FMC Corporation (FMC) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

June 18, 2024

New York Stock Exchange US Materials Chemicals conference_presentation 39 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#1

Next up, I'm very proud to announce we have FMC attending. As I think everybody on this line knows FMC is one of my favorite stocks to cover. I do not say that with a light heart, love covering agriculture, love dealing with the organization over many, many years, which includes Andrew Sandifer, who's obviously a seasoned veteran at the institution. It's going to be great, we're going to sit down for a quick fireside chat. I think we have some prepared remarks, and then we'll dive into some Q&A. So I just want to thank Andrew, once again, really appreciate the attendance today.

Andrew Sandifer

executive
#2

Thanks for having us here today.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#3

So perhaps the first question, I think that is on everybody's minds. It's just -- would you enlighten us to the extent of which you can on the recent management changes and just the onus of these shifts and how investors should be perceiving them as we go into the second half of the year?

Andrew Sandifer

executive
#4

Right. Certainly, I'm glad to share some perspectives, but obviously only so much I can say, the simplest way to answer the question is simply this. Mark Douglas and our Board of Directors came to an agreement that it was time for him to step down and for there to be a leadership change. Pierre Brondeau, who was our CEO from 2010 until 2020, and who has been Chairman since 2010, Chairman of the Board, will return -- has returned to the CEO seat. He is getting reimmersed into the company. Pierre has obviously been involved in the company for quite a long time, but it is different as a Chairman than as an operating executive. So for the last 4 years, certainly very deeply engaged in strategy, but getting his hands back into more of the hand operational details. So look, I'm personally very sad to see Mark go. I have a tremendous respect for him as a leader and have had the opportunity to work closely beside him for many, many years. I thank him as a friend as well as a colleague. But again, the best thing I can say at this point is simply, he and the Board agreed it was time for a change. I would note that Mark is staying on as an executive adviser through September 1, to make sure we do have a smooth transition. Obviously, with a former CEO, current Chairman, coming back into the CEO seat, we don't anticipate any issues. Pierre knows the management team. Pierre knows the company very well. But he does need a little bit of time to dig back into the details. And for me, look, I've had the pleasure of working for Pierre for almost 20 years, 14 years at FMC and another company prior to that. He is somebody I have tremendous respect for as a business leader, as a strategic thinker and as a force of nature sometimes. So we're all enjoying and adjusting to the changes, but I think it will be a seamless transition. And I do think, again, I want to just give much credit and thanks to Mark for everything he did while he was CEO.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#5

We can both agree, we can certainly -- I can certainly echo these remarks about Mark and perhaps Pierre is one of the most passionate people that -- in the agricultural world. It's a tightly knit community, but...

Andrew Sandifer

executive
#6

Absolutely.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#7

His reputation precedes him. So we're obviously looking forward to having him back as well. Just -- I certainly don't want to spend this time too short term in nature. But obviously, there's been a lot of debate over the last few quarters now, I think, over a year on just CBC, destock inventories. We've had a normalization of supply chains. It seems like end market demand is actually pretty stable. Perhaps you could just give us a real quick trip around the world as we've tended to do our conferences in the past and what you're seeing?

