Fugro N.V. (FUR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
February 28, 2025
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Mark Heine
executiveVery welcome to the 2024 full year results presentation of Fugro. A very welcome to everyone here in the room, but also online. Thank you for dialing in. We'll take you through a presentation today as normal. And then after that, we open up for questions for the people here available in the room. So let me start first by giving you a few highlights of the financials for 2024. We improved our margins significantly in the year, and Barbara will dive into some of the details showing you the regional split, but I can already say that we're very pleased that 3 out of the 4 regions actually produced double-digit margins. So this is good to see. And also good to mention that both Land and Marine have improved actually the margins compared to last year. Operating cash flow increased by 20%, also very good. And obviously, as a result of a good net result and cash generation, we are very pleased to announce the increase in the dividend to EUR 0.75 per share compared to obviously EUR 0.40 last year. The strong EBIT improvement also was developed with actually some headwinds in the Americas and the Middle East markets. In the Americas, obviously, we were confronted with lower activity in the United States, specifically due to the uncertainties around the elections. In the Middle East, we have spoken about that, the revenue was impacted by cautious spending from several oil companies, but also due to the conflicts in the region. Overall, we achieved a growth rate, currency comparable, of 3.6%. Some key highlights for 2024. We delivered in our -- or against our midterm targets. And that's important because those targets were set for 2027, and we already delivered the EBIT margin, free cash flow and also the ROCE, the return on capital employed well within those targets. And the strong bottom line performance is a direct consequence as our -- yes, of our resilient and well-diversified business, and I will show you later on how we now split in the different market segments and geographies. Over the past few years, we have significantly improved our performance and financial position. And we're well on track with implementing our new strategy, Path to Profitable growth, I will now show -- no, obviously, Towards the Full Potential. Path to Profitable Growth was our former strategy, still really embedded in my brain. Towards the Full Potential is our new strategy, and we're well on track in the first year delivering on that. We are having a good plan, and we'll stick to that plan. We're also well equipped to deliver on capturing emerging opportunities that we see across our markets, and I will also say a few more words about that a little bit later because we have also new market segments where we see opportunities. And that is done all under the, yes, probably, we could say, uncertain geopolitical environment and, for instance, also in the light of the setbacks that we see now, for instance, in the offshore wind in the United States. The market fundamentals in general for Fugro are strong for the mid and longer term. And with the world population growing by 25% to 10 billion, there's a lot of need for food, energy, water and, specifically, the demand for energy in the upcoming years will continue to grow. And that's, for Fugro, very important. And I will talk a bit more about how versatile we are to deliver services in the various energy markets. But also substantial infrastructure developments and addressing the climate change by adapting the environment is an important growth area for Fugro. Therefore, going forward, we are very confident that we can continue to deliver against our midterm targets. If we go beyond the financial targets here, a sheet that we have produced for you already in the past and also in the Capital Markets Day with nonfinancial targets, on the left side, the people, the more social-related topics. It's obviously very good to see that we managed to increase our employee engagement to 36. The eNPS, Net Promoter Score, moved up from, yes, from a lower to 36 now, and we have actually a target of above 30. We already reached that quite early in this whole period. Also, the turnover rate came down. So it's good to see that we have really made progress on the people side. People are obviously at the heart of Fugro. It's very important that we make progress there. On the net zero road map, we have a clear road map in place to further develop reduction of emissions. You can see here the results of our renewable target, EUR 860 million in renewables for the whole of Fugro. And also on the reduction of CO2, we make progress, although there will be fluctuation year in, year out. And especially now we have added a number of additional vessels, and you see a bit of a response in that specific reduction number right now. But over time, we will catch up again towards that midterm. It's also good that on the top-right side, you see the client engagement and the Net Promoter Score for delivering high-quality services at a very nice range of 61. So those are the targets that we have for non-financials for the midterm, and we'll continue to follow these and present to you how this is progressing over time. If I then come back on the strategy Towards Full Potential, we have 3 pillars in the strategy. And I want to dive into one of these pillars one by one. We have made very clear that the first pillar, growing and transforming with the current business, is going to generate in the midterm most of the value. The second pillar, expanding into development segments, there is lots of opportunities there. And we see that coming in, and that will start to generate returns in the next 3 to 5 years. And then we'll see that being more on the board and more visible. But also in the upcoming period, we'll already see projects obviously coming in. But to become more substantial, it will take a little bit longer. And last but not least, the third pillar there, building recurring revenue. I will give you a few examples there. That's really in the longer term, 5 to 10 years, to be significant generating returns for Fugro in the longer term. So first, the first pillar, grow and transform with our current business. First and foremost, on the right side, you see some data points, things that we have done over the last period of time. We have said that we want to expand our capacity. Specifically, you have seen the announcements around the geotechnical fleet. We have added since the Capital Markets Day, end of 2023, 3 additional owned vessels, geotechnical vessels. That program of expanding our owned capacity, so to say, on the geotechnical side is coming to an end. We're still modifying some of the vessels that we have bought. They will come to the market during the course of this year, and then we have basically coming to the end of this program. We've hired more than 2,000 people and trained those people, which is very important, as I said, because the knowledge of Fugro is really in the heart of our professionals that we have working for us. If you talk about transforming the capabilities, then this is very much related to also the remote solutions that we're bringing in. We're bringing in these uncrewed service vessels to do things from a distance with no people out there in the hazardous environment. So it's better for the CO2 emissions. It's better for the safety side for the people. We are more efficient. We can have the data quicker to the customer. So there are a lot of things that we're doing there remotely. This is not only the uncrewed service platforms, it's also the positioning work that we do, the navigation work, the construction support work that we do more and more remotely out of our control centers. Another good one to mention is the opportunity that we have with a new technology that we're developing, which is called GroundIQ, and that's on the Land business side. This is a geophysical nonintrusive system where we can actually measure also geotechnical parameters in the subsurface combined with drilling and cone penetration, and we can provide similar parameters as we would normally do for site investigation and site screening purposes. And this is quite revolutionary. We have some patents on it as well. And if we're really successful, and we're running a number of projects now, and we see the successes coming in, if we can expand further on this, then we really will make a difference also on the land side, changing the way the data is collected for larger and complex projects, speeding up the answers for our customers, also making it more efficient and more cost effective. And then we are doing all sorts of things for the, yes, the optimization, digitalization of processes, but also our laboratories are becoming more sophisticated, more automated. And also, in general, we're really driving that operational efficiency up. If we move then to the second pillar, the development -- developing segments, and these are in our existing markets, but they offer us opportunities. We have a few listed here on the board. I want to quickly mention them. First and foremost, you have seen the announcement on the acquisition that we have done, Earth Observation capabilities in EOMAP that we have recently acquired. This is really adding capacity as we announced in our strategy to add specific -- yes, complementing our services with, yes, expertise and technologies that we do not