Geberit AG (GBERY) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Geberit's Half Year Results Conference Call. Geberit achieved convincing results in the first half of the year. Let me start, as usual, with the three key statements for H1. First, we achieved a net sales growth of 4% in local currencies despite a continued challenging market environment. Second, excluding onetime costs for the closure of our ceramics plant in Wesel, we kept operating margin stable. And third, we achieved an EPS growth of 6% if the plant closure costs and negative currency effects are excluded. Let me begin our review with a few comments on the top line for the first half of the year. Net sales increased by 2% to CHF 1.66 billion, negatively affected by currency effects. Negative currency effects led to a net sales loss of CHF 37 million or minus 2%. In local currencies, net sales increased by 4%, driven by growth in almost all countries in Europe and the continued strong development of new products. The top line growth was fully driven by volumes. The sales price effect was around zero in H1 since the positive effect of the sales price increase in the second quarter was compensated by a technically driven negative price effect in Q1 and selective price adjustments in Switzerland due to the strengthening of the Swiss franc over the last years. This brings me to the regional net sales development. All growth figures refer to growth in local currencies. In Austria, net sales increased by 10%, thanks to strong growth with our new products. In Germany, net sales grew by 6% with double-digit growth in Bathroom Systems. In Benelux, net sales grew 6% with growth in both countries, Belgium and Netherlands. In Italy, net sales were up by 3% in a softening new build market. Net sales in Eastern Europe increased by 2%, negatively affected by a strong base effect. In the Nordic countries, net sales grew by 1% with growth in all countries, excluding Norway. Switzerland and Western Europe were the only two regions in Europe, which recorded a sales decline, both by minus 3% in the first half of 2025. Switzerland was affected by selective price adjustments due to the strengthening of the Swiss franc over the last years. And Western Europe was negatively affected by a market decline in France, which was only partially offset by strong growth in Iberia. Let me now turn to the regions outside Europe. In the Middle East, Africa region, net sales increased by 25%, driven by Turkey and South Africa. In America, net sales grew by 10% due to the strong U.S. faucet business. Net sales in Far East Pacific declined by minus 5%, driven by declines in China, partially offset by strong growth in India. Let me now comment on the sales development per product area, again, in local currencies. Installation & Flushing Systems and Piping Systems both increased by 3%. Bathroom Systems net sales grew by 6%, driven by strong growth of our shower toilets and the U.S. faucet business. Let me now comment on the sales development in the second quarter. Net sales declined by minus 2% and reached CHF 787 million in Q2. The negative currency effect accelerated versus the first quarter and affected the top line negatively by CHF 34 million or minus 4%. In local currencies, group net sales increased by 3% with one working day less than last year. The sales price effect in Q2 was around 0% since the positive effect of the general sales price increase as of April was still limited due to the fact that deliveries in April and even into May were mostly still on old price levels and because of the beforementioned currency-driven price adjustments in Switzerland. Let me turn now to the regional development, again in local currencies for Q2. In Europe, net sales increased by 1%, a slight slowdown versus the first quarter due to more challenging comps in the second quarter and wholesaler rebalancing after prebuying before the April price increase. Outside Europe, net sales increased in the Middle East, Africa region by 36%, driven by very strong growth in Turkey and in America by 15%, partially due to the prebuying of customers in anticipation of tariff-related price adjustments. Net sales in Far East Pacific declined by minus 8%, driven by declines in China, partially offset by growth in India. I continue with the sales development by product area in Q2, again in local currencies. Installation & Flushing Systems and Piping Systems both increased by 1%, while Bathroom Systems increased by 6%, driven by the strong growth of the shower toilet business and the U.S. faucet business. I come back to the first half of the year with some comments on the operating and financial results. The negative currency effect as well as the onetime charges related to the closure of the Wesel plant led to a declining operating results in Swiss francs on all levels. We booked EUR 17 million onetime costs for the site closure in Wesel in the first half of the year. EUR 12 million on OpEx level already fully booked in Q1 and EUR 5 million on depreciation level, thereof EUR 2 million already booked in Q1 and EUR 3 million in Q2. Excluding the site closure costs and excluding negative currency effects, all bottom line results increased mid-single digits versus previous year. Let me continue with the discussion of the EBITDA development. EBITDA in Swiss francs decreased by minus 1% to CHF 514 million in the first half of the year. Excluding negative currency effects, EBITDA increased by 2%. The EBITDA margin reached 30.9%, decreasing by 70 basis points, which can almost entirely be