Foresight Environmental Infrastructure Limited (FGEN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Edmond Warner
executiveSo it's a great turnout today. I guess it says as much about what's going on in British politics as it does about FGEN, but we're delighted you're here to escape screens and newswires. So thank you for joining us. We're delighted you're here. And this Capital Markets Day is a deliberate and very important moment for FGEN. It's an opportunity for us to step back from our quarterly numbers and to look more deeply at our strategy 1 year on. And most importantly, to hear directly from the management teams who are running the businesses that sit behind the growth elements in our portfolio. This is about seeing real progress on the ground, not just reading our admittedly very nice glossy reports. And many of you will remember that last June, following a thorough and disciplined strategic review, the Board set a clear course for FGEN. We are committed to more proactive portfolio management and to a refocused investment strategy that's centered firmly on environmental infrastructure. That includes both stable income-generating assets and the delivery of capital growth through our growth assets, which is what we're hearing about today. Alongside that, we reaffirmed our long-standing commitment to a progressive dividend, fully covered by portfolio cash flows. And I must say, our dividend, I'm sure when you look at it relative to the peer group, is very generously covered. I want to be clear at the outset today, this strategy is not in flux. You haven't come here to hear a new strategy. It's being executed. We believe it's got strong and growing momentum, which is what you're going to hear about. We're also, though, very conscious of the wider context in which we're operating, not just the political context. This has been a difficult time for the investment trust sector as a whole. We haven't been immune to that. The discount to NAV that we are seeing on our shares is a sector-wide issue. And certainly, in our view, doesn't reflect the quality or the resilience of FGEN's underlying assets. But we do take the discount extremely seriously. We're not complacent. And one of the intended outcomes of today is that we leave you with a clear understanding and confidence in FGEN as a differentiated, high-quality investment, one combining a strong well-covered yield with meaningful long-term growth potential. So on to the real focus of today, the growth assets themselves. These assets were a significant opportunity for FGEN, a critical part of what makes this portfolio distinctive and resilient. CNG Fuels, The Glasshouse and Rjukan together represent over 15% of our portfolio today. They carry the potential for material NAV uplift as they mature towards exit. Importantly, each has now passed a major operational milestone. CNG Fuels is scaling rapidly. It was already Europe's largest supplier of 100% renewable biomethane to the transport sector. And having made a company site visit there only a few weeks ago, I can testify to the exciting prospects for the company, which you're going to hear about. Rjukan is now harvesting trouts on a regular basis. Some of that trout is in the building today, wait till later. Glass Pharms is fully operational, ramping sales to 8 of the 10 largest clinics in the U.K. Today, you're going to hear directly from the teams running each of these 3 businesses as well as the investment managers who are overseeing FGEN's investment in them. Differentiation really matters, particularly in a sector where many funds are heavily concentrated in wind, solar and batteries and where government subsidy and tax policy continues to evolve at pace. FGEN's diversification across renewable generation, wider energy infrastructure and sustainable resource management, combined with the upside from our 3 growth assets is deliberate. It's a genuine differentiator and one we believe positions the company well through different market cycles. So the long-term tailwinds behind the strategy are structural. The energy transition is not a passing theme. The scale of investment required to meet decarbonization targets is enormous, and recent geopolitical events have only reinforced that energy security is as vital as ever. Environmental infrastructure represents one of the most significant investment opportunities of our time, and FGEN's broad investment mandate gives it the flexibility to capitalize across the full breadth of that opportunity set. Now let me finish by reinforcing one final point. We, the Board, are fully aligned with shareholders. That alignment was strengthened further by the fee structure changes announced in October, which directly linked Foresight's remuneration to progress on narrowing the discount. As you will hear throughout today's presentations, the Board and Investment Managers' objective is clear: to deliver an 8% to 10% NAV total return per annum organically and without reliance on equity fundraising. I'm now going to hand you over to Charlie Wright, who's going to take you through the day's agenda and start the proceedings, and I'll be available for any questions on the company as a whole at the back end of the afternoon. Thanks very much.
Charlie Wright
executiveSo thanks very much, Ed, and a very warm welcome from me and all of the Foresight team as well. It's great to see so many of you here today with us on our second Capital Markets Day. I'll be taking you through the first section of the presentation today. And then alongside Ed Mountney, we will be handing over to the management teams of CNG and the Glasshouse to take you through those assets in detail. The senior management team from Rjukan are unable to be here with us in person today, having previously joined at our last Capital Markets Day in 2022, but we've got an introductory video from the CEO at Rjukan, which I hope you will find helpful. For scheduling this afternoon, we'll have a break in between the growth asset presentations at around 3:30, and then we'll aim to wrap things up at around 5:00-ish or shortly after when we hope you can stay on for some drinks and some Rjukan trial canapes. Right. So before we get into the detail, I just want to set out why we are here today and what we want you to take away from this Capital Markets Day. So last year, as Ed alluded to, FGEN set out an updated clear and refocused strategy. And 1 year on, we want to emphasize the progress we have made in executing against that strategy. Now as you'll hear, the operational portfolio continues to deliver what investors expect from FGEN. It generates resilient cash flows. It supports a progressive dividend, and it gives the company a stable base from which to operate. And more than that, you'll see that FGEN is not simply a collection of renewable power assets, but a differentiated and diversified environmental infrastructure company. And our presentation will make clear that the growth assets now represent a meaningful part of that value creation strategy. CNG Fuels, Rjukan and Glass Pharms are no longer just early-stage ideas or construction projects. They are operational businesses and assets that are moving through ramp-up and towards value realization. So the purpose of today is to connect the dots and bring the stories behind the assets to life. Firstly, why FGEN is differentiated; secondly, why the growth assets matter, what progress has been made and what still needs to happen; and thirdly, how that translates into cash flow, NAV growth and potential capital recycling over time. And that final point is important. We are not asking investors to rely on new equity issuance to create growth. The strategy is to convert operational progress into cash flow, NAV growth and strategic flexibility using the existing portfolio to create a self-sustaining platform for tomorrow. Now this is the simplest expression of what FGEN is designed to do. We are here to deliver long-term predictable income and opportunities for capital growth. And at its heart, FGEN remains an infrastructure-based proposition. That means we prioritize the characteristics you would expect from high-quality infrastructure assets, diversification, contracted revenues, inflation linkage, performance resilience and essential services. And the way we do that is through 3 pillars of investment. The first is renewable energy generation. That remains the bedrock of the portfolio at 72% of portfolio value and includes wind, solar, anaerobic digestion, biomass, energy from waste and hydro. It is deliberately diversified across different generation profiles, different forms of resource and different revenue frameworks. The second pillar is other energy infrastructure at 11% of portfolio value. These are assets that support the energy transition, but do not necessarily generate power themselves. And that includes energy storage and our clean transport platform, CNG Fuels. And the third pillar is sustainable resource management at 17% of portfolio value. That includes waste collection and processing, water management and our controlled environment assets, which are Rjukan and the Glasshouse. Now the key point is that these pillars are not just thematic labels. They create a distinct portfolio that is less exposed to any single risk factor, whether that is weather resource, power prices, subsidy regimes, feedstock risk or a single customer market. And that is a real differentiator versus funds that are more narrowly exposed to power generation. Now this is how the assets considered in our investment approach have evolved since IPO. This is not a precise tracking of FGEN's investment activity over the years, but it does follow the general trajectory. And the purpose is to show that evolution driven by value and also social, economic and political tailwinds. And we have used Foresight's unique investment track record in environmental infrastructure to make a deliberate and carefully thought through strategic response to where we see the best risk-adjusted opportunities in a gradually shifting landscape. And at launch, the obvious opportunity was core renewables. The U.K. was in the middle of a major build-out of wind and solar supported by attractive subsidy frameworks. Those assets remain important to FGEN and continue to provide a significant part of the cash generation in the portfolio. But as competition increased, returns in wind and solar compressed. And so we moved into bioenergy, notably anaerobic digestion. And that has been a highly successful part of the portfolio, bringing baseload generation and further diversification away from weather-driven generation. From there, we identified a compelling opportunity to expand into other energy infrastructure and sustainable resource management. That's where assets like CNG, Rjukan and the Glasshouse come in. They are infrastructure or asset-backed businesses responding to social, economic and political tailwinds, decarbonization, energy security, sustainable food production, resource efficiency and cleaner transport. So when we say the portfolio evolves with the market opportunity, what we mean is that FGEN has the flexibility to follow value and is able to do so because of the deep and experienced team behind it at Foresight, who has experience managing over GBP 13 billion of assets under management. And that flexibility for FGEN is especially important in a market where a narrow focus on one technology can leave investors exposed to concentrated revenue, regulatory and valuation risk. And this is where the difference between FGEN and the core renewables funds becomes even clearer. So in the left-hand column, FGEN is shown as an environmental infrastructure company. The portfolio includes projects, operating businesses and growth assets