Grafton Group plc (GFTU) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Grafton Full Year Results Presentation. I will briefly go through the highlights before handing over to David Arnold, our CFO, for the financial review. Full year adjusted operating profit pre-property was GBP 173.5 million, which was slightly ahead of analysts' expectation. It was a resilient performance despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop in many of our markets, notably in the U.K. and in Finland. I think our result was supported by our good geographic diversification across multiple markets, but also proactive cost mitigations, which were instigated very early on in order to counteract the inflationary pressures we had on the cost side. In terms of group development, we made really good progress, and we are very ambitious to do more. So we invested, as always, in our existing network of branches and we also organically opened 7 more branches across the estate. We entered the attractive and highly fragmented Spanish building material distribution market by acquiring a platform, Salvador Escoda in the HVAC sector. And we preserved our very strong balance sheet to continue to support the growth going forward. We had another year of excellent cash conversion and capital returns to shareholders. 100% of our adjusted operating profit converted into cash. We returned GBP 154.1 million to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. And we increased the final dividend for the full year by 2.8%. And we announced this morning another small share buyback program of GBP 30 million and that was really about our commitment last year to distribute the free cash flow to our shareholders. And we did better in free cash flow than expected, and therefore, distributed another GBP 30 million to the shareholders. David, over to you for the financial review.

