Geox S.p.A. (GEO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Geox First Half 2022 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] The call will be hosted by Geox Group's Vice Chairman, Mr. Enrico Moretti Polegato; and CEO, Mr. Livio Libralesso. Now I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Enrico Moretti Polegato. Please go ahead, sir.

Welcome, everybody. Results for the first half of 2022 will show a significant improvement over the first half of 2021. Revenues are up 30% with double-digit increases across all distribution channels and major geographies. The second quarter was the best in Geox's history in terms of sales. We are acquiring new customers, and the brand is becoming increasingly relevant to consumers, especially in our core countries. These are the first important results of Phase 2 of our strategic plan, the growth phase. The Phase 1 of the plan in 2021 and '22, we carried out a through review of our business model, closing all unprofitable activities. These actions have enabled us to save costs by 50% as compared to 2019 and to free up additional resources to invest in relaunching the brand. We have, therefore, launched a new marketing project with a return to television advertising campaigns, made further investments in digital and pushed further product innovation. All these were remaining true to our historical values, [indiscernible]. The first half of 2022 tells us that the strategy undertaken is the right one. July's performance is also confirming this trend. Direct shop sales are up on both 2021 and 2019 and the first orders in the multi-brand channel for the spring-summer '23 season are very important. Despite an extremely complex scenario, 2022, we see significant growth in revenues and in the economic indicators, in line with the plan. We are extremely confident that once this extraordinary situation is overcome, the fruits of our efforts would be even more tangible. Now let me hand over the conference to the CEO, Livio Libralesso. Thank you very much.