diversified across energy generation, enabling infrastructure, waste and sustainable industries. Revenues come from power and gas, but also from multiple subsea and certificate frameworks and nonenergy sources. And that matters because it reduces reliance on power price assumptions. Power prices are, of course, still relevant to FGEN, but they are not the only driver. The portfolio also has exposure to gas prices, rocks, fits, RHI, RGGOs, RTFCs, fuel volumes and fish sales and other nonpower revenues. And that is a very different revenue set to a portfolio dominated by wind and solar power generation. And the same point applies to risk. FGEN is diversified by technology, regulatory framework, counterparty and end market. That does not remove risk, but it diversifies risk, so we are less exposed to singular changes. And it gives us more operational levers to manage the portfolio actively. And that final line on the slide, if you can all see it, is important, management and capital allocation. So FGEN is not a passive aggregation of assets. We actively manage projects and businesses, reinvest selectively where we see value and recycle capital where that is the best outcome for shareholders. And that is central to the medium strategy we will come back to at the end of today. So here, we look at progress over the last 12 months since our strategic update in June 2025. Now that strategic update was an important moment because it gives a clear articulation of where we think the company can create value in the current market. And we were explicit that the growth assets are a meaningful part of that strategy and that the company has a route to organic growth even in a market where equity issuance isn't available. The Board remains focused on serving shareholders through 3 things: first, proactive management of the existing portfolio; second, an investment strategy that prioritizes the core portfolio of environmental infrastructure; and third, continuation of the progressive dividend alongside delivery of capital growth. And we think the important point is that this strategy is starting to show through in the share price performance relative to the peer group as well as in the underlying asset performance. We are by no means fed and complacent, and there is still a lot of work to be done, and I would not overstate a 1-year relative performance chart. Share prices obviously move around. But the broader point is that we hope that investors are beginning to recognize that FGEN is structurally different from a conventional renewables fund and that diversification and active capital allocation are valuable in a more volatile market. And this ultimately pulls the strategy together. So on the left, you can see the established operational part of the FGEN portfolio that represents 82% of portfolio value. And it is this part of the portfolio that is providing the cash generation behind the dividend. Now we continue to expect dividend cover of around 1.2 to 1.3x from that operational base alongside the progressive dividend, and that is a crucial point. The dividend is not dependent on the growth assets suddenly delivering cash tomorrow. The dividend is supported by the established operational portfolio. So renewable energy generation, AD, biomass, concessions, storage and other yielding assets. And on the right, you can see how the growth assets sit within portfolio construction with the Glasshouse, CNG Fuels and Rjukan representing about 18% of the portfolio. These assets are now operational and moving through ramp-up, and they are important because they provide a different form of value creation. They are not held primarily for cash yield today. They are held because once they demonstrate operational maturity, they can create NAV growth and strategic flexibility through potential realizations. And that makes the growth story additive rather than a substitute for income support. And so the message for investors is, therefore, quite straightforward. FGEN offers a resilient income base today with a growth component that is already in the portfolio and does not require new equity to access, and that is what makes the proposition different. It is also why we are spending a substantial part of today on the CNG Rjukan and the Glasshouse. These assets have taken years of work to get to this point, and they are now moving from construction and early operational risk into ramp-up optimization and value realization. So that is the transition that we would like to communicate to you all today. So we will now move into the growth assets themselves. So for all of them, you will firstly hear a brief foresight introduction before handing over to the management teams in the case of CNG and the Glasshouse, and we will present Rjukan following the introductory video from the Rjukan CEO. And following those detailed presentations from management, we will look forward and discuss the potential buyer universe for these assets and then open up the floor to about 5 or 10 minutes Q&A on each. So first up is CNG Fuels. This is one of the clearest examples of why FGEN's mandate extends beyond renewable generation into the infrastructure needed to support decarbonization. CNG Fuels is Europe's largest supplier of 100% renewable biomethane to transport, supplying a number of the largest fleet operators in the U.K. and it sits in the part of the transport market where electrification is much harder to deploy at scale, heavy goods vehicles. FGEN first invested in December 2020 and owns 25% of the Foresight holding company alongside other Foresight funds with that holding company owning 60% of CNG Fuels. FGEN has invested GBP 29 million to date and the current valuation is GBP 47 million or 6% of total portfolio value. And at a high level, the investment case is based on 3 attractions. First, there is a strong decarbonization need for many HGV operators. Renewable biomethane is one of the only commercially viable non-fossil fuel alternatives available at scale today. Second, the addressable market is growing as larger truck formats become available, which significantly expand the pool of vehicles that can use this fuel. Third, the asset has the potential to provide both predictable income and capital growth as the station network fuel volumes and certificate business scale. And like all of our growth assets, it also adds diversification to FGEN. CNG is a net user of electricity rather than a generator, and it is exposed to transport fuel demand and certificates rather than just power generation. So it is a good example of the broader environmental infrastructure platform in practice. Now here is the investment structure, which I know Philip, the CNG CEO, will also be talking to. So I won't go into too much detail ahead of that. But there are 2 points I'd draw out here from a Foresight perspective. The first is an evolution in the investment structure. When Foresight initially invested in 2020, the investment was limited to just the station assets. And following a restructuring in 2025, the structure now reflects a more fully integrated platform covering biomethane sourcing, station ownership and also the RTFC business, which is something that Philip will cover shortly. And that is important because it means the value is not limited to just the physical stations, it captures more of the economics across the value chain. And the second point is downside protection. Foresight funds have invested through both equity and senior debt instruments and the structure benefits from a degree of downside protection through a preferred return mechanism. So overall, the structure is designed to do 2 things, which is consistent with how we try to approach these growth assets, give the platform enough flexibility to build out its market-leading position while retaining an appropriate level of investor protection. We've got a video, which I was meant to introduce. So if you just click right. [Presentation]
Charlie Wright
executiveSo with that, I will now hand over to Philip Fjeld, if I haven't [indiscernible] that completely, the Founder and CEO of CNG Fuels who will take you through the detailed presentation of the business.
Philip Fjeld
attendeeGood afternoon. It's good to see you all here, and thank you to the Foresight team for inviting us here. I mean, lovely video. Charlie did a great introduction, so we can probably go straight to Q&A after the questions. Okay. What does CNG Fuels do? I'll with you through a bit of the market first, what we do as a company, try to explain the 2 revenue stacks that we've got, which is the station part of the business and also the fact that we put biomethane through our network and generate certificates from that. But just to highlight where we've come from, we founded the business back in 2014. Baden is with me here today, Co-Founder and CFO. So if you've got tricky questions on numbers afterwards, then he will help me out. When we founded the company back in 2014, there were 0 dedicated CNG trucks on the road in the U.K. There were some buses. There were some bin lorries, but none of the large articulated semitrailers you've just seen. Now we're up at or north of 2,250 trucks going through our network exclusively. We've got almost 100% market share in the U.K. It's only Ocado as a company that we don't have. And more than 50% of all biomethane going to trucks in the U.K. goes through us. The other 50% is basically LNG. There are 2 ways of putting biomethane into trucks, but CNG is greater than -- has a bigger market share than LNG. If you look at our customer base, you've got -- we cover 8 out of the 10 largest supermarket chains in the U.K., exclusive customers of ours, parcel delivery companies, Amazon, Everi, Evri, Royal Mail, Yodel, DCD, et cetera, et cetera. So we used to have a quite consolidated and quite narrow customer base, which is supermarkets and parcel deliveries, delivery companies. That's not the case anymore, as you'll find out in a bit when we start talking about 4x2 versus 6x2 trucks. You'll understand why that's spreading. Charlie mentioned the structure under. I think what's important here is the RTFS and CNG Fuels part of the business. CNG Fuels is the stations here in the U.K., the station brand that our customers know. And then CNG Fuels as a group also owns close to 80% of RTFS, which is the largest or one of the largest buyers of unsupported biomethane across Europe. And through that, we generate Certificates. I wear 2 hats. I'm the CNG Fuels Founder and CEO, and I'm also the CEO of ReFuels, which is listed in Oslo, which is a 40% owner. And it's fair to say that Baden and I are extremely aligned with Foresight in making sure that CNG fuels as a whole becomes as valuable as possible going forward. So why are we focusing on HEVs? I'm sure a lot of you potentially have electric car at home, et cetera. The Department of Transport in the U.K. has been very focused on electrifying passenger vehicles. But if you look at the number of vehicles we've got on the road, only 1% of vehicles on the road, which is the HEVs, heavy good vehicles, make up or emit almost 20% of all greenhouse gas emissions. So if you do something about a 1%, you make a huge, outsized win with regards to GHG emissions reductions. I'm sure I will get a question afterwards, what about electric HGVs? What about hydrogen? I thought I'd -- yes, deal with that one now. Happy to take questions afterwards, by the way. If we start from the bottom, I imagine that you guys are a fleet operator in the U.K. You're the transport manager for supermarket chain or one of the other large fleet operators, and you need to decarbonize. If you start from the bottom, there used to be a lot of talk about how hydrogen, green hydrogen and the energy vector of the green hydrogen