have in-house. And this is a company that we were using already as a supplier for multiple projects, and it's really strengthening our portfolio of services right now. A bit adjacent in the ocean health business, we are actually doing already a lot of environmental baseline studies. We are also there further developing the capabilities on the biodiversity side. So we can do more for any project out there at sea to do these environmental baseline studies and to actually monitor what is happening with the underwater environment and basically the flora and fauna in those areas. If we then move to CCS, carbon capture, usage and storage projects, we see those popping up almost everywhere in the world now. We have already done projects in the Gulf of Mexico, in Indonesia, India, Norway, U.K., Netherlands, many places we have been involved in CCS projects, and it's coming up now in discussions almost everywhere. Two weeks ago, I was in Brazil. Also, Petrobras is now doing pilot projects with CCS. Everywhere where you have normal developments of oil and gas, they will probably combine it with some carbon capture and storage work. But also certain energy companies are specifically looking at, for instance, direct air capture or other ways to store CO2, buy it from the market, store it, it's actually a new service, a new business area that they see developing. If you then look on the right side, we haven't heard too much about that yet, but maybe you picked up from the news that we have been doing some pilot projects with defense here in the Netherlands to do some work on our USV to see how we can do inspections of existing infrastructure on the seabed, critical infrastructure on the seabed. And we see some more opportunities out there. Obviously, we all understand what is happening. We read the newspapers. And there's a lot required there in the North Sea, but also in other areas of the world. And Fugro is doing inspection and monitoring work for decades already everywhere in the world, and this is our core expertise. So we see opportunities to work together with the government to supply these services as well. So I would advise you to follow Fugro carefully in the upcoming periods because we'll have some more news to share with you. If we then go to the third pillar of our strategy, also to give you some progress and details on that, this is really based on changing the portfolio of Fugro. So we are a 90-plus percent project-based company, and we have set in our strategy rollout that we want to become a different type of business where we probably will go to 70% projects and maybe 30% recurring revenue based on Geo-data on software and hardware solutions. So we see some examples here on the board. I will name a few. For instance, GeoDin, which was a golden nugget that we developed already years ago in Fugro in Germany, we have now repackaged, rewritten the software package GeoDin, combined it also with the services that Autodesk is delivering. And this really allows us to expand the skill and scale it up and have more clients that really work on the infrastructure side, development of infrastructure to really look properly at the geotechnical data, geophysical or the borehole data because that's better stored and they can use that in a better manner. So it's a great example of what we're doing in this field. It will take a little bit longer, but it's really progressing. On the other side, you see some hardware-related and data solutions. TotaLite is a great example. We developed also a patented solution, very revolutionary to change traditional land survey technologies to do monitoring, millimeter, sub-millimeter monitoring for tunnels, bridges, roads, all these kind of things, movements, settlements, we can measure. So this is now going through several pilot projects, and we expect in the upcoming years that we can further scale this up and expand the production of these systems. SeaWatch Early Warning systems, those solutions are based on our existing buoys that we have. We spoke about the wind LiDAR buoys where we do wind measurements, but we can use those buoys also with different sensors, with different technology on the buoys and maybe we can even use them to do some monitoring and see what is happening on the surface or even on the subsurface. So we're investigating and working on some programs there as well. So those are the 3 pillars of our strategy. We're really progressing very well with that strategy Towards Full Potential. Then talking about the diversity of our business and our markets that we serve. This is one of my favorite slides, as you know. We have a very nicely diversified portfolio of markets that we serve now, 37% oil and gas, 38% renewables and the rest, infrastructure and water, close to 25% or 25%. So you see on the right side, a very nice spread of different clients that we serve. And this is also very important because we can move between the clients, we can move between the markets. It's the same expertise that we deliver. So one of the things we'll talk about a little bit later around the Americas, okay, if it's shifting from offshore wind to oil and gas or LNG or maybe some other work, we can shift our assets and people to different markets. This is very important because this makes Fugro now a very resilient company, and it's actually shown also in the fourth quarter in 2024 results where we show that we can make money even if the markets actually change and move. So it's very important to see how this is developing further. Some showcase projects maybe to mention, also always good to have some tangible examples. I'm not going to dive into all of them. You see, I was in Brazil. We have now launched the first USV, uncrewed service vessel, in Brazil. So we are doing the first projects with Petrobras right now. We launched or we opened up a remote control center there as well. And this is just the start of where this business is going because there's a lot required there. Brazil is a growing country with the services that are required there. And I think this is a great example of how we are further developing our expertise in different markets and different segments. Also in the middle there, on the right side, you see the wind development in Japan. We'll talk a little bit more about wind. But definitely, in Japan, you see that progressing as well. It's still on the board, and it will continue to develop. And they have a high ambition for renewable, yes, energy development there. On the right side, even an example on CCS carbon capture project. Okay. I would like to dive into the markets a little bit more in detail. This is a very full slide. On the left side, maybe some generic information on the global trends. I don't have to necessarily dive into those in detail because I think we all read the newspaper. We obviously see a lot of things happening on the macroeconomic side with changes in inflation, inflation coming down, still high in some countries, but also concerns around the economic slowdown in China that might affect actually the global growth. And then if we look at energy transition, you see obviously changes in the world. We just spoke about Americas, I will come back on that. But you also see that there's maybe some shifts. Now we see the clean infrastructure deal in Europe, basically an answer from Europe on a conference that was held 2 years ago, the North Sea Summit, where companies, I was there myself as well, where companies and governments came together to say, what do we need to do to further enhance the development of offshore wind in Europe? And there were a lot of recommendations given by companies there. And basically, this is the answer to it. So we see this as a positive development where now this is also really stimulated to further pick up again in Europe, which is needed because some of the operators are obviously looking very carefully at what project is economically viable to develop and what not. But be careful, we also said for the last couple of years, some of these projects or these ambitions are so high, there is actually no capacity to deliver on that. So it's actually also not bad that, that market is maturing and actually deciding, okay, what is economically viable and what's not. So I think it's a great answer from Europe to what is happening now in the Americas, and investments that maybe are not done by operators in the Americas might now move to Europe, creating a better environment. So let me dive into some of these markets, starting with offshore wind. So offshore wind globally, first and foremost, it's important to understand how much Fugro does in offshore wind. We just saw it, EUR 863 million is in the renewables business, which is the majority is offshore wind. How is that spread around the world? You see that on the left side of this picture. 