GE Vernova T&D India Limited (522275) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the GE T&D India Limited conference call for the third quarter and 9 months ended 31st December 2022. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Suneel Mishra, Head of Investor Relations, GE T&D India Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Thank you, Darwin. Good day, and welcome to this conference call that has been organized to present and discuss financial results for the third quarter and 9 months ended on 31st December 2023. Now let me introduce GE T&D India management team available on this call. So we have with us Mr. Sushil Kumar, who is the Whole-Time Director and Chief Financial Officer. We also have with us Mr. Sandeep Zanzaria, who is our Commercial leader. Let me also take the opportunity to welcome our new Company Secretary, Ms. Anupriya Garg, who joined the company in January 2023. Moreover, we have with us Mr. Anshul Madaan, who is our Communication Leader. Please note that this conference call is scheduled up to 6:00 p.m. I hope you would have received the investor analyst presentation and the same has been uploaded on our website. I hope you have also read out the disclaimer as per Slide #2. So Mr. Sushil Kumar will begin this conference call highlighting key events of the quarter. Thereafter, Mr. Sandeep Zanzaria will take us to the pages on order book and the grid market. Further, Mr. Sushil Kumar will also provide his insights on the pages presented on financial. Moreover, both Sushil Kumar and Mr. Sandeep Zanzaria will be available to provide answers to your questions during Q&A. I would now request Mr. Sushil Kumar, to begin the conference with his opening words. Over to Mr. Sushil Kumar.

Thank you, Suneel. Ladies and gentlemen, good evening. Thanks for joining the call. We hope you and your family members are healthy and safe. Let me start by giving you a brief overview about the last quarter and then we'll move to the commercial retail, as Suneel just talked about. So during the third quarter for the financial year 2022-'23, we saw an increase in the orders compared to the previous quarter. Our orders were up by 59% at INR 7.8 billion compared to INR 4.9 billion in the previous quarter. And we were up by 53% compared to quarter 3 of the previous financial year. So our orders for the industry segments such as refineries and data centers continue to grow gradually, adding diversity to our backlog and by providing more opportunities for efficiency. Sandeep will cover more about this in his address. On revenue front, though our revenue saw a decrease in the third quarter to INR 7.8 billion compared to INR 9.1 billion in quarter 3 of financial year 2021 -- sorry, '21-'22. Primarily, this reduction was due to lower backlog resulting from reduced order booking in last couple of years caused by COVID-19 pandemic. However, due to successful project execution and various improvement efforts, our profit before tax increased. In quarter 3, we posted a profit before tax and exceptional item of INR 134 million compared to INR 4 million in quarter 3 of the previous financial year. Our execution team continued to show great diligence and through their consistent implementation of lean initiatives and cost-saving measures, we were able to improve our productivity. Likewise, in cash, we posted improvement and generated about INR 1.5 billion of cash in the third quarter of the current financial year. And as a result, our net debt as on 31st December 2022, reduced to INR 2.1 billion versus INR 3.6 billion as of September 30, 2022. We had many significant execution activity and many projects were commissioned. The details are given on the Page 4 of the presentation. However, I would like to touch upon the few key ones during the quarter. So during the quarter, we commission 4 bays of 765 kV GIS substation with six 765 kV lines reactors at Vadodara for LVTL Sterlite Power Transmission Limited. We had commissioned 132 kV GIS substation at Ramnagar for West Bengal State Electricity Transmission Company Limited, 9 bays of 245 kV with substation automation system augmentation for Power Grid at Salakati substation, 18 bays of 400 kV GIS with 3,600 meters of GIS Busbar for L&T at Thallayapalem in Andhra Pradesh and 6 bays of 220 kV GIS with 1,200 meters of GIS busbar for Sterlite in Vadodara Gujarat. So before I hand over to Sandeep, I would like to take this opportunity also to talk about key developments and updates, which happened in the budget presented by the Finance Minister in the beginning of February. So in terms of key announcements, the Finance Minister's latest budget of 2023-'24 has laid emphasis on government commitment to move towards net zero carbon emission by 2070. So green energy, in fact, is one of the 7 most important priorities of the budget. It includes allocation of INR 35,000 crores of priority capital investment towards achieving this net zero emission by 2070. The budget also has set aside a vital INR 8,300 crores from the central funds towards the INR 20,000 crores was project for building the interstate transmission system for the evacuation and grid integration of 13 gigawatts of renewable energy from Ladakh. This reaffirms the government's commitment towards harnessing renewable energy through the planned mega solar wind hybrid plant at Leh. This project, we have been talking about in the past as well. With the inclusion in the Union Budget, the project is expected to pick up its pace. The clean energy acceleration along with government's focus on introduction of policy reforms such as reforms in the EV sector as well as overall manufacturing landscape will also boost the transmission industry. So in terms of our priorities, we will pick up the orders and help to grow the profitability, keeping in mind the long-term sustainability and profitability in these orders. So we'll continue to be selective for the orders, which give us the revenue, margin and cash rather than being aggressive at a very low price. And with this, now I hand over to Sandeep to share more details on the order booking and the market scenario. Over to you, Sandeep.

