Geox S.p.A. (GEO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Geox Group Full Year 2021 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] The call is chaired by Geox' Vice Chairman, Mr. Enrico Moretti Polegato; and the CEO, Mr. Livio Libralesso. Now I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Enrico Moretti Polegato. Please go ahead, sir.

Welcome, everybody. Results for 2021 show a significant improvement over last year. Revenues are up double digit. Margins on sales are improving strongly. Operating costs are further reduced and financial position is improving. These are the first important results of the initiatives undertaken with the new strategic plan to make our business model more efficient, flexible and in line with the market trends. Over the last 2 years, Geox has completed a major overhaul of its distribution factor exiting unprofitable and unstrategic activities and accelerating investments with higher added value. The start of 2022 is further consolidating this positive signals. As of today, Direct shop sales are up 44% over 2020 and are brought in line with 2019. Good news also came from the multi-brand channel. Order intake for the spring summer season showed orders up 25% while order intake for the autumn winter season is showing equally positive signs and is now close to 2019 levels. The global operating cost tax is still complex, but progressing and continuous improvement on the results confirms that the strategic path undertaken is arriving. Let me hand over to our CEO, Mr. Livio Libralesso. Thank you.

[Foreign Language] So good morning, and good afternoon. Thank you for joining us today to discuss the full year '21 financial results, the current trading and some trends for 2022. Let's start with Slide 3 with the highlights. So net sales are at EUR 609 million, up 14%, driven by a strong fourth quarter. That is up 38%, driven by wholesale growth and U.S. like-for-like growth delivering both a 50% increase in Q4. Gross margin grew at 46.7% on sales, plus 330 basis points versus full year '20, slightly better than our previous guidance. EBIT is a loss of EUR 45 million, delivering in any case, strong improvement from EUR 124 million in full year '20. Net financial debt adjusted before lease liabilities landed at EUR 64 million. It was EUR 99.8 million in December last year. Net working capital is under control at EUR 112 million or 18.5% of total sales, well below full year '20 when it was at EUR 178 million or 33% on total sales. Current trading and the Q1 '22 update. Like-for-like year-to-date week 7 is plus 44% versus 2021, also thanks to an easy comparison base. However, it is just minus 3.5% versus 2019. And with relevant improvement in markdowns 600 basis point, both -- of a reduction, both of versus 2021 and versus 2019. So we are -- keep maintaining the positive trend in markdown reduction. In wholesale, the initial order intake for spring summer '22 has been strong with a growth of 25% and Fall/Winter '22 initial order intake is performing at the same pace as already hit the budget and now it is targeting the same level of the Fall/Winter '19. On the negative side, we assume that supply chain issues will impact also Q1 '22. We are working to mitigate the delays in receivings and we expect that the situation will gradually improve throughout the year. Please go to Chart #4 to comment the store network rationalization. The number of monobrand stores at the end of December is 768 compared with 867 last year and 974 in 2019. So we did 99 net closure in the last 12 months with a net impact on sales of EUR 17 million versus full year '21. And 200 net closures in the last 24 months with a net impact on sales of EUR 71 million versus full year '19. You will find the details by region in Annex 2 at the end of the presentation. The amount of restructuring phase has been substantially completed in the last 2 years. And in 2022, we will have approx 13 net closure, out of which 46 DOS and 8 franchising that will be balanced by 24 net openings made by our partner under license and distribution agreement. Please go to Chart #5. In this chart, you can easily find all the detail regarding like-for-like by quarter with more details in Annex 3. This in order to better understand the impact of an easy comparison base on 2022 actual like-for-like that will be really positive in Q1 and Q2. Dark blue boxes contain the average percentage of closure for lockdown by quarter in 2020 and 2021. As you can see, this year, there is a comparison between a fully opened network versus a partially closed network by 34% in Q1 and by 20% in Q2. And in fact, like-for-like year-to-date week 7 is up 44% in 2021. And as I said, just 3.5 versus 2019. In full year '21, the U.S. network has been closed on average 14% versus 23% over full year '20. And like-for-like, as you may remember, has been 33 -- 23% up. Please go to Chart #6 for a quick overview on top line. Net sales are at EUR 609 million, delivering an increase of 13.8% or EUR 74 million due to the balance of a negative perimeter effect of EUR 18 million and a positive growth of EUR 92 million. Brick-and-mortar channels hit EUR 429 million with an increase of EUR 31 million or 8%. Digital channels, both direct and wholesale reached EUR 180 million with an increase of EUR 43 million or 31% on -- and today, digital sales represent 30% on total turnover. Please go to Page 7 to