20% of the EUR 863 million is in the Americas, in the Americas, not in the U.S., but in the Americas. So if you talk about how much is that of the total revenue of Fugro, so 7% of the total revenue of Fugro is offshore wind business in the Americas. Now 65%, this is the majority of our renewables business, is in Europe. And then the rest is in Asia Pacific and a little bit happening in Middle East, India. And if I talk about Middle East, India, it's specifically India that is developing all these opportunities because they have a very large project on the board of 37 gigawatts by 2030. That's very ambitious, and that's really starting right now because they are already several years working on it, and now we see that this is progressing. So on the Americas, I will come back with another slide and to dive into a bit more detail and say you a few more things about it. I already mentioned for Europe, yes, the wind power package or the clean infrastructure deal that is now launched. We see that this market will continue to develop with the comment that, obviously, the market is maturing and that operators are also more critical in where to develop and what is economically viable and whatnot. If we talk about Americas, I will dive into that. But specifically, it's not only the U.S.A. that has opportunities there. There's also Latin America. We see big opportunities there in Colombia, for instance, but also in Brazil, specifically Brazil, where they're really starting to develop the offshore wind capabilities now. Asia Pacific is continuing. I already mentioned Japan, but also in Korea, still very buoyant, Taiwan as well. Australia is happening, several licenses are out there. How much will be built? We'll have to see in the future, but at least the investigations, the ground investigations are done in several fields there as we speak. Then we also see Philippines, Vietnam coming in probably in a few years from now. That will take a little bit longer. And I already spoke about India. If we then go to the Americas and specifically the U.S.A., what is happening there? And obviously, we get a lot of questions. Once again, 7% of the total revenue of Fugro is in offshore wind in the Americas, not specifically in the U.S. And then we see basically 3 categories. You have projects that have licenses and that have a power purchase agreement. So they're already going. And those projects will very likely continue and they are continuing as we speak. Then you have projects that have licenses but do not have a power purchase agreement. So you have nobody that wants to take the power for a certain price from the operator. That is obviously still a problem. And those will be probably affected to some extent right now and they put on pause as they say. And then we have many projects, 28 projects here on the board that are no licenses or they have no licenses and that have no power purchase agreements. And those are obviously now at stake and will influence the amount of marine site characterization work that needs to be done in the upcoming period. Now this business is reliant on a lot of blue-collar workers and the whole industry in the U.S. as well. So it is still a bit of a question mark how this further develops because in the upcoming period, policies need to be written. There's a lot of narrative from the new President out there, but this needs to be translated into policies. And those policies will be all written in the reconciliation bill that comes out midyear. And there, we will see how these policies exactly pan out to be. And then you can say, okay, which projects will continue or will not continue, et cetera, et cetera. But we do see already that the bottom part of this picture will impact certainly the beginning of this year or the starting, and we do see that this will be paused for longer. We already saw cancellation also of a project in the fourth quarter, which has also affected directly our numbers in the fourth quarter in the U.S. So if we then zoom out again a little bit, not the United States only, but Americas, then we see lots of opportunities in the United States and in the Americas. And we have categorized this for you. I will not step through everything, but you can see how much opportunities these markets have markets. And obviously, we grow with the market. So we see more opportunities if the markets grow faster. Oil and gas is coming back for sure. We see deepwater coming back in, in Latin America, but also in the United States, it's being discussed. So in the last couple of years, on the Biden administration, we only saw 3 licenses issued in the Gulf of Mexico. And now compared to maybe Trump's first period, there were more than 40 licenses in a similar period issued. So there's a big difference. So we can clearly see that oil and gas will be unleashed, if you want to call it like that. And then gas, also natural gas, liquid natural gas, LNG will continue to go back on the board. So we had the Biden ban over the last couple of years, that is now lifted. But still, also these markets are waiting for policies and for clear descriptions how these will further develop. So -- and that's applicable also for certain areas of the infrastructure where we see lots of opportunities on critical minerals, very high on the agenda for the United States and for the world, Europe as well, to really not be dependent on China or Russia in that field. Another I want to mention, and I already did, is the carbon capture storage. We do see that the administration there in the U.S. is also stimulating these policies because they see opportunities for the large energy companies. Water, climate and nature, we still feel in the Americas, there are lots of opportunities that we can further develop. So if I zoom out again and talk about the markets in general, and these are, yes, market pictures that are generated from the standard databases, 4C Offshore, Rystad and those kind of things, so this is a snapshot what it is today. If you wait a quarter, then you will have slightly different numbers again. But I think it's important to say that in the mid to longer term, the market fundamentals for Fugro are positive. And we also see that in our developments in the business. We have said, we are affected, obviously, certainly in the beginning of this year, in 2025, or in the first period of this year by what is happening in the United States at the moment and also maybe settling in some of these new markets further developing. But in overall, we gave the guidance, and we'll come back on that, that we will grow in 2025. So important for this picture is, and I want to emphasize that again, the world needs energy, and energy means development. And for Fugro, it does not matter if it is oil and gas, traditional energy, LNG or offshore wind. We always say the world should stop with coal, should reduce oil, accept gas and accelerate renewables. And with that, I would like to close out this session and hand over to Barbara for more details on the financials.
Barbara P. Geelen
executiveThanks, Mark, and welcome all. Thanks for joining us in the room and also on the webcast. As usual, I would like to start with a quick glance of the highlights of our results, only making a couple of brief observations and elaborate further when presenting the following slides. We realized strong bottom line results in a year in which our top line growth was slightly lower than anticipated. We realized a strong improvement in our EBITDA and EBIT. And in 3 out of 4 regions, we posted double-digit EBIT margins, both in marine and land activities. The increase in EBITDA has translated to a EUR 66 million higher operating cash flow, a 20% improvement. And we raised our dividend to EUR 0.75 per share. And as Mark pointed out earlier, we delivered well against our midterm targets, an EBIT margin of 13.8%, free cash flow of 7.1% and a ROCE of 18.1%. So let's look at the trajectory, and this is a slide which shows the last 12 months. And here, you can clearly see the structural year-on-year improvements in our margins and that we delivered these in the last couple of years. And in combination with the top line expansion during the last years, we have a solid base going forward. And if we look at the same time period on a quarter-by-quarter basis, we've also been able to improve significantly. On a quarterly basis for Q4 '24, we have been able to show a year-on-year top line growth of 1.8% currency comparable growth and an EBIT margin expansion in Q4 from 12.2% to -- from which -- in '24, which was 11.5% in '23. And now let's look at the underlying regional performance. Let's first look at marine. Marine revenue growth amounted to 5.5%, enabled by the expansion of the geotechnical fleet. Overall, our vessel utilization was 70%, and the margin expanded to 15.9%. In Europe-Africa, we saw a strong growth in site characterizations, mainly in offshore wind and the construction and support business. And this has translated into a further margin improvement, as you can see in the bridge, also as a result of favorable terms and conditions and strong operational performance. If we look at the Americas, you can see that revenues were significantly impacted last year. This was caused by the election year and the pausing of, in particular, offshore wind projects caused by the uncertainty in change of administration. And due to strong and strict cost control, the region was able to maintain its margin, as you can see. In Asia Pacific, the third region, we saw strong growth in both the geotechnical site investigation for both oil and gas and offshore wind clients and more inspection and monitoring campaigns for oil and gas infrastructure, and the latter drove the margin improvement. And finally, in the Middle East, revenue and margin was strongly impacted by ongoing regional conflicts and cautious client spending compared to a very busy 2023 with the Lower Zakum project. And then we move into land. Land revenue decreased slightly by 2.2%, but it's encouraging to see that the margin improved to 7%. And this is what we've been working on and focusing on, and we've communicated before about this. We're not happy with the land margins, and we're working to improve those. In