Fubon Financial Holding Co., Ltd. (2881) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you for joining Fubon Financial's First Quarter '25 Results Meeting. In the briefing today, we will start with an overview of the first quarter results and followed by the embedded value of Fubon Life 2024. Please turn to Page 5 of the presentation. Firstly, regarding the business highlights. In the holding company, we announced a dividend plan of TWD 4.25 in cash and TWD 0.25 in stock dividend for the earnings distribution proposal of 2024, which is subject to the AGM approval on June 13. The earnings in the first quarter is up by 35% and reached TWD 41 billion, while the total assets reached TWD 12 trillion. In Fubon Life, the net profit reached TWD 27 billion and up 56% year-over-year. The FYPE is ranked the top and the FIP and total premium is ranked the second in the market, while the total investment return that reached 5.41%. In Taipei Fubon Bank, the net profit reached over TWD 10 billion and hit its historical high. The net interest income increased by over 10% and net fee income up by 19%. In Fubon Securities, the net profit of TWD 1.66 billion, that is down by 29% on back of the stock market volatility, both in Taiwan and also globally. In Fubon Insurance, the net profit, TWD 1.62 billion, that is up by over 20% and the written premium up by 14.7%. The investment return at over 11% mainly reflect the disposal gains from the reinvestment. In Page 6, the profitability that we can see the net profit and also the EPS, both top among the financial holding company peers. In Page 7, the net profit growth from the holding company came from subsidiaries, including Fubon Life, Taipei Fubon Bank, Fubon Insurance and also the overseas banking subsidiaries in Hong Kong and Fubon Bank China, while Fubon Securities down 29% in Q1. In Page 8, the total asset was over TWD 12 trillion or up by 5% and net worth increased by 2%. In Page 9, as a result of the earnings growth, the Q1's ROA and ROE both increased year-over-year. And in Page 10, regarding the ESG development. In the first quarter, we are awarded the top grade A rating by CDP for the fifth year in the holding company. And the major 4 subsidiaries all ranked top 25% in the local world. Next section, Fubon Life, starting from Page 12. FYP grew by over 23% and mainly from the participating policies growth that accounts for over half of the FYP. While the FYP renewal premium, total premium all ranked top 2 among peers and FYP exclusive of the investment-linked policy, they ranked the top. In Page 13, the product mix, more transition toward the higher CSM product that the regular pay policies also increased the share to over 63%. All the foreign currency policy also increased to 53% of the FYP and mainly from the U.S. dollar participating policies contribution. In Page 14, the FYPE grew by over 28%. And therefore, FYPE to FYP ratio increased to 49.4%. The VNB growth of 9.9% that mainly reflect the sales of the regular paid participating policy and also the product mix adjustment. In Page 15, the growth from channels that we can see the tied agent channel has a quite meaningful growth of 48% year-over-year, while the bancassurance FYP is top among the industry. In FYPE, the tied agents growth is quite meaningful at over 34% year-over-year. In Page 16, the investment portfolio, we can see the equity allocation from domestic and overseas that reflect the market volatility and also realized of capital gain and therefore, the proportion decrease. And while the cash position increased up to over 6%, that we maintain the level to dynamically to adjust the allocation according to the market condition going forward. In Page 17, the overseas fixed income, we focus on investment grade in corporate and financial bonds. While the adjustment is mainly to increase long-dated bond holding to increase the bond duration. In Page 18, the investment return, both before and after hedge and FX has increased, as we can see in the bottom of the table. While the capital gains from the equity investment increased in Q1 '25 on back of the market opportunity that we see through profit taking. And in Page 19, the U.S. dollars appreciate in Q1 that contribute the FX gain in the quarter. The recurring hedge cost also improved as the NT and USD are spread narrowing. As the NT appreciate starts from April, Fubon Life take a proactive approach to increase the hedge position by taking the NDF and also the proxy hedge. The naked dollar position, therefore, reduced from 27.2% in March in the pie chart and further down to 19% in April. While FX reserve in Fubon Life's balance is around TWD 9 billion in April. And as the very drastic NT dollar appreciation in the beginning of May and the currency market uncertainty. So