FRP Holdings, Inc. (FRPH) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
May 22, 2025
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
John Baker
executiveGood morning. I'm John Baker, III, Chief Executive Officer of FRP Holdings, Inc. With me today are David deVilliers III, our President and COO; Matt McNulty, our Chief Financial Officer; John Baker, II, our Chairman; and David deVilliers, Jr., our Vice Chairman. As a result -- excuse me, as a reminder, any statements in this presentation, which relate to the future are, by their nature, subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and events to differ materially from those indicated in such forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties are listed in our SEC filings. We have no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements except as imposed by law as a result of future events or new information. To supplement the financial results presented in accordance with GAAP, FRP presents certain non-GAAP financial measures within the meaning of Regulation G promulgated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. The non-GAAP financial measure referenced in this presentation is net operating income. FRP uses this non-GAAP financial measure to analyze its operations and monitor, assess and identify meaningful trends in its operating and financial performance. This measure is not and should not be viewed as a substitute for GAAP financial measures. To reconcile NOI in the year's reference in this presentation to GAAP net income, please refer to the final slides of this presentation. We welcome those in person and attending virtually to FRP Holdings 2025 Investor Day. To begin with, I'd like to review and give you some background on our company, our story, which I think explains how we got here and informs where we're going. The origins of this company go back almost 100 years to Florida Rock Industries, which started with a small sand plant in Interlachen, Florida, that my grandfather, Tom Baker ran during the Great Depression. Over several decades, Florida Rock grew into a really amazing company that was sold to Vulcan Materials in 2007. This company, FRP Holdings was the brainchild of my uncle Ted Baker. He was running Florida Rock Industries at that time. In 1986, realizing that we weren't getting full value for all of our assets, he devised a tax-free spinoff, Florida Rock Industries in which Florida Rock spun off it's a trucking company, it's mining lands into a separate company. In 1988, when Florida Rock Industries acquired an aggregates company in Maryland called Arundel. The real estate development wing of Arundel was bolted on to this company. And in my opinion, the most important thing we got in that acquisition was David deVilliers, Jr. While Florida focused on the trucking and aggregates, Big David was essentially left to its own devices and over four decades, not only built an impressive industrial real estate platform from scratch, but he put together an amazing development and management team and incubated a culture of nimble, entrepreneurialism, and teamwork that runs through this company to this very day. Since 1988, FRPH has been a full-service real estate development organization, the significant experience and background in property acquisition, development, and management. Our background is in ground-up development from land purchase, entitlement, construction, lease-up, through the property management as owners. We are rarely a passive investor or a minority partner. We're not typically interested in simply being a capital provider to real estate development projects or a passive income recipient through investments in existing long-established properties and deals. While we don't necessarily rule anything out from an opportunity standpoint, we prefer to focus on where and how we can add value. We have a very strong balance sheet, which we see as fundamental to our strategy. From land purchase through to ownership, the time line for our project can take years, even decades to see through to the end. And the push and pull of business cycles make a paramount to us to maintain a capital cushion to see these projects through. A strong balance sheet, stable growing cash flows and a conservative approach to risk management is fundamental to who we are. Our bread and butter has always been ground-up industrial development. And though we shifted our focus to multifamily in the latter part of the last decade after selling our warehouse portfolio. Industrial real estate remain part of our core strategy. In the last several years, we have returned to that industrial first strategy. We've put together a modest portfolio of in-house assets totaling 550,000 square feet through the first quarter, now 800,000 square feet with the addition of our new Chelsea building. And we have a pipeline in Baltimore, capable of accommodating another 1.5 million square feet. We've also established new relationships with joint venture partners that allow us to grow beyond the limits of our bandwidth or the limits of the bandwidth of our in-house development team. Our JVs with BBX in Lakeland, Broward County, Florida are a perfect example of this tactic. These are some of the best industrial markets in the world, but we don't have an office for our team there. These partnerships allow us to be more aggressive with our growth without overloading our team or the markets we have traditionally operated in. We are in the first year of our plan to deliver three new industrial properties every two years. The goal of doubling the size of our portfolio in 2024 to over 1 million square feet of industrial by 2030. One way to look at what we do is to think of us as a service provider. The service is unlocking the value of land by developing real estate that people in businesses need. The need we are meeting is for shallow bay industrial assets in quality markets, they are not capital-intensitive enough to meet the investment thresholds of the institutions and large REITs, but are essential for small businesses and demand meaningful rents and rent growth because of their market and because they are more complicated to construct than a big box shell building. This is our core competency, and we intend to lean into it. Despite the increase in industrial rents over the last several years, facility costs still only represent 3% to 6% of the total cost of a finished product, leaving room for further rent growth. No business is recession-proof, but we believe that if we choose the right markets and meet the demand for an underserved asset class with high-quality product, we will create value for this company over the long term. It's not rocket science, but we are not in the business of making rockets. To temper this aggressive industrial strategy, we still intend to work with joint venture partners to develop multifamily assets. It won't be at the same rate as you saw over the last several years. This is a business we have come to understand, in which we have cultivated excellent relationships with our JV partners. We intend to take a similar approach to our multifamily development strategy as we have with our industrial assets, namely targeting high-growth, high-quality markets, but there is a demand for the type of product we're delivering. This means less of a focus on DC and an expansion of our multifamily footprint in Greenville as well as a multifamily project in Southwest Florida. I know the market like simple, but as we have said before, we believe that the ability to pivot capital and focus between asset classes that we know is a strength for this company. Had we solely focused on industrial in the past, we would have sold our land on the Anacostia River and we literally would not be standing where we are today. As we focused solely on multifamily, after the asset sale in 2018, we would have planned on decades of experience in industrial development and would not have been easily able to pivot back to the industrial strategy when the multifamily margins tightened after COVID. Had we solely focused on real estate, and real estate development and embrace simple, we would have sold the mining royalties a long time ago and issued a cash flow engine that is fueled our debt-free industrial development. This company's culture and heritage is one of entrepreneurship and adaptability. This goes all the way back to Thompson Baker running a sand plant and receivership and tags employees with furniture from his house. It goes through to Ted Baker coming up with the idea for spinning off Florida Rock real estate assets, all the way through to my dad and Big David, trying to keep the lights on in 2008 when we were barely cash flowing. There is no pride of authorship in this company. No hat we won't wear, and our goal is to maximize our time, our capital, our relationships, and our abilities. As I have touched on, we are in the first steps of executing what will be a transformative plan for this company. In the last few years, you have seen us grow pro rata NOI at an aggressively high rate, 21% from 2021 through 2024. What were you setting out to do over the next five years, I would argue, is more meaningful. We will double the size of our industrial portfolio, expand into new multifamily and industrial markets. We will grow our NOI by another $30 million when we're through. And when 2030 rolls around, we will not only have accomplished what we set out to do, but we will have set the table for further meaningful growth and the ability to start returning capital to shareholders. The money for some of these projects has already been spent. Some of the new projects have been identified and the capital has been allocated and some of these projects have yet to be identified, but this is the vision, as part of our strategy, and I'm going to turn it over to David deVilliers, III, for how we're going to execute it.