Thank you, Enrico. So good morning, and good afternoon. Thank you all for joining us today to discuss first half results, current trading trends for full year '22. Let's start with Slide #3 with the executive summary. As Enrico said, the second phase of our business plan, bigger and better, is bringing the expected result. It is aimed at relaunching the brand through a new strategic marketing project and an omnichannel business model based on the customers and distribution-centric approach. Net sales were at EUR 341 million, up 29% on June '21, supported by an easy comparison base and boosted by our investment in products and the brand rebranding. Geox delivered a record second quarter. It was up 35% on second quarter '21 and 13% in second quarter '19 and represents the best second quarter since ever. Gross margin was 47.3% with a decrease of 60 basis points, primarily driven by higher per-unit freight costs, partially offset by average selling price increases and a reduction in discount. Net working capital is under strict control at EUR 94 million, well below first half '21 that was at EUR 169 million. The adjusted net financial position before IFRS 16 lease liabilities was minus EUR 31 million. In December last year, it was minus EUR 64 million. And in June '21, it was minus EUR 108 million. Current trading is positive. Like-for-like year-to-date week 29 is up 35% on 2021 and just minus 1.7% on 2019, delivering also a relevant improvement in markdowns. July to date is up 8% versus July '21 and up 3% on July '19. In this flow also on wholesale, the spring-summer '23 sales campaign started last month, and the first evidence is really very positive, in line with our expectations. On the other side, pressure on supply chain continues to be strong due to the international geopolitical situation to the cost inflation and to COVID-19 impacts. However, we expect an improvement in next month, especially in shipping lead times. Please go to Chart #4 in order to comment the brand health improvement that in our view is the most important pillar of this strong rebound. According to Ipsos, there are 2 important trends in place regarding Geox. First, Geox is recognized as the first global brand for lifestyle shoes in our core markets and marks constant and improving presence in top-of-mind surveys. Second, there is a great positive step-up in consideration across all core countries and also an increase in awareness in France and in Spain. Fortunately, this is exactly what we planned during the first phase of the business plan with the payoff focus on the core -- I mean focus on core market and become a big spender in these markets. Please go to Page 5 to comment another pillar of the business plan, aiming to optimize brick-and-mortar and to invest in digital to shift turnover to this new channel. During the last 36 months, we closed approximately 240 stores or 25% of the network. Today, the network is composed by 745 stores, out of which 337 are DOS. This optimization will be almost completed within year-end with additional 20 DOS net closure. Please go to Chart #6 to elaborate a little bit on the easy comparison base on actual like-for-like. Dark blue boxes contain the average percentage of closure for lockdown by quarter experienced in 2020 and 2021. Q1 and Q2 this year have been substantially open. While last year, the network was closed on average, respectively, 34% and 20%. However, you can see that like-for-like by quarter this year is very solid and delivered a plus 54% in Q1 and plus 32% in Q2, well higher than the percentage of closure. This means that all the retail KPIs are improving substantially, recovering the gap still present on traffic that year-to-date is still lower 30% than 2019. And in conversion, average selling price and the units per ticket joined with a material reduction in discount. Please go to Page 7 to comment H1 top line split between brick-and-mortar and digital. The growth of 29% is driven by brick-and-mortar while digital including e-tailers is up just high single digit. This trend in digital is absolutely aligned with market trends and reflects the stabilization of volumes after 2 years of overperformance due to the severe lockdown in brick-and-mortar. Please go to Page 8 to comment top line split by channel. All channels were positive. Wholesale was up 19%, driven by the positive spring-summer '22 initial order intake, and we have been able to deliver also good decision, management regarding reorders. The franchising channel was really positive, plus 62% after the total reopening of the network, a good level of reorders in season and some positive time effects on the Geox. The U.S. channel delivered a strong positive growth, up 37% as a combination of a sound brick-and-mortar trend like-for-like plus 59%, partially offset by a negative perimeter effect and the mid- to high single-digit negative online performance of our dotcom. On Page 9, there is a very quick overview to net sales by region. All regions were positive. Italy, our core market is delivering really good growth, 44%, supported by a strong like-for-like in retail, U.S. up 56% and franchising 81%. And as wholesale is running at plus 20%. Europe grew 30% based on the same drivers. Wholesale was growing 20% like in Italy. While the retail in German speaking countries is running a little bit slower because they have been still more impacted by weak traffic due to a worse pandemic evolution. North America was up 30%, driven by a positive dotcom. Rest of the world was a positive 13% in total, and it is a combination of 2 performances, different by geography. Asia Pacific was down 24%, and this is due to the business restructuring in Japan, where we liquidated the subsidiary, moving the business to a new distributor and to the strict lockdown in Shanghai, Greater area from March to June, close to 80 days of total lockdown. On the other side, Eastern Europe countries continued to be positive double digit. On Page 10, the details of net sales by product. Just to say that ready-to-wear was experiencing a good season, both in terms of selling and in terms of sellout. It grew 74%, while footwear grew 26%. Please go to Page 11 for the profit and loss. Sales were at EUR 341 million, as already commented, with an increase of EUR 77 million. Gross margin was EUR 161 million or 47.3% on sales with a decrease of 60 basis points. This is the net result of the negative impact coming from a greater recourse toward freight in order to recover the delay due to the lockdown in Vietnam and China, minus 230 basis points, mitigated by an improvement of 170 basis points due to the positive trend of retail full price experienced in May and in June, jointly with a reduction in markdowns. The total operating costs were EUR 172 million or 50% of sales versus 59% in the first half of '21. It's important to elaborate a little bit on the positive support we received. This year, we received EUR 2.6 million of extraordinary contribution versus EUR 17 million received in H1, I mean social safety nets, government support and the rent reduction. Advertising promotion was EUR 15 million or 4.5% of sales versus EUR 12 million in 2021. This increase is in line with our strategy to increase the marketing spending. EBIT is negative at minus EUR 11 million versus minus EUR 29 million at June last year, and the net loss is EUR 19 million. EBITDA is EUR 25.5 million or 7.5 percentage on sales. And EBITDA before IFRS 16 is at breakeven. So this is the first important step we have been able to achieve. And then for year-end, we must try to improve also the EBIT. In addition, according to ESMA recommendation in COVID-19 situation, the group prudentially did not record any deferred tax assets related to fiscal losses to be carried forward. I mean an asset of EUR 7.4 million in H1, EUR 20 million regarding full year '21 and EUR 25 million in full year '20. In other words, it means that the group will not pay taxes for the next EUR 170 million of pretax or positive pretax results. On Page 12, there is a brief picture of the outcome of the restructuring process accomplished during the first part of the business plan in 2020 and 2021. Total operating costs, excluding A&P and all the positive support received related to COVID and described in the footnote have been reduced by 15%, approximately EUR 28 million in 6 months, that is EUR 60 million on an annual basis. Please go to Chart #13 to comment the balance sheet. The invested capital is decreasing, in line with the strict control over working capital and the decrease in fixed assets, mainly the right of use regarding stores. Net equity were -- was at EUR 127 million, and it was in line with December last year, thanks to the increase of the positive reserve regarding the hedging instruments that offset the loss of the period. Please go to Chart 14 to comment on working capital and net financial position. The net operating working capital landed at an impressive EUR 94 million, the lowest amount in recent years, mainly thanks to good performance in inventories, down EUR 31 million in comparison in June last year and the credit management with receivable down EUR 2 million, notwithstanding the huge increase in turnover. Also payables are generating cash, given the fact that they are related to fresh inventory with payments still not due. Net working capital on last 12-month sales is 13.8%, the lowest level since ever. It reflects the fact that we have been able to get rid with aged inventory. However, now we must buy more in order to fuel the increasing sales in 2022 according to our plan. So at year-end, this percentage is assumed to slightly increase. Bank debt at the end of June is EUR 83 million, roughly in line with December '21. The fair value of our hedging instruments is really positive, amounting to EUR 52 million, consequently, adjusted net financial position before IFRS 16 for lease liabilities was additionally down at minus EUR 31 million versus minus EUR 180 million in June last year. Please go now to Page 15 for the cash flow statement. We can look directly at the blue box on the right, restated before IFRS 16. You can see that the strong control of working capital and other current assets delivered a positive cash flow of EUR 38 million that fully covered the monetary loss and also the EUR 11 million of capital expenditure. So that at the end, it has been resulting in a neutral free cash flow. Then the [ EUR 30 million ] of positive variable hedge drove the net financial position to minus EUR 31 million before IFRS 16 liabilities. Please go now to Page 16 for the outlook, a little bit better than what we assumed in May. Provide that the volatility and uncertainty are still high due to the recent evolution of the international turmoil and of the pandemic, in any case, we have to consider the current positive drivers of our business. Just to summarize, I mean the like-for-like year-to-date, that is positive 35% versus 2021. Also delivering a relevant improvement in markdowns, 350 basis points versus 2021 and 800 basis points versus 2019. Our strategy is really to reduce promotion during the season. In wholesale, we assume a yearly growth of 15%. Driving this change really closer to full year '19 level. This assumption is based on the strong initial order backlog of full winter '22. And in addition, we assume to be able to deliver the same level of reorders as in the second half of 2021. There is a negative side, supply chain, the issues like port congestion, increased time and a greater recourse to our sales are still impacting our industry. The overall impact of these factors can be estimated for Geox in EUR 10 million of lower revenues and EUR 8 million in terms of lower gross margin, EUR 5 million linked to lower revenues and EUR 3 million linked to the increase in high freight to protect wholesale deliveries. In any case, this impact is half of the impact recorded in H1, where we have been able, in any case, to deliver results in line on our budget and our business plan. On the basis of this assumption, we maintain the guidance in terms of top line with a double-digit growth in annual revenues to overcome EUR 700 million. This figure would remain achievable maybe a little bit challenging, even in the event that the diplomatic solution to the Russian-Ukraine crisis is not found soon with a possible consequent impact on the business in those areas in the second half. In terms of our gross margin, we expect to recover in the second half the gap of 60 basis point reported in the first half. This assumption is based on the continuation of a careful management of markdown in the U.S., a progressive improvement of the condition in the supply chain that we are experiencing and an easier comparison base due to the hard lockdown occurred in Vietnam in the second half of '21, that had, as you may remember, a strong impact on our financial statements. All these lead to estimate the level of gross margin in percentage, slightly better than 2021 level at the year-end. In addition, we are really continuing to implement and reinforce all the necessary action in order to mitigate the impact with a tight cost control of the above mentioned weaker-than-expected growth in gross margin due to the ongoing geopolitical supply chain and energy issue. We are now ready to open the Q&A session and take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Oriana Cardani with Intesa Sanpaolo.