Thank you, Eric, and good morning, everyone. Now this slide sets out the financial highlights and I'll pick up most of these items as we go through my presentation. But let me just make an initial comment around the dividend. Eric has already mentioned that we increased that by 2.8% or 37p per share. Now that equates to dividend cover of 1.9x. That's just under the lower end of our target range of 2x to 3x. But given the strength of our cash flow and where we are in the cycle, we feel that this is wholly appropriate. In the appendices, I've also included some technical guidance for 2025, which you may find helpful, and you'll also find that in the RNS as well. So turning first to the income statement and revenue of GBP 2.28 billion was 1.6% lower than in 2023. The group's adjusted operating profit pre-property profit of GBP 173.5 million was slightly ahead of expectations with the year-end finish being slightly better across all our businesses, but particularly supported by a strong performance in Ireland. Our operating margin pre-property profit was 7.6%, 120 basis points lower than in the prior year. Through a lot of hard work by our teams, particularly our commercial teams and against what was a challenging market backdrop in many of our markets, we were pleased to maintain gross margin at the group level at a similar level to the prior year. Against the headwinds of high underlying cost inflation in labor and in property costs, in particular, overheads were tightly controlled. And we were on the front foot in responding to the underlying trading conditions through actions that we'd set in train during 2023 and coming into 2024. Property profit in the year was GBP 4 million and that was GBP 2.7 million higher than in the prior year and was ahead of expectations. This increase was largely due to unrealized revaluation gains of GBP 3.2 million related to 2 investment properties in the U.K. and Ireland, the largest of which was in relation to a property retained from the disposal of Buildbase. Adjusted operating profit, including property profit, was GBP 177.5 million, 13.6% lower than in 2023. The group reported a net finance cost of GBP 0.1 million in the year and that reflected lower interest income on deposits as interest rates were cut in the second half of the year, and that was partially offset by a foreign exchange gain of GBP 1.6 million. The effective tax rate of 20% in the year was higher than the prior year's 19% and that was largely due to the increase in the U.K. rate of corporation tax to 25%, but also the introduction of the Pillar Two top-up tax rate of 15%. Adjusted earnings per share were 71.8p, 7.8% lower than in 2023. And the beneficial impact of our share buyback program resulted in a supportive effect on EPS relative to the decline of 13.6% in profit after tax. Let's now look at the movements in revenue for the year in comparison to last year. And the organic movement, I'll cover off in more detail in a moment. That saw the revenue decline by GBP 47 million, and that was entirely balanced off by the contribution from acquisitions revenue. The acquisitions revenue of GBP 47 million comprised of GBP 30 million for 2 months of trading from Salvador Escoda in Spain with the remainder coming on from bolt-on acquisitions, which we made in 2023 in Ireland, the U.K. and in Finland. The weakening of the euro against sterling during the year accounted for an exchange loss of GBP 37 million or 1.6% of the reported revenue decrease. This slide analyzes the decrease of GBP 47 million in organic revenue compared to last year on a constant currency basis. It should be noted that product price deflation, which negatively impacted revenue in our distribution businesses in Ireland and in the U.K. continued to moderate over the course of the second half. Our Irish distribution and retailing businesses saw increases in organic revenue. However, our distribution businesses in the U.K., the Netherlands and Finland saw a fall in revenue with the rate of decline easing in the second half of the year. Our manufacturing businesses also saw a decrease in organic revenue during the period due to a fall in demand in housebuilding activity and also weak RMI activity, but that decline also moderated in the second half. Net new branches across the group contributed incremental revenue of GBP 4 million. Turning to the movement in reported adjusted operating profit. This slide bridges from 2023 through to 2024. We'll look at the movement of the GBP 29.2 million in the profitability on the like-for-like business in more detail in a moment. But you can see that net new branches increased adjusted operating profit by GBP 0.2 million. Acquisitions added GBP 1.8 million, while that property profit was GBP 2.7 million higher. Foreign exchange transaction losses reported adjusted operating profit by GBP 3.5 million, reflecting that weaker euro against sterling. The acquisitions figure contains GBP 0.3 million of operating profit from Salvador Escoda for the last 2 months of the year. These are seasonally much less important trading months for the business with December traditionally being a loss-making month and that's due to the lower number of working days and the lower level of activity from our customers. The business did also experience some disruption from the floods in the Valencia region in November. Eric will talk in a little more detail about this business shortly, but I can say that we're really delighted to have Salvador Escoda on board and the integration is going well. Looking at the GBP 29 million movement in adjusted operating profit in the like-for-like business, you can see that the biggest component was the U.K. distribution businesses, which represented GBP 15.8 million of the total. We'll look at the individual business segments in a moment, but the overall picture is one of Ireland delivering improved profitability, and elsewhere, the geographies faced more challenging conditions. Moving on to look at those businesses in a little bit more detail and starting with our Irish distribution business. The overall construction market was broadly flat in 2024. Despite the firm objectives of the Irish Government to expand housing output and indeed with housing commencements surging to 69,000 last year, completions surprisingly declined by 6.7% to 30,000 homes. RMI demand remained relatively subdued, and infrastructure spend saw large projects being delayed or postponed. With its excellent market position and strong offering, Chadwicks delivered a positive trading performance with revenue of GBP 633 million, which was 3% higher in constant currency. Overall growth in average daily like-for-like sales of 1.6% in 2024 comprised volume growth of 4.6%, supported by a strong second half pick-up and product price deflation for the year of minus 3%. Adjusted operating profit of GBP 61.5 million increased by 3.6% on a constant currency basis, supported by strong gross margin growth, which was achieved through a number of factors, including a focused effort by the Chadwicks team on pricing at a branch level, the sell-through of aged inventory and a more stable environment for steel prices. Revenue in the U.K. distribution business was down 4.6% to GBP 781 million due to weakness in RMI demand, especially in London and the Southeast, which are the dominant markets for this business and where homeowners have been most affected by the impacts of inflation and higher mortgage costs on discretionary spending. Our Selco Builders Warehouse distribution business, which focuses exclusively on the RMI market, saw price deflation reduced to 1% in the second half of the year. And notably, timber prices trended positive in December 2024 for the first time since April 2023. The U.K. distribution gross margin was just slightly down in a very competitive market as our businesses have continued to maintain a strong value proposition for our customers. Despite inflationary pressure on costs, especially with respect to labor and property, overheads have been tightly controlled with increases in like-for-like overheads contained to 2%. Extensive cost reduction actions, particularly in Selco, were implemented in 2023 and 2024 to manage our cost base in line with the anticipated trading conditions. Adjusted operating profit was GBP 32.4 million with the operating margin 160 basis points lower than prior year at 4.2%. Leyland SDM opened new stores in South Kensington and Belsize Park in the second half with both stores trading well and performing ahead of plan. In the Netherlands, market conditions also remain challenging with a weaker RMI market and the newbuild market, which was impacted by constraints on planning and infrastructure. However, the outlook is improving with the first signs of recovery visible. Revenue of GBP 338 million was down by 1.3% on a constant currency basis in the year. And as a result of the weaker RMI market, branch revenue declined in almost all regions across the country. The gross margin was under pressure due to a weaker volume backdrop and a less favorable mix because of a larger proportion of lower margin, larger construction projects. The business has seen continued pressure on the like-for-like operating cost base, largely driven by wage inflation from the industry's collective labor agreement. Adjusted operating profit was GBP 26.4 million at an operating margin of 7.8%. We continue to drive organic growth in the Netherlands with the opening of 4 new branches in line with our strategy to expand our branch network in the Eastern part of the country, and those branches have performed well since opening. Turning to Finland. The construction market saw a further contraction in 2024, following a double-digit decline in 2023 and continued weakness in the domestic economy and export markets. In this context, we feel that IKH has performed well against the broader Finnish market backdrop. Revenue of GBP 132 million decreased by 3.1% on a constant currency basis in the year. There is more emerging confidence that the bottom of the cycle has been reached with a return to gradual growth anticipated in 2025 as the consumer and business outlook improves. Cost reduction actions were taken to reduce the operating cost base and streamline IKH's organizational structure, which helped to partially mitigate gross margin pressure, which arose from the competition in the markets, the sell-through of aged inventory to reduce net working capital investment and a less favorable product mix. Adjusted operating profit was GBP 8.9 million with an operating margin at 6.8%. A business improvement project focused on net working capital ramped up over the course of the year, which reduced the investment in stock by GBP 12 million -- sorry, EUR 12 million. This multi-year project, which initially focused on inventory, will continue to deliver improvements in 2025, including optimizing trade receivables and payables. Finally, we opened a new branch in the suburb of Helsinki, which brings our total number of stores in the Finnish capital or owned stores in the Finnish capital to 4 and increased our own store network overall to 15 branches. Our Woodie's business delivered a strong trading performance, underpinned by a favorable macroeconomic environment in Ireland. Revenue of GBP 261 million was 3.9% ahead on a constant currency basis, supported by a 4% increase in the number of transactions, while the average transaction value was broadly unchanged. Similar to our Chadwicks business in Ireland, Woodie's saw a notable increase in sales in the second half. The busiest December on record in Woodie's delivered a strong finish to the year, supported by consumer confidence, which was boosted by favorable government budgetary measures just before the important Christmas trading period. Strong commercial management generated gross margin improvement in the year. Adjusted operating profit of GBP 34.7 million was 8.9% ahead on a constant currency basis with the operating margin 60 basis points higher at 13.3%. Woodie's digital strategy resulted in growth in online sales of 10.5% in 2024, largely driven by the Click and Collect channel, leveraging the coverage provided by the extensive network, which we have across Ireland. Turning to our manufacturing business. The market continued to be very challenging with total revenue of GBP 108.6 million and adjusted operating profit of GBP 24.3 million. The operating margin of 22.4% remained resilient in the context of a significant drop in volumes. CPI EuroMix saw volumes decline by 18% as new residential housing activity remains subdued. However, the rate of decline moderated significantly in the second half with some modest growth evident in the final 2 months of the year as the housebuilding sector began to slowly recover. Despite inflationary cost pressure, stringent cost control resulted in lower overheads in comparison to prior year, partially mitigating the drop in volumes. StairBox continued to be adversely impacted by the challenging RMI market in the U.K. as volumes declined by 12% compared to 2023. However, with the beneficial impact of the acquisition of Wooden Windows in December 2023 and ongoing good margin management, profitability in the business improved compared to the prior year. Turning now to the balance sheet and a few points here. We saw an increase in the group's capital employed of GBP 23 million in comparison to prior year and that was largely due to the impact of the Salvador Escoda acquisition. Our net debt of GBP 132 million, including lease liabilities, was GBP 82 million higher than prior year and that reflects the impact of that growth investment. Adjusted return on capital employed was 10.3% in the year, above our estimated weighted average cost of capital of 9%. And we feel this represents a resilient performance in the context of where we are in the construction cycle. Looking more closely at our year-end net working capital of GBP 280.7 million. This increased by GBP 56.6 million, largely due to the impact of the Salvador Escoda acquisition. Like-for-like net working capital reduced by GBP 14.9 million and was achieved without compromising on product availability. Turning to cash flow. We generated GBP 298 million of cash from operations in the year, demonstrating the strength of the portfolio of businesses, which have a very high rate of conversion of profit into cash. Now this table sets out the cash flow for 2024. And you can see that free cash flow generation remained very strong, being 100% of adjusted operating profit similar to last year and in cash terms was ahead of our expectations. This free cash flow funded the return of capital to shareholders via share buybacks and dividends during the year, but the better than anticipated cash generation provides the ability to fund the incremental GBP 30 million share buyback program, which we announced today. As we said at the half year results in August, and I'd reiterate again, we've deliberately preserved our strong balance sheet for organic and inorganic development opportunities with our closing net debt position at the end of December being GBP 132 million, representing a net debt to EBITDA ratio of just under 0.5x. We've retained significant capacity to support the future development of the group. And I think that's a positive note to hand back to Eric to talk about our ambitions and business outlook.