Andrew Sandifer

executive
#8

Sure. And look, I think I'll start with the overall environment. I think the one thing that's been very steady and consistent over the past several years through -- going into the overbuying in '22 through the correction that started in '23 that continues today, consumption of crop protection chemicals by growers has been steady and growing, right? The end use of products has continued to be robust. These are products that you need to drive yield if you're a farmer to both make your economics, but more importantly, to provide the world of food, the fuel, the feed, the fiber that it needs for a growing population. And to deal with much more volatile growing conditions, where the old formulas don't always work. You may need some additional help from Crop Protection. So first and foremost, we are -- we continue to see very strong end consumption by growers. Now the rollercoaster we've been on where our industry went through significant supply disruptions during COVID, significant raw material inflation with continued supply disruptions coming in through '21, over buying in '22, fueled by fears of supply and security as well as hedging against inflation, and then a massive correction in 2023. As interest rates moved up and people decided that they were comfortable that there was enough material available out there. So where we are in the state of the game around the world is, it varies significantly by country. We are still in the midst of this recovery. I broadly described it and we'll continue to thrive. I believe we're bottoming out. We're moving away from correction and moving towards recovery. But it really does depend on what country you're in. I think in the U.S., we're probably most advanced with inventories at the farm and retail levels at or below normal. Distribution, it's a mixed story. It depends on which distributor, which products, but it is significantly improved. So as we go through this season, we certainly think we're coming to more normalized inventory levels across the channel in the U.S. In Brazil, we just finished a growing season. We're in the off season going into the next growing season. I think inventories are in a healthy place. They're not at absolute lows, but they are approaching much more healthy inventory levels. When you get to the rest of the world, Europe, there's some spots where there's been some adverse weather in the early part of the year, U.K. in particular, with some really heavy rain in the spring that have still some remaining pockets of channel inventory. But broadly speaking, inventories are getting down to more normal levels across Europe. Asia is a mixed bag. I think the industry as a whole, not just FMC has a significant channel inventory backup in India. You've heard comments from us, you've heard comments from UPL, you've heard comments from Sumitomo, completely different business mix and approach, but their Q1 results, they noted that there were substantial channel inventory that's built up in India after several successive less-than-ideal monsoon seasons. So Asia is a bit more of a mixed bag. I think that phenomenon though of getting inventories down is an important first step in the recovery, but it's not the end of the recovery, right? And this is the question of what's the right level for the channel to hold over the long term. And so that's something we can click down on to if that's of interest.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#9

Just a quick follow-up, so I'm -- just a few of those. North America, you and as well as some of your competitors are certainly conveying that or the closest and I hear things like the new normal. In other words, inventory is below historical averages or just trying to calibrate exactly where it should be. This time last year was when a lot of things unraveled for the industry holistically. When you think about your second half order books, your product positioning, your market share, quick question there would be, is it stable. But how are you thinking about the second half last year in terms of purchase and behavior? It's our contention that's mostly just in time. But what's overall kind of your view versus specifically 2023?

Andrew Sandifer

executive
#10

Compared to this time last year, things are significantly improved. And this time last year, the business ground to a halt. Basically, at the same time around the world, right at the end of May of last year, the crop protection industry just stopped. And we -- where the normal dialogue with customers and normal interaction with customers that are an important part of us understanding demand signals just were shut off. So -- and I want to think about this year versus last year, one thing that's critically different. We are having conversations with customers about their future needs. So whether that's very large growers or co-ops or distributors or retailers depending on the country we're in, we are having those kinds of discussions. So for example, in Brazil, this time last year, it was, don't knock on the door, we don't want to see you. Well, we're having conversations. We're having real conversations now on what they think their needs for the next season are. And it's important because -- and not just for FMC, but for all the major crop chemical producers, our supply chains are not short, right? You cannot instantaneously adjust production to meet demand. We have to have an indication of what's coming to be able to manage inventories and production planning. So having those conversations is good. I am really careful about using the word normal anymore. This is going into my seventh year in this role, and I've yet to see a normal year. What I will say is we are seeing behaviors and engagement that are more like what we've had in the past when we've had better visibility. In terms of the absolute order book, it's not as deep as what we've had at different points in the past where we might have had more formally committed orders at this time of the year, but it's infinitely better than where it was in June of 2023. So again, I think this notion that we're transitioning from the correction to a recovery is real. And we see indications of this, both with these kinds of engagement with customers with return to buying, but we are still seeing more small orders and more frequent cycles of ordering. Just in time, I think, is a misnomer. But I think this idea of more frequent smaller orders closer to the time of application while all of the manufacturers ourselves included, have probably more inventory on hand than we would like to carry or can bluntly afford to carry over a long term. While that happens, that behavior can still work. Over time, there's going to need to be a rebalancing. These are -- crop protection chemistry, our products are very seasonal in nature. You only -- you need them in the growing season and they are of critical timing. If you're a farmer with the crop in the field and you get a bug infestation, you need an insecticide today. You don't need it a week from now. You don't need it 2 weeks from now. So if your local retailer doesn't have it on the shelf, you're going to go to somebody else. So right now, the inventory is in the channel, the retail and distribution layers are able to get by with lower levels of inventory because manufacturers have available inventory to do servicing of much smaller, more frequent cycle orders. That's not long-term sustainable. Over time, this is going to have to rebalance. I expect, however, that transition is going to be a little lumpy and bumpy. So while I'm confident that we are in this transition from correction to recovery, the next couple of quarters could still be very volatile. And where we get back to a more balanced pull-through of that consistent, steady and growing use of crop protection products by the grower pulling through the channel all the way back to manufacturers, which fundamentally blocked up last year when the amount of inventory between the manufacturers and the grower just got out of hand.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#11

