Gibson Energy Inc. - Analyst/Investor Day (GEI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
December 2, 2025
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Beth Pollock
ExecutivesGood morning, and welcome to Gibson Energy's 2025 Investor Day. For those of you who haven't met me, my name is Beth Pollock, and I'm our Vice President of Capital Markets and Corporate Development. It's great to have so many of you in the room, but also online joining us. It's been 6 years since our last Investor Day, and we are very excited to take this opportunity to tell you a little bit about where we're at and where we're headed as a company. In terms of the formal agenda, we plan to start now, obviously, and conclude the formal presentation at 9:30, after which we'll take Q&A. First, Curtis will walk you through some team introductions with everybody here on the stage. Then he'll talk a little bit about strategy, our value proposition and growth opportunities. Subsequently, Riley will walk us through the financial summary and outlook, and then we will open it up for the Q&A session. Two administrative items. The first, please be reminded that today's presentation refers to non-GAAP measures and forward-looking information, which is subject to certain assumptions and adjustments and may not be indicative of actual results. Descriptions and qualifications of such measures and information are set out at the end of this presentation, which is available on our website and our continuous disclosure documents available on SEDAR+. As well, for all those of us who are in the room in the event of emergency, we'll exit through the back and follow the overhead signage. So with that, I will pass it over to Curtis to run through a snapshot of the company and get the intro started. We know that you're going to be as excited about what's to come as we are.
Curtis Philippon
ExecutivesWell, good morning, and welcome to the Gibson Energy Investor Day. It is pretty great, fantastic to see the amount of interest and support there is for the Gibson story. I joined Gibson just over a year ago. And coming in, what got me interested and excited to join the Gibson team and invest in Gibson is I saw a very good company with impressive assets and an opportunity to accelerate the growth around those assets and create a tremendous amount of shareholder value in the process. A year in, and I couldn't be happier with the progress that the team has made, and I couldn't be happier about the opportunity set that I see in front of us today. Now on the screen, you see a number of key numbers and facts about Gibson, our snapshot of the business. And most of these are things that you've seen before, but there are 2 new numbers on there, 2 new targets that we're going to spend a fair bit of time today on. One is an infrastructure growth rate on the far right-hand side of the screen and also on the far right is a total shareholder return target. So we'll spend the majority of today talking about how we will deliver on an over 7% infrastructure growth rate and in doing so, generate over 100% shareholder return over the next 5 years. Now to do that, you need great people. And we've got a lot of great people at Gibson. And maybe I'll just start it off with a bit of a shout out to the fact that we have 500 people in the Gibson team, and they're watching live today or recorded later on today this presentation. And they are an impressive group. It's a very experienced, knowledgeable group of employees that are driving our success. They take a tremendous amount of pride in not just serving our customers well, but being the best in our industry at supporting our customers. They're also owners, and I firmly believe that drives a difference. So over 95% of our employees are owners in Gibson. It drives a different level of care and performance in everything that we do. Now up on the screen, you also see the executive team of Gibson. And I want to start off the day with pausing a bit, getting each one of them to introduce themselves, talk a little bit about how their experience enables them to make an impact in the business and also talk about what gets them excited for the future. So with that, I'll turn it over to our Chief Financial Officer, Riley Hicks.
Riley Hicks
ExecutivesYes. Thank you, Curtis, and good morning, everybody. Thank you all for joining us for our Investor Day. I know I can speak on behalf of the rest of the leaders up here and tell you we're incredibly excited to walk you through the next step in our journey. So I've been at Gibson for just over 7 years now, and I've had the opportunity to work all throughout the organization, holding leadership roles in finance, commercial and marketing. That background has given me just a really deep understanding of our people, our assets and the needs of our customers. As you can imagine, over 7 years here at Gibson, I've had the chance to work on lots of meaningful work. But the piece that I'm probably most proud of is leading the team that executed the Gateway transaction. That deal has been incredibly transformative for Gibson and has reshaped our growth profile moving forward. Prior to joining Gibson, I worked at other midstream companies in public accounting and in equity research, where I covered mid-cap producers. Many of those producers are key customers of Gibson today. Moving forward, I think I'm most excited to work with this great leadership team and all of our talented people across the organization to drive the next phase of our growth and ensure we do it in a disciplined manner. Equally as important as financial discipline is operational excellence. And with that, I'll pass to Dave.
David Gosse
ExecutivesThanks, Riley. Good morning, everybody. I'm Dave Gosse. I'm the SVP and Chief Operating Officer here at Gibson. I'm responsible for the safe operation of our energy infrastructure, liquids infrastructure assets, including our Hardisty terminal, our Edmonton terminal, our facility at Moose Jaw, our terminal in Gateway just outside of Corpus Christi and of course, our Wink terminal. I have over 30 years' experience in the operations and leadership -- operations and engineering leadership space. I've had the opportunity to do a bunch of different things with a number of different companies, various senior roles over that time span with -- including up to or over 10 years with each of Nexen as well as SemCAMS/Energy Transfer Canada, the latter at which I was President for just over 8 years. During my career, I've also led teams that have safely and successfully executed on capital projects, major multimillion dollar infrastructure projects. I bring a very focused approach to our operational excellence at Gibson. We've had some recent successes in that regard, and I'll share a few of those with you right now. Our safety performance. Curtis is going to speak to this a little bit more, but we have had exceptional safety performance this year, industry-leading. Our people, we focused on the organization and optimizing that as well as building the culture. Reliability, we have had 0 unplanned downtime at our facilities, and we continue to optimize the throughput at all of our terminals. OpEx or cost control, we have a relentless focus on OpEx. And for those folks that are in the field listening to this right now, they're all nodding their heads, I can feel it. And as well as execution. We continue to execute on our capital projects. And we've had a very successful year in executing on 2 successful turnarounds at each of our Moose Jaw and our DRU facility. I'm very fortunate to be part of this team and very happy to be here today as we work with the team, both in this room but also outside of this room on building shareholder value. We obviously couldn't execute on our strategy without having an ace commercial team. So with that, I'll turn it over to what's your name? Kelly.
Kelly Holtby
ExecutivesYes. Thanks, Dave. Good morning, everyone. I'm Kelly Holtby, Senior Vice President of Commercial Development for Canada. A little bit about me. So I joined Gibson just over 4 years ago after spending almost 17 years at Suncor in a variety of legal, commercial and strategy roles. Much of my time there was spent developing and negotiating agreements, both in a hands-on and in a leadership capacity for pipeline and storage infrastructure across North America, representing over $10 billion in capital. Through that work, I developed a clear understanding of what drives customer value and built strong relationships across the industry, including with Gibson, where I saw firsthand the strength of its assets and its value proposition. That experience is a big part of what excites me about Gibson today. Our storage assets have exceptional connectivity and are located at hubs that serve as the nexus to the global oil markets. And when you combine that with increasing Canadian production, it positions Gibson very well to see sustained demand for our services and infrastructure. You guys might ask like why am I so confident we'll see that demand? Well, for me, it starts with what I'm focused on, deepening customer relationships and providing excellent customer service, maximizing the utilization of our core infrastructure and developing new growth opportunities. And when we do that, we will see increased demand for our services and infrastructure that will translate into long-term stable cash flows. So exciting time to be at Gibson, very proud to be playing a part in leading the Canadian business. Equally excited about the U.S. business and the synergies with Canada. And so with that, I'll turn it over to Blake.
Blake Hotzel
ExecutivesThank you, Kelly, and good morning, everybody. My name is Blake Hotzel, and I'm the Senior Vice President of Commercial for Gibson's business in the U.S. In my role, I lead the company's commercial development and marketing activities in the U.S., including the development and execution of our strategy to grow the business. I joined Gibson after nearly 20 years in the North American midstream space, helping companies compete and grow. From that, I carry with me the perspective that urgency and creativity and anticipating and serving the needs of the market is the simple formula for success in our business no matter the market environment. I joined Gibson to apply that formula to shape the next chapter of the company's U.S. story. The -- our platform in the U.S. is strong, anchored by a great set of assets and a talented and committed team. I'm really excited about the prospects for deepening and growing our presence in the U.S. by focusing on solutions that matter to our customers, enabling efficiency, optionality, leveraging our integrated capability. As we progress that, our success will be determined by delivering results that matter to you all, our investors, including sustainably growing EBITDA, bolstering our contract base and cash flow quality and capitalizing on growth opportunities to deliver strong returns and align with our strengths and with the needs of the market. I'm really excited about what's ahead for Gibson and the important role that the company's U.S. business will play in that success, and I look forward to getting to meet you all today and discussing the business with you. And with that, I'll hand it to Beth.
Beth Pollock
ExecutivesThanks, Blake. Your comments around growth are a perfect segue because in my role, I'm looking after ensuring that we have access to the financial means to execute on the growth plans. So to introduce myself, as I mentioned earlier, my name is Beth Pollock, and I'm our Vice President of Capital Markets and Corporate Development. I'm ensuring that we have the financial strength, the relationships with investors such as yourselves and the credibility in the markets to deliver on the commitments that my colleagues have spoken about this morning. I first came to know Gibson while I was working in investment banking and covering the company. And I was immediately struck as Kelly was with just the high quality of the assets and the relationships that the company has with the premier producers across North America. As a result, I'm here today. Since joining Gibson, I've held a number of roles of increasing level of responsibility across the finance organization and have led the execution of over $5 billion in transactions. When I look out at the company now, what really stands out to me is the alignment that we have across the organization at all levels. We're really focused on the goals that we have in place and execution of those objectives. It runs from the top all the way through the organization, and you're going to hear a little bit more from some of the employees in a video to come shortly. So with that, I will bring my introduction to a close, and let's get to the important part and the important information that we have to share with you today. And I will pass it back to Curtis.
Curtis Philippon
ExecutivesGreat. Thanks, Beth. So we put together a video for you today to introduce you to a few more members of the Gibson team, but also to introduce you to our -- what we call our crown jewel assets. These are truly integral parts of the North American energy infrastructure picture. And this video is going to give you a bit of an appreciation for the scale and criticality of those assets. And so we'll pause for 1 minute here just to clear the stage, and we'll roll the video. [Presentation]
Curtis Philippon
ExecutivesAll right. Thank you. The team had a lot of fun putting that together. It's impressive assets. It's impressive drone work, I got to say as well that's great to watch. Hopefully, that gave you a good view of just how critical these assets are and how impactful they are to the North American energy infrastructure picture. And these assets really act as the building block for our strategy and the basis for our growth going forward. We're very excited about them. The other thing about these assets are is they're exceptionally safely run operations. And this is a success story that we're most proud of, you see on the screen is our safety performance over the last year. So on the right-hand side of that chart, you see the total recordable injury frequency for the midstream sector across Canada and the U.S. And Gibson is not just top quartile. We are the #1 safety performing company in the midstream space across all of North America over the last year. And that type of safety performance doesn't just happen. We've got an outstanding safety program, an outstanding safety culture driving that level of performance. It starts with a relentless focus on continuous improvement, a real learning culture, a very engaged leadership. And all those things drive these great safety results and culture and performance. And all of that goes into driving great operations. And it's really with that operations capability that it really enables us to execute well on our strategy. So our strategy is simple, and it hasn't changed, and it's straightforward. We are a crude oil infrastructure company. We've been doing this for 70 years, and we are very good at it. Our business is based around crown jewel infrastructure assets around Canada and the U.S. and those crown jewel assets provide an opportunity for us to drive strong infrastructure growth around those assets. We've got a disciplined approach in how we allocate capital and how we grow our business. And with this very engaged strong group, we're able to drive differentiated results. Beth mentioned that our last Investor Day was 6 years ago. So we thought it would be timely to step back and take a look at what has our track record been over the last 6 years. And so Gibson has changed a lot over that time. So since 2019, our storage footprint has more than doubled to over 25 million barrels. Our infrastructure EBITDA has more than doubled. We've become increasingly diversified across Canada and the U.S. with now 1/4 of our revenues driven out of the U.S. and we've become increasingly infrastructure focused, and that's driven more consistency and stability in our cash flows. And when you really step back and look at Gibson over the last 6 years, we've done a good job of decluttering the business, getting it focused on our core high-quality infrastructure assets. And we now have 2 platforms for growth, one on each side of the border that we can drive growth from going forward. Specifically, over the last year, I'm quite proud of the results the team has driven. It's been a record year for the business. You've heard me a number of times talk about our 5 big pushes on our goals in the business. But today, I'll talk about 2 of them in particular. We spent a lot of time developing what we call our high-performing team. And we've got a real push on making sure we've got the right team, the right people in the seats across the organization that set us up for our success. And one of the things that we spent a lot of time over the last year is increasing the commercial bench strength and the depth and the strength of our commercial team to support an accelerated growth rate. We've also spent a fair bit of time working on what I call the plumbing of a goal-focused culture. And to really have a high-performing goal-focused culture, you have to be deliberate about that. We spent a lot of time developing aligned goals, making sure that people understood what good goals were that drive impactful results in the business. And we -- we made sure that they're communicated well through the business to the point where I would challenge you to find very many people within our 500 employees that don't have a very clear picture of what Gibson's goals are and what success looks like for the business. Then on top of that, we layered in compensation systems to make sure that employees are properly rewarded for executing on goals and also held accountable for executing on goals. Second goal I'll touch on today is our cost focus initiative. We're super proud of this. It's been a big success story for us, drove significant run rate cost savings of over $25 million. And I'll share one more -- Riley will talk about this a bit more later in the presentation, but I'll share one more success story around this. It's around our execution of our capital program over the last year. We're updating today that we expect that we will finish our year -- this year at around $110 million of growth capital deployed. But through outstanding project execution and cost focus, those -- the returns on those projects are expected to be at the bottom end of the 5 to 7 build multiple. So as we step forward into our 2026 priorities, that groundwork we did this year on building out the team, getting those good habits built around the team and that cost discipline serve us exceptionally well as we go execute on 2026 goals. And in particular, I'll highlight 2 of them today. One is around customers that we recognize there's an opportunity in the market right now with increasing activity, increasing production for us to find new solutions to help support our customers well. We've got an opportunity within our current terminal assets to increase our asset utilization, and we've got a goal to increase our utilization of our terminal assets from 85% currently to over 90% in 2026. And the second big growth area that we focused goal, we're focused on is around growth specifically. We've got a $150 million capital program that we announced earlier this morning. And there's a number of milestones that we'll be tracking over the course of the year as we execute on that program within that 5 to 7 build multiple. So we'll talk in more depth about growth a bit later in the presentation, but let me step back first and talk a little bit about why invest in Gibson. So it starts with these irreplaceable assets. So Gibson's terminals sit at the start and the end of the straws that feed the global energy markets. We play a critical role in not just helping our customers get their barrels to market, but also to help our customers get their barrels to market at the best possible netbacks. And we are a significant role in that. If you look at some of these stats, we're quite proud of, 1 in 4 barrels in Western Canada go through a Gibson terminal to get to market. Over 50% of the heavy volumes on TMX go through Gibson terminals. Over 50% of the Keystone line goes through Gibson terminals, 20% of the mainline. And in the U.S., with our recently expanded Gateway facility, we are the fastest-growing, most efficient crude export terminal in North America and to the point now where we are today exporting 1 in 5 barrels out of the U.S. go through the Gibson Gateway facility. It's something we're quite proud of. So going along with great assets, you've got great customers. So our customers appreciate the value of these assets and they occupy our terminals, and we have had long-standing relationships with our customers. On the left-hand side of this chart, you see that over 85% of our customers are investment grade in nature. In Canada, the majority of our large customers are oil sands producers that are extremely healthy and all of them are growing right now, creating lots of very interesting opportunities for us. One of them, in particular, a long-term customer for us that we've been working with for over 35 years in Edmonton, helped us out with a little bit of sizzle today to our Investor Day. They re-upped the 20-year contract extension to our -- in our Edmonton terminal. It's really significant. This customer and this contract represents about 40% of our revenues in our Edmonton terminal, and we're very proud to extend this 35-year relationship for another 20 years and proud to work well with that customer. And thank you to them. So that long-term nature of strong customers feeds well into this, and it really drives a stable, consistent high-quality cash flow for our business. And I love this chart for how boring it is. And if you look at over time, so this is from 2021 to current, the black line shows what the WTI price has done. And you see all types of volatility over the last 5 years. But if you look at the blue bars, that is our infrastructure EBITDA per quarter, and you see a remarkable consistency. Save for midway through there where we acquired the Gateway terminal and there was a step-up. There's just been consistent incremental improvement with the deployment of additional growth capital. And that sort of boring consistency to our infrastructure business really enables us to pay a very strong dividend, and it's a key part of the Gibson story. We've got 6 consecutive years of a growing dividend, a consistent growth of our dividend. We expect that to continue. It's well supported with our infrastructure business with sort of consistently over those last 5 years, an 80% payout ratio from an infrastructure perspective. And we're proud on the right-hand side of the chart that you see that we are the seventh highest yield for an investment-grade company from a dividend perspective. And if you step back, you see that over the last 5 years, we've returned over $1.4 billion to shareholders. So that $1.4 billion helps drive an attractive total return for our customers. Over the last 5 years, we generated over a 70% return or almost a 70% return for shareholders. From where I sit today and the opportunity set that we see in front of the company, we see the ability to drive a growth rate of over 7%. And with that, combined with a strong dividend yield, I personally invest in Gibson with an expectation that we will achieve over 100% return for shareholders over the next 5 years. So we get asked, why are you so confident in the growth of Gibson? Well, it starts with the macro. If you step back, you look at the world needs more energy, the world needs more crude oil. Even the IEA, its current policy scenario talks about oil growth and demand -- oil demand continuing to grow through 2050. A significant amount of that oil demand will be met by Canada and the U.S. and Gibson has a key role to play in that. From a crude export perspective, we see continued growth in crude export. And I mentioned earlier that Gibson's Ingleside facility is the fastest-growing, most efficient crude export terminal. We expect we'll continue to realize good benefits of this increasing crude export story in the world. And then if you look specifically in Canada, you see healthy producers that are continuing to grow. And also, I'll step back, I would say this is the best political climate we've seen in Canada for growing and building energy infrastructure that we've seen in a decade. And so each time you see a headline that talks about a customer increasing production or perhaps a pipeline capacity increase and even incremental increases in capacity or whole new pipelines know that those are great positive indicators for Gibson. A good rule of thumb that we use is that for every barrel of pipeline capacity increase that you see in the market, you need 4 barrels of terminal storage to be able to support that. And Gibson over the last 10 years has built the lion's share, the vast majority of tankage terminal capacity to support pipeline growth, and we firmly expect you'll see that continue as you go forward as well. So why else are we confident in this top-tier sort of growth torque from the Gibson business? Well, there's two things on this slide. So one is we've done it before. So over the last 5 years, we've been north of 7%. So we've already demonstrated an ability to drive that north of 7% growth rate. And the second thing is the Gibson size. And I think this is quite interesting in that Gibson is big enough to do big projects, and we have got a platform on both sides of the border to go grow off of. But we're small enough that bite-sized projects actually matter for us, and we can have impactful results from even very small projects. And if you look on the right-hand side of the chart, we call it the power of small numbers that for Gibson to go drive a 1% increase in infrastructure growth rate, we need to deploy between $30 million and $45 million of growth capital. That compares to our peers who need several hundred million and in some cases, over $1 billion of growth capital to go move their growth rate by 1%. It's a real advantage for Gibson in that there's more growth torque to our numbers, but also allows us to grow without requiring us to take major project risks. Now I know that one of the comments that we've heard a lot is people are craving additional insight into what exactly is this growth pipeline that you talk about. And what is this backlog of projects? We've talked a lot over the last year that we see in front of us a backlog of $1 billion in projects that we can go deploy over the next 5 years. And I know people are craving some additional details. So I'm going to pause a bit on this slide to dive deep into each of the 5 legs that I see that will drive the growth over the next 5 years. So the first leg is our producer partnerships. And this is a new leg for Gibson that we started this year when we announced our infrastructure partnership in the Duvernay with Baytex and so we announced that project back in March of this year, and we've put it into service in the fourth quarter. We deployed about $40 million in that particular project, and it's been a great success story. We love these projects because it involves building infrastructure in the field to support our customers and solve a problem for our customers, but it also drives additional volume to our core terminals. So we get incremental benefit in those terminals, and we also get a competitive barrier, put a bit of a moat up. In this particular case, we locked up those barrels for the next 10 years plus. And that's a significant advantage for our core terminals. Doing that project opened that market up for us. And we expect that we'll do 1 to 2 of these types of agreements per year for the next 5 years, and we see a total opportunity set of about $300 million. And I'll note that on these overall numbers on each bucket that you see on the slide in front of you that we've risked that number to say what is a realistic execution. This is not the total backlog. If you added up the total backlog of potential projects, it's much larger. But we've looked back and said, realistically, with the real opportunities we see in front of us and the time frame of 5 years, what can you actually deploy? And so we view that as $300 million in this particular segment. Second segment is around extending pipeline networks. And so increasing production, increasing customer demand drives the need for more pipeline connections and additional pipes coming into our core terminals. We see that clearly. We've seen that accelerate as more and more growth plans are happening, both in Canada and the U.S. And we think this is an interesting growth leg for us for some of these smaller connections and smaller pipeline additions around our core assets. We'll talk about one of them in particular already that we're sanctioning this morning. So we see a total opportunity set of over $250 million in this particular leg. Now also with increasing pipeline connections and increasing customer growth, we see opportunity for tanks. And we're Gibson, we love tanks. We're very good at tanks. This is a great part of our business, and we're excited to see that with this production growth, you're going to see more tanks being deployed. We expect over the next 5 years across our Canadian and U.S. terminals, you'll see us put into service more than 5 tanks, deploy over $250 million, specifically around adding more tankage in our facilities to support this growth. And we announced this morning a couple of smaller tanks out in our Wink, West Texas asset. Next one is around the DRU. So the DRU we put into service in 2021. So that was the first phase. And when that first phase was built, it was built with the idea that you could add 4 additional phases to that facility. So first phase has been running now for about 5 years, and it's proven to be a very efficient and effective way to provide an additional egress option out of Canada. And what's interesting is that it's proven, it works, and you can build it in under 2 years, potentially build it as short as 18 months. And when we look forward and you think about all this production growth coming at Western Canada, we see that there will be a need for all of the above when it comes to egress solutions. And we expect that the DRU will be part of the solution for providing egress options and also market optionality for our customers. Now the DRU allows you to take your product to multiple different markets across the world. And so with that, we expect that we will put into service 1 to 2 phases of the DRU over the next 5 years, additional phases. We also see optimization projects. And these will always come up. There's just a lot of interesting opportunities to help us debottleneck our facilities, drive additional profitability or also just to respond to a unique customer need in our facilities. And there's a number of different projects in the queue that we'll constantly be working at. We see an opportunity to deploy about $100 million on those types of projects over the next 5 years. So in total, we see that we have an ability to go deploy -- we expect to go deploy between $700 million and $1 billion of growth capital across those 5 buckets over the next 5 years, not even talking about the longer-term projects of a Gateway further dock expansion. But just within the next 5 years, we see the $700 million to $1 billion capital deployment program that on that alone will drive an over 5% growth rate for the business. So specifically today, we announced the sanctioning of the first part of that. So we announced a growth capital program of $150 million for 2026. And the first part of that is the sanctioning of a project that's just about $50 million related to what we're calling a Wink-to-Gateway integration project. And the need for this project comes out of the fact that we're seeing increasing demand from customers, and there's a benefit we can provide to our customers by helping them source additional supply for off-the- dock capacity. And so we love that we can help out our customers solve a problem, find additional supply, but we also love that by extending our value chain, we get to touch the barrel a few more times along the process. And it's an attractive project from that perspective. There's 2 parts to it. One is out and Wink will additional tank capacity to increase the capacity of that asset. And the second part of it is at Gateway that will be twinning a connection point, a pipeline connection coming into that facility to allow us to simultaneously feed from the Eagle Ford harvest connection as well as the epic Cactus III line directly into our facility. Overall, this project is expected to be in service in Q3 2026, and we expect it to be built at a 5x build multiple. These projects also have a nice feature of really building off of the success we've had in Gateway over the last year on the dredging project and the Cactus II connection as well. On top of the growth capital, there's an opportunity and a lever that I believe is underappreciated within Gibson. And this is a beautiful thing from my perspective and that there's an ability to drive a capital-free rate of growth out of the business. We expect that through a combination of asset utilization, pricing and cost discipline that there's an opportunity to drive an incremental $70 million a year by 2030 out of our assets and drive an over 2% growth rate in our business out of these capital-free options alone. So overall, when you step back, you see the combination of growth projects, and the combination of these capital-free levers to go pull will drive an attractive 7% growth rate. I think that's exciting because, in my view, that type of growth rate is not currently priced into the Gibson share price. And as we go out and we go deliver and execute on this, it's going to drive a material improvement in shareholder returns. So with that, I'm going to turn it over to Riley Hicks to walk through how we're going to finance all this exciting growth.
Riley Hicks
ExecutivesThank you, Curtis. This is an incredibly exciting time for Gibson as we enter the next phase of our growth, and our disciplined financial strategy will help guide us into the future. You might be wondering what does that strategy look like for Gibson? Well, to me, our financial principles make it simple. We maintain discipline across our entire business. We balance growth with returns by deploying capital at 5 to 7x build multiples. We consistently enhance the quality of our cash flow stream, and we preserve the strength of our balance sheet and our investment-grade rating. Over time, these principles have served us well as reflected in the current quality of our cash flow profiles. Over 95% of our infrastructure revenue is driven by take-or-pay or fee-for-service contracts with the majority of those backstopped by high-quality investment-grade counterparties. Why does this matter? Well, to me, it means that our cash flow stream is both predictable and durable in any commodity cycle. From a balance sheet perspective, we continue to target infrastructure leverage of 4x or less while maintaining an attractive payout ratio and funding a sustainable and growing dividend and a robust organic growth capital program. I'm sure we can all agree that financial discipline is critical to the success of any company and that discipline and capital allocation go hand-in-hand, and so I'll touch on that next. So at Gibson, we're incredibly proud of our ownership culture. And as owners ourselves, we treat every dollar, whether it's revenue, cost or capital as an investment that must generate long-term value. Our capital allocation philosophy really revolves around 3 core priorities. First, we fund our dividend, ensuring we return a reliable stream of capital back to our shareholders. Second, we invest in our business. That means disciplined infrastructure growth backed up by great contracts and customers. And third, we endeavor to fund the first 2 priorities while maintaining a strong and flexible balance sheet. Once we've addressed these 3 priorities, we return -- we look to return additional capital to our shareholders through sustainable dividend increases that are directly tied to our infrastructure growth profile, share buybacks and when the right opportunity exists, strategic and accretive M&A. This consistent approach to capital allocation gives investors confidence in our reliable yield and our ability to execute on all of our growth, and it's delivered meaningful results in our infrastructure business over time. So you heard Curtis talk a lot and you saw a really great video about our crown jewel assets. And these assets have really been the historical engine of Gibson's growth. The critical nature of these assets and the increasing demand for our services will ensure that these assets drive our growth well into the future. Since 2020, our infrastructure adjusted EBITDA per share has grown at an 8% CAGR, which translates roughly to a 3% per share annual EBITDA increase. I want to pause here and point that out a little bit further. We've delivered an 8% infrastructure EBITDA growth rate over the last 5 years, while divesting a portfolio of noncore assets and returning over $1.4 billion to our shareholders. So why does this matter? It shows that we have a track record of consistently delivering top-tier growth, and we've kept a focus on safety, operational efficiency and cost discipline. That focus on cost discipline has really paid off this year as in 2025, we recognized $25 million of annual savings to the business, with the impact split roughly equally between adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow. We talked a lot about how 2025 has been a record year for Gibson, and it's truly been a great year. But the one thing that I'm most proud of is our cost savings initiative, and that's because it's been led by our people. Over 80% of our organization submitted an idea to this initiative, and we've implemented over 300 of their ideas this year. So why is this so meaningful to me? Well, it's because it became from all parts of our organization, truly from the ground up. It's a great reflection of Gibson's ownership culture and action. These cost savings have resulted in nearly a 30% decrease in our operating cost per barrel year-over-year, setting us up for sustained growth and strengthening both our competitive and financial position. So let's take a look at that financial position for a little bit. Our balance sheet remains one of the strongest in the Canadian midstream space. With leverage of 3.9x and a stable investment-grade credit rating, we have both resilience and flexibility built into our model. Why does the balance sheet mean so much to me? Well, ultimately, it's what gives us confidence that we can execute on the $1 billion growth portfolio that Curtis laid out for you. As we dive a little bit further into our funding strategy, we would expect to fund roughly 75% of our capital priorities over the next 5 years with internally generated cash flow. This aligns with our financial principles and creates ample capacity for us to fund all of our growth objectives while preserving the strength of our balance sheet. This is an incredibly rare position. We can fund the entire growth portfolio that Curtis just laid out, $1 billion, and we will still reduce our leverage over time. That sets us up for sustained success and an ability to deliver additional capital back to our shareholders over time. So what does the future look like? Well, Curtis said it, but I'm going to say it again. We will deliver over 7% infrastructure EBITDA per share growth through 2030. This will be achieved by organic expansion, asset optimization and capital discipline. From a distributable cash flow per share perspective, this steady infrastructure growth will result in a 10% growth rate in that time, setting us up to continually sustainably grow our dividend. So from an investor perspective, what does that mean? Well, when you combine a 7% infrastructure yield with our top-tier dividend, Gibson becomes the single most compelling total return story in the entire midstream sector. I'll leave you with one last piece. As you combine all the things that make Gibson's great, our disciplined strategy, our critical irreplaceable asset base and our financial strength, we have a clear line of sight to delivering over 100% total shareholder returns by 2030. Our model is proven, predictable and built to deliver financial returns well into the future. With that, I'm going to turn it back to Curtis for some closing remarks.
Curtis Philippon
ExecutivesThanks, Riley. Well, I think Riley did a great job summing this up. We think this is a pretty compelling story to go drive this type of growth rate and the total returns that come out of that. And I got to say we're not just saying these things. We believe it. Gibson Board, Gibson management, Gibson employees are all out buying the shares. And over the last year since I joined, we've personally purchased shares over $12 million into the story, and we're proud of that. And we're proud of the fact that we're invested alongside with you, and we're going to go out and deliver on this. So with that, I'm going to pause, and we're going to clear the state. I think we're going to take a 30-second pause, and we'll get Beth and Riley up on the stage for some Q&A. So thank you.
Beth Pollock
ExecutivesThanks, everyone. So we'll have two mics in the room for the Q&A, and then we'll also be accepting questions via the online platform. So if you would like to ask a question please raise your hand and operator will bring you the microphone if you're in the room. [Operator Instructions]
Robert Catellier
AnalystsRob Catellier from CIBC. A couple of questions for you. I wondered if you could address directly the Canada, Alberta MOU that was announced last week. Obviously, there's still a lot of wood to chop and a lot of unknowns. But there seems to be an appetite generally in the industry for pipeline to the West Coast, and that could move some of the food from Hardisty over to Edmonton. Maybe that all comes from growth, but maybe there's some displacement as well. So I wanted to get your view on that and how Gibson is positioned and maybe some of the commercial strategies you're considering for -- to retain customers over at Hardisty.
Curtis Philippon
ExecutivesGreat. Thanks, Rob. So yes, the MOU announced last week, and I'd say I'd sort of step back and say, just in general, the positive climate from a political standpoint that is the best we've seen over the last 10 years. And that MOU was a great step along the way. It's quite encouraging to see the changes that we're talking about. And I would say the #1 thing for me that stood out out of the MOU was the removal of the oil and gas emissions cap. And that is really impactful for our customers. It really gives our customers the ability now to act like a normal business and actually think about deploying capital and make smart decisions to go grow their businesses and have confidence in investing capital into Canada. That was a really significant step out of that. I think there is a lot of wood to chop on what exactly the pipeline looks like. But I'll tell you that one change alone really allows our customers now to go to work and think about growing their business with confidence. And I would say the market will decide where the best pipeline egress option is and for how that works out and whether that's to the West Coast or South or where it is. But I think it's just a great positive indicator that we're out there doing these sorts of practical things. And so that was the #1 thing. And from a commercial strategy perspective, I think one of the benefits is we already have a great relationship with all the big producers that will be most directly impacted by this. And so we're already seeing an increase in activity from a commercial standpoint of the largest producers already thinking about seeing increased production. And so you saw in one of the slides, they're already before this thinking about sort of seeing almost 1 billion -- almost 1 million barrels a day of production coming on stream over the next 5 years -- over the next sort of just over 5 years. And so you're seeing this now added on top of that already with that same group of customers we already talked about. So we've been seeing good commercial discussions already in support of this and expect that to accelerate.
Robert Catellier
AnalystsSo just a quick second question here for Riley. Just in terms of capital allocation, the -- both the leverage and the payout ratio are slightly higher than your stated targets. So I'm wondering how that impacts your approach to capital allocation, specifically the dividend and dividend growth. There's obviously some short-term things that happen in the business that may not recur, but I'm just curious how you're looking at the dividend growth rate.
Riley Hicks
ExecutivesYes. Thanks, Rob. Yes, when you take a look at our leverage, the overall leverage is slightly elevated, and that's really a result of our marketing performance over the last year. But when I think about the leverage that impacts our dividend and the potential to grow our dividend, I really look at infrastructure leverage, and we feel really comfortable with where our infrastructure leverage is right now. So we think about the dividend, the dividend is always going to be a Board decision whether or not we raise it, but we feel very confident in our growth rate in our infrastructure business, and that's how we kind of typically would look at dividend increases. How is our infrastructure business growing and how do we feel about that?
Beth Pollock
ExecutivesLet's take one from the room, and then we'll go online.
Benjamin Pham
AnalystsIt's Ben Pham, BMO Capital Markets. A couple of questions for me. On the growth guidance, 7% plus. It's interesting to see that versus, say, a range of 5% to 7%. So the 7% plus, you think of it as a floor on growth, which is quite good compared to your peers. Can you expand on what's out of the possible? Is it going to be 10% theoretically? And what gets you there? Do you need acquisitions to get you to that a higher amount than 10%?
Curtis Philippon
ExecutivesYes. Thanks, Ben. So what does that look like? What does that range look like? So we feel very good about the over 7% growth rate, and that's within our control. So these are within growth projects that we see that we can go deploy and some of these internal levers we can go pull for growth within our current business that don't require capital. So we feel very good about being north of 7%. I maybe won't put an end cap on where -- how high we think we can run off that, but we feel very good about being north of 7%. And yes, any sort of complementary M&A and things like that have the ability to potentially further enhance that. But right now, when we think about the 7% target, it's really what do we have in front of us right now that we can go control and go execute on.
Benjamin Pham
AnalystsAnd maybe one follow-up from the 5% plus I recall from the Gateway tour, which isn't so long ago, you've topped it up with another 2%. Is that more of evidence you're seeing from the recent recontracting that gives you some evidence around that, just the recontracting rates may you're seeing some upward bias to it?
Curtis Philippon
ExecutivesYes. I think it's really all of the above. Like we're seeing very good trends on just what our commercial discussions with customers are, but we're also seeing progress on these growth projects in the background as well that's giving us confidence. And we also wanted to save a little bit for the Investor Day today, to be honest, Ben, that let's say 5% plus midway through the year. And when we have a little bit more granular detail for today, we could unveil the true target of over 7%.
Beth Pollock
ExecutivesAnd we have a follow-up question online related to the EBITDA growth guidance. So the 7% EBITDA growth guidance -- and this is from Jeremy Tonet at JPMorgan -- through 2030. Would you be able to provide some additional color on the shaping of the growth? Is it going to be linear or not?
Riley Hicks
ExecutivesYes, I'll take this one. Thanks, Jeremy. Typically, when we think about the shaping of the growth, it isn't usually a linear process. It's -- it's a little bit chunkier. And so in 2026, we've said we expect to do 5% or more on the infrastructure side, and we feel great about that number. And then we see it ramping up over the years, especially as we build out the commercial backlog that we have great line of sight to. It certainly takes 2 people to do a deal. So the timing of that is always tougher to say, but we feel very confident in the 7% plus.
Beth Pollock
ExecutivesA follow-up on growth from Derek Tovich at Manulife. For the growth projects, will you be developing these projects on spec? Or would you proceed once you have secured commercial take-or-pay contracts? And then how do you see your marketing business growing as you develop your growth projects? And what do you see as your run rate EBITDA for the marketing business out to 2030?
Curtis Philippon
ExecutivesWe're midstreamers. So yes, thank you for the question. But we're midstreamers. We value customer relationships and long-term contracts with our customers. And so we don't do things on spec at large scale. There's small things we may do that bolt-on around our current assets, but our business is based around finding solutions that work for our customers that have good, strong contract backing. And with that is when we would go forward with those projects. And as Riley noted, that does drive a little bit of chunkiness at times to the timing of the projects, but it's important to us that the contracts are well backed by our customers.
Beth Pollock
ExecutivesAnd then the second part of the question was around the marketing business outlook as we develop our growth projects and what we see as our run rate EBITDA for the marketing business out to 2030.
Curtis Philippon
ExecutivesYes. The marketing business is for 2026, we expect it's going to look a lot like 2025. And through 2025, as you've all come to expect, each quarter, we're seeing sort of between a $0 million and $10 million EBITDA per quarter. We think realistically, it's going to be an efficient market again next year, and we're not currently seeing a shift from a backward dated market. And so we expect as you get into 2026, you're going to continue to see that sort of $0 million to $10 million per quarter type run rate for the marketing business. Overall, it's a relatively small part of the Gibson story. We're focused on growing our infrastructure business. And when the marketing numbers are a little bit on the down end of the cycle, that's quite helpful for our customers as it shows there's an efficient market that allows our infrastructure customers to grow. As you look out over the longer term, we do think that inevitably, there'll be disruptions in the market. There'll be egress challenges at times in the market that will create a sort of return to different opportunities for the marketing business. It's a great part of the Gibson business and that as there's disruptions, the nature of our assets allows us to help our customers out and also provide opportunities for the marketing business. And so as we get out to 2030, we expect that to return to the $80 million range out in 2030 from a marketing contribution perspective.
Beth Pollock
ExecutivesThanks, Curtis. Maybe we'll take a couple more from the room, and then we'll go back.
Robert Hope
AnalystsRobert Hope from Scotiabank. Can we dive a little bit deeper into the 2% growth that is capital free. On the pricing opportunity there, how much is related to just the normal inflationary increases there versus are there uplifts in pricing as you renew contracts? And I guess, specifically, was there an uplift at the Edmonton contract?
Curtis Philippon
ExecutivesDo you want to talk to that?
Riley Hicks
ExecutivesYes. Maybe we'll start with the Edmonton contract, and then we can kind of get into some of the granular details. So on the Edmonton contract, those are 2 great contracts that we've signed with our customers. We're excited to keep them in the terminal. And what I'd say about that is no change to your guys' models in terms of what our run rate EBITDA would look like.
Curtis Philippon
ExecutivesAnd then I'll echo on how do we think about the pricing opportunity on the 2%. So a big part of this is just contractually baked in. So our typical contract from an infrastructure perspective, there is a 2% adder typically for inflationary adder per year on these contracts. And so you have this natural opportunity around that, and we need to do a good job of executing and maintaining cost discipline to be able to drive some of that to the bottom line. But that's sort of naturally baked into our contracts. We are seeing good positive indicators for pricing overall in the market. I would maybe hesitate to talk about sort of pricing-related discussions with customers in this venue, but it's -- we are -- a lot of the pricing indicator that we've baked into this is really just the contractually what's already in the contract from the 2% escalation per year.
Robert Hope
AnalystsAll right. I appreciate that. And then maybe shifting the focus to Gateway. You've done a great job getting that 15% to 20% run rate EBITDA boost. When we look beyond that, what do you think the natural growth rate is for Gateway?
Curtis Philippon
ExecutivesWe called out on that 2% slide that I see that out of -- with the current assets, so what's the growth opportunity in Gateway with the current work that we've done today in Gateway with the Cactus connections and also with the work we've done with the port to be able to get night window capacity additions. So the ability to move large-scale vessels over at night, that really opens up an interesting further growth leg for that business. And so we targeted just over $20 million of upside out of existing capital that's deployed in addition to what we're already seeing in the fourth quarter. And some of that is a very good sort of a nice profitability uptick. But from a midstreamer perspective, one of the changes that you'll see over the next few years is just an increasing shift to lock that in, in a take-or-pay perspective. And so post dredging, we realized the benefit immediately on some of the profitability increase, but some through the increasing activity at the terminal. But some of that's just coming through additional throughput fees because the original contracts at Gateway were based around an Aframax-sized vessel. And now that we've dredged and we're a VLCC sized vessel, you're getting paid on that incremental throughput, but as midstreamers would rather have it as a take-or-pay. And so as the contracts are coming up on a renewal basis, we're contracting now on a Suezmax or VLCC basis and increasing that guaranteed revenue per window.
Aaron MacNeil
AnalystsIt's Aaron MacNeil here from TD Cowen. So Curtis, you mentioned the reduction in marketing activities that's freed up terminal capacity for customers. Can you sort of dig into that a bit deeper? Curious to know what you think the order of magnitude is there?
Curtis Philippon
ExecutivesYes. Thanks, Aaron. Yes, it's significant enough that we've put a real focus on our infrastructure business. And we're just looking at what the opportunity set within marketing is and what we see our customers doing from a growth perspective, we saw an opportunity to better utilize some of those tankage capacity for third-party customers. And so you would have heard us in the past talk about how we're 100% utilized, and that's true. But the marketing was at times using a good chunk of that tankage. And so we scaled that back now, and we've got it sort of rightsized for the size of the marketing business, and that's opened up -- nicely opened up 15% of our capacity within our terminals to go grow with third-party customers.
Riley Hicks
ExecutivesMaybe I'll just jump in there, too, Aaron. Just to be clear, Curtis and I made that change at the start of the year. So our EBITDA that we've been running at on the infrastructure side is reflective of that 85% utilization. And so this is true upside to our EBITDA.
Aaron MacNeil
AnalystsGot it. Okay. And then maybe I'll just ask the M&A question. So what type of acquisition or asset profile as possible for Gibson? And what do you think makes sense strategically?
Riley Hicks
ExecutivesSure. Maybe I'll start and Curtis can jump in. But when we think about M&A, obviously, we're incredibly disciplined. I've been here for 7 years. I ran that business for a long time. We did one deal. But when we look at the opportunity set, we like assets that tie into our facilities and increase the competitive moat of our facilities. So value chain extending assets that we can drive synergies off of whether it's commercial or operational synergies that can really drive our multiple down into that 5 to 7 build multiple over time. So that's where we're focused. We think there's some out there that will be available over the next few years, but we will remain incredibly disciplined. We aren't going to go spend a number that doesn't make sense for us. We're going to stick within our financial principles, and so we'll see how that works.
Curtis Philippon
ExecutivesI'll just add to that a little bit. So I think there's a couple of interesting things from an M&A perspective. One, from an overall market perspective out there that I think there's been a tremendous push around gas assets that a number of companies are very focused on pursuing gas assets. That actually opens up a bit of an opportunity for Gibson and a crude-focused name like us to find some very interesting assets out there in the market. So we're spending a fair bit of time thinking about what are some of those crude assets that fit in really nicely with our current assets and our current profile of what we're looking for. So we're excited about that. We're spending a bit more time on that. And then also from an internal inside the company perspective, we did a major acquisition just over a couple of years ago with Gateway. And so a year ago, I would have said our focus is on delivering on gateway. Like we added a significant new platform. We need to do a very good job of integrating that asset and go on delivering on that and proving to the market that we did an excellent acquisition, and we did that. I think there's a resounding check market on that. I think we've done an excellent job. The team has done a great job of delivering on that asset. So I think that gives us confidence to look and what else can we add that bolts into our current story to further strengthen these core assets.
Beth Pollock
ExecutivesWe have a quick question online, and then we'll jump back to the room. So Gower Ramesh from Picton asked about the FIDs. How far along are we on them? Are they all roughly the same stages of decision-making? Are they in substantially different stages? And what should we expect? I think this is a reference to the slide number with regards to project FIDs. No, it's not a slide number. It's the year 2026.
Curtis Philippon
ExecutivesThanks, Gower. Yes, the projects are progressing at various stage. I wouldn't say they're all at the same stage. We feel good about the $150 million of capital deployed in 2026. It does require customers to hit certain decision points and milestones. And so we'll see for the exact timing of the deployment of the capital, but we feel very good about the growth capital. We've got a number of interesting things right in front of us. We talked about already on the Wink-to-Gateway integration projects that are coming a little bit faster into the front end of the year and feel good about some of the FIDs that we'll see in the back half of the year. Anything else you'd add to that one?
Riley Hicks
ExecutivesNo, I think we've said we're going to spend $150 million next year, and I think we feel very confident in that number. So that would be the last comment.
Maurice Choy
AnalystsIt's Maurice Choy from RBC Capital Markets. First question on -- you mentioned the positive political climate earlier on. What more do you want to see or anticipate to see from any of the federal or provincial governments?
Curtis Philippon
ExecutivesThanks, Maurice. What more do we want to see from the political -- maybe the removal of a tanker ban would be helpful. That's -- but I think it's just continuing progress on -- we're starting to see some clarity on some of these rules and just maybe just the consistency of that message shift. This is a significant step that we've taken. And I think people have been burned in the past. And I think they're going to need to see government political parties and all governments acting in a consistent rational way for a consistent period of time in order to have the confidence to go deploy capital in Canada. And I think these are -- we're all good capitalists making decisions and boardrooms all over the place. And I think if you set up that sort of confidence to go deploy capital, you'll see capital come to Canada. There's just a tremendous resource. There's a tremendous opportunity. And I think it's just that consistency and confidence that you know the rules and you can invest with confidence. And I think you'll see investment not just locally, but I think you'll see global investment coming back to Canada in a bigger way with that.