Europe-Africa, the revenue and margin expansion was mostly driven by nearshore projects. And the onshore site investigations restructuring in the U.K., which we did around last summer, had a negative revenue impact of EUR 17 million and a positive impact of EUR 2 million. So you see a decrease on the top line, but an increase on the profitability. In the Americas, revenues and EBIT on land were lower as a consequence of the continued slow nearshore LNG market in the U.S. We've been talking quite a lot about it when the Biden ban was lifted. And that return of that market has been slower than anticipated. In Asia Pacific, we executed a major offshore wind project, which was nearshore in Japan, and that was partly offset, that good result, by the slow infrastructure market in Hong Kong. And in the Middle East, we saw a scale-back of some very large projects in Saudi Arabia. And still, as you can see, we have been able to improve the margin due to better project delivery. And now briefly some highlights of the 2024 bottom of the P&L. You can see that net finance costs decreased with EUR 47 million due to foreign exchange gains, and this was primarily related to the appreciation of the U.S. dollar compared to the devaluation in '23. If we look at the tax line, just like last year, we have been able to recognize previously unrecognized tax losses due to the improved business outlook. We have also recognized an additional liquidation loss related to Seabed and a positive impact related to the tonnage tax regime. And this adds then up to EUR 43 million compared to what was EUR 39 million in '23, where we activated a lot of the deferred tax assets, mainly in Singapore and the U.S., and the liquidation loss in Seabed, quite a big move. Bottom line, we report the highest net results in more than 10 years in '24. Cash flow. Free cash flow as a percentage of revenue, 7.1%, which is well within our midterm target range of 6% to 9%. Operating cash flow before working capital increased by EUR 66 million, and this increase was offset by higher capital expenditure. And I will get back on CapEx on the next slide. On the right side, you can see our working capital development. Thanks to an enhanced and cash -- billing and cash collection, we realized a significant reduction, and I'm quite pleased about that. We're managing the working capital in the range, as mentioned before, between 10% to 15%, lowest and always being the end of the year, highest always at midyear. So we are very pleased with the 7.6%. This does include some one-offs. Without those, we would be closer to 9%; in any event, a very excellent performance. If we look at CapEx, CapEx was EUR 242 million, and that excludes the EUR 23 million for the new head office that we're building. And it's just below our guidance of EUR 250 million for the full year of '24. A significant part of the transformation and expansion CapEx is related to the expansion and conversion of our geotechnical fleet in '24. We had the delivery and the conversion of the Zephyr, formerly known as the Sea Goldcrest; the finalization of the conversion of both the Fugro Resilience and Resolve. And this expansion has already in '24, as mentioned by Mark, contributed significantly to the bottom line and the cash generation, which is an important enabler of the success for our geotechnical business. In 2025, we anticipate capital expenditure of around EUR 100 million for maintenance and sustaining CapEx and around EUR 150 million, again, for ongoing expansion and transformation. And that -- the speed of transformation, and I've said this before, it's really also dependent on the pace of the development of the opportunities that we see in the market. And Mark just highlighted some new segments. And we all, as mentioned, read the newspaper, and there's some opportunities we see in that. So that transformation, that path, we will continue on. And of course, all CapEx is subject to strict capital return guidelines. And as communicated on the Capital Markets Day, we have a very clear capital allocation policy on how we allocate CapEx to certain buckets. Then we dusted off some slides from the Capital Markets Day to show our progress regarding our asset portfolio strategy and capital allocation. And as you know, we are investing in a gradual shift of our asset base towards asset-lighter and low-carbon solutions such as uncrewed service vessels. Around 40% of our revenue, including our land business, has a relatively low asset intensity, and we target a further decrease over time by increased utilization of remote and noninvasive technologies. Around 60%, on the right-hand side of the slide, is relatively asset-intensive. And in that, we target a healthy balance between owned and chartered vessels. And this provides us with the security of supply on the one hand and flexibility towards the future on the other hand, with chartered vessels acting as a flexible layer to remain agile when market conditions change. And we are on track with the asset-lighter strategy. The marine geotechnical activities are the most capital-intensive part of the business. That's the top layer. The offshore wind market, in particular, has a sizable need for mapping and soil composition via the extraction and testing of soil samples. Today and in the medium term, these activities cannot be executed with smaller and/or uncrewed platforms and will, therefore, remain asset-intensive in the near term. In order to ensure capacity to cater for the future demand, we have invested in the expansion. And this has already, as I just mentioned, contributed significantly to the results in '24, and hence, also the green checkmark, as communicated in the CMD. If you look at the bottom 2 rows for our marine geophysical and the inspection and monitoring business, we're gradually moving towards uncrewed and remote operations. Today, we have 10 USVs, uncrewed service vessels, and we're working on a further fleet expansion through the development of larger USVs with longer endurance and deepwater capability. We believe this is where the future lies, and that's why we are investing in that. And on the asset integrity side, we target 5 to 10 additional USVs, including the 18-meter Blue Eclipse. For the site characterization, the geophysical work, we target also 5 to 10 additional USVs, including the 16-meter Blue Prism. So we continue to invest in the next generation with an asset-lighter strategy. Now let's look at the balance sheet, which is strong by any measure, I would say, driven by solid cash generation. Our balance sheet continued to strengthen further. Our leverage at year-end is 0.2x. And our strong financial position enables us to execute on our strategy by investing in sustainable growth to provide attractive return to shareholders. It also gives us the agility to make decisions for the future of Fugro. Towards year-end, we arranged a new financing package. This is now unsecured, which is good. We got better terms and conditions, which is also good. And the debt maturities are now in '29. Again, that gives us flexibility. Just to reiterate the capital allocation framework that we have, we will remain and stick to it. We will invest for sustainable growth, make balanced and consider investment decisions for the current business and the future business to achieve our strategic objectives. We are selective regarding M&A, which we've said before. And we, for both categories, continue to look how we can accelerate our strategy. We also want to maintain a strong balance sheet, and that means leverage below 1.5x, and keep sufficient liquidity in the business. As I mentioned, we have working capital swings throughout the year. We need at all times to keep sufficient liquidity in the business to keep it funded and also to cater for further growth. And then lastly, we target attractive returns for shareholders with dividend payout of EUR 0.75 at 30%, which is well within our range of the payout policy. Then the outlook, that's also important in an uncertain world. First of all, I want to reiterate that we are fully focused on achieving our strategy Towards Full Potential. The key fundamentals in our key core markets remain strong, offshore wind, oil and gas and infrastructure. But also, we see emerging market segments, coastal resilience, carbon capture and storage, critical minerals and surveillance of critical infrastructure. This offers really great growth potential for Fugro. And for '25, what does that mean? We expect to deliver EBIT margins within the range of 11% to 15%, free cash flow between 6% to 9% and a ROCE above 15%. And as a market leader in our markets, we anticipate growing with our markets, resulting in revenue growth for the full year, however, limited by the current dynamics in the U.S., specifically impacting the first part of the year. Overall, as you can expect from us, we will continue to be proactive and adapt and take actions as required in a very fast-changing political, economical and social landscape. And with that, I would like to thank you and open the floor for questions.
Mark Heine
executiveThank you very much, Barbara.
Mark Heine
executiveYes, I see a first hand.
Unknown Analyst
analystMaybe -- first of all, congratulations on the very strong results. First question, maybe on the EBIT margin guidance. I would like maybe to better understand what's the path towards 15%. And on the other hand, what headwinds could lead you towards more the bottom end of the range? So if you could maybe speak a bit to that, that would be helpful.
Barbara P. Geelen
executiveYes, I can start. On the margin target, we're very early in the year. So the 11% to 15% is also a reason to be on the board. As I mentioned, in the U.S., and also mentioned by Mark, still a lot of things have to be filled in. So that plays a role. What also plays a role is our operational excellence in moving up. This was definitely part of our EBIT margin expansion in '24. And what you can also see is the -- especially in the U.S., if you see the EBIT margin despite the top line decrease on the strict -- very strict cost control. So we'll have to there be more agile in a fast-changing environment. If we do that well and the top line is there and we continue to focus on execution, we could end up at the higher stage. I would like to reiterate these are margin targets for '27. We have delivered on them today and actually also last year. But the challenge and our task is to continue to deliver these margins and to grow them over time as we move into priority 2 and 3, whereby the recurring revenue from subscription will increase over time, which will impact margins positively as well, as well expected for the new segments. I don't know if you want to add something, Mark?
Mark Heine
executiveNo, I think it's always a combination of the mix of services that you're going to supply. So we see obviously new services, Barbara spoke about the Pillar 3 type of services with Geo-data as a Service, hardware, software solutions, they might have higher margins. At the same time, you might get certain markets becoming a bit more under pressure on pricing. So that is a balance, i.e., that mix is very difficult, obviously, now to say exactly for what does that mean for '25 or '26 as a whole. In general, we're obviously moving in a direction where, as Barbara said, do a lot on operational excellence, commercial excellence. Those are the key elements, enablers for our strategy development. Also in our strategy, we have really good programs in place for further digitalization, for further remote solutions. And those kind of things should, in principle, drive margins up. At the same time, you see that other effect potentially being more a headwind. There could be a certain region like the Americas now as we see or that could be a specific market being a bit more under pressure. So that is very difficult to say upfront where that is going. Obviously, if we go down from where we are in 2024, that will be a disappointment for us, but you can see that moving around a little bit, and it's very difficult to give -- to pinpoint that more exactly right now. Then we go to our next question.
Thijs Berkelder
analystThijs Berkelder, ABN AMRO ODDO BHF. Congrats with the strong Q4 results. Can you maybe explain what you booked in Japan, what you did in Japan? Was it for Mitsubishi?
Mark Heine
executiveOkay. So in Japan, actually, we already have a local presence, a company for many years, I think probably more than 25 years. And initially, that entity was there for helping Japanese clients outside of Japan. However, over the last couple of years, we see the developments in Japan coming up where they really need external support to develop the wind business now. This is a complex environment, a very long coastline, very often remote as well what they're doing. So we have been involved from the first few pilot projects, the first licenses for Mitsubishi as well and others involved. You see now that more licenses come to play. And we work for multiple clients there. Actually, the whole industry ask for our services. Sometimes it's weather services like the buoys, as you are familiar with, to do wind measurements for a period of time, but we're also getting involved in the site characterization work there and also in the installation work where they now have installation barges already first installing the first monopiles.
Thijs Berkelder
analystOkay. Good to hear. Just checking whether it was a settlement or so. Market investors probably want to get more grip on your guidance '25. In this last slide, you specifically warn for the first half of the year. Does it mean that you're not expecting growth in the first half? How -- or not in Q1? How should we see that?
Mark Heine
executiveYes. I fully appreciate that everybody wants to know what is happening in the world and where this is going. And if I knew exactly, I would tell you more exactly where this is going. So obviously, on purpose, we have chose the wording that are on the sheet because certain things will move and change over time. And we just spoke about the Americas and the U.S., in particular, where certain policies still need to come in play, so to say. So it is very difficult to very exactly or more exactly say how much impact, when is it exactly stopping. So therefore, we chose those words very carefully. We see growth, and we wanted to give that confirmation, we see growth for 2025. We also see that, obviously, the effect of what is happening right now and the unclarity that there is available at the moment in certain areas, specific areas. So it's not like the whole world is on fire, not at all. We see very specifically in the Americas, and we have named that specifically some unclarity and uncertainty what is happening and how fast that is going, that development, like oil and gas coming back or LNG coming back or critical minerals. So there are lots of opportunities we spoke about. But how fast is that coming to play? Nobody knows. And that is also what we have said before. Obviously, we're all waiting to see every day what the new President has brought to the market again to see how we should respond to it. But the key thing is whatever happens, and we saw that also in 2024, we will respond to it because in the latter part of last year, the Americas region did extremely well in managing their cost properly and coming out with a double-digit EBIT margin even under a lot of pressure with the revenues coming down. And maybe good to mention because Barbara, and I wanted to add that, spoke about the geotechnical fleet. One of the things that we do, we can continuously adapt ourselves as well. So we have added our own capacity to our own capacity with vessels that we bought over the last couple of years. We have added actually 7 vessels to our own capacity. Some of them were on lease. So yes, the Scout and the Voyager were leased assets. We brought them back in our own portfolio. So it's not necessarily additional capacity. We also hired some lease -- or we leased some assets. Now in the Americas, because of what's happening, we just let go at the end of the period of the HOS Browning, we let go of that contract. So we're now demobilizing the HOS Browning because we see in the upcoming period, we don't need her. So this is also how we can respond and how we can stay flexible and adapting ourselves, and we spoke about that in the past, and we keep that flexibility to respond quite rapidly to the market dynamics.
Thijs Berkelder
analystI see a small mistake in your press release, Page 5. You still talk about Gulf of Mexico, but...
Mark Heine
executiveWell, we have the feeling that that's not a mistake, but it's all up to you how you want to interpret it. But we will continue to talk about the Gulf of Mexico.
Thijs Berkelder
analystA follow-on question on your order intake. I'm making the calculations, I conclude your marine order intake in Q4 was down 28% year-over-year. U.S. or -- sorry, Americas, minus 76%; and Europe, minus 8%. Are clients -- all majors, we all see the announcement, the news, they are all puzzling, they are back to the drawing table. Are they, in your view, delaying their contracts, waiting? Or are they renegotiating their contracts with you on better terms? How should we see that?
Mark Heine
executiveYes. So there are a couple of facts, obviously, in the previous years where we came out of a period of post-COVID and then an enormous ramp-up of activity in offshore wind, specifically, especially Europe, obviously, particularly renewable business growing after the conflict in the Ukraine. So this had an enormous boost. So it's still on a high level. And therefore, I think we need to be careful that we say, okay, we expect every year a certain growth or panic when the growth is not as large as it was before. So this is an important element. Secondly, what we see is that, for sure, there are key operators, energy companies, and you have seen the news. And obviously, BP just made an announcement going back out of renewables. Shell has done this before Equinor made a statement. So we're obviously following the news very carefully as well. But that doesn't mean that this business is not progressing, but people are very much more critical in where do they invest and where they not invest because they need to make sure that they have an economically viable project. And we have seen also some licenses brought to the market by countries that nobody actually subscribe to. So this is also a maturing market phenomenon. So this is one thing. Secondly, I think with the backlog, you always need to be a little bit careful because there will be fluctuations, and it's a momentum where you say, okay, now at the end of the year, we want to see what the backlog exactly is. And it's very much influenced by particular projects. So if there's a project that we're bidding for and we didn't got the award yet, then it has quite a bit of an effect on the backlog. So I want to also caution people not to draw all the time very specific conclusions to one moment in time backlog. So we'll see that fluctuating, and we're obviously keeping a close eye on that. But we see still, as we said, in Europe, a lot of interest and certainly also with the clean infrastructure deal, we do expect that people will benefit from that and that, yes, the renewables business also in Europe will continue to flourish. There might be sometimes pauses in certain countries for sure. That is absolutely true. And we have seen that in the past as well.
