Forvia SE (FRVIA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
October 21, 2022
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorGood morning. This is the conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the FORVIA Third Quarter 2022 Sales Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Olivier Durand, Group Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir.
Olivier Durand
executiveYes. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I'm with Alice Schmauch and Marc Maillet, respectively, Deputy CFO and responsible for Investor Relations for this call. Welcome, everyone. So this morning, we will present, in fact, the updates on Q3, not only on the revenues but also on events in the period, in particular, on deleveraging, the management of the current context, and in particular, the energy crisis and the development of our order book. If I go to Page 3, on the main events on the commercial side, we have a strong order intake year-to-date of EUR 24.5 billion. I want to highlight 2 things about this. Number one, we are selective. We have beef-up our criteria of selectivity, in particular, on the cash aspects. This is in order to foster our cash generation and also to be in a stronger position in our inflation negotiations. However, the demand is clearly there on the different aspects of our portfolio. And it's interesting to see the quality of the order intake of Q3. We got a major deal with Daimler on the complete seats for EUR 1 billion. We got additional wins in hydrogen and in particular, with a long-haul truck leader for mass production of hydrogen storage systems. So the cumulated order since the beginning of the year on hydrogen is more than EUR 800 million now, which is confirming our impact in this activity. And the third one that I would like to highlight is that HELLA has won around EUR 1 billion of awards in the past quarters with 8 different electrical vehicle models with German premium manufacturers and phygital shields, let me explain once second what it is. In fact, when you have an electric car, you are now, in fact, having more flexibility in the front of the car because you don't need a radiator and you don't need the exit of the air in the front of the car. So this front, you can use it differently. And with lighting possibilities of leads and the innovation of HELLA Lighting, we are proposing solutions to use this one in flashing and lighting perspective and also a protection, in fact, of the sensors and the radar equipment that can be in the front. So it's helping, in fact, the car in terms of design and in terms also of utilization, autonomous driving, and other applications. And we are clearly a winner in this field. The second thing I would like to mention is the other development of our hydrogen activities in Q3, we have been selected in a significant manner in the context of the IPSA financing at European level on the hydrogen activity. We have been allocated EUR 213 million on our tank activity, which we own 100%. And we have -- we can say also that Symbio, which is our 50-50 joint venture with Michelin has been granted significant level of financing support from this IP for their own activity. So clearly, it's allowed the development of this activity in a financial improved manner and the development of the hydrogen solution for Europe development. The LR, which has still a difference in timing, as announced its results for their Q1, i.e., June to August. Once 2 things to mention is the improvement of profitability expected over time and which is in line with, in fact, our expectation. And the second point is that there will be alignment of the closing calendar with HELLA at the end of the year. There will be a short fiscal year of 7 months ending December 31st. So next year will be the same calendar, the same quarters for HELLA for FORVIA as a whole, which will help on the visibility of our activity, which is a good thing. And last, an additional confirmation of -- that we are in a good direction on our ESG practices with the inclusion of FORVIA in the CAC 40 ESG index. And the more financial side of activities in Q3 as some on our deleveraging activities. So number one, as announced, we have the sale of HBPO shareholding to Plastic Omnium. The antitrust reporting well. There are 4 clearance to get have been received already, including this week, the one of the European Union. So we are on track for closure expected end of this year. The second thing to mention is that we have different trials ongoing. They are progressing quite well. So we expect at least another deal to be announced by the end of the year and possibly several. On the financing side, in complement to the HBPO sale, we achieved EUR 0.5 billion of new financing in Q3, meaning that the remaining refinancing of the acquisition of HELLA has been divided by 2 in Q3 from 1.7 remaining in July to less than EUR 900 million currently. And we have other financing that we are looking at to complement this refinancing as soon as possible. Now I will go back to the Q3 sales activity and try to lay out the different elements, both by regions and by business groups. So number one, EUR 6.6 billion, up 92% on a reported basis, clearly, very strong growth. If you look at constant scope, i.e., excluding the consolidation of ELA, which is representing 54% of this growth. And excluding currencies, you have a 31% growth year-on-year at constant scope and currencies. This is representing an outperformance of 490 basis points excluding the current unfavorable geographical mix. As you know, we are heavily present in Europe, and Europe was the one growing the list. But I think what is important, even more than our performance is the overall growth of the market. The market has increased by 29.5% in Q3 from a low base of last year, but this is reflecting not only the recovery of China from lockdown of Q2 but a solid activity in the region. We still have lockdowns in some places of the country. The [indiscernible] growing so much in this remaining contract environment is a good sign. The second is that even though they are still semiconductor shortages and stop and goes, they are less prevalent than before. And this [ long ] environment of the production, and I think it's true not only for us, but also for our competitors is -- and our customers is, in fact, getting a little bit less constraints from a product spend standpoint, which is a good thing, and we expect this to remain the case for the rest of the year. And you will see that reflected in our upgrade of the guidance. If I move by business groups, so start [ sitting ] in Page 6, seating represents 30% of our revenues strong outperformance in revenues by 1,140 basis points on the back of a strong increase in China. As you know, we have a very strong historical base, but we have extended this with Chinese OEMs and notably with BYD, which is one of the strong developer of business in China and a winner on the - another winner in the electrical vehicle landscape. So we are