Thank you, David. So as you all know, we operate in whilst cyclical, a very attractive market of building material and home improvement product distribution. It's a large, fragmented market with structural growth drivers. So what are those? So if you look at the markets we operate in, in every single market, we have a shortage of housing. If you take Spain as a new market where we have entered, there is a 600,000 structural shortage in housing. The Netherlands, depending on which number you believe, it's somewhere between 400,000 potentially up to 900,000 shortage of housing. If you look at the U.K., government wants to build 1.5 million houses over the next 5 years. In Ireland, there is a structural shortage. I can go on and on, yes. So it's a market where there's a structural shortage. And actually, in most markets or in all the markets we are in, there's a lot of aged housing stock, which will be in need of renovation. And in addition to that, also a lot of demand to make existing housing stock more energy efficient or, for example, regulation driving the replacement of certain air conditioning in the Spanish market just because of regulation. In other words, the market itself provides a strong medium and long-term growth opportunity, which I feel is important to point out, which then turns to Grafton where we look at ourselves. We believe that as an organization, we have the structure and strength to capitalize on these growth opportunities going forward. So we have, as you know, a decentralized operating model where we have management team focusing on the country and then on the customers in distinct leading distribution models. That enables focus on the customers. It also enables fast decision-making. So if we talk about -- and David alluded to it, cost mitigation actions given the inflationary pressure on OpEx across all the countries, whilst we couldn't fully mitigate it because of the decentralized structures, the teams are really fast in addressing those issues. We have a lean and focused team at the center. We are focusing on strategy, performance management, governance, but of course, leverage best practices and provide subject matter expertise. We have an increased geographic diversification and a diversification -- a broad diversification of our customer base. And I think I would point out, we also have in every market, an excellent branch network, which is up-to-date as we keep investing in our branch network also in the down cycle. So we have not just opened 7 branches, we have continued to invest into the branch network to keep the branches current and looking good and fresh and relevant for our customer base. And of course, we have digital capabilities, which in combination with the branch network, we believe is a very strong proposition for our customer base. The teams are experienced. We have strong teams in the different operating brands. And I can only point out that, as David said, we preserve deliberately the balance sheet because we want to capitalize on the growth opportunities the market presents going forward. So if you take all of what I just said and look a little bit to our market entry to the Iberian Peninsula. So it hasn't been a coincidence that we have acquired Salvador Escoda. So we looked at which ones of the markets we are not in. We're happy with the market we're in. Markets we are not in, gives us the characteristics or shares the characteristics we are looking for. So a big market, highly fragmented with an opportunity to drive growth organically, but also do buy-build. And so we looked at the Iberian Peninsula. It's a EUR 30 billion building material distribution market, EUR 25 million in Spain -- sorry, EUR 25 billion in Spain, EUR 5 billion Portugal. If you look at the HVAC distribution segment, it's a EUR 2.7 billion segment, and that's where we now first entered. But let me be clear, we do have ambitions to build a substantial presence in the building material distribution sector on the Iberian Peninsula. If I look at Salvador Escoda, still, it's a fragmented market with opportunities in the HVAC segment where Salvador is one of the leading platforms, but also in adjacencies. We acquired Salvador to have a first step in and drive growth and a strong market position in that market. Salvador Escoda is led by a very experienced management team, by the daughter of the founder, Marta Escoda, who has been in -- well, she literally grew up with the business, right? Her father founded it in 1974. She has been the CEO before we acquired and she still is the CEO and continues to be the CEO of that business to drive it. The main customer base are SME installers. One of the distinct advantages of Salvador Escoda is it has a very strong proposition of own brands. So very strong position in AC. The brand used there is MundoClima. There are many other brands within the Salvador Escoda portfolio. So we have through that acquisition around 750 new colleagues in the Grafton family. So a little bit more detail around how Salvador Escoda looks. They currently have 92 branches in Spain and 4 distribution centers, which are in Seville, outside of Barcelona, in Madrid and in Valencia, allowing us very good cover to our customer base and to our branches. The full year revenue last year was EUR 233.1 million with an operating profit of 6.1% -- sorry, 6.4%. Now that was slightly less than the prior year. And I would point out that this is not a business which was dressed up for sale. And as we went through the process of diligence, Salvador Escoda has opened 3 more branches during the year, which obviously have a little bit of time until they reach breakeven. And we also opened the distribution center in Seville during 2024. If you go back, the average CAGR 2019 onwards was around 7%. So a business which is used to drive growth. So what is Grafton doing with this particular business? Well, the first thing we have done and are doing is we hired an integration manager. I'm not fluent in Spanish, so I speak many other languages, but not Spanish, unfortunately. So we hired an integration manager who is Spanish and actually Catalan, who can speak Catalan and Spanish, implanted the person into the team of Salvador Escoda, driving the integration with our colleagues at the group to make sure that processes are implemented and adhered in terms of best practice, which we are looking for as a business. There are some upgrades we are doing on IT infrastructure, as you would expect in the transition from a family business into the PLC world and we have a plan and are on track executing that. And looking at the business other than inorganic options and adjacencies, we certainly believe that there is significant room to open 50-plus branches over time organically within Salvador Escoda. So there is a plan to drive growth within Salvador Escoda and there is also a plan to drive growth beyond Salvador Escoda within the Iberian Peninsula. A few words about current trading in the first few months. I think the first thing I want to point out, and you know that who follow Grafton regularly, the first 2 months are not the 2 months which make the year, right? The important trading months are yet to come. The U.K. RMI market has been and remains challenging. But on the upside, and you can see that reflected in the U.K. numbers where our predominant exposure is to RMI. But we do see some positive signs of improvement in the U.K. housebuilding volumes, which is normally an indicator that RMI will improve over time. I have to point out, as I always do it slightly smiling, but there has been disruptive weather. We had to -- we had bad storms in the U.K., as you know, which led to far less activity and impacted, for example, Selco quite significantly. We also had the same issue in Ireland, where there was an impact on Chadwicks and on MacBlair. We had to close some branches for some period of time. I think the net beneficiary of all of that was Woodie's and you can see it reflected in retailing. And I think in 1 day, we sold 7 months of sales, which we normally have in batteries and torches. So you can see how the Irish people made sure that they are stocked up on that. So you can all read the slide yourself. So overall, trading was slightly down in terms of average like-for-like revenue. What is not on the slide, but I would still mention it when you do the same exercise for Spain, which of course, we didn't own last year, but average daily like-for-like revenue is up 4.1% over that time period, reflecting the health of the Spanish market. Coming to the outlook. A mixed bag, right? We continue to expect economic growth in Ireland. The construction market outlook remains positive with a pick-up in RMI to be expected. RMI in Ireland has still not been very strong in 2024. So we expect that to improve over time. And we also expect, as David mentioned earlier, completion of housing to increase over 2025. In the U.K., cautious on the near-term. We wait for that RMI recovery, which will have a big impact for our U.K. performance. And we do expect a gradual recovery in housing, but it's really dependent on the progress on the supply side. Netherlands, the construction market outlook shows first signs of improvement. So again, we think there is a gradual recovery. If you look at Finland, Finland has been harder hit than during the financial crisis, right? So we look at our Finnish numbers and think, gee, that business is really down. And then you look at market-leading businesses in Finland, which actually flipped into loss-making territory. And you kind of think, well, relatively speaking, it's not too bad. It's not where we want to be, but it's not too bad. And again, we do believe that we are now kind of on the bottom of that cycle and there are increasing signs that the cycle turns in Finland and that we will have a slow gradual recovery. Spain, I mentioned it briefly, you look at the average daily like-for-like sales. There is continued economic growth expected. There is positive momentum. And if you look at the construction market or the housebuilding market in Spain at the moment, supply is still not enough given the demand and there is a structural shortage. So we believe this is a very good market for years to come, and of course, for 2025. But overall, as a portfolio and taking the whole macroeconomic environment into consideration, we are cautious in terms of timing of a broader recovery given the global uncertainties in the market. And we don't believe there is a significant uptick in product pricing and volumes in the short-term. But nevertheless, we remain confident. I wasn't quite sure how I should frame the slide here. I kind of tried to bring everything together and I thought about maybe I should say you get a little -- you get a lot for a little in Grafton, because if I look at us as a business, we think we have really strong growth potential in the medium to long-term because we do have market-leading brands. We have high operating leverage, which of course, gives you the negative impact on the downturn, right? And we do have strong teams. So we are overall, we believe, very well positioned to benefit of the market recovery in certain markets, whether it's Finland, whether that's the U.K., but also we are very ambitious and do have the firepower to drive growth organically and inorganically. So overall, that is really a great position to deliver attractive returns going forward. As I mentioned, we have highly cash-generative businesses. Again, cash conversion, 100% from adjusted operating profit. So we generate cash. We have a strong balance sheet. And we continue, I can assure you, we continue to be disciplined in the way how we allocate capital. And I think we have seen that in the past that the company has a good track record in the way how we look through different lenses at the way how we allocate capital. So that's all that we need from my side. So I'll open up the Q&A.

