Gaztransport & Technigaz SA (GTT) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I'm very pleased to be with you this morning to present to you the H1 2022 results of GTT. To do so, I am with Virginie Aubagnac, the GTT Group CFO; Jean-Baptiste Choimet, who is the Head of Elogen; and also Jean-Baptiste Garnier; and Julien Minot, Investor Relations. Well, the -- you know GTT, we are a technology company. We are developing technology for a sustainable world. Our conviction is that, the most efficient enabler of the energy transition is the technology. We are conceiving cutting-edge technological solutions in order to help building a sustainable world. Our key assets are: human capital, a unique combination of skills; and a very strong intellectual capital through our dynamic intellectual property culture. So the highlights of H1. First of all, it's very strong orders. We received 88 orders for LNG carriers over these 6 months period. In terms of LNG as a fuel, we received 38 orders. Revenues amounted to EUR 144.2 million, which is 13% less than in 2021 and it's due to a base effect, nothing serious there. The EBITDA is amounting to EUR 17.7 million (sic) [ EUR 79.7 million ], which represents a 55% margin, EUR 79.7 million. We had some new FIDs. You know that FIDs are very important because that's what is determining the demand, the need for new LNG carriers and we had 2 FIDs in this period. We had a very strong flow of innovation, we will come back to that. Well, very positive things. All of our activities, I would say, also that Elogen has validated its demand for support to the European Commission for its development. And I signed key partnership for its international development. If we look at our order book, I just would like to stay a couple of minutes on 2 figures. First, at the end of year 2021, we had in our order book, 137 LNG carriers. At the end of June 2022, we had 210 LNG carriers in our order book. So a very strong increase. And in terms of LNG as fuel, at the end of 2021, we had 32 ships in our order book. At the end of June, we had 68 tanks for ships. So very strong increase. Let's look at our activities, focus on innovation. In this period, we introduced new things. We know that when we meet together, we are showing you what we are doing in terms of innovation. We introduced a new design of LNG carriers with 3 tanks rather than 4. It allow us to reduce the cost of the ship. It allow us also to reduce significantly the boil-off of the ship. So it's quite significant for customers. We obtained also an authorization in principle from the DNV classification society for our containment system for liquid hydrogen, and also an AiP for the liquid oxygen -- liquid hydrogen carrier. So that's 2 very strong points in our way forward in our determination to provide technology for transporting liquid hydrogen. We are quite well placed to do so, thanks to all our technologies in liquid methane, in LNG, and that's what we are going to apply to and further develop for liquid hydrogen. So strategy and activity. Well, we know that we are in the middle of an international crisis. What are the consequences for us? About 36% of the European Union gas demand has been met by Russia. It represents about 120 million tonnes per annum of LNG. So in order to cope with the uncertainty of this supply, Europe has decided to increase very significantly its regasification capacities. And we can see many FSRUs to be installed in -- on the course of Germany, 4 or 5, 2 in Netherlands, 2 in Italy, 2 between Finland and Estonia. So all that should mean that new gates will open in order to import LNG in Europe in the years to come. Well, on the energy prices, we can see that it's quite volatile for spot prices as European utilities are looking for LNG cargoes. At the same moment, we can say that the long-term prices, which are mainly indexed on oil are remaining reasonable and attractive, and it's probably why the LNG contracts are keeping on being signed. We can see that since the beginning of 2021, 80 million tonnes per annum of new liquefaction capacities have been signed. So it's a very high figure. You can see on this slide, this constant increase in the liquefaction capacities. When we look at the destination, we can see that China is remaining very strong. That's something that we are talking very often together. China is keeping on increasing its imports, at rates which are double-digit rates, and it's still the same since the beginning of 2022. Now Europe is securing long-term contracts. That's something which is new, which we did not see before. What we -- that means also that LNG is here for the long term in Europe, which is something which was not expected some time ago. Well, Wood Mackenzie is saying the total production of LNG by 2040, close to 800 million tonnes per annum. So in order to do so it's more or less a constant increase in the liquefaction capacities. And in particular in the next years, in order to cope with the demand. So more FIDs are required in order to accompany the increase of the demand. Already, we added 2 FIDs in 2022 for 23 million tonnes per annum, Plaquemines and the Stage 4 of Corpus Christi, 23 million tonnes per annum in the U.S. going to Northeast Asia. I would say, a rule of thumb, it represents something like 45 ships. And many other projects are in the [ offerings ] and are set to be decided in the not too distant future. We are quite well positioned to capture orders from vessel renewal. We consider that many ships have propulsions, which are needing too much energy. And so, they are emitting too much, and they are prone to be replaced by a more modern design, but the case of steam turbine ships, there are 240 in the LNG carrier fleet now. And as we keep on improving technologies for LNG carriers, we and engine manufacturers, we may see some other parts of the current fleet replaced by new ships. So just a figure, 165 ships are steam turbine and are of more than 50 years and have a boil-off twice higher at least than the most modern designs. All that has led us to review our long-term estimates. And we don't do so usually midyear. But in the current circumstances, I would say that we have adopted a more aggressive view on that. And so, for the next 10 years, we consider that the orders GTT should receive should be between 400 and 450. Of course, that is at July 1. It means after all the orders we received in the first part of the year. Let's look at the LNG as fuel activity. We can see a growing attractiveness of LNG as fuel. In fact, if we look at the orders in the first part of the year, 65% of large vessel orders are dual fuel, LNG and oil versus 35% in 2021. So there is a very strong increase in spite of the LNG spot prices and that means for owners, LNG is the solution in order to decrease the emissions of shipping. The other alternative fuels remain totally marginal, 2% for methanol and 0% for ammonia. And that's what we strongly believe and saying for 4 years and that's strongly validated by the market. For GTT, orders on container ships have strongly picked up. We have a market share for container ships at -- of 7,000 TEUs and above market share of more than 50%. So we have become a solution of preference in terms of tanks for container ships. That's something we wanted for quite a long time. We are there. And of course, now we want to further expand this position. So year 2022 is already a record year in terms of orders, not only for LNG carriers, but also for LNG as a fuel tanks. Well, Smart Shipping, it's an activity we are keeping on developing. You know that we develop new applications, new solutions constantly, regularly in order to enrich our portfolio of solutions and to convince new owners of the interest of our solutions. We did so, for example, for -- we had a speed optimization model, which is now adapted to offshore vessels. And we have another model for LNG fuel vessels in order to take into account the heel and to optimize the bunker management. That is seducing people. We received very recently a very significant contract for equipping 30 vessels of a large fleet with our systems. And the more we go, the more we are confident in the potential of these activities. Now I will give the floor to Jean-Baptiste Choimet to speak about Elogen.