David deVilliers
executiveThank you, John. As John indicated, at FRP, we are developers with a strategy focused on building and acquiring industrial, multifamily and mining assets to generate earnings and NOI growth to build shareholder value over time. We are a full-service real estate development organization operating across three different asset classes, which in an era of growing specialization and fragmentation makes us a bit unique. We are okay with being different and are comfortable operating in the asset classes that we have known for decades. Importantly, and foundational to this full service model is a small, nimble organization with a management team that is patient, but can act quickly and decisively. We believe that in our business, broad knowledge, patience, and decisiveness are critical attributes to create, generate, and grow long-term value and mitigate NOI dilutive decisions and assets. Although at times, we receive fees for development, we are not fee developers by trade. We are not going to develop just to develop and earn fees. As Warren Buffett likes to say, we wait for fat pitches and our content to keep the bat on our shoulders as we wait for good opportunities to present themselves. This approach drove the creation of FRP's industrial portfolio over the first 3 decades of FRP's existence. It was this approach which resulted in the sale of our industrial assets to Blackstone in 2018. He led to long-term land positions with a low-cost basis in the D.C. area that eventually led to our first multifamily development project that we are sitting and standing in today known as Dock 79. It was inherent in the decade's long ownership and historic participation in the aggregates mining business, which may also have a second life post mining. More on that later in my presentation. Our patient approach, ability to pivot and make decisive decisions to build, hold or sell assets, has allowed us, along with our partners, to pause our multifamily development program here in D.C. 2.5 years ago. The market showed signs of intensifying headwinds and it made sense to pause, patiently wait for additional data and then make a calculated decision when the future was clear. But I am getting ahead of myself here a bit. Let me quickly provide a high-level overview of our four business segments and review the most recent performance data for each segment. I will then dive deeper into the capital allocation and investment shifts John spoke of earlier, which include greater focus and investment in our traditional industrial commercial asset class and a geographic shift to the Southeast. FRP reports on and has four core business segments. These include our Mining & Royalty segment, our Industrial & Commercial segment, our Multifamily segment; and finally, our Development Business segment. Beginning with our Mining & Royalty segment, these are the heritage properties spun out to us from Florida Rock Industries in 1986. Today, we have 14 mining locations in Florida, Georgia, and Virginia that produce sand and crush stone, which we lease to operators in the aggregate business like Vulcan Materials, Martin Marietta and Cemex. We are paid a percentage of the total tons multiplied by the average annual sale price at each of our locations, which is tantamount to a percentage of revenue. Aggregate prices, especially in the last 15 years have grown well in excess of inflation. We have seen our royalty revenue increase annually and have been able to participate in the demand and price growth enjoyed by our tenants without having to put in the CapEx or make any additional hires to achieve it. Our cost in this business name it are minor and any increase flows directly to the bottom line. FRP's roots stem from our Industrial & Commercial segment. We started with an interest in focus on ground up industrial development and built and acquired a portfolio that reached over 4.5 million square feet in 2018. Although we shifted our focus to multifamily in 2019 following the sale of the industrial portfolio, Industrial real estate remained a part of our core strategy. It is a segment that has and is returning to being central to our focus going forward. As John said earlier, we are in the initial stages of our industrial shift. Our recently completed 258,000 square foot building in Maryland, combined with the delivery of three buildings in Florida, totaling 382,000 square feet in 2026, will double our current industrial portfolio from 550,000 square feet to over 1.1 million square feet next year, more on this in a few minutes. Our third business segment is our Multifamily segment. These are joint venture partnerships where FRP seeks to be a majority partner, an active owner and ground-up multifamily development projects. The segment got it started by developing land we already own in D.C. in the early 2010s. Since then, we have partnered to build another three projects in D.C. as well as two in Greenville, South Carolina, for a total of six buildings and over 1,800 units. In the immediate future, we will be less focused on multifamily development than we have, but we see it as a useful hedge to our industrial strategy. This is a business we understand and in which we have cultivated excellent relationships with our JV partners. We intend to take a similar approach to multifamily development as we have with our industrial assets, namely, targeting high-growth, high-quality markets where there is demand for the type of product we are delivering. That means less of a focus on D.C. and an expansion of our multifamily footprint in Greenville, South Carolina, as well as a new multifamily project in Southwest Florida. Let me now provide a quick review of recent results for each segment with some key metrics with the goal of creating reference points from which to measure and compare where we are heading. Our Mining segment provided $14.4 million in NOI in 2024 and achieved a 17.2% NOI CAGR over the last 4 years. As I mentioned earlier, we love this cash flow. It is an annuity that continues to grow, maintains its value with little management and a cash source that supports the development of our industrial and multifamily pipeline. The Industrial Commercial segment contains roughly 550,000 square feet of product in nine buildings and is 100% owned by FRP at this time. It generated $4.5 million in NOI in 2024, approximately $8.15 per square foot at 95% occupancy. All the assets in this segment are in Maryland. Over the last 4 years, we have achieved a pro rata NOI CAGR of 33.4%. The Multifamily segment consists of over 1,800 multifamily units and 125,000 square feet of retail in eight buildings, with FRP owning approximately 55% of these assets and generated $18.2 million in pro rata NOI in 2024, were about $10,000 a unit at 93% occupancy. Over 75% of these assets are located in the district and 25% located in South Carolina. Over the last 4 years, these assets generated a pro rata NOI CAGR of 31%. Our fourth and final segment is the Development segment, which is not broken out on these slides. It represents a small percentage of pro rata NOI, about $1 million. The assets that reside in this segment are in their infancy, not entitled for their highest and best use, not been through the vertical development cycle and reach completion. Whereas the other three segments contain and report on results from operating assets, this segment as its name suggests, contains assets, land bank for development in the future or in the initial development stage. This segment contains our fee simple land holdings or assets under contract. This division is the engine that enables our business to expand our real estate holdings through in-house and collaborative joint venture partnerships. It offers a glimpse of our future and what the company can achieve with assets we already own and control. This is our pipeline where we are actively entitling 1.9 million square feet of industrial product over 1,800 multifamily units and over 1,000 residential lots for sale. Over the last 4 years, these segments in total grew NOI from $17.6 million to $38.1 million, representing over a 30% CAGR. I now want to focus on the investment and expansion of our industrial commercial portfolio that John spoke of in his opening remarks. Before I outline where we're headed, I do think it's useful to understand how we got here in the changing environment or backdrop that has and will continue to shape this landscape for the foreseeable future. Historically, this segment was the cornerstone at FRP over its first 3 decades as a public company, our initial industrial platform centered around opportunities in Maryland and the Baltimore-Washington corridor. We also targeted larger raw land sites that could support