freenet AG (FNTN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thanks to all of you for joining this Friday morning here, to our today's results call. You have all received the document yesterday night, and we all display them in parallel. I think you've seen overall, the Q3 results are really, really nice. We are on the upper end of our intended performance. We're doing really well across over. I will give you a couple of more details, most importantly, for the sustainability of the business model and the growth in results is the development in the subscriber base, year-on-year, we have plus 226,000 subscribers across the two segments. EBITDA is now EUR 362 million, if you would just add the performance of Q4 2021, we would cross the EUR 470 million line. This is why we stated that we will be in the upper half of the current guidance with a nine months growth of EUR 22.4 million in EBITDA and also free cash flow is doing accordingly much better. The good thing is -- but the good thing is that 50% of the net add growth comes from the TV segment. If we look at the year-on-year basis, we are more and more in a position that TV is not only an adjacent business but becomes a real strong growth driver at the one hand, but also in terms of volume becomes a more significant piece of freenet. This is what we always intended. This is the plan, and we made no secret out of the fact that we believe that midterm, our IPTV activity is the growth driver for the future. As I said, overall, plus 226 million on a quarterly basis during the third quarter, we have gained 62,500 net adds split into positive postpaid positive FUNK and FLEX, positive waipu and a negative from freenet TV, which is according to what we have predicted and also what we have planned in our books. waipu.tv was growing by 203,000 over the last 12 months, where freenet TV lost 102,000. So overall, a growth of plus 101,000 subscribers in the TV access business. Going one step further on the next page, on the mobile subs, as we said, positive development there as well. I think overall, the third quarter showed the resilience of the business model. Also, I can say that across all channels, we saw a good performance, meaning MediaMarktSaturn is doing very well in the third quarter after a period of intermediate lockdowns and shortage in supply, they have proven that as soon as supply specifically with Samsung is there, they are up and running, we think, overall, the worries about Media-Saturn are not applicable They're doing perfectly well, and they're improving also their back-end systems logistics, et cetera. So that we foresee a good future there. On the ARPU side, we would consider this as a stable development with the typically small changes that are either seasonal or depend on the mix of tariff plans as well as subsidized postpaid contracts or SIM-only postpaid contracts. The one important number that we watch very consequently is how many of those transactions, and transaction is always new customer acquisition as well as renewal, how many of those are in our captive channels. So under our full control of the entire customer journey. And this ratio was in Q3 at 70%, which is the level that we intend to have the split is a good one. And we see specifically in the renewals that this is even higher and which brings us additional gross margin because we do not pay as much commission to third party when we do renewals as we do on the new customer acquisition. On Page 7, we have -- the team has put out a nice graph, which I think illustrates very well the development of waipu.tv now up around 872,000 subscribers. And I can indicate that we're crossing the next line of 900 within these days. I think we have predicted for the full year, anything across 920 or a bit more. We are absolutely on track there. The mechanics on CRM, the mechanics on content marketing on the mainly web-based acquisition, it's working really well. Stacks are still on a reasonably low level or the same as our spendings for above-the-line marketing we would be ready to spend more, but the team tells us that they still work on a very marginal optimization, which I think is in favor of our bottom line results and the fact that we have been able to grow plus 51,000 in the quarter shows that we are not underspending, but we have a good balance of growing as well as taking care about cash flow and EBITDA. This positive development on waipu leads to a positive net add number, as I said before, in the segment. We were always very transparent that DVB-T2 is in terms of subscriber slowly decreasing business. We've lost about 30,000 in the quarter, which is the equivalent of 4% of the subscriber base. Over the year, it's just above 12%. This is what we have expected. Partially, this will be compensated from a margin perspective with price increase for vouchers from September and then from December, mainly on direct debit customers. Full effect will only hit in 2023 and will compensate the loss in subscribers in parallel Media Broadcast, B2B business is doing really nicely. So overall, Media Broadcast is delivering a very constant flatline of revenues and of margin and also the outlook of the next two or three years, which we have only seen this week from the management team, is very promising, even though the development on the private end. So for the first -- fourth quarter, and we are in the middle or we are already -- yes, we are just not yet in the middle but close to the middle of the quarter. Some general remarks, energy cost. Yes, we envision some increases next year, but more in the one-digit million range. Personnel costs are overall stable according to our plan. We have done a higher increase to the individual than we did last year, but that was already in the budget. We have also informed the personnel this week that for the lower wage groups, we will give an extra payment in December that is already also reflected in the numbers. We think we need to support our people and show corporate responsibility towards the staff. And we -- also a question that we have had a couple of times this year was whether we see more bad debt. It is still on a reasonable good level. So all our own research and all public domain research tells us that the telco and the streaming are not suffering from the inflation/from the lower realized income. I think the fact is in Germany that spending in restaurants and in entertainment is significantly going down, so people are spending more time at home. And this is when they use our services. So I think we have -- well, if I would be trying to impress you, I would say we have chosen the right field, but we are happy to be in the right field. I think that this is a more fair statement. On mobile, we do not see significant changes in the competitive environment. There is no real aggressive moves, we have seen Vodafone coming out last week with a couple of short-term promotions, but this did not affect the market in reality and on mobile, we don't see any specific changes to the existing portfolio across all the four competitors. So we expect development in the order of magnitude, same size of Q3. So for the second half, a total of plus 75. The DSL launch is a bit delayed due to IT capacity, no big change to the numbers overall. I think, up and running then in January will be -- give us a bit more time on the 4 preparations. On waipu.tv, we have disclosed -- we have told you last quarter that we have signed this deal with Deutsche Glasfaser, Deutsche Glasfaser is now planning for the conversion or the migration of the first 80,000 subscribers that they currently run with Sachem set-top boxes. Those will be replaced during the year, January and February, they also start to market our original waipu.tv project -- product into their customer base. And they have last week repeated that they intend to have six million connected homes by the end of 2027. So if we assume for this 5-year period, if we assume that we get at least a 25% to 30% share within their base, then we're talking about 2 to 3 million subscribers midterm, which I think is a good outlook. We have also agreed with Roku to be on all their devices that they put now out in the German market. The integration was actually paid by Roku. They have done their homework. The first devices are now delivered into German retail and we have -- we are still expecting from January to get live football from DAZN into waipu, which will then pay-TV channels within the normal EPG. I think that is a great opportunity because we will also learn how we can monetize short-term opportunities, individual games but also monthly subscriptions with them. And as I said, media broadcast in a good way. So overall, I'm really confident that we're doing well there are here and there, obviously, also some pushbacks. But overall, we can overcompensate them and show, I think, a very satisfying growth and Ingo will give you some more financial details on this development.