Thijs Berkelder
analystIn the past, you reported a percentage of your order backlog being fixed contracts versus, let's say, flexible or framework agreements. What is the percentage right now, roughly?
Mark Heine
executiveI don't have that number exactly, so I cannot say it to you. What we see is that we have also contracts, and we'll try to become more clear on it because also the market wants to see, okay, what is multiyear, what is maybe a subscription that comes back. So we're very much aware of that, that this is important information to get comfort around backlog. At the same time, I would say, and that is in particular to Fugro, is that if you understand the business well and you follow us for a long time, you understand how the dynamics work because, yes, we don't have a very long backlog that has also benefits, certainly if the market comes down because you can renew your contracts quickly or, yes, on the pricing side. But we don't have, similar to construction companies, a very long backlog where they know already for the next 1 or 2 years, how it is going. So it can fill up fairly quickly. And in some areas, even for the geotech, we have a longer backlog than for geophysics, it's shorter. So you need to understand those market dynamics. And for land business, it can be even shorter in some ways. But we'll have a look at that because we will continue to report and give certainty to the market around, okay, what is possible there on the recurring longer-term framework agreements, for instance. Barbara? Or sorry, Catrien, you wanted to make a comment?
Catrien van Buttingha Wichers
executiveFirst, we have received a couple of questions via the webcast. So I would like to ask a couple of questions on behalf of David Kerstens from Jefferies. Four questions. About the U.S., have you encountered any project cancellations? And do you foresee a return to normal activity levels in the second half? The second question is about offshore wind CapEx. You show a CapEx CAGR of 18%, whereas it was 24% when you presented in Q3. David's question is, is that fully explained by the pause in U.S. activity or other regions slowing down as well? With regards, the third question, to the Middle East, order backlog increased by 36%. Do you indeed anticipate a strong recovery this year in that region? And then finally, about the margin outlook, what will drive a further improvement in profitability from the current record high levels in combination with a more cautious revenue outlook in the near term?
Mark Heine
executiveOkay. Thank you very much, David, for your questions. I will step through, and Barbara will jump in probably halfway as well. Maybe first around the U.S. So did we see cancellations? Yes, we saw very -- one specific cancellation in the fourth quarter, a project that we had in our books and that we were not executing on anymore. So that's one thing. Secondly, yes, as I explained already in the sheet, and I think I gave quite a lot of information there, projects that were maybe coming in for site characterization work, everything is put on pause. And some of these projects are probably paused for multiple years for new administration to come back. So let me be clear about that. That's maybe not a cancellation in total, but it's certainly a cancellation for 1 or 2 years or maybe even longer. So they are not talking about cancellations there. Secondly, we also do expect that certain things will continue after the clarification that will come in with the policies as well. So we don't think that this business will completely come to a grinding halt. However, we do expect certainly impact. Does that mean that it goes back in the second half to normal? No, it does not go back to normal. It will move to different industries for our Fugro business to deliver different market solutions or different solutions to different markets, oil and gas, CCS, critical minerals, infrastructure, all these kind of things we mentioned before. We then talk about the CAGR of offshore wind. So we present a CAGR. And once again, this is database what you see. So this is database from 4C Offshore. So it's not Fugro that anticipates a growth of a particular percentage. This is a database CAGR on average for the upcoming years. In Q3, it was 24%; now it's 18%. And you tell me what 4C Offshore is going to do after the first quarter, I do not know. But I can tell you, they change all the time. So I said in the past, and I was not allowed to say that anymore, the only certainty you have, it will be wrong. So then on the third side, the revenue growth or the backlog growth on the Middle East, 36%, correct. Do we expect a recovery? For sure, we expect the region to do better in 2025, also on the basis of the projects that are in the backlog. And then the last question, I think, is maybe more for you.
Barbara P. Geelen
executiveWell, I think I already answered that when answering [ Paul ], but let me -- of course, you need top line to make EBIT margins, especially from also an operational leverage perspective. So that is the case. Overall, we are expecting revenue growth, but it's not the only lever that we can pull. And there, I really want to kind of go back again to the example of the Americas, whereby with a large revenue drop, they still achieved an EBIT margin of more than 10%. Will that be anywhere then between 13.8% and 15%? We really believe it's too early in the year. There's too many moving panels to be more precise, and hence, we have given now that guidance.
Mark Heine
executiveQuirijn?
Quirijn Mulder
analystQuirijn Mulder ING. Three questions. First of all, can you give me an idea about, let me say, in the order book, what is renewables as a percentage of the total to give an idea about what the opportunities are there? The second question is with regard to the Middle East. So you gave the answer to David that the market is looking better. So can you give me an idea about the impact last year on the sailing around Africa for -- because of the troubles there? Do you see any slowdown -- the impact of slowdown of the war there that you have a positive impact there that are opportunities? And then my final question is with regard to your order intake in Americas. On balance, it's very weak, but can you quantify a little bit the size of the cancellations and the projects on pause in total and the impact on the total order book?
Mark Heine
executiveYes. Okay. Thanks, Quirijn. I will try to answer as best as I can. And then potentially, you don't get all the answers you want. First and foremost, the order book and how the backlog is split, I don't have those exact numbers. Do you have them, Barbara? But what we normally saw in the last period of time is that the order book is actually following our revenue profile quite well. I don't know for the last...
Barbara P. Geelen
executiveIt's a little bit lower in renewables because of what has happened in the past. That is a shift that we've seen. Some are paused, so still in the backlog, but some are paused for longer, as Mark said, and they have gone out of the backlog there. So we see a slight change more in favor of oil and gas.
Mark Heine
executiveOkay. And if you talk about the Middle East in particular, so there are a couple of things that happened, Quirijn, and that is, first and foremost, we had just before that conflict really exploded, so to say, we moved the vessel to the gulf area there in the Arabian Gulf. And that was unfortunate because thereafter, we saw, yes, quite a subdued market in that area, and we didn't need the capacity for an additional geophysical vessel. So we had a lot of idle time on that vessel in the period thereafter, and we could not bring the vessel back to the Mediterranean because of the problem of the Red Sea there. Now eventually, we decided, okay, we want to bring it back anyway. So we're going to sail around Africa. And then there's a different period coming up. So the period there was that we actually picked up some work along the way in Africa, and she still is in Africa, basically doing some work in the West African area, Namibia and a few other places. So we picked up some work, and that obviously mitigates having only cost and being idle. So that was a positive thing. Now for the upcoming period, we need to see if we will continue to sail her to the Mediterranean back to Egypt or that we'll keep her a bit longer in Africa. So that is still to be decided. The impact in the beginning of the year until the time that we decided to start sailing was quite significant, and you're talking about, yes, easily more than EUR 10 million, EUR 15 million impact for that idle period at that moment in time for the first period, a bit longer, definitely the first half and even into the third quarter when we decided, I think, in the third quarter to sail her over. So -- and then your question is specifically on the Americas, how big the cancellation was. So the cancellation in Americas itself, that was in the backlog for EUR 20 million. So that was out. And they had to manage that. And I said, there was only one specific cancellation and other things are more like, okay, potential to bid on certain -- we were bidding on projects, and I don't have an exact number to mention there for how much is in the backlog and not in the backlog anymore, albeit, yes, you know that 7% of our total business, I said, is related to renewables in the U.S. And yes, we don't expect everything to be on the grinding halt. Some things will continue. However, having said that, we will primarily have to look for business elsewhere. And that can be in Latin America, for instance, where we see a really uptick in activity and request for business in Brazil, but also in the northern part where we see Guyana, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, but even also in other countries on the land side, Chile and other places where we further expand. And then while the U.S. is settling down, we will see and chase opportunities also elsewhere and tap into the opportunities that are offered in Latin America, for instance, or in Canada. So -- and then in the meantime, we will see the U.S. clarifying a number of things and also these markets where we see lots of opportunities, as shown on the slide, we'll continue to tap into those. Catrien?