Fubon Life plan to top up TWD 10 billion into the FX reserve pool under the old rule to strengthen its FX reserve base in the beginning of May. And also, the company aims to further enhance the hedge management flexibility. So Fubon Life applied for a new mechanism and get approval from regulator end of May. So there are TWD 8 billion of reserves that are transferred into the pool as a result. So a total of TWD 27 billion of FX reserve are available to offset the FX volatility in May. And strategically speaking, Fubon Life aims to deliver a long-term outperformance in its hedge cost through the balance of risk and also active approach in hedge portfolio management. And in Page 20, the positive spread between the cost of liability and investment return expanded as the investment return increased while the spread between the recurring return after hedge and also the breakeven point that turned positive in Q1 '25. In Page 21, the unrealized balance that decreased in Q1 is mainly due to the market fluctuation and also the realized gain from investment portfolio. While the equity-to-asset ratio, it was 10.6% and RBC remained strong at 428% in March. And next section, Fubon Capital, Fubon Bank. In Page 23, the total revenue was up by over 13%, contributed by the NII increase of over 10% year-over-year, mainly from the asset growth and also higher NIM, while the fee income increase of 19% from the wealth management and also the credit cards contribution. In Page 24, the total balance of credit outstanding was up by 8.3%, which is mainly driven by the retail loan of over 13% year-over-year increase. In Page 25, the corporate lending from FX loan grow faster at 9.7%. That is higher than the NT dollar loans of 2% growth. While in the NT dollar book, the SME is a key driver that increased by 14.1% and accounts for over 38% of the total corporate loans. In retail credit in Page 26, the mortgage increased by over 11%, mainly driven by the home equity. While other personal loans increased quite decently, mainly driven by the unsecured consumer loan growth of over 37%. In Page 27, on the deposit side, the overall deposit increased by 8% and driven by the foreign currency deposit of 17% year-over-year growth. While in the demand deposits contribution in FX deposit increased in Q1 and up to 31%. In Page 28, the first quarter's NIM is up by 2 bps year-over-year, mainly because of the loan deposit spread widening by 9 bps and the increase in NT dollar loan rate that offset the decrease in the financial asset yield, mainly due to the U.S. dollar's rate cut. On a Q-o-Q basis, the net interest margin in Q1 is up by 3 bps and loan deposit spread is up by 5 bps, mainly because of the higher foreign currency demand deposit contribution. In Page 29, the asset quality in Taipei Fubon Bank remained benign. And we can also see the quarterly provision cost came down mainly due to a lower general provision and also the reversal of the one-off corporate loans provision. In Page 30, the card spending is up by 2.1% on back of the Costco cards contribution and also overseas consumption. While the active cards are up by 3.1% year-over-year, the monthly per card spending slightly came down. And the NPL ratio remained quite stable. In fee income in Page 31, the net fee income up by 19%. Wealth management up by 20%, driven by the insurance and also the mutual funds. The credit card income up by 16%. On top of the card spending, we also have adjustment in the cards benefit. In overseas contribution to Taipei Fubon Bank, Page 32 shows the revenue up by 2.8%. While the combined revenue from NII and fee actually was up by over 12% year-over-year, but it was offset by the decline in the trading and derivative income. The asset quality remained benign, and therefore, the net profit was up by 4.2% year-over-year. In Fubon Securities in Page 34, the net profit is TWD 1.66 billion, down by 29% year-over-year due to the global and also Taiwan stock market volatility. While the market share of the major business lines and also the profit ranked among top 3. In Page 36, Fubon Insurance direct written premium is up by 14.7%. The market share reached 25.4% and remain as a top market leader. Its combined ratio continued to improve and down to 82.9%, and that really reflects our business structure and also our risk management improvement. In Fubon Bank China, the loan balance was up by over 16% year-over-year, mainly driven by the retail portfolio. While the net interest margin in Q1 up quite meaningfully by 123 basis points, that reflects the RMB and also the USD rate cut and also the improvement in the loans and deposit structure. While the net profit increased quite meaningfully reflect the NII increase, the bonds capital gains, while the asset quality remained stable. And