is, was going to be -- takeover was going to be popular within -- particularly for trucks, that's not happening. We do not see that happening anytime soon and at least over the next couple of decades. I'd probably say forever, but let's leave it at that. It's not happening at the pace that anyone thought or most people thought it would be apart from us, would happen a couple of years ago. Then we go to electricity, so BEVs, so electric HEVs. Yes, that is playing a role in the van space and in the smaller truck space. When it comes to your long-haul heavy-duty trucks, that is decades away, the way we see it today as mass adoption. Then you're left to 2 alternatives. It's HVO biodiesel, which is 100% biodiesel. The problem with that is there is not a lot of it and it's becoming very expensive to get hold of. So that basically leaves you with biomethane. And you would expect me to put biomethane on top. But if you took our 20 largest customers and you ask them, what are the alternatives, they would basically remove those 3 and you're left with that one. And that's why we've got the growth that we're excited about going forward. So what are the benefits? One is you immediately remove 80% to 90% greenhouse gas emissions compared to diesel. We can go negative also if you source biomethane from typically ammonia feedstock. However, as our customers tell us, the haulage sector has a very, very narrow margins, 3% to 5% profit margins. There have been decades spent in fine-tuning that sector. So therefore, as they say, we can't afford to go green and lose money. So if you look at a typical fuel cost, this is the last 3 years, you see that diesel, HVO in the middle and CNG on the right, not only do you get to go green, you also get to save money. However, the truck is slightly more expensive, about GBP 25,000 more to buy, there or thereabouts. So you're starting in the red when you get the keys to the truck. But the fuel is cheaper on average mile, about 100,000 miles a year, you typically keep it for 5 years. You've got very strong cash-on-cash payback periods, which again is why we're seeing the adoption rates that we're seeing for CNG, and we're not seeing the same, as an example, for BEVs or for electric trucks. So we often get the question, and some of you may or may not be -- know a bit about the biofuel markets in general, biodiesel, bioethanol, et cetera, et cetera. And one of the questions we often get is, Philip, is there enough biomethane out there? Is there enough feedstock to produce the biomethane that you need for the growth ahead? The answer is yes. Once again, I don't know how much you guys focus on what's going on in the biomethane rollout space across Europe, not just in the U.K. but we are now in the midst of, I would say, a mega trend across Europe, where there is after 1-year-old figure, we reckon the number now is between EUR 30 billion to EUR 40 billion that we'll go with what's been published. So about EUR 30 billion is being plowed into new biomethane production over the next 5 years. And as I say, that figure is probably conservative at this point in time. So we do not see anytime soon a shortage of biomethane that we can source and continue to fuel our growth going forward. So where have we come from as a company? We founded in 2014. And as founders, you need to be hopelessly naive. If not, you wouldn't start anything, let's be honest. So we agreed on a business plan, Baden and I, and we reckon that we would be where we are today in 2020. Clearly, we were out by about 6 years. So we started out with 0 trucks in 2014. And then we got to, I think the actual number is like 300 and something early 2020, which probably corrects on that graph. And today, we are not that far away from being 10x that. So it takes time to build a new industry, it takes time to build a company. It takes time to convince fleets to move away from a fuel like diesel, which they've been using for 40, 50 years over to something new. Majority of our customers, we've probably been working with for somewhere between 3 to 7 years before they actually start adopting CNG trucks versus diesel, which is why you're seeing the growth we've got today. If you then look at where we are today, we're cash generative and we're fast growing. Now we need to talk about the financial years here on the right because clearly, we haven't released. The financial year just closed. So the financial year looking at the FY '25 is clearly at the end of March and then the one prior. And then you can see we've gone from being 2 years back, 2 financial years back, we were heavily in minus. Last year, we were plus, and we're guiding this year that we will more than double that for this year with then continued growth ahead. So we've finally gotten to a place where we've got mass adoption and where we're really starting to see scale benefits kick in from all the investments that have been made. You saw the video with regards to what a station looks like. This is Warrington, the M62. If you go to the west, you go to Liverpool and the right, you go to Manchester. These are unmanned facilities. We don't [indiscernible] and coffees and hot dogs, et cetera. We don't have toilets on sites. These are very efficient energy dispensing facilities. We are not aware and they don't exist actually, any more efficient ways of putting a green energy vector into a truck than what you see there. They're the biggest in Europe and probably some of the biggest in the world. There might be some larger ones in China and a handful in North America. But these are unique in the European context. And once you get to the scale we're at now, they're very, very efficient and highly cash generative. So I'm going to take 2 minutes just to run you through some definitions when it comes to trucks. Now you'll probably -- we talk more about trucks now than you ever wanted to be talked about trucks, but it's important to understand our business case and the growth ahead. So let's start with definitions. Technically, an HGV heavy goods vehicle is anything above 3.5 tonnes. So that is basically a slightly larger Amazon delivery vehicle that you will see at home. That is not our market. That is not our key market. Our core market is essentially the 2 on the right, 4x2 and 6x2, but I'll just touch upon this one slightly. The rigid market goes from basically anything above 18 tonnes up to 26 tonnes. When we founded the company, we did not think this was going to be a market where we saw growth. We honestly thought that was going to be the market that went electric and would never go to biofuels. That's not correct. And we've been proven wrong in that account. Some of these do really high mileage, 100,000 miles a year. You just can't do that on batteries. You can't do that with charge times, et cetera, et cetera. So we are seeing surprisingly strong growth, surprisingly strong interest from the likes of Instarmac to buy CNG rigid trucks, which is a nice bonus. But that is not our core market, just so we're clear. Our core market is over here. So we call this articulated trucks. It's a tractor and trailer combination. A 4x2 has 1 rear axle, a 6x2 has 2 rear axles. That one can go up to a total combination weight, which is tractor trailer and payload of 44 tonnes and a typical 4x2 can go as high up as 40 tonnes, but usually goes only up to 38 tonnes. Now why am I laboring this point? Because we founded the company in 2014. And up until basically only 2 years ago, we were constrained by the fact that the truck manufacturers were only really building this type of truck unit. That's why we've now got just north of 10% market share, meaning all 4x 2s in the U.K., which is close to 22,000, about 10% of those are CNG and go exclusively through our network. If you look at the 6x2s, those were really only launched by the manufacturers about 2 years ago, and then they have to demo, et cetera, et cetera. We've only got about 160 of those in the road, growing rapidly, by the way. So our market share here is rather pathetic at only 0.1%. That is what really excites us because when we get really going in penetrating that market, we have a 6x larger market plus than the 4x2 market. And once we get growing in that market, our growth will hopefully be much stronger than it has been for the last couple of years. The backdrop when it comes to the U.K. haulage sector is that it has been a shrinking market for the last 3 years. Now don't get alarmed by that. These markets are cyclical. There are some years where people order or haulage companies order too many trucks and then you go through a contraction and so on and so forth. Now we've got the Iran situation going on, which who knows what that does to the economy through this year, but the industry was expecting that 2026 would be the year when most fleets will start -- we need to start replacing trucks. That said, even in a market where you can see that the overall number of new trucks on the road has gone down, new registrations have gone down, we've been growing. Now that is -- the majority of that growth has come from the 4x2 market. Unfortunately, not much from the 6x2 market, but that's the one that you will see growing much faster, relatively speaking, than the 4x2 market over the coming years. So a typical truck in the U.K. is replaced there or thereabouts or has a life expectancy of about 10 years. If you look just over the next 10 years ahead, we are expecting more than 100,000 trucks to be replaced. And more importantly, you don't make up your mind as to what type of fuel they're going to run on, what type of truck technology you're going to run on before a week or 2 or 3 or 4 before you have to order them. And a typical order -- sorry, lead time for a truck order is 4 to 6 months. So we've got a huge fleet replacement program that has to happen over the next 10 years, which is something that we're really excited by. Now we've today got 16 grid-connected stations, and we've soon got 12 so-called mobile refueling stations in operation. Now we've started to get a backbone that covers the U.K. We've got 2 up in Scotland. We've got a second one in Wales, in construction, et cetera, et cetera. But we could have between 50 to 100 stations, and we would still need more. So this is by any stretch of the imagination, a saturated market. We could be growing for the next 10 years and still need more stations to be developed. Now we have an ambition that by the end of 2028, we will have 9 new high-capacity stations either in operation or under construction and that we will have grown our mobile refueling station business considerably. This is particularly important for the 6x2 truck adoption. Why? Because the station network we've got today will service a number of our customers well, yes. But the 6x2 market is so much larger that, that will allow us to tap into customers who don't run 4x2s. And in order to do that, we will need more stations going forward. So that was talking a lot about the station vertical and the truck vertical of revenues. Now I'm just going to run you through briefly what we do with regards to the biomethane side of things, certificates generation and the cash flows that we generate from that. In the U.K., we operate under a policy called the RTFO, renewable transport fuel obligation. That is a DfT policy that was put in place in 2008. It's a so-called blending obligation, meaning that a certain amount of fuel that is dispensed into vehicles -- liquid fuels, by the way, put into vehicles in the U.K. has to be renewable. This here shows that the renewable percentage steps up over time. For every kilogram of biomethane that we source and put into trucks, we are awarded certificates. Because it's a gaseous fuel and not a liquid fuel, we're not an obligated party, but we can generate certificates and then the likes of the Shells and the BPs and the ESOs of the world who do indeed supply liquid fuels in this country can then use those certificates to comply with this blending obligation. And by the way, this is not a subsidy, very important to understand. The subsidies very often get tinkered with and not always in a positive way. The market-based mechanism has always been, will always be, doesn't have an end date and it's on the polluter pays principle. So we generate 3.8 certificates per kilogram. That certificate price is set by the market. The market is volatile, has been volatile, will always be volatile. And that's -- we actually see that as a good thing. I'd rather take volatility any day of the week from a market-based mechanism than knowing that you have a subsidy that is much more prone to being fiddled with either by treasury or by eager politicians and ministers. So if you look at the average price, it has typically been around 25p per [indiscernible]. We have the ability to source biomethane and sell certificates forward, and we typically have a policy where we sell and forward sell certificates for an 18- to 24-month period going forward. What we expect to see going forward is for the overall biofuel market across Europe to tighten. Why? Because the EU is now in the midst of implementing renewable energy directive #3. That will, by definition, tighten the biofuel market and should -- I'm not saying volatility will go away, but should, over time, also provide more upward buoyancy, if you want, rather than downward pressure on [indiscernible] prices over time. So if we then look at where we are, when we in April of last year, we did -- we introduced a new structure, which Charlie mentioned briefly, we were asked, okay, so what could this look like in 2030? This is not guidance. This is just us giving a snapshot as to what a sensible growth trajectory on our end could look like. If you assume that we look at an average 25% growth between now and 2030, which would take us up to 8,000 trucks on the road. Now we're at 2,250 today. You might say, well, still have 8,000 in 2030, that's clearly not feasible. Absolutely not. We could easily hit that. Why? Because once the 6x2 kicks into and adoption of the 6x2 kicks into gear, that is not beyond the stretch of the imagination to get there. What we've done over here is we split out and you see it pretty much 50-50, not quite, but not far off, revenue generation from stations and revenue and profitability from certificates. And there, we basically said by 2030, once again, it's not beyond -- you don't have to be terribly optimistic to see that we could get to north of GBP 100 million in EBITDA generation by 2030. As of today, if you were to track a line down here, we're probably pretty much on track to be able to achieve that. So in summary, before I think this Q&A afterwards, we're expecting to grow in this financial year, 15% to 20%, driven by fleet expansion of both 4x2 and 6x2. I know I've spoken a lot about the 6x2s. That doesn't mean that we don't expect to see growth in the 4x2s, absolutely. But what really gets us excited is to really start to eat into the 6x2 market that we've been not been able to participate in for a while. We're looking to double the refueling capacity, which means that we could go up to theoretically 20,000 trucks per annum by the end of 2028. And then if you look at EBITDA for the financial year just closed, we have guided on GBP 13 million to GBP 15 million, which is a tidy 2x and a bit up from what we did the prior year.
Charlie Wright
executiveOkay. Well, thank you very much, Philip. We will come back to some questions very shortly. But just before we do, we just thought we'd take a couple of minutes to look ahead to the potential buyer universe. So we have recently mandated independent analysis from a third party that investigates the potential buyer universe for the growth assets as well as valuation metrics within these sectors. So this is not the initiation of a sales process. The point here is to simply show that if CNG continues to demonstrate scale, utilization and cash generation, there are several credible buyer groups that would have strategic reasons to engage. So working through them, we have strategic players and traders who would be interested because CNG fits into vertically integrated biomethane production and trading value chains. We expect forecourt operators to see it as a way of diversifying beyond traditional fuels into lower carbon alternatives. Mid-market and potentially large-cap infrastructure funds would view it as a core plus decarbonization platform, supported by the broader energy transition angle. And EV charging companies would have interest in the strategic HGV locations and the optionality that those locations could provide over time. So the key message is that buyer appetite will be driven by evidence. Buyers will want to see a scalable platform, growing volumes, strong customer relationships and a credible view of the future role of biomethane in HEV transport, and that is why the operational ramp-up matters. Right, so with that, thank you, Philip. I hope you'll find that helpful. I will now pass over to Ed Mountney, who will take you through Rjukan.
Edward Mountney
executiveThanks, Charlie. And thanks, Philip. Very comprehensive but interesting presentation. And I think the level of questions at the end clearly shows the engagement that we get on some of these assets. So it's really encouraging and keep firing them matters throughout the day and afterwards as well. So as Charlie said, I will take you through the few slides we've got on Rjukan, so I can give you the update on that. As you know, Rjukan is our land-based Norwegian aquaculture facility. So we've been building that over the past few years. It's now fully operational, and it is starting to build a reputation as a supplier of high-quality fresh trout to international markets. So this asset is the essential infrastructure needed to support more sustainable food production. Global demand for high-quality protein continues to grow, while conventional seafood production faces environmental and regulatory challenges. Land-based aquaculture is a technology-driven response to those pressures. It offers controlled production, high biosecurity, reduced pollution risk and all year-round production. And that's the strategic rationale for Rjukan. So of course, I started looking at Rjukan back in 2021. And at that point, it became clear that despite global recognition, the food production is one of the major sectors that needs decarbonizing. There was a clear gap between, on the one side, project developers that have high sustainability visions and are equipped with the proven technologies needed to achieve it. And then on the other side, institutional investors that share that vision but are understandably asking questions about financial and commercial viability. So for every year, we work pretty intensively to elevate the project to an investable and bankable state to help fill that gap between an overall desire to decarbonize a mature industry and making something into an attractive investment opportunity. So that included application of project structuring, financing and risk management experience to build a bankable investment case designed to not only provide an attractive risk-adjusted return, but also to encourage additional capital into the sector to support its growth. Fast-forward to now, Rjukan is fully operational. So the question today is not whether the facility can be built, it has been built. The question is how quickly it can ramp up production and demonstrate consistent volumes and pricing. So the structure itself is deliberately straightforward for FGEN. Alongside another Foresight managed fund, it holds controlling stake in the project company, meaning Foresight funds retain majority ownership and control. The structure uses preferred equity instruments with an emphasis on downside protection and alignment of incentives between Foresight, the developer and minority shareholders. Again, that's consistent with our approach to growth assets. We want exposure to the upside created by operational maturity, but we also want the structure to reflect the profile of an asset that's moved through construction and is now in early ramp-up stage. That's important because early-stage operational assets can create meaningful value upside, but only if governance, incentives and capital structures are all aligned. So we have control, we have specialist operating partners, and we have a structure that's designed to support the asset through its ramp-up. As you'd expect, the management team on the ground, they clearly have extensive experience in aquaculture. That's been a major industry in Norway for generations. I won't go through everyone's credentials here, but the key point is that Rjukan is not a project being managed from a spreadsheet. It's an operating business that requires a different set of capabilities, including things like aquaculture operations, biological performance, water control and feeding regimes. Simon Martinsen there on the left, he leads the business as CEO with Geir Inge, the farm manager, his right-hand man and a wider team of around 80 people on the ground behind them. And management there are now focused on the operational disciplines that determine value. So that's stable biomass growth, oxygen management, water treatment, harvest planning. And that's really the lens through which to view the rest of this section because the next phase of value creation is operational execution. And rather than just listening to me talk about the facility from London, we wanted to let you hear directly from the people on the ground. So we do have a short video from Simon, which hopefully gives a sense of the scale of the facility, the progress made since construction was complete and the areas of focus for Rjukan if it ramps up. [Presentation]
Edward Mountney