with them in a significant manner, and we are also with American electric vehicle carmaker in the region. So very, very positive development from a revenue standpoint in seating. Interiors, we are, in fact, at an organic growth of 27.7%, slightly below the growth of the market. This is reflecting, in fact, the regional mix, first of all, because by regions, we have been quite good and some unfavorable customer mix in Asia in which we grew by 20% only. Moving on in Page 7, on Clean Mobility. Clean Mobility represents 18% of our revenues for both commercial vehicles, hydrogen and our ULE solutions for passenger vehicles. The revenues have increased by 22%. This is below the automotive production growth. This is reflecting the development of electrical vehicles. But I would like to highlight that year-to-date, we have grown organically by 18% compared to 9% on the production. So a solid performance and very important for us given the cash contribution of our cash cow. ClarioElectronics, representing only 4% of the total business of the company. This -- the performance is 24% organic growth year-on-year. This is below the market for one reason, which is that in China, the main plant has been affected by lockdown, measures of the government related to COVID in the province of Jiangxi which we are operating and the factory has not been able to operate during several weeks. So it's more an external factor than really a level of activity. The order book is solid in Clarion Electronics. Page 8 to reflect the HELLA contribution. So one message before we will present from now on the new segment reporting for the FORVIA organization. So we will highlight, in fact, lighting electronics and life cycle solutions. HELLA has started this in their quarterly publication that was presented the months ago on the revenues. We are doing the same here, and we will do this in full at the end of the year. So you see that electronics, in fact, is actually higher than lighting in terms of activity on the back of high demand for energy management and the different component business and body electronics that this business group has. If I move on to more regional look at our revenues of Q3. So all the revenues here are reflecting the total FORVIA activity in the region with scope effect, reflecting, of course, the HELLA consolidation. So Europe, strong outperformance of 820 basis points. This is the case, in fact, on all the major business group, Clarion Electronics being small in the total. So sitting interior screen mobility have been slightly below the 30% and above, in fact, the growth of the market, which was 20.3%. North America outperformance of 220 points in the region. This is mainly sitting interiors, Clean Mobility, a bit lower on the reasons I mentioned before. Even though we are not talking about profitability strictly on Q3, just to highlight that [ Ireland Park Evolution ], i.e., our Michigan seat business that we have highlighted as being problematic is progressing well in -- on the operational side, we are in a very good direction. So we confirm the trajectory presented in the summer. Moving on to Asia in Page 10. So strong market growth, 33.6% and strong activity on our side. We have an outperformance of 200 basis points in -- on top of the evolution of the production in the overall Asia, which means that clearly, China, which is the main contributor for us in the region, as you know, is performing extremely well. We grew organically by 38.4% in China, and we're setting BYD being a key contributor. The rest of the world, I will not comment too much, but this is related to our activity in South America and South Africa. Just to say that we are, in fact, quite -- we are very careful about our activity in South America and South Africa is a good profit pool. Now moving on, on the other topics that our revenues, a bit more details in Page 12 on our disposal program. So as a reminder, HBPO sale of a 33% stake represents 30% of the program. And as mentioned before, we are on track on the [ antitrust ]. The second point is that we anticipate that we will have at least one announced before the year-end and possibly several. So progress on the other files is good. And I want to highlight other files. We are working on different files, which is above -- clearly above the target of EUR 1 billion, in fact, to ensure that we are able to complete and that we are not dependent on a single deal, and this is clearly working. Moving on, on Page 13 on the refinancing. So you see the detailed table is recalling in fact, what was at stake in this domain. We have, in fact, initially to finance EUR 5.5 billion in relating cash EUR 4.9 billion, given that the family that was the owner of HELLA has been, in fact, participating to the Faurecia shareholding and is now the biggest shareholder of Faurecia reflecting the confidence in the merger of the 2 companies. So the real cash financing was EUR 4.9 billion. And you see that with what has been done in the past period, and I would like to highlight the last part since the start of '22, the capital increase in June, but also what has happened in the summer with the EIB and the syndicated loan that we did with banks in Latin America, mainly Mexico had good financial conditions, plus the divestment of HBPO remains less than EUR 900 million to do. And we are working on the 2 things. #1, complete the disposal program and number 2, different financing in order to ensure that we are fully refinancing deal acquisition by August 23 when the bridge-to-bond mature. Moving on to how to protect our profitability and cash generation. So a highlight on the energy crisis management in Page 14. As you know, the spot price of energy bill have exploded in the recent period in Europe. And I would like to highlight what is our position and situation on this. We have put hedging in place before this crisis. And this hedging, in fact, allow us to have, in fact, more than 90%, I think it's 94% of '23 being covered, which has 2 benefits. Number one, we know how much will cost the energy next year for us. Number 2, we know we have, in fact, that is increasing by 1.8x, a major one, but compared to the spot price evolution that you see on the right-hand side, clearly, a difference. The second thing is that we are doing our work internally to protect, in fact, on the energy consumptions. So 2 things. We had launched before this crisis, a self-production program, part of our sustainability ability activity. And we are underway to have 1 million square meters of our -- the root of our plants covered with solar panels. The second is that we have deployed a program of frugality of energy consumption in Europe that we call We save energy across all our sites in Europe that will consist in lower heating that will consist also, in some cases, in closing some days on the non-production sites and also, in fact, giving pullover, the sweaters to the people so that we can work properly. And the last thing is that in July, I mentioned that we are launching -- preventing measures regarding ensuring that we are able to have -- to avoid direct problems on our production from energy shortage. Those measures are now in place. We have reviewed 2,600 suppliers in order to check their situation. And for a few of them on which they were a topic, we have defined to buy in advance or to have them produce in consignment for us so that it can be done now rather than in the middle of the winter, which is the most risky period in Europe. And on our side, we have done a safety measures as well. So we are doing the things that are in our capacity to ensure, in fact, continuity of service in the winter. In Page 16, we have the upgrade of our guidance. So given what is happening currently in the market with production volume getting better with constraints overall, getting lower, they remain quite important. We are still in a constraint environment, but this is less the case than before. We are revising 2 things that were present in our guidance. So one is on the volume. So we expected so far million vehicles for the year, i.e., H2 equal H1, and H1 was the world trend plus full lockdowns in many China in Q2. We see that, in fact, IHS Standards & Post Global Mobility later forecast is at EUR 79 million. We see that Q3 and our EDI were strong. So we revised -- still in a prudent manner to 77 million vehicles. The second is we are taking into account the evolution of currencies and in particular, the strength of the U.S. dollar. So the average we are taking for the year is 1.05 on the back of the current situation on the U.S. dollar and same on the [ renminbi of the Chinese ]. So the 2 elements combined with the other performance we are achieving strong backlog allow us to say that in terms of revenues, we should expect EUR 24.5 billion to EUR 25.5 billion compared to EUR 23 billion to EUR 24 billion previously, an increase -- a sizable increase, which is the combination of the factors mentioned above. The second thing is on operating margin and net cash flow in a [ prelet manner ], we maintained the range and the guidance we said before, but it means an operating margin, an absolute increase on the back of the additional revenues I mentioned. In addition, confirming our priority on deleveraging, we are targeting a net debt [ EBITDA ] equal to 3 at the end of December. As a reminder, the waivers of continents that was negotiated in H1 led to no covenant tests in June and a move to 3.75 for December '22. And it's clear that with what I'm mentioning, we have no topic in this respect. And in conclusion of my presentation, just to mention that we expect, and we -- you are welcome to come to our Capital Market Day in early November. It will be, in fact, in 2 days. The first day on the third will be really on medium-term strategy ambition and also our actions to manage, in fact, the current environment and conclude our deleveraging. And the second day will be more focused on ESG strategy priorities on November 4, and we call that an assistant EBITDA day and you are, of course, welcome to both of those events. And on this note, I am, in fact, available for -- we are available for your questions.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Michael Jacks with Bank of America.
Michael Jacks
analystI have 3 questions. I hope that's okay. The first one is just on the cash flow guide. It seems to be very conservative, given that you printed [ $100 ] million in the first half. EBIT in the second half is shaping to be up by, I don't know, at least 50% half and half. So we'd expect in very rough terms, at least EUR 300 million of additional cash generation in the second half. I know you mentioned that you need to build safety inventories, but this would need to rise by more than 10% on the inventory balance to notify cash flow for the second half. So how should we think about that? And perhaps I'll stop there and ask the other 2 questions after that.
Olivier Durand
executiveThank you. So indeed, I prefer to remain prudent on the cash flow. I think there are several reasons. One is, in fact, what you mentioned on protecting the winter, I think this is -- we have to secure that. And if it means a bit of cash at this year instead of beginning of next year, I think it's a good one. The second one is conclusion of some activities. And the third is that we did some increase of factoring in H1, and we are not -- we are not doing this in H2. So in fact, excluding factoring, we are talking about an improvement of performance in H2.
Michael Jacks
analystUnderstood. My second question is on asset disposals in HELLA. Is there an asset value threshold for which you would require minority shareholder approvals?
Olivier Durand
executiveNo. So in fact, on the disposal process, we have to ensure that, in fact, the process is [ HELLA ] and that the evaluation is confirmed by a third party. But actually, I think it's a good thing because this is what we should do anyway. And this is, for instance, what has been done for the sale of HBPO and has been presented in details to the shareholders of HELLA during the general assembly at the end of September. So perfectly normal requirements. And I think it's a good practice anyway in any disposal.
Michael Jacks
analystAnd then my last question is just in terms of the plan for upstreaming disposal proceeds. Will this be done through an intergroup loan or through dividends?
Olivier Durand
executiveSo just to come back on the previous point. I would like just to highlight that the disposal program is a FORVIA 1 and not HELLA 1, i.e., we have considered different assets in the HELLA portfolio and in the Faurecia portfolio to be considered inside. So we should not consider that EUR 1 billion will come out from HELLA. It's not the case, not at all. Related to upstream, we are looking at other 2 aspects.
Operator
operatorThe next question is from Giulio Pescatore with BNP Exane.
Giulio Pescatore
analystThe first one to go back on the free cash flow guidance. I mean your margin and top-line guidance, your new one, it's quite wide still. And I mean it does imply a swing of about EUR 300 million from the bottom end to the higher end. Is it fair to assume that if you were to reach the guidance on the upper end, you would in fact generate a positive free cash flow? Now I have another one, but I'll just, yes, ask that later, if that's okay.
Olivier Durand
executiveSo if we are on the upper side of the revenue side, we should be also good on the profitability and possibly on the cash. I prefer to remain prudent and maybe it can be set conservative but to remain prudent because on the environment. But I agree with the comment. That's…
Giulio Pescatore
analystUnderstood. And the second one on interest costs. Can you give us an idea of the headwind from the higher interest rates that you're seeing in the market that we should expect for next year? I know that only 1/3 of your debt is on variable interest rates. But yes, you can just give us a rough idea of what the headwind could be on interest payments.