multiple buildings and sites that were the next exit up. This is where the land was cheaper, still had access to core transportation routes like I-95, I-695 and I-70 and supported dense population centers, albeit it took 15 to 20 minutes more to reach those populations. This strategy worked well and the platform accelerated in size and value during the Roaring 2010s, where we saw rents grew exponentially, vacancies fall from 9% to 4%, money was cheap and leasing and acquisition demand were ferocious. It was also impossible to lose during this time. We, of course, participated in this growth area, which is what led to the sale of our 4.5 million square feet industrial portfolio for $347 million to a subsidiary of Blackstone. Well, that landscape has certainly changed. Looking at the current environment, and out into the future, we believe a different approach, one that is more geographically flexible as well as located in more densely populated areas, hyper infill locations will be both necessary and more valuable, having a robust due diligence process, capital discipline, a deliberative approach and being selective are cautionary traits that can slow down growth in the development process. During errors, like the one I just mentioned, these characteristics can hold one back, while others with less conservative instincts pull ahead. That's capitalism. But as I said, the landscape has changed, and though we participated and benefited nicely during this past [ era ], we did so from a strategic and disciplined stance with cautionary instinct, which are essential parts of who we are as a management team and a company, and we think that DNA is a good thing. Our historic process and proven instincts are and what will be fundamentally important to how and where we invest over the next several years. Our cautionary confidence in choosing the right asset class at the right time and in the right location makes us excited about the current and future opportunities we see outside of FRP's historic Maryland market. Our core principles of what makes the market attractive and which historically drive industrial demand, appear more present in locations outside of Maryland. We are targeting submarkets with strong population growth and/or dense population, access to multimodal transportation routes, including ports, highways, rail and airports, business attraction and employment growth, markets where national players have a presence and under pro business and development attitudes from the local government, strong and available workforce and markets where there is land scarcity and tough government regulations that are predictable or other factors that create barriers to new industrial development. Multimodal, business friendly, strong labor pool and net positive migration markets tend to have long-term demand drivers that are stronger than other markets, leading to more resilient and rent growth prone outcomes. These are the reasons for our recent pivot to Central and Southern Florida. South Florida is an international trade gateway with Port Miami and Port Everglades, which generates a strong demand for distribution and freight forwarding facilities, which are integral to the logistics and supply chain industry. The port of Miami was one of the fastest-growing ports in the U.S. over the past decade. Turning to Central Florida, Tampa is a strategic Gulf Coast hub and port with access to I-4 and I-75 and providing excellent distribution routes, making the market highly attractive to manufacturing and logistics providers. Orlando is also on the I-4 corridor with proximity to a major airport with direct services to cities across Latin America, Europe, and the Middle East. The diverse economy, world-class tourism infrastructure, convenient location, and multimodal transportation network have resulted in significant economic expansion and population growth and is the third largest metro in the state of Florida. In general, when it comes to population growth in the U.S., Florida over the past several years consistently places four different cities among the top 10 fastest-growing metro areas in the U.S., dominating this category. So what are we doing in Florida? We're breaking ground on a 200,000 square foot building in Lakeland, Florida, located between Orlando and Tampa, all five-floor, where we are a 90% partner with Altman logistics Properties. FRP and Altman are also breaking ground on 182,000 square feet in Davie, Florida, right outside of Fort Lauderdale, where FRP is an 80% owner. These buildings should be ready for tenants in 2026 and stabilized in 2027. FRP will continue to look for opportunities to scale in South Florida as well as the Tampa and Orlando markets. We will also look for new markets along the East Coast, which meet our criteria. We are interested in finding significant land-constrained markets where we can redevelop and demolish older obsolete facilities, offices, movie theaters, banquet halls, and create a modern infill warehouse space. Markets like New York, New Jersey, and East Pennsylvania in the North could make sense, the Carolina markets may make sense. In South Carolina, where we are already active, Charleston is in the top 5 of the fastest-growing metro areas in the U.S. in recent years. And while we are focused on the Southeast, we remain active in Maryland with the recent completion of a 258,000 square foot building in Harford County, Maryland. We also continue to seek permits to construct a 213,000 square foot building in Aberdeen, Maryland, which has three future building pads capable of supporting an additional 425,000 square feet as well as entitling a 900,000 square foot e-commerce building in Cecil County, Maryland. We will look for a build-to-suit or a capital partner when the market for larger buildings becomes more robust. So in summary, our three projects under construction will add $6.6 million in additional NOI by 2028, bringing our estimated total NOI for this segment to $11.2 million. And those three projects are our two Florida projects and our one in Maryland. Looking out in the future, we have earmarked some $115 million in cash to deploy through 2028 on new industrial opportunities, which are in addition to the industrial buildings mentioned to date. If we consider utilizing debt at 55% loan to cost, it will enable us to invest $255 million into industrial assets and generate over $17.3 million in NOI, assuming a 6.75% return on cost. Based on a cost of $255 million, and a market value of $315 million, assuming a 5.5% capitalization rate on NOI, we could create $60 million in additional value or said another way, utilizing $115 million in cash and $140 million in debt, we could create $175 million in net asset value over a 1.5 multiple on invested cash if you simply sold the asset and exclude any incoming cash flow. This deployment is speculative, but we do have several irons in the fire and several letters of intent that make us feel comfortable that the capital plan above is possible, provided market conditions remain stable. In terms of our Multifamily segment, back in 2023, we explained we were pivoting from Multifamily to Industrial. This change was rooted in the fact that our Multifamily opportunities were all located in the Washington, D.C. market and there were too many headwind warning signs going off. The data showed a large supply of deliveries, rising construction costs and interest rates, stalling rental rate growth, increasing concessions in a market where the governing agencies supported tenant-landlord laws that inherently increase delinquencies. Landlords were not allowed to screen tenants, bad actors were then allowed to reside in the buildings and operate illegal activities and not pay rent, and landlords had significant hurdles and requirements to evict the tenants. This led delinquency rates to reach double digits. With the benefit of both hindsight and the passage of time, it does appear that our proactive decision to pause our Multifamily development in the nation's capital was the right decision. We do anticipate the delivery of units to slow moving into 2026 and the demand to supply curve to come back into alignment to where rent growth, vacancies, and concessions are at levels that warrant development. We also are seeing tenant-landlord laws change and the level of delinquency decline. We expect the trend to move favorably and may reach a point in 2026, that makes the development of our Riverfront properties located next to Dock and Maren, and our Steuart joint venture located next to Verge economically feasible and that risk-adjusted return thresholds that make sense. As a reminder, here is an overview of our future Riverfront properties highlighted as Phase 3 and 4 and the Steuart