So with the Latin American example, I mean, it's kind of been a little put and take, just trying to establish. But once again, dangerous term, the new normal. I don't know that, I've covered agriculture for well over a decade now, really 12, 13 years. And I can tell you, I don't remember a normal year, so to speak, I started in the drought 2012. So -- but in Brazil, it's also -- it's a very difficult market to know exactly what's going on because you're going to hear one thing outside of Rurópolis than you are in the Paraná state. It's just suffice to say, but when -- it seems like things are generally like these small batch orders that you're basically getting is still generally constructive. The other dynamic that you had last year is you had adverse weather kind of exacerbating the effects of the destock just based on where inventories were post the '21, '22 seasons. As we head into the second half in terms of just the normalization of acreage and obviously, you don't touch every crop, but you touch a lot of them.

Andrew Sandifer

executive
#12

A lot of them.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#13

So how do you think about just the potential just marginal benefits from just the normalization of crops in the second half of the year? And in terms of end market demand, is the end market demand as stable as it is in other regions in Brazil? Or is it slightly different?

Andrew Sandifer

executive
#14

Yes. Look, Brazil is the most -- the largest, most diverse, most important agricultural market in the world. You know this, but just grounding for everybody listening. We participate in a really broad cross-section of crops. It's one of the key attributes of FMC is our diversification by crops. And what we're seeing is generally healthy conditions. Farmers, it really depends on the circumstances. If you're farming your own land versus renting your economics are different. It depends on which crop. But it is a bit where we had very, very, if not peak, very, very high farmer profitability the last couple of seasons. And I'll use the same analogy. If you have -- if you max out bonus 2 years in a row and then the next year, you're pretty light on bonus, you feel much poorer than you would. It doesn't mean you're actually in bad shape financially. You just feel worse. So I'm not to minimize that there are some areas where farm economics aren't ideal, particularly for those renting land. But in a lot of other places, the Brazilian farmer is doing okay. And that is a resilient sector, right? And look, to be a farmer, you have to be an optimist to begin with. You're dealing with weather volatility. Your dealing with pest pressures and diseases and all these other fun things and a long growing season before that you've tied up all your cash before you actually get to see if you make any money. I think that, that sort of entrepreneurial spirit in the Brazilian farmer isn't going away. So we are seeing -- we're in the bit of the low right now. Q2 is not a big season in Brazil. It's going into the winter in Latin America. As we go into the new growing season, particularly planning in mid-September, we'll continue to get a better read. But certainly, all signals are very healthy, good acreage, good planning intentions. Good healthy appetite to drive plant crops and drive yield. So again, I -- at this point, I can't tell you what normal is, but I can tell you what better is and '24 is better than '23.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#15

The 2 other things that I think are -- I think the investment community, I mean, forcibly in a way, just -- it has to look at short-term inventory corrections and I know what the narrative is there, which is, in my opinion, has been distracting from a lot of the things that are going well. I mean you've launched a lot of new products in various regions, but specifically Brazil, including the new fungicide that you purchased, correct me, if I'm wrong, back in 2020. It seems like things ultimately for the intermediate to long term are still going well. Could you sit on kind of the new product outlook, perhaps across the Americas because I'd say the U.S. matters now and then Brazil will matter in the second half, how investors should be thinking, am I correct to say that it's probably not as much of the narrative as it probably should be over the next few seasons.

