Fortive Corporation (FTV) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

February 17, 2021

New York Stock Exchange US Industrials Machinery conference_presentation 32 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Julian Mitchell

analyst
#1

Great. So thank you, everyone, for joining. It's my pleasure to have now for our fireside chat, Jim Lico, President and CEO of Fortive; and CFO, Chuck McLaughlin.

Julian Mitchell

analyst
#2

I think we're going to drive straight into Q&A. So please, anyone dialed who has questions you need to ask, e-mail them to me, Julian Mitchell, and I'll try to get around and ask them. So maybe starting off with the first question. Fortive has had a lot of portfolio changes since coming out of Danaher 4 to 5 years ago. Maybe help us understand, Jim and Chuck, how satisfied you are with the portfolio's performance during the COVID downturn. Did it perform sort of as you've hoped and expected, given the realignments that you've made to the business.

James Lico

executive
#3

I think -- Julian, thanks. Great to be with you. I think, at the end of the day, and I try to be quick here, but I think we would be -- we were building the portfolio for higher growth and less cyclicality. As you know, we did a 10-year strategic plan with the Board right after we came out in 2016. And we've executed against that. We're ahead of that plan. We re-upped that, the targets in that plan here just recently in the Board meeting. So we feel really good about where we're at. Now what we didn't anticipate was obviously the -- we were building it for an economic cycle as opposed to a pandemic cycle, which takes us into things like not having customer access for some software businesses, elective procedures. So I would say, certainly, we didn't think about that as we went forward. But I think from an economic perspective and a growth perspective, we feel good about where we're at. And as we -- you start to see a lot of that really happened in the fourth quarter, where so many of what we were really talking about, as COVID started, at least stabilized and sequentially get a little bit better. I think whether it be on the margin front or on the growth perspective, you saw a lot of those things start to play out in the fourth quarter. And I think that's a good exit rate in which to start to talk about 2021.

Julian Mitchell

analyst
#4

Absolutely. And I suppose, maybe clarify for us sort of post-pandemic or having come through last year, how large or what proportion of total Fortive revenues are software today? And how large, perhaps, is the SaaS piece within that?

Charles McLaughlin

executive
#5

Thanks. Software, overall, is probably low teens, 12%, 13%, call it. And the SaaS, what we have is, right now, over $300 million.

James Lico

executive
#6

Of annual recurring revenue.

Charles McLaughlin

executive
#7

Certainly, yes.

James Lico

executive
#8

Right. And I think just to build on that. And as we said, 39%, almost 40% recurring revenue in the -- as we exited. And obviously, that's a combination of not only the software but also the services, consumables that we've added on the health care side. The Advanced Health Care Solutions segment, now with very high very high recurring revenue. So I think it's this combination of things. Certainly, software is a big story, but I think a little bit of what gets lost in the software story is just this idea of just building a more durable revenue stream through consumables and services as well.

Julian Mitchell

analyst
#9

And when you look, Jim, at that SaaS piece, it did perform very well. I think, up high single digit last year even with COVID, low-teens growth exiting the year, entering this new one. What do you think the sort of growth expectation for that SaaS piece should be this year and medium term?

James Lico

executive
#10

Yes. I think for the SaaS part, we think probably low double digits again this year, move around a little bit by quarter. But as we continue to build the business and do some things. But yes, we feel very good about the performance, as you said, in 2020. And '21 is probably in that low double digit, maybe high single, but somewhere in around that range, but we would anticipate it closer to -- or having a double-digit number to it.

Julian Mitchell

analyst
#11

Perfect. And when you look at the broader software portfolio sort of Gordian and Accruent, how should we think about the pace of their improvement as we work through this year?

