Gapwaves AB (publ) (GAPWB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hello, and welcome to today's Finwire broadcast presentation with Gapwaves. [Operator Instructions] With that said, I'll hand the floor to you. Please go ahead.

Thank you. And also thank you to Finwire for hosting Gapwaves and my presentation of the Q4 report that was released earlier this morning. We're very happy to report a strong end to the year -- strong growth and also a very big milestone for Gapwaves. We've now produced more than 1 million antennas with Gapwaves technology or based on Gapwaves technology. I'll talk more about that later in the presentation. We want to save time for questions. We've received quite a few questions. So I'll keep this to around 15, 17 minutes or so, and then we'll go into a Q&A session. So for those of you who are newer to Gapwaves and Gapwaves as an investment case, Gapwaves is a unique waveguide company from Gothenburg. We are in a market which is growing year-by-year and predictively also for the rest of the decade. It's driven by regulation and customer needs. I'll talk more about the market. So we see in our marketplace that there is continued strong growth and a bigger addressable market. Our technology, like I said, is unique and well protected with patents. And patents is something that we're also ensuring and focusing on going forward. Like I mentioned in my introduction, we've actually had more than 1 million antennas produced in the last few years based on Gapwaves technology. Some of that has been produced by ourselves in our own facility, others by other volumes or a larger share of the volume has been produced by our production partner in China, Frencken. Of course, it's our technology and our antennas as well as our production equipment. Gapwaves is not setting up its own big factories for automotive production and automotive supply chains. We rely on partners. So we certify and qualify partners, external partners that already has this infrastructure, which means that our business model is asset-light. We don't have to buy land, build factories, run factory staff, et cetera. And also, since we develop customized products for our customers and their needs, we are able to generate revenue along the entire life cycle also in the development phase. So coming into the Q4 report, I wanted to share some highlights of this report with you. Like we've talked about for the last couple of years, where Gapwaves is on an industrialization journey, a scale-up journey and the 1 million antennas produced since inception of the company a little more than 15 years ago is a very strong indication of where Gapwaves is heading. In 2025 alone, we produced more than 840,000 antennas. And I want to remind you that not all of that is happening in Gapwaves' own production facility, but also with -- or primarily with Frencken, our production partner in China. The Valeo volumes, Valeo is a customer of ours. The volumes are increasing strongly and it's been a positive challenge for us to meet up the demand of product from Valeo and their customer, their OEM customers. And in fact, during the 6 months of production during last year, we ended up at 8 times the contracted volume for that period. So it's been an extraordinary period in terms of ramping up way beyond the planning that was set in place by Gapwaves when we entered into -- by Valeo when we entered into the contract a year earlier. And scaling up in automotive means that you're scaling up in phases and in step-wise we build capacity and expand capacity in line with the customers' ramp-up and their needs and the needs of their customers. A very big project for us and a very important step for us is the commencement of a high-volume production line for Valeo in China, which is starting up during next year. That project has already been ongoing for quite some time, but it will start its production during 2026, allowing us and Valeo to continue this very big scale-up and ramp-up of volumes. For the year, we had record sales, almost SEK 91 million for last year in the quarter, it was just over SEK 23 million, which are strong growth numbers given the market situation in general. I'll comment more about that. As you may have seen already, the Q4 result level or EBITA was impacted by costs. And I've already indicated the main reason, which is the production start-up and the acceleration of the production with our -- for our customers, primarily Valeo. And of course, we've also seen some effect from a revenue mix, meaning more products being produced, but also fewer or less project revenue and I'll comment more about that later. As a consequence, we are also working on our cost base and the cost structure. So we're changing that in accordance to how the revenue mix is developing. And also, we're optimizing the cost structure in our production, which can only happen as you start to ramp up in volumes. The small volumes are always -- that represents a period where costs are unusual or extraordinary, especially with very fast acceleration like we've seen during last year and in Q4. The cash flow, obviously, was strong for the quarter. We successfully concluded a rights issue, generating almost SEK 72 million for the company. So Gapwaves is in a strong cash