executiveSo hopefully, from watching that, you can get a feel for -- it's a pretty spectacular place. I think we'd love to have everyone out there and do site visits, but it's not the easiest one to get people across these. So the next best thing is a video on screen. Like we said earlier, we've got some travel here. I can't guarantee it will look like a bit on the screen there, the fine dining. We have a catering company here, but let's be realistic. But anyway, I hope the reason -- sorry, the reason I think that video really helps is because it moves the discussion away from concept and into execution. This is a facility producing fish and selling fish. It's crossed an important line from construction into operations and the video, I think, really brings that message home. So Rjukan is not just a building in some fish tanks. It's a full operating system with specialist counterparties right across the value chain. So here, we look at how the project is structured and who the key counterparties are. So construction was delivered by Totalbetong and Eyvi. SPV Management sits with Hima. Eggs are supplied from a company with Osland, feed comes from Skretting and the water supply itself comes from mountain-fed aquifers. And last but not least, the route to market is through a company called Seafood Brands. Why does all that matter today? Well, because for a land-based aquaculture facility, value is created by the interaction of multiple systems. You need reliable water supply. You need the technology to perform. You need trained operators and you need a credible sales route into the market. So when we talk about ramp-up, we're not just talking about increasing volumes, we are talking about optimizing the full value chain. That's what's going to turn a completed facility into a cash-generative business. Thinking about how this project fits into the broader market. Salmon is a resource-efficient source of high-quality protein and demand is increasingly being met by aquaculture rather than capture fisheries or things being caught in the wild. Supply is forecast to grow at around 3% per annum versus demand that's set to grow at around 7%. So the supply-demand backdrop is really supportive. But a key point to note is that trout is already an established market. We're not trying to create demand for a novel product. The product is known, the end market exists, and there's an established route to consumers. And on top of that, the environmental context is changing. Conventional sea-based farming can create negative environmental impacts and is subject to increasingly strict regulation. Buyers are looking for traceable and reliable alternatives. Land-based aquaculture addresses some of those pressures. It offers controlled production, high biosecurity, reduced pollution risk and crucially all year-round production. So like I said earlier, that's the strategic rationale for Rjukan. The asset is not just trying to produce fish, it's trying to produce a consistent, traceable, high-quality product in a way that's more controlled and more sustainable than conventional production methods. And of course, we recognize that market demand alone doesn't create value. Value comes from producing reliably at target volumes at the right size and quality and at a cost base that supports attractive margins. And that's where the next few slides focus. So you saw in the video earlier, the facility. This is a shot of the facility as well, but an artistic impression of the roof off, just to give you an impression for what's going on inside. It has a design capacity of 8,000 tonnes of trout. That's equivalent to about 22 million dinners and the facility is a complete end-to-end process. So it covers the full production cycle from egg right the way through to harvest. The major components are shown on this slide, so starting at the hatchery where the eggs come in. The fish are then transported through increasingly large grow-out tanks as the fish themselves grow in size before coming into the final harvest phases. Some alternative models are different to this. They may focus only on 1 or 2 parts of this cycle, but the reason the full cycle capability matters is control. The more of the production cycle that you control, the more you can manage, biosecurity, growth conditions, quality and timing of harvest. Scale also matters. A facility of this size is designed to be a commercial production asset, but it won't reach full output immediately because biology and process optimization take time. Fish need to move through the cycle, systems need to be calibrated and operating teams need to build repeatability. So the facility is built for scale, but the route to value is a phased ramp-up. And in large part, that's because a trout doesn't become a 4- to 5-kilogram fish overnight. The growth cycle takes around 18 to 24 months as fish move through eggs, smolt, grow-out and then readiness for sale. So following the first harvest in July of last year, Batch 1 completed a full production cycle in the lower end of that range that I just mentioned at around 18 months, and that was an important proof point for us. It demonstrated that the facility can take fish all the way through the cycle and sell products into the market. The commercial objective is now to reach consistent weekly production of trout above 4 kilograms, because put simply, larger fish tend to attract higher prices. That's an important distinction versus many infrastructure assets. So if you take a solar farm, once it's commissioned, the revenue profile starts almost immediately, although obviously remains subject to the sunshine. With Rjukan, there's a biological ramp-up. The asset needs enough biomass in the tanks at the right stages of maturity to support regular weekly harvests. That means there's a lag between physical construction and steady-state economics. But when the tanks are full and harvests are regular, there should be greater forward-looking revenue visibility than an intermittent renewable generator. So the task is now moving from first harvest to consistent production, consistent sizing and repeatable sales. I said earlier, this is a technology-driven response to market and environmental demands, and that's really down to the recirculating aquaculture system or RAS technology behind the facility. So in simple terms, a land-based fish farm using RAS technology is a closed-loop, highly controlled environment where water is continually cleaned and reused. The system, you can see on the screen there, it takes in a small amount of new water, treats it, circulates it through the fish tanks and cleans it up and treats the effluent water before release. So once at steady state, more than 99% of water is recycled with fully treated and disinfected inflows and outflows. That has 2 advantages. The first is environmental. So the facility uses far less new water than alternative models and has a high degree of control over what water leaves the facility. The second is operational. A controlled environment allows management to optimize water quality, oxygen levels, temperature, feeding and biosecurity. The technology itself is based on relatively simple components, but control only creates value if systems are managed properly. That's why operational discipline matters so much. So the risk has shifted. During construction, the question was whether the facility could be delivered. Now the question is whether the team can operate the system consistently, optimize biological performance, convert that into predictable volumes and margins. Once the fish are produced, the next question is, how are they sold? So Rjukan sells through a group called Seafood Brands, which acts as the external sales company and sells the product into the open market. Trout is an established commodity, but pricing isn't automatic. Consistent quality and reliable supply are critical to achieving the best pricing. That's where land-based production can have a real advantage because the environment is controlled, the facility can produce all year round without the same seasonal fluctuations that can affect more conventional production. The customer base is diverse. It balances wholesale, value-add processors and direct fine dining channels. And over time, the objective is to build established supply relationships and longer-term contracts with an opportunity to target premium pricing for a premium product. But again, that depends on evidence. Buyers need consistency in size, quality, timing and volumes. It's not just about moving tons. It's about establishing credibility with buyers and building repeat purchase behavior. At the last half year results, we said the early production was expected to be sold into the commodity market until a steady state is proven, with management then anticipating premium pricing. That's the right sequence, prove volume and consistency first, then optimize pricing. So the route to market is therefore a key part of value creation for us. As I said earlier, growing commenced last year, first harvest in July '25. And as at March '26, we sold 362,000 fish at an average of 3.3 kilograms. So that's over 1,000 tonnes of fish and a big operational milestone. The facility is producing, harvesting and selling. But the near-term focus remains on ramp-up. To get towards that design capacity of 8,000 tonnes, the management are focusing on refining several critical systems over the year ahead. That includes transportation, feeding and oxygen; in other words, looking at the key factors that determine biological performance and cost efficiency. The objective is stable production and regular weekly harvests with consistent sizing to maximize sales and pricing. So the message here from us is balanced today. We have clear evidence of progress, first harvest, operational data and an established route to market. But the value case is still dependent on ramp-up discipline over the next phase. Volumes are expected to gradually increase over the next 3 years, with the facility reaching steady state by the end of 2028 and target revenues of around EUR 60 million to EUR 70 million. As we saw earlier, the ramp-up is gradual because the systems are being optimized alongside ongoing fish production. You have live biomass in the system. So optimization has to be disciplined and continuous. EBITDA breakeven is expected to be around 5,000 tonnes, and that's also a key milestone, obviously. But the way that we look at it, it shifts the asset into financial self-sufficiency. And once the business moves to that point, the conversation around exit potential really changes. Interested buyers can see actual profitable operating performance rather than relying on forecasts. In terms of valuation, listed sea-based aquaculture comparables suggest EBITDA multiples of anywhere between 8x to 24x. We should be careful with listed comparables because efficiency, stage of development, technology and risk profile can vary significantly. But nonetheless, it's still a very encouraging range. And we believe that a mature land-based asset with stable operations should attract a premium versus sea-based alternatives. But what this hopefully shows is that the key value driver is not an unrealistic or heroic multiple assumption. It's the progression from first production to repeatable performance. The better the evidence on volume, feed conversion, quality and pricing, the stronger the asset becomes as a realization candidate. This is consistent with the valuation approach we've followed so far. So we moved Rjukan from cost to DCF only after the first harvest last summer, recognizing a modest valuation uplift from cost. That's the discipline. Value follows evidence, not aspiration. And we'll remain measured in how value is recognized going forward. We want to reflect progress, as it's evident, but the direction of travel is positive. Lastly, here, we've got a slide on buyer universe, just like Charlie covered on CNG. And what we see is that while the buyer pool is still evolving, we believe there are a number of credible and increasingly relevant routes to exit. Strategic aquaculture players, both land-based and sea-based, have traditionally been the dominant acquirers in core aquaculture grow-out. Trout is a smaller market than salmon, but that can make it an attractive entry point for certain buyers looking for growth or diversification. Financial investors have historically been more active in aquaculture suppliers than direct farming, although there are examples of investors taking exposure to land-based grow-out. Adjacent industries and international corporates may also be relevant, particularly where they're focused on vertical integration, food security, cross-border expansion or differentiated premium protein supply. So the conclusion on Rjukan is straightforward. The value creation pathway is to move from early harvest to regular production from spot sales to deeper customer relationships and from forecasts to demonstrated cash flow generation. If that progression is delivered, Rjukan has the potential to become a meaningful source of capital growth FGEN. Right. So I'll now introduce the third of our growth assets. So that's the glasshouse operated by Glass Pharms. Good news this time, I'll just do the intro and then hand over to someone else, and then you can hear them talk rather than me droning on. So this investment is a great example of how FGEN's mandate allows us to originate opportunities across the 3 pillars of investment, and in this case, showing how those pillars can