Catrien van Buttingha Wichers
executiveYes. I have another question via the webcast from Thomas Martin, BNP. He said, in the face of acknowledged uncertainty, you still have EUR 150 million CapEx earmarked for expansion transformation dependent on the pace of the development opportunities. What could this be targeted at? Do I understand USVs are a significant portion? And is U.S. market visibility a key driver of the decision to invest this EUR 150 million? Or is that not directly relevant to this decision?
Barbara P. Geelen
executiveWell, I would say, no, not really. We believe that the USVs are the future. So we will continue to invest. We are also investing in deep-sea capabilities, the Blue Dragon, for example, we see an increased need for deep-sea solutions. So we will be investing in that. And that is a fundamentally different technology that we're using there, deep sea than we have currently. So that's really the next-generation technology we're applying there. Of course, if the top line would be disappointing, we are and remain very focused on achieving and delivering on the midterm targets. And that means that if we need to stop doing certain things on transformation or slow it down, we can phase it to continue to deliver on the targets. If it looks the way it looks now, we're not doing that, it's also transformation and expansion, and expansion is also often related to the top line growth. So then certain things we will not do or we will do later. So there is that flexibility. The point is we have a certain point, we have a choice. Of course, there's always there -- it takes a while to spend the CapEx. It's not on and off. So it's not fully EUR 150 million flexible, but we can make choices, and we are making choices depending on the developments that we see in the market. I would also like to add to that, that, for example, if we want to accelerate the strategy and we are looking at, for example, surveillance of critical infrastructure, that would mean that we would even speed it up. But that is not now on the table, but that is something that we're looking into. And we would only do so, of course, when there is a solid business case and we can really accelerate on our strategy and make use of the market opportunities that are out there.
Mark Heine
executiveMaybe if I can add one thing maybe I think, Thomas, good to realize that we're not investing at the moment in something that we have to change our opinion on because the market is maybe different than it was before. So we have a very solid plan in our strategy. We're continued with that strategy and the fact that in the Americas is maybe creating some uncertainty for the upcoming period or in the offshore wind, changing the environment does not influence directly what we're doing today. Those were the questions online, Catrien? Thank you very much. Are there any additional questions from the room here? First, Thijs?
Barbara P. Geelen
executiveAnd Quirijn.
Thijs Berkelder
analystThijs Berkelder again, ABN AMRO ODDO BHF. On your growth segments, do you maybe have a number on your unmanned fleet? What kind of revenues are you currently already generating with the unmanned fleet? And where should it go to in, let's say, 3 years' time, roughly some dynamics there? Then critical minerals/mining, how large is that segment for you right now? And your ambitions there on the slide, I only see, let's say, onshore mining mentioned. Is deep-sea mining also back in play?
Mark Heine
executiveYes. Okay, Thijs -- another one? Yes.
Thijs Berkelder
analystAnd third one, sorry. Also space, Intuitive Machines launched the second vehicle. So are you again involved?
Mark Heine
executiveYes. Okay. So first and foremost, you're asking for a different split of our reporting parameters, the number of revenue on USVs. We're not going to provide that to you. In actual fact, I don't have the number top of my head. I can look it up and then still don't give it to you. So -- and why is that? Because we feel that this is also going into some details that are competitively also quite sensitive. What we can say, we have now 10 USVs in the water. We're doing this already multiple years in some areas, for instance, Australia, where we have also expanded the capability. So over the last year, in 2024, which is very exciting, nobody else has done this, and a lot of people are very far from this, we have done touchdown monitoring for pipelay, so with a USV, with an ROV in the water. By the way, there's nobody else that has an ROV in the water. We already have an ROV in the water for more than 2 years operating this from a remote platform, uncrewed platform. So we're further developing this. We're moving more in the deeper water, as Barbara said, because we want to develop these capabilities. There's a lot of learnings attached to it. So it is also a growing area. So obviously, you have to pilot a lot and invest a lot to get it right, but we're continuing on this path. If we talk about critical minerals and mining, it's still relatively small. We do critical minerals in Brazil and in Chile at the moment. There are some opportunities in other places. Certainly, in, for instance, Canada and also in Southern America, we see more opportunities. So we're really going to work with experts there, and we're hiring experts from this industry as well to further expand into this. We also see opportunities, obviously, in Europe where they have issued a bill or a law to actually get at least 10% by a certain date from all the minerals that are required gathered in Europe, which is not going to be easy. But certainly, Europe has also an ambition to move in this direction. And then we see opportunities in the Middle East that we're chasing, and we also, for instance, see it in Australia. So we're definitely looking at this globally as well with experts from this industry. A percentage is not really valuable to give to you. So -- and I think it is so small that we're not going to report on it separately. It is part of our infrastructure development, and it will be also in that area. Then you specifically asked for deep sea. And we have issued internally a very specific memo that we are not getting involved in commercial projects on deep-sea critical mineral developments at the moment until the subsea or the Seabed authorization authority has issued a clear statement on that, that this is acceptable to continue with. Now we fully appreciate that the U.S.A. is not recognizing this body, the Seabed authorization there, and they might have a different perspective on moving forward, and we will obviously take this on and look at this if this is really applicable. At the moment, we're only involved in doing maybe investigations to see what the impact studies -- basically involved in impact studies. So this is our current statement on this. And then...
Barbara P. Geelen
executiveSpace.
Mark Heine
executiveSpace. Space, yes, I didn't write it down. Space, yes, that is a pie in the sky but, no, space, we're not involved directly with the second vehicle as far as I know. But we have still a team very involved in these developments. This is obviously something that we do because we see that certain developments in space really ask for technology that we can then reapply in our existing businesses, that could be remote solutions, that could be an autonomy solution like what we do on the space vehicle, so to say, they got involved in. They developed some sort of autonomy, and those routines can also be used on USV. So we see benefits in getting involved in these high-technology business, and we will continue to do that. We're not going to become a party that is building moon rovers in the future. So we have no ambition to become the next moon rover builder and work with people there like Elon Musk that might want to dive into moon rovers in the future, electric probably.
Barbara P. Geelen
executiveYes. And maybe if I can add to that, specifically on space, this is very much a government grant business where we have a very brilliant team as a cross-sell also within our own business. I may want to add that we operate this at the highest level of redundancies, which is because we're working with defense, with NASA, with these agencies, and that really also positions us very well for all the emerging segments that we just talked about and everything that is happening in Europe at the moment.