comment the full year top line by channel. All channels are positive. Wholesale is up 18%. And this positive result is very important. Wholesale gained traction during the year with a solid ramp-up trend. As you may remember, Spring/Summer '21, initial order intake was really negative, minus 30%. And due to the impact of the COVID situation during the selling campaign in the second half of 2020. Then we recorded an improvement in Fall/Winter '21 initial order backlog with an increase of just 5%. So the ramp-up in the performance to deliver the full year 18% growth has been due to really strong in-season management supporting the -- by the advertising campaign. The key drivers have been a good trend in reorders, both in Spring/Summer '21 and Fall/Winter '21 due also to a certain shortage of products in the market. Geox did better than the competitors in delivering goods to the market. And a second factor is an increase in sales of aged inventory according to the cash generation targets; and third, a material reduction in commercial condition, especially returns. Moving to franchising. We see that this channel is in line with last year. The mid-double-digit positive like-for-like has been able to fully compensate the decrease in the perimeter, EUR 7 million or minus 15%. Geox channels delivered a growth of 11% as a combination of a direct online growth of 18% and the positive brick-and-mortar DOS like-for-like of 16% that compensated the perimeter effect is actually in line with the strategy. On Page 8, there is a very quick overview to net sales by region. All regions are positive. The focus on the core strategy based on increasing the marketing spending in core markets and regaining focus on wholesale is delivering results. In our best market, Italy, we see that Italy grew 23%, driven by a healthy performance in wholesale, up 47% and U.S. up 19%, thanks to a strong like-for-like plus 32% that compensated the negative perimeter effect both of DOS and franchising stores. So Geox is back in Italy for sure. Europe is positive 11%. Some countries in Europe like Germany, Austria, U.K. and the Netherlands, have been more impacted than Italy by the lockdowns in the first half of the year. However, wholesale is up 19% and the U.S. like-for-like is positive 14%, with France, Germany and Spain, up high double digit. North America is finally up 8.3%, thanks to a good second half that is up 31%. After the [ heavier ] reorganization implemented with the closure of 17 DOS out of 37 at the end of 2019 with the exit from brick-and-mortar retail in the U.S. Now the group is focused on the business online and on the partnership with wholesale key account, both brick-and-mortar and digital. Rest of the world is a positive double digit, 11% as a combination of 2 performances different by geography. Asia Pacific is down 8.5% due to the fact that we liquidated the Japanese subsidiary moving the business to new distributors, and we closed at the beginning of 2021, the contract with the wholesale Mainland China sold distributors. However, like-for-like in China is positive 11% in our network and the new strategy to have different distributors by provinces is gaining traction under the drive of the new General Manager. On the other side, Eastern Europe continues to outperform, delivering plus 18%, driven by Russia, up 23% to 2020, and up 3% on 2019. Like-for-like in Russia has been plus 41% versus 2020 and plus 21% versus 2019. On Page 9, you can find the net sales by product. Just to say that the ready-to-wear has been more impacted by the pandemic with the ready-to-wear specialists really prudent in buying new products. On the other side, performances of footwear has been fostered by Spherica, by Nintendo Super Mario, by a strong back-to-school campaign and by Amphibiox performances. And these products have been really well supported by the advertising campaigns launched in spring and summer and in fall. On Page 10, there is the income statement. As already commented, the sales at EUR 609 million. Gross margin is EUR 284 million or 46.7% on sale with an increase of 330 basis points, slightly better than expected due to a really good Q4 '21. This is the combination of 319 basis points due to the material reduction in markdowns and no needs of an additional inventory write-down and minus 60 basis points, totally due to the different channel mix with a lower weight of U.S. revenues. However, also this channel -- in this channel, the impact has been mitigated by the lower average markdown. The total operating costs are EUR 330 million, down an additional 4% on 2020 or EUR 12 million and down 12% in 2019 or EUR 46 million, excluding any extraordinary support received due to COVID-19. In particular, G&A are at EUR 263 million, down 5% or EUR 15 million in 2020. This amount is net of EUR 26 million of extraordinary contribution obtained in 2021 versus the same amount in 2020. I mean social safety nets, governmental support and rent reduction. A&P was EUR 29 million, close to 5% on sales versus EUR 23 million or 4% on sales in 2020, according to our strategy to increase the marketing spending. EBIT is a loss of EUR 45 million with no special item recorded this year. There is an EUR 80 million of recovery in comparison with last year, more than EUR 74 million increase in sales, thanks to the sales expansion, the gross margin recovery and the harder reorganization completed