Frontier Digital Ventures Limited (FDV) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Frontier Digital Ventures 2020 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Shaun Di Gregorio, CEO and Founder. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for calling in. A fair bit of news that was released to the market this morning, so consequently, we have a fair bit to get through this morning. I'll try and stay on point. And as usual, at the conclusion of my presentation, there'll be a Q&A session, which will be moderated by the call manager. I'm going to be referring to the document that is titled, Acquisition and 2020 Full Year Results Presentation, which was released to the ASX this morning. I'll give you turn page numbers, just so you know what I'm looking at. But fundamentally, it's to announce an acquisition that we've finalized overnight in Chile of a business, Yapo, which is the leading general classifieds portal in that market. And we'll talk to that acquisition shortly, and then we'll follow that with our full year results, which I'll guide you into an operational update and then the results themselves with a section there, which just talks to the outlook as we see it in the next little while. So referring back to that deck, I'm on Page 2. And you've seen our mission. We maintain our ambition. Our mission is to be the leading operator of the best online marketplaces in emerging markets. We're very focused on that outcome, and we've worked pretty diligently over the past 12 months to really accelerate that mission accomplishment as well. But needless to say, we still have a fair way to go. What made a significant difference that we announced this morning was an acquisition of Yapo. I'm going to go straight into Section 1 and talk to that acquisition. So I'm now looking at Page 5, which is total Acquisition Overview. Going to walk you through the business, 5 key points that we'll talk to this morning. So we have acquired 100% of the business in Chile. It's a market that we've looked at for some time for a number of years. As you appreciate, we've made acquisitions in Colombia recently and have our business InfoCasas that is right next door as well. So it's a part of the world that we lack, and we have maintained the fact that we lack the LatAm markets ex-Argentina and ex-Brazil, and Chile was really a piece of the puzzle that we've been looking at for some time, and we had an opportunity to acquire the business there, which we've done overnight. If you look into the business, I'm on Page 6, Yapo's a general classifieds. It's the leader in the market. What we were attracted to in the -- in this business was the fact that it has really strong vertical positions. So more and more, when you look at emerging markets, you've got to look at them in the context of transaction businesses or transaction-based platforms. We know that the classifieds model has served consumers and sellers really well, but we also know that, that model is evolving rapidly over the past couple of years. And increasingly, it's focused around the ability to provide a full transaction to a buyer and a seller, and that's what all of the companies in our portfolio are doing. We see a really critical opportunity in this business in that it's the leading general classifieds, but it also leads in the verticals. So we think that when you consider these markets as the ability to help consumers and sellers make transactions, Yapo is really well positioned. It only has one main competitor, and MercadoLibre has sort of pivoted to try and be an Amazon-style business, which is focused on new products, which really leads to general classifieds market open to Yapo. So those competitive dynamics, the brand strengthening the market, the potential upside we see in the fact that this business leads in the verticals made it a very attractive acquisition opportunity for us. It's fair to say that it's probably the last of the businesses that Adevinta were contemplating and exiting. And the fact that, again, it's kind of been left on the shelf of Adevinta in the same way that the other acquisitions were while Adevinta are very focused on betting down their eBay acquisition in Europe and focusing on the issues and the challenges that, that acquisition has brought them. We were opportunistic, and we were able to engage with that venture again off a lot of the goodwill that was developed in the acquisitions we made last year and engineered this transaction in the early part of this year. So it really does complete a pretty active period for us. In terms of the business itself, it had 26 million sessions in December. That actually makes up the most traffic site in our portfolio. The other compelling thing about this business and where we see a lot of upside is that its audience is primarily being driven organically, so that means that they're not paying for any traffic. That really demonstrates the strength of the brand in the market, the consumer recollection of the brand and the fact that it is being able to drive that level of traffic without having to buy it, that provides you with a really powerful platform in terms of what you can do with the business. A very mobile market, as you can appreciate, as most of these environments are. The business suffered from COVID a bit in 2020, like most, but from our perspective, that presented an opportunity to do a deal, again, where we think we've done it on really good terms. The business is profitable and growing. Heading into COVID, it's obviously suffered some headwinds. But again, we saw that more as opportunity than anything else. And that's very much the view that we've taken on all of these businesses and all of the opportunities that came our way in 2020 was to get yourself into a really strong position, to have your portfolio performing well to have a really strong balance sheet and then to be able to move quickly