joint venture labeled as SIC I, II, III, and IV. We also have a parcel labeled 664E that is currently leased to Vulcan for its concrete operations that, at some point, will be transformed into a higher and better use. These projects that basically form the southern entrance to D.C. had the potential to yield over 2,000 multifamily units. At current performance levels with FRP having a 55% ownership interest in these projects, these assets represent over $20 million in potential NOI based on $10,000 in NOI per unit. In the meantime, as we wait for the D.C. market to evolve and like our industrial segment, we have turned our intention to the Southeast. Demand for apartments has proven resilient, the supply pipeline and construction starts are down significantly. Regionally, the Sunbelt is benefiting from strong demographic trends and economic growth. This has led to stable vacancy rates, low to no delinquency and rental rates gaining momentum. As a result, we plan to break ground on our Woven project shown on this slide, consisting of 214 units and 13,000 square feet of retail in Greenville, South Carolina this summer with our partner, Woodfield Development, where FRP is a 68% owner. This project is located between our existing 408 Jackson and Riverside projects that continue to have impressive performance metrics. FRP and Woodfield are also planning to break ground on the first phase of our Estero, Florida, project, consisting of 295 units and 25,000 square feet of retail. The project is located between Naples and Fort Myers at the intersection of Coconut Road and Tamiami Road, where FRP is a 16% owner. These projects should be ready for tenants in 2028 and stabilize in 2029 and take our Multifamily segment to over 2,300 units. These projects are projected to increase NOI by $4.7 million, assuming a 6.5% return on cost and have a value over $91 million based on a low 5 capitalization rate. Looking out through 2028, we have earmarked $80 million in cash to develop our Woven and Estero projects as well as a single Riverfront phase and single Steuart phase. If we continue to utilize 55% loan-to-cost debt, it will enable us to invest in multifamily projects with a total cost of $178 million and potentially generate over $11.6 million in NOI assuming a 6.5% return on cost. Based on cost of $178 million and a market value of $220 million, assuming a 5.25% capitalization rate on NOI, we could create $42 million in additional value. Or said another way, we can utilize $80 million in cash and $98 million in debt to create $122 million in net asset value over a 1.5 multiple on invested cash if you simply sold the asset and again, exclude all incoming cash flow. Moving on to our mining and royalties program. While aggregate volumes have not reached their pre-financial crisis peak of 10 million tons, FRP's royalty income from these operations tripled from $4.8 million in 2006 to $12.8 million in 2024, demonstrating strong upward growth in pricing. The fundamental long-term growth strategy or growth story in aggregates is tied to federal, state and local spending, commercial development and housing growth. Permitting for new mines and for the expansion of existing operations has been difficult for a while now, and we do not expect this change since proximity to growing population centers and the development concerns that come along with growth, is one of the most important attributes of a valuable mining operation. And because aggregates are heavy and have a low value-to-weight ratio, transporting this material far or even much beyond short distances from its source is difficult and generally uneconomic. So imports from afar, for instance, are generally a non-factor in aggregates in the U.S. And even with the increase in price, the cost of sand and crush stone and the overall price for a yard of concrete is still relatively small. As a result, these assets do not degrade over time. We expect to see continued pricing increases and demand remaining consistent giving the company a steady stream of income to fuel and support our Industrial and Multifamily pipeline and new development opportunities. In addition to mining, FRP has land parcels that we plan to entitle and sell to national homebuilders. Two of these projects are lands where mining royalties are currently earned. We are in the initial stages of planning a second life for both properties once mining operations cease towards the end of 2027. This includes our Fort Myers, Florida quarry, which could hold just under 500 units and our Brooksville, Florida quarry that could hold over 5,000 dwelling units. These properties could carry a sale price of $60 million in total following entitlement and devotes and off-site infrastructure contributions. We also have Aberdeen overlook and Hampstead Overlook. Aberdeen Overlook is underway and consists of 344 residential lots. We have committed $31.1 million in funding and received 10% interest on any money drawn and outstanding. We also have an IRR threshold in which there is a profit share. If the project does not make a 20% IRR, then our partner receives no profit. If profits exceed a 20% IRR, then a fraction of the profits is split between FRP and our partner. Today, these lots are under contract with the national homebuilder, 133 of the 344 lots were closed upon and we expect to generate interest and profits of $11.2 million resulting in a 36% profit on funds drawn. Hampstead Overlook is a 255 residential lot development in Carroll County, Maryland, and is in the final entitlement phase. The ultimate funding requirements and projected profits are to be determined as this project has extensive off-site improvements. Moving forward on these land endeavors, where FRP is the primary capital source. We are looking to negotiate deals where FRP keeps certain water and sewer lien rights to help pay and reimburse us for the capital committed to expand off-site utilities to serve our projects and surrounding communities. These liens call for each lot owner to pay $600 annually for 20 or more years. This would allow our lending venture strategy to create a long-term cash flow in addition to the profits earned from sales and interest. In summary, we are developers that develop assets to own and operate, to generate cash flow and sale proceeds, and reinvest that cash earned into additional projects to scale and grow the platform and build value for the stockholders. The market that began in 2010 following the Great Recession has changed. Multiple factors, including reduced construction starts and deliveries, low absorption rates, higher vacancies and interest rates, and inflationary pressures are jostling causing changes in the market, uncertainty around tariffs and their potential impact on economic growth and inflation is something to watch for. It makes for a complex situation and something that requires strategic patience, decisive actions and staying power capacity to weather the storm. We believe the changing environment will be more beneficial for FRP versus other players and investors in this space, given our size, nimbleness, asset and geographic diversity, strong balance sheet and continued strong growth in cash flow, and free cash flow to support our significant and compelling plans over the back half of this decade. Our strong balance sheet creates the ability to take advantage of opportunities and market dislocations. Given the amount of stress and uncertainty in the market, we feel opportunities are out there. We just need to find and locate the right one or ones. As we wait patiently for the right opportunities, we are excited about our current Industrial, Multifamily, and Mining assets, which generated $38 million in NOI in 2024. The $115 million allocated to industrial and $80 million allocated to the multifamily through 2028, and plus the $61 million we recently invested in our Maryland and Florida projects, provides an opportunity to meaningfully grow the platform to over 1.4 million square feet of industrial product and over 2,300 multifamily units and hope to create close to $36 million in additional NOI and close to $377 million in additional net asset value by 2030. We believe this is achievable. We are beginning to march down this path now in locations that position the portfolio on a durable foundation poised for resilience and growth. The targeted locations will create a portfolio with a diversified market exposure centered around strong demographic and economic tailwinds with exceptional and functional qualities and attributes. These values support strong, consistent and growing cash flow with the ability to monetize and maximize value under Class A capitalization rates. I will now turn the presentation over to Matt McNulty, our CFO. Matt?