work together. So we first came across this opportunity while looking at ways for one of our AD facilities to make better use of surplus heat and power that it could generate above what it was able to inject through its grid connection. That led us to this opportunity, the funding of a construction of a large 2.4-hectare advanced glasshouse next door to the AD, connected by a private wire and therefore able to use and monetize that heat and power that otherwise would have been wasted. So we partnered with the excellent team at Glass Pharms to use the facility to cultivate pharmaceutical-grade cannabis-based products for medicinal use under strict Home Office license, a market that's really been growing rapidly in recent years. We invested in September 2022. Construction was completed just 1 year later, and now the business is in its operational ramp-up phase. And I'm sure those of you that managed to come to the site visit with us last year will agree that now it's built, we have a truly fantastic facility. Like with Rjukan, the business benefits from a highly controlled growing environment, but also has a clear healthcare-led demand backdrop and a structural cost advantage through access to that low-cost heat and power from the co-located AD. And that's exactly why we regard this as an infrastructure-based proposition. It has long-life physical asset base, strong operational control and supports an important supply chain. It's also effectively perpetual in nature. No reliance on government subsidies, and that gives it a resilience consistent with FGEN'S broader investment philosophy. And for those of you that don't know what 2.4 hectares look like, picture a 3.5 football pitches, 19 Olympic swimming pools or a car park with 2,000 spaces in it. Thanks, Copilot. As with the other investments that you've heard about today, we've deliberately structured this investment to balance downside protection with upside participation. The majority of our capital is deployed through a combination of senior secured lending and convertible loan notes alongside a 10% equity stake. That gives us 3 important benefits. First, the senior debt provides capital protection and contractual income, which is consistent with our core infrastructure approach. Second, the convertible loan notes give us the ability to increase equity exposure as the business derisks and value is created. And third, the direct equity holding ensures we retain board-level participation and we remain aligned with the long-term growth of the platform. So overall, this is a disciplined investment structure protected on the downside through the debt while retaining meaningful upside through conversion rights and valuation growth. And that's very much how we approach these sorts of growth opportunities across the FGEN portfolio. So lastly, before I hand over to James to take you through the business and its outlook in more detail, we've got a brief video of the facility itself. And then after that, James will do his bit and then come back and wrap up again with thoughts on buyer universe, potential exit strategies. And we'll leave some time for Q&A. [Presentation]
James Duckenfield
attendeeGood afternoon, everyone. My name is James Duckenfield. I'm the CEO of Glass Pharms. I'm going to talk to you about the product that we're providing to market, which has now helped tens of thousands of patients in the U.K. I'm going to talk to you about how we grow it and how we manage it, some of the market dynamics and our performance thus far and then tantalize you with how we're going to fulfill our potential going forward. All right. So this is the management team. We're not in pajamas. We are in surgical scrubs. We take biosecurity very importantly at the site. So actually, when we're on the site, we will change from outdoor clothes to indoor clothes to make sure that we're not bringing any plant pathogens into the facility. We're very lucky to have Adam George as our Chairman. Adam was the CFO of GW Pharmaceuticals, now Jazz Pharmaceuticals, which is the largest licensed cannabis business in the world. They sold out for around $8 billion a few years ago. I am a chemist by training. I've been in technology most of my career and somehow ended up running a cannabis business. But you'll see that this is a very technical facility. And actually, I'm loving getting back into chemistry, which there's a lot of it in this particular product. Steve is here with me today. Steve and I have worked together for about 10 years. In my previous business, we ran a group of different companies, and he's come on this journey now. And then Richard Lewis is the Managing Director who runs the facility. And for him, this is a baby greenhouse, even though it's absolutely enormous. His last glasshouse was a tomato glasshouse, which was 8.4 hectares. So an absolute whopper compared to this, albeit this is a much more sophisticated version. So this is our history to date. We set up in 2020. We had been working on a high-THC cultivation license for some time. We were the first since 1998 to get a high-THC cultivation license. The Home Office do not like giving these. It was extraordinarily difficult. There are still -- there are now 3 operators in the U.K. with a cultivation license for a commercial sale. And then we ran around the city with our license and a plan, and FGEN were kind enough to fund the business. We then went about building the facility, which was designed specifically for growing medical cannabis. And it was based on 2 years of bad growing in a low-tech glasshouse, which taught us lots of lessons on how not to do it, which has been distilled into how to do it with excellence. And then we started growing in October 2023. This month actually marks our second anniversary of supply, and you'll see what we've done in the 2 years of supply thus far. And we were the first to bring a cannabis flower to market as an unlicensed medicine in the U.K. in June 2024. Then we've got a nice milestone in February of 2026, our 100th shipment. We tend to ship our products every week on a continuous supply basis. And in fact, the whole of the cultivation process is continuous. So every day, we're planting. Every day, we're pruning. Every day, we're harvesting. Every day, we're doing processing jobs. So it's like a modern commercial bakery where you've got a bit of dough at one end, and it goes through an oven and then cools down, and it gets packed at the other end on a pretty seamless basis. And then in March this year, we were granted a patent for the facility, which means that we can benefit from Patent Box tax relief. And as you'll see, unusually for a cannabis business, we are actually making profit. This is what we are producing. I'm very sorry about the disappointing contents of the tins that we provided. They are simply mints, but they are -- it's a packaging that the medicine is dispensed in. So we have 3 different types of flower, and these are laid out in the British Pharmacopoeia. Cannabis was actually a medicine in the British Pharmacopoeia up to 1932. And then during the prohibitionist period, it was removed and returned to the British Pharmacopoeia in 2024. And it lays out these 3 types of cannabis plants: Type I, which is high THC, which is most of what we do; Type II, which is very difficult to grow. We have 2 of these products. And then Type III, which is a CBD flower with a small amount of THC, which we have one flower in that category. This is the typical patient journey. A patient will seek help for their condition. The most described ailments are around pain, anxiety, MS, a number of other conditions. But the patient seeks help. Their eligibility is then assessed. And under the guidelines, they need to have had 2 other medical interventions prior to having access to medical cannabis. They have to see a specialist physician. They can't just go to their local GP, physician on specialist register. There are a number of categories of patients where this is not a suitable medicine. So you're under 25, this is not really -- apart from particular problems like childhood epilepsy, intractable epilepsy, this can be transformative particularly, but that's a CBD product with a small amount of THC. But generally, under 25s, it should be treated with caution. Anyone with a history of drug addiction, anyone with a history of mental health, particularly psychosis, it is not the medicine for you. And like lots of other medicines, if this is mis-prescribed, it's bad news. If it's properly prescribed, it's actually a very safe drug and actually safer in many cases than the alternatives which are prescribed for pain, things like pregabalin, tramadol, the opioids that have caused an epidemic in the U.S. So a specialist physician will write the prescription. That is then typically sent to an online pharmacy who then will send it to the person's house by recorded delivery. And then on a monthly basis, they have a follow-up, and the second prescription can be either back with the initial physician or under a shared care arrangement with a GP or a prescribing pharmacist. So this is a schematic of -- you've seen how big it is, but this is -- it's a miniature to explain the situation. So we -- this is a patented design, which is incredibly energy efficient. This is the FGEN anaerobic digester that supplies us with energy. And in fact, it's a real symbiosis because we get our energy from the anaerobic digester less expensively than we could possibly buy it from the grid, but also more expensively than FGEN could sell it to the grid. So it's that -- we're sat in the middle in a place where it's really a win-win. We also benefit from the waste heat from the facility. And we use that waste heat either to heat the glasshouse during the winter, but also we send it to an ingenious contraption called an absorption chiller. And the absorption chiller will take hot water in one end and cool water in the other. And the waste heat drives a chilling cycle, which means that we can turn 12-degree water into 6-degree water. And we use that chilled water to do dehumidification. And if you look at most other cannabis cultivation facilities, they are -- on our scale, they will be consuming about 1 megawatt of power just to do dehumidification. So this is -- this really offsets the higher energy costs of operating in the U.K. And that, along with a lot of automation means that we're competitive on a global basis. We use about 40% to 45% of the energy of a comparable indoor grower. So our plants travel. So they don't just sit in the glasshouse and stay there for their entire life. They travel like a nonlinear conveyor belt. So they start here as baby plants in a spring-like environment. And then as they mature, they go into different climate chambers. There's 3 climate chambers that we run, a spring environment, which has 18 hours of lighting. They then get moved into summer where they get only 12 hours of lighting, and that triggers the flowering process. And then they move into late flower where they have very low humidity and they're under some stress, which really makes them focus on developing the flowers and improves our yield. And through optimization of this process, we -- well, we originally thought that this facility would be able to produce in this phase about 1 tonne a month. And through optimization, we now have proven that we can generate about 1.5 tonne. So it's a very efficient environment. Part of the reason that we have the plants traveling by themselves is that we don't have workers working in the glasshouse. So we treat people as vectors, which isn't very polite to the people. Perhaps like -- I suppose with the infected cruise ship that we've seen recently with the rats. We treat humans unfortunately as vectors like the