and opportunistically when acquisition opportunities came up, and we've been able to do this in a market that we think is going to be really valuable. If you move to Slide 7, just a little bit about the market itself. As I said, the market that we've lacked for a long time, sort of similar to Colombia when we were looking at the LatAm opportunities. Again, we've retained the ex-Brazil, ex-Argentina view of the market opportunities in South America. It's certainly one of the largest economies on the continent. And on a GDP basis, it's actually clearly one of the two wealthiest as well. So proximity for our other businesses, of course, it bulks right next door to Peru and Bolivia, as you can see on the map, and we'll get a lot of opportunities to look at scale and cost savings where we can utilize the relationship that those businesses can potentially have. So very much a market that we've been looking at for some time and really fits our footprint well. And it is an acquisition we're really pleased to be able to finalize overnight. If you go on to Slide 8, just gives you some -- a bit of a look at the business. As you can see, it was growing reasonably well into COVID, it hit some COVID headwinds like everything, but again, we saw that as opportunistic. We do view, when we're looking at the business, that there is some significant opportunities to grow the business. Like a lot of the Adevinta businesses, it hasn't had a lot of attention, it hasn't had a lot of love, and we see that as an opportunity to really develop aspects of the business that haven't been done before. So this business is fundamentally a classifieds business, and it has some advertising or [indiscernible] revenue as well. But the opportunity to start to move the business more towards the facilitation of transactions, that's a very big -- right across our group. All of our companies are moving toward providing consumers and sellers the ability to do more of the transaction. And generally, you're able to do that when you've got a really strong brand in the market and you're a really well-known brand. You're a brand that's highly recognized and highly used. And as a platform and you can get all of those factors together, a very dominant brand, tons of traffic, really strong positions in the verticals. But only having rolled out a classifieds model, it's a really powerful way to set yourself to say, hey, we can actually extend this product offering and start to participate more in the transactions of goods in that market, particularly in the verticals. There's clear opportunity to extend the product offering into property. The classifieds -- general classifieds always have really strong positions in automotive. And again, right across the general categories as well, but big opportunities in those 2 vertical categories when you're doing it with such a well-positioned brand to really extend the business model and facilitate more of the transactions. When you look at the pie graph there, the pie chart, you can see that the revenue spread across the business. But again, we sort of see this as the beginning of an opportunity in a business that has these sort of dynamics already in it. So we're very focused on working with the team to deliver on those. If you move to the next Slide 9, you'll just see that on a pro forma basis is we make a significant contribution to our business, along with the other acquisitions that we made through the course of 2020, which were all very sort of COVID-driven opportunistic deals that we were able to do. What that does, and Yapo, as I said, will be a significant contribution, is it really provides a pretty exciting platform in terms of our revenue profile as we head into 2021. Over on Slide 10, just goes to the strategic fit. And again, it's in a geography that we're very focused on. It has pre-market leadership, which is really, really important. It's going to be a significant contributor to our business on a revenue basis. We know that it was profitable heading into COVID. Many businesses have felt headwinds in COVID, but we can see a really clear path to not only revenue growth in this business by way of extending its product offering to be able to facilitate more of the transactions, but also we see it returning to profitability as the market generally improves, so we think that it's in a really interesting and opportunistic part of its journey. The strategic rationale, again, really strong, gets right next to the businesses we already have in that market and will allow us to have a really solid footprint in the LatAm markets as well. So it fits really nicely from our perspective. There's a quote there for me, I won't read it out or I sound a bit egotistical, but I'll let you dwell on that in the interest of time. So that's Page 11. As I move through the deck, I do want to get on to the operational update, which is quite important. Just looking at our business, you can see on Slide 13 now that our spread across the geographies is now much more even than it was than we probably spoke to you this time last year. We had a very big focus on monetary businesses, and what we've been able to do through the course of 2020 is diversify that revenue source, not only geographically, but we've diversified across a couple of the key verticals that we target as well. So these acquisitions have added much to our revenue profile. And when you look at the pro forma view, you get a bit of a sense of the significance of them and what our company is going to look like in 12 and 24 months from now as we see growth return in a post-COVID world, but also the impact of extending the product reach or the product offering for the new acquisitions in a much more aggressive manner than perhaps has been done by their current owners at the moment. So really good spread across our 3 target areas now. On 14, you'll see that what we've been clearly witnessed to over the