So just in terms of Q&A, usual Grafton rules apply. I've got a very short-term memory. So if you can ask one question at a time. We will let you hold on to the mic so you can ask your usual 3 questions for one. We'll do the questions in the room. If there are any questions online, we'll turn to that at the end. So we'll start with Shane.

The first one, just in terms of the U.K., and it's kind of a 2-part question, I guess. From a capacity perspective, has anything changed given how challenging the market has been over the last number of years? And then thinking forward, in terms of -- you mentioned quite a few times, Eric, how you're kind of geared for growth. How does the rest of the industry feel in terms of you've made investment into the branch networks, et cetera? Does it feel like the rest of the industry is equally as geared for growth?

I think it depends who you ask, right? So I'm not really that focused on thinking about what the rest of the industry does versus are we prepared as a business to capitalize on the growth when there is a swing coming. So I think as you will have seen, if you take the specific U.K. market, hardest hit we were at Selco. Yes, we went through it every time since I'm here, high operating leverage, high fixed cost base, 10%, 15% more or less revenue makes a huge impact on the bottom-line. Now we have driven cost out at Selco. We have around 350 less colleagues than we had 18 months ago. And we did that in a way that we still serve the customer well. So it's a blend between efficiency drive in store ops versus people at the center. So -- and in Leyland, we have continued to expand, right? We opened, as David said, 2 more stores. We haven't opened stores in Selco, and there is good reason for that. Part of the reason is we still believe there's a potential for 90, without a shadow of a doubt. If you look at our very strong position in the Southeast and around the London area, you have to get the right location and they don't come around that often, right? So we are focused on getting the location right. If you look at some of the Selco stores outside of that, let's call it, the heartland of Selco, we are thinking about do we find ways to have a lower breakeven point, a slightly different cost structure while still giving the value proposition. So we will figure that one out before we really would expand further in those areas. But I'm not sure I have really answered the question or was I like a politician. I kind of gave my message irrespective of what you asked.

Just in terms of capacity in the industry, does it feel like that's changed greatly?

No, not really overall. No, it hasn't changed.

And then sorry, the second one then, just in terms of Spain. You went into quite a lot of detail with us in October about how fragmented the HVAC market is. Could you talk a little bit about the kind of wider building materials distribution market in Spain? Is that equally as fragmented?

Equally fragmented. Spain and Portugal are of the, let's say, the -- if you take the -- how do I say, the European markets, if you ignore Eastern Europe or other markets, it's by far the most fragmented market in all the different product segments. So that's why we see the real opportunity there to drive something in the years to come.

Will? And don't try that trick of I've got one question of 3 parts, all right?

Will Jones, Redburn Atlantic. One whole question, please, just around Ireland. The comments you made about last year, completions down, RMI difficult, infra delays, all sounded quite cautious, yet your volumes grew nearly 5% in the year. Can you help us understand that? And I think starts increased quite strongly in Ireland. So should we be looking at another 4% to 5% on volume this year, do you think?

Yes. Look, I mean, commencements last year were up at 69,000. Now there were specific reasons for that in terms of a number of developers looking to get ahead of and benefit from changes in terms of planning and water tariffs. So there were a number of reasons why commencements and why it was expeditious for developers to get some shovels in the ground. It was a surprise though that it came down. I mean, even up until probably October, November, I think the Irish Government were talking about quite significant growth in housing. Now admittedly, that was going into an election where the #1 political issue in Ireland is housing and increasing the housing supply. So maybe there was a little bit of political posturing around it. But nevertheless, it was a bit of surprise that housing completions came off. I do think it's testament to the strength of the Chadwicks and the Chadwicks team that I think we've grown market share in a period that was broadly flat. So I do think that, that is about the strength of our proposition there, which only serves to underpin that if we do see some growth in the current year, and there are a number of reasons to be optimistic around completions being up, a number of reasons to be optimistic that some of the infrastructure projects will start to kick on, and indeed, that consumer confidence will start to move into actually spending a bit of money now in improving the home. And against that backdrop, we're just really very well placed. So I would be optimistic about the year ahead. I guess, if there's a message, it's didn't we do well against what was a pretty flat market last year.

Probably just to add to that, I think what we still see in Ireland is, compared to historic areas, kind of slightly different mix, right? There are more apartments built rather than individual dwellings, which gives you a slightly different mix because you serve a big customer base, so a slightly different margin mix. And as David said, we just haven't seen RMI really going in the way how we would like it. So if the mix improves and the RMI market comes back then we'll be really positive. But I think we are happy with what we have at the moment in Ireland.

Second was just on Finland. I think in the statement, it talks about 370 basis point gross margin decline in the year. That's a big number. So maybe you can just help us understand it. And I think it once did 14% operating margin. Should we think that some of that maybe has gone and might not be recovered eventually or do you think that's still attainable?

Yes. Look, I think what we've seen in terms of margin pressure in Finland is similar to the margin pressure that we're seeing elsewhere, which is revenues come down a little bit. That means that the market is more competitive. That means you've got to respond in terms of the price of the product. And it's all against the backdrop where there's still pressure in terms of OpEx. That's the sort of the underlying theme, I would say, as regards what we've seen across all our markets. I think Finland was particularly challenging. Volumes were under a lot of pressure. But I think as I also mentioned, what we also saw in Finland was that we were looking to sell through in aged stock. So that did have a bearing in terms of the gross margin. We did see it also in terms of some of that mix of sales which we've seen elsewhere. We saw in the Netherlands. It tended to be sales on the RMI side to the smaller customer proportionately reduced tended to be sales on larger projects which attract less attractive margins. I do think that we will see in due course as the market recovers there, margin recovery, margin recovery because that will be a facet of what happens when markets improve. But equally, I think through self-help actions as well, we've -- I think I mentioned we were taking steps to improve the net working capital position in Finland. That had a bearing on margin last year as we get the benefits of that come through, as we reach, if I can describe it as a lower but more sustainable level of net working capital investment, then we're not going to be selling through aged products. We're not going to have that impact on gross margin. So I'd expect to rebuild it. And in due course, as the economy recovers, we should start to move back towards those historic levels because those were levels which they had achieved through for a number of years. It wasn't a sort of one-off 14%.

And then the last one, if you could just update us, please, on the commodity component of your sales, steel and timber, particularly. What's the latest share of revenue and the outlook for those for you?

In terms of share of revenue, I mean, it's probably not a relevant figure across the group. I mean, it tends to -- it is much more relevant in terms of Ireland where we're the biggest steel stockholder where timber is an important component. And I think what I would just say about that is year-on-year, from a steel perspective, pricing is sort of pretty similar to where it was 12 months ago. Timber is up a little bit. Our view of product price inflation in the U.K. and Ireland for the year ahead is still going to be pretty modest. Eric talked about it in the sort of conclusion. It sort of feels like 1%-ish overall for the product category. We just have to be a little bit cautious, though, because we don't really know what the impact of tariffs are going to be. And it's the sort of knock-on effects of tariffs. We don't know how that will affect underlying economies, but we don't know how it's going to affect commodity pricing. So for example, if we look at significant steel production in the Far East, if they can't find a ready market for it in North America, they may well look to put it into the EU. If they look to put it into the EU, we may see more tariffs in the EU. So understanding how that dynamic will impact product pricing, notwithstanding the fact that most of the end products are sourced in the EU, clearly, as you've got important elements of like steel going into those products themselves, understanding how that will impact on inflation, quite frankly, we just need to be responsive to it, but I couldn't quite tell you what it's going to look like in 12 months' time. Christen?

Christen Hjorth from Deutsche Numis. A couple for me, actually. So the first one, it's interesting to hear about the wider ambition perhaps in Spain and Portugal for M&A. Could you touch on the pipeline there, both in HVAC? I know it's not that long since you've done the deal, but also the general sort of distribution space? And should we be thinking about M&A over '25 in Spain and perhaps how that impacts your thoughts around capital allocation? That's the first one.

Look, I think I gave my standard answer, right? You would all know how quickly you can execute what you have in the pipeline. You need a willing seller and you need to agree on a price and you need to have no surprises in the diligence, right? So there are a lot of what ifs, and we all have gone through this many times. What I can say is we have a big pipeline, right? So there's a -- we have a good M&A team. They work very diligently on the pipeline and we are working through that. But how quickly things will fall through the funnel and are executed, we shall see. And I think that's where I would phrase it like it's a big funnel. There is a lot of opportunity. At the same time, we want to make a sensible decision how much we pay for things and what we then go and do with it, right? So there are multiple lenses how we look at it. But I'm confident that over the years to come, we will allocate. And that's why I would just mention one more time, as David said that the share buyback is really linked to the excess cash generated over and above we thought we will be in 2024. So we said here in August that we'll return the free cash flow back to shareholders which we generate in 2024. And being true to that, there is another GBP 30 million tranche we do now, but we really have the balance sheet and keep that balance sheet to execute on growth opportunities.

It sounds like there's a lot going on. And the second one is just around -- I mean, I suppose more strategically around Finland and the wider Nordics market. Would it be fair to say that your focus is more on Iberia now than sort of building out a presence there? Would that be a fair assumption?

It depends, right? So we do look at what else can we do in the Nordics. But there is -- there seems to be a higher multiple you pay for organization in the Nordics. And then the question, as always is, if we buy that, what does it really give us and what can we do with it in terms of building value over time. And in that sense, I would say there are more opportunities for us in Iberia. That doesn't mean that the team is not also focusing on generating opportunities in the Nordics, which might be interesting. But then it comes to the capital allocation question, as I mentioned earlier, say, does it give us the return? Do we think we create value? And if the answer is no, then we don't deploy the capital.

Aynsley?

I'm Aynsley Lammin from Investec. I've got 2, I think. So first one, just when you're looking at the -- talking about 1% product price inflation, is that based on the assumption that you kind of hold gross margins broadly? When you look at the inflation coming through on the COGS level last year, you obviously largely held them. Is that a fair assumption for gross margins this year across the group?

Well, certainly, our ambition will be to hold gross margin. But we have to respond to what's happening in the broader marketplace. So I think the 1% is about -- as we see from our discussions with manufacturers and suppliers, how we feel about the market at the moment in terms of what we're likely to see landing in the marketplace. So I probably wouldn't make a direct comparison between the 1% on product price inflation. Our objective is to at least hold gross margin, but we just need to respond to the dynamic conditions.

Okay, great. And then secondly, just, I guess, hinting there's quite a lot going on M&A. If you look at the leverage below 0.5x, could you just remind us again where you'd be comfortable for leverage to go to, particularly maybe as markets are bottoming and the outlook is looking a little bit better, hopefully?

Yes. Look, as we've said before, we've got an investment-grade credit rating. It's important to us that we keep that, not just in terms of external stakeholder perception, but actually because it gives us good trend lines to think about debt capacity. I would say, in the current environment, we would regard net debt to EBITDA a ceiling somewhere probably around about 1.5x that sort of level. Once we sort of really get into the upswing, we've got that certainty that we're starting to see volume growth, then we -- our ambitions could move ahead of that because naturally, we would just by virtue of improving outlook and operating leverage and improving profitability, you'd naturally see the net debt to EBITDA come back. But I would -- if you work on the basis of 1.5x, there's probably about GBP 0.5 billion of firepower based on net debt as it was at the end of December. Alastair?

Alastair Stewart, Progressive. A couple of questions. The first one was, I was surprised like you that there have been a fall in Irish housing completions. But in the RNS, also you mentioned a decline in build-to-rent investment. Can you put any color on that? I thought that would be booming.

Look, I think that the government in Ireland is committed to try to improve the housing supply in all forms of tenure. I probably wouldn't draw attention in terms of build-to-rent and any specific issues behind it. But I do think a lot of those more affordable shared housing, buy-to-rent tenure, a lot of it does require some element of government support. And I think the government is very supportive going into 2025 and 2026. So look, I wouldn't read too much into that specific subsector in the current year. I think from all forms of tenure, there is a real appetite from government and the other political parties in Ireland to put their shoulder into it and to improve volumes. So it's a positive backdrop.

And the second one was, at Ibstock's results yesterday, they indicated that the builders merchants have been running really tight inventories and brick inventories in any case. But they hinted and it was no more than a hint that the reverse position might occur with the merchants and the housebuilders on building up stocks ahead of themselves, if you like, on the basis of possibly a more upbeat view on housing starts than U.K. housing starts and perhaps you've suggested. Any views on that?

It sounds like a good sales pitch. Look, less relevant for us in terms of heavy side. The evidence that we've seen from November, December, January and February in CPI is higher volumes in mortar. Interestingly, though, that is more throughput through existing silos. So the evidence would be that housebuilders are building and selling more of existing sites. What we're not really seeing is a massive expansion in terms of silo numbers. So site numbers still seem quite constrained. So I think the demand backdrop looks pretty positive actually at the moment in terms of new housebuild. As Eric mentioned, though, the constraint at the moment is supply side. And again, talking about the Ireland parallels in the U.K., U.K. Government committed to expanding that supply base seems to be making positive progress in that, but that takes time. It's not -- I don't think suddenly going to land in 2025, but we'd be more optimistic '26, '27. So yes, I think a sort of more positive backdrop. I can understand why the brick manufacturers would be saying that. They're going to be looking to land their price increases in April. So a bit more sales for them would be great. And as you would envisage, more brick volume, there's more to go into it. So that would -- yes, we'd support that there seems to be a bit more activity about. Ben? Sorry, Ami.