Yes. Good morning, everybody, from my side. I think starting with the group financials on Page 10. I can only confirm what Christoph already summarized. I think it's a very promising situation. What we see here we see very strong revenues. We see strong gross profit. We see strong EBITDA. And so what we see is that the business is very resilient to the macroeconomic environment. And what -- I think what makes me happy is that we grow in both segments on the one hand, in TV and in mobile, and on the other hand, we grow on a gross profit base. And in addition, we are still very sensitive on the cost side. So I think in all dimensions, it looks quite -- looks quite well. Moving to the mobile business. Turning to the revenues. I think, again, a slight increase in the service revenue postpaid. What I also want to mention, even if we do not focus on the revenues of no-frills and prepaid. In addition here, we see an increase of these revenues. So they are not in focus. But definitely, we earn some money with this business, too, and we are happy to increase the service revenues here. What you also do see is that we increased the share of the hardware business. Again, here, this has only a low profitability. But all in, it helped to increase the revenue in the third quarter. Gross profit, I already commented is fine. On the cost side, bad debt is still on a very low level, and all provisions are unreleased so they are still in the books. And therefore, I do also foresee no big effect on the debt front, even if the environment would change to worse. Turning the page to the KPIs, strong growth on customer base already discussed from Christoph, a stable ARPU. On the digital lifestyle side where we had some difficulties with regulation in the first half of the year. We have the first quarter now where we see an increase of revenues quarter-to-quarter. So hopefully, it will be possible to transmit the positive development into the fourth quarter now. On the media side, Page 13, here also, revenues are increasing based on the increase of customers in the IPTV business. On the gross profit side, I think, let me start with the freenet TV side. What we do see on the freenet TV level is we still see a stable gross profit and a slightly increase in EBITDA. So I would say this confirms that it is possible for us to compensate the loss of customers with the increases of pricing. So all in, from my point of view, also a very positive picture here. In the B2B business, where we do a lot of this digital radio business it was also possible to increase the gross profit. The effect on the EBITDA is even bigger in the B2B business as we were very cost-conscious here, and this definitely helps to increase the EBITDA here. On the waipu.tv side, a very strong development of the gross profit based on the growth in customers on the other side, slower growth on the EBITDA side. I think we already mentioned in the last call that we increased the marketing expenses here. I think it makes a lot of sense to invest here, the money what we do have at the moment to increase the customer base. And we already saw the positive effects in the customer base on these investments. Free cash flow, Page 14, I think no big surprises definitely from my point of view, it will be possible to reach the upper end of the guidance range. This is something where we already see something like EUR 60 million of free cash flow in the fourth quarter, I think, would not be a surprise. I think we have to wait and see. There are still some investments outstanding. Therefore, it's a little bit a question how the CapEx will develop in the last quarter. But at the end of the day, if you have a delay in investments, it is difficult to invest the money in the quarter then if you have not done during the year. So I think the CapEx will be slightly lower than we originally forecasted. But all in, I would say, very strong free cash flow. We could reduce the factoring figure further to EUR 35 million. So all in, a very positive picture. Moving to the balance sheet ratios, I think I can only repeat what I did in -- what I told you in the other quarters, a very healthy picture is something what we see here, even with the depreciation of the brand value. We have an equity ratio of nearly 40%. The leverage, including leases, is 1.8 and the only bank debt leverage is only 1.1, so it's a very positive picture. I think if you look into the maturities out of our financing, I think during '22 and '23, definitely, there is no obligation to refinance anything in 2024. It is possible to use the revolving facility, what we do have of EUR 300 million to bridge the necessity to do a financing. But I think we are not in a hurry here to refinance, so we can choose a good window. And I think first timing of the first part, maybe at the end of '23, but I think we have to wait how the markets develop. We are not in a stress here. And yes, I think we have the time and definitely we have enough time to find a good window here to refinance what is necessary to refinance, which is not in the deck this time, but I would like to mention is that we still stay to our -- stick to our promise to pay out 80% of the free cash flow as a dividend. And I think by definition, you see increasing free cash flow. Therefore, you can expect an increased dividend. I think this is very obvious. I think we were asked by some investors in the last week, if there would be a problem in the ability to pay the dividend as we do have the depreciation in the brand. Here, I would like to clarify because the ability to pay a dividend is based on local GAAP and in local GAAP, we do not have the depreciation of the brand. And therefore, from my point of view, no problems in the ability to pay the dividend or what we plan to pay. On Page 16, it's just to show the guidance again. I think what is important is we do not have any change in the figures, is the plan where we forecast that it will be possible to reach the upper half of the guidance in EBITDA and free cash flow. Some of you already interpreted it as an increase of the guidance. Yes, definitely not totally wrong. And I think we are good on track here to reach it. So all in, also from the financial side, a very positive picture after the third quarter and a very positive forecast for the end of the year and also for the upcoming years. Therefore, I finish here and hand back to the operator, I would ask you to start the Q&A.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Polo Tang from UBS.