attributed to the already mentioned onetime operating expenses of EUR 12 million related to the closure of the ceramic plant in Wesel. Excluding this onetime effect, the EBITDA margin in Swiss francs would have reached 31.5%, only 10 basis points below previous year's level. The positive effect from the operating leverage on the EBITDA margin was offset mainly by three factors: first, the wage inflation of 4%; second, 21% higher energy prices; and third, investments in several dedicated growth initiatives in emerging markets and additional expenditures for IT and digitalization. EBIT margin reached 26.0% in the first half of the year, a decrease of 110 basis points, also almost entirely driven by the plant closure costs of EUR 17 million. Excluding these onetime charges, the EBIT margin would have reached 27.0%, again, only 10 basis points below previous year's level. Net income reached CHF 339 million, a decline by minus 3%, which resulted in a net income margin of 20.3%. Earnings per share reached CHF 10.28. Excluding currency effects and excluding the site closure costs, EPS would have reached CHF 11.18, an increase of 6% versus previous year. EPS growth also benefited from our share buyback program launched in 2024. CapEx decreased by CHF 8 million or minus 12% to CHF 55 million due to varying project timings. Free cash flow increased double digit by 14% to CHF 247 million due to timing of tax payments and CapEx. Let me now comment on our market outlook for the full year 2025, which does not differ significantly from our outlook given at our Q1 result communication in May this year. In Europe, we still expect a slight decline in new build activity as building permits fell by 2% in 2024 and continued to decline slightly in the first quarter of 2025 by minus 3%. This decline should be offset by a positive renovation segment, which contributes around 60% to Geberit sales as indicated by several indicators, for example, increased real estate transactions. In sum, we continue to expect building construction demand in Europe to stabilize in 2025 overall. Outside Europe, we expect a mixed picture for the building construction industry. Strong demand is forecasted in several markets, for example, in India and the Gulf region. In China, on the other hand, we expect a continuation of the market decline due to the challenging residential sector. The now effective U.S. tariffs are not material for the Geberit Group since the share of our U.S. business is only 3% and most of the products sold in the U.S. are also manufactured in our two plants in the U.S. On the supply side, we expect for Q3 a sideway development of direct material prices compared to Q2. Let me now briefly comment on the Geberit priorities this year. We will continue to have a strong focus on new products. For example, the new Duofix installation element, but also important new products introduced over the last years like FlowFit, Mapress Therm and the shower toilet Alba. Other important initiatives this year are dedicated sales activities outside Europe, for example, in India and increased OpEx in the area of IT and digitalization, for example, for AI initiatives and digital marketing efforts. Let me continue with our full year guidance. Despite the overall stabilizing building construction market, the short-term future is still difficult to predict due to the increased geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties and our general low visibility. Under the assumption of no material changes of this fragile environment, we expect for the full year net sales growth in local currencies of around 4% and an EBITDA margin of around 29%. Net sales in July were above previous year's level and grew in line with the full year top line guidance. Please also note that the full year EBITDA margin guidance of around 29% includes EUR 16 million site closure costs. Thereof EUR 12 million already booked in H1 and another EUR 4 million expected to come in H2. This brings me to the update for the total closure costs for the site in Wesel. At this stage, we expect a total of EUR 25 million for the site closure. This is less than the previously communicated EUR 40 million. The main reasons for the reduced closure costs are lower depreciation caused by higher value of land and buildings and expected transfers of machines to other plants and an updated view on OpEx. The expected total closure cost of EUR 25 million will be fully booked in 2025 and 2026 and consists of EUR 18 million in OpEx and EUR 7 million in depreciation. Let me close our introduction with a short summary. Geberit delivered convincing results in the first half of 2025 with a net sales growth of 4% in an overall stabilizing market environment. Operating margins were on previous year's level, excluding the onetime effect of costs related to the Wesel plant closure. This means that earnings per share, excluding closure costs and negative currency effects, grew by 6%, which we consider as a strong result in this still challenging market environment. For 2025, we continue to expect a stabilizing market demand in Europe and the mixed environment overseas. Geberit is well prepared to continue its outperformance in this environment as already demonstrated several times in the past. Our confidence is based on the fundamental need for our products, our resilient strategy and business model and our long-term focus and track record. Thank you for your attention. We are now ready to answer your questions.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Ghosh, Pujarini from Bernstein.