Ami Galla from Citi. A few from me. The first one was on the Woodie's gross margin enhancement. You've mentioned supplier procurement was one of the drivers. Have we captured most of the gains? And were there any mix changes or mix that drove the better margin performance in the Woodie's business? My question really is, how well can we defend the performance that we've had to date on that?

Well, it's partially mix. It's partially focusing on trying to buy better, having -- buying direct, having more imports as well. So overall, I think it's just well managed. I think where we sit, and I think David longer than I'm here kind of keep saying, well, I wouldn't be surprised. Would this overall profitability is maybe on the high end. The team keeps surprising us how well they actually manage. So it's mainly driven by -- on the gross margin side, by mix and better buying.

My second question was on the Finland business. Can you give us an update in terms of the competitive dynamics now? There's been a bit of consolidation from your peers as well. Market structure, market share, has anything changed over 2024 in Finland? And beyond the sort of cyclical recovery, the organic growth expansion, is there a plan forward in terms of the branch additions there? And how should we think about that?

Yes. So look, the reality is I don't really see us adding many more branches in Finland. Full stop. So that business is mainly a business which sells to resellers, right? The business model is it's a business with a large product portfolio who sells to rural shops who resell in their local area across a broad spectrum of SKUs. And that's the backbone of IKH. There are some own stores which are in the high-density areas where you wouldn't have those, we call it, partner stores. But I think with 15, we are pretty much there or thereabouts. So it's now the growth around the partner stores and we have limited beyond the cyclicality more limited growth opportunities in Finland versus larger growth opportunities in Sweden where we currently have some partner stores, but not many. It's a relatively small business. So if anything, we will see more growth in partner stores in Sweden in years to come, a cyclical recovery in Finland and we also have a partner set-up in Estonia where we deliver to partner stores within Estonia. And that, I would say, is again driven around the economic side.

The last question for me is one on HVAC implants in your current markets. Is there a prospect of having a sort of an HVAC sort of business in some of the other markets? And in terms of market structure, competitive dynamics, which lends best?

I'm not excluding anything like that. But again, we now have -- we bought the business in Spain. We will drive the business there. If we can leverage certain things which we do in Spain into other markets, we will. But there is certainly not that we say now we push the MundoClima air conditioning down Chadwicks' throat over there and say you're going to have to stock this, you're going to have to drive this. So I think what you have to do here is also appreciate that market structures are different, markets are slightly different. Yes, you sell a lot of more ACs in Spain than you do in Ireland. My Irish colleagues keep telling me that there will be more demand for AC in Ireland in the years to come. And I will be delighted. And clearly, we will make sure that our colleagues on the Chadwicks side, for example, are connected with our colleagues in Spain. And if there are things we should do together in the medium-term, we will.

Sam Cullen from Peel Hunt. I've got 2 also. First one is on Selco and the potential recovery. Do you think anything has structurally changed in that market, kind of thinking about David's comments around kind of consumer incomes being squeezed as the rate cycle kind of ratchet higher? Do we have to just wait for refinancing to kind of roll through in that market and disposable income to improve or does the math just not stack up for renovators in London and the Southeast who are looking at the barrel kind of 30% build cost inflation in 3 years and flat house prices or is it just a cyclical recovery you need to wait for?

No, I think in the great scheme -- and David will interrupt me. So in the great scheme of thing, I think it's an issue of cyclicality. Now in the more nuanced way of looking at it, I think we have -- the overall market went down, but we had the most recent expansion was actually outside of the London area. So if you look at where we drove expansion in 2017 onwards, it was mainly outside. So those stores had -- so then you have COVID in between with some super natural demand, almost excess demand, yes, because nobody could spend the money. So you might as well redecorate your garden and do a few rooms up and so on and so on. So during that COVID time, those stores were all nicely contributing. As then the cycle turned, given they are not yet that mature, the picture looks slightly different. So if you let a bit of water out where you have less water in, it kind of has a bigger impact, right? So I think the main issue is cyclicality. I think from a structural point of view, we should also not forget that we do compete, especially outside of London with people like B&Q and Wickes who have started to really focus on trade. So we do think about is our -- we have strengthened the team in Selco. We do think about is the value proposition right going forward. I slightly alluded earlier in kind of saying, well, we also think about should the model be slightly different because the current model of Selco has a pretty high fixed cost because it's a big shed with you need a lot of people to operate it safely and efficiently. And is this size-wise and structural exactly the right model when you go into areas where you will have by default less footfall than whether you are somewhere in and around the M25. So I think there is -- to be perfectly honest, I think there is a mix of different components. The ones we have levers to pull, we are working on them and trying to pull those levers. But I think the big topic is actually a macro topic rather than a micro topic, but I'm not suggesting there are not micro things we need to do as a business as well.

And the second one is just on Salvador Escoda and the sort of 50 branches you could add. You said the business did 3 last year. What's a reasonable time frame for adding 50 plus? Is that a 7, 10-year journey or a 5-year journey?

Yes. I would say, we would like to get to a pace that we can probably open 7 a year. Now they are unlike a Selco, they are not big branches, right? So they are relatively small branches. And you don't have long, long lease commitments where you might to have a break after 15 years. You have lease commitments where you can get out within 3 years or 5 years if it wouldn't work. But having said that, we really want to open the right branches in the right locations, right? So we're working hard with the Spanish team to have -- we have the map there with the dots and the areas we want to be. And then as always, it's the micro analysis of the location. Is the location right? Can the tradesman park their van? Is it easy access? And so on and so on, yes. So -- but we would like to get to a 7 plus per year in an ideal world.