I have two. So the first question is on Slide 6, where you outlined the proportion of gross adds coming from captive channels versus non-captive channels. But if I look at the nine-month chart, is shows a step down in the percentage from 76% last year to 71% this year. So can you talk about what's causing the decline? And what do you expect for the longer-term trend? My second question is really just about some color in terms of 2023. So you've obviously outlined a number of headwinds for next year in terms of energy and wage inflation. However, despite these headwinds, do you think you can still grow EBITDA in 2023?

I was trying to explain on the captive channels that we think the 70% ratio is the one that we think is a good one and a healthy one. The rundown from last year is basically the change from lockdowns, specifically in MediaMarkt and in free dealership. There we had more online, we had more captive, which means more customer care, more outbound and inbound telemarketing and more owned online, this is the change. The 70% that we showed in the Q3 is kind of our internal target and that's met. And I would expect coming seasons to be around the 70% plus/minus. On a quarterly basis, there's also a bit volatility on what the mix of renewals and new customer acquisition. On the EBITDA, well, I think the fact that we have a higher customer base at the end of the year than we do at the beginning of the year. And our outlook on energy increases, inflation cost, personnel cost, et cetera, et cetera, would suggest that we definitely will be growing in EBITDA. I think it's too early to state the range, but we will definitely grow the EBITDA next year.