James Lico

executive
#12

Yes. As you said, well, we had good progress on the SaaS side at Accruent in the fourth quarter. I think that speaks to the good work that the team's done on FBS, particularly in 2020, which both really helped their second half. I think -- and there are probably 2 different stories. The current story is SaaS will continue to be -- to perform. The rest of the software business will continue to get better as we have more access to customers being able to do those on-site assessment services, which were down well into the double digits in 2020, but should come back. So that -- and then for Gordian, it's really about being that -- the state and local government budgets start to get back doing project work. As I mentioned on the earnings call a little while ago, we're starting to see the projects get loaded into the system. So that doesn't -- that sort of gives us a good view of what revenue might look like, say, in 4 to 6 months. So I think -- we think Gordian is a second half story, for sure. We think Accruent, a little bit more of a story right now because, obviously, SaaS still being pretty good and the remaining part of the business should continue to get better through the year.

Julian Mitchell

analyst
#13

And looking beyond perhaps just the software or SaaS parts of the business. If you look at, say, Precision Technologies, I think that's where a lot of Fortive's semiconductor or electronics assets reside. It does seem like there's a very strong end market growth there across that semiconductor supply chain and the OEM and so forth. How large is that electronics and semis exposure at Fortive today? And do you think you're getting your fair share of uplift with that broad cycle that's on the way presently?

James Lico

executive
#14

Yes. I -- first, I would say, our exposure is really in semiconductors attack in the traditional sense, semiconductor equipment companies in sensing tech. So really more of the folks who make semiconductor equipment. And as you said, it's -- we've seen some things come back for sure in the fourth. We saw the -- we did it the first quarter, we talked about the guide for Precision Tech being pretty good, and that has some semiconductor in it. I think our overall exposure to semiconductors throughout Fortive is probably less than 5%. Chuck will correct my math there. But obviously, most of it is in Precision Tech. So we should see -- we've seen some tailwinds. The second quarter has a little bit of an easier comps, so we'll get ahead just by the fact that there's a little bit of an improvement in comps in the second quarter. But yes, we are seeing some of that. We're certainly seeing some of that benefit as we're seeing some of that investment come our way.

Julian Mitchell

analyst
#15

Perfect. And I know that you gave your 2021 outlook fairly recently. We've had some questions. I'm sure you've had [ amendments] well around that sort of first half and second half growth. And investors seem extremely sensitive to sort of inflections in mid-year to organic growth. So I don't know if there's any color you'd like to give on Fortive's expectations around that, sort of understanding the comp differences and so forth.

Charles McLaughlin

executive
#16

Jim, a couple of things I'd say is, keep in mind, the first half of last year, we were down double digit. And as we progressed into the second half of last year, we improved and didn't quite get back to flat. So that gives some distortion when you look at what this year's growths are going to be. So it's going to be higher in the first half than the second half. But when you look at the business on a 2-year stack business and see how all our businesses are progressing, the underlying -- our belief and our theme and -- is that all of our businesses are improving sequentially as they go through the year, even though it might not look like it because of -- if you just look just at the headline print growth there. And we -- that's a reflection of what we think is going on by region and by market and what we expect. No big necessary inflection in our assumption here, but just steady improvement as we move through the year.

Julian Mitchell

analyst
#17

Perfect. And perhaps drilling into the AHS segment. I think at ASP, the consumables business had a tough time for a lot of last year, still down, I think, in North America in Q4. Maybe help us understand how that should improve as we go forward. And should we expect a big sort of margin mix tailwind as those consumable revenues recover?

James Lico

executive
#18

Well, I think there's a couple of things going on at ASP that are going to be positive relative to margins. As I think Chuck was so eloquent last year saying, when we got to the end of the year, we would see really strong margins at ASP. And I think that's exactly what we brought in as we got into the fourth quarter. And that had -- that's a reflection of the work we did in 2020 around getting off TSAs as well as some early FBS role. But I think as we look into 2021, we should see -- and I think the thing we're most proud about in 2020, Julian, was the equipment -- we grew the installed base in 2020. So I think when you think about a consumable and service business, the first and foremost thing you want to do for building long-term growth is to make sure you continue to grow your installed base. And after a few years of share loss during the time of Johnson & Johnson's ownership with ASP, we've -- I think we've done a nice job this year of really reflecting a lot of growth in the installed base. That's going to bode well for when things come back as you -- as the nature of your question. And we certainly believe that things will continue to improve through the year. If you start to think about vaccines through the first half of the year, elective procedures coming back to maybe pre-COVID levels, maybe progressively through the back half of the year. That's kind of our underlying assumption of a little bit of an easier comp in the second quarter. So we should see things continue to improve. And there'll be margin benefit from some of that on the consumable side, but also, as we know, it will also come from the work we're doing from an FBS standpoint. So I think we feel good about where the margins can go. We also want to make sure we continue to invest in the business. So I think this is a combination of doing things relative to driving the margin profile, which we really did in 2020, but want to continue to drive the margin profile. But now I think we also want to make sure we're investing in growth for the business because we think there's still a number of opportunities there.

