Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
September 7, 2023
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Peter Christiansen
analystGood morning, and welcome to Day 2 of Citi's Global Tech Conference. My name is Pete Christiansen, I'm with Citi's Payments Processors and IT Services team. Real happy to have Amex Global Travel with us today, CEO Paul Abbott, Karen Williams, who recently took on the role of CFO. Welcome both. Great to have you.
Paul Abbott
executiveThank you. Good morning.
Peter Christiansen
analystGood morning. So I think maybe we'll start -- let's talk about the overall demand environment, how you see kind of like the growth algorithm evolving over the next few quarters, then we'll get more into like product platform, that kind of stuff, and there's maybe some strategic initiatives beyond that. It's been an interesting year for sure, and the recovery from the pandemic still continues. And now that we think that the first half of this year is past us, you've done exceptionally well. I would say that you still have the travel recovery momentum going on. It sounds like a real solid sales pipeline with new wins, $2.3 billion of TTV just over the last 12 months, continued penetration of that unmanaged SME segment, which we know is such a core part of the growth algorithm longer term. Egencia synergies, which are still manifesting and obviously improving operating leverage. How do you -- now that we're getting into kind of like this transition period coming off of the recovery, how do you feel about the growth algorithm in the medium term and how that is going to evolve from here?
Paul Abbott
executiveYes. Well, look, thank you for referencing some of those stats in the question there. It's been -- really very pleased with the second quarter. I mean we thought there were a number of important proof points there. We obviously exceeded the consensus on EBITDA, which is very important. But we've delivered that margin expansion, returned to positive free cash flow and also raised our guidance for the full year. So it's nice to have a strong first half of the year behind us. In terms of how we sort of sustain that growth going forward, the foundation of that is obviously making sure our retention rates are really high and that we're gaining share. And you mentioned some of these stats, and both of those are in really good shape. Customer retention is very, very stable. We announced $3.4 billion of new wins at the end of the second quarter. That's the sort of last 12 months up to the end of Q2. Within that, and very importantly, we announced record wins in the SME segment and also 30% of those SME wins coming from the unmanaged segment, which is this very large $600 billion fragmented opportunity. So the foundation of it is making sure that our retention is really high and the new wins and the share gains are really, really strong. I think we feel really good about that. I think as you look forward, I mean there's definitely some moderation in growth rates this year. I mean Q1, we had 60% revenue growth because we were growing over Omicron. Q2 was 22%, and we've guided to kind of double-digit growth on revenues for the second half of the year. So you are seeing, obviously, a normalization of growth rates because this time last year, we did see a big pickup in demand post labor. So obviously, we're now growing over a much higher level of demand that existed last year. So I think, yes, you are seeing a more normalized level of growth. I think your question about looking forward into '24, we're not sort of ready to land on its '24 number yet. But the way we think about it is the net new wins and the share gains is pretty clear. We can see 80% of that already. And we know we're going to get 4, 5 points from net new ends next year. So the question is how much gas is left in the tank on recovery and what are the macroeconomic conditions going to give us. And business travelers consistently growing at or above GDP, and I think you still have some room in the tank for recovery. And I think we just -- we're going to know more about what that looks like probably 90, 120 days from now once we get through this period, how much more growth are we going to get from GDP and how much more growth are we going to get from the continued recovery.
Peter Christiansen
analystI do want to get into some of the components of still, the recovery going on, talk about that a little bit. Obviously, SME has been fantastic. [ GMN ] still sounds quite robust, nicely at win, really good financial services company you signed recently. That's great to hear. Can you talk a little bit on that side, how you feel about the sales pipeline and why are you winning with large enterprise clients at this point in time, do you think?
Paul Abbott
executiveYes. Look, I think it's a segment we already have a very strong position. But I think customer needs are changing in that segment, and I think customers are looking for a much more digital experience, a much better digital experience. Owning our own software platforms and Neo and Egencia gives us a significant advantage there over many of our competitors who don't own their own software platforms. So definitely, that increased focus on digital and the traveler and the decision-maker experience is a real plus for us. Customers are also looking for ways to travel more responsibly, more sustainably, and we built out a suite of sustainability solutions for customers. Customers are also very focused on privacy, cybersecurity, making sure that their suppliers are operating to the highest level of standards. And we actually operate to the very highest level of compliance standards. We're actually governed as a bank holding company because of Amex's shareholding in the company. And so we operate to the highest possible levels of compliance and control, and that's very important to a lot of our large clients. And then the final piece is there's much more focus on this kind of integration of software and services. And that's been a big part of our strategy to make sure that we offer not just the leading software, but the leading services, we integrate them better than anyone else. And then we deliver them, proven at scale on a global basis. And many of these global customers do business with us in 50, 60, sometimes even 100 markets. So the increased focus on those areas has actually, I think, really played to our strengths. And so we feel good about our position in that segment. I think we'll continue to gain share.