past 12 months is a significant shift to digital. So we're seeing a significant increase in mobile sessions and in leads being generated and total sessions. What we have seen, just from an advertiser perspective, is COVID has impacted advertisers pretty heavily, so the number of advertisers is probably plateaued, but what we have seen is more and more consumers move to digital. And this has been something that's been spoken about, but we did want to provide some data just to point to the fact that it's a real trend, and we see it continuing through 2021 and beyond. It's -- consumer behavior significantly moved, and we've seen that in our portfolio. In 15, really just another way to look at the pre-pandemic kind of view versus what we're seeing now. We're seeing significant traffic return to the website. This is a trend that's ongoing, and we expect it to continue. Most of that is going to mobile, but we are seeing also really interesting movement by consumers who want to do more of a transaction than they were doing before. They want to go way past just looking at ads, and that's where a lot of the value is in these businesses. On Slide 16, one ambition we had at the beginning of the year was really to diversify our portfolio a bit. At the beginning of the year, we had already -- 12 months ago, we had a really heavy emphasis on probably 1 geography and 1 or 2 businesses. And part of our strategy this year was to spread that geographic revenue, and obviously, the spread up by segment a bit better as well. We'll always be biased toward the property vertical. We really like it. It's high-value. We still like automotive. We do see significant opportunities in the general classified and select markets now where they're really emerging as full transaction platforms. And if we think about these markets, and I think people have got to continue to think about these markets in this way that you're essentially now looking at digital platforms that have large consumer audiences that can provide consumers with transactions of goods and services and in this case, increasingly high-value goods and services, which is houses and cars, and that fits really well in that general classifieds category. So we think we've done a pretty good job of spreading the risk geographically and certainly spreading it a little more balanced way, still a fair emphasis on the property segment. I'm moving on the page just in terms of what we've down over the past 12 months. I looked at this list and thought, yes, we've been pretty busy. So COVID really provided companies with 1 or 2 parts that they could take, they could batten down the hatches and survive, and that can be a pretty unpleasant experience, but a necessity for some other companies. And I firmly put us in that category, moved really quickly early in the year, got our portfolio in order, got our balance sheet strengthened. And then we really saw it as an opportunistic period to increase shareholdings in our existing companies, which we were able to do in a number of instances, but also to look at new partnerships, which can extend the reach of some of our existing companies, the acquisitions, of course, that we've made and also some consolidations in a couple of our markets as well. So it's been a very active year for us. We've fundamentally reshaped our portfolio to put it on a really exciting and much more opportunistic platform. And add to that, we've finished 2020 and certainly even post this transaction, we maintained a really strong balance sheet which we think bodes well for the rest of the year. This slide here just around -- on 18 around strengthening the portfolio. I won't read those because we are on the clock a bit. But fundamentally, we see a lot of tailwinds now into 2021, particularly as we look into the back half of 2021, with vaccine rollouts, optimism returning, normal workplace behavior returning. And of course, this flows through to consumer behavior and their propensity to want to look at houses and cars and other groups on the unit. So we think we've set ourselves out of a really interesting 2020, got our portfolio in really good shape, making acquisitions that are going to be material contributors. They fit all of the strategic criteria that we lay out for those sorts of deals. And add to that, we see tailwinds now as COVID starts to be better managed in a lot of our markets. Just moving on to the 2020 results. I'm on Page 20 now. We signaled most of these in our quarterly, so there won't be a ton of new information at a headline level per se. But just to look at the bar chart, you can see that we had a kick out growth happening in 2020, albeit marginal. We're very pleased with that. If you look at the sort of 100% view, which is probably the most complete way to view the portfolio, you see that the bar charts on the left and the most valuable way to look at what we do is then to take the economic share of the portfolio, and that's represented on the right. You can see the $23.7 million in revenues for 2020. On a pro forma basis, it has been significantly higher. But again, I think that's more about building a platform to 2021 and beyond. I would remind people, of course, that our statutory results which are obviously very important, are probably the least instructive when it comes to understanding the progress of our business. We don't consolidate all of our portfolio, so that statutory view actually excludes business like Zameen, which is a significant revenue contributor and a significant EBITDA contributor as well. So we do point people back to that 100% view, number one; and then to look through that 100% view and look at the economic share view, which picks up in our 30% stake in that business. Over the page, if you look at the EBITDA performance, and again, this is on a portfolio basis, we managed to achieve a profitable period in 2020. And that's both on an economic share