revenue capture. But still, you showed a very nice 5.6 for the Americas, which -- yes, it's just curious how that adds up. But this -- yes, the 5.8 in Europe, the 5.6 in Americas, we shouldn't seek anything behind that, I guess.

And those trades don't really have a huge impact on the statistics either. I mean the volumes are so big that this -- it's good to know that there's a lot of growth, and that was the metrics there and that we're continuously expanding and able to also trade an increasing amount of value with maintaining the risk profile as we have, which is pretty low-risk profile. So that -- there is -- it's not a coincidence. It's the market behavior, which is leading to this.

So if I can come back on your question number 2 [Technical Difficulty] move our cash on an intraday basis even around the globe. So -- and kind of freeing up capital or cash is done within, I don't know, hours or minutes. And it's very liquid. And kind of having the benefit is, as you said, indeed kind of how we use our liquid capital as margin at our prime brokers, especially because it will reduce our funding cost and gives us, as I said, margin to trade with. So also there, it increases our ability to trade.

And the next question is coming from Albert Ploegh, ING.

A few questions from my side as well. The first one is indeed coming back to Michael's question on the U.S. I'd just like to understand a bit that -- how would you fall throughout the quarter because you flag that the high-yield asset classes and the commodities, of course, were pretty strong in the quarter, probably Q2 towards April. So I'd like to understand a bit, is that then also basically the main explanation? I know it's not a key metric, but that spreads are quite attractive on those 2 asset classes compared to, let's say, quarters in the past. So is that an explanation? And I -- can I assume that, that bulk of the volatility has been behind now? So I like understand kind of a bit like Michael's that it's more of the U.S. resources, which are extremely strong. And on the cost base outlook. Yes, you maintained at 10%. I understand, of course, that Q1 -- first half included EUR 1.5 million exceptionals related to COVID measures. Will that drop out? Or do you still expect some one-offs in the second half? And what are your plans in terms of hiring? I know in -- with the full year, you cautioned a bit in terms of, let's say, expanding the workforce further this year. Is that still the situation? I assume, yes, given your 10% outlook, but some thoughts around the hiring in September would be helpful.

I can answer your first question. Obviously, the improvements we've made to the infrastructure and the set up in the U.S. should lead to an increase in KPI relatively versus the past for all market circumstances. So we also see this -- the article of patterns existing, so the KPIs are increasing. So also in the lower vola periods, yes, we can confirm that we have increased performance versus the past. So it's not only a volatility increase, which leads to NTI. These are smaller steps we make in all kinds of factors, which lead to a higher volatility -- sorry, higher volumes we trade, but also an increased revenue capture for these products. So indeed, the volatility helps for the absolute amount, but definitely, we also see improvements in KPI.

Yes. And if I can add to Folkert's comments, I think we've been investing in the U.S., both in increasing our footprint both on exchanges by connecting to new ones. And also there, the Members Exchange investment is an important one, but also enlarging our client-facing franchise. Also there are kind of the comment about the multibillion-dollar OTC trading. It's a -- yes, a confirmation of the growth we are experiencing there, and that will continue, but also the product coverage. Also, there are investments we made in the products and asset classes where we're very strong at. On top of that, we're kind of increasingly expanding the products we trade. So also there, it's a combination of a lot of things, and that's why we also have -- the U.S. is a growth area for us. It will continue. So we also there -- this is a result of our investments in the past. Then coming back to your question about the cost base. So I said, EUR 1.5 million of one-off, of course, but also some reduction in kind of less travel. So I do expect to continue our kind of BCP setup. So we have multiple locations where we trade from in every region. So that's something also looking a bit into the future where we are to date, that's something we need to continue. So there will be some additional costs. There's a slight set-off with kind of lower travel and lower costs in some other items. But we recommit to the 10% maximum growth, especially year-over-year because as you've seen in our cost last year, there was a particular step-up in Q3 and Q4 in our cost base, and that has to do with the hiring. But also we had some significant investments, which kicked in Q3, Q2 for last year. So year-over-year, we're comfortable to be within guidance of 10%. And also looking at our head count after the summer, we have a lot of graduate programs that are starting. So both in training, but also in our product or software development departments, we see -- I mean we'll remain, and we are committed, to starting those classes. So we might see an increase in head count, but that will -- that won't breach the 10% cap in our cost base. So we're still hiring. We have a clear strategy and growth part. We have a very clear road map and investments we need to make, to make sure that we grow. So we're committed to keep on investing in our people and the right people on hiring.