Peter Christiansen
analystYes. I would imagine at the large enterprise level, switching costs may be a bit challenging for people to change vendors. So you really do have to win on value proposition. It is -- and enterprise spending has obviously been going through some changes lately. Cost saves are part of that. Is it efficiency? Or is it really like, hey, this is just a much better experience, user experience and that or just poor service levels at maybe some of your competitors?
Paul Abbott
executiveI would say the focus on price is the same or less than it was 2 or 3 years ago because of the factors that I just mentioned. Customers are now much, much more focused on more digital, more governance, more control, better traveler experience and making sure that they have the right solutions to deliver on their sustainability goals. Those things have really dialed up. Now of course, price is always an important component, but our fees are 1% to 2% of their total travel budget. So when we talk about price, these customers may be procuring $300 million, $500 million, even $1 billion of travel spend. And so how we can help them get savings on that total travel spend is a critical part of it. But our fees are a relatively small part of that overall metric. So of course, it's a factor in any large procurement, but it has not become more of a factor over these last few years. I would say if anything, it's dialed down a little bit.
Peter Christiansen
analystPivoting to SME, where you're seeing similar trends there. Super interesting, only 30% of the $1 trillion opportunity, sorry, managed today. You put up 15% transaction growth last quarter, half of that from new wins. What's getting some of these unmanaged businesses kind of over the hump saying, "Hey, I do need a reputable service provider for our travel needs. Let's go to Amex GBT. What's driving some of that demand there?
Paul Abbott
executiveYes. I think unmanaged specifically, the value proposition is really simple and really, really strong. If you have a company and your travelers are going to supplier direct to OTAs, generally, those companies don't have any visibility or control over their full travel spend. They're not able to influence those buying choices. They don't even have visibility for their total spend. So spending for a company, do you actually want to know how much you spend on variable. And do you want to have some influence over controlling that is, well, yes. But they want to do that in a really simple and easy way. So if you might move them on to platform like Egencia, it has a very consumer-centric, OTA-like feel, but you can build in all of the policy controls very easily. So being able to move to a managed control program is very simple now. And then if you say, well, you're going to the supplier direct or you're going to OTAs, most SME and unmatched customers don't have any of their own negotiated rates. 40% of the time, SME customers are using our own negotiated content, our own negotiated fares. So that delivers significant savings. So you're getting control, you're getting savings and then it's service. With all due respect to all my friends and the suppliers and the OTAs, the service levels are just nowhere near the levels of service that we provide. Now the support that we provide to travelers on the road, whether that's through our voice chat or whether that's through our mobile app, chat with like travel counselors 24/7, it's just a much, much higher level of service. So honestly, selling customers on to a managed program is actually not difficult. Do you want more control or do you want more visibility, do you want more savings and you want better service, and that's what we deliver.
Peter Christiansen
analystThat's interesting. I do want to talk a little bit about international growth. Obviously, a big component of the glide path over the next couple of quarters. I believe Asia Pac was up 11% year-over-year last quarter, and that's an area where we know that capacity is still on its -- the trajectory is still recovering from those levels. How should we think about the glide path in Asia Pac specifically for Amex GBT there? What's the runway looking like from your point of view? .
Paul Abbott
executiveYes. Look, I think some of that year-over-year growth, I think APAC was 23%. I think Europe and U.S. were 11%. So -- but you're right, the APAC was definitely outsized growth. But some of that is because the recovery kind of happened later. So you've got a little bit of year-over-year tailwind. But having said that, the absolute recovery rate is now ahead in APAC, and we do believe that is set to continue. Markets like India for us are already back above 2019. We're seeing more capacity going into those markets, more aircraft orders coming in from those markets. So yes, we do believe that Asia Pacific will continue to outpace the broader industry over the next 2 to 3 years. That's certainly part of our plan.
Peter Christiansen
analystOne of the things that does come up from time to time, and who knows what's going to happen with, I guess, COVID and how it evolves over the next years, years or so. But it could be another issue, although some believe it could just be the flu. But if we were to hit another COVID level or some fraction of that, how do you think the company is positioned in terms of levers you can pull, in terms of balance sheet strength compared to where we were when the COVID-19. Maybe Karen can give a view on that one, touch on those things.