Thank you, Sushil, and definitely, I think there is a strong push by the Government of India for the net zero to be achieved and also to achieve the target of putting renewables of 500 gigawatt till 2030, and I think it's going to demand a lot of investment in transmission sectors as well apart from the generation side. And of course, the generation side also has some part of transmission piece. So you really look at the last quarter, the orders grew at about 53%. So we closed at about INR 780 crores as compared to INR 510 crores. And for a 9-month, we have INR 1,865 crores versus INR 1,616 crores. The major orders have been -- I think the orders have been all along in multiple domains, but the major order has been 400/220 kV GIS substation for a private refinery in Gujarat, also 200 kV GIS substation for Kutch Copper for Adani Transmission. And then from Tata Power, we have one in order for 400 kV AIS substation for the 1,000-megawatt plant in Rajasthan. And then there are multiple orders for the upgradation or supply of new substation automation systems grids with cybersecurity at 11 sites in NTPC or it is for L&T Data Center at Kancheepuram or we have won it from Techno Electric for their 400/220/33 kV substations at Dharhdehi and also from Megha for Gudivada. Apart from that, we have also won a renovation and modernization project of 400 and,132 kV substation with the automation system from Rihand Stage I for NTPC. So I think overall, from the orders, it was a much better quarter, but of course, the endeavor is to do much better than what we have achieved. Thank you.

Thanks, Sandeep. So before we open up for question and answers, I'll just briefly touch upon the financial performance of the company, which is given on the Page 6 of the presentation. I talked about revenue in the earlier section, while the revenue overall is down 15% for the quarter compared to the last year. And similarly, on a 9-month basis, the overall revenue at INR 20.7 billion is lower by about 14%. However, a significant change or improvement is happening on the profitability side. Our gross profit for the quarter -- current quarter was 30.4%. And on a 9-month basis, it was 29.8%. And this happened because of better project execution and the cost saving initiative as we talked about. And as a result, the EBITDA improved to 5% on a quarter 3 as well as 9-month basis, whereas previous year, we had a quarter EBITDA of 3.3% and a 9-month EBITDA of 2.2%. So this improvement in EBITDA also resulted into an improved profit before tax. So for the quarter, we generated INR 135 million of profit before tax and exceptional items compared to almost a breakeven scenario in the previous year. And on a 9-month basis, we generated INR 338 million of profit before tax and exceptional items compared to a loss of almost equivalent amount in the previous year. I talked about the improvement in net debt. So during the quarter, we generated a positive cash flow of INR 1.5 billion, resulting in a reduction -- corresponding reduction in the debt from INR 3.6 billion end of September to INR 2.1 billion at the end of December. On Page 7, we have, as usual, shown the breakup of orders and revenue between export and domestic. So for the quarter, about 32% of the orders were from the export segment and about 68% orders were from the domestic market. On a 9-month basis, order have almost a similar trend of 33% from export and 67% from the domestic market. On the revenue front, during the quarter, 26% of the revenue came from export and 74% of the revenue was from domestic market. On a 9-month basis, 30% of the revenue as a total INR 20.7 billion of revenue was from the export segment and about INR 14.4 billion or 70% of the revenue were from the export market -- sorry, domestic market. Overall, in terms of orders in hand, we had about INR 34 billion of order of which 66% is from the private customers, about 17% is from the state utilities and 17% from the central utilities and PSUs. With that, now we'll open for question and answers. Thank you.