Yes. And I think may I add that we are fully on track to reach the midterm targets what we presented last year with more than EUR 520 million in 2025, so I would say we are slightly ahead of the plan at the end of 2022. And therefore, we have some room. But I think this energy cost topic is it's less expensive than we stated in the call at the end of Q2 because we all know now that the government is supporting also companies. So I do only expect small headwinds from the energy cost side below EUR 5 million definitely and on the personnel side, and maybe there will be a further increase of 3% to 5%. But I think definitely also from my side, I can only confirm that we are just in a budgeting process, but I would also expect an increasing EBITDA.

The next question comes from Martin Hammerschmidt from Citi.

The first one is, as we're approaching the end, can you give us an update of sort of where you see contract negotiations with MNOs are going? Have you sort of seen a change in their attitude in terms of higher demand for your services, lower demand? Or if you can just give us an update on how things are going? And then on the Media Broadcast side, you indicated sort of 3% to 5% EBITDA growth for this year. If I think about sort of the -- sort of the various building blocks, so you have a price increase coming soon. And I think you also have a bit more growth in the B2B part. And so just now you were talking about sort of flat line development. Can you maybe sort of elaborate a little bit on what you mean with flat line, if I think about all those growth drivers as I was under the impression so that you can grow EBITDA slightly in Media Broadcasting next year.

Yes. If I may say the Hammer, as you are mentioned in the Citi, in the daily Citi update. Well, thanks for the topic. I've actually missed it a bit in my presentation. During this quarter, I think there were two main things, which are important with the network operators. One was that we found finally an agreement with Deutsche Telekom let's call it, a multiyear agreement with a common sense on what the goals and targets are, what potential incentives are. This is unusual because in the past, it was always on an annual basis, which was reducing our way or our ability to do planning and to do really a change in acquisition mix. So that is very positive relationship to the current DT German management is really exceptional compared to the past. So great success for our colleague Rickmann Von Platen, but we all enjoyed it and having longer lasting or midterm binding agreements now with all the three operators is something that we haven't had before. We have also met the new German CEO of Vodafone and the signaling was clearly that he is happy with the relationship. He thinks that we should not only continue but also intensify. He is fully supportive to us having access to his cable network. We also spoke to whatever the plan in fiber cooperation that if this is really a product, still far away from it, but he would always want to include us there in the marketing and sales area. So I haven't thought so little about network operators than I did the last six, eight weeks. No worries at all, really good relationships. A good balance of understanding and also a good understanding of the mutual dependencies, but also the mutual opportunities. On the Media Broadcast, maybe we -- you kind of listened to the fine to the single individual words. You said a little growth, single little growth is going to be there in EBITDA, we talking about 1%, 2% a year, which I would call a stable line because a million is easily eaten up by a little hit back or a little delay in some contracts or in some service deliveries, et cetera, et cetera. So it's not contradicting. It was not contradicting the fact that, yes, it is going. I mean if we see a positive momentum there, we still have to acknowledge that 40% of the staffing is beyond 50 years old. There is still -- these people have been with Deutsche Telekom, they are compared to our average salary, better paid, wages are high. There is an agreement with Verdi on regular increases, and this is also demanding the management on some gross margin increases. So yes there is a slight growth, but it is not something which is worth mentioning with the big picture.

Yes. The nickname is starting to stick. If I can have a follow-up question. The multiyear agreement, is that sort of on the similar conditions that the annual agreements are or is sort of the margin profile a bit worse because it's sort of a longer-term agreement of how we think about it.

Well, I mean, yes, I cannot -- I can obviously not disclose the details, but the character of annual agreements is -- if I put it in, let's say, harsh words, the annual agreement from the network operator side is driven by the thought that they could steer in very much detail what we're doing. So -- and I'm going 10 years back in history, they said you are supposed to sell so and so many tariffs with this and so and so many new customers with 1 gigabyte, and we want you not to include flat rates on minutes and so on and so forth. And they gave us tons of monthly, quarterly and annual incentives and sanctions on the mix. That's the philosophy or was always the philosophy behind these short-term agreements. Whereas in the mid or long term, I would call it, midterm, if it's crossing maybe two or three years, it's like where do we want to be in three years? What is our cost of goods or what is what would be -- what they net -- their net income, if they take our payment on cost of goods minus their investment in bonuses and supportive payments on commissions. So they say we want to grow with you. We want to grow our gross margin with you. What can you contribute? And what do we need as a support. And then we agree on kind of like a split on the overall growth. So the character is or the philosophy behind this and the sentiment behind the contract is extremely different. If we do the percentage lines, then maybe they are more or less the same, but we are not under pressure of meeting quarterly results to make the overall margin, but we can compensate over a quarter, we can also delay something. So I think it's a matter of -- or it's a signal of mutual trust and the willingness to work together on midterm plans. And it also includes commitment from the operator side to give us access on all the technologies and new ideas that they have.