Karen Williams
executiveYes, sure. You've touched on the momentum and how we're feeling positive. But to your point, I think there's a couple of proof points. The first is if you look back as much as we don't want to look back to COVID and continue to talk about COVID, it's nearly 4 years on. But if you look back to that time, we were able to take 50% of our cost base out. So that shows the flexibility in terms of our model. You then think about our cost base, and 50% of our cost base is essentially cost of sales. I think traveler care, travel counselors, our meetings and events business, and 70% of that is variable. So holistically, as you look at our cost base, 40% variable cost base, which gives us the levers to pull. I think the other point I would make is just your point around the balance sheet and how we're feeling. Certainly from a cash perspective, it was a pivotal point for us in Q2 when we talked about positive free cash flow. And so we're feeling very good about the momentum there.
Peter Christiansen
analystYou know what, let's jump right into that part. I think that's really important to highlight. We have full TTV recovery versus 2019 levels, certainly remains on track for your longer-term targets. And you certainly appear to be tracking ahead of the pre-IPO outlook as it relates to EBITDA margins and free cash flow conversion, as you just mentioned, Karen. A big part of that story, obviously, is operating leverage, synergy gains. Can you give us an update on potential EBITDA margin, free cash flow conversion levels, where -- if we were to hit full recovery levels or same volume levels, has that outlook changed in any way versus what was prescribed?
Karen Williams
executiveYes. So I guess -- so I think there's 2 parts to this question. One is around the margin and how we're thinking about margin. The other is around free cash conversion. So as we think about the margin in Q2, we saw positive momentum, 18% margin, up significantly. As you think about guidance for the full year, we're really looking at about a 10-point improvement in terms of the margin. And as we look out, we've talked about that $500 million of adjusted EBITDA. It will be $2.4 billion in terms of revenue. That's a 21% margin when you do the math. And we've talked quite openly in terms of we think about the margin going forward in that low 20s to mid-20s. And the reason why we have that range is essentially one priority for us is investing in this business. There is still significant runway for growth for us, and it's really important that we continue to invest. So we want that lever to pull. Hence, that range there. But we feel really good about that. And certainly, the trajectory we're on. From a cash perspective, again, strong momentum in terms of where we come from. And certainly, as we think about really our point of arrival, we're looking at that 40% to 45% cash conversion.
Peter Christiansen
analystWow, that is impressive. And it's great that you are certainly on an accelerated glide path versus original expectations. I do want to dig a little bit back into some of the spending initiatives that you talked about. I mean spending efficiency has just been fantastic and it keeps on improving. Should we think of -- should investors think of some of those core investments? Are they investments for growth? Are they investments to increase continued spending efficiency? Do you see further room for synergies or opportunities there between some of the recent assets that you've acquired? If you could just give us an outline of how you're thinking about allocating OpEx and between -- on some of your core initiatives.
Karen Williams
executiveYes. Sure. So -- and again, I think there's 2 parts to this as I listen to the question. In terms of how we're thinking about allocating OpEx going forward, as I said, there's a huge runway for growth. And so the SME segment is really important to us. And as we think about sales and marketing channels, we will continue to invest there. Then as we think about software or technology and think about our platforms, Neo and Egencia, it's really important as we think from a customer experience and continuing to improve that customer experience. It's also important there that we are investing for growth. So they're really kind of 2 key areas, and obviously, M&A, we've talked about as well. On the other side of things, from a cost perspective, as we think about the cost, we remain focused. It's in our DNA in terms of this continuous improvement mindset. And I've talked about the margins. And there really is about automation. And so investing for automation.
Peter Christiansen
analystYes. I was just about to ask you about that, the investments in technology, and maybe you can harness some things there that can deliver some of these efficiencies.
Karen Williams
executiveYes, and digital adoption really key to us.
Peter Christiansen
analystThat's interesting. And I do want to talk a little bit more about the improvement in free cash flow conversion. A lot of that is working through some of the Egencia working capital issues there. Can you just take us through that progression there and how you've been able to make some improvements?
Paul Abbott
executiveMaybe can I just make one point on the AI before we go to that?
Peter Christiansen
analystSure. Absolutely.