next, let's move on to the embedded value of Fubon Life 2024. In Page 40, it shows the value creation summary for Fubon Life. The net worth increased by over TWD 100 billion due to a solid earnings contribution. The value of in-force before COC slightly increased by 1.1% and the cost of capital increased by around 7%, mainly due to the AUM increase. The embedded value exceeds TWD 1 trillion for the first time, that is a 15.4% growth. In '24, the VNB is TWD 25.7 billion, which has increased by 28.7%. That is with FYPE's growth and also VNB margins improvement to 23.4%. Fubon Life's strategy is to focus on regular pay and higher-margin protection product and also the effect of the sub-selling effect of the medical insurance sales that also helped to boost up the sales of the high-margin product. The embedded value per share on the holding company basis is TWD 78.6 and appraisal value per share is TWD 97.4 per share. In Page 41, it shows the movement for adjusted net worth. And this page shows the net worth movement between year '23 and '24 and how it is adjusted for the embedded value calculation. In 2024, the statutory book value is up by 24.8% and mainly from the earning contribution and also the financial assets appreciation of TWD 18.4 billion. The adjusted net worth is calculated similar as the previous years. The following adjustments are, firstly, the special reserve is added back as it is treated as available capital from the regulator's perspective. And secondly, the unrealized portion of the fixed income assets is adjusted to align with the book yield return assumption that we used for the [indiscernible] calculation. And thirdly is the market value appreciation for the self-use property is added back. In Page 42, the movement analysis for the value of in-force before cost of capital. The expected earnings and the required return, they explain how the VIF roll over 1 year, TWD 24.1 billion expected earning is transferred to the net worth and the unwinding of the 9% discounting rate, they contribute TWD 51.5 billion. And as we have a less favorable actuarial experience and this negative impact is both reflected in the noneconomic assumption and also the data change. The total is TWD 45.8 billion. This is primarily reflect a higher-than-expected surrender behavior across Taiwan market and especially for the U.S. dollar product due to the appreciation of the U.S. dollar and also the interest rate hike. Also, the claim cost assumption for the legacy health products has increased. That is to reflect the actual experience. And economic assumption changes that reflect various factors, including the positive impact from the U.S. dollar appreciation and also the negative ones from the change of the investment return assumption. The value of new business before cost of capital contribute additional of TWD 30 billion. And the year '24 VIF before cost of capital, therefore, reached TWD 588.7 billion or the growth of 1.1% compared to last year. In Page 43, the movement analysis for the VNB that we can see the same basis for VNB increased by 18.7%, mainly supported by the sales volume increase and also the improvement of the product mix. There is also improvement in the expense unit cost and morbidity assumption that led to a positive impact from the noneconomic assumption. In Page 44, the economic assumptions are summarized here for your reference. In Page 45 and 46, they show the investment return assumption for in-force block and also new business policies. The overall return assumption for value of in-force is slightly increased compared to previous years, mainly due to the higher interest rate in both the Taiwan and U.S. market compared to last year. And the ultimate assumption remains at the same level as the long-term view is unchanged. For NT dollar new policies, there is adjustment for higher short-term hedge cost with the yield pickup afterwards. In Page 47, the discount rate assumption. The methodology is the same as the previous practice. The parameters in the table derive the equivalent RDR less than 9%, while we use the discount rate of 9%, which is the same as last year for our value calculation. In Page 48, we follow the latest RBC regulation and determine the cost of capital at 200% RBC level. In Page 49 and 50, it shows the sensitivity result, which shows how these two major assumptions drive the changes to different value metrics. So this is the end of the presentation. If you would like to ask questions, please access Fubon's website in Fubon's Investor Relations under the first quarter '25 Analyst Meeting web page. And you may type in questions and management team will respond in the live audio meeting session or alternatively, please feel free to contact the IR team at [email protected]. Thank you.