Julian Mitchell

analyst
#19

And ASP itself, and you still have some tailwinds this year from that TSA roll-off aspect. So maybe remind us what impact that has on the margins at AHS this year. And more broadly, when you look at those large acquisitions, I suppose, ASP, Gordian, Accruent come to mind first off, how satisfied are you with the financial returns that Fortive is likely to generate from those businesses year 3 or 5, whichever time horizon we focus on?

Charles McLaughlin

executive
#20

Well, Julian, let me take the first part of that on ASP. You're right. On a year-on-year basis, especially Q1 and Q2, you're going to see some lift -- quite a bit of lift from what the business is going to do now on an exit rate basis. I also think that, keep in mind, elective surgeries are down, so that's going to be a bit of a tailwind when it comes back, not saying that I expected back in Q1. But keep in mind that for ASP, we haven't even owned the business 2 years yet. And yet -- and we're a little bit hampered here with elective surgeries being down, but our margins -- actual margins that we're achieving are what we expected on higher revenue on both gross margins and operating margins. And after -- we just had another review yesterday with our teams, and we are as convinced as ever that there is opportunity for -- to grow the business faster and accelerate through deploying FBS, and we've had some early wins there. Jim mentioned the installed base going up. But also, we're not -- we're -- there's still opportunity to make more efficient that it will be accretive to margin more than just their natural fall through over the next couple of years. And we'll be working on all those levers at the same time continuing to reinvest in the business.

James Lico

executive
#21

On the Gordian and Accruent question, I think what we were -- I think they're very separate stories. We always felt good about the combination of that market, what we would call facilities and asset management or life cycle management. We like that market. We've got 2 plays in it, slightly different on how they play the market. We're really off to -- was growing double digits from the day we bought it. It was high margins. It's certainly taken a step back in the COVID environment. But we feel good that as we get to state and local budgets, as I mentioned, we see the projects starting to get loaded. We think the second half, it starts to get better in the second half, and I think that continues to be a great business for us. We always like the Accruent business. We always knew there was a little bit more work to be done relative to the SaaS conversion. It's a number of products, so it's not one SaaS conversion. It's multiple SaaS conversion. Well the combination of that, certainly COVID with having a little bit more services, a little bit more licensed software, a little bit more of the things that were impacted by on-site support, slowed the business a little bit. But overall, with the exit rate at SaaS and some of those things coming back, I think we've done a pretty good job. It probably pushes our return out on a combined basis, maybe a year, given COVID. But again, in the case of exit rates and launch points, I think we're in a pretty good place. A lot of work to be done to -- but as I've said before, the long-term growth opportunity probably much better than we originally thought. So while we may be -- it's going to maybe be a little bit more work to get there in the short run because of COVID and some of that. I think the long-term prize here is really, I think, stronger given some of those secular drivers that are really going to drive real estate managers, commercial facilities managers, all the challenges that they've got to do to deal with COVID and people coming back to work. And all those challenge -- different environments, all of those really are opportunities for us whether it be in the project management side, whether it be in the space planning side, we have a hoteling software option. So long term, I think we're in a -- we'll be in a better position, which is obviously great to see.