Paul Abbott
executiveI think 1 of the really -- 2 interesting points around the automation opportunity. One is it's not a new skill for us. I mean we have a team of people that have been working on RPA and AI. Egencia's team has been recognized externally for machine learning and data-driven machine learning and AI. And you look at our digital adoption, we've moved it up to now 77% of our transactions are coming through digital channels and 60% of those are on our own software platforms. We bought a small company called 30SecondsToFly. They specialize in travel AI. So using automation to take cost out is something that we've been doing consistently for several years. And 40% of our costs sit in people costs that are still in that voice channel servicing customers. So that's $750 million, right? So the opportunity to now with generative AI and large language models to really accelerate the pace of change there and more of that cost out at an accelerated pace, it is an exciting opportunity for us. And as I said, it's something that -- it's building on existing capabilities that we have. So we've got a team working on various use cases to see how we can do that. So we look forward to maybe updating you and others about that in more detail in the months ahead. Sorry, Karen, back to you.
Peter Christiansen
analystNo. But no -- sorry, Karen, we'll get back to you. It's a super interesting point. We're hearing that from other companies, the opportunity in AI, particularly on call center kind of activities. I mean some companies say, "Hey, look, like 40% of our calls are to check out a ticket status, that kind of stuff. It's $10 a call, texting and those types of notification." So you see a lot of runway there.
Paul Abbott
executiveAbsolutely. That's exactly it. That's a muscle that we're working today. We look at the demand coming in through the voice channel, and we basically rank the demand that's coming in. And then we build out the features on the Egencia platform or the Neo platform to self-serve. And then we see that digital adoption rate go up. And the more that we move to the digital channels, the more that we improve our margins. So it's definitely a muscle that we have in the company, and it's -- but the opportunity now to do that just bigger and faster than we thought was possible is really, really interesting.
Peter Christiansen
analystThat's exciting. That is. All right, Karen, sorry. Back to you. Working capital, Egencia, can you just see that progression there? It seems like there was a lot of improvement there, whether you see that -- how do you see that glide path evolving from here?
Karen Williams
executiveYes, sure. So we've talked about $100 million of opportunity that we see from the Egencia side and really expect to probably recognize about 70% of that in '23. And really, the way to think about this is we're integrating Egencia into GBT. And so as we integrate, there is opportunity to be able to leverage kind of GBT practices. And so as we think about payment terms, as we then think about form of payment, so Egencia has more payments that are on accounts, on invoice. And so we see the opportunity to move to card, which creates a benefit. So we're feeling good about it. In Q2, we talked about the upside that we were seeing. From where we said we'd be approaching positive free cash flow, we were actually positive. And a lot of that really came back to the actions coming earlier in terms of some of those Egencia initiatives Playing through.
Peter Christiansen
analystPaul, this is your wheelhouse. So I'm tying together my fintech coverage here, B2B automated payments, obviously, a huge opportunity there, electronifying payments, straight-through processing, for -- is that an important value proposition, I guess, as you build out your feature set? Is it a client demand? Is it -- and where do you see, I guess, your client base in that penetration of automating their expense flows and payment flows?
Paul Abbott
executiveYes. I mean it varies by segment. We have, I mentioned earlier, a product called Neo1, and that is a spend management platform. So we actually sell that to small businesses to manage all of their indirect spend. And travel is one of the components. So it's actually a spend management to sell with travel embedded. So you punch out to the Neo travel platform. And we primarily acquire customers through digital channels and at the smaller end of SME. So that's one part. We also -- then our Neo platform is travel and expense. And so some customers just use Neo for the travel bookings, some use it will travel and the travel-related expenses. One of the opportunities for us is on Egencia to look at building out that expense capability on the Egencia platform. We're currently looking at opportunities to do that to make sure that we broaden out our travel and expense offerings. And then we have a very close working relationship with American Express, as you know. And we're obviously working with Amex on integrating their virtual card payments in order to create that sort of seamless end-to-end flow across travel expense and payments. So there's definitely some exciting initiatives that are underway in this area for those customers that want to procure that way. But to be honest, Pete, there are some customers who still want those to be very separate, independent procurement decisions. Travel is 1 decision, expense is a separate decision and payment is a separate decision. And so we want to make sure that we're able to have the leading proposition for each of those segments. I don't believe there's a one-size-fits-all approach.
Peter Christiansen
analystHow do you think about automation and expense management, especially on the B2B payments, which is a big focus for us here. On the travel supplier side, do you feel -- I mean, obviously, there's large brands there. But we all know that travel supply is incredibly fragmented. In terms of its maturity, do you think it's in a place right now that can really at least offer that capability to both SME and some of your larger enterprise clients?