Thank you, Philippe. Now I would like to share with you the latest news about Elogen. So I would like to remind you, first, that in the first quarter, we entered into a partnership with a Spanish company, Sarralle, to offer green hydrogen solutions for the steel industry. But in the second quarter, we entered 3 new partnerships to accelerate our international deployment. First, Elogen signed 2 similar partnerships with, respectively, Valmax for Korea and the HIFraser for Australian and New Zealand markets. Under these partnerships, we are currently working on adapting our electrolyzers designs to local codes and standards. And then our partners will bring their capabilities in assembling locally the balance of plants of our electrolyzers. Additionally, we signed a letter of intent with a Canadian company, Charbone, to provide them with up to 100 megawatts of electrolyzer until 2026 in Canada and in the U.S. with an option as well to assemble those electrolyzers locally. In July, we reached 2 critical milestones that paved the way for our scaling up. On July 15, the European Commission validated our participation in the first wave, so-called Hy2Tech of the Hydrogen IPCEI. So now once the level of our subsidy is confirmed by the French government, we will use the support to, one, increase our R&D efforts in terms of stacks development, as well as materials engineering, and second, build our first stacks gigafactory in Vendome in France, and we plan to start it up in 2025. On July 20, we announced the award of a new contract with fuel cell manufacturer, Symbio. Under this order, we will deliver Symbio with a 2.5 megawatt electrolyzer by the end of 2023, and this is our first sale of our open power design and this confirms the appetite of the market for this technical and flexible solution. So with these new partnerships and commercial success, we remain focused on our 3 pillars to ensure our development and success. First pillar is R&D, because we do believe that technology will be key to improve the efficiency and the competitiveness of our electrolyzers and therefore, green hydrogen. The second pillar is the scaling up of our production with, of course, our gigafactory that I just mentioned. And in the meantime, our 160 megawatt manufacturing capacity in our current premises. Our third pillar is our focus on delivering robust and reliable technical solutions to our clients. Thank you for your attention. And now, I will leave the floor to Virginie.