[Operator Instructions] We have the first question from the line of Mohit Kumar from DAM Capital.

Two questions on my side. First is on the order opportunity. How is the order opportunity looking at this point of time? And are you -- and given the fact that too many HVDC project, which will be -- which should be up for bidding in FY '24? Can you just comment on that?

Mohit, Sandeep here. So basically, our order book position is looking, I would say, the Rajasthan TBCB projects were stuck because of GIB issues and Khavda was stuck for the clearance part of it. So I think in the last few days, what we have seen that the reverse auction for those projects have started happening. And in fact, the packages -- the reverse auction has also got completed and the parties who have got probably would get these orders in like maybe what, 3 to 4 weeks' time. So I think the market has started moving. That is one good and then we expect now the market condition to improve much better. And also for the HVDC, yes, I think in '23-'24, we are expecting into '23-'24 probably it might be 1 project or 2 projects, we are not very sure because there are 2 projects on the horizon immediately. The one is Badala, Fatehpur, which will come on TBCB route and second will be Leh-Ladakh as Sushil covered in his initial remarks that the government has already allocated part of the fund is [ liable ] to their funding for the project. So yes, definitely the horizon for '23-'24 or '24-'25 in terms of HVDC looks to be a very bright one. And also for the general market, for example, transformer substations, also it looks to be a much better market. We expect a good substantial market growth in the coming year.

Sir, do we see any activities in distribution, which should help us in terms of order inflow going forward?

So on distribution, see, our area of participation is very limited. So our area of participation is mostly on 2 fronts, whether it is the grid automation, which is very miniscule, I would say, in terms of the overall packaging -- overall the number of distribution market because primarily the company is operating into 66 kV and above segments because as all our GIS, AIS transformer all products are offered on 66 kV and above. But on the control center sides, and the upgradation of the distribution company, which is eventually going to happen with a lot of cities coming with control centers and all, [ bids ] and market we'll expect to grow and probably that area, we have a good strong presence because a lot of regional load dispatch centers and [indiscernible] the loads of dispatch centers have been made by us in the country. So that area once the government investment picks up, we expect a good amount of ordering to happen. And also, we expect the company to take a decent amount of market share in that. But the time lines have been shifting. So I think next year should be much better on that front.

And how do you see this private CapEx cycle? Do you see that helping you in the getting some order inflow going forward in the next 12 months?

Sir, private CapEx where we see that, for example, TBCB project is totally on private CapEx only which is coming. So I think it's quite robust. It's basically either power grid or that. And apart from that, we are also seeing in terms of private CapEx, there is a good amount of investment, which is coming in the solar wind hybrid projects which the developer countries are putting up. And also in addition to that, even when we are looking at the private CapEx in terms of, for example, green hydrogen. So green hydrogen is going to require a huge amount of renewable capacity for feeding them. So that will also require a good amount of transmission infrastructure to be put in. And apart from this, also one area of transmission infrastructure in private CapEx is industries as well. So for example, last year, or the year which is going we see a good amount of investment happening in metals and oil and gas. So I guess there is a substantial, I would say, sustainable investment happening on the private CapEx side also.

The EBITDA margin aspiration in the medium term?

So you're asking about the margin target?

Yes, sir, your targeted, your goal, which you want to achieve next, let's say, 2, 3 years.

Sushil, you would like to take that? Or should I go?

Yes. So 2 parts on the margin. The first one is on the execution side. And as I mentioned in my comments earlier that for the quarter, we achieved a margin of 30.4%, which is a much improved situation compared to the last 2 years, which were impacted by COVID. Similarly on a 9-month basis, we had about close to 30% of margin. And here for us is to find the improvement opportunities further and try to improve it further by a couple of percentage points, if that is feeble through better negotiation and better project execution. Similarly, Sandeep, you can probably guide if the price in the market is trending upward or not. And can we see a better margin on the orders in the future.

So yes, I think looking into the capacity additions, which are happening or which are planned to happen. We expect a slight increase in the price realization in the market.

The next question is from the line of Bhavin Vithlani from SBI Mutual Fund.