rats. And so we keep them away from the plants, and the plants have to travel to the people to be worked on. And then once they've been worked on, they go through a decontamination tunnel and then back into the glasshouse. So this facility has got fanatical attention to detail around microbial control, and that allows us to produce a medical-grade product without irradiation, whereas our competitors quite often have to ship their products overseas to get irradiated, to reimport it to allow it to access the marketplace. So sustainability is something I've been personally very keen on since I was very nerdy into school competition on problems in the environment when I was 17, and it's something I've been passionate about. But I've always maintained that sustainability without it being a good business case is never going to fly with anybody. And this particular example of sustainability really makes commercial sense. It's not just some tree-hugging activity. And so this is a really synergistic relationship with FGEN, as I mentioned. Electricity is a really significant part of our overheads, at least 20% of our overheads. And therefore, we're very sensitive to electricity prices. And that's why being energy efficient is also very, very important for us. And you can see here, our -- there's a comparison between our facility versus an indoor growing. And we save huge amounts of energy on things like lighting versus an indoor grow because we get about 40% of our light for free from the sun. We are not using anywhere near the same amount on dehumidification because we're using waste heat to drive dehumidification. So it's a repeatable model, which we could put in another country and expand our capacity in the future. So the U.K. market has grown quickly, but relatively slowly compared to some other countries. Medical cannabis was legalized in November 2018. It's growing quite quickly. Patient numbers are around 100,000 now and set to double by this time next year. This chart here shows the imports. So imports -- the data is not particularly reliable, which is why it's a bit choppy. The data has come from the Home Office. But you can see, back in 2024, which is where this data is from, the 3% is all us. So we're still, I would say, at least 90% of the domestic marketplace. We're supplying 8 out of 10 of the clinics, a big -- top 10 clinics in the U.K., including Releaf, which is a very key partner for us. It's nearly all driven -- the market base in U.K. is nearly all driven by private practice, not NHS. I don't think that's going to change in the near future. But what is happening is that there are new entrants coming into this marketplace, which have no interest in cannabis as a topic, but they do see it as an adjacent space to move into with telemedicine platforms that they've already developed in areas like GLP-1 clinics, for example. So we do see this year being a very interesting year with new entrants driving growth and starting to accelerate the rate of growth rather than it starting to peter off. If you look at Canada, Canada is the most mature cannabis marketplace in the world. They're by far the biggest exporter. We have 1.7x their population. So although it seems like a very big country, there's lots of wilderness, which we don't have. And it's -- clearly, it's the patients that are consuming the product rather than anything else. So you can see, by 2016, they were approaching 150,000 patients. And what happened in 2018 is that adult use was legalized. And so you saw a reduction in volume of medical to about 10% of the overall market, but it's still about a $2.7 billion market in Canada with a much smaller population than our own. So there is a huge amount of growth potential in the U.K., albeit that we don't see legalization for recreational use anytime in the next 10 years in the U.K. So we're very focused on medical and medical only. So we're not expecting to see this down ramp. The other lessons from Canada are that over time, the format of medicine changes away from flower to other formats. So at the moment, the U.K. is about 75% flower and the remaining portion is about 50-50 between oil and vaporizers. And so this year, we are working on our own oil product and our own metered dose product so that we can diversify to more medical forms of the medicine rather than the raw form. Germany, by contrast, legalized about the same time as us and has grown much, much faster because of a much more permissive environment, including the reimbursement of medical cannabis through their healthcare system. So about 30% of medical cannabis in Germany is reimbursed. Doctors have been trained, and that has really driven growth to what we now think to be somewhere between 1 million and 1.3 million patients in Germany. So it has massively grown there with about the same population as the U.K. In Australia, they have about 40% of our population, and there are already at about 1 million patients. So where there is a more tolerant approach, and our Home Office is not particularly tolerant, there is -- more growth is seen versus a good growth that we've seen in the U.K. So we see steady growth in the U.K. As we've seen in other markets, we've got no reason to think that that growth won't continue. We see growth through new product development, which also allows us to adjust for the price pressure that we'll inevitably see as the market grows. So our new products will be higher margin than simply flower. And we're also looking at export opportunities, particularly Germany and France. France has started their process of legalization in a very, very medical way, which is great for us because that's the nature of our business. They will have the medical cannabis properly legalized by October, but they will not allow flower in its raw form. They will only allow it in a metered dose format, which was perfect timing for us because that is exactly what we're developing. They will have it reimbursed and you will have to go to a hospital to initiate your care with medical cannabis and then follow-on care through your local GP. So it won't be at all a private clinic market in France. It will be direct negotiation between the producer of the medicine and the ministry of health, which I'm sure will be a delightful negotiation. So for those of you who came to the glasshouse last year, we put some projections up. I'm very happy to say that we have performed essentially in line with our projections. And actually, we have -- for the last financial year, we've done better. So we've done better on revenue and done better on EBITDA. There are not very many cannabis companies in the world who are profitable. So I'm very proud that we've achieved it in our second year of operation. So this is how volume has grown quarter-on-quarter since we started. So really good quarter-on-quarter growth. We're expecting our profit to double again from the position from last year, and we're expecting the following year to have a similar performance. So how do we fulfill our entire -- we've got an enormous facility to fill. How are we going to do that? Well, this represents our FY 2027 budget. We see U.K. market growth filling about half of our overall capacity. We see increased market share as it becomes more difficult for importers to import products of a recreational nature into the U.K. as regulations tighten. And we also see increased market share as we bring innovative formats to market, which other companies won't have access to. And then we also see growth from international expansion, Germany and France, France being particularly exciting and Germany just being absolutely enormous. And the prices in Germany are much more aggressive. But if you were to look at the price distribution in the German marketplace, it's very tough in the middle with THC concentrations in the 20s. But the stronger products and the weaker products that were particularly the ones which have more medicinal focus have much more similar prices to that of the U.K., and that's really where we're going to focus.
Edward Mountney
executiveHopefully, everyone sort of agrees. As always, when I hear James present, it's pretty fascinating. It's a different world, but James is very, very experienced. He's got the chemistry down. He's got the business side of it down, and things are going really well there. So we're very pleased with that investment. Let me just cover how we're thinking about buyer universe for this type of asset. From the outset, we have always been clear that we invested here initially as a way of enhancing value around that adjacent AD facility while also backing the high-quality standalone growth opportunity. We don't see FGEN as a natural long-term owner of a scaled, global medical cannabis platform, but we do believe that if the market continues to develop as expected, Glass Pharms could become a strategically valuable business in an increasingly important healthcare segment. So the investment has a broad range of buyers. That's really indicative of the pace of sector growth in the U.K. and also the fact that, as James said, the U.K. is majorly playing catch-up to an already huge international market. So buyers include established North American cannabis operators looking for new early mover growth opportunities in Europe and backed by significant capital, also large-cap pharma and healthcare platforms as medical cannabis becomes more well recognized, more widely recognized and specialist mid-market healthcare and cannabis funds with experience in the sector and ability to build platforms through bolt-on acquisitions. Also extends to strategic investors, and that's where we're seeing big tobacco and alcohol companies being particularly active in M&A as well as institutional investors and even some consumer wellness brands. What links these groups is a desire to secure positions in a structurally growing market, often through platform-building strategies and selective acquisitions. So a useful and interesting recent example is a company called Organigram's acquisition of Sanity Group, that's a German medical cannabis producer, at an estimated multiple of around 14x EBITDA. Now Organigram is a major Canadian cannabis group, backed by British American Tobacco. And the transaction highlights exactly the dynamic that we are focused on, well-funded strategic buyers seeking access to fast-growing regulated European medical cannabis markets. While every asset and market context is different, that type of valuation evidence is encouraging, and it demonstrates that well-capitalized strategic buyers are prepared to pay meaningful premiums for established platforms that provide access to attractive regulated medical cannabis markets. So in summary, we believe the glasshouse represents a high-quality infrastructure-based proposition with strong growth characteristics and a credible route to future value realization. So before we end this part of the session and move on, I'd just like to say thanks again to James and to Philip and [ Bevan ] from earlier. Really interesting presentations and hopefully leaves everyone with a sense of not only what's happening on the ground, but also why we're really optimistic about what these investments can deliver. So each of these companies operate in very different markets, but they share the common vision of becoming market leaders with a reputation for consistent quality supply alongside strong, stable routes to market. So now before we finish, I'll go back to Charlie. He'll build on the introductory comments made earlier around outlook for cash generation, confidence in delivering a sustainable dividend, and crucially, what we see as opportunities for FGEN to demonstrate why this unique set of assets is already capable of delivering organic NAV growth.