Andrew Sandifer

executive
#16

Look, I think we've tried to talk about this and we're going to continue to talk about this, but one of the silver linings in what has been a very challenging last 4 quarters has been how strongly our new products have performed. So just to put it in perspective, in our industry, it can take 10 to 12 years to bring a new synthetic product from identifying a molecule that looks interesting to actually having a registered and packaged and formulated for sale product introduced in the marketplace. So when we look at new products, we tend to talk about products that we've introduced in the last 5 years, right? Because this is not a short cycle introduction kind of industry. But in the last 5 years, we have really been driving up the level of new product introduction. And in 2023, almost 14% of our sales were from products that we've introduced in the last 5 years. The U.S., in particular, was significantly higher than that. Brazil is an area which has been lagging and we're starting to really now see the benefit of new product introductions. So those new product introductions are both formulations of existing active ingredients as well as the introduction of fundamentally new active ingredients. So on the formulation side, we've been doing a lot with our diamides. We can talk a little more about this in terms of adding value -- bringing value-added and differentiated formulations of the diamine to the market. But we've also been introducing, as you mentioned, Fluindapyr our new fungicide, when we co-developed with another company, we bought out their partnership rights in late teens, but have been involved in the development of that molecule since, I think, about 2012, when that actually was early stage development. But we started introducing Fluindapyr under the name of Adastrio in both the U.S. and Brazil, having very good response. And for a company that's very insecticide-heavy, it's an important part of our new product strategy, which is to diversify a bit, balance out. And we like insecticides, but we are underrepresented in fungicides. We're underrepresented in herbicides. And we look at what our new active ingredient pipeline, 4 key new active ingredient compounds that we are in the process of introducing from the past 2 years through 2033 that collectively are about $2 billion in peak sales. We have 1 fungicide and 3 herbicides. We've introduced Fluindapyr, starting -- continuing to roll out over out of a number of other markets over the next several years. Isoflex, which is a herbicide we introduced first in Australia and then into Argentina, will be coming to Europe shortly, which will continue to build the cereals herbicide in particular. So Europe, a big cereal market. Next in queue is Dodhylex, which is a herbicide for dealing with grass weeds, particularly useful in rice, which itself is a grass. So being able to be selective and control weeds without damaging the rice plant itself, it's a pretty tricky chemistry. So that will start being rolled out in late '25 and into '26, particularly in Asia, it has significant potential to really increase our participation in rice markets in Asia and our herbicides business. And then we have another herbicide Rimisoxafen that will come out in 2029, which is really for coin-in to large row crops. And in both cases, there are fundamentally new modes of action, bringing a different way of managing those weed pressures to growers. So that new product piece is a huge part of the story. I certainly recognize that the businesses had tough performance in the last several quarters. But again, the silver lining here is we have been continuing to see stronger than the new products whether that's new formulations on existing active ingredients or new active ingredient products really have strongly performed relative to our overall portfolio.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#17

[indiscernible] investment communities, losing a bit of sight over, just given the noise in the last 12 months across the industry.

Andrew Sandifer

executive
#18

Understood. Understood.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#19

But it's one of things that I think just more attention investors are able to spend on that portfolio, I think the better off the FMC narrows ultimately going to be. One of the last questions that's been on everybody's mind. On the volume front, then we can obviously hit on some other aspects of the portfolio has been and there's perhaps, perhaps part of this is correct, perhaps part of it is incorrect, but there has been the belief that there's been this acceleration of the Chinese generic competition, specifically in the Brazilian market. And then even within the Brazilian market, people have been saying, "Oh, my gosh, it's insecticides." I mean these are arguably completely different products, but people aren't here to hear my opinion. They're here to hear yours. So what have you been seeing in the market? Has this been just been a normalization over the last few years? How should we be interpreting those data sets?

Andrew Sandifer

executive
#20

Yes. I think people need to look over a longer time period than just the last year because they're losing the perspective. The Brazilian market has always had significant participation of generics. Again, it's the largest, most diverse crop chemical market in the world. So what we're seeing right now, we don't believe is anything different than long-term trend, which is Chinese producers and generic producers have a significant participation in the Brazilian market. They always did, they always will. We face them in some of the less differentiated parts of our portfolio. And we don't -- and many of the more differentiated parts of our portfolio. So we have not seen nor do we believe there's been a disproportionate impact by Chinese generics in the Brazilian market. Yes. Bluntly, I think the biggest impact has been lack of demand, right? Now when you have excess supply and lack of demand, you do get pricing pressures, right? I mean it's -- this is micro Econ 101, right? So certainly, that -- when that is around you, and that's the tone that can have carry on knock-on effects, short term, right? But in terms of the long-term ability to position for value and the willingness of growers to pay for products that perform better, that's still there. It has just been completely masked by an absence of demand as people have been just very abruptly, very violently correcting inventory levels in the channel.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#21

I think the next question, and you just alluded right there, I mean, obviously, pricing has been at a lot of price, the kind of the beginning part of this decade. A lot of mixed benefits as well. Where do we stand on a regional basis and perhaps we can save Latin America for last because that's probably the biggest debate, correct me if I'm wrong. But what would you see in the other main 3 geographies, and we'll do LatAm separately?