Paul Abbott
executiveYes, I do. I think expense is a very, very fragmented market. Payments is obviously much more consolidated. So I think there's a different dynamic in expense versus payment. But there's certainly, I think, more and more customers looking at the overall process end to end, and that creates opportunities for us to bring those different solutions together for sure.
Peter Christiansen
analystI really do like some of these automation initiatives, B2B payments, but there's a whole host of other product enhancement feature functionality that you're working on. One of the things that caught my attention last quarter is obviously the chat service through Slack and how you can use other ways with AI to improve the user experience. But also, I'm sure it helps from a development point of view. I was just wondering if you could highlight some of those opportunities and how you see them evolving as potentially new features of the brand.
Paul Abbott
executiveThat's all about allowing customers to do business with us in their channel of choice, and it's all part of what we talked about earlier in terms of moving more and more demand to automated channels. So we actually have integration with WhatsApp. We have integration with Slack for some customers. We have integration with Google Chat. And so it's all about saying, let's make it easy for the traveler or the travel booker to effectively do business with us in their channel of choice. And that helps us take demand into lower-cost channels as well. And it's a better customer experience. And this is the critical thing for us. If you look at our metrics, we've moved up self-serve and digital adoption now from the sort of mid-60s right up into 77 last quarter. But our traveler satisfaction results are up, and our NPS results are up. And that is not the case with every company. Companies are forcing customers into channels and not delivering a great experience. And so the way we look at it is it's great to see those digital adoption numbers go up as long as customer satisfaction and NPS is going up. That's the critical balance.
Peter Christiansen
analystHow do you balance that, particularly on the enterprise side, where there's -- I'm sure there's a lot of demand for customized work. We hear that maybe the demand for customized solutions, for enterprise kind of solutions is kind of waning, going more standard, more open source, not open source, but at least more open client geared -- user geared. Are you seeing any tipping of the balance there, maybe enterprise stepping away from these customer -- complicated customized solutions and just going for more off-the-shelf straight up?
Paul Abbott
executiveI mean directionally, yes. I think more -- the fact that the platforms like Egencia, like Neo are highly configurable now. The necessity for sort of ground-up customization is becoming less and less. So I do think we are seeing a movement of customers towards more, let's say, configurable solutions, where the vast majority of their requirements can actually be met by a standard platform that they can configure. However, there are certain industries, mining, marine, offshore, government services, where there are -- pharma in some cases, there are real genuine bespoke needs that need to be met. So I think it's about trying to separate the customization that's necessary and adds value versus things that really can be configured in a standard platform. And the more that we add the configuration features into Neo and Egencia, I think the more that we'll see that transition.
Peter Christiansen
analystThat's great. I love hearing it when industries are evolving that way, leaving the user experience up to the pros. Absolutely. We had a really interesting conversation after last quarter's results, I thought, and it was about new distribution capacity, NDC, a new standard that the airlines are looking to add or who are embracing right now as it relates to offering ancillary content, all those things. Just what -- and we were talking about, well, is our ancillary services from some of the air carriers, is that really important for the business channel? Is it -- it seems like it's more of a retail or consumer kind of offering? What's the opportunity for Amex GBT when it comes to adopting NDC?
Paul Abbott
executiveYes. Well, NDC is a technical standard that gives airlines just more flexibility in how they retail their products and services. And so it has the potential to obviously create personalized offers, to add in ancillary services, whether it's lounge access or whether it's seat requests or meal requests into personalized packages. So it definitely has the capability to create more flexibility and add value. I think you're right in that for corporate customers that might need to be structured a little bit different than consumers direct. But it still does have the potential to create packages and personalized offers for Citi's travelers from a specific supplier. Now it's still -- it's pretty early stages. I think one of the GDS has said in their results that NDC transactions were still very low single digits globally, and that's certainly what we see. But it definitely has the potential to create value for customers. And the most important thing for us is to provide the most comprehensive and the most competitive content to customers, and NDC is part of that and will be a growing part of that. So we must have the technical capability to be able to deliver NDC content, and that's what we're doing right now. And I mentioned it in Q2. We have over 1,500 companies now on our pilots using NDC. We have that with 4 different airlines in 4 different countries. And our suppliers tell us that no other travel management company is delivering as many NDC bookings as we are. And so I think we are -- we feel good about our position. The fact that we own our own software platforms in Neo and Egencia means that we've got engineers that can actually work with the supplier APIs and integrate that content into the platform. And our platforms like Egencia have their own order management system, so it makes it much, much easier to integrate that third-party content. So look, it's an area where we want to make sure that we have the capability to grow as it grows and make sure our customers always get the most competitive and the most comprehensive content that's out there. That's a major part of our value proposition.