And if I may, one small follow-up on the hiring. Do you see any changes in competition for good talents from other -- yes, let's say, not even per se, a trading firm like yourself, but maybe from other IT kind of companies? Or is that still the same? You're still able to attract all the talents you want?

Well, it depends a bit. I think people are still a bit hesitant to move or to interview. They're uncertain about the future. So we do not see -- I think for experienced people, it's less of an issue, but I think especially the graduates, which will start next year, so 2021. I think there's a bit more uncertainty how -- what their future will look like and how they graduate and when. So and also there -- the big campus recruitment campaigns start in the fall. So it's also to be seen how that will develop. And that's kind of a global thing, both in Asia but also in the U.S. So that's kind of -- that's what we're working on. So it's a bit of a mixed.

And the next question is coming from Ron Heijdenrijk, ABN AMRO.

A few questions from my side. Could you please give an update on the market shares you see per geography? Then moving, your comment about regulatory change, IFR/IFD as per June 2021. If I'm calculating it correctly, it's roughly EUR 20 million in capital free fall. What are your plans with that? And then finally, from my side, what is the driver behind the lower fixed personnel cost quarter-on-quarter, which is about almost EUR 1 million lower? And also, I saw that there's 8 less traders Q-on-Q. So what's the -- what happened there? What is the background there? If you could give some color, that would be great.

I can comment on the market shares. The -- what we see in Europe is on exchange. Although we already have, let's say, between 30, 35, it's approaching 40 -- going over 40 here and there. And there's some [ losses ] even higher. So that's maybe a surprise, but still getting stronger, which is very, very nice. In U.S., it's been steadily increasing as well. Obviously, there, if you compare the different product categories, it has a different picture in the fixed income ETFs where prices are more competitive on rank and on amount of the market share than prices on the equity side with the SPY products being far more competitive and more technologically strong players in there. So it's more difficult to become top 2, top 3 there. But these high volumes influence the total quite a lot. So depending on what categories you look at, you see a specific amount, but all is increasing. And APAC as well. APAC is also month-on-month increasing in terms of the market share. And that's across all products as well. But it's all fully in line with our strategy -- our focus areas and strategy. And the number of traders going down, so we're going to the fourth question. You can reclassify some of the traders as being advanced trader or at-more-risk trader. And so the number of traders hasn't put a number of people in the trading team actually haven't done that.

Okay. That's clear. And with regards to the market shares, how about the OTC market shares?

Yes, also increasing pretty strong. So for some regions, it's adding new counterparties, which needs some more accessibility to the flow. But also the hit rates go up, getting strong on the pricing side, but also on the connectivity of counterparties. So we are looking at different angles. We're looking at the coverage of the flow we see and how much we do, it's increasing, but also the competitiveness of the quality itself, we also see that. Yes, we are picking up a lot of market share from parties that are sort of dropping out or losing the competitive game here.

And then finally, maybe on that, is that market share gain, is that permanent? Or are these parties that are temporarily out of market?

Yes. Well, that should be permanent for us, right?

Yes.

And then your questions about IFD/IFR. So we ran detailed analysis after publishing the Level 2 text from IFD/IFR. So from what it seems is that it's lower, slightly lower. It has mainly to do with how the requirements are built up. So there is a -- so we have to take into account a countercyclical buffer, which falls away that won't be -- that won't apply in the new regulation. So that's the main change where we benefit from. And then it's kind of roughly in line with the current requirements because it's also based on CRR. So indeed, it's probably around 20-ish lower as said in the press release as well. We do have very significant growth areas, especially in our fixed income asset class with all the products we trade there. Capital requirements are not always very efficient there. So we want to kind of retain some capital to make sure that we can facilitate growth in these areas. And then about the lower employee expenses that has mainly to do with the travel. So the drop there is mainly about the lower travel expenses we experienced in the NPE expenses category.

And the next question is coming from Thomas Couvreur, KBC Securities.

Maybe a few follow-up questions on earlier comments on the U.S. results. I think you mentioned product mix, but I mean just to get some -- maybe some additional color on that. I think we saw in the first half of the year on fixed income ETFs often some disconnect between ETF and underlying NAV. This continued also throughout April. Is that one of the elements that you see contributing to the result in the U.S.? Or is that an event which doesn't really -- or isn't really relevant for you? And then maybe, again, on the dividend. Earlier, you mentioned that potentially second half would see a catch-up. Difficult to assess at this moment, of course, but assume that second half of the year is materially lower than the first half in terms of EPS. Could be that you need significantly more than second half EPS as payout to reach like a 65% or 70% payout ratio, is that something that you would be considering? Or would you want to remain prudent on that side?