Andrew Sandifer

executive
#22

Yes. Look, I think pricing overall for us, we've been taking price reductions in the low to mid-single digits over the past 3 quarters, right? 3%, 4%, 5% and depending on the quarter. We -- when we guided Q2, we were clear that we thought we had a mid-single-digit price headwind this quarter. The pricing headwinds have been most significant in Latin America and Asia. We've actually still had -- continue to have positive pricing in Europe throughout. And then the U.S. has been very light if any price reduction. So it is a story of different markets. Again, in Brazil, it's again, the biggest, most diverse, most competitive market, and the one where you're subject to the most volatility. So we have talked openly, we've done price increases. We've done some accommodations for customers where we've given some discounts or some rebate basically on existing inventory where cost -- current pricing is below cost that our customers had in inventory. And Asia, it's been to a lesser degree, those kinds of incentives, but just dealing with some -- with competitive pressures and some pricing. As we look to the rest of the year, at this point, we think we're going to continue fighting those battles. But we also note that we're anniversarying some of these price decreases, right? As we into Q3 and Q4, particularly in Latin America and the new growing season, you're anniversarying high single-digit price decreases we took in the prior year. You're not starting from the same point. So it's not to say there couldn't be further modest price erosion to headwinds, but we're not expecting a major downward swing in the second half.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#23

And perhaps setting the stage for the second half, over the past 4 or 5 quarters as a consequence of everything that's been going in the marketplace. Obviously, you've had to adjust manufacturing. There was a healthy price cost narrative with -- for the industry, which has kind of been -- I wouldn't say it's gone, I'd say it's deferred, significantly deferred. When you take a look at your manufacturing operations for the second half of '24 and perhaps more importantly, let's just talk about '25 as well. How should we think of -- how is the FMC positioned in terms of just both those things in terms of to get gross margin back and kind of enable the investment community to hopefully do what we do best and actually forecast the next few years, from that new starting point?

Andrew Sandifer

executive
#24

Sure. So I think we've covered most of the topics on price at this point. I think from a cost perspective, a couple of dynamics to think about. First, the simple one, raw material costs. Raw material costs in 2024 are better than they were in 2023. They're a positive benefit for us. In Q1, that was a tailwind. It was able to offset other headwinds. But if raw material costs continue to be a tailwind for us throughout the year. Unfortunately, as we move through the year, we're facing headwinds from unabsorbed fixed costs. So volume variance is an accounting speak, right, which when -- because we are not running anything near full capacity at the moment. Think of it this way, we have a bunch of different production lines, most of which are either dedicated to a single molecule to a very limited number of molecules. We've been bringing up lines up and down as we need to make small amounts of production. We're not running at a steady pace right at the moment. As we see volume recovering in the second half and going into the beginning of next year, we are starting to bring up lines again, and we will start more fully absorbing that fixed cost. So those unabsorbed fixed costs as well as some modest increases in logistics costs from higher volumes and a little bit of inflation here in the second half are going to be where those headwinds actually more than offset the COGS tailwind in say the raw material headwinds, tailwinds in the second half. So Q2 through Q4, still have raw material tailwinds. They're more than offset by volume variances and logistics costs. As we get into 2025, however, the dynamics are different. What we're -- as we look at buying material right now, prices are pretty flat. So we don't expect a raw material headwind or tailwind in '25 at this point. Still early. But from what we can see, we're not really seeing a raw material issue one way or the other in '25. What we are seeing and what we do expect is a reversal away from having unabsorbed fixed cost, as we start bringing manufacturing lines up. And with some of the changes we've made in our footprint through the restructuring program in the midst of, we should get back up to more full utilization by year-end, and the absence of that headwind in '25 becomes a tailwind, right? So from a cost perspective, I'd point to moving back to more normal production rates, more full utilization and getting out from under of these volume variance is a key upside going into '25 in the cost equation.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#25

You said something, and I just want to save this one for them, but perhaps it's a good time to ask you now, when we think about your manufacturing asset base, I mean, you've had a lot going on, quite frankly, for half of a decade. You moved a lot out of China. You've gone into India. You've enhanced your operations in other countries. Between that and the fixed cost absorption, when volume comes back, how confident are you that investors are going to be able to see the -- sorry for the stupid sell-side term, the fruits of your labor because, once again, this isn't started 12 months ago, started 5 years ago?