Francesca Schild from BNP Exane Paribas.

And I just got two questions on the clarification, if that's all right. So firstly, on the competitive environment in mobile. So I know you've already touched on it and your net adds remained strong. So maybe you could just elaborate a bit more what you're seeing in terms of the environment? And secondly, on fixed line broadband. Can you just give us an update on your plans for product offering here? And then thirdly, as I said, it was more of a clarification, but the line cut out briefly. Can you just talk us through the net add opportunity at waipu.tv next year? So how many subscribers do you expect to move across? Yes, perhaps you could just clarify on that.

Yes. Thank you, for sure, I can. Well, I think competitive environment it's kind of a repetitive statement. I think everybody is cooling down a bit and everybody has understood that it's not worth doing significant discounts because it's a very short term -- has a very short-term impact. So I think overall, what we are seeing, why are we all doing well because we move prepaid customers into postpaid customers. This is why everybody shows the net growth. And base, what we clearly see is that maybe I would consider the sole difference or the sole changes over the past two, three years is that online business is more stable. Everybody accepted it. Also online, you cannot push growth significantly because it becomes really expensive. I mean you're paying them more for search engines, you're paying more for display ads, you're paying more for social. So I think it is more of a rationale view on the online channel, maybe that is also triggering overall softer promotion environment. And then Deutsche Telekom, they're playing on full scale on their [indiscernible] offer, so fully integrated Vodafone is trying to do that, but they are a bit behind because of their missing IPTV offering and the kind of like situation with cable being not super competitive now with new technologies. And so on the one hand, we get the fiber guys coming in at the same time that DOCSIS upgrades are not working so well. This is, I think, what we saw the last few quarters on fixed line access in Vodafone. On the second question, the proposition of our freenet Internet is -- we're starting right now with fixed -- with mobile fixed asset only and we will add fixed line asset access in Q1 and then during the year of 2023, we will also integrate cable. And on a local scale, we will also cooperate with some of the fiber guys. Okay. Sorry. So I don't know when I broke up. So I repeat the statement on freenet Internet. Freenet Internet is meant to be excess, what is the English word? Immune. So it -- we -- the end consumer would download the app, they will tell us where they live, what they need, and then we would decide on the access technology, whether it's fixed line, whether it's copper, whether it's cable or midterm. When it's fiber right now, it's fixed mobile only. But in the course of the coming year, we will add the normal DSL line and VDSL and then we will add cable. The price will always be the same, and that is the promise to the end consumer. Don't worry about the access. We will take care. And even in the case where we feel that you would need to have change from one to the other technology as an end consumer, you would not recognize. It's always the same price. That is the visionary -- the vision and the philosophy, right now, it's limited. But as I said, in 2023, we will have a minimum two, but most likely three access technologies in parallel. On waipu.tv/ your question on Deutsche Glasfaser, as far as we know, Deutsche Glasfaser has about two million households that they serve with access today, out of those close to 100,000 have also a TV service with Deutsche Glasfaser, this is based on an old technology of Sachem with set-top boxes. And this -- I think it's 84,000 customers will now get a replacement of their old Sachem boxes with our waipu access dongle and the waipu remote control, they will be informed that they pay the same price as before, but they have a much better service, much better product, and they can extend the product with the service of waipu. It is not a Deutsche Glasfaser powered by waipu product. It's a straightforward waipu product. So first step is we migrate this 80-something thousand in parallel, any new customer acquisition that Deutsche Glasfaser does will contain or will tell the people that they have a fabulous TV product. And the third wave will be that they do the same marketing and CRM into their existing customer base. So I think that Deutsche Glasfaser during the course of the next year, we'll have -- well, definitely more than 100,000, anywhere between 100,000 and 300,000 subscribers of waipu will generate up to 300,000 subscribers. It's actually hard to tell. They have a great marketing team. There is daily conference calls, how to make best effort. Nobody has really done big scale migrations on this. This is why I'm still a bit reluctant on a more precise statement on the volume. But I've seen the packages, I've seen the promotions, I've seen the letters that are supposed to send, they will start in the first two weeks of January with small test sizes in order to immediately optimize, but they are very keen on it and they see it as a real competitive advantage compared to any other existing fiber providers. We are talking to many other fiber providers in parallel, and we for sure hope that role this DGF deal becomes a role model and a good example for the others and that also they might be attracted for our service.