So first question on pricing. So in April, you had already started the pricing increase. But when we look at your results today and see the almost negligible pricing impact in H1 as well as Q2. for H1, we can understand it's because of the negative impact of customer bonuses and the price adjustments that you've done in Switzerland. But why is it still zero in Q2? Did you have to further cut some prices in Switzerland? And following from that on the price/cost side. So pricing was flat and raw materials have been slightly down. leading to the net positive pricing impact. But then when we look at wage and energy inflation, could you talk about the levels of wage and energy inflation in Q2? And would that then imply negative overall price cost for Q2?

I start with the question around pricing in Q2, and Tobias will answer then the questions around wage inflation and energy cost in Q2. The sales price effect in Q2 was still around 0%, although we increased prices by 1% technically per April. The reason why it was still only around 0% and not yet stronger positive were two. One is, as you mentioned correctly, the selective price adjustments in Switzerland due to currency. And secondly, the fact that in April and even into May, the deliveries were still made on all price levels. So order intake still until end of March, but the deliveries were still into May on the lower price level. That's the reason why if you round numbers, price effect in the second quarter was still around zero. And wage inflation and energy will be answered by Tobias.

Wage inflation in Q2 was at 5.8%. That will be the highest level in the entire year. That is also due to certain onetime effects that are also booked in Germany with salary increases. Energy inflation in Q2 has only been slightly up a couple of percentage points. So that is not really material. However, these two points do not flow into the net price increases. These would be reflected under other costs. So that is not an impact on the 0.4% on the margin bridge.

The next question comes from Martin Flueckiger from Kepler Cheuvreux.

I've got two, and I'll step back in line afterwards. Firstly, if I understood your press release correctly, the second quarter after the announced price increase as of April 1 saw some wholesaler inventory rebalancing. Can you talk a little bit about your impression you got from your discussions with wholesalers, what their inventory management behavior is going to look like in Q3 and Q4? Any indications here would be helpful. That's my first question. And then the second one is on the trading update for July, if you're willing to talk about that. If you could provide us with an indication as you have done over the last two quarterly results in terms of like-for-like sales growth in July, that would be helpful.

First question, indication about inventory behavior of wholesalers in the second half of the year. We don't have good insights what wholesalers will do in the second half of the year. However, what we got qualitatively as a feedback is that the inventory levels as of end of June were more or less on a normal level. So it was not still inflated by the price increase as of April, but it was also not on a lower level than normal. So at the moment, normal level, no indication what could happen in the second half of the year with the wholesaler levels. Sales in July were up. And also like-for-like, they were in line with our full year guidance -- top line guidance of a growth of 4%. As I said before, that was also like-for-like, so adjusted for working days and currencies.

The next question comes from Christian Arnold from ODDO BHF.

On Switzerland, could you quantify the negative price effect or at least give us a kind of an indication? Are we talking here about 1%, about 5%, about 10%?

That depends on the product categories because it was a selective price adjustment. We did not do a price adjustment across the board because that dependent very much on the currency, that depends on the manufacturing location. So therefore, I can't give you that one number, but I can give you an indication that volumes were around zero in Switzerland in the first half of the year.

Okay. Then on Germany, I know you are not -- usually, you are not talking about quarterly or Q1, Q2 development on a country basis. Nevertheless, Germany is so important and the plus 5.9% were quite impressive. Yes, could you give here some color about Q1, Q2? Were there huge differences? This whole prebuying effect have a material impact? Yes, if you could give us here a little bit more color on that.

Q1 in Germany was better than Q2, also driven by the sales price increases and prebuying and rebalancing thereafter, maybe even a bit more -- a little bit more pronounced than what we have seen on a group level.

Okay. But similar kind of slightly, yes.

A little bit more dynamic than what you see on the group level in Germany.

Okay. Okay. Very good. And my last question would be you have reached focus in '25. If I compare your press release of Q1 and now today, you added one bullet point, and that is this Duofix. So maybe you can elaborate a little bit here why have you added this focus here? Is it already major or materially impacting your development in '25?