Florence O'Donoghue. Just one for me. Just a quick word on the outlook for OpEx this year in terms of labor, rents, I guess, the 2 big line items there, just what you're seeing?

Yes. Look, I think if we look at like-for-like OpEx costs in 2024 from the group as a whole, we were running at about 3%. Now that compares to 4.5% in 2023. I would say, we've done an awful lot of work in trying to make sure that the OpEx is rightsized. We've -- there's not much fat left across those businesses. I would say, a similar sort of backdrop when we look at what's happening on national minimum wage and we're looking at what's happening and will happen in April on national insurance in the U.K., for example. So it's probably 3%, 3.5%-ish feels like a sort of a reasonable level, but that it will be a lot of work to manage it to that level.

Ben Varrow from RBC. First one, probably just building on Salvador. So you mentioned the 50 organic additions to the store base. Just thinking how you square the circle between acquiring sort of other players there given how fragmented the market is versus building those 50?

What I think about it relatively simple. Yes, we have a Salvador organization and they do the things in their line. And then we have a broader organization, which looks at the other topics. So we're not going to -- I'm not going to suggest that the management team in Salvador Escoda enters the channel builders merchant market, for example, right? So they are in the lane of HVAC.

Yes. The question is more so, you said the market is quite fragmented in HVAC. So are there other players to acquire in that market?

Yes, there are. Sure, there are.

And then the rationale sort of building up 50 versus acquiring those other players?

Well, there are areas in Spain, for example, if you go to Galicia, where they will have far less air conditioning than, for example, Salvador Escoda has traditionally where they are the absolute market leader in ACs in Spain. So if you look at Salvador, they are really down very, very strong. The whole coastal path down from Costa Brava all the way down to Andalusia, they are very, very strong there versus in Galicia, you will have existing strong players, which have -- which will be family-owned, which have a slightly different emphasis on, let's call it, the [ hero ] products. They're really strong products they sell. And we haven't organically gone in there as Salvador Escoda. We don't really plan to go organically in there in a big way. But if we go in there, we will probably look at an inorganic way of going in there and building a strong position. So that's how you have to look at the market. When I talk about the 50 stores in Salvador, that's really around if Salvador would still own the business, that would have been the ambition where he would have wanted to go over time. Now with us as the owner, we can accelerate that, right? Because we can deploy capital faster than he would have probably done as a family-owned business where he would have just taken, well, I've already opened 1 or 2 this year, let's wait, right? So -- but then you have areas within Spain where Salvador hasn't gone in, but there are attractive areas and there is clear product overlap, but it's slightly different. And that's where you can do the M&A in that sector.

And next, just building again on sort of coming back to Selco and more broadly the group, mid-term margin is probably difficult to call, but is there any reason to assume it can't get back to that sort of 10% level?

I wouldn't be -- to be perfectly honest, I'm not fussed about whether the margin is 10% and 8%. I'm fussed about that we have a competitive offering in the market that our profit turns into cash and that we really have a business which shows a good growth trajectory. If you look at the distribution businesses, if you put the margin threshold at 10% in distribution, there are not that many distribution businesses of any scale which have a 10%, unless you go into specialty segments. But even the market leaders, if you take a Nordic business like [indiscernible], which is a multibillion business, they are below 10%. If you look at outside the building industry, you look at the business like Bunzl, they are below 10%. They are good businesses. So yes, we try to put the business margin in a Selco over time back to the historic levels. We would expect Leyland and the TG Lynes as we go through the cycle to go back towards historic levels. But when I look at the group overall, well, if we start to buy more businesses, which are good businesses with strong cash conversion, but they are at 7.5%, 8% margin, then it will be very difficult to have the group margin at 10%, if that makes sense.

Makes sense. And last, just on working capital. Do you think we've reached a low point here now, particularly given your comments around the volatility possibly with some commodity products?

Yes. Look, if you look at our investment in net working capital relative to a sort of pro forma 12 months turnover, so if you include Salvador for a full 12 months, it's -- we're traveling at about 11.5%. Now there is no doubt that over the last 5 years with the transition of the group that actually we are now slightly more working capital intensive than we were. If you look at the Netherlands, you look at Finland, you look at Salvador Escoda, their model is different. It's based around distribution centers, significant investment in inventory, large number of SKUs to serve that customer base. So we have moved to a slightly higher level of working capital intensity. But my ambition would still be to take it from that 11.5% and bring it down closer towards 10%. So I still think that there's opportunity overall for the group. In monetary terms, that in time is probably GBP 20 million to GBP 30 million. But equally, what I would also hope is that we're powering ahead in the revenue line and sucking more working capital in. So it will sort of be -- it will be trying to do a twin move. One is to make us more efficient, but hopefully, we're investing for the right reasons, which is sales are powering ahead.

And I think to echo David's point, I think every time you buy a business, especially a family-owned business, yes, they are far less worried about how much stock they hold because they kind of, well, we're going to sell the stock, I have availability and so on. And part of the value we add as a group is to say, okay, what are the best processes in making sure that availability remains or improves, but overall stock level went down and what is the multi-year program, including tech we will have to put in place to support them to drive the working capital down. And I think that's what we have now started to successfully do in Finland, where we started to -- where we work with the management team after COVID to actually physically meet with them rather than virtually and start to really put those things in place. And I expect us to do similar things around Salvador Escoda, where I would look -- where we look at it and say, well, your stock turn is not high enough, right? But what you don't want to do is kind of do something and then you run out of the stuff you really want to sell. So you're going to have to do it in a planned and proper way. So as David said, as we buy, depending on the business, you might have more working capital in there and then you keep on driving it down through a structured approach to be at around the 10% overall in the medium-term.

Okay. Excellent. I think that's it. That's a wrap. Thank you very much, everyone, for coming. Good to see you all.

Thank you very much.