I will now move to our next question from Titus Krahn from Bank of America.

Just three short ones. Firstly just following up on the previous ones. Maybe first on waipu.tv, given that you're kind of growing very nicely now, probably ahead of initial expectations. And I mean, you're just -- your statement just now implies maybe even 400,000 or more net adds in the next year. And I just wondered, when would you kind of think you're able to give an updated medium-term update on the outlook for net adds in the segment? And second question just on your loss allowances, which I think provided roughly EUR 2 million EBITDA boost this quarter again. How should we think about them going forward? Do you think you're now about kind of at the right level? I know that you're pretty confident on bad debt, and German consumer at the moment? And maybe a third quick one, just also following up on the fixed broadband or general broadband offer, which you have launched already in the fixed wireless access. How is it trading right now? How many net adds do you roughly see per month, a quarter? And generally, in your medium-term guidance, how many net adds until 2025 have you actually calculated or assumed when looking ahead?

Well, thank you. I mean on the first one, on the waipu numbers. I think it will be -- we will definitely be in a much better position by the end of Q1 because we have then experienced not only the DGF, but also one of the smaller migrations, and we will come out with, I think, a more detailed plan and also midterm outlook. Most recent reasonably with the Q1 results, the latest or with the preliminary results early March. I think that is fair. The 400,000 that you have just mentioned are not worrying me. I think that is definitely the ambition I would have from today, but I would not want you to consider it as already an indicator. But I think the logic that you -- the equation that you have opened up is very much in line with what I would say. On the broadband, we're currently talking of a run rate, which is still below 10,000 a month. And once again, we need to wait for the fixed line product, which will be launched in January, so that we can really test the full proposition of the product. And I think it's the same here with the preliminary results early March, we will be in a much better shape to give you also an outlook for the full year. And on the bad debt, I hand over to Ingo.

Yes. On the bad debt, we have a lot of early indicators what we follow. And so what we see is that definitely there is an increasing development in the bad debt for the next month, but we do not see a real hard change, a big change. This is nothing what we foresee at the moment. I think it's still a question how the households will develop. And so it's a little bit -- it's questionable how it will develop. But what we definitely can say is we built some provisions in the past, so even if it would develop worse than we expect, there would be the provision to compensate it. So from my point of view, I do not see any EBITDA risks from the bad debt at the moment.

Everything very clear. Looking forward to the results then.

We will now move to our next question from Usman Ghazi from Berenberg.

I got a few questions, please. Just a couple of housekeeping questions first. Ingo, I just wanted to clarify, when you say that you don't have any obligation to refinance, I mean are you just saying that, look, I mean, the earliest refinancing is late 2023, so you have time? Or is it that there are some options within the promissory notes that mean that you can just roll the debt over rather than refinance in 2023. I just want you to clarify that. The other question was on waipu. I think in your conversations with investors, you've been highlighting that internally we're discussing whether there's an opportunity to spend a bit more in marketing in 2023 to boost the growth at waipu. But today, it seems like you are -- at least the operational guys at waipu don't see a need for this. Can I just clarify that, that is -- that is the case? And just how that correlates with your outlook for EBITDA because obviously, if you decide to spend some exceptional marketing for waipu then EBITDA growth next year might not materialize. So it's just how those two comments would tie together would be helpful. And then the final question was just on the dividend. This year's free cash flow obviously has been, at least the reported free cash flow is being impacted by several one-off factors, including obviously, the CapEx and the settlement of the government and then your decision to use the additional headroom to pay off a factoring liability quite significantly. So I mean but when you think about the dividend payment of 80% out of free cash flow, are you minded to pay it out of the reported free cash flow? Or would you say that, look, that's a bit unfair to its shareholders because the reported free cash flow is being impacted by a few exceptionals plus our decision to pay off the factoring liability cost, actually we should look at more of an underlying level of cash flow to determine the 80% payout.

So, Usman, maybe I start with your first question. And I think definitely, we have an obligation to repay but we do not have an obligation to refinance because we have cash on the balance sheet, and we have the revolving facility line. So that -- it has to be repaid. And on the dividend and the free cash flow question, Yes. I think we have some one-offs this year. You are totally correct. And all what I can forecast at the moment is that we pay out 80% of the free cash flow. This is what we promised. I do not expect any change in it. And definitely, if we would not have one-offs next year, then you can forecast an increasing dividend. I think it is early now because we have not budgeted the following years. We have to see what special effect could happen and therefore, I think, yes, basically, I would also expect with increasing EBITDA, what we forecasted, with increasing free cash flow, what we forecasted, I think I would also forecast an increasing dividend. I do not see any reason at the moment to change our financial policy.