Olivier Durand
executiveSo as we are mentioning the -- in fact, we have completed the vast majority of the refinancing. So we know the interest rates for it. You see that, in fact, we have a cost of financing of 3.25% on the existing one. The second point I would like to highlight is the example of what we did with LatAm banks in which we got 3.35%. So clearly, we have the majority being done. On the remaining part, it will depend what I anticipate with the evolution is that we can have an increased short-term of the interest cost next year by EUR 50 million, but vice versa the interest cost of this year has been, in fact, abnormally [Technical Difficulty] H1, #1 because of [ ForEx ] and number 2, of specific integration costs. So when you take the combination of this, net-net, I would say that you have a negative of EUR 50 million and a positive of EUR 50 million easily. So the net financial cost for the company for next year, I do not expect an increase.
Operator
operatorThe next question is from Christoph Laskawi with Deutsche Bank.
Christoph Laskawi
analystThe first one would be on the potential impact from inventory build at the OEMs. Obviously, we saw today at renal, other OEMs have commented in the same direction for Q3. Did you see that as a big driver for your top line during the quarter? And do you expect any changes going into Q4? If you could just comment on the latest run rate of production. And then a question on the orders that you highlighted, both at HELLA and Faurecia. Could you comment on the synergy effect that you potentially had on winning those orders in the RFQs and the discussion with the OEMs? And those are my 2 questions.
Olivier Durand
executiveThank you. So inventory buildup in OEM is a very relative element because we are still today at very -- at low inventories at the OEM level. It is getting a bit better, but it's not yet returning to, let's say, the level that existed before the crisis. So -- but it is an indication of a bit less constraints on the supply chain overall. It doesn't say for me anything about the aspect of retail activity per se yet. And maybe since we talk about inventories, it's still the case that we have high level of inventories on our side. This is -- this will get better progressively on 2 fronts: number one, less stop and go and supply chain issues, but it will be progressive. And second, operational improvement that we have to do. which is more a story for next year than, in fact, immediate effect this year, given timing of correction of inventory and then payment terms. And this is another reason for me to be prudent on the cash flow. For me, our guidance is a minimum. So I hope you understand what I mean. On the synergy effect, you know that the synergies that we have committed in the context of the integration first of all, on cost and purchasing real estate, back-office functions. This is what is behind the EUR 250 million of synergies by EUR 25 million. We have also a potential on revenues, and we got already, I think, EUR 300 million of orders on -- coming from the synergies. One example is the CCH deal obtained by the electronics part of HELLA with a French customer because of the presence in France. And I think there is a cost fertilization based on space, which is not exactly the same between the 2 companies. So this is a good thing. So we see actual cases already happening. If anything, I believe it will be higher than what we said initially, which was EUR 600 million.
Christoph Laskawi
analyst2 follow-ups, if I may. One, I mean, I appreciate the comment on energy that you've given in the presentation and the press release this morning. Are you already starting to discuss with the OEMs to pass on part of the headwind that you see? So the gross headwinds you've made clear. But should we expect that as net? Or is there certain offset rate that you have? And just one follow-up to something that you said before. Did you say interest costs for next year are flat? Or are you seeing an increase? I didn't catch that.
Olivier Durand
executiveSo on -- so on energy, yes, we are negotiating a recovery of the excess cost that we are facing. Absolutely. Recovery to be as high as on raw material, I'm not so sure, and I'm not betting for a complete recovery because it's less structured than raw materials in which you have contract agreements and practice in the past. But the circumstances, very exceptional. What we have done, thanks to [ FORVIA ] thanks to our action is to moderate this impact heavily. You see it -- in fact, several times less than it could have been. So clearly, we have to share that with the OEMs, and this is part of the negotiations ongoing. On interest, I was probably not clear. I expect for the remaining part of the refinancing to be at higher cost than what we got so far for sure. I was just saying that the total financial cost of the company between this year and next year, net-net, should not increase because this year, we have exceptional factors in the financial cost related to the integration, related [Technical Difficulty] that should not repeat themselves next year. So that's why I'm saying, net-net, I should not have an increase.
Operator
operatorThe next question is from José Asumendi with JPMorgan.
Jose Asumendi
analystThis is José from JPMorgan. A couple of questions, please. Can you comment on the price increases? You have carried out sequentially in the second half versus the first half for the price increases driving revenues in the third quarter. Then the second question, I'm aware that this is a revenue call, but if you could please comment in an environment where [ FORVIA cap ] production is flat, and can FORVIA still improve our earnings and generate cash flow? That's I think one of the key questions we frequently get asked around the company.