Andrew Sandifer

executive
#26

Yes, this started in 2019, right? We had significant production disruptions in China from some disaster that happened in China with a plant explosion, not our plant, but nearby one of our suppliers as well as just a change in environmental enforcement by the Chinese government at that time. And we went down, we had been on a path, but we really accelerated this path of making sure we had multiple points of supply for all key materials, and it wasn't specifically about getting out of China, was more making sure that you had resilience in the network. So we were actually well prepared going into COVID because we had been doing years of work, and we were continuing to do the work to make sure we had all these alternative locations. But look, I think the bigger point to your question is this, I think FMC is really well positioned to accelerate out of the bottoming out of this correction, right? We've done the things to make sure we have a robust supply network, not depend -- overly dependent on any one country, but also pretty efficient. We've been very actively doing restructuring, both in the manufacturing and supply network. But more importantly, in our operating cost structure, making structural improvements in our SG&A so that when -- as we do bring back volume, we both more fully absorb the fixed costs in manufacturing, but we lever our SG&A again, right? So at the EBITDA level, the incremental margin is very attractive. So I think this -- I think we're at a very good place, both from our ability to respond and ramp up and from having done things to improve our cost structure on a permanent basis, so that as we do get volume recovery, we'll get very strong incremental margins.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#27

I think it's probably a good time to shift to perhaps the next topic that's on everybody's minds, about the diamide franchise. I think we've seen a lot of noise over the last once again, 12 to 18 months, some justified, some perhaps not. Can you just give us a quick update on how you view the diamides franchise, perhaps once again, I always like the quick around the world, and then we could talk about some more specifics from there.

Andrew Sandifer

executive
#28

Yes. So look, for those of you less familiar with FMC, would certainly refer you to 2 key documents: One, the investor presentation -- Investor Day presentation, we made November '23 as well as our earnings call presentation that we made for Q3 of '23 that has a lot of detail, and you can also find this on our using case. But if you're trying to get up to speed or refresh your knowledge on diamides, those are 2 really important places to look. Diamides are between 35% and 40% of FMC sales depending on the year. There are 2 chemicals: Rynaxypyr, which is larger, about 2/3 of the sales; and Cyazypyr about 1/3 of the sales. They are better performing than most other insecticides, are more targeted, they are more environmentally friendly. They're the better mousetrap. And they have been consistently for more than a decade in taking share from older, harsher less-performing chemistries. So they are a tremendous part of our past, and they're a tremendous part of our future. They're an anchor part of our franchise. We have not been standing still with the diamides. We bought the diamides from the former DuPont in November of 2017 as a part of the Dow-DuPont required divestitures. From the moment we bought them, we've had questions about patents and life cycle. And from the moment we've had them, there's been a tremendous amount of misinformation in the marketplace. Bluntly, and I'd say this very emphatically, there is no patent cliff, right? People got hung up in 2017, and I think there's been a bit of misinformation in the marketplace in the last 9 months, particularly around the diamides. The composition of matter patents, the simplest patents on the molecule itself, all expired in '22 and the early '23. We have additional patents on manufacturing processes and intermediates that depending on whether it's either Cyazypyr or Rynaxypyr depending on what country go through '27 and beyond. Some begin expiring '25, some in '27 and beyond. And then we have patents on specific formulations that go from '27 and in some cases, for another 20 years. So I think people confuse the idea that the composition of matter patent is expiring with the fact -- with an idea that, that business is all of a sudden going to radically change for us. It won't in part because we've been planning for this for most of a decade, right? Where we are intentionally moving our mix of diamide products to higher-value formulations that are differentiated that are, in many cases, patent protected, sometimes new patents in advance of generic competition entering, and generic competitors, when they do and they will enter, they're in a couple of countries. When they do it, enter, we'll be able to compete with single solar formulations, low concentration, 20-year-old technology. There will be a place for those products. And there will absolutely be where for Rynaxypyr in particular, similar to every other major crop chemical as it's gone off patent, an opportunity to expand the share of that chemical in the marketplace, by broadening its use with lower price points. You've got players coming in who are willing to make a lower profit, and there's plenty of addressable market where the diamides are a better performing product. You just need a different price point than what we've been offering at right now. So we've been carefully managing this transition through use of partnerships, they're introducing value-added formulations through cultivating brands. And I would expect what we're going to see here is a maturing of the portfolio and increasing of volume. Average price probably goes down, but you're going to have -- at the higher end, value-added formulations, again, continue to be patented and highly differentiated that command very, very strong pricing and very, very strong margins. You're going to have branded diamides. Our existing formulations with really strong brands, that will continue to command a significant premium in the marketplace, because growers are naturally conservative. They want to know that what they're buying is the real thing. It's going to work. It's not going to damage their crop. It's going to do what they need to do in controlling the path. And then at the lower end of the market with lower performing less differentiated products, you're going to have generic entry, but you can have a broadening of the market where they can go again to applications that we don't pursue today. So we feel very confident that the diamides continue to be a driver of value for FMC and a driver of gross profit dollar growth for quite some time. So understand the skepticism, understand the concerns. But I think if people dig into the history of the crop protection industry, it's not us just telling the story, it's 5 or 7 major other molecules you can look at the case histories of and see that the original innovator retains both the majority -- vast majority of the volume and the vast majority of the value of the molecule and that, that value grows after patent expiration.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#29