Charlie Wright
executiveSo our central objective is, of course, maintaining the progressive dividend alongside long-term organic NAV growth. And it's not realistic to rely on issuing new equity in the current market environment. So the strategy, therefore, has to work from the capital already inside the company. Cash generation from the operational portfolio, selective follow-on reinvestment and potential realizations from asset sales. And that is the point here. We are not simply waiting for the listed market to reopen. The company needs to keep creating value from the assets it already owns or allocating capital in a way that protects dividend cover and extends the life of the portfolio. So in the short term, the priority is to maintain the high-performing operational portfolio. That means availability, production, cost control, contract management, prudent debt management and selective reinvestments where we see attractive returns. And this is the part of the portfolio that supports dividend cover today. We also want to continue delivering a compelling and balanced mix of growth, high dividend cover and low gearing. We don't want to chase growth at the expense of the dividend, and we don't want to over-lever the balance sheet to manufacture returns. So looking to the medium term, the strategy is opportunistic divestment and capital recycling. And potential areas of focus obviously include the growth assets, but timing and value are critical. The objective would be to realize value when an asset has reached the right point in its maturity curve and when the buyer universe is prepared to pay appropriately for that. And the growth assets are important because they can mature into realization candidates without having to sell the cash-generating core of the portfolio, and that is a subtle but important distinction. Many funds that want to recycle capital have to sell yielding assets and then rebuild dividend cover, whereas FGEN already has that growth component where the primary purpose is capital appreciation and strategic flexibility, while the operational portfolio continues to carry the income objective. And then longer term, the ambition is a unique and scalable company, providing both income and NAV growth with a self-sustaining model that does not rely on equity fundraising. The target shown here is a minimum 8% to 10% NAV total return per annum. That is an ambition, not a guarantee, and it depends on disciplined execution. But the pathway for us is clear, resilient cash generation, asset level value creation, selective realizations and reinvestment into the next generation of core environmental infrastructure assets. Now looking at how capital allocation has evolved over the last few years. Now this slide is obviously busy, but it's one of the most important slides in the deck because it shows how FGEN has already changed its capital allocation in response to the market conditions. So the top half shows sources of capital and the bottom half uses. And across the earlier years after IPO, the company was able to raise equity and deploy it into new investments. The shares traded well. The pipeline was attractive, and equity issuance helped scale the company. As we all know, the market today is very different, and so capital allocation has had to adapt. There is no single silver bullet for a discounted share price, but there are disciplined actions that management and the Board can take and are taking. First, the portfolio continues to generate cash. The project yields shown above the line have grown materially since IPO and now provide a strong base for dividends and selective reinvestment. And that cash generation is the starting point for our self-funded growth. Second, FGEN has shown it can recycle capital through asset sales. So in FY '25, we had significant asset sales with proceeds realized above NAV for the sale of our solar rooftop portfolio and a majority shareholding in part of our AD portfolio, demonstrating that assets can be sold at attractive prices where the market recognizes their value. Third, you can see shareholder returns have increased. The company has returned capital through dividends and buybacks while still continuing to invest selectively in value-accretive opportunities within the existing portfolio. And that balance matters and is something we are continually reviewing alongside the Board. We recognize the market backdrop, but we also recognize the importance in protecting the long-term value creation capability of the company. Of course, debt has been managed prudently. The company has not used leverage as a substitute for equity issuance. Gearing remains low relative to both the sector and also to what many of the assets could actually sustain. So the broader message here is that capital allocation is not static. When equity is available on attractive terms, it can support growth. And when equity is not available, the model needs to rely on cash generation, recycling and disciplined capital allocation. And that is exactly the model we are setting out today and have confidence in for the long term. And so here, we introduce a 5-year creation pathway. Now on the advice of our lawyers, I have to emphasize that this is an illustrative case, indicative only, not a forecast or a guarantee of performance or a commitment to sell any particular asset at any particular time. The purpose is simply to show how the strategy can work in practice based on a sensible and credible set of assumptions. And in this regard, we will draw your attention in particular to the important information on Slide 84 at the back of the deck, which our lawyers have noted should be read in full. So with that out of the way, cash flow and NAV growth over the next 5 years can be driven by 3 sources: portfolio performance, increasing cash flow generation from growth assets as they mature and potential disposals and capital recycling across those growth assets. And the important point is strategic flexibility. We can tailor the extent of disposal and recycling based on value, timing, buyer appetite and the needs of the portfolio. We do not need to sell all the growth assets. Equally, we do not need to hold everything indefinitely if a sale can crystallize value and release capital for better opportunities. The self-sustaining model for FGEN is designed to be flexible rather than binary, and it is built around reinvestment of surplus cash and potential exit proceeds. In a market where equity issuance is not available, that growth has to be earned internally. And the illustrative indicative case we will show here, it focuses on a disposal and recycling scenario across the growth assets with material reinvestment of those exit proceeds into opportunities that balance long-term delivery of income and growth and maintaining a consistent risk profile within the fund. So here, we set out the assumptions behind what an illustrative disposal and recycling case could look like over the next 5 years. And here, we listed the assumptions. So first of all, the disposals of the growth assets are across '28 to '29 at projecting holding NAV at the time of exit and not assuming an immediate premium to NAV. It assumes that value is recognized through the ramp-up period and that sale proceeds are achieved at the holding value at the time. So those proceeds trigger new investment from FY '28 onwards across development, construction and operations, allowing us to refresh the asset base, extend the opportunity set and preserve the ability to deliver both income and capital growth over the long term. Now clearly, the hurdle for any new investment would be subject to capital allocation considerations at the time and compete with the alternatives such as paying down debt or returning capital to shareholders. But in this illustrative scenario, we assume that new investment is the primary application. Now initially, there is a focus on development and construction because following disposals of growth assets, the portfolio would have capacity to reallocate some capital back into growth to support extension of the fund and then investment into yielding assets to support dividend cover, so maintaining that balance of income and growth. In terms of what new investment would look like, it would clearly depend on the market opportunity at the time. But potential areas of focus could include biomethane, low-carbon heat, energy and grid infrastructure and water and waste management, targeting returns within the 10% to 12% range. Now those are sectors where Foresight sees plenty of active deal flow, where FGEN's mandate is relevant and where infrastructure-like characteristics can be found as we committed to focus on in our strategy last year. We also assume that some capital is allocated to pay down the RCF over time using it as a source of flexibility and repaying it when proceeds allow and maintaining the balance sheet strength that has been one of FGEN'S advantages. And the charts help illustrate the mechanics. On the left -- sorry, on the right, you can see investments into assets by stage, so operational, construction and development. And on the left, you can see the use of cash and key balances, investments into assets, RCF repayments, dividends and cash generation, the RCF balance. And the message here is that the model can fund dividends, reinvestment and balance sheet management from internal sources, provided we execute the ramp-ups and capital recycling properly. And that is the core of the organic growth thesis. And so here, we talk about the conclusions about what this illustrative case really shows. So firstly, cash flow generation remains robust. The operational portfolio continues to provide the foundation, while disposals and new investment change the composition of cash generation over time. And secondly, the model does not require disposals to be above holding NAV at the time of exit to work, and that is important. Of course, we will seek to maximize proceeds and we welcome any premium where we can get it. But the base case is not dependent on a heroic exit assumption. It is dependent on disciplined value recognition, realization and reinvestment. Thirdly, the illustrative dividend cover remains in the 1.2x to 1.3x range, which is obviously central to our proposition and remains backed by cash generation, not selling yielding assets. And fourthly, compounded NAV growth -- per share growth is driven by sector rotation and capital recycling. So mature operational asset that generates cash is obviously valuable, but the point -- but there is a point at which selling it and reinvesting it into a higher returning opportunity could create better long-term value. And the chart on high-level sector cash generation on the right shows how that mix can change over time. Core renewables, AD and biomass remain important cash generators. Concessions, energy storage and growth assets contribute in different ways. And new investment then becomes an increasing contributor as proceeds are redeployed. And the fund-level cash flow chart shows the same idea from a shareholder perspective. Income from assets, operational costs, dividends declared and free cash flow. So at a high level, the objectives are relatively simple: keep the operational portfolio producing cash, mature the growth assets to validate value, recycle capital without diluting dividend cover and target new investments that meet the return and risk profile we require. It is not easy to deliver, and it will depend on execution, but the portfolio is now set up to make that possible, a progressive dividend with comfortable cover, organic NAV growth, low gearing and a disciplined risk and return profile. And so to now wrap things up because I can see the drinks and the trouts being laid out at the back. There are 3 takeaways which we would want to leave you with. The first is that FGEN's operational portfolio provides resilient cash generation and dividend support. That is the foundation of the investment case. The dividend is backed by a diversified operational portfolio, not by a single technology, a single power price assumption or a single subsidy regime. Secondly, the growth assets are now operational and moving from construction risk to ramp-up and value realization. They have all reached important milestones. The work is not finished, and we should not pretend it is, but the nature of the risks has changed. We are now focused on utilization, production volumes, customer relationships, pricing, cash generation and exit optionality. And third, disciplined capital allocation creates a pathway to organic NAV growth without relying on equity issuance. That is critical in the current market. FGEN can use cash generation, select the disposals and reinvestment to keep the portfolio moving forward while maintaining dividend cover and a prudent balance sheet. And that is really the whole strategy in one sentence. Use the operational portfolio as the resilient income base, use of growth assets to create capital growth and strategic flexibility and use disciplined capital allocation to renew the portfolio without relying on equity issuance. It's that combination, which is what differentiates FGEN, resilient income today, visible operational progress across the growth assets and a credible route to self-funded NAV growth over the medium term.
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