Olivier Durand
executiveSo on your first question on the -- on price increase, I guess -- and you are mentioning on inflation recovery. So I can confirm what we said in July, i.e., that in H1, we were recovering 80% of it that we have, in fact, deals and negotiations to, in fact, have a better performance in [Technical Difficulty]. There is a bit of a mechanical aspect to it, which is that our deals and practices on raw material recovery is based on the lag compared to the external reference price. So since, in fact, on many raw materials, we had a peak in May, June, and we have a reduction, not a return to the past, but a reduction compared to this peak. Actually, it means that the lag will be incorporated in the deal and will foster in fact, the recovery in H2. And that's why we say 90% in H2 is really a normal number. There is the aspect of better governance internally to manage that, but there is also a bit of a mechanical, which is we will get in Q3, something that we didn't get in Q2 because of the evolution of the curve of the main raw materials for us. On the second question, so if I understood the question correctly, tell me otherwise, you are saying if we expect production next year, for instance, to be flat, which I think is a good anticipation. We should not bet on an increase overall in improve our financials and in particular, on the cash flow. So on the profitability, we have been impacted by 2 things. One is this Michigan contract in the States. And clearly, with what has been put in place, this will not impact us next year at all. So you have a mechanical benefit on this one. The second is the recovery of inflation, better governance and in fact, moderation on the raw material evolution should allow to have clearly a further improvement in next year on raw material is a full recovery by the end of '23. Now moving on to cash flow. We have increased inventories this year. And we will decrease inventories next year. So we will have a double effect compared to this year because instead of having a cash out because of inventory, we will have a cash in net-net because of decrease of inventories. They are not only the environment if the semiconductors continue to be less complicated, still a topic, but a bit less complicated, it will help. And second, we are taking measures to beef up our inventory management. And the second point, what we say of activity of orders as a direct cash impact. When we limit our order intake, we limit what we call the upfront. The upfront is what is the amount of cash outs that you have to mobilize between the time you sign and the time the production is starting, the time of development. And in this time of development, you have R&D, you have CapEx. You have sometimes training of people because it can be a new technology or a new process. And we have, in fact, reduced our ambition on order for this year and for next year, saying selectivity will help us present several hundred million in cash flow savings for next for '23 and '24. It does not change our ambition midterm given the backlog we have and given the timing for translation. But in the context of uncertainties and the priority we have clearly on deleveraging the company, this is the right thing to do. So on the back of those elements, we will have cash flow generation next year.
Operator
operatorThe next question is from Pierre Quemener with Stifel.
Pierre-Yves Quemener
analystYes, sure. Do you hear me?
Olivier Durand
executiveYes.
Pierre-Yves Quemener
analystYes. Olivier, I would have 2 questions, which are forward-looking. The first one, do you plan to have top-line growth into next year, given that a recession is likely, especially in Europe, which accounts for roughly half of your business, that would be the first question. And probably digging a bit deeper, I guess, when I speak of Faurecia with investors, I mean the main concern is the elephant in the room, your balance sheet. Net debt should rise to roughly EUR 8 billion end of this year. What is your plan to accelerate and step up deleveraging into next year? Do you expect significant free cash flow? I know you have given some of the bricks answering the previous question, but could you consider stepping up the disposal plan beyond EUR 1 billion, number one? And what could be the level of free cash flow next year, given that we are heading once again, in a very uncertain environment, so as to, let's say, decreased net debt by at least EUR 1 billion into 2023?
Olivier Durand
executiveThose are perfectly fair questions. So the balance sheet is not the element of the wound is actually the priority in the room. We are perfectly conscious that in this environment, it's even more important. In a normal context, you do a big acquisition, you have to clean up your portfolio of activities. In a context like this one, you have to do it even more and the faster the better. But on disposal, I want to make sure we are doing the EUR 1 billion. The portfolio that we have, in fact, identified for the disposal is higher than this level. If we are able on this portfolio to do more, we will do more. But today, I would say, to complete the program of EUR 1 billion, and let's see if more is possible. On the aspect of evolution of revenues next year. Overall, we are not contemplating a growth of the market. And we believe that within this market, China will be a good element. And Europe, it's an uncertainty. But maybe I should say that there is a big difference between the retail market and the production market. the production market remains under constraint. And in the European case, during several weeks, the launch of the train or production in Europe was blocked because of certain elements that were coming either from Russia or from Ukraine. So when you compare year-on-year, you have to take this into account. But we'll be cautious. We will, in fact, flex our cost to face the uncertainty so that we are in capacity to adjust if necessary. We expect a bit of top-line growth because of the overperformance, but that's it. Now the -- with this, we are targeting free cash -- significant free cash flow next year, not only because of the activity, but frankly speaking, first of all, because of working capital management and CapEx moderation. The last factor I can mention is that we are on track on the synergy of the integration with HELLA. The impact this year is, of course, limited because you have an aspect of ramp-up and will be sizable next year, which is contributing, in fact, to the positive evolution between '22, '23. But those key questions are at the center of what we will present in the Capital Market Day because we want to highlight in detail our plan to [Technical Difficulty] that we are working to consider, in fact, not only the potential of FORVIA, which is a very clear one, but also to face the headwinds of the current environment. So those things will be addressed and we -- and can be discussed in detail during the Capital Markets Day. Absolutely.
Pierre-Yves Quemener
analystThank you, Olivier. If I may comment, that's instrumental, I mean the deleveraging, if you want to get all the positive attention of investors and subsiders into your medium-term plan, I guess the deleasing will need to be addressed at first. Thank you.
Operator
operatorThe next question is from Sanjay Bhagwani with Citi.
Sanjay Bhagwani
analystI've got 3 questions as well. So my first one is as you have clearly mentioned, deleveraging is the key priority for you. So maybe just to get some more color on these divestments. What we have seen in the past few weeks is one of your peers actually announced the sale of their electrical state catalyst business. So some of these like also reduction technologies where the private equity consolidator is consolidated in different businesses. So could you maybe provide if you can take that as a cross-read for Asia? And in that context, how big is the part of the business, which is, let's say, falls into the ambition [ with the ] technology? That is my first question. And I'll follow up with the next one.