in 2021. Loss before taxes is EUR 53 million. And in order to get the net loss of EUR 62 million, there are 2 items to be explained. The first one is our taxes, EUR 6.4 million that do not represent a monetary outflow. They are related to a negative reversal of the deferred tax asset originated last year from timing differences on fund provision. And in addition, according to ESMA recommendation in COVID situation, the group prudentially did not recorded any deferred tax asset related to fiscal losses to be carried forward. I mean that the group did not record an asset of EUR 20 million this year and EUR 25 million last year. In other words, it means that the group will not pay taxes in the next EUR 150 million of pretax results because we have not recorded any tax assets on these losses. The second topic is EUR 2.5 million related to the full year '21 loss of the discontinued operation in Serbia. Please go now to Chart 11 for the balance sheet. It remain safe. The invested capital is decreasing in line with the strict control over working capital and the decrease in fixed assets, mainly right of use regarding stores. Net equity at EUR 125 million, down from EUR 167 million in full year '20 due to the net loss of the year mitigated by the positive reserve recorded regarding the hedge valuation of derivatives, EUR 18 million at the end of December. Please go to Chart 12 to comment on net working capital and net financial position evolution. Net operating working capital landed at EUR 112 million recording 18.5% on sale, the lowest rate in recent years, delivering a reduction of EUR 65 million versus December 2020, mainly thanks to good performance in inventories, down EUR 28 million and credit management with a receivable down EUR 19 million as well. Inventories are under control, thanks also to the action taken on a careful buying for Fall/Winter '20 and spring/summer '21 with an overall reduction of EUR 120 million new purchases compared with the previous correspondent season. So we did increase in sales this year using the inventory both last year. In addition, the progressive reopenings of the U.S. and [ outlet ] delivered in Q3 and Q4, a cash generation so that debt decreased from the seasonal peak in April at EUR 125 million to EUR 83 million at the end of December with a cash generation of EUR 42 million in 8 months. So net bank debts is EUR 83 million and considering the positive value of our hedging instruments, EUR 18 million. The net financial position before lease liabilities landed to EUR 64 million. Please go to Chart 13 to comment cash flow statement in order to better understand the main driver for the cash evolution of the group, you can look at the blue box on the right restated before IFRS 16, you can see that the strong control over working capital and other current assets delivered a positive cash flow of EUR 74 million and the disposal of the Serbian plant generated additional 6.5 million for a total of EUR 80 million of cash generation that covered the monetary loss amounting to EUR 54 million and CapEx amounting to EUR 19 million so that full year '21 delivered free cash flow in the region of EUR 80 million that reduced the bank debt to EUR 83 million and then EUR 80 million of positive value of hedging activities, landed the net financial position to EUR 64 million before lease liability. We are now going to comment the outlook. Just a second. So the positive start and the business news flows regarding 2022 are in line with our business plan targets that was full year '22 sales over EUR 700 million and to be able to deliver a gross margin improvement in the region of 150 basis points versus full year '21. Like-for-like year-to-date is positive, plus 44% still with a relevant improvement in markdowns, 600 basis points. Wholesale is delivering good results. Spring/Summer '22 order intake was up 25% with a low to mid-single-digit increase in selling prices even better indication from fall winter '22 order intake, today, we hit the budget with a 25% increase, but there is still 3 weeks to selling -- of the selling campaign to go. And now we are targeting to reach the same level of Fall/Winter '19 with a high single-digit increase in selling prices. And this order intake confirm the gross margin growth in line with expectation. This guidance was based on the following assumptions, no more lockdown in 2022 on the fact that the issue on supply chain that are also impacting Q1 '22, I mean delays in receiving and deliveries, higher freight costs, higher compensatory commercial conditions will gradually improve and [indiscernible] throughout the year stabilization of the input cost pressure and also a diplomatic solution to be found to the Ukraine crisis. Unfortunately, this morning news and today's development in Ukraine crisis, now it is not predictable to quantify in a proper way any eventual impact on our business, on the inflation and on energy prices. And consequently, the volatility and the uncertainty of these forward-looking statements are really increased. However, the business -- the pillars of the business plan, as I said, are completely in line with our expectation. In full year '21, Geox generated revenues in Russia for EUR 51 million and in Ukraine for EUR 5 million. So we are now ready to open the Q&A session and to take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Francesco Brilli with Intermonte.