Thank you, Jean-Baptiste. Hello, everyone. Let's move on to financial results of the first half 2022. So in H1 2022, GTT booked 88 LNGC orders which is more than the whole 2021 year. As a result, GTT's core business order book at the end of June 2022, reaches an amount of EUR 1.251 billion for a total of 229 units. This new record order book will contribute EUR 265 million to 2022 revenues, EUR 395 million in 2023, and EUR 445 million in 2024, which represent a notable jump from the EUR 182 million expected revenue in the 21st December 2021 order book. And in 2025, this order book translates into EUR 255 million of revenues, almost the same amount as 2022. Bear in mind that these figures include our Russian exposure shown in red dotted lines on this slide and which represents just under 10% of our total order book. Few comments on GTT's first half consolidated revenues. In H1, our consolidated revenues stood at EUR 144.2 million, showing an expected drop of 12.7% versus the same period last year. As you know, this is due to base effect. Indeed, H1 '21 was still on the wake of 2020 high level, while the 2021 and 2022 strong order inflow will start to materialize in H2 2022 and more significantly from 2023 onwards. Our new builds revenue amounts to EUR 130.7 million, minus 15.1% versus H1 2021. Elogen booked a revenue of EUR 1.7 million in H1, while commercial momentum strongly increased. Services revenues amounted to EUR 11.8 million in H1 2022, an increase of 32.6%, thanks to digital performance, maintenance and assistance services and studies. In H1 2022, GTT booked an EBITDA of EUR 79.7 million, translating into an EBITDA margin of 55.3%, slightly down versus the same period last year due to the drop in revenues partly offset by our lean and fit cost approach. Net income amounted to EUR 63.7 million, translating into a net margin of 44.2%. Working capital decreased by EUR 44.6 million, due to a temporary increase in trade and other receivables. H1 2022 generated free cash flow of EUR 26.8 million, and GTT's cash position reaches EUR 168.2 million at the end of June. Overall cost base was stable in H1 2022 versus the same period last year. Goods purchased increased mainly at Elogen over the period. External costs decreased by 6% despite the resuming of travel expenditure and thanks to cost control approach with subcontractors. Staff cost experienced a limited increase in H1, mainly due to Elogen and thanks to the lean and fit management approach at GTT SA. Let me now give you an update on GTT's exposure to Russian projects or dedicated to Russian projects. As you know, there are 3 kinds of projects. First, the project being built in Russia. 15 icebreaker LNG carriers with Zvezda shipyards, representing EUR 78 million to be recognized by 2025, including EUR 11 million in 2022. 3 gravity-based structures with Saren B.V. as part of the Arctic LNG 2 project, representing EUR 13 million to be recognized by 2026, including EUR 3 million in 2022. Quick update on this, GTT was notified in July by Saren B.V of its intention to terminate the contract between them. In this context, GTT is investigating solutions to ensure the proper implementation and integrity of its technology in strict compliance with applicable international sanctions. The Russian Arctic project built in Asia shipyards, so 6 icebreakers LNG carriers and 2 floating storage units. This project represents EUR 38 million of revenues to be recognized by 2023, including EUR 17 million in 2022. And finally, the projects which are being built by Asian shipyards for Russia, but that can operate in all types of conditions. So there are 8 LNGCs. Let's now move on to our fiscal year 2022 guidance. On February 17, 2022, we published the following revenue and EBITDA objective for 2022. Consolidated revenue in a range of EUR 290 million to EUR 320 million, and consolidated EBITDA in a range of EUR 140 million to EUR 170 million. Given the delay recorded in H1 in the construction schedule of some vessels, we now anticipate reaching the lower half of the sales and EBITDA ranges indicated last February. Our dividend targets remains unchanged with 2022 dividend amount at least equivalent to 2021 dividend amount. I will now let Philippe provide you with an outlook for the medium term and conclude this presentation.

Thank you, Virginie. Well, you can see these very encouraging results. We expect that, in particular, the very strong commercial momentum we are experiencing. I don't know whether you are informed yet, but we announced this morning 8 new LNG carriers for July. So they are not taken into account in the first part of the year, but the second part of the year is beginning well, I would say. So we have a very strong commercial momentum, and that is true on all segments of our activity and we consider that should determine very strong reviews and results in the years to come. Furthermore, I would say that the current situation, international situation, is very much reinforcing the importance of LNG, mainly for European country and other countries, in order to ensure their energy independence, but also beyond that, in order to ensure independence and also a low cost of energy. So it's a message of confidence in the figures of GTT for the years to come. Thank you very much. So now, GTT management is ready to answer to your questions.

Jean-Francois Granjon speaking from ODDO BHF. On the Slide 28, you mentioned the potential revenue expected for the coming years. Could you give us more [ possibly ] the risk coming from the Russian [ exposition ] for '23 and '24? You mentioned already the amount, but could you give us or quantify the potential risk for '23 and '24 from this area?

Yes. We -- in the red dotted line, we just showed the proportion of this impact, which is, as you see, quite manageable for GTT. And by June 30, 2022, it's less than 10%. That gives you just the proportion of this impact, this exposure.

Nicolas Royot, Portzamparc. Could you give us some color about shipyards in Asia, maybe about their capacities to deliver all this backlog? And maybe about social, there were some strikes. So maybe just some comments.