Olivier Durand
executiveI will try to answer that. If I do not answer your question tell me because the line is not very good. There were some cuts. But related to disposals. So what I can say is we have different businesses that we have put in the program. And the different -- the are following parallel trucks -- and we are discussing on those, sometimes with the mix of industrial potential partners and potentially investors private equity. What we are doing is to make sure that any of those transactions is in a balanced manner and in the interest of all stakeholders. If I take HBPs, actually, it's a good thing that the company is owned 100% by one company. There was no strategic benefit ultimately to keep 34% of the company. So this is what we are doing also in terms of timing, we committed for cash in end of next year, which means given antitrust that I would say, end of the summer, we should have all the deals closed in the EUR 1 billion program, but this is ongoing. I cannot give you the detail of those businesses because I want to keep my capacity of negotiation, and I hope you appreciate that. But those businesses are not central to our activity. They are not central to the project of FORVIA ultimately. So it makes sense to look at options for them. Tell me if I answered completely or there are elements in complement you want to…
Sanjay Bhagwani
analystActually, you answered it. That's very helpful. I mean you answered it as much as you can. So my next question is on the fixed floating rate. So can you please confirm? I think Giulio already touched on this, but can you see confirm this is still 1/3 after the recent refinancing post Q2? And how does the mechanics of this floating rate interest was? So for example, let's say, the financing or the interest cost that you will be paying in H2? Is it determined based on the reference rate, what was prevailing at the beginning of H2 or that will be demined where Europe ends at, let's say, end of the year? So that's -- sorry, does that make sense?
Olivier Durand
executiveYes. So as you know, we have a fairly -- except the bridge loan, we have a fairly large maturity on our debt, which is fixed. So that's why we are saying the dominant part is a fixed bill for us. Now the bridge loan is, of course, to be refinanced. And this is where there is variable part. So we can say the remaining EUR 900 million. If we were doing no other disposal would be variable. But the EUR 900 million remaining will be a combination of the disposal and other refinancing. And we are looking at both so that these aspects that is impacting heavily the share price and the questions on FORVIA are sold as quickly as possible. So that's why I'm saying the impact of variable rate is not - is [Technical Difficulty] all on our side. We have some -- we have a bit in our debt or variable side on the -- let's say, on the recurrent activity, but it's a secondary aspect. So we are conscious of this, and I think this is why we are trying also to be creative in our financing. And if I may, what we have done with banks in Mexico and Latin America is an example of this. We got a maturity of 28 at 3.35% in fact, during the summer, which is, I would say, a good one. And I expect, in fact, to be able to do a similar one elsewhere in the coming weeks and months. So we are, in fact, trying not to be dependent on one single market, which will be at very high-interest rates.
Sanjay Bhagwani
analystThat is very helpful. So to confirm on the [ LatAm ], so I understand the maturity 28 but the rate is a reference rate plus this 3% number you mentioned? Or it's fixed rate like you're going to be paying like the rate you mentioned between 28?
Olivier Durand
executiveIt's fixed rate.
Sanjay Bhagwani
analystOkay. That is very helpful, actually. So yes, my last question is on the cost items, I think you provided a really good overview on all the key cost items. But let's say, apart from the interest rates and energy, are there any other cost items for the next year we should be thinking of, like this can be either headwinds or even tailwind? For example, let's say the freight and the [ downward ] costs are coming down. So if you can provide some more color on that, please?
Olivier Durand
executiveSo in the domain of inflation, you have, in fact, 4 categories. So the dominant one for us is raw materials. Energy is actually quite small in reality in value, but it's -- in fact, it's a good thing that we have been hedging this so that the impact is moderate for us. We have a bit on freight. But I would say on freight, we know already the impact of this because this is what we have been confronted with. On freight, the impact is not too high because we don't have so much international freight. We have regional and local. And on the freight, the sea freight, if and when we are using it is going down after being at a very abnormal high level. The fourth category is wages. So this year, we are able to have really a small impact on this aspect. And we have only 2 types of impact. One is you can have some negotiations in a given region figured more at the OEM level and in which indirectly we are impacted because we are in the same auto manufacturing environment. In that case, we are able to negotiate with the OEM, in fact, to passing because actually the trigger of I would say it's not the trigger that the OEM, but the new negotiations are happening with the OEM perfectly aware of those negotiations. So let's say, the discussion and the sharing of the burden can be done. The second case we had in this year were more special bonuses in order to, let's say, limit the impact on people on this additional inflation that we are facing. For next year, we expect a bit of increase in salaries in some jurisdiction. This should not be -- this should not be too high, and we intend to put it inside the negotiation with the customers but also to accelerate productivity improvement. What I mean by productivity is productivity, thanks to digitalization and operational industrial improvement, but also the fact of, in fact, having more of it in low-cost countries. So this is the case on the production, but this is also, in particular, the case on the R&D. As you know, several countries like China, India are extremely good in software and R&D activities, and we have ramped up heavily. In fact, the R&D inside those countries in electronics and other domains. So that's, in fact, means that the aggregate inflation is reduced by this. So we expect a bit of an increase. This will be part of the negotiation with labor unions and employees, and we are taking this as part of the inflation. So next year, I expect less topics related to raw materials. They will be finishing the, let's say, the conversion in the recovery of the raw material with this compensation mechanism with lag that I mentioned earlier. And I expect, in fact, more on wages in which we have to do our own work on productivity. And in case something abnormal inflation is happening, we need, in fact, to take this into account in our negotiations with the OEMs.
Operator
operatorThe next question is from Thomas Besson with Kepler Cheuvreux.