So a few questions. First is on the orders. So in the previous quarter, we kind of highlighted that there were INR 500-odd crores of L1 which could not be finalized, but it is always INR 100 crores or INR 150 crores of L1. So INR 350-odd crores was a spillover. If I take that out from the current quarter's order flow, then the order flow in this quarter looks pretty subdued at INR 430-odd crores. So your views on this and what do we see as a trend for the year as a whole and the next year?

Bhavin, Sandeep here. So basically, out of the INR 500 crores what we -- were the lowest and we were expecting the orders. Out of that, close to about more than INR 200 crores had slipped and it has actually moved to the Q4. And out of that, partly close to about INR 200 crores has already come in also. So it was that INR 500 crores due to procedural issues and multilateral funding requirements, the orders had actually slipped off about INR 200 crores through this quarter.

Sir, now going forward, given our cost structure, and I think we need over INR 4,500 crores to INR 5,000 crores kind of a run rate to achieve a double-digit margin given that you have been highlighting 30%, 31% as sustainable gross margin. Do you see that trend at least on the order front in fiscal '24 at least directionally, are we moving to that kind of a run rate on the orders front?

So Bhavin, I would say here that I would not put any number to be target what we have because we don't forecast or we don't, for example, give such guidances. But 2, 3 things, what we are very clear in terms of our strategy is that we follow -- we follow a very disciplined process of orders taken at kind of secured payment terms, at least with private clients and also at different margins. And that's what you have seen also in the improvement in the performance of the company as well, but yes, with the growth in the market, which is happening, yes, definitely, we expect growth in orders also to come in the next year.

Sure. We do understand. And could you give us an update on the HVDC projects bidding, especially the Leh-Ladakh and which -- and if you could name the other which are at least in the active discussion phase?

So Bhavin, Leh-Ladakh, as Sushil said that the government has given an allocation of close to about INR 8,000 crores to INR 9,000 crores in the budget. The Financial Minister has declared in the present budget as a liability GAAP funding for this project. So we expect now this project to move forward and of course, not be possible for us to comment on the competition part on the project side.

Sandeep, you can probably highlight about fewer HVDCs that we see in a couple of...

Yes. So I think if you would have seen there is a Government of India renewable plan, which has been issued for the projects, which are right up till -- to be commissioned in 2030. And Government of India wants to increase their capacity, the installed capacity from about close to 167 gigawatts to 537 gigawatt. In that report, the government has clearly defined -- so there are about 3 projects, which will be close to about 8 gigawatt -- sorry, 6 gigawatt 800 kV each. So 1 is Badala, Fatehpur, which we are expecting to come in next 1 to 2 months. Subsequently, there are 2 other projects also, which will be Barmer, Jabalpur, and Khavda, Aurangabad. So each project will be equivalent, if you remember, we did Champa, Kurukshetra 1, Champa, Kurukshetra 2. So each project is, Champa 1 and Champa, 2 put together in 1 consolidated. So it is 6 gigawatt 800 kV each project.

And Sandeep, we can probably also highlight the timing when we expect these 3.

So I think -- that's what I said Badala, Fatehpur is going to -- in TBCB, of course, the award process will take a bit of time, but we expect the next 1 to 2 months to be issued by the government. And then subsequently, probably in next, I think, every year kind or maybe with a gap of about 12 to 18 months, we expect 1 after the other project to follow for 3 projects. Also, what we understand in this case is, there are some -- I read in -- so the talks between the Government of India and Government of Sri Lanka has also started for HVDC probably built between India and Sri Lanka. So Government-to-government talks also has been reported and probably that once it gets cleared, that would also be an opportunity. But maybe I'm expecting it in 2 years from now.

That's helpful. Just a question on the [indiscernible] kind of guided that we are bidding in the 28% to 32% gross margin. And we have now come to that level. Are you actually seeing because when we look at the profitability of some of the standard on transformer companies that actually the numbers are pretty encouraging. And you see the mid teens kind of EBITDA-level margins. Sir, is it that our profitability is very good in the transformers and switchgear piece of it where we are lacking? So a little more color on that will be useful. And when do we see that our margins moving to the double-digit trajectory?