Yes. These flow of orders is coming after years of rather low activity in many shipyards in Asia. So they have to increase their capacities. They have to look for additional workforce. That may not come overnight. So they're working hard on that, I would like to underline that now there are 2 you shipyards which are building LNG carriers in China. There are 2 new shipyards, so to speak, which are building LNG as a fuel tanks in Korea. So the number of partners, active partners of GTT are increasing -- is increasing. But more importantly, shipyards are working in order to see how they can increase their production capacity. And we are working with them in order to do so. So we are actively working with them on that. So we expect that we are going to go from a stage where shipyards could produce about 55 to 60 ships earlier in Asia to a situation where they are going to be able to produce between 75 and 80 ships. In terms of strikes, it's true that there were some social movement at the beginning of this year, which have concerned our partners. They are looking for people. They have significantly increased the prices of the LNG carriers. So well, there are some demands. For the time being, it's over. And I think I'm quite confident, as you can imagine, we know quite well in Korea that's something which may happen from time to time in Korea. But we are quite confident in their capability to produce and deliver all the LNG carriers they've contracted on time.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Kevin Roger with Kepler.

[ That would ] be related to the non-core businesses. The first one is related to Elogen. Can you provide us a bit of color on the potential support that you will have from the IPCEI? Is there any figures that you can share with us in terms of support for CapEx or on the [indiscernible] and also research and development? And the second one is related to the liquid hydrogen. Is it correct to say that you are probably a bit in advance compared to your business plan as you have received the 2 approvals in principle already for the technology? I think you were targeting a technology already for '25 and [indiscernible] in '26. So are you a bit in advance? And then in terms of, let's say, pricing methodology, would you follow the same mindset that you have on the LNGC, meaning the square meter basis, things like that, we use the same prices whatever the technology or is it something completely different?

IPCEI?

So I will answer on the first question regarding Elogen and the IPCEI. I would love to know these figures myself, but unfortunately, this is still in the hands of the French government. We are currently working on contractualizing the scheme for the subsidy, but we don't know yet the figure. And it will be made public by the French government for all the, as far as we understand, all the IPCEI projects together and it will be revealed by the French commission. So the figure will be public at the end.

On the liquid hydrogen carrier, well, it's a very complicated development. We are very pleased by this achievement. Bear in mind that it's something which is totally new. We will have to make sure that the parts, the materials, the equipment for these technologies will be produced somewhere in the world. We will have to set up supply chains. Our target is to have all that ready by 2025 in order to allow an owner to order ship by 2025. So for such an innovative development, an additional couple of years is really not too much. We are happy to be -- to lead this [ OS ] and we want to be on time. Just in a nutshell, we are making liquid hydrogen transport possible. And that may change the economy of hydrogen, if you can produce hydrogen in places where electricity is very affordable and you can liquefy it, you can transport it on long distance, thanks to a ship designed by GTT. So for all those who are looking at this possibility, the big energy companies, it's something which is very important. A key segment of this chain is answered. We've provided a solution for that. So this chain is becoming possible. And still a lot of work to do before having liquid hydrogen carrier in a hub or somewhere in the world, but we are working hard.

The next question is from Edward Bottomley with Berenberg.

I just have 2 from my side. So looking at your order book by year of delivery, it would appear shipyard capacity has increased to 80 vessels per year. And given we've seen order wins from -- in the first half from new Chinese shipyards, Jiangnan and Dalian. You mentioned that you thought that vessel capacity could -- construction capacity could go to 75 to 80 going forward. My question would be, at Q1 results, you talked about non-Asian shipyards also moving towards LNG carrier construction. How is this going? And could this further increase that construction capacity number above 75 to 80?

Well, this is something which is considered by non-Asian shipyards. It has an -- it's becoming, I would say, more and more feasible in terms of costs and prices as prices of LNG carriers have very significantly increased in Asia. It's also becoming quite significant in terms of independence. So no decision yet. We -- but we can see that some kind of LNG carriers, small LNG carriers, for example, or FSRUs are not so much interested in Asian shipyards, because they have such a demand that they are a little bit disregarding these kind of ships. So it may give an opportunity to non-Asian shipyards in the years to come. So it's still ongoing.

Yes, maybe on the 80 deliveries in 2024, it includes onshore storage and [ VLSC ]. So it's not only LNGCs.

[Operator Instructions] Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time.

For the first half, could you give us the impact of Elogen development in terms of losses or like of EBITDA margin and what do you expect for the coming years? And the second question, could you [indiscernible] the gigafactory project. So when do you -- I understand that it would depend on the IPCEI for sure. But when do you think to start the building of the gigafactory? And what is the timing for the start of the production? And do you confirm the breakeven point in 2025?

On Elogen figures in 2022, it follows what we expect. So it's still at the beginning of this story and it's not profitable yet and we do not expect it to be profitable in 2022. But it's very limited. So it's under control and as we planned. And on the gigafactory?

And on the gigafactory, we plan to start construction next year. And like I said, we plan to start the stacks production in 2025.

Just a quick update on the KFTC process?

On KFTC process, I would say that it's continuing. The hearings in Seoul in front of the High Court are continuing. And we are expecting a decision by the end of 2022 or very beginning of 2023.