Thomas Besson
analystIt's Thomas from Kepler Cheuvreux. I'll try to ask quick questions as it's quite late already. First one, can you help us, Olivier, understand the gross impact in 23 of these 4 inflationary headwinds versus what you had in 2022? Is it right to think it's probably going to be less than half of what you had? And what would you expect it to be on a net basis? The first question, cost inflationary and rates for '23. Second, maybe [ candid ] question, but when the market is concerned by your bridge loan, 2023. Why don't you refinance with banks? I mean, these banks that have made the loan for the acquisition must be very willing to eventually push forward the lens of this. Is it not a more simple way of addressing this refinancing question than waiting for disposals to happen and probably on lower multiple than we would have hoped 6 months ago? That's the second question. And the third question, could you give us an idea of what the amount of absolute CapEx, both tangible and intangible CapEx, we will get ultimately in '22, '23 with your more cautious scenario for flat production next year?
Olivier Durand
executiveGood questions. So on inflation, I expect at least division by 2 compared to this year. In terms of additional inflation and really the impact of inflation for the year [ at FORVIA ] is probably more than EUR 1 billion, if I take FORVIA, including HELLA. So next year, it's maybe even 1/3 because the reality is that raw material increase year-on-year will be potentially even a decrease. The energy we know the bill, the wages probably, it's around EUR 100 million that we can anticipate on wages of abnormal inflation if I can put it this way. So yes, so net-net, 1/3, 40% of what we are facing this year. The recovery rates also raw material in almost in full. Probably the rest will be, I think overall, we should say [ 15% ]. Of course, we hope for more. But -- so net impact will be clearly less than this year. So now on the bridge loan -- of course, we have plan B, plan C. But plan A is disposal. And we would have done disposal anyway. There is an aspect of management attention. There is an aspect of diversity of activity. So to have EUR 1 billion disposal after such an acquisition would be a normal thing anyway. So I think we have to do it. We are progressing on the different sides. I hope we can -- I believe we will announce one more deal at least by the end of the year. So it's not so far in terms of internal progress after other aspects are looked at as well in -- and of course. On the CapEx, I would say that compared to this year, we should be at least - CapEx and R&D capitalization, at least EUR 200 million less than this year.
Thomas Besson
analystYes. May I ask you something while I'm on the line, is it possible to get from you the latest 22, 23 consensus before your CMD, please? I f you should plan to if you plan to build on...
Olivier Durand
executiveMarc. Marc is answering, of course.
Marc Maillet
executiveI'm not collected on that, but we can send as promised.
Operator
operatorThe next question is from Edoardo Spina with HSBC.
Edoardo Spina
analystI only have one set of questions about semiconductor. If you can let us know the exposure you have to semiconductor for FORVIA, either as a percentage of sales or percentage of cost for 2022 would be great. A ballpark number would be useful. We estimate about 8% of sales but awaiting your feedback. Still on semiconductor, could you discuss the direction of pricing for 2023? We understand there will be inflation in that and I hear5% to 10% is a reasonable inflation for semiconductor. And also, if you are paying the semiconductor in dollars or you have local currencies for this? And very finally, the pass-through clauses for semiconductor, I don't think at the moment, you have any also HELLA doesn't I think. But I understand some competitors seem relatively optimistic that we'll be able to achieve some pass-through on semis. And I was keen to hear your thoughts.
Olivier Durand
executiveSo on semiconductors, actually, it's very difficult to say what is the real exposure we have on semiconductors because I can give you the direct exposure, which is in relation to our electronics business. But the real exposure is not this one, it's the whole supply chain. The cause of [ stop ] definitive [ stop ] by FORVIA related to semiconductor is quite small. We have sometimes some cases of incomplete. We have some time cases of delays. But it's not the main cause. The main cause is that somewhere else in the supply chain, there is another difficulty and the combination of those difficulties are putting a constraint, the production of an OEM and then everybody is impacted. So the real risk on semiconductor is the volume of the car industry. And probably, we still have 5 million to 10 million cars not being able to be produced because of various supply chain constraints of which semiconductors remain probably the most important. So the real figure is the lack of activity that is happening currently on the production side because of those constraints. And I think it's important to take [ on ] when we try to estimate what will happen in '23. In '23, there will be 2 forces in totally opposite direction. One will be a progressive, further reduction of constraints on semiconductors remains, but you see the number of cases going down. Currently, we are at 50% less than the, let's say, the average of H1. So that mechanically will mean that part of the non-possible production today will happen. And then there is deposit force, which is what some of you mentioned, which is the risk, in particular, in Europe because the economy because of other factors of -- coming from a recession. Does it mean that net-net, the production overall will go down? That's for me, a real question mark. I don't see that. However, we will work to be flexible in case it does happen. But we have to take the 2 factors into account. So semiconductor exposure, not too big directly for us. The problem is the whole activity is constrained. Semiconductor pricing. So 5%, 10%, yes, compared to the pricing, excluding spot buy. As you know, in order for everyone to try not to be the cause of a stoppage, we are, and I was in charge of FC for 1 year, I did that unfortunately quite a bit. I have been forced to buy on the market, spot buy with value sometimes at 100x the normal price. So if there is a progressive positive evolution of semiconductors, those spot buys should recede. And by definition, when you take the inflation, it will impact downwards. So on the listed price, 5%, 10% for many, yes. But on the aggregate price, I think you have to divide by 2. Now on pass-through, we are already getting [pass-on] semiconductors. It's not as simple as raw material. I recognize that. But whether it is on specific spot buys that we are doing or on other things, we are getting some compensation from the customers. It's complicated, and it's not at the same percentage as standard raw materials, which are oil, plastic and we actually do in HELLA, in Faurecia. And so in total for FORVIA and it's getting better over time because the negotiations are more and more, I can I say, structured and accepted by other parties because everybody knows that it's reality. It's painful. It takes time, but it's -- currently, it's part of the situation.