So it has, Bhavin, a combination of 2 things. One is the volume. Historically, we also in the year '18 and '19, we had about double-digit -- more than double digit kind of EBITDA levels. Those come when the HVDC projects are under execution. So if we see next couple of year scenario and then Sandeep talked about 3 HVDC projects other than Leh-Ladakh being -- one being expected every year. So those HVDC projects add significantly to the volume and then that kind of volume comes, so operating leverage comes into play and the EBITDA levels increase. The second dimension is the -- has the execution side of the existing backlog. So last couple of years, there was a significant commodity price increase, which means the margin on -- when you took those charges in the last financial year. Unfortunately, margin on some of the existing backlog reduced to very low levels. And those projects are under execution. So over the next 12 months and the low-margin backlog phase out and the new backlog with healthier margin comes into picture, then we expect a further improvement provided there are no other factors impacting, meaning we stay very tight on the sourcing negotiation, making sure that the projects are delivered as per the absolute margin and all other risks are mitigated in the project. Plus, at the same time, till the volumes catch up, we'll also continue to focus on reducing our structural cost also, further reduction in the structure cost. So a combination of volume, which can come in future through HVDC, change in the mix of the projects and reduction in the structure costs are the 3 factors which the management is working to make further improvement in the profitability.

Just last question from my side. So after retirement of Mr. Pitamber, what is the new leadership looking like? Pardon me if this has been spoken about in the call, I joined really late.

Yes. So the NRC committee is evaluating the right potential candidate for this position. And hopefully, in the next 2 to 3 months, there should be an announcement.

The next question is from the line of Subhadip Mitra from Nuvama.

Sir, my question is 2 parts. So firstly, just wanted to get an understanding that with regard to these large HVDC projects, which are expected. Would there be any ballpark understanding of what will be the cost of each of these projects?

You mean the value -- the size of the value?

Yes. See the value of each of these projects, correct.

Sandeep, if you can answer this?

Sir, I think if you look at the transmission planning document or this planning document, which has been issued. So badala, Fatehpur, the estimated cost, which is given is about INR 12,500 crores, but our assessment is that it will be higher than that. So each project -- but apart from the HVDC, there is a component of transmission line also involved in that project, it is close to about 1,000 kilometers.

Understood. So if I -- if one were to look at, let's say, this INR 12,500 crores to INR 13,000 crores kind of project cost. Within that, our addressable value would be ballpark how much? 60%, 70% or higher?

So yes, it will be higher than 50%.

Okay. Understood. And secondly, with regard to the non HVDC funnel or pipeline of projects that you're seeing coming up. In your best guess, what would be the estimated order basket out there over the next 2 to 3 years?

So I expect close to about -- it will be close to about INR 250 billion or something in that range, it will be every year for the substation and the...

[indiscernible] every year?

Every year.

Okay. And this includes substations and what else did you mention, sorry?

So certain utilities would buy transformers for [ loose ] product, or certain utilities buy circuit breaker or instrument transformer or grid automation has those. So the complete the scope in which we participate, I'm talking about, that will be the market what we track for our purposes.

Understood. And typically, what kind of market share would you target?

It will be difficult to say that because there are a lot of large projects, which will be there, so winning or losing one large project actually distort the market share. But...

Excluding HVDC also you're saying...

Yes, even excluding HVDC, also, there are projects which will be like maybe INR 700 crores, INR 800 crores. So those volume of projects will also in there. So one project can distort the market share in a bit there.

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Parikshit Kandpal from HDFC Securities.

Sir, my question is on the fixed -- the breakup of the order book in terms of fixed price and variable price on the backlog.

So Parikshit, I don't have that information readily available at this moment.

Because I think in the past, you have said that we are moving more towards variable contracts. Directionally if we are moving towards that. Okay, maybe I'll take it later. Sir, my second question is on the base orders. So do you see that pipeline is now much better than it was like a couple of quarters back? So can you touch upon that?

Yes, definitely, the big pipeline today is much better. So as I was saying that, for example, if I look at last about a week's time, there are about 5 projects of TBCB, where the reverse auction has happened. And there is a big pipeline of about maybe about 7, 8 projects more, which is going to happen by end of March. So I -- the pipeline which is there for Rajasthan, Gujarat and other parts stood much stronger and of course, we are seeing some traction happening even in stage utility market as well, for example, the [indiscernible] and other fuel utilities. Also, we expect new tenders to come in. So overall, I would say that the pipeline is much robust as compared to the last 2, 3 years.

if you can quantify between now and March, what could be like potentially our prospects where we have bid for on planning to bid?