Mark Heine
executiveI think Quirijn -- no, on that side.
Michael Roeg
analystMichael, Degroof Petercam. I have a question about the slide on CapEx, that's Slide 23. There, I see the split between maintenance CapEx and the expansion and transformation. I did a quick calculation, and I come to maintenance CapEx being about 5% of cost. And on that basis, I calculate that by '27, you have about EUR 120 million, EUR 125 million in maintenance CapEx. Is that the right calculation?
Barbara P. Geelen
executiveWell, I'm sure you've done the right calculation. What we've said in the Capital Markets Day was it is a range. When you -- this is not only maintenance for me, this is sustaining. That's why I made the point. If you want to sustain your asset base, there's also components of replacement in there. So it's not only maintaining the assets that you have, but also replacing certain assets if you want to keep the same service levels to the customers to really generate the similar cash flows, if you like. So -- and that changes from year-to-year. And that is also mainly driven by the characteristics of our asset base in terms of 1 year, we have a vessel that needs a special survey, which is, in general, more expensive than a regular dry docking, which you do annually. So yes, there may be changes in there, and you see the fluctuations.
Michael Roeg
analystOkay. The reason I ask is because I see maintenance CapEx going up through the years. In the future, I see total CapEx coming down a little bit. And with maintenance CapEx going up, it means that your expansion CapEx is coming down. And the reason I ask for it is because on Slide 17, I see a very nice trajectory of earnings growth driven by top line growth and margin expansion. But now that your margins are already so very healthy, I think your future earnings growth will probably be more driven by top line growth than by margin improvement. And if the expansion CapEx is coming down, that indirectly suggests that your top line growth will level off.
Mark Heine
executiveYes, I can respond to...
Barbara P. Geelen
executiveYes. Well, I can respond to that as well. I think that is a little bit if you would -- if all things would be equal, you could draw that conclusion. I'm not really -- I do not really agree with that conclusion because there is many more things that go in the top line. There is, of course, your -- as a company, it's a bit of a theoretical discussion we could also have offline at some point. But if you have a certain asset base, of course, there's limits to how many cash flows depending also the pricing. So it's P times Q when you look at the asset base, also how you work with your customers and the utilization that is coming in. So I wouldn't really draw that conclusion that we're now more exposed on the top line side.
Mark Heine
executiveAnd I would like to add there. I think your conclusion is actually wrong. And the reason for that is very simple, we have invested in very large assets over the last couple of years. So we bought 7 vessels. We have just said that we completed this program. So these vessels are very expensive, and they are in the expansion CapEx. So these vessels are still partly in modification mode. They are not operational yet. So they're not even generating revenue at the moment. So they're not part of the revenue line that you see on the Slide #17. So there you go, wrong, I think, in the first one. So the high CapEx is related to high and very capital-intensive assets. We're completing that profile. And the CapEx investment comes down because we go to smaller assets, use fees and, therefore, a different mix of CapEx in the expansion. So there are multiple areas where I think this doesn't really apply. Secondly, I think we just mentioned that we have multiple programs with digitalization, optimization and also new services that can generate higher margins. So in this sense, we're not the same company moving forward in the future because we'll have a different mix of services that we supply.
Michael Roeg
analystNo, that's very clear. I was actually expecting that you would move a bit more to leases to drive the top line. But well, these answers are also very clear and encouraging.
Quirijn Mulder
analystQuirijn Mulder from ING again. I have 3 remaining questions. First of all, Barbara, can you update us on the fleet maintenance? Because we had a lot of discussions last year about the fleet and the adjustment of the vessels. Have you finished the program? Or is there still a lot of work to be done in the first quarter? That's the first one. Secondly, on the wind offshore Europe, can you give an idea about the price volume? And is there -- given that the clients have more difficulties with accepting all the projects that you -- that the pricing is somewhat under pressure in the market and that you see that? Or is that -- or is there that we can still expect something like price increases adjusted to inflation and volumes? And my final question is about the geophysical market. We haven't discussed that yet, but how do you look at that market? Is there more competition than before? If you speak with TGS, then of course, they say, yes, we are gaining market share from Fugro and Gardline and other players. Can you maybe update us on that market maybe as well?
Barbara P. Geelen
executiveYes. On the fleet maintenance, Quirijn, thanks for your question, but I'm not going to detail all the dry dockings of all the vessels that we have at the moment. As you know, Q1 will be -- is typically low season. We try to do as much work as we can. We already had quite some dry dockings last Q4, as you're aware. We're still working on some big conversions, also getting the Zephyr ready and getting the Voyager out. I'm not going to be exact on timings there, but these are the things that we're doing.
Mark Heine
executivePrices?
Barbara P. Geelen
executiveP times Q, wind offshore. I thought you were going to add...
Mark Heine
executiveOkay. No problem. Yes. So that's no problem. So prices, Quirijn, what is, I think, important is that you see different mechanisms in different market segments. So if you talk about our marine asset integrity business, it's very different than what is happening, for instance, in the marine site characterization business. And then if you dive into the marine site characterization business, it's very different if you are in geotech or in geophysics. And that is also referring to your third question, which I will dive into as well. So what you see is there that pricing has been moving up over the last couple of years to a normal level again because we came out also a low level. So finally, we see these margins coming up and to a normal level where it's more equally divided in that everybody can make a bit of money in this industry. So this is more healthy, I would say. We see obviously that flattening off, and we have already announced that earlier that we said that pricing will be less of an element in the top line than volume. So -- and that is also for the upcoming period is more volume growth than pricing, so to say, because prices have stabilized and, in some areas, maybe are under pressure as well where there's more capacity. So you see in the -- and I will make the jump to geophysical. You see also in the utilization, we presented that 70% utilization of 2024, primarily because of the geophysical fleet has less activity. Now that is because there is more capacity available. Why? Because there are more companies doing geophysical work for sure. So is there more competition? In that sense, over the last couple of years, you have seen geophysical companies moving also in the offshore wind market where they maybe were traditionally only in oil and gas. So they have made that step while the market was further developing. We were expecting this. So this is not a surprise because we also had probably an unheard of a very high market share in some of these areas in offshore wind if you pedal back a few years. So we knew that this would change over time. And this obviously, yes, has taken place. If you talk about TGS in particular, of course, I would say the same if I was them. But I don't know exactly what they are doing. That is very equal to what Fugro is doing. So it's nice to say, but we're still cooperating with each other as well. But they do not have the similar type of vessels or equipment that we use at the moment in time. They might do similar work with some subcontractors that provide similar services that Fugro does as well. Now -- but geophysical work in general is a market that has lower barriers of entry, so you can more easily step in. Everybody knows that. And that also means that everybody sees that pressure. So if we maybe see pressure, I know that also the competition sees that same pressure on that market, so to say. That is basically what I can say about the geophysics. I think we come to an end of the presentation and question period. So I would like to thank everyone here in the room, but also online, also for the questions online. Thank you very much. Thank you very much for attending, and I wish you a good rest of the day. Thank you.
Barbara P. Geelen
executiveThank you.
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