Congratulations for the results achieved in 2021. Couple of questions from my side. The first one is on if you can provide some additional color on these impacts of supply chain in first quarter compared to the like-for-like performance that you are seeing to date, what we should expect for the first quarter and the impact in terms of growth. And then the second one is on net working capital, which reached a very, very low level. And what we should expect going forward for next year if it's sustainable to this level or it will revert to more normalized level and more similar to the last years. And then the third one is on Russia. If you have a contingency plan that you can implement in case of embargoes or something like that, if you can reach stores in Russia from Asia directly from the producer and manufacturer of your products or just the channel from Europe or anything else, if you can add something.

So supply chain, for sure, there is an impact in Q1. But as I said, we have considered this impact in the guidance, I mean, EUR 700 million and 150 basis points of gross margin improvement. So this means that, as you have seen, there is really a good performance of Fall/Winter '21 product in January and in February that we are discounting less. In fact, we are delivering in any case, a 600 basis point of reduction in markdown notwithstanding the fact that we are suffering a little bit late receivings regarding Spring/Summer '22. However, let's say that within March -- within the first week of March, we will be able to really have the product in a proper volume. And for sure, starting from 15th of March with the new advertising campaign, there are -- there will be a lot of product in the stores and especially we are not suffering any delays in Spherica that is forecasted to be, again, the champion in Spring/Summer '22 sales. So let's say that delays on receiving -- wasting the better performances of Fall/Winter '21 unexpected performance that we are experiencing in January and in February. Working capital, you are right, it is not sustainable, 18% on sales. It is due to the fact that we have been really prudent in the wholesale portfolio. We have been able to really cash a lot of receivable from our customers. And as said, we reduced the buying regarding the last 2 seasons. I mean, Fall/Winter '20 and Spring/Summer '21. Now it's time to start again to buy product because we have ambitious targets regarding top line in 2022. We are going to buy more. However, what we are buying is -- the increase in buying is totally due to wholesale and consequently, totally due to orders that we have in our end, so that is the plus 25% that both season are delivering today. Retail will grow absolutely like-for-like will be positive. However, we will, let's say, optimize the buying in retail using a part of the collection that we did not sold in 2021 due to the lockdown that we experienced in Spring/Summer '21. So in my opinion, we will be able to maintain working capital under control also in 2022. However, given the fact that we assume to deliver a positive EBITDA that will finance CapEx and maybe the normal working capital level, let's say that we do not expect a reduction in the net bank debt in 2022. So today, I would say, in the region of EUR 80 million. Then, for sure, we have really a good value in our hedging strategies. We have hedged U.S. dollar at a really interesting level until mid-June next year in order to secure the business plan gross margin. Consequently, for sure, also in 2022, hedging will deliver positive results to reduce the net financial position. What about Russia? Yes, this is really bad surprise, this morning, Russian troops entered the territory of Ukraine for a peacekeeping operation. The problem is that they started to bomb the Ukraine territory just linked to the military objective, but this is really a tough situation. As a matter of fact, the South of Russia is a no-fly zone today, also for internal flights. Stores are closed from Sochi to the borders of Ukraine and also where the marketplace are closed in the South of Russia. On the other side, Moscow and St. Pete, where we have our direct operated stores are fully open. And the feeling of our colleagues in Russia are that this week will be tough until the second of March. And then at the second of March, there will be a sort of checkpoint by the government in order to decide after having seen what about the sanction and other restrictions that the international community will impose on Russia. They will decide how to go higher. For the time being, we have anticipated at our best all deliveries to Russia because the corridor, Poland, [ Byelorussia ] and Russia that is the normal flows of goods from Europe to Russia is still open. So we are delivering goods. We have delivered until today, 50% of goods in Ukraine and 40% of goods in Russia regarding Spring/Summer '22. We are pushing as much as we can. And as you mentioned, we are also -- studied how to deliver directly the goods from our supplier in Far East directly to Moscow. We have been able to do this regarding [indiscernible]. Now our logistics department is also investigating how to improve deliveries and to faster deliveries to Moscow without entering Italy and then going to Russia. So let's see. The other important thing is that we will not be impacted by ruble depreciation because we have covered all our receivable until today and also 80% of the next Spring/Summer '22 season at an exchange rate that is absolutely in line with our standard margin. So unfortunately, we have to wait for the level of sanction. My opinion is that SWIFT will not be blocked. And this could be really important in case of a stop in SWIFT messaging between banks because this will immediately stop any possibility of a financial transaction with Russia. But until today, it seems that this sanction will not be applied.