Julian Mitchell

analyst
#22

And so maybe looking at the sort of the base business and the brands you have owned for a long time, I see there's 2 aspects that it looks like you're very focused on driving to sort of improve those. I think one is digitizing a lot of that core, things like Fluke Digital. So maybe give us some update on where you stand on that. And I thought the second aspect is some of the businesses like Sensing or Tektronix. I think you've talked about geographic diversification there and arguably at Accruent as well. But maybe just those 2 sort of axes of digitization and then geographic, where do we stand today?

James Lico

executive
#23

So I think on the digital front, we've done a number of things over the last several years to build out our digital capability, whether it be changing the tools of FBS to adapt to more digital environment, whether it be the product development cycles to be more software oriented and help software business. We made a lot of progress on the FBS front to add value. So that's -- I think from a core foundation standpoint, I think we've built the capability needed to be able to do some of the things that we want to do. Relative to your specific questions, Fluke Digital had a good fourth quarter. Our SaaS business at eMaint had a double-digit growth throughout the year. So that continues to be a good story. And Fluke continues to sort of build out their offering around digital, and this will be a good year for that work. Excited to see them continue on that effort. Fluke Reliability, which is sort of their broader software services offering, could continue to get better through the year. So I think both on the hardware and software side, their offering continues to improve. On the tech -- in the Precision Technologies, where tech and sensing live, I think the tech team has done a nice job. It just released a couple of things on the software side that will -- won't have a lot of impact in '21, but should start to have impact in '22 and '23. So I think the tech team has done a nice job. Our sensor play is -- every one of our sensor businesses now has an IoT broader offering that they've innovated into. And so I think on that front, broadly, we've made some nice progress here despite the challenges of pandemic and in some of those businesses having been hit pretty hard by revenue in the second and third quarter. They still continue to make sure they were investing in those opportunities. So on the geo front, I would say most of our geo opportunity, certainly, the first and foremost is in the software businesses. When we buy these software businesses, they tend to be U.S.-centric. [indiscernible] you heard us in our fourth quarter call, talk a little bit about Accruent and Intelex and the growth they had in Western Europe as an example. I believe that there's opportunities to expand those businesses in some geographies for sure. And then ASP remains a good opportunity. We've now taken over all those countries in the world. And while we have a big growing business in China, we still think there's a number of opportunities in some of the other higher-growth markets. So yes, so I think I would say, where do we think ASP for sure, the software business is for sure that sort of rolls up to the new acquisitions, having opportunities geographically. And then there's just the blocking and tackling of continuing. We're much smaller, as an example, in India than we were when we came out because of -- mostly because of Vontier having a big India presence. And so that's a place where we're going to continue to look for opportunity just because we think that's a -- long term, that's going to be a big economy, and we need to be able to -- we should be bigger there.

Julian Mitchell

analyst
#24

And maybe switching to the margin side of things. I think you've talked last year about a 35% decremental this year, sort of 35% incremental. Is that 35% leverage sort of the right figure medium term? Or should we think that, look, as you get ASP consumables back to normal software and growing share of the pie, your incrementals over time should move higher than that 35% level?

Charles McLaughlin

executive
#25

Yes. And Julian, the way I think about it is this way. We've got a special situation going on in Q2 of this year, where -- because of what we -- all the actions we took last year, it's likely to be in the 20s. But if you set that aside from Q1 through the rest of the year and beyond, it's probably -- it's going to be 40%. That's the simplest way. So yes is the answer that the incrementals will come up.

Julian Mitchell

analyst
#26

And when you're looking, Jim, at the businesses that have been acquired, how much sort of reinvestment has it taken to get the growth positioning where you want it to be? Was there more heavy lifting that was needed at some of the acquisitions we have discussed? Or actually no, they could be moved in fairly efficiently by some FBS without heavy lifting and that sort of gets them into the right zone? And as an extent of that future acquisitions not yet announced, just want to ask how optimized should we expect them to be operationally on those?