basis. Whichever way you look at it, our ambition was to have those pie charts land right about where they are by 2020. And we said that back in late 2016 into '17, that we had an ambition for our portfolio and some of the parts to be profitable in 2020. So we managed to achieve that goal, and we're pretty proud of that. In terms of the underlying business on Page 22, as you can see through COVID, we improved the trading performance of all but one of those businesses, and that was a marginal deterioration material. But if you look at that value, you can see that while we continue to obviously be focused on revenue growth, the opportunity to reduce cost through COVID and improve our EBITDA position is one that we took, and you can see the businesses right across -- have all improved their EBITDA performance through the period. This just sets you on a really good platform for 2021 and beyond. So what it says is everyone knows that 2020 is pretty tough to grow revenue, but what you could do was really recalibrate your cost base, improve your EBITDA performance. So when you head into 2021 and you get tailwinds out of COVID and the economic conditions improve more generally, you've got a really good platform to grow the business. And our focus over the next 24 months, of course, with these new acquisitions and -- is rapid revenue growth. We're really about growing the top line of the businesses, but doing it at a sustainable rate. And that's one mantra that we've always maintained. We want to grow our top line, that's our key priority, but we want to do it in a sustainable and responsible manner. We don't necessarily subscribe to the idea that you need to spend $1 on marketing to get $1 on revenue. And a lot of our businesses in our portfolio, we've been able to invest in to acquire, and they've generally been loss-making. And over a period of time, we're able to grow those businesses and turn them profitable. And that really is our MO. That's really our value-add in terms of how we view these portfolio companies. We look at opportunity, we see good market positions, we see good brands. We're able to work with the management teams of growing them more rapidly than they would have grown before we had acquired them and doing it on a much more sustainable basis than they've been able to in the past. And that's what we really see as our competitive advantage. When we can look at a business like Yapo, for example, we can see that in 2019, it was marginally profitable. It slipped back in 2020. We see that as a perfect opportunity to pronounce to buy the business, knowing that we can probably grow it faster than the previous owners and now we can do it on a more sustainable basis. And that evidence is written large right through our portfolio. So if you look on Slide 23, going over the page, just gives you a full breakdown on some of the numbers. Again, 2020 was pretty tough, but we do really feel like we've positioned ourselves really well for 2021 and beyond. And you see that when you look at the pro forma view of 2020. I've moved on to the outlook section. So this is Slide 25. Again, I'm not going to stop and read on these, but we have our clear mission is to becoming the leading operator of the best online marketplaces in emerging markets. There's many factors that play into that ambition. You can probably note by the fact we've been around a little while now, and you can see the sort of work we're able to do when we do acquire these companies. And of course, we do see a genuine opportunity to continue to build our business. We know that the smart money for us is to acquire more of the companies that we're very familiar with, the ones in our portfolio, the ones that we like and the ones that perform well. When we look at growth, we look at growing our existing portfolios, revenues and doing it on a sustainable basis. We then look at M&A opportunities. There are always going to be consolidations, which are the easiest, but certainly, adjacent geographies, like we've done in Chile and more recently in Colombia and Morocco and Tunisia and the market position of those businesses. So we're very clear-minded about our strategy. We're really excited about the next 24 months. We had a view last year that what we did over the 12 months from last year into this year was going to have a very significant impact on what our business was going to look like in 3 to 5 years from now. So we really look pretty optimistically over the next 24 months. There's a lot of opportunity in our portfolio to grow with tailwinds coming out of COVID, and we'll continue to be focused on those goals. When you look at 26, just to give you a sense of how we kind of view the businesses, sort of life cycle of businesses. And you can see how we sort of plot them. It means, obviously, significant business in size, revenue and contribution for us. But we do now have a group of 6 to 7 businesses that are now where Zameen was probably not that long ago. We're really focused on building and valuing those businesses and pushing them through this model, this classified 1.0 into a 2.0 world. And of course, if you look on Slide 27, we, of course, recognize that our responsibility is to deliver value for our shareholders. We think in terms of the phases that we're in there, we're right in the business build mode. We're building our portfolio, and we're really excited about that. We do also -- it's fairly obvious to us that down the track, there will be monetization opportunities, but we're 100% focused on building value in the portfolio that we've built over the last 5 years, and we'll continue to be focused on that. And the funny thing about these businesses is that if you run them really well, the monetization opportunities that you can see on the right side of Slide 27 tend to look after themselves. And we don't sit around worrying about those things. We focus all of our attention on building really good to great classifieds businesses in emerging markets that are increasingly now becoming full transaction services for their consumers. 28, if all of what I've said over the last half an hour comes together, we should see the graph to the right there, the FDV one mimic as something like the previous 2 businesses that I've run. So we are very focused on delivering shareholder value. And I know investors can remark that as a Founder, I'm still significantly vested in this business, so very aligned on that front. And we certainly see ourselves much closer to the beginning of our journey than the end. We really do genuinely aspire to be the leading operator of these marketplaces in emerging markets. We think there's a distinct gap in the market when you look at the very big players that are out there like Nashville's OLX and Adevinta and Axel Springer in Europe, we do really feel that we are leading the way in terms of our focus on emerging markets and getting market leaders in our portfolios as we really start to pronounce ourselves on the global stage vis-à-vis those larger competitors. The corporate overview on 29, I'm going to be brief pass because it's -- you can read that later. And then, of course, if you go to 30, we were added to the technology index recently. It was a milestone that we were very focused on, and that's been done. We would hope that on the rebalance of the ASX 300 in the not-too-distant future that that would aspirationally also be something that we could be added to, but we'll just run the business and that review of the ASX 300 will take care of itself. Further in the deck, there is an appendix. It just talks to the fact that we don't consolidate all of these entities. So when you look at our statutory accounts, I don't really give you a full view, and we keep reminding people of that and hence, while we talk to the economic share what we really focus on as being the best indicator of the value that's inside our portfolio. So at that point, that's been on half an hour. I'll now hand back to the moderator, who I understand will now facilitate any Q&A that might be on the call.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Anthony Porto from Morgans Financial.

Shaun, congratulations on the new acquisition. I guess if you look at the multiple less than 3x revenue, it's even lower than what you've bought the other assets from Adevinta from recently, and it's well below your own trading multiples. So I guess in the context of that, could you just explain the multiple you paid? And you did that a little bit, but just explain go through that. Second question, I guess, is your competition for Yapo in the real estate and auto verticals, I mean you mentioned the one large classified competition, but just how you see the competition in the actual verticals for that business? And then the third question would be, you put the traffic stats in there till December. I mean from what I'm seeing on similar, there's been a material acceleration in traffic in January for the majority of your sites. I guess maybe just comment on that. And you're having -- starting to have discussions with advertisers or -- and clients about spending more on the site and why they should be spending a lot more on the site? And then, I guess, does that dovetail into potential pricing increases that you can put through some of these businesses? That's probably it for now, I think, Shaun.

Yes. So I can remember the first question. You might have to remind me on the second one. First question is just the mechanics of the deal. So I don't know if you think following that the sell up Adevinta have got themselves into a bit of a pickle with the competition regulator in the U.K. that is sort of analyzing their deal to acquire eBay. Now that doesn't relate directly to Chile, of course. But what it does is put Adevinta in a position where they were increasingly trying to rationalize their portfolio and not acquisition had any impact on the competition issue in the U.K., but they did have an ambition to rationalize their portfolio so they could concentrate on eBay. We had contemplated in a very vague -- this acquisition last year and for a whole range of reasons, it wasn't included in that. And it was never more than a vague discussion, so there's nothing of any materiality as discussed this business last year. But we got into the earlier part of this year, and we kind of caught our breath and went back and looked at the business, and it's probably one that, all things being equal, we could have done last year. And for various reasons, it didn't happen. So it really was a business that when we approached the idea of acquiring it, we've established the multiples that we were prepared to pay. And they were established through the deal that we did last year. And that deal, we think, was done under conditions that really suited us. So we were able to go to the seller and say, we've set the mark here. This is what we will -- this is what we're willing to transact at. And from their side, again, it was an appealing pitch because we could offer deal certainty and we could offer the ability to complete. Adevinta also knew that we had cash on the balance sheet to do it. So from their perspective, it was a no risk deal as far as completion is concerned. It's fair to say when we did the deal last year that there was a large capital raise that was required to go with it. Now we were fortunate to have that money on the balance sheet, and we were able to approach this opportunity. And so well, this -- we can absolutely pay for this. That's evident, you know that. The benchmark is the deals that we've done. We can provide uncertainty, and we know that you've got other areas to focus on. So in that sense, Anthony, sort of all road lead to Rome, and we were able to negotiate the terms that the deal was done on. What was the second question, sorry?