Yes. I've got a couple of questions. The first is on pricing policy. Can you remind us the actions done in pricing this year for the spring-summer for winter collection? And what are you doing for the spring-summer '23 collection? And the second question is on profitability. So can you provide us a target of EBIT margin for the second part of the year?

Thank you, Oriana. So pricing policy, we have been prudent in spring-summer '22 because we are not so, let's say, sure that the final customers would have probably seen products with a strong increase in prices. So we increased 4%. After the good order campaign of a spring-summer '22, we have been a little bit more courageous. So we increased 8% in full winter '22. And in any case, the order intake has been really positive, plus 26%. So we did a really strong merchandising analysis regarding the architecture of the collection. And we need, let's say, created a collection with an additional increase of 9% in spring-summer '23, not for the same product. Let's say that we have also changed the product in order to deliver also better quality. And it seems that also spring-summer '23 is well accepted by our wholesale partners and the results as of today are in line with our targets for Spring-Summer '23. And more or less, we have anticipated the order collection of 5 weeks. And consequently, today, we have an hour in the region of 70%, 75% of the total target. So it seems solid. It seems solid. And this will help us to manage the pressure on costs that we have assumed will remain at least at the same level of this year. And so eventually, any improvement in '23 will drive to, let's say, an easy work in terms of margin. The second question is related to EBITDA. In November last year, our guidance was to be able to be at a breakeven in terms of EBIT. And consequently, our dream is to be able to be at breakeven, and we are really working on this -- in this direction. The consensus is minus EUR 3 million, EUR 3 million negative in terms of EBIT. Let's say that it is challenging, but we are working on it. As a matter of fact, the record second quarter we have been able to deliver the best quarter since ever make the team really proud and consequently, there is a little bit of enthusiasm. So it is challenging, but we are working in this direction.

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from Francesco Brilli with Intermonte.