So I think there are a lot of bids that are already in place, but the decisions have yet to be taken. And of course, there is a market, for example, I said that TBCB reverse auctions have happened in last 1 week or so the developers they are able to decide by 31st March, then there is a different pipeline. If they are not able to decide then it will move into next year. So still I feel that probably this last quarter would have close to about more than INR 5,000 crores of decision need to be made.

Okay. So you think in fourth quarter, about INR 5,000 crores of decision-making has to happen. That's kind of a floating decision-making, but it may happen. If it doesn't happen, it will flow through into FY '24?

Yes.

But that INR 4,000 is overall or beyond that, like you have further pipeline where you could participate, I mean, in export markets and other opportunities outside this TBCB?

So definitely, pipeline is there and it is going to continue to get generated. For example, decision-making if it shifts to the Q1 of '23-'24, then it will be a robust quarter that one as well. But otherwise, normally, what we have seen that the Q1 is a slower quarter. But looking into the government push for '24, a lot of commissioning and making the renewable targets. I think the pipeline is going to remain robust for the next year, definitely very strong one.

Okay. So just on the capacity utilization, sir, so what is the capacity utilizing we are running at currently, our operations are running at?

So different product lines so different units have different capacity utilization. It will be difficult to answer in 1 number, but overall, in terms of, let's say, capacity to execute revenue. Historically, we have been able to achieve about INR 4,300 crores of revenue and at the current rate, this financial year looks like INR 2,800 crores revenue. So which means that we can easily with -- if we get the large HVDC orders or the other TBCB kind of orders, we can increase our execution by 50%, and that has been demonstrated in the past.

And just last thing, why is the other income there was negative other income in this quarter, sir?

Yes. So this quarter, we have a significant ForEx impact. That impact overall in the current quarter P&L is to the extent of INR 290 million. As an accounting practice, last quarter, we had a gain. So in terms of financial presentation, to the extent the loss was offsetting the income of the last quarter or the first 6 months has been reversed in the other income. And there, you see a negative INR 67 million. And the balance impact is in the expense side of the P&L. And the ForEx impact is largely on account of mark-to-market of the hedge contract because the euro and dollar move upwards.

Sir, what would be the total adjusted EBITDA if this impact was not there? Sir, I think you've reversed INR 67 million to show the adjusted impact on EBITDA, but if this was not effect the normal quarter, would have been our EBITDA margin?

So the EBITDA that we have presented in our presentation, I think instead of taking a quarter, we should talk about 9 months because some the quarter, there was a positive ForEx, there was a negative ForEx. So we have, on a 9-month basis, INR 270 million of ForEx impact in the P&L.

ForEx loss?

Yes, loss.

And how much of that is in your other expenses?

Largely, it is a part of other expense because on a 9-month basis, there is the all-year impact on the income side has been nullified. So mostly, it is in the other expense. So if we add this, let's say, if you want to evaluate EBITDA before ForEx impact, NTM impact, then we have to add INR 270 million to the EBITDA of INR 390 million. So that will be roughly -- we'll just quickly take a net, but roughly it should improve the EBITDA by at least 3 percentage points for the quarter -- sorry, for 9 months, it should be 1.5. So roughly, we should have an EBITDA of on a 9-month basis, INR 1.3 billion and it should be around 6.5%.

So what could be the loss -- what will be the ForEx impact in the 9 months Y-o-Y of FY '22 like INR 29 crores, which you said was a hit this year?

INR 270 crores loss for the current 9 months and previous financial year, 9 months, we had income of INR 150 million, INR 148 to be precise.

Okay. Sir, just the last, the export opportunity. So you gave about INR 250 billion, INR 25,000 crores market price for domestic non-HVDC opportunity. So what would be the similar number for exports because exports are being -- order booking has been good. So how are we addressing the vacuum there? How do we intend to grow that market? And what would be the prospect opportunity in the export market?

So I'll make a few comments, and then I'll request Sandeep to add on. Globally due to Russia and Ukraine war and energy independence concept that Europe is driving right now. There has been a very significant increase in the demand across Europe and U.S. And overall, the transmission and distribution market, which was earlier hardly growing at a rate of 1%, 1.5%. Overall, we think in European market, the global grid business sees a demand of more than 8% to 10% for the next few years, maybe the next 5 to 7 years, which is a very significant increase. But our export opportunities depend on the grid business winning, and it is very fragmented. I mean we don't have an independent entity, bid across all the projects globally. More than half of the business in the export segment comes from the group entity, and then we also have some selected third-party bidding in the other markets. But definitely, because of this increase in demand, our export volumes are increasing. And as we have shown in the presentation, 32% of the orders have come from the export segment. I don't have the number of the last year available, but this is definitely higher than the last year. Let me see if I can basically get the last year number. So last year, we had 20% for the export segment and 80% domestic market. So our shift of mix from 20% to 32% happened in the period of last 1 year. Sandeep, you can add if I miss to answer any part of this opportunity.

No, I think, Sushil, you are right. And of course, yes, there is a constant endeavor that, for example, the Indian factories keep on getting qualified because ours is a more regulated market. So the individual factories for a company needs to get qualified with various customers. So it's a regular endeavor, which we keep on doing to get the Indian factories qualified and then, of course, we keep on pushing products. But yes, as Sushil that direct product is, of course, a different thing. But in projects, we are totally dependent on other geographies to win the project and then buy the products from GE T&D. So I think there's a lot of interdependence there.

And if you can just clear what could be the opportunity or prospect like exports opportunity prospect, like you said INR 25,000 crores for domestic. So what is the addressable market right now you are catering in terms of prospects in export markets?

So that will be very difficult to quantify today that what is the prospect of export market, primarily because like, for example, we look at the global transmission market, it is in the range of close to about $52 million to $55 million. Of course, when based on because we have factories at multiple locations, then addressing different geographies. So that's why it's slightly difficult to quantify the export potential because...

What would have bid for 9 months -- sir, how much you'd have bid in export market for 9 months if you can quantify that so that we can get some sense on what you have won out of that. So what would be the bid win ratio or what you have bid for last 9 months that number?

I think there, our market share would have been close to about 30% to 35%.

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Mohit Kumar from DAM Capital. .

So first question is, sir, do you enter into a prepaid tie-up for TBCB opportunities as I understand the power grid floors or tenders for pre-bid?

Yes, we do enter into pre-bid agreements whenever and wherever possible.

Understood, sir. Second question, sir, do we have price protection in the HVDC project generally because given the fact that they are going to large projects and you need to have some kind of pre-bid tie-ups because they're limited number of players, and they also need to get more clarity on the pricing part.

So the on TBCB route, the HVDC projects have never been awarded. So this will be the first opportunity where the HVDC project is going to come on TBCB route. And then, yes, definitely will enter into negotiations with the developers to protect our interest in terms of price variations and things like that. So definitely. But this would be the first of its kind. So it will be more of an exploration and developmental process, which is going to happen.

Understood, sir. Lastly on the export market, which are the key export markets for us?

So we supply to, for example, complete Southeast Asia, even to Australia. We have got order from Japan as well. Also for African markets, Latin American market. Few very selected products to go to even European markets also. So it depends upon the product, and it also depends upon the acceptance of the end customer in these geography. But Africa, Southeast Asia, these 2 are consistent markets for us.

Understood. Lastly, sir, are we looking to expand our suite of products for tapping the opportunities?

So I think globally, whatever manufacturing is being done by GE globally, I think except for 1 or 2 products, which have a very limited demand and for limited applications. Everything what we manufactured that GE manufactures the GE T&D in India. So product-wise, yes, obviously, we are not looking at, but we keep on adding new product ranges to our existing product portfolios. Like, for example, whether it is relays or even in GIS of circuit breakers. We keep on adding different voltages and localization. So that's how we expand the product portfolio. But for example, as of today, we are not planning to add a new product line itself to the existing portfolio.

[Operator Instructions] As there are no further questions, I now hand the conference over to Mr. Suneel Mishra for the closing comments. Over to you, sir.

Yes, Thank you, Darwin. So thank you, everyone, for your participation. With this, we conclude today's conference call. In case if you have any other questions, then please feel free to contact me or Mr. Anshul Madaan, on the e-mail ID given at our website. So thanks once again.

Thank you. On behalf of GE T&D India Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.