Yes. On the comments about the U.S. and the fixed income disconnects between the NAV of the ETFs and the product itself. Obviously, if there's volatility and uncertainty in the market, there is sort of a correlation between volatility and flows, it also flows from primary to secondary markets. If we're going to -- people want to sell their products, the market makers facilitate the redemption process and need to go to the underlying market to sell the basket. So any volatility will lead to more activity, and therefore, trading possibilities. So obviously, if there's volatility, that gives a chance for us to trade and to make profit. So it's not per se the difference between the NFV and the credit price of the ETF. It's more the volatility that brings the opportunity. If you look at the fixed income ETFs, those were far more liquid than some of the underlying. So this also underlines the strength of the ETF market. So that's a good thing, but it doesn't fully explain our NTI per region because we trade the whole range. And there was also increased activity in all the other asset classes. So commodities moved. So we cover the whole range. And then obviously, oil was on the move in April as well, leading to a lot of volatility in trading activity, and thus, ETFs, but even in the straightforward ones by the domestic products, there was an increased activity and even there, the spreads widened a bit compared to the lower volatilities. And so all of these things combined help. So that's one category help, yes, but the others also helped. So distribution is not being off. It's been pretty, we call it, distributed all over the desks.

On your question on the dividends, it's very important for us to have a consistent message and dividend policy. So also, historically, we had 50% or slightly close to 50% of our net earnings as half year dividends. And as the dividend policy states, it's at least 50%. So at year-end, we will kind of assess what our kind of capital requirements are, what our regulatory capital base will be and also given our growth bands and capital requirements, we will assess the final dividend. But as you can see on Slide 7, we -- even after the dividend, we have significant regulatory capital excess. So there is an ability with the current -- within the current situation to do so. So there, again, also our strong capital base, our highly cash flow-generative business model that gives us the ability to pay out a significant part of our earnings as dividends. Also there, I think the EUR 4 is, again, a confirmation of our strong cash flow-positive business model.

[Operator Instructions] And the next question is coming from Gregory Simpson, Exane BNP Paribas.

Congratulations on the H1 results. Just a couple of questions on my end. Firstly, it seems to me that the growth is really starting to pick up in the active or nontransparent ETF market. I think there's actually been more active ETF launches than passive ETF launches this year. Wondering if Flow Traders were able to benefit from this growing market in terms of are you signing up as authorized participants to the active managers that have been launching these? And then secondly, one of your peers last week talked about their July net trading income being up 70 or -- 70% to 75% versus 2018 or 2019 averages. I'm just wondering if you could give some color on what you're seeing so far in Q3. Or if not, perhaps the level of NTI in June as, I guess, April was the biggest month within Q2. And then just lastly, sorry, the -- you mentioned an ambition to be top 5 in the U.S. Can I just check what position do you think you are today in terms of ranking?

So on the growth of the new type of products. So we also mentioned in the presentation that we see an increase in interest in the ESG products. So a lot of new ETFs also futures are coming up. And we have full coverage there. We trade these with our standard good trading capabilities. So we do see a lot of interest there. And we cover them, and we cover them similar to the existing set without any issues to suspend it. The nontransparent ones as in active ETFs, there is some movement there. The points are not that great yet. It's what we see. It's -- but if it becomes bigger, it's also -- for us, it's okay as long as there is a transparent system behind the pricing of the NAV, right? It's a fair level playing field for everybody. As an example, intraday changes to the product makes it more difficult to replicate. So we do stand for fair and, let's say, replicable products for the industry, for the investor as well, that they understand what the value is. And then we can provide liquidity in a normal fashion.

I think about current trading, as usual, we don't comment on current trading. I think our monthly statistics, your experience and volatility should give you a good kind of view and handle on the results. Yes, I think that there's not a lot else to comment. About the ranking in the U.S., Folkert do you to start, and I might add?

Yes. So the U.S. market in terms of statistics is nominated by products like SPY. If you look at a top 5, it's not per se. The market share of all the products combined, and they were sort of average of it because they are only looking at SPY. And obviously, there, it's more difficult to get in the top 3. If you look at fixed income, we already are top 3. So we're trying to get there at a steady top 2. And #1 is the obvious goal there. And so on the different categories, we have different way of defining our competitive position [Audio Gap]

So there are no further questions. Please continue.

Thank you, operator. I'd like to thank the analysts for participating in today's call. Please note, we will host our next analyst call when we release our fourth quarter and full year 2020 results early next year. Details for this call and timing of this call will follow in due course. Our third quarter trading update is scheduled to release on the 22nd of October 2020. This now ends the call. And thank you very much again, and have a good day.