Congratulations to the results. Just a couple of questions from my side. The first one is on the wholesale, the target in the wholesale for 15% growth in the full year. I mean if I'm not wrong, if I made the rough calculations, I see some slowdown in the second part of the year for the wholesale slightly. Is there some motivation for that? Are you -- or perhaps there's some upside potential there to be achieved in this channel? And the second one is if you can share with us some more color on the net financial position that you are expecting for the full year given the results achieved so far.

Okay. Wholesale, so the 15% is the combination between, let's say, the initial order intake that is really strong, 26%, and the fact that we assume to deliver the same level of reorders as in the second half last year, so 0 growth in terms of reorders because last year, we really did record reorders. And this, let's say, the average -- consequently, the average is lower than the 26% regarding the initial order. In addition, we included in our forecast a prudent approach regarding Russia. As a matter of fact, in the Ukraine. As a matter of fact, first half has not been impacted by the gen-political crisis, and we have been able to deliver 100% of our initial order backlog. As of today, we assume that maybe some difficulties may arise. In case this will not happen, there is no sign today regarding difficulties. Maybe there is also room for upside. And then we will see what about the in-season order management. We are, let's say, implementing more and more tools, also digital tools in order to be able to improve the wholesale in-season management in order to increase the reorders. So for the time being, we are a little bit prudent regarding wholesale, also due to the fact that, as mentioned, we assume 16 million cancellation in the first half and 10 million of cancellation in the second half. As a matter of fact, in the first half, we have been able to recover close to 100% of this cancellation due to really strong reorders and due to the overperformance of our retail network. And so we are working to do the same also in the second part. Net financial position, in my opinion, 13% on last 12 months sales -- those incidence of the working capital is not sustainable. Obviously, a company that delivered EUR 77 million of growth in turnover should have also delivered an increase in this percentage because in order to fuel the sales, you need to buy more. However, we assume that we will be able to manage also in the second part, this positive trend. I mean the increase in purchases due to committed orders of the wholesale. And so we assume the debt at the same level of June in the region of EUR 80 million to EUR 85 million. And given the fact that we have also hedged 100% of spring/summer '22 and most '23 and most of for winter '23, this level of -- at the level of business plan standard exchange rate, in my opinion, at year-end if U.S. dollar is in this region 1.01. Hedging instruments, in any case, will be positive in the region of EUR 30 million. And consequently, also the net financial position will be lower than expected.

[Operator Instructions] There is a follow-up question from Francesco Brilli with Intermonte.

Yes, if there are no other questions, I'll just take this occasion to ask, if I may, some additional color or I mean, some updates on the plan of product rationalization. At which stage you are in this process of -- I mean, of the rationalized new collections and I mean, the new concept that you're aiming at, and you explained that on the business plan?

Let's say that our industry, in my opinion, is really changing the business model. So the old business model, especially on wholesale, there is a really positive formation, wholesale is back. You have seen that now all the big players are focusing on wholesale given, let's say, the weakness of e-commerce in 2022 after the overperformance. And to focus on wholesale is one of our strategic pillars. So we invested in wholesale, and now we are really receiving the fruits of strategic this strategic view. However, wholesale is trying to, let's say, tie to order the product after having seen the results of the sellout. And on the other side, companies like us that have the production, most of the production in fact is citing against the increase of lead times. So this, as a matter of factor, is forcing really the companies to anticipate the order intake to start at least 4 to 6 months in advance in order to be able then to match the level of service and the due date of the deliveries. We have been able to do so for spring-supper '23. In order to do this, it is important to focus really on maybe out-of-stock product and carryover product that become more and more important because you have an history regarding the product, you can, let's say, forecast using as artificial intelligence, what about to order in advance and then to have a second exit in terms of order collection with the news of the connection. And so as you were mentioning, the rationalization of the collection and the -- what we call seasonal animation of the carryover are really an important trend in our industry. And the success of Spherica is an important example. At the beginning, Spherica was just a show based on a knit upper. Now Spherica is a platform, not only sneakers with knit upper, but also sandals, also magazine. And the final customers is really appreciating this platform and consequently, our volumes for Spherica are really increasing. So we included in full winter '22 and spring-summer '23, seasonal animation of Spherica with a new version of Spherica that we call Spherica Active with Spherica vintage series and so on. But in this case, we are investing on products that proved to be really successful. We are still exploiting the big investment in advertising. And consequently, as a matter of fact, the merchandising boost that is one of the pillar of our business plan in terms of rationalization from one side and invest in the hero product and carryover is important also in order to achieve a better marginality. There is still room to do. However, the team is investing in this. And I think that part of this rebound is for sure, due to the investment in research and development of new products.

[Operator Instructions] Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time.

Okay. In case there is no more question, thank you very much for your time. Feel free to contact Simone or myself for any clarification or doubt you may get. Thank you very much, and keep in touch.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephone.