Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
May 14, 2024
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Geoffrey Meacham
analystWe have first day of the BofA Healthcare Conference. My name is Geoff Meacham. I'm the senior biopharma analyst here. We're thrilled today to have Gilead Sciences and with me on stage is CFO, Andy Dickinson. Andy, good to see you.
Andrew Dickinson
executiveThank you. Thank you for having us again. We're thrilled to be here.
Geoffrey Meacham
analystSo we won't do any prepared remarks coming out of the quarter. Maybe just let's get right into the core HIV business.
Andrew Dickinson
executiveSure.
Geoffrey Meacham
analystSo Biktarvy has done super, super well. You do have some competitive dynamics playing out, but that's not unusual for you guys. Give us kind of the look forward about the health of the -- just in the treatment setting, the HV business driven by Biktarvy and then we'll get into land and the development.
Andrew Dickinson
executiveSure. Yes, I'd be happy to. We had a very strong first quarter, and the business has done great over -- for decades now, including the last couple of years. In the first quarter, you saw Biktarvy on a year-over-year basis, take another 3 percentage points in terms of the overall HIV treatment market. It grew in terms of sales 10% year-over-year. Biktarvy is used in, I think, 49% of HIV patients in the United States. Most of those get Biktarvy out of the gate as their first HIV treatment, and they tend to stay on for a very long time because it is the gold standard, and I'll talk a little bit about why it's such a special combination product. . The -- but the overall business is doing great. HIV treatment in all major markets, including the United States, is still growing 2% to 3%, unfortunately. So despite all of the education efforts despite the availability of HIV prevention therapies that Gilead helped to pioneer, we still see the HIV market in all major markets growing 2% to 3% year-over-year in terms of volume and then price has been reasonably stable. And you see that in our business. Biktarvy is a $12 billion a year drug and growing. I mean it is the absolute gold standard. And the reason is they're really the -- it's the perfect drug for HIV. It's a combination of 3 really special active agents, all of which work against the virus in different ways. There is no resistance developing to Biktarvy. Unlike many other therapies, you don't have to genotype patients before you start on Biktarvy. After 5 years, 98% of patients that are treated on Biktarvy still have viral load reduction to the targeted level. So it's a really, really incredible therapy and one that has patent protection through 2033, if not beyond. So an important part of our portfolio and a great product for HIV patients globally.
Geoffrey Meacham
analystAnd Andy, when you think about the OUS opportunity, particularly in Europe, what is their -- the share is lower. Is there more upside from that? How do you build that with respect to awareness and guidelines and the like?
Andrew Dickinson
executiveYes, there is -- I mean the -- it's a good question. I mean the market share in Europe is still very high, and it's still the leading regimen in almost all major markets for treatment and in many for switch. But there is more competition in Europe, and the European market is a little more price sensitive. So Biktarvy in most markets is priced at a premium to some of the competitive products. We think it's justified by its profile. So it's doing really well in Europe and Asia, but there is a little bit more of a competitive dynamic, especially when you're kind of looking at price-sensitive markets. But it should continue to grow over time. I mean the other thing that we should say about the HIV treatment business kind of maybe transitioning to what comes next is that we have 9 programs in clinical development for treatment that will be next-generation HIV therapies. 8 of those 9 are long-acting therapies. So those are once-weekly pill alternatives, maybe eventually once monthly pills, that's not what those should be coming in the coming years, but we're not quite there yet. And then injectables that are either every 3 months or every 6 months and the target is to have subcutaneous injections. So these 9 programs. Of the 9 programs that are in the clinic, some of them are advancing. 2 of them are moving into Phase III studies. We expect to have at least 4 launches of new HIV therapies for treatment by the end of the decade. Those should all drive continued growth in our franchise. And again, they're not to replace Biktarvy. Biktarvy is such a great product, as we said, but they can -- there are certain patients that would benefit from having other options. You've seen that historically in this space, and we think we'll offer that. So there is potential for us. Even though 72% of patients in the United States that are treated for HIV are on a Gilead regimen, we think we can grow that again over time, especially with some of these new launches.
Geoffrey Meacham
analystAnd it's not a one-size-fits-all though when you think about long-acting with lenacapavir being the anchor asset in many of our long-acting regimens for treatment. What do you think could be the preferred other mechanism or dosing frequency.
Andrew Dickinson
executiveYes. It's a great question. So again, maybe just to step back for those of you that don't follow us as closely. Lenacapavir is a novel oral HIV therapy that was approved for treatment in the most difficult to treat HIV patients. So this is a capsid inhibitor and patients that have developed resistance broadly now have this available as a therapy. It is an incredibly potent molecule. So the existing approved formulation of lenacapavir is an every 6-month subcutaneous injection that can be used with other therapies that the physician chooses. We are developing multiple combinations, as Geoff, was alluding to, of different formulations of lenacapavir. It can be formulated as a pill. It could be formulated as a once weekly pill, a once monthly pill. It could be formulated as in every 3 month or every in 6-month subcutaneous injection. The key for treatment, and I'll come to prevention in a second, but the key for treatment is finding at least one other agent to pair with it that is equally potent. And that's -- those are the 9 programs that I alluded to earlier, all of those are looking for partner agents with lenacapavir. So it really is -- the market is different for people living with HIV there are people that like the pills and really don't want an injection. So even if you had an every 6-month subcutaneous regimen, that they could get a simple injection at the same frequency that they tend to see their doctor every year. They would prefer to take a pill either every day like Biktarvy or every week or every month if those are made available. So long term, just to your question, we see at least half, if not more, and it could be substantially more, but at least half of the HIV market in the treatment setting, moving the long-acting therapies over time. And again, we would expect to have at least 4 new launches, 3 of which should be long-acting therapies, if not more between now and the end of the decade and more to come after that. So each patient living with HIV or person living with HIV may have a different preference. But overall, roughly half of the market should go to long-acting over the coming years.
Geoffrey Meacham
analystAnd Andy, you mentioned the PrEP setting the prevention setting. So you guys have been successful with Descovy and then previously Truvada but lenacapavir also could be a very viable regimen. Maybe -- and the data are going to come out end of the year. So walk us through kind of that as a meaningful event for Gilead. But then the commercial piece of it kind of help bridge that gap?
Andrew Dickinson
executiveSure. A lot of people don't know the HIV prevention market, again, Gilead pioneered this with our first approval of Truvada for prevention over a decade ago now, if I remember correctly. And the market has grown at a much higher rate than the HIV treatment market. So 3 -- roughly 3 to 4 years ago now when Truvada went generic, we had 2 approved products, Truvada and Descovy for HIV prevention. They are both once daily pills. And it was roughly $2 billion in sales at that time for us. The market has continued to grow significantly at north for a period of time, north of 20% more recently in the teens. In the first quarter, the HIV market year-over -- HIV prevention market year-over-year grew at 11%. So significant growth in the HIV prevention market. The challenge in prevention is that even though the data shows that these pills are 99-plus percent effective at preventing the transmission of HIV if you're at risk of getting HIV, people at risk of getting HIV tend not to take the pills on a daily basis. They will take them intermittently. So you don't see the efficacy that you could see. This is why lenacapavir as a single agent, every 6-month injection it's so important as the potential to really be the first therapy that can make a significant dent in the growth of the HIV epidemic over time. So we have 2 Phase III studies running. There's a lot more follow-on studies running. PURPOSE 1, the first of the 2 Phase III studies reads out later this year in the second half. PURPOSE 2 reads out either later this year or early next year. We expect approval of lenacapavir as an every 6-month subcutaneous injection for prevention at some point in 2025. And then to your question, Geoff, I mean this is an enormous market opportunity from our perspective. When you think about the people at risk globally for HIV infection. In the United States alone, the CDC defines about 1.2 million people being at risk of getting HIV, but it's a very narrow definition. The CDC only looks at men having s** with men and IV drug users. There is a dramatically higher number of people in the United States that have multiple sexual partners or that are diagnosed every year with a sexually transmitted disease. If you look at the market that way, the opportunity over the long run in PrEP is really large. So we talk about the opportunity for lenacapavir and PrEP to be Biktarvy like over the long run. It's a significant opportunity if we do it right. We will, of course, segment it and focus first on the people that are already on PrEP that should logically move over to this therapy that gives them the insured, assuming the data reads out the way that we expect protection for 6 months and then expand the market from there.
Geoffrey Meacham
analystPerfect. Okay. And then let's switch gears and talk oncology. So Trodelvy in breast cancer has been commercially very successful therapy. Before we get into the investments in the pipeline on the back of it, so give us kind of the -- what's driven the past couple of years and then look forward just on the core indications?
Andrew Dickinson
executiveSure. So Trodelvy is an antibody drug conjugate that targets TROP2. It's a really important antigen that's preserved and you see in most solid tumors. We acquired Trodelvy from a company called Immunomedics, I think it was roughly 4 years ago now, a large M&A transaction. And the drug is approved for 3 solid tumors, 2 in breast cancer, triple-negative breast cancer, where it's the absolute standard of care in second line plus hormone receptor positive, HER2-negative breast cancer and later lines and bladder cancer. We are also studying it in lung cancer and other cancers, including endometrial cancer. So this is a therapy that over a long period of time, has the potential to be used in many solid tumors. And we have a broad development program underway. Later this year, we're going to have 2 more sets of Phase III data. One is in first-line triple-negative breast cancer. And on the earlier set that's coming either later this half or early next half, it's a confirmatory study in second-line bladder cancer. So Trodelvy, just to -- back to your question in terms of the potential, it's $1 billion of sales today. It's very early in its life cycle. There's a lot of debate and discussion about the competitive landscape in breast cancer and lung cancer. I think it's fair to say that we believe that despite the competition, we have a great molecule with very significant opportunity to grow over time, not only in improved indications, but the indications that we're studying it in, including lung cancer.
Geoffrey Meacham
analystAnd Andy, when we look at the TROP2 as a mechanism, you mentioned a few tumors. Help us with kind of the breadth of where TROP-2 could go or where the modality could take you with respect to, obviously, long is one, but...
Andrew Dickinson
executiveYes. Long is the biggest. But when you look across, I mean, there's all these great studies that kind of look at tumor antigens across all the solid tumors, TROP2 really stands out as one of the primary antigens that's expressed on the vast majority of solid tumors. And of course, it depends -- it's different from tumor type to tumor type. It's also different probably from patient to patient because we're gaining experience and looking at it. The other thing I would say here is that our construct, there is a competitive construct, our construct is unique in that we have a much higher binding affinity to TROP-2 than the other molecule that's also in late stage, the other construct that's in late-stage clinical development, which means you might be able to show significant efficacy with less TROP-2 expression given the binding affinity. So again, and ADCs are very complex therapies. You're talking about all these things with an antibody with the chemotherapy attached to it. So there's a lot of different variables that go into what makes an ADC work well and people are still elucidating that. But every which way we look at this construct, we think it gives us a chance to work not only in breast cancer and bladder cancer, but also lung cancer, endometrial, I mentioned, and then depending on kind of the data over the coming years, we could go further with it. We certainly will go up in lines of therapy, Geoff, in the approved indications, and we'll also look at combination alternatives. So if you -- in lung cancer, for instance, we're also studying a TIGIT antibody in lung cancer. If TIGIT ends up being a mechanism that provides a meaningful benefit to patients, of course, we've already started exploring combinations of TIGIT with Trodelvy as well. So a lot of ways to win over the coming years and a very long patent life and expected life cycle for Trodelvy as well.
Geoffrey Meacham
analystLet's talk about TIGIT in just a second, but I want to close with Trodelvy and lung and talk through kind of what reminded investors of what you guys saw recently? And then what we may see at the upcoming ASCO meeting with respect to subgroups from EVOKE-01.
Andrew Dickinson
executiveSure. So there are a number of data sets with Trodelvy that will be presented at ASCO. The 2 most important are the EVOKE-01 data set, which was a Phase III study of Trodelvy in second-line lung cancer head-to-head against Docetaxel. And what we've reported at top line, you'll see the full data set, and we can have a more robust discussion. While we didn't hit the primary endpoint in the study of showing a benefit in overall survival, we did see a very clear and significant trend in patients that did not progressed and didn't do well essentially on PD-1 therapies. So the patients that didn't respond to PD-1 or progressed from PD-1s, when you looked at them -- and this is a large set of patients. We're talking about 45% to 55% of patients in second-line lung. You see a sizable response and a meaningful benefit relative to the standard of care. So you'll see that data, and we'll be able to discuss it more openly. Obviously, we're in the process, as we've said historically, of working with regulatory bodies on discussing the data and trying to figure out whether there's a path forward. We may have to run another study in that patient population, but it's going to take a while for us to work through all the data talk to KOLs. But that's a big opportunity in the second line. And again, even if you're talking about roughly half of the second line in non-small cell lung cancer, it's a really sizable opportunity. There's not a lot for patients in that setting. As you know, I mean, once patients in non-small cell lung cancer progress through PD-1 therapies, there are not a lot of great options. And that's why we and other companies have spent so much time over the last many years working on new therapies. So you're starting to see some encouraging signs, and we'll be able to kind of talk about it more comprehensively. On the EVOKE-02 study, this is a basket study that we -- and we will have additional data in frontline non-small cell lung cancer patients. We'll also have some other tumor type data that we'll continue to look at. That's a study that is still -- has been on for years, and we'll keep going as we look at different segments of patients, including in first-line non-small cell lung cancer. So you'll see more of the cohort A data, which is, if I remember correctly, the PD-L1 high first-line non-small cell lung cancer patients. You'll see more of that data at ASCO as well that's exciting. And then we have a whole wealth of data with our partner, Arcus on the TIGIT as well.
Geoffrey Meacham
analystOf course, yes. Yes. And just on TIGIT. I mean, there's only -- there's a number of them out there. But how does Gilead kind of view differentiation? I know you have a combination with the PD-1. But if, let's say, in the next several years, you have KEYTRUDA face an LOE, describe kind of Gilead's differentiation, investment in TIGIT and maybe how it could potentially be used to mix and match really no matter what the PD-1 backbone is.
Andrew Dickinson
executiveSure. Yes. We have an important partnership with a company called Arcus. It's a small mid-cap company based in the Bay Area close to us, that covers a number of molecules. One of them is a TIGIT antibody called Dom is our short form name for it. It's in a number of studies, including in lung cancer. And it's differentiated from the other late-stage TIGIT antibodies in that the Fc region of the antibody is null or not functional. The result, the theory has been, you could see better side effect profile. We believe that when you look at the wealth of TIGIT data across the late-stage companies that are working in it that TIGIT is clearly additive to PD-1 but the question -- so it's another immunotherapy that's additive to PD-1. The question that needs to be answered is how additive is it? Is it meaningful enough to be used broadly? And in what tumor types? And that's what we think will be elucidated over the coming years. There were some data recently from a competitor where they stopped the study in another tumor type, I think it was melanoma based on the side effect of their TIGIT potentially because of the Fc competent region, we'll see. But again, there are a lot of theoretical attributes and benefits of our TIGIT that we think are special and we have a lot of data coming over the next couple of years. We share all the costs of that 50-50 with Arcus roughly. So it's been a good partnership for us to develop a TIGIT and then have that opportunity on a more P&L efficient model. So -- but again, there's still risk in TIGIT and the time will tell whether there's a benefit. And if so, how big?
Geoffrey Meacham
analystFor Gilead, you have ADCs from the Immunomedics deal, but you now also have from years ago from the Kite acquisition, significant resources and a franchise in cell therapy. Talk a little bit about how strategically important that franchise is to Gilead from a Yescarta perspective, then we can get into kind of anito-cel and next-gen.
Andrew Dickinson
executiveSure. Yes. No, it's a great point. I mean the cell therapy business is really important to us. So we acquired a company called Kite in Los Angeles now 6 years ago. They were 1 of the 2 or 3 companies that was pioneering CAR T therapies in hematology. We are clearly -- Kite is clearly the world's leader in cell therapy today. We have $2 billion of sales and growing. CAR T is really just starting to be used broadly outside of the United States. It's a pioneering therapy with incredible clinical data. I mean, again, just for those of you that aren't familiar with it, this is taking a patient -- so if a patient has a type of lymphoma, taking their T cells, separating them, putting a new gene in that expresses a receptor that identifies the cancer. When you -- you grow up these cells, you reinfuse them. They attack the cancer. And after 5 years, 43% of patients in this late-stage lymphoma that were almost certain to die within weeks or months before they got this therapy appear to be cured. I mean it's remarkable clinical data. And it helps explain why there's so much excitement for cell therapy, not only in oncology and especially hematology but also in areas like I&I today. There's been a lot of -- so I mean the business is doing great. We have 3 global manufacturing centers, which I think really differentiates us, Geoff, as you know. We have a 14-day turnaround time in our manufacturing from when we take a patient's cells and we deliver it back to the patient for reinfusion. We have excess capacity in our manufacturing centers. That's been a real bottleneck for the other competitors in the space. It's not only being able to manufacture it, but when we do it in 14 to 17 days, depending on how you're calculating it, many of our competitors are doing and are trying to do it in 35, 40, 45 days. And remember, many of these patients can't wait that long. They oftentimes have explosive disease when they're at that point. So the Kite team has done an incredible job of executing. Again, it's $2 billion in sales and growing. The gross margin has improved significantly over the last 6 years since we acquired Kite, and we have a great manufacturing team that is always working on improving -- streamlining the manufacturing process, shortening it, taking costs out of the system, we expect that, that will continue over time. And then on top of it, we have this partnership with another Bay Area company called Arcellx on anito-cel, which is a BCMA CAR T that has some really extraordinary Phase I/II data in multiple myeloma. We'll have the final readout of that data or an updated much bigger data set of data on that from that iMMagine-1 study later this year. We're already working with them and they just announced last week that the Phase III design for the iMMagine-3 study in multiple myeloma. So that's a really exciting opportunity because the data today to date for anito-cel suggest that you not only see the efficacy that you see in the currently approved leading BCMA CAR T, we're not seeing any of the side effects that you see from that therapy. So from that therapy, 8, 10-plus percent of patients appear to have significant neurological side effects like [ Parkinsonsism ] type disease, that seems to be lasting, and we're not seeing any of that in our studies yet. So if that holds through, it's a pretty exciting development for us, for Arcellx and for patients.
Geoffrey Meacham
analystAnd Andy, can you speak to the manufacturing as a strategic asset? When you think about anito-cel and the potential to pretty rapidly, you already started Phase III as where you're going to, but then looking beyond that commercially.
Andrew Dickinson
executiveYes. So really, it's a great question. I should have mentioned that. Part of what we also announced last week is that we finished the tech transfer with Arcellx of anito-cel from their prior manufacturing platform to ours, which is great for both companies because it really accelerates. As I said, we have world-leading manufacturing centers. These are large centers in 3 major global markets, L.A., Maryland on the East Coast and the Netherlands that could serve the global market. We purposely built them up to have excess space to build out an excess capacity that we can very capital efficiently expand into overtime. And that's exactly what we're doing with Arcellx. So it's a huge benefit for ourselves because many of the companies trying to operate in this market manufacturing is by far the biggest challenge in terms of both the capital required to build it out, which we've already have done and the technical know-how in terms of doing it. So it's something that we really bring to the table. And so maybe, Geoff, where you're going is when we acquired Kite, part of the plan and the thesis was that we could become the partner of choice for other cell therapy companies, and that's exactly what we're seeing today. So we can add other partners over time when we see therapies that we think like anito-cel are really differentiated and best-in-class add them and create a win-win situation for our partner and Gilead and patients with our incredible manufacturing know-how and technologies.
Geoffrey Meacham
analystWell, in myeloma as well, I mean it's one of the larger liquid tumors that very intensely competitive. You have a competitor who is capacity constrained, so that underscores kind of the value for Gilead. But what does success look like, Andy, when you think about the end of the year and the refractory data, how do you think in myeloma, you mentioned tolerability is one point of differentiation, but that's not the only.
Andrew Dickinson
executiveYes. I mean I think success -- look, when we did the deal with a partnership with Arcellx, success to us at a minimum looks like being as good as the market-leading BCMA cell therapy today. And we certainly see both from efficacy and safety that we're on track towards that. Obviously, we need the Phase III data to read out. We do with -- the data that's reading out later this year, we have the potential and the expectation for an accelerated approval in late line, fourth line plus multiple myeloma. So you have the potential for an early approval and you have the new study iMMagine-3 that would be in the earlier line patients that we would work through as quickly as possible, and we expect we'll enroll pretty quickly, given how much excitement there is for the program. But what success looks like as being at least as good if not better. And if you're better, the opportunity is even bigger. But again, you said it. I mean the competitors cannot satisfy the demand from the market today. We don't expect that to change over time. And when you add our manufacturing know-how with this great product, we think it could substantially lift the revenues over time. Maybe the other way to think about it is multiple myeloma is almost twice as big as our approved indications in terms of market potential. So you think about our $2 billion market today that's still growing and has a long way to go in lymphoma, multiple myeloma is a much bigger opportunity for CAR T. And then you start thinking about things like the autoimmune conditions for CAR T over time, it's a pretty exciting space to be a leader in.
Geoffrey Meacham
analystAnd so on the topic in lymphoma, when you think about the success of Yescarta and it likely will apply to myeloma. The -- I guess, the commercial kind of piece, the unmet need still in some of these markets, not just manufacturing, but just the awareness. And so I think one of the things we recently went to your manufacturing tour in Maryland. And you talked a lot about the Tennessee Oncology and the onboarding in the community setting of using cell therapies more broadly, walk through that and how that could be a model going forward with other and other community settings for commercial cell therapy.
Andrew Dickinson
executiveYes. The treatment market for these hematological cancers is roughly split 80-20. 80% of the patients are in the community, 20% are in the large academic centers, large city hospitals that are currently using CAR T. So when you -- again, when you think about our $2 billion a year in sales today that is growing, that's really limited almost exclusively to these large academic centers and large city hospitals. The key for patients and for CAR T overall is getting CAR T to the patients that need it in the community over time. And it's harder to do that. Many of the community oncology practices, even the larger ones don't have a, research centers. They're not used to the reimbursement model here. So we've started and the team -- the Kite team has done a great job of working a number of these large community centers, but Tennessee Oncology was really the first, where we worked with them to create a blueprint on how to bring CAR T to the community that then we can learn from revise as needed and move more broadly. And so we're making progress. It's not going to happen overnight. It's going to take some time, but it's critically important for these patients that would really benefit from CAR T and for the business over time. The other thing to say is when we acquired Kite, we expected that this would be a business that would grow steadily for decades as physicians and the market became used to kind of CAR T and adopted it more broadly, and that's exactly what we're seeing. So the learning curve, so to speak, and kind of the build-out phase is long, but so is the product life cycle. It's very hard to envision, as you know, having biosimilars of these cell therapies given how incredibly difficult they are to design and manufacture. So we have a long way to kind of invest in this community build out and get these therapies to the patients that need them in the community. But good progress. And again, a lot of lessons learned from that first build-out that we can now apply to the next set of large community treatment groups that we'll work with.
Geoffrey Meacham
analystYes. And then in the final minute, we talked about HIV. We talked about heme/onc. So moving to liver disease and with the CymaBay deal, talk a little bit about that in the context of the next leg of growth for -- another leg of growth for Gilead and then maybe just BD and how you think about that going forward?
Andrew Dickinson
executiveSure. We acquired a company earlier this year called CymaBay, which has a product that has been filed for approval in the U.S. and Europe for PBC, which is a liver condition. It's really an inflammatory condition. So this will be a significant inflammation I&I product for us that happens to be in liver disease, where we already are the world's leader in terms of commercializing our viral hepatitis products. So we serve -- we cover 80% of the physicians that would treat these patients. This is a large orphan disease. So I think of it like pulmonary hypertension about 130,000 patients in the U.S. with PBC, 125,000 in Europe and a really strong clinical data. So the -- and the drug showed not only a benefit on all the markers of kind of liver injury that you use in these studies, but also on pruritus, which is this incredible itching that these patients get is like life changing. They can't sleep at night. It causes significant mental distress to these patients because they want to itch uncontrollably. This drug was the first to really show a significant benefit in itch. So we expect that to be kind of part of the label. So the PDUFA date in the United States is August. This is something that should be breakeven to our EPS next year slightly dilutive this year and then significantly accretive in '26 and beyond. And to your question on BD, it gives you pretty good insight on kind of how we think about BD going forward. This is a little over a $4 billion purchase price for a late-stage asset with significant both revenue growth and EPS accretion. We expect to do deals like this every 2 to 3 years on average. And we'll continue to do ordinary course BD licensing, but this gives you a really good sense of kind of where we are and where we're focused. Very excited about the approval and the launch of that product.
Geoffrey Meacham
analystPerfect. Well, thank you, Andy, for conversation...
Andrew Dickinson
executiveThank you for having us. Appreciate it.
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