Appreciate you have one of those as well.

Andrew Sandifer

executive
#30

A couple of them. Yes. .

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#31

One big one. Let's stick to that for just a second. I think one of the things, and I understand you're probably not want to go too specific here, so I'll free you up on that. But there's always a but with me, when you look at that marketplace and you look at what Mark, Pierre, you have accomplished over the last, I'd say, actually, decade, I'd actually say now decade and half now. There's branded share, there's molecular market share, and on the molecular market share, you actually do have a lot of favorable agreements with some of the, let's say, the largest well-capitalized key term, CPC manufacturers in the entire world. And I think that really narrows the playing field of that potential generic competition. Now I'll leave this as an open-ended question. But am I thinking about that the right way, is the market thinking about that the right way in terms of who is actually going to be competing kind of specifically at that lower end? And are they even able to kind of establish the scale they need to become a threat over the next 2 years?

Andrew Sandifer

executive
#32

So I would certainly say, when you look at our major markets, not all the markets, but the major markets, we've had partners in this business since 2017, right? So large, well-capitalized, multinationals, who sell Rynaxypyr-based products, their own formulations and some of the simple -- basic formulation that we sell at the least differentiated one what we sell. And we've had that sort of partners in terms of covering more of the market, for -- again, for many, many years, and we pursued expanding those partnerships locally in a number of countries. The reality is that there's 2 core markets today where there's generic competition is, China and India. In the U.S. and Brazil, FMC still remains the only registered source of the active ingredient. It's either made by us or licensed by us in those 2 markets, and we continue to defend and continue to have intermediates and manufacturing process patents that are quite enforceable in the U.S. and Brazil, a little more challenging in India and China, but not in U.S. in Brazil, where we continue to have very strong success in protecting those positions. But you're right. It's -- the other piece of it is we're not the only player marketing diamide products and haven't been for a long time. So the diamides is a classic chemistry and insecticides have a significant share, but it's still a tremendous amount of addressable market. So for those who want to come in with a less differentiated low-cost me-too product, there's room to grow, around where there are a number of established brands, all either sourced from or licensed by FMC that are continuing to -- players who are thoughtful and continuing to think about how you manage value in a maturing category.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#33

We got to skip, pretty much had my question. But what would -- just to leave the investment community just with, obviously, a lot has been going on, we're all anxious to hear from both you and Pierre will have to say in the coming months. But what would be the one thing you think people are missing right now? Obviously, everybody is so acutely focused on the inventory dynamics. But what do you think has actually been missed from the FMC story that you'd like to articulate here today?

Andrew Sandifer

executive
#34

Look, again, I'll reiterate. I think we're in a market that is moving from correction to recovery, and I think people are missing how well prepared FMC is to take advantage of that recovery. We've done the hard work with the restructuring, with adjusting our operating expense with, adjusting our footprint. We have a tremendous technology pipeline, both diamides and new active ingredients that we're bringing fundamental new chemistry and new technology to market. It really do impact '25, '26, '27 and beyond. Now just these 4 new active ingredients you are talking about earlier, it's $2 billion in revenue by 2033. This is not trivial. And these are very differentiated, new mode of action, fundamental new technology for our customers to benefit from. So that preparedness to accelerate and to really take advantage of a stabilization, normalization, why don't we use that word, since we love the word normal today, that return to whatever normal might be or to better, if not normal conditions, we are well prepared to accelerate into that. I think we have the right product portfolio, and we have a management team that is dead set committed to driving improvement in the business.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#35

Thank you so much for joining us here today, once again, thank you for the support.

Andrew Sandifer

executive
#36

Great. Thanks for having us.

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