The next question is from Oriana Cardani, Intesa Sanpaolo.

Yes. I've got 2 questions. The first one is on Russia again. What is the EBITDA margin of this area? Is it in line with the one of the group? And how much were the budgeted investments in this area? And the second question is on the Fall/Winter collection. How was the first reaction to the offer of the leather goods item for this collection.

Okay. You know that Russia is, for us -- has been, for us, really a successful project. I mean, successful because in Russia, we have a premium position. And consequently -- and stores are doing, have done and are doing really well since 2019. So I prefer to talk about EBIT and not EBITDA. It is good. So out of the EUR 50 million sales in 2021, let's say, that the EBIT is in the region of 25%. Leather Goods. As of today, we did some trials in our -- in some stores in our network. The results are really encouraging, but we just started. The first, let's say, season selling campaign regarding leather goods is Fall/Winter '22. And they are going -- the selling campaign is going according to our expectation. But it is still the first trial. And consequently, the amount is not material, leather goods accessories should develop their potential starting from Spring/Summer '23 and then Fall/Winter '23.

Mr. Moretti Polegato, there are no more questions registered at this time.

Okay. So thank you for your time. We are ready to take any additional questions by mail or by phone in case you may need. So feel free to contact Simone Maggi or myself for any doubt or clarification. Thank you very much for your time. Keep in touch and see you tomorrow in Milan for the fashion week in order to visit also our location. Thank you very much. Bye.