Maurice Choy
AnalystsGreat. And just a second question, just I want to double-click on M&A comment earlier again. You mentioned that Gibson's terminals sit at the start and end of the straws that feed the global energy markets. What about the body of the straw like pipelines and whether that integrated model will be attractive to you strategically over the long term?
Curtis Philippon
ExecutivesYes. We see pipes fitting well into our terminals, in particular, things that connect directly into our facility. I think that's a great fit for us, and we're happy to look at those sorts of things. We operate a number of pipes already today, some smaller pipe systems that fit nicely into our assets that help us control the barrel and touch in a few different ways. And so we find that interesting.
Patrick Kenny
AnalystsPat Kenny, National Bank. Just on the 2028 time frame for the DRU expansion, I was just wondering if you could help us square up your expectations for customer demand just in light of the 700,000 to 800,000 barrels a day of pipeline egress opportunities that are being talked about out there. What other attributes of the DRU expansion might customers be thinking about in light of the pipeline opportunities?
Curtis Philippon
ExecutivesYes. I think what's the key attribute of the DRU expansion is that it's actionable, that it's a clearly actionable solution that gives you efficient egress. Each phase gives you 50,000 barrels a day of egress capacity at a reasonable price. So a phase of the DRU is around $200 million. If you compare that against various other options to give increasing capacity out of Western Canada, it's a reasonable cost. You can execute it in under 2 years. And so I think that's going to be part of the sort of all of the above solution. And some of these projects -- these projects are all great. We love all of them. There is some uncertainty on the timing of when some of these projects hit. And so the ability to have a controllable time line with the DRU is interesting. And the second part of that is I do think the market matters. I think we've had a number of customers that have seen a number of -- just a number of parties that have seen the impact of having an option to where you can take your barrel. And I think that's the interesting aspect of the DRU because you've got a portable product that you can put on rail, you can take it anywhere. You're not necessarily limited to where the linear infrastructure can take your barrel. And that allows you some sort of on-land options to be able to take a very custom barrel to a refiner in North America or it allows you to go access the global market with that barrel very directly and not need a new pipeline to go pull that off. And so I think it's an interesting option. So it's really that sort of actionability nature of the DRU, combined with that optionality on the end market that makes it attractive gives us confidence that you'll see that grow. And I would shout out as well that I don't think it's an accident that we've got a significant new partner with the rail terminal attached to the DRU. We see our large producers in Strathcona, our large producers all thinking about they need all of the above solutions for getting barrels out of Western Canada. And you see them -- I see Strathcona making a bet to say that they see this is going to be part of the solution set.
Patrick Kenny
AnalystsOkay. That's great. And just a quick follow-up on the Wink integration opportunity that you announced today. Just in light of the current commodity price environment, the outlook for 2026, maybe you can just comment any other greenfield or brownfield opportunities that might still be in the BD pipeline in light of the current oil price environment.
Curtis Philippon
ExecutivesYes, there's -- maybe I'll hesitate to announce any other projects here, Pat, but there's -- yes, we feel good about the $150 million of capital deployed for this year. So there's a number of well-developed projects that we see that we can go deploy this year. I think the interesting one I'd point back at is the infrastructure arrangement that we did with Baytex that we announced that in March of this year, and we were through the build and fully deployed on that project, generating revenue for that project by November. And so it gives you a bit of a taste of -- we talked about how these small projects are impactful to the bottom line. They're also faster cycle time. And it allows us to go from sort of FID announcement to revenue generation in a faster cycle than if you're talking about a $1 billion project.
George Burwell
AnalystsSam Burwell, Jefferies. On that note, I wanted to ask about the producer partnership opportunity. It seems like you want to do quite a few of these over the next 5 years. So like where do you see the most opportunities? Is it in the Duvernay, Clearwater, oil sands? How many of these could potentially be on the U.S. side? Just how might some of these future partnerships look different than the Baytex partnership?
Curtis Philippon
ExecutivesYes. We see it on both sides of the border, Sam. So thanks for the question. So where do we see it? We see it on both sides of the border. I think the Duvernay, because we did that initial agreement there, there's other interesting efficiencies by doing other agreements in that same area. So that's an interesting area. But really, it's any area that we have the right counterparty that we can partner with that has the right sort of take-or-pay agreement structure with that agreement, and it drives barrels to our core terminals, we're interested. And so we've looked at these sorts of projects in all different areas. In the Baytex example, it's driving volume to our Edmonton terminal. We've looked at other ones that are driving it to every other terminal in the company as well. So it makes us feel good about this -- we put out there as our target that we'll do 1 to 2 of these a year over the next 5 years.
George Burwell
AnalystsOkay. And then it seems like there's just a little bit of a deemphasis around marketing, trying to deploy more capacity towards the infrastructure piece of the business. So how much of that was informed by the experience over the past year or so relative to just the outlook that might be different with more crude egress potentially and possibly just more production but at a tighter dip?
Curtis Philippon
ExecutivesI think the key thing on why the emphasis on infrastructure is that's the core of our business. We're an infrastructure company. Over 95% of our earnings comes from infrastructure. So we intentionally spent a lot of time talking about today. I firmly believe it's the infrastructure business that drives the value for Gibson shareholders, and we spent a tremendous amount of time on growing that business and growing the customer relationships that support a strong growing infrastructure business. The marketing business is always going to be an interesting part of the Gibson business that we get the advantage of getting some additional earnings power to the business over the cycle, but it will be lumpy. Like it's just the nature of that business. Over the last 6 years, the Gibson marketing business contributed around $100 million a year, but it is all over the place. Like every year goes up and down. It depends on what's going on in the market from a sort of shape of the curve, refining crack spreads demand for asphalt. There's just a number of factors. Is there a disruption in the market from a pipeline perspective? There's all -- there's so many different things that it is a challenging business to predict. And so when we look forward today, for what we know today, we feel good about sort of the guidance we're giving you today for -- we expect it's going to be a fairly muted year for marketing. But we -- as I'd say, again, we love our infrastructure business and that muted environment for marketing is a great environment for our infrastructure customers. So we feel quite fine about that.
Beth Pollock
ExecutivesDo we have any other questions online or in the room? Perfect. So with that, thank you again for joining, and I will ask Curtis if he has any closing remarks.
Curtis Philippon
ExecutivesThanks, Beth, and thank you, everybody, for joining. It's great to see everybody that traveled -- joined us online. I think I saw a huge number for the number of people that are online. Great to see that and that kind of support in person. And thank you again to the number of people that traveled a long distance to be with us here today. So thank you very much. I see 161 people. All right. Thank you.
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