position, which I'm very happy about, given the -- how the rest of the world looks like in terms of the market climate, but also it strengthens primarily our ability to win new customers and continue the scale-up and the acceleration. Coming to the market climate. As you can see in the news, it's changing week by week. So it's challenging. And it's hard for our customers to predict their business and that creates a pressure, especially on new projects and new product generations from our customers. So they have very short -- they shorten the time lines quite a bit. However, positive is that there is no way to avoid developing new products to meet legal and consumer requirements of ADAS functionality in the cars. So overall, we're quite happy with how things are growing in the company. We're not so happy with the current situation on projects, new product sales, but we also feel that we're in a good position moving forward and we have significant opportunities to add new products and also new customers. So for Sensrad, where we've seen another strong sales growth year with several new customers and also continued sales of the Hugin radar sensor, we've also noticed that there has been some delays in the development and market penetration in some areas and within existing contracts. And that's also why we've been prudent in collaboration with our auditors and made an impairment adjustment primarily due to the delays that we've seen. But we still strongly believe in Sensrad and its ability to capture very significant market opportunities going forward. So we have high expectations for continued growth from Sensrad. I also want to highlight the Vinnova funding and some of the more exciting projects that allow us to enter into -- will help us to enter into new market segments, such as the defense industry, we have several ongoing customer dialogues there for antenna solutions, primarily aimed at radar applications for autonomous vehicles or drones or drone detection. And even more exciting is the collaboration with Waymo for upcoming generations of radar sensors. Waymo is the leading robotaxi or autonomous vehicle player in the field right now and they are also in a very strong phase, very strong position in terms of rollout and commercialization of their services. So we're preparing together with these -- with Waymo and other companies, our technology so we can meet the requirements and the needs that these customers will have in the future. So we think of 2026 looking ahead, it's a kind of a transitional year. Gapwaves will continue to change itself from a research and technology company to a long-term strategic and high-volume supplier of unique technology and value-generating technology to our customers. The scaling up of our high-volume automotive production will continue to meet growing demand. Obviously, going into high volume means also that prices per unit will decrease, but it's also compensated for the higher volume. Building this type of scalability and long-term growth, which is very characterizing of the automotive industry, where you have a very -- you have quite many years in supply to your customers is very important for Gapwaves and any company in the industry. Also, production equipment sales is something that generates revenue for Gapwaves. We have -- we develop customized production equipment for our customers as they need production capacity of our antennas or the antennas that we have developed for them. So that will continue to some extent and it's associated with setting up production capacity for a specific customer, in this case, for Valeo in China, as I mentioned before. Focus areas for the company moving forward is, of course, the scale-up of the company and its production, but also to focus on new segments. I already mentioned the defense side where we've been approached by several customers for different antenna solutions, primarily for radar and also other segments in -- where Gapwaves antenna technology will bring value. So that is very important for us. So we don't only have automotive as a market segment for Gapwaves. And automotive have certain cycles. Other industry segments operate with different cycles. So for us, it's very important that we can balance this in different markets and also see a more stable revenue generation from that. And along with the scale-up and production ramp-up, of course, we continue to work in operational efficiency, both in the organization, but also in the cost structure in our production and in other areas in the company. And that work will continue throughout 2026. I want to spend a few minutes on our business model and strategy. Some viewers may already have heard this before. Others are new. So I'll just do a short recap. So we have a very strong pipeline with customers and products that are in production with HELLA and FORVIA and Sensrad, Smartmicro, Valeo and others. And we also have products that will come into production in the coming years, as you can see in this slide, in the lower part of the slide. I mentioned that we -- in our business model, we generate revenue at every step. Phase 1 is typically development phase where customers pay us to develop a custom products based on our technology. Phase 2 is more of an industrialization. And in this phase, typically, we see other types of revenue like production equipment and contracting work for setting up production capacity in certain locations, for instance. And then we have the important date of start of production, which we've seen in Q1 2024 with HELLA and in 1st of July last year for Valeo, for instance. And then a number of years of production and high-volume production for our customers. Typically, there is also between start of production and high-volume phase. It's typically 2 years, 2 to 2.5 years of ramp-up going from 0 units produced to more than 1 million units per year per customer or antenna model. We've mentioned this before, our business model is asset-light. We contract with partners that we certify and qualify ahead of time in various locations. And in today's geopolitical and trade political world, we think this is a very strong advantage for Gapwaves that we can be very flexible with location and we can also be fast in switching between different regions and mitigating risks associated with a certain region or tariffs, et cetera. And our customers are increasingly asking for not only one location or region for the production. They want us to provide product or production in different regions. And with our model, we're in a very strong position to provide that. So I mentioned market potential initially, market drivers in our markets requiring active safety function of cars like dynamic cruise control or emergency braking. It's in many regions or major markets, some of these features are legally required and they can also be required by independent testing bodies like Euro NCAP or its counterparts in North America and Asia. And these drive the need for higher resolution or higher performance radar sensors operating at higher frequencies to get that type of performance. And this creates a perfect situation for Gapwaves' waveguide technology and drives an increasing demand for waveguide antennas. And like we've mentioned before, we see no change here in the market needs for waveguide solutions or waveguide antenna solution and radar sensors. And the number of radar sensors being put into cars grows every year and it will continue to grow at around 20% or more per year for the rest of the decade. And we also see emerging subsegments of this field where higher resolution or imaging radar sensors are being required for even better driver assistance functionality. And that's really a very strong sweet spot for Gapwaves technology. We're fairly unique in our technology's ability to deliver very cost-effective antenna solutions that can easily be produced in very high volumes with very high quality and yield. So Gapwaves, in summary, continues to be and is very well positioned for profitable growth. We are acting in a strong market. We have a unique technology, well protected with long-lasting patents. And we have proven Gapwaves and we have proven Gapwaves technology and its application in high volume in probably the world's toughest market, namely the automotive market, where you have very strong requirements on the company and its products in terms of quality and being cost-effective. And we also think that our business model in comparison with many potential competitors is very strong as we don't rely on our own fixed factory production infrastructure, but we partner up with external partners that provide this infrastructure for us. And going forward, I want to point out that as an investor, keep your eyes open for news from the company in terms of new customers, but also our entry into new market segments. And as a result, we also will see new contracts for Gapwaves involving both development, but also more importantly, long-term supply and production of product. You can see how our volume journey have been the last couple of years. During the first 12 years, accumulated volume of antennas was around 60,000, including all the prototypes, et cetera. In 2024, around 100,000 antennas with the Gapwaves technology were produced. And in 2025, 840,000, very strong increase, primarily together with our customer, Valeo, but also the HELLA production conducted by Frencken in China using our technology and our antenna design, which we did for HELLA starting in 2021. And now going forward in 2026, we estimate that the volume will be at least 4.5 million, more likely 5 million or above given the current volume forecast we have from our customers. And I'm very happy to again state that we were -- Gapwaves has been involved in producing more than 1 million antennas with our technology, which is a very strong statement to our customers, to the investor market. And also during the year, we had another milestone, namely announcing that the first cars on Swedish roads were with Gapwaves' antennas was announced. So it was the new Mercedes CLA, that was launched in and started deliveries to Swedish customers in September last year. That's a very strong quality statement. And we hope to be able to announce additional car manufacturers that put cars on the road with our antenna technology inside during the year. So with that, I finish my presentation. And like I said initially, I'd like to focus more on the Q&A. We know that there is quite a few questions. So please go ahead, and let's start Q&A session.

Thank you for your presentation. Now we open up for questions. First question comes from [ Henry Vivek ]. Jonas, your forecast is so bright, but none of the main investors or managing Board wanted to take a stick in this fabulous future. So the question is why?

If I understand the question correctly, it's about the ownership of Board and management and employees. Yes, quite a few of us have invested. We participated in the rights issue last fall. And we have also participated in various stock option programs. Unfortunately, the last one didn't turn out anything. So it generated money for the company, but not -- didn't return anything for the ones who participated. Ultimately, we try to encourage investments in the company. But most people have a private economy and we cannot force them to put more money. Certainly, an employee always -- they already have a kind of risk exposure towards the company. It's their employment, their income. And the last few years have been pretty tough in terms of inflation and what margins a normal family or a normal worker has. So -- but we are aware about that, and the Board is also aware about the topic.

The next question is, you took a lot of interest to sign contracts and that's why HELLA representative stepped down from Board. So when can we expect new contracts and clients?

One was announced just a few days ago. We continue our work in a new project with Desay for a new antenna in addition to the one that we developed for them last year. So this is ongoing work. We have contracts with pretty much all the leading Tier 1s. And when it fits into their product cycle planning, of course, they will engage in a discussion for antenna development for such products. So like I mentioned during my presentation, right now in the market climate for our customers and their customers, they are keeping time lines short because of uncertainty in the market. However, we don't see any changes in the fundamental need for our products and for the products of our customers, namely the radar sensors. So we're confident that this will continue to develop positively for Gapwaves.

Next question is, what are the main reasons behind Sensrad delayed development and limited market penetration?

First, Sensrad was delayed before it could launch its commercial product to the market almost a year. And it's a very technically complex and advanced product. So that often happens. And then as a result, they've also been slower in the commercial development or it's been -- not slower in its ramp-up, but it started at a slower -- it started later than we had expected. But we're -- like I said in the presentation, we're quite positive or very positive about the growth opportunity and the growth trajectory that Sensrad has. They've been growing very quickly and we expect that to continue also this year and the coming years.

How much of the Q4 net sales consisted of licensing revenue from HELLA?

That is a piece of information we cannot share as we have only one licensing generating customer right now. It would be disclosing part of the pricing structure for HELLA or cost structure, which is sensitive information. So we cannot share that.

Financial costs exploding from SEK 2.3 million in 2024 to SEK 20.3 million in 2025. Please tell us about what is hiding in these figures.

The details can be found in our report. But largely, it emanates from the commencing of production and the start-up costs associated with the production line, the line or the facility we have in Gothenburg and also some preparations for commencing the Chinese production with Frencken in China this year. And like I said in the presentation, we have exceeded the contracted volumes with a factor of 8, 8x the volumes due to very high demand from Valeo's customers and from Valeo. So it's been a huge challenge for Valeo and for Gapwaves to meet that demand. And that requires a lot of extraordinary efforts and costs, adding suppliers, speeding up logistics, extra staff, contracting external parties to do parts of the production of antennas, et cetera. Essentially, the [ Flex ] line in Gothenburg is currently running at 200% capacity. It's designed for a certain capacity. Right now, we're running it at double capacity. So there is a lot of associated -- a lot of extraordinary costs associated with that, which will then change as we transfer the production to the high-volume line in China, which is designed to handle high volumes. So -- but we see this as an important investment long term for Gapwaves to meet the requirements of Valeo and their customers because in the longer run, it will show our capacity and our capability to meet accelerated ramp-ups like this, which will be very important, not only in the Chinese market, but also in other markets. And we have a very close collaboration and a very positive collaboration with Valeo. And Valeo has very high ambitions in the radar sensor market. So we're confident. We're fully convinced that this is the right way to go to build the company and the volume long term.

Another question is, when do you expect to reach a breakeven and profitability?

We don't provide those types of forecasts currently. It's too early in the development. But as you can see from ramp-up, I think it provides a good indication that the company still needs to continue this ramp-up and optimize cost structures in the production, but also enter into other segments before we have a certain stability going forward.

Next question is, when this year will be -- when this year will there be SOP with Desay and Veoneer?

They are targeting late this year, meaning Desay, but they are also depending on their customer, their OEM or car manufacturer customers. But we are planning and we will be ready to commence into start of production late this year if that is what is required from Desay and their customer.

When is HELLA Generation 7 expected to go to SOP? Is it higher resolution?

It's both. Hella Gen 7 is actually a combination of different radar sensors. So it's a platform where you have both high resolution and standard corner radars. And it's planned for -- I think right now, the estimates are for some models there in 2027, but then also in 2028. In December, HELLA announced a contract award for their high-resolution radar and that is planned for SOP in 2028.

How can that market climate can affect the revenues since Gapwaves is ramping up and have guided 6 million antennas in 2026?

We've provided an estimate of around 5 million antennas in 2026 being produced under our current contracts. So of course, we rely on customers needing antennas for new radar sensors or new radar sensor products. And if those customers, our Tier 1 customers do not get awards from OEMs or car manufacturers, then of course, there will be delays. So -- and in an uncertain world where OEMs don't really know or have hard times to predict their own volumes and their own market introduction of new car models and in which markets and how tariffs will hit different markets and different car models, it creates a lot of uncertainty, especially on the timing side of things. So that's why we want to be clear and try to explain the effects that we see. However, we also have strong contracts and production has already started. Once production has started, it will ramp up and continue for a number of years, as I showed in my presentation.

Next question is, in the new press release about the new project with Desay, you mentioned that Gapwaves will take some cost. Which costs are that?

We wanted to accelerate the development. So Desay and Gapwaves jointly decided that we want to accelerate, communicate to the world. So we're together the first party in the Chinese market to announce a new radar sensor with Gapwaves' waveguide technology. And that's important for Desay to also win contracts. The type of financing that Gapwaves is responsible for is essentially development efforts and certain design work related to the antenna, whereas Desay is paying for some of that, but not all of it. So we wanted to accelerate this and also show to maybe the most important car market in the world, namely the Chinese one, that Gapwaves offering is competitive, both time-wise, but also cost-wise in the Chinese market. And that's a pretty big statement to our customers and to our potential customers, not only in the Chinese market, but also in other markets as well.

Next question is, how is it going with the SEK 90 million order from Smartmicro?

We're producing antennas for Smartmicro. So that's a multiyear contract and we're continuing the collaboration with Smartmicro. Right now -- or during most of 2025, our main focus has been capacity and acceleration ramp-up of volumes for Valeo so Valeo can meet the demands of their car manufacturer customer. But we are, of course, able to also produce the antennas for both Sensrad and Smartmicro and other customers.

And how is it going with the Asian Tier 1 and North American Tier 1 customer?

Work is ongoing. So it's progressing quite well actually. And like I said in another response earlier in the Q&A, our customers are depending on getting awards or getting contracts with their car manufacturer customers. So -- but as we understand it, progress is being made for both of these Tier 1 customers of ours in terms of them moving forward towards contract award. And that would be the starting point for Gapwaves to put the antenna concepts that we have developed into finalization and also industrialization and after that start of production.

When you talk about scaling up antenna production, are you referring to the MLW antenna because that's the one you can profit the most from, right?

Correct. With Valeo, it's an MLW antenna. And as we have discussed in previous presentations, automotive Tier 1s express the largest interest for the MLW antenna, especially for more advanced radar sensors with bigger antenna structures. And in those structures, the MLW technology has very strong advantages. But we also have Tier 1 customers that are looking for corner radar sensors where we can also offer in -- especially for high-volume scenarios, the IMW antennas where you have plastic antennas that are being metallized and then assembled into antenna apertures or structures.

Next question is, in the start of production chart, we could not see HELLA's next-generation for wave HD radar. Is it included in the HELLA line or not yet contracted?

It's not yet contracted with us, but I would say that the HELLA Gen 7 includes the HRR antenna and the award. So it's Gapwaves' antenna. We have designed and developed it, but the production setup has not yet been finalized by HELLA.

Another question is, can you give an estimate about price per antenna MLW to Valeo?

I cannot, of course, disclose Valeo's pricing. That will be providing Gapwaves' potential competitors with way too much information. And I'm not allowed to do that for -- from Valeo either because it would disclose information to Valeo's competitors about Valeo's offering. So -- but we have provided guidance for typical antenna pricing in the market for different types of radar sensors. So it's ranging from EUR 1 to EUR 2 for a rather small basic corner antenna all the way up to EUR 30 for an imaging radar antenna in automotive volumes. So it's a fairly wide range in how much the antenna representing a radar sensor product. So obviously, more advanced and capable radar sensors have more advanced and capable components like the chipsets and the antennas, which generate higher pricing.

Another question is, when will you announce new car models that have Gapwaves antennas?

Short answer, ASAP. As soon as we have green light from our customers to disclose such information, we will. And that's always a question which is on the table. But our customers are also under nondisclosure agreements with their customers, the car manufacturers. So typically, car manufacturers are quite sensitive about the technology or tech stack in their cars and what suppliers and volumes and pricing, et cetera. And it's the same thing for our customers, the Tier 1s. But it's -- we understand it's of keen interest to our investors. So it's an important topic. And to the extent possible, we are always trying to get permission from our customers to disclose that. So we're working on that. It's on our topic list every week with almost every customer.

How confident are you in your own abilities to navigate this financially difficult situation for the company?

We're quite confident that we are on the right track and with scaling up the volumes and also entering into new market segments, we will create a diversification in our revenue type and revenue mix ranging from project type of revenue in different market segments, but also production equipment revenue and then, of course, product revenue emanating from producing products for our customers and supplying them with the product.

Another question is, when will there be SOP with Veoneer Magma?

They provided us with indications. We don't have any new information. We know that they are definitely in the market for production and they have a license agreement. So we expect that to happen with hopefully a partner of Gapwaves. But I cannot give any other estimates than what we have provided earlier.

Regarding the co-finance project with Desay SV, can you clarify Gapwaves' share of the investment and expected returns?

The expected returns are obvious. As Desay wins contracts with car manufacturers, they will commence production with us. So we will commence production for and supplying Desay with antennas. So like I mentioned in an earlier question, Gapwaves' contribution is in the form of development efforts. So we don't really put hard money on the table. It's more efforts. And the main reason to do this, as I mentioned before, is to accelerate our entry and strengthen our position in the Chinese market together with a very ambitious and strong partner like Desay.

Another question is, how disturbing was [ Shillinger's ] donation of shares to Molcap?

It was not disturbing at all. We think Molcap represents a financial investor which adds to the ownership structure of Gapwaves.

Sensrad [ impairment ] due to slower development, can you elaborate on the time frame?

I mentioned that earlier that we have seen some delays initially with -- in a technical aspect and the launch of the product, which have led to slower or delayed commercial take-up. But since the launch, we have also seen a very strong growth for Sensrad and growing interest for the product, the radar sensor that is unique in the world. It's the most capable commercially available radar sensor of its kind and it has a very strong position in the market. Together with our auditors, we decided -- and the Board, we decided to be prudent and reflect this delay in write-off or depreciation of the share value in our books.

Will Frencken supply the antennas to Desay?

Frencken will be involved in that production. It will be Gapwaves who supplies the antenna, but we are working with Frencken as our production partner. And Desay is a Chinese Tier 1 targeting primarily China or initially, I should say, Chinese OEMs, but they also cater to Western car manufacturers with quite a few of their products. So they have a global ambition and global agenda. But of course, Frencken will be involved. The Chinese market is looking for Chinese supply chain and Chinese production partners, et cetera. So -- and again, this is where Gapwaves model is showing its -- one of its advantages, namely that we can cater to different regional demands for production, localization, et cetera.

And are you having discussions with Bosch about new contracts?

We are in contact with all the leading Tier 1s in various states of progress depending on where they are in those cycles and Bosch is, of course, one of them.

Another question is 1 million produced antennas, majority produced by Frencken for HELLA under license agreement. When can we expect to see production for Valeo to pick up in terms of volumes?

That has already started. Of course, you start from 0. So initially in absolute numbers, the volumes are limited during the first part of the ramp-up. But as I explained in the presentation and some of the questions, during 2026, we're putting the high-volume line in China in place and it's commencing its production. So that volume will continue to ramp up in 2026 and well into 2027. So hitting million volumes annually will start from '27 onwards.

Will Desay use MLW antennas for the first contract? And what antenna is planned for the new contract?

We have an option of different technologies for the Desay antennas that we have developed. So there might be -- there will be plastic antennas as well as MLW antennas.

You mentioned increasing lower-margin production revenues and decreasing higher-margin project revenues. How should we think about the margin in 2026?

That it will be a mix and it will be -- it will be quite dependent on how well we win new projects, we have project revenue with high margin. Switching to high-volume production means lower price per unit. On the other hand, you have significantly higher volumes. Production equipment is with lower margins also because quite a bit of the equipment is automation, which is more of a standardized type of equipment. So it will be a mix and they will be largely dependent on project revenue, but also the continued acceleration and ramp-up for Valeo.

Thank you so much. There are no more questions at this time. So I give you the word to you for some closing remarks.

Well, thank you for the attention. I'm really happy to see the level of activity with all those questions submitted. And I hope that we were able to address your questions. And we try to be very responsive at Gapwaves, so if there are other questions, please submit them and we'll try to address them in upcoming presentations or directly on an individual basis. Thank you so much for your time. And now please take some time and read our Q4 report again. There's a lot of information there. And I think most of the questions are actually -- you can find the answers in the report also. Thank you so much.