James Lico

executive
#27

Yes. It's -- every story is different, but I would say if we were to think about, certainly, you would say we had a lot of heavy lifting at ASP. A complete carve-out of Johnson & Johnson. We had to stand up a complete company, and that certainly was heavy lifting. And I think, quite frankly, we were well positioned to do it. It's a skill set that we develop through multiple carve-outs, our own carve- out of Danaher. So we really have a skill set around those sorts of complicated transactions. And I think fundamentally, we pulled it off even in a virtual environment, I think, speaks to the ability for us to know how to do this. But I would say, number one, that's certainly heavy lifting. We made some nice progress with FBS in 2020. But I think the -- there's more progress ahead across the board. Chuck just mentioned our review with them yesterday. So I think that's probably a good example of where -- we're very early innings of opportunity. And I think if I were to characterize the software businesses, by and large, they're -- there are more opportunity than fixing. So I would say in a case where you have to maybe do a little bit more SaaS conversion, you might have a little bit more technical debt. You might have to do some things from -- on the R&D side within the construct of things. But where we -- but as an example, Gordian was a high-quality business, but quite frankly, applied FBS very well early on and did a nice job. So Intelex and eMaint are a little bit different. We came out of the gate so well from a growth perspective that we really put more money into it to accelerate growth. We did a little bit of that with Censis last year, where we just added feet on the street, where we could have taken more margin to the bottom line, but we chose to put more investment into the businesses. But I think when we're growing at a double-digit rate in the business. We're probably going to ask ourselves, "Can we -- how can we accelerate that rate? And do we have those opportunities?" So again, there's not one answer to your question, but hopefully it gives you a little bit of color across the portfolio over the last several years what we've tried to do to manage the opportunities that will become available to us.

Julian Mitchell

analyst
#28

On that point on sort of reinvestment, and you mentioned a good example at Censis just now. When you're thinking about measuring the payback and the efficacy on R&D and selling costs and sort of what CapEx there is even though it's a low CapEx-intensive in the business, how do you make sure that as Fortive's business model has evolved into more software into more health care that you're getting that commensurate level of payback on R&D and selling and OpEx and CapEx because perhaps the return profile, the payback, the speed of development is different in those areas versus Fortive's sort of legacy or base businesses?

James Lico

executive
#29

Well, the good news is we have a lot of these approaches, if you will, that have come from us in the Danaher days when we had a number of those businesses as well as part of the portfolio. So I don't think there's as much transformation from a -- of the way we've had to look at it. Health care, a little bit different on the R&D side simply because you have the -- you may have the FDA approval in the cycle. And so you may not necessarily be able to put $1 in and get that dollar as quickly as you would in a business that's had not FDA required. But that's something that's been known to us for some time. So nothing new there. I think the big difference -- I don't think it's a difference, but I think it's an approach is really understanding how this drives recurring revenue in SaaS particularly. Because a dollar that comes up in SaaS, that's $1, particularly when you've got a business, it's all, I'd say, [ $110 ] on net retention, you're buying into a business that's going to be compounding over a period of time that's different. And so we just need to incorporate metrics that are different. But I think we're very familiar with those, whether it be what the changes are in our recurring revenue base or our installed base; what's the improvements on upselling and cross-selling, which obviously influence our net retention -- net dollar retention. So I think it's less a return focused, Julian, because we're always going to be pretty disciplined about what the returns are, but it's making sure that the sub metrics to those returns are being driven as well. And I think we've been pretty sophisticated in continuing our knowledge and learning in that regard. And by the way, we pick up learning when we buy some of these businesses, too. So this is -- when we buy some of these business, what comes with that is some good thing -- things that we can learn as well. That's always been true in our history, and we always want to make sure we're learning some things in the companies we buy.

Julian Mitchell

analyst
#30

And as we think about future M&A, tremendous amount of optionality at the company. At the same time, the asking prices from sellers, I'm sure, are higher than normal history probably in most areas. So how do you weigh up those 2 things? Is the funnel better today than you -- or the opportunity better today than a year ago because you've got more cash and interest rates are even lower? Or are those sort of offset by sellers being very demanding in what kind of prices they think they can attack?