Yes. I mean -- if I may add there, I think that is ultimately what we are. We always start with it, promise this, and we also -- we have a financial policy given the overall interest environment, the fact that the equity markets are changing from interest rates, et cetera, et cetera. For sure, we -- I can assure you that we will also discuss the best allocation of free cash flow. But as Ingo said, that would include -- if we would change anything there, then it would mean that we change our financial policy. And I think this is nothing at this stage, it is nothing that we can decide or do overnight. We need to see what the first quarter brings and also how other companies act up on the changes. Finally, on the waipu question. I think you have very well listened to also all the comments. I was trying to say -- during the budgeting process right now, we include two or three scenarios for waipu. One is a scenario where they spend more in order to fasten growth. But we would try to do it during the first half of the year in order, a, to take as much as the -- from the revenues and margins also in the calendar year, that is one scenario. So you push hard during specifically second quarter, spend more, but your payback is -- the majority of the payback would already be within the calendar year of 2023. And the other scenario is more the one that is currently management they're addicted to is we have a continuous flow, we never overspend, and we stick to a specific ratio of subscriber acquisition cost and payback time. But both the good thing about those two scenarios is that for the overall budget and the EBITDA outlook in 2023, the impact will be very minor specifically also because acquisition costs are expanded over the life time period. So I think this enables us to do various scenario -- to think about various scenarios. But that also indicates that we will not significantly increase above the line spending, but then can be allocated with subscriber acquisition costs. So it's not a contradicting idea, but it's a scenario thinking to optimize.

Our next question comes from Adam Fox-Rumley from HSBC.

Two quick ones, I think, please. The first one is a little bit of a follow-up to Usman. And just thinking about the CapEx budget this year, things like the HQ upgrade are in that number. I think you mentioned that you might struggle to spend all the money that you've previously been thinking about. So I'm just wondering, as we look into 2023 whether there are big projects like that or the same projects that carry on that we should just make sure we think about when thinking about next year's free cash flow? And then secondly, given the scale of the opportunity that you're talking about here with waipu and the big customer numbers that potentially are up for grabs, I guess I thought it was just worth revisiting whether or not there are any variable costs to be aware of if the base were to grow to the degree that you were talking about there. I mean thinking about things like, I don't know, server capacity or material cost items that aren't necessarily just sales and marketing or staff costs to think about?

Well, the first one is on the CapEx. I mean, reality is simple things that we had to change 500 stores with the outside street-side flags, but we couldn't get hold of the material because well, they have shortage on stupid metal frames. And I think that is what we're seeing all over the place. We were trying to expand parts of the DAB coverage, we could not do it this year because [indiscernible] was not able to deliver the chipsets, respectively, the server capacities and the service as such. So I mean, these things are shifting, I guess, that is the case for any company in the world. So even if we would then suddenly get delivered everything in January, we expect the same, in next year the same delays. There is no reason to believe that this is a sudden change. So I think CapEx is going to be at the same level as next year. No big changes. There is no exceptional projects. There's no exceptional product. It's just an ongoing -- the ongoing refurbishment, the ongoing maintenance and the ongoing investment in self-developed software pieces and installations. So I would -- if I was modeling it, I would just keep it on a similar level, Ingo.

I think the only thing what you have to deduct is the renovation of little stores, of the office of the building, what we had this year. So I think we should see the CapEx again on a normalized level, but we -- definitely is correct, we had some phasing or postponement effect, but we have not finished here. But definitely, I do also not see the big special events in 2023, which should lead to a lower CapEx.

Yes. And the second question was on whether there are positive or negative scaling effects or fixed cost jumps if we have a significant higher growth in waipu, no, it's not. We have 68 people, whether we have 1 million customers or 1.5, there's been no impact, because it's a software-based service. The big variable costs are the delivery, but including the server, but that stays -- it's variable, it stays the same. You have neither positive nor negative scaling effects. And the biggest chunk of cost is cost per subscriber or content cost per subscriber and they are variable as well. There are some scale effect on personnel by definition. Nothing that you could -- we don't need an extra data center. We don't need brutally more infrastructure. It may well be that if we would now go, well, if I will compare today's business with the 3 or 4 million subscriber business, then there is CapEx included. And there would also be a question whether the equipment if we sell set-top boxes or we equip the end consumer free of charge for set-top boxes that would end in the CapEx. But once again, I mean, these devices are EUR 25. So even if you would take 100,000, you're still talking about a number of EUR 2.5 million, which I think in the overall CapEx is manageable. This is why I think you can assume more or less midterm on a similar level.