Peter Christiansen
analystI want to merge tech features, functionality, innovation at Amex GBT with some capital allocation questions. While we were researching our question set here, we're scanning through some of the -- your competitors and some of their releases and digging into their stuff. And it seems like your feature set, your technology and some of the strides that you've been making, it seems like you are pulling away from the pack more and more. Does it -- from building scale perspective now, does it make sense to acquire scale? Or I mean it seems like you're naturally winning share anyway. How do you think about that trade-off in your -- when you're thinking about M&A? Is it worth it to buy scale at this point? .
Paul Abbott
executiveI guess coming back to your first point, I think we -- our strategy is to have the best technology and the best people, and to integrate that better than anyone else and to do it at scale globally, proven at scale globally. Leadership in technology, leadership in software and leadership in services at scale. It's not easy to have a leadership position in the software solutions, which I believe we do with Neo and Egencia. It's actually really difficult to have a leadership position in all of the global services that are required, proven at scale. So integrating those things and delivering them on a global basis is really our strategy. And our primary focus is making sure we use that to drive significant organic growth and to continue to gain share. But this is a very large fragmented market. We're the market leader. We're about 40% bigger than our nearest competitor, but we have $30 billion of $1.2 trillion. So there is a very fragmented market out there, and there are definitely opportunities to add scale and add capabilities. And that's an important part of our strategy. We've done 9 transactions since the creation of the joint venture in 2014. The 2 larger transactions people are obviously familiar with in HRG and in Egencia, very accretive transactions, delivering significant synergies and delivering significant value to customers. So yes.
Peter Christiansen
analystNo, you've surely proven that. I think we have time for 1 more because we started a little bit late. Outside of these capability tuck-ins, outside of acquiring scale. And I'd love to hear, first off, maybe what are some capabilities that you're thinking of or could be potentially opportunities. But how should we also think about adjacencies as well on TAM expansion?
Paul Abbott
executiveYes. I mean in terms of capabilities, we sort of touched on some of the areas. I think there's a lot of innovation happening within travel technology. And I think looking at capabilities that can ensure that you're always providing the leading content, very important. Looking at capabilities that can help us accelerate that automation journey that we talked about and that AI transformation we talked about, also an interesting opportunity. And there are also a lot of interesting activity in areas like meetings and events and sourcing, where there are some new capabilities that are emerging, which are also interesting. So definitely some good capability plays there. And we're obviously going to watch those areas really carefully.
Peter Christiansen
analystI want to -- one last one real quick. We talk to investors all the time who have focused on the travel recovery more broadly, not just in business travel, but consumer travel as well. And there's this belief like, okay, that trade's done, right? We're at that point. And it seems like Amex GBT is on -- should be considered a little bit separate from, I believe, that theme. It's a back-to-work play. It's also corporate is certainly lagging some consumer there as well. What would you say to investors who come across in that way, say, "Hey, look, the travel recovery trade is done, blah, blah, blah." And now looking at your valuation, which there could be some opportunity there. What are you saying to them in terms of, "Hey, it's not done. We still have great opportunities here. And by the way, we're growing organically through new wins, new clients. It's not just recovery alone. There's a lot of other tailwinds there?"
Paul Abbott
executiveYes. Well, hopefully, through this conversation, you can see we've got a lot of levers to deliver value. I mean, when I look out over the next 3 to 5 years, we want to be a top quartile B2B software and services company. That's essentially where we want to be. And that means consistently delivering quality earnings over that period of time. And delivering in excess of 15% TSR over that 3- to 5-year period, we believe, is a very achievable ambition. And that would put us in that portfolio of software and services company. So for us, it's not about the travel recovery play. We have, as I said before, $900 billion opportunity in SME, $600 billion of it's unmanaged. We've got $1.2 trillion of business travel spend. We've already got $30 billion of it. We have a massive runway of capability and scale M&A, and we have the opportunity to transform our cost base. And I think we've proven that we have the ability to do that. And if you look at Q2, there are proof points around all the things I just said. So yes, that's what I would say to investors. This will be a top quartile B2B services company over the next 3 to 5 years.
Peter Christiansen
analystYou have a good, elevated pitch. Very good. All right. Well, thank you so much, Paul, Karen. Great to have you. Looking forward to seeing more. Thank you so much.
Paul Abbott
executiveThanks a lot. Thanks, Pete. Enjoyed the conversation. Appreciate it.
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