Matthew McNulty
executiveThank you, David, and thank you to our shareholders for your investment in FRP. David just gave you a detailed view of our construction plans looking out over the next 3.5 years. For this portion of the presentation, I'm going to extend that period out to the end of 2029, to lay out our current full 5-year investment plan. But before I go there -- Sorry, I missed that slide. But before I go there, I want to quickly review and summarize where we have come from since the portfolio sale in 2018 by segment and overall as a company. As you can see, each of our three NOI-producing segments has had a steady growth trajectory with our Multifamily having the largest impact on overall NOI growth. That was our strategy following the sale of the warehouse portfolio in 2018, and we delivered on that strategy by adding approximately $18 million of NOI in the Multifamily segment. Now as John and David stated, our strategy has turned to a more industrial focus with an eye -- while keeping an eye on Multifamily as we watch those markets over the next few years. These next two slides provide some of the parts analysis of our company, which we believe provides a good framework to understand how we think about value at FRP and whether or not our share price reflects both the value we have created to date and the value we plan to add based on our historical track record in the inventory of land we own and control. Mind you, what these slides don't and can't account for is a reputation in the development community and our strong financial position, which can produce future opportunities not yet included here. This first slide or part one of this sum of the parts analysis represents the past and present of the company in the form of developed and owned assets that generate recurring and growing annual NOI. You can see here that we have organized these by asset type and use pro rata NOI as well as provided an assumed cap rate for each asset class. We believe the cap rates we have used here are in line with market, but of course, investors are free to place their own multiple assumptions on each asset. You can see that the total per share net asset value we show is approximately $27 to $30 per share. Our shares currently trade in the lower end of this range. What this tells me is that the market is really only giving us credit for our income-producing assets. So you as shareholders get to enjoy or better said, receive for free, the development potential of FRP's management team and our inventory of lands to be developed. To remind everyone what underlies this page of the analysis includes our 11 industrial buildings, 6 multifamily projects, and 14 aggregate quarries. Since 2018, we have invested a total of $296 million of cash into new projects, took on $228 million of pro rata debt. And through these investments, have grown our annual NOI from $13.7 million to $38.1 million. Turning to the next page. Let's take a look at the development potential, which is mostly what David's detailed presentation was really focused on today. This is the future of the company. Importantly, these are lands and projects we already own and have detailed plans to develop over the next 5 years and beyond and can control their respective development time lines. We can move faster or slower as needed based on market conditions. As you can see at the bottom of this page, part 2 of the sum of the parts analysis, we conservatively estimate that the land would increase the company net asset value closer to $37 per share at the midpoint of the range or close to 40% above our current share price. What this NAV analysis doesn't do is estimate the future value add that our development team and partners can bring to this conservatively valued land through entitlements, development and ultimately, new NOI. I now want to review and extend the analysis that David presented to you earlier, looking out to the end of this decade and providing you insight into our total plans for the next 5 years. Building on what we invested over the past 2 years, over the next 5 years, we plan to invest over $300 million of additional cash as equity and a similar but lower amount of pro rata debt in a number of projects across our industrial, commercial, and multifamily segments from which we expect to add on a recurring basis, an additional $44 million of annual NOI. Before we open the floor to questions, I want to spend a minute on the subject of NOI and pro rata NOI specifically and why we focus so much on this metric in discussing our performance and outlook with the investment community. NOI is a metric often used by real estate companies to monitor value creation. NOI is essentially cash produced by the operating properties prior to paying SG&A and debt service. The reason this is important is that assets in the real estate world are typically valued by dividing the market cap rate into the asset's NOI, i.e., what a buyer would receive as a return on a cash investment in year 1. As a result, if we grow our pro rata NOI using cash on hand, cash flow, and conservative amounts of debt without issuing new equity, over time, we are creating significant incremental per share value for our shareholders. And I'll end it there. Again, thank you for your investment in FRP. We'll take a quick break to set up for Q&A. [Break]
Operator
operatorFirst question we have from the webcast and thank you for the detailed and good presentation. I want to ask about your forecast looking out to 2030, all that you're planning, I want to -- if you could talk about a little more detail the financing or the ability to undertake all that. It looks like, if I understand or saw from your presentation that you're going to be spending over $300 million potentially in equity capital to execute or achieve those plans. So could you talk about financing that from cash on the balance sheet and NOI growth over that time and your ability to execute all that and yet still be positioned with a strong balance sheet you've historically operated with.
John Baker
executiveYes. I mean I think of that $300 million that we talked about, a good chunk of it is already spent, $90 million in industrial projects, that's money that's been spent. The rest is going to come from cash on hand and cash flow that we generate. If you can't generate cash flow to pay for the future projects, and we're not going to do them. But that's -- this is our plan as things stand and based on projections. And if things stay the same or as we predict them, which, of course, they won't, but you got to have the plan. That's what we're going to do. If things change, I think we have the ability to pivot, slow down, reassess, but this is in the current economic environment, this is our plan. Some of the money has been spent. Some of the money is for projects that we've identified and have allocated capital for and then some of the money is for projects that we're trying to go out and identify right now. If we can't identify them, then we're not going to spend the money. I mean I think, like David said, we'll put the bat on our shoulders...
David deVilliers
executiveAnd stay away from the animal.
John Baker
executiveYes. We'll put the bat on our shoulders and wait for fat pitches. But I think it's important to have a strategy and a vision going forward over a period of time so that you can execute on it. If things change, then we'll change.
Matthew McNulty
executiveAnd just to add on, we will see a pretty significant drawdown in our cash on hand. We've built our plan to keep a cushion of cash, but there will be a couple of years where you'll see that cash drop down into the $40 million range and then start to grow back up again towards the end of the decade and going forward, depending on what we do. But there will be a lot of cash out of the bank as part of that $300 million.
Operator
operatorAnother question from the webcast that sort of, I guess, I'd characterize as a follow-on question to that last one, but also your comments and also in your presentation, you're looking back over the last 5, 6 years, you've been able to execute really strong growth in NOI, really do significant amount of investment in growth and yet the cash on the balance sheet stayed relatively flat and strong over that time period. Are we going to see something like that again over the next 5, 6 years? It sounds like from your last answer, that there'll be more drawdown this time. But I want to talk about the differences -- the similarities and differences of the last 5 or 6 years of growth and what you're projecting out in the future and how that affects things like capital allocation from a standpoint of ability to engage things like share repurchase activities, dividend initiation and growth and so forth.
John Baker
executiveYes, I think the answer to that question is what Matt just said is that we're going to have significant drawdowns of our cash on hand. We were able to maintain a very, very, I would say, maybe over robust cash position since the asset sale, part of that, even though we were growing NOI, part of that came from selling things off. I mean, selling a portion of our -- of Dock 79 and Maren to the Steuart as part of the tick sale, that generated a significant amount of cash. I think we sold a warehouse in 2019, 2020, that obviously generated a good amount of cash. So some refinancings to generate a decent amount of cash. So...
Matthew McNulty
executiveThere was some odd cash inflows or unusual cash inflows that allowed us to keep that cash position relatively high that we're not forecasting in the current plan.
David deVilliers
executiveCorrect. Yes. To add on to that, a couple of our multifamily projects are OZ deals. So we really can't sell them until after that OZ hold period, which is kind of 2030, 2029. And most of our deals were locked into permanent financing at better rates than are out there today. So a lot of those cash proceeds from refinances or sales are not in the next 3, 4, 5 years.
Operator
operatorIt's a question talking about...
John Baker
executiveWell, I don't -- actually, I don't think we answered the question perfectly. I think there was a question about share buybacks or dividends. We're not going to have $140 million on our balance sheet in a year from now, 2 years from now, 3 years from now. We are putting this money to work. And in our opinion, this money is better spent on income-generating projects than a dividend that is generated from money we've already paid taxes on and that our shareholders are going to have to pay taxes on and is a onetime thing. It will also -- a dividend, even a small one will, I think the market requires you to grow your dividend in order to be rewarded by it and that's going to eat into our capital cushion. So it's a capital allocation choice. For the question, you can either repurchase shares and issue dividends. You get kind of a onetime pop theoretically from repurchasing shares. Dividends are again, cash, you've already paid taxes on and get taxed again, they go back to shareholders. I'm a shareholder, you're a shareholder, you're a shareholder. We would love to get to the point where we're issuing -- we have a large, large cash position and more cash than we have the ability to put into projects. That would be wonderful for I think all shareholders. That's not where we are. We are a small company. We're growing and I don't think that it makes sense for a small company to have the capital allocation and return strategy of a much larger company that has more cash than it has projects to invest in.
Operator
operatorThank you. Question from the webcast on the investments in the shift -- geographic shift. First, can you talk more -- you mentioned the pause in D.C. on Multifamily a couple of years ago. But it looks like there is some assumption of moving forward on certain projects over the next several years. Do you think that would be the case? Or could those be pushed out further? And then could you also talk about in terms of the geographic shift, will we see Industrial -- it seems like Industrial and Multifamily shifting down to Southeast and Florida, is that going to be a more permanent shift for this company looking out over the next, not just 5 years but perhaps longer?
David deVilliers
executiveTurning to pauses here in D.C. We own most of those properties outright. So the decision to hold and pause, we certainly can do that. Our Steuart partnership, I think we're well aligned as it relates to what we're looking for in terms of returns, value creation. And I think both partners will pause if the market is not there. The last couple of years, the D.C. market, it has not been a pro-development market for all the things that I said, vacancies, tons of deliveries, muted rent growth, and even many of the D.C. Laws that are here. And we'll have to wait and see. Things are changing. They have to change more. And I think that's going to be more of a reevaluation in 2026. And if it's like it is now, we'll probably pause to 2027 and just wait for the headwinds to decline and the tailwinds to speed up. So in terms of multifamily pause here, we're 100% can do that. We can make that decision. Shifting to the Southeast. Right now, those markets look better than our historic market here in Maryland and we're seeing some good performance in some of our existing assets down in the Southeast, notably our Riverside and 408 Jackson projects. And in Florida, from an industrial standpoint, we just broke ground in Davie, Florida, right outside Fort Lauderdale, Miami, and we already have LOIs and interest, which is something that we don't see up here in Maryland. So we're seeing strong demand in Florida. We've got good construction pricing right now. And if that market holds, yes, we will look to scale in Florida because the market conditions and everything are saying this is a good market. It's a good time to build, and you're going to get rewarded for building. So if markets stay the same, we will stay in the Southeast in scale.
John Baker
executiveYes. I don't know that it's necessarily an end, it's not end or it's an end. We still have a good pipeline in Maryland. We're going to be shovel ready on, I think, close to 1.5 million square feet, and we want the ability when the market says go, to go.
Operator
operatorThis is a question that comes in regarding the presentation, the kind of the sum of the parts analysis you walked through. So this is very helpful. I appreciate it, but I'm not dissimilar or very similar to the exercise a couple of years back when you guys gave a presentation. And so the question is what can be done, if anything, you've done to try and close that gap between where share price is right now and where the unrecognized value between the current price and pipeline of development actions for the future that you know you have in hand, you're moving forward and that gap difference. So what can management do? What is management thinking about in terms of, if anything, that it can try and close the gap between those two and then grow from there?
John Baker
executiveYes. I think there are a couple of things that we can do. And I think we spoke to them last Investor Day. One is exercises like this, getting out and explaining the company to potential shareholders. We are not simple necessarily. But I think we have amazing assets in all of our asset classes. And so putting it in a more digestible form than we had in the past, making the company easier to understand, getting investors as excited about what we have in our future as we are, I think that can only help. And then the other way to do it is, I think I said this two years ago, it is a simple strategy, but it is not easy. We got to grow. And we have to get to the point where we're not the small company, where we get to big enough that people can't ignore us anymore. That is not easy to do, but it is -- I mean that is a simple strategy to grow, and it's going to take time, but we think with the plan that we've shown you all that we can accomplish it because not only will we grow in the next 5 years, but we will set ourselves up for further growth.
Operator
operatorSort of a two-part question. Two different ways of talking -- asking a question about the Mining and Royalties business. One, you've talked about in the past -- asked about in past, is there anything to be done to create more value or get more value recognized by the market for that asset base in the company. And the question to go in addition to that is if not that, you've also -- it's obviously a great business, and you talked about in the past an interest or desire to get bigger in it, but is there really any ability for you to get bigger in that business, acquire more properties or opportunities?
John Baker
executiveYes. I'm not sure that we're not getting full value for the mining properties. I think Matt made a pretty compelling case and has some of the parts that we get credit for what we make money on. It's the future development that the market has yet to give us credit for. I think you can make an argument that we're not getting any value for the second life lands. But as far as growing our presence in the aggregate space, it's something we look at constantly. But you look at an aggregate royalty deal in 2012 and one in...
David deVilliers
executive'18 may be.
John Baker
executiveYes, 2 or 3 in 2021, 2 since 1986. Financing from an operator's perspective, within aggregate royalty deal is very, very expensive financing, and that's not necessarily a capital raising strategy that I think a Vulcan or a Martin Marietta would seek to employ or need. But you have to hang around the hoop. You have to put your name out there, established relationships with existing operators so that when somebody wants to do a deal, you're already there to do it. And looking ourselves for aggregates land that you could potentially zone and title and establish a deal with an operator, that's part of the reason why the aggregates business is so good because the stuff is really, really, really hard to do. People do not like quarries in their backyard. But it is something that is constantly on our mind and that we devote, I don't want to say an embarrassing amount of time, too, but we devote a lot of time to it for given the -- what we've been able to add to that section, but keep trying, keep trying. It's a great business, obviously.
Operator
operatorThe development area and following -- somewhat following on the aggregates, maybe you talked about the two properties, I think it's in 2027, you indicated they reached the end of the -- I think it's their useful life, maybe it is or the end of the lease, and that could then open those for development opportunities you talked and you gave us some perspective values on each of those. Can you talk about how long after that year that would to take to prepare, realize and entitle those properties for development? And what would be the benefits or the pros and cons to selling those and realizing that value versus FRP moving forward as a developer of those opportunities for itself and ownership?
David deVilliers
executiveRight. So the two properties are the Fort Myers quarry in the Brooksville quarry. The Fort Myers quarry right now is actively being mined, and that lease is in place through 2027. And one of the most compelling factors to that project is that Lee County is putting in a brand-new road, Alico Road, that literally goes right through the property. And they have basically told our tenant, Vulcan that you are not able to cross this road when we construct it. So everything to their plant is on one side of the road, their mines are on the other. So when this road comes through, they're not allowed to mine, they're not allowed to across the road. So at that point, those two mines really are shut down. They're going to mine them to the greatest extent that they can. And then after that, we need to create a value there. We're starting that process now. We need that road in. Without the road, it has no value. So in terms of timing, from now until that road opens up, probably sometime in late 2029, things have a tendency to be delayed. That's when we're going to design and title and be ready to sell those lots. We can sell them at record plat or we can go and put in the interior roads, water sewer. We have to look to see if it's worth it and where we can make the most money and spend our time as efficiently as we can. So that's kind of the time frame, entitle permit, get it ready and come 2028, 2027, somewhere in there, we'll figure out if we want to develop it or sell it at record plat. But we don't have to make that decision now. What we do need to do, though, is to get it ready and have it ready for when that road opens up. Brooksville is an interesting one. It's actively mined. We don't get a huge royalty from Brooksville, but the property has the potential to be very, very valuable. We've received LOIs. We have received paper that tells us that. We're a 50-50 partner with Vulcan. So it will be a collective decision and a collective sale. They have several items that they have to do from a reclamation standpoint, kind of when you're done mining, you can't leave that piece of land like a moon scape, you got to do certain things, they have to complete that and then at that point, that property can be ready to be sold, developed, entitled. And I think that timing is somewhat similar. I think we would look to entitle that over the next 2 to 3 years and be ready for a sale, pick a date.
Matthew McNulty
executiveLate this decade.
David deVilliers
executiveWhether it's '29, 2030, '28, it's definitely in the back half of this decade.
John Baker
executiveYes. Just to be clear about Fort Myers, the lease didn't expire in 2027. They've just got to get on the other side of that road. And they'll keep mining at Southeast pit, and we'll still collect a royalty. But the developable portion of that, they're going to be out of there by '27.
Operator
operatorAnother question within the development segment, you talked about Aberdeen and Hampstead. What end lending ventures or land endeavors, if you will. Going forward, as the company gets bigger, you execute these growth plans, do you think that, that historic activity that segment what you've done there. And within the geography, you know and have done there. Is that going to continue to be an activity for the company? Will it necessarily become even if it does a smaller part of your efforts as a company?
David deVilliers
executiveYes. I think it will become a smaller part, if not eventually go away. A lot of these things happen by Hampstead Overlook was initially going to be in an industrial development. And just looking at the market and everything, we said you know what, the higher and better use is residential and we pivoted and that's kind of how Hampstead Overlook came to be. Aberdeen Overlook. We are great at developing, we're great at finding partners. And at the time, we had a boatload of cash, and it was a great use of our cash. But moving forward, I think we have a really compelling plan and it's really focused on industrial and multifamily. And that kind of land lot sale will become, I think, less of an attribute to this company.
John Baker
executiveBut I think it's a remarkable example of kind of the entrepreneurship that culture of entrepreneurship that Big David established. That's outside of the box thinking. And it was a really, really effective way to generate cash when interest rates and money market rates were negligible, and we had a lot of cash sitting on our balance sheet.
Operator
operatorA follow-up question regarding the long-term forecast. Looking at some of the numbers presented. And while it's a long way away, and it certainly represents strong growth from where the company is right now. It looks like most of the change or the delta between '24 and '30 could be accounted for by your plans the Industrial and Multifamily, which, of course, are two big segments. So can you talk about how conservative or aggressive forecast to be and whether or not what could cause it to be better or stronger or worse than that? And what your assumption in those forecasts are for the Mining & Royalty segment?
David deVilliers
executiveI guess I'll start off with the Multifamily and the Industrial. We've planted a lot of seeds. We've got Lakeland and Davie that are starting. And we've got a bunch of cash earmarked to go after other industrial and doing all that stuff. It takes time. So I think a lot of the growth will happen later in this cycle, '28, '29, '30 when these projects are able to be under roof, tenants in stabilized, NOI flowing that just doesn't happen overnight. So a lot of our growth is going to happen in the back half. In terms of our assumptions, many of those assumptions I said we're looking 6.5%, 6.75% return on cost on these projects. If rental rates keep going up and construction pricing stays flat, we may do better than that, but I think that's a good 6.5%, 6.75% return on cost is a fair target for return on cost. So I do believe that we're able to do that, both at the Multifamily and Industrial level. With Multifamily, that pipeline we have, it's under our control. We don't have to go and find it. That's about picking the right time to start and making sure the market is there for us when we deliver. The Multifamily projects take us 25 to 30 months. So we really have to look out 2 to 3 years, look at the data, see what the tea leaves and crystal ball say and say, can we deliver this product at this time and have demand be there? And can we hit these return on cost targets? And I think we've been pretty good at that. So Multifamily and Industrial, I think our return on cost kind of thresholds are fair given the amount of products that we control. And as long as the market is there, we'll be able to create that value. We have in the past, and we look forward to doing it again.
John Baker
executiveYes, as far as the mining royalties budgeted, there's certainly some growth budgeted into that. But we have the ability to control what projects we invest in and the return on capital thresholds that we expect. If we continue as we've anticipated with this plan, that would generally say that you're in a positive economic environment and there'll be demand for -- from the commercial side, from housing starts, the infrastructure demand is there right now. Our volumes are getting towards capacity. So again, if demand maintains you're going to see pricing pressure, but I don't think that's what we want to make all our future decisions based on. This is -- it's an incredible cash flow stream, but I don't think we're going to make it an important capital allocation decision based on high expectations for the Mining & Royalties business, I think from a budgeting perspective and a projection standpoint. I think we've grown it pretty conservatively for the purposes of capital allocation decisions.
David deVilliers
executiveYes, we're planning.
John Baker
executiveYes.
Operator
operatorThis is last question. In your presentation, particularly in the Industrial & Commercial, but looking beyond that to Multifamily as well. You talked about, of course, Florida, South Carolina, Southeast shift areas of focus, but you did mention some other states like North Carolina, there's Georgia, where you're on the mining side. And of course, Maryland here. Can you talk about management, bandwidth capacity, balance sheet, financial capacity, the ability if there's -- if the economic environment provides it, there's an opportunity in all these spaces, how do you -- how are you going to manage growth opportunities? And also talk about the limits perhaps, if that's the right way to put it, your ability to chase opportunities and making decisions around those?
David deVilliers
executiveRight. I'll start with the management piece. The partners that we select, we have to have similar interest. We have to have an alignment of interest. We have to have similar cultures. We rely heavily on really good partners that are like ourselves to go into these new markets. They need to have boots on the ground. They need to be local, they need to know the landscape, the players and just how to do these things. We can't go into these new markets without them, and we found some great partners in MRP, in Woodfield from the multifamily standpoint and even Altman Logistics and Industrial in the South. So to get into these new markets, we're going to have to find a really good partner to be able to do that. That is the key to go into a new market is having the partner that knows that market that can be an extension of our culture and how we do things. And without that, we won't go into these new markets. That's one. Two, they've got to meet our checklist, right? They've got to be land-constrained markets, low vacancy rent growth. We got to be able to hit the returns that we've represented here today. So local management team meet our criteria. And then it's a decision if we want to go into that new market and feel as though we can go into that market, make a difference in scale. If we can do that, and there's a compelling reason to do that, then I think we would make that decision. Otherwise, we're going to stay where we are, stay in the markets that we're currently in and scale those to the best of our ability.
Operator
operatorJust a follow up on and finding a partner in the project. What comes first? Are projects brought to you and then you evaluate them and evaluate the potential partners? or do you find partners and try to work with them on the projects that they have? Just how does [ evolve ] going forward? Would you continue to work with a certain partners have successful experience or is growing a projects...
David deVilliers
executiveThe good news is that FRP has a pretty good reputation and we've been around for a while. And there's a lot of people that know about us and know what we do and we operate in Multifamily and Industrial. And it's kind of a fraternity or whatever you want to call it. Everyone does talk. So a lot of times, these things come to us. We see a ton of projects, Multifamily and Industrial. And you start establishing a relationship usually with one of these partners. Greystar, we have talked to them 10 years, 15 years, haven't found a project, but Greystar is -- they're a great platform, they're great people, just haven't found a project yet. So I think we spend a lot of time just in communication and then all of a sudden, a relationship is formed and at some point, a project comes that fits. So I really think it's you find a partner first, establish a relationship and then the project sort of comes from that initial relationship. It's how generally it happens. And if it's successful and the partnership is successful and you still have interests that are aligned, you typically do repeat that. We've done that in our Multifamily with MRP, and we've done that with Woodfield. So I think that's kind of how that happens.
John Baker
executiveWhole point of this exercise is to get, like I said, our investors and potential investors as fired up about this company as we are. I think this is a really exciting plan. It shows what's possible. It's not written in stone, and I think we'll pivot when and if things change. But this is our vision. These are the people. They're going to execute it, and we're really excited about where we're headed. Thanks.
David deVilliers
executiveThank you.
Matthew McNulty
executiveThank you.
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