Two reasons. First of all, as you know, Duofix is one of the most important products which we have. It's in terms of share of sales, so it's a high importance. And secondly, also the internal activities are very much focused at the moment on the introduction of the new Duofix 4. It was not the intention to put that into the media release that you might believe that it had an impact on the top line, maybe if this is your question, it's more about the activities and the importance of the product.

The next question comes from Patrick Rafaisz from UBS.

A follow-up on pricing. I think you explained well the various drivers why the number was zero in Q2. But what should we then anticipate for the rest of the year? Will pricing be below the 1% because of the offsets in Switzerland, maybe 0.5 percentage point? Or do you still think 1% is the right number for the rest of the year? That's the first question. Second question on the outlook. Bathroom Systems clearly stood out. You mentioned the prebuying in -- or the strong faucets business in America and shower toilet. Would you -- in your guidance for 4% local currency growth, does the H2 picture by product category looks similar as well to H1? Or will there be different drivers? And then lastly, third question on this prebuying you mentioned in America. How much of a pull-forward effect do you anticipate here that we need to factor in for the second half?

Question number one about pricing outlook for the full year. So for the full year, obviously, we will not reach a 1% sales price effect due to the fact that we have around about a zero effect in the first half of the year. And also keep in mind that this negative effect from the price adjustment in Switzerland, obviously have also an impact in the second half of the year. The rest -- so the effect that we still have all the deliveries like in April and into May on all price level, obviously, that will not be the case anymore. So that will accelerate in the rest of the sales area that this price effect should become obviously clearly positive. Second question, what are the drivers in the second half of the year for the full year top line guidance of 4%, pretty much the same drivers as what we have seen in the first half of the year. So we also expect on a full year basis that the Bathroom Systems might outperform the other two product areas. Question number three, U.S. prebuying in anticipation of tariff-related price increases. We think that we have already seen in Q2 some of these prebuying effects because although we are manufacturing in the U.S., we also have some material which we buy from outside the U.S., which will be affected locally by tariffs. Therefore, we expect -- or we believe that already in the second quarter, we have seen some pull forward of customers in anticipation of potential tariff-related price increases.

The next question comes from Elodie Rall from JPMorgan.

My first one is on the impact from working capital in Q2. You mentioned less favorable impact in Q2. So I was wondering what your expectation is for the year together with the CapEx timing since you mentioned a bit of phasing and maybe delays. So if you could give us expectations for the year as well on CapEx. And my second is on margins. Usually, H2 margins are seasonally lower than H1, if I'm not mistaken, but you had a lot of one-offs in H1 this year. So I was wondering if you still think the seasonality effect will be seen on margins H2 versus H1 this year? And finally, my last question is on expectations for a European recovery. Are you still expecting in H2. So I was wondering when you see -- when you expect to see a recovery there?

I'll start with the third question about the European outlook and question #1 and 2 will be answered by Tobias. As said in our introduction, we still expect a stabilization of the European market this year. Do we see a recovery towards the end of the year? No, it's just a stabilization. The indicators do not show that we expect on the short term a recovery. What will happen next year? We don't know yet. As usual, we'll provide you with the market outlook then beginning next year with regards to 2026.

Then coming to net working capital and CapEx. On the CapEx, the slight decrease compared to last year in H1 is purely timing related. The full year outlook remains at the CHF 180 million communicated already early in the year and therefore, on a very similar level to last year. So that is pure timing of projects, which last year were more H1 loaded. And this year, we are more H2 loaded, but there are no delays in the projects. When it comes to net working capital, a single quarter is always a bit coincidence, what comes out, especially if you look at the net working capital from our activities. Overall, net working capital and the cash conversion cycle is very stable with us and evolves with the business activities. We have seen in Q -- in H1, overall net working capital from operating activities decreased -- or increased by CHF 5 million, but decreased from other activities. So that is net only CHF 1 million impact from net working capital in H1. And however, in Q2, the net working capital impact was larger with minus CHF 12 million and minus CHF 11 million from other activities. But again, a lot of that is pure timing related in the quarter. So if you look at the half year, which is a more meaningful period, there's basically no impact from net working capital.