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Yemi Falana from Goldman Sachs.

Congratulations on the quarter. I think one of the underlying messages that came out of today's results was the very strong customer growth that we've seen across the various businesses. It would be really interesting to get your perspective on the postpaid net add trends. And just ultimately, where those customers have come from, what you view the sustainable kind of net add trajectory and the share take opportunity here as really interested to know if you think the value segment is potentially expanding in recent quarters. So any color there would be super helpful. Secondly, on the waipu.tv side, you've laid out some clear levers to better customer growth going forward, whether that's Deutsche Glasfaser partnership or otherwise. Kind of how should we think about that kind of in terms of your customer ambitions on a 1-year view, clearly the kind of longer-term opportunities there, and adoption in the market is rising, but kind of what's the kind of base case for next year would be super helpful. And then maybe finally, are there any kind of puts and takes around the EBITDA profile into next year? So you laid out the 2 cases from the waipu.tv management team in terms of investment in the growth opportunity that you see longer term. In that second case scenario, what would the outlook be from an EBITDA perspective? And do you think kind of broadly speaking, there would need to be any kind of consensus revisions on that basis?

Yes. Thanks for those questions. I think postpaid net adds, I would expect next year on a similar level than this year. As I pointed out, I guess, it's -- basically it's coming out of the former prepaid segment. I mean we don't increase the population in Germany. And since all the operators and service providers all the 5 players in the market kind of report growth or at least flat numbers. So it comes out of prepaid. It comes out of double and triple usage, it comes out of additional devices that individuals take. So I would expect for next year similar to this year, as I said. On the EBITDA, I think it is -- I can just confirm our ambition is, and the first indicators on the budget show that the entire management team, not only the two of us, but the entire executives agreed that a level of 2% to 3% growth is a minimum of our ambition and it shows the strength of the business and the underlying aspects of growth in customer base, et cetera, et cetera, support that. So no matter whether we do more or less growth in waipu in these organic matters then I would expect that next year's EBITDA will be higher than this year. No matter what this year is for having 70, 75 or 78 or whatever. That is definitely happening. Whether the step-up from one year to the other, it's maybe a bit lower, but as Ingo said, I mean we are ahead of the curve for the 5-year guidance. So -- but we would not allow ourselves to have a drop in EBITDA next year or the year after in the current setup. That is something that we promised. That is something that motivates all the individuals and that is also the sentiment in the company. I think even the, let's say, the normal people out there in the shops, they feel that an annual growth is something that shows success. It's confirming the effort, it creates energy and motivation and we will continue to do so. So -- and on the EBIT -- on the waipu customer base, I said to one of the previous questions, I think an equation giving us 300,000 or 400,000 net adds next year is something that well very much fits my first view, but we will be way more concrete in March next year because we then for the first time have done the exercise of migrating customers from one place to the other. I mean we had the effect of this, Deutsche Glasfaser announcement was suddenly, some of the other players showed up, and started to talk to us, and hopefully crossing then in Q1, the 1 million subscribers is also changing the public notion within the industry. We were the ones that Netflix approached. We were the ones that Roku approached. So I think I expect at a certain stage, kind of on the end consumer word-of-mouth effect, but also in the industry, kind of a notion of this is a reasonable partner. And there is local city networks like NetCologne, like M-Net that do their own TV services right now. There is a dozen of those. Are they ready to change their internal supplier plans within the next two quarters. No, they're not. But they are now aware that there is a player that is doing much better than any other and whether this will be -- show a number effect on the subscriber numbers already next year or a little later, for this, this is too early to say. But once again, I promise to give way more detail in March.

Thank you very much. Look forward to your presentation in March.

As there are no further questions in the queue. I'd like to hand the call back over to our speakers for any additional or closing remarks.

Well, guys, thanks for your intense interviewing us. Thanks for my internal team to prepare this quarterly results so well. I hope to speak to all to you soon. And thanks for joining, and have a nice weekend.