The second question was just competition within the verticals. I mean you mentioned MercadoLibre as the other kind of large classifieds player, but just what you see in the verticals in the real estate and auto there?

Yes. So the -- in the horizontals, it's MercadoLibre that they're Amazon light now. They've changed their business significantly, which has really left open the competitive landscape in the general classifieds to Yapo. It was more competitive some time back, but it's actually opened up a bit. When you look into cars and houses, there's really one main operator in cars, and that's Chileautos. And after that, there's Autocosmos, but again, it's significantly smaller. In the property segment. There's probably 2 or 3 -- probably 2 actually sites that are significant, and we're well aware of them. But fortunately, the brand Yapo has and when you look into the traffic stats, it's actually leading both those key verticals. So we see opportunity there. Chile is a valuable market, and it's got some established players there in the verticals, but this business, Yapo really comes at it having not really focused much on the verticals, but that has clear leadership when it comes to the traffic to those verticals. So we see that as a pretty good launching pad where you can make a bit more ground into that vertical space. And the third question, Anthony, was?

Just on traffic in January. I mean, look, --, I'm looking at similar web, it's not always reliable. But it does show some reasonable acceleration in most of the businesses, I guess, your ability to monetize that. And are you having kind of pricing discussions with some of these advertisers?

Yes. January, it's always generally a good traffic month. It's always bouncing out of the Christmas, New Year break. And it's also 31 days, which is -- gives you a little bit of a longer month compared to some. So you always do get a natural bump in January. And again, of course, we welcome that to the extent that generally alone gives you pricing power, it obviously doesn't, but the long-term trend, which you saw in the deck there, we are seeing more consumers generate more leads and make more inquiries off the same number of advertisers than we were pre-COVID. So the number of advertisers haven't changed a lot in the market, but you are seeing more people generate more leads to the same number of advertisers. So naturally, that gives you scope for pricing. Where we think it gives you greater scope is to say, up until now, mister consumer or missus consumer, you've come here and clicked on an ad and made an inquiry. Rather than us charge you more for that, why don't we take you further down the transaction path? Your dependency on these brands and these platforms is increasing. Your use of these brands and platforms is increasing. Your willingness to do more is increasing. So we see that as a really opportunistic way to say, hey, let's take the consumer further down the transaction path. There is a limit to which these businesses over time can simply put up price ads. You can do that and great businesses like REA have been doing that forever. However, we do think that the significant value, when you look at what's in these markets, is getting them closer to the transaction. And the businesses that have done that, there's names InfoCasas and the auto deals of the world, that is where the real growth is likely to come from. So yes, we'll of course welcome the traffic. What we look at more though is their behavior and their dependency and your ability to say, hey, how can we make more of that dependency than we have in the past?

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from James Filius from Bell Potter.

Shaun, great results today. I just wanted to sort of, obviously, the positioning of the portfolio for the year ahead is focused towards LatAm. But given sort of the things going on in Myanmar, can you sort of give us some comments around what you see happening in that market? And what that sort of goes for the year ahead?

Yes. I mean just on the LatAm focus, whilst there will be a significant focus from us on that area, we feel like we're balanced now. We feel that we're a bit of balanced, so we'll certainly be focusing on Asia, that's for sure. We see Asia is a dynamic market where there's more opportunity. With regard to Myanmar, yes, we're in a bit of a wait and see. So if you follow the news like everyone else has, you know that there is some -- there is a coup by the military. I mean just the back story on them, the military are very -- we're very present anyway. They control a lot of the economy, and they've stepped in to take political control, which is not unprecedented. What it has meant is that you've got a fair amount of civil strikes and process and disruption, which makes the business of selling houses and cars a bit tough at the minute. So we've seen a distinct slowdown in commercial activity in Myanmar over the past few weeks. I think we'll know more kind of over the next couple of weeks. I think it all go 1 or 2 ways, which is it will settle down, and they'll be accepting into the regime or it won't settle down and it will get worse. Either way, we expect it to be much clearer by the middle of March over the next couple of weeks. And then I think we'll be able to guide the market as to any material changes in those 2 businesses. But yes, we're -- wait and see pattern at the moment. I guess the way we do view it, James, is we had -- there was a coup in Thailand a couple of years ago. It was almost a very passive coup. The economy returned to full activity pretty quickly thereafter. That's the only guide that we have here. And now to the extent that, that will occur in Myanmar, we don't know, but we'll certainly have a better sense of it by about the middle of March in our view.