James Lico

executive
#31

Well, I think it really starts with, do we have really good knowledge of the market and do we like the company? As you know, we think about market, company, value creation. And I think if we understand the market, we understand the long-term growth dynamics and we understand the company and we know we can create value, then quite frankly, multiples become less important. High-quality businesses are always expensive relative to the rest of the market or the rest of maybe what, a few years. Over 20 years, high-quality businesses have looked expensive from looking back to the year. That's been true for 2 decades now. So I think it's really understanding and be -- and then finally, it's being disciplined around those -- and we have a Board that's very sophisticated in this regard. We have, I think, a leadership team that understands this. And I think it really bears -- that's really how we have to think about it. So we have to be smart about making sure that we understand that value creation and the levers that are there or opportunities. And if we do, then returns will -- the strong returns, and we can never lose sight of the fact that when we're buying some -- we won't buy all software businesses. But when we buy a software business, as an example, which has a what seems like a higher multiple relative to a hardware business, the compounding effect that happens over a decade is much greater in a software business than a hardware business, particularly, net retention is high. So I think in those cases, you could be willing to pay a little bit higher multiple in the early days because of what the long-term returns are, they're just not -- they're very different.

Julian Mitchell

analyst
#32

And moving aside from sort of financial criteria and characteristics, I suppose you look back at some of the recent acquisitions. ASP perhaps surprised some people a little bit with where it was relative to where Fortive. Gordian and Accruent, the same in a way. So a little bit outward if we deploy cash from here. Could we expect as well that it will be a mix of some things that are very obvious add-ons to the existing base, but maybe some more creative or opportunistic moves into markets that are not obviously immediately adjacent to what you do today?

James Lico

executive
#33

I think it's fair to say because we always had a -- where we're at today, we had a vision for 4.5 years ago. Not perfect vision, but I would say we have the core tenets of the vision we have today as well as articulated in the segments we have today. So it would be fair to say that it's more than likely that capital is going to be deployed. It will look consistent with how the segments talk about their view of the markets from where they want to add value. So I would say probably closer than farther away. You never want to -- and we like our focus. We've just spent considerable amount of time focusing the portfolio. I think it's fair to say you probably be -- I'm not sure how surprised people were. In some cases, maybe they were. I think, Gordian and Accruent were right where we thought where field solutions at the time was. But at the end of the day, whether that's true or not, I think where we stand today, and we'll continue to do -- hopefully, people continue to understand the depth and quality of the segments. And I think through that, they'll understand the opportunities that are available to us.

Julian Mitchell

analyst
#34

Very last quick one. I know we're essentially out of time. But Fortive, as we've seen, very rigorous portfolio management, exited a bunch of material businesses in the last 4.5 years. Is that process for now we should assume, okay, what you have now is pretty much what you should have in a year or 2, barring something strange? Or no, there's always going to be relentless sort of review of what fits and doesn't fit?

James Lico

executive
#35

Well, I think we can always have a relentless review of what we look at and at the same time, be confident of what we have going forward. And I think that would -- I would take the -- I would defer to that because we do strategic plans and market assessments of the businesses every year, and we want to make sure that we're consistent. We're taking the most amount of opportunity or those businesses in the future. Sometimes that means that a separation is part of taking advantage of that big opportunity like a Vontier as an example. So I think we'll always do that. But I think when we sit here today and we look at those segments and the excitement we have across all 3 segments, boy, I feel like if we could execute the execution of our strategic plans over the next 3 years, it means those segments all performed very well.

Julian Mitchell

analyst
#36

Perfect. Well, I'm afraid we're out of time. Thank you so much, Jim and Chuck, for joining us today, and good luck with your investor meetings the rest of the day.

James Lico

executive
#37

Julian, thanks. Bye.

Charles McLaughlin

executive
#38

Great. Thanks, Julian.

Julian Mitchell

analyst
#39

Thank you very much. Bye-bye.

James Lico

executive
#40

Hopefully, we'll see you soon.

Julian Mitchell

analyst
#41

Likewise. Take care.

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