Operator
operatorThe next question is from Martino de Ambroggi with Equita.
Martino De Ambroggi
analystStill focused on free cash flow this year. Could you quantify the net working capital absorption and the amount of factoring that you commented is not expected to grow in the second half of the year? And still on the components of the free cash flow, just to double check in one of your previous answers, you mentioned CapEx will be down EUR 200 million next year, if I understand correctly. And what is the amount for the current year? And the second question is on the operating leverage. I understand it's a very complicated environment, but what is a normal operating leverage under the new perimeter in case of 10% growth or decline in top line.
Olivier Durand
executiveSo let me start with the factoring. So we had a factoring program in place in Faurecia. And we have extended this program to the new scope, i.e., for FORVIA, including HELLA. So it represented, in fact, more than EUR 200 million in H1. We are at EUR 1.3 billion, and we will not move from this EUR 1.3 billion in the second half. That's why I was saying that everything being equal, we have-- you have to look at the operational cash performance of H1 with this contribution of factoring and that we are not going to extend. We have the capacity. We have, in fact, lines that are far in excess of this, but it's part of our commitment not to exceed this level. On the other elements of working capital, what we expect for the year, in fact, is to be flattish for the year in terms of working capital, which is due to the level of inventory. And for me, there is a potential to do better than that. And we are working on doing better than this number. But from a cash perspective, I think the impact of it will be first - will be much bigger next year. Inventory is going down and then the cash impact reflected inside the numbers. So maybe a bit of positive surprise for the end of the year and the rest for next year. Related to the EUR 200 million I was mentioning, I was mentioning CapEx and R&D [ capital ], which is for this year, overall, EUR 2.5 billion. And I was saying at least EUR 200 million, EUR 200 million in this -- in this respect, which I think is actually a minimum to be honest because we are doing a lot of CapEx with the moderation on new order intake, we have plus digitalization of some of the process. We have clearly the capacity to do better than the 200. The last question was on operating leverage. In [ CI ], the 15% remains valid after it depends a little bit on the business and so on. But everything be equal- in a fairly normal environment, 50% is still valid. -- except [ if it's correct ]. Just one more thing is that if it is purely the appreciation of U.S. dollar, it's based on the profitability of our North American business. If we have more revenues, if we have U.S. dollar appreciating by 5% to take this example, all the lines of the P&L are increasing by 5%, including the cost. So operating leverage on business, yes. On [ ForEx ] is more, in fact 5%, 6%.
Operator
operatorThe last question is from Stephen Reitman with Societe Generale.
Stephen Reitman
analyst[ Paris ] also showed earlier this week, and what was very, very impressive was the BYD, the BYD [ stand ] and it shows the series of their intent on cars. You've already highlighted your increasing business with BYD, particularly in seating. Could you comment on how you see the Chinese business developing? We can clearly see that they are massively improving the quality and the preset quality of their vehicles and the like. So that must be having a quite substantial impact on the quality of the business you're doing with them as well.
Olivier Durand
executiveAbsolutely. The evolution of the Chinese carmakers and the new entrant is particularly impressive in reality in a fairly short period of time. So BYD is particularly to mention, they are selling more EVs than Teslin in China, I think it's twice as much. In July, they were producing 4x what they were producing a year before in the month of July. I don't know the number for August, but it shows. And as more important than this, China is now a net exporter of cars. Since the beginning of the summer, they sell more cars outside that, in fact, cars are imported from premium brands in the Chinese market. And you can expect this to grow heavily. The Chinese carmakers are planning to increase their presence in Europe. And I think the Paris [ auto show ] is a testimony of this. Now what does it mean for us? We are, in fact, with the different [ terms ] and quite present with the Chinese OEMs. If the export, we will be, in fact, benefiting from this -- in the production in China. And if and when they start to have production sites in the destination countries, I guess, we will be with them as well. So it's - actually, we will benefit from this. What I hope is that everybody is taking the Chinese competition in a serious manner because they are doing serious cars in good financial conditions. But for us, it's a set of customers that are interesting.
Operator
operatorMr. Durand, this concludes our Q&A session. The floor is back to you for any closing remarks.
Olivier Durand
executiveFirst of all, thank you for all the participation and questions of this morning. I just want to reaffirm 2 things. The number -- the first thing is that deleveraging is our priority. It is a complex environment to do it, but this is clearly the case. The disposal program is progressing well. We will not do something [ praising ] - in this respect to concrete transactions, but the prices are evolving positively. The second point is that we are -- we have the outperformance and the, let's say, positive evolution currently of the production, and that's why we have upgraded our guidance. The third is that we are preparing ourselves for uncertainties to continue. You have seen what we are doing on the energy side. We will do the same on flexibilization of the cost to address the volatility, in particular in Europe in case of a recession. And the last thing is that you are in [Technical Difficulty] and hope -- I hope you will be as many of you and interested by what we will present in the Capital Market Day and the Sustainability Day to show the ultimate potential of FORVIA and what we are doing in the meantime to secure this potential, which for me means in fact, balance sheet management. Thank you very much. Have a good day.
Operator
operatorLadies and gentlemen, thank you for joining the conference. It's now over. You may disconnect your telephones.
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