Grameenphone Ltd. (GP) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Welcome to the Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Disclosure for Grameenphone. My name is Naureen. I'm the Head of Investor Relations for Grameenphone. The presentation we are using today along with additional documents are available on our Investor Relations website. The Q&A link is also live. You can start posting your questions. We will address them at the end of our presentation. I would now like to welcome our CEO, Mr. Yasir Azman, to start the presentation.

Good day, everyone. Welcome to Q3 2020 Earnings Call from Grameenphone side. My name is Yasir Azman, and I have been introduced as CEO of Grameenphone. I would like to begin with some industry highlights for all of you. Since the end of June up until August, the whole mobile industry actually have seen a growth of 4.8 million subscribers, ending with just over 166 million total subscribers, as reported by our regulator, BTRC. And then during the same period, the industry also gained 4.7 million mobile data users, reaching to 99.6 million at the end of August. [ We'll go to the ] highlights this quarter. In this third quarter, Grameenphone reported a recovery top line as economic activities in Bangladesh gradually resumed back following the initial months of COVID-19 pandemic. And after reporting a degrowth of 8.2% in second quarter, we ended the third quarter with a year-on-year decline of 2.8% in our total revenues, which we marked as a very good gradual recovery from the impact of COVID-19 in Q2. What we report is a 7.5% growth in Q3 over Q2 2020. We have also resumed our network rollout activities, reaching over 11,000 4G sites at the end of September, and it's continuing. The adverse impact from COVID-19 continued in the third quarter while we faced additional challenges from weather conditions due to the rainfall and floods. We'll get to know more numbers when our CFO will come and present on business performance. Recovering performance, while even, we accepted SMP impositions in June 2020. Moving on to next slide, some of our operational updates. The economy of Bangladesh actually has started to show signs of gradual recovery from May. After general holidays declared by the government, which came to the end in -- some time in May, we have seen the recovery. And throughout the quarter, we saw businesses and overall economic activity is resuming to normal operations. And this is one of the key contributors actually to our [ recovery ]. As I mentioned, we have suffered from record rainfall over the same time this year in Q3. We were -- there were multiple floods in some parts of the country, damaging infrastructure and livelihoods of people particularly in the last 2 weeks of September in Q3. However, our rollout activities were almost unaffected. Revenue had some adverse impact. Out of this, our rollout continued in third quarter as we added 1,700 4G sites to our network. There has been a significant shift in the adoption of digital recharge during this pandemic. In the third quarter, our digital recharge volume grew by 59.6% compared to the same period last year. So the jump, what we have seen in Q2 we could sustain in Q3 with further increase into the digital recharges. Through market execution, revamp of data portfolio and expenses on 4G conversion, we actually gained 2.6 million new 4G users, which have basically made us to reach 17.8 million active users at the end of quarter as far as the data user is concerned. We have a challenging business environment. We have been in meaningful consultations with our regulators and operators. There are progresses, and we will continue our engagement and constructive dialogue on all other matters. Some matters have been significant development such as the approval of agreement between Grameenphone and Tower Co., which was on 18th of October. As a result, Grameenphone will be able to start rolling out new sites under the new Tower Co. framework. This will significantly help enhance our network strength [ partner ] and provide an even better experience to our customers throughout the country. And this is what we were waiting for. However, on some other matters such as BTRC audit and subsequent court cases, there has not been any progress as of today as the courts have been operating on a very limited scale under the COVID-19 situation. We continue our activities to empower also society. At the end of September 2020, Grameenphone is serving 77.6 million total subscribers with its connectivity solution. Registering a 4.1% growth from the previous quarter, we are serving 42 million data subscribers during the same period. We have also paid BDT 71.3 billion to the national exchequer until September 2020 this year. During the Eid-ul-Adha, employees of Grameenphone came together to bring smile to 40,000 underprivileged children by providing 40,000 meals. It was carried out in partnership with Bidyanondo Foundation. We have already talked about the extensive flood situation in the country and the damage it has left on the livelihood of our people. We have distributed 62,000 flood relief packs in partnership with Bangladesh Red Crescent Society. And our ambition is to distribute more and, in total, 100,000 packs. We continue with our work from home for most of our workers until further notice. However, our market and field force employees, along with customer and stakeholder-facing employees, have already started operations starting from September while exercising still precaution, ensuring safety for themselves and those they interact with. Our sustainability team has also started visits on the ground to [ what's necessary only ]. I mean before we continue to totally assess the situation and [ with ] the rest of our employees, we have seen that the economic activity increase amidst like COVID-19 in this quarter. And we are now 7 months of COVID-19 in Bangladesh. So far, over 370,000 cases have been reported, while the number of deaths have crossed 5,500 in Bangladesh. The numbers is gradually declining in third quarter, and there have not been any new lockdown or restrictions in -- since May. However, protective measures are in place in most public areas. We have seen increased economic activity in September with opening of many businesses and government offices started operating 2 hours from the middle of September. However, the educational sector still remains closed, and situation still remains uncertain, while gradual recoveries of those areas we see. I'll take a pause here, and I'd like to invite and welcome our CFO, Jens Becker, to take our -- take us through our financial performance in details. So Jens?

Thank you, Azman. And good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I will proceed with our presentation with an overview of our financial performance. Grameenphone's financial performance has shown a clear recovery in Q3 after the sharp decline in the previous quarter due to the COVID-19 situation. The recovery is led by an increased economic activity following the gradual withdrawal of most of the restrictions throughout this quarter. After the sharp revenue decline in Q2, mostly in April, the recovery started from May and continued in Q3. In summary, Grameenphone had 1.4% year-on-year degrowth in subscriber and traffic revenue after 8.1% degrowth in Q2. The year-on-year EBITDA decreased by 3.5%, while we're able to maintain our margin at 63.6%. The CapEx-to-sales ratio, excluding license and lease, for the quarter stood at 7.1% compared to 6.3% in the previous quarter. EPS for the quarter stood at BDT 6.59 with a 22.4% growth from last year on a reported basis. Now turning to the details and starting with the subscriber numbers. In the third quarter, Grameenphone subscriber acquisition resumed with 3.1 million net adds, overcompensating the previous 2 quarters where we had been -- where we had negative net adds. Therefore, the subscriber base for the quarter stood at 77.6 million with a 4.1% growth from previous quarter. According to information published by BTRC, until August '20, GP's subscription market share improved by 0.2 percentage points to 46.4% compared to previous quarter, where it has been 46.2% in Q2. The 4G population coverage reached 83.3% with 6.2 percentage points increase from last quarter, where we had a 77.1% 4G population coverage in Q2. Turning to the revenue picture. Year-on-year daily subscription and traffic revenue, DCR growth for the quarter was minus 1.4% compared to minus 2.8%. For total revenue, as the recovery for total revenue was further impacted by a 30% reduction in local call termination rate effective from mid-July 2020. In comparison to the previous quarter, the total revenue increased by 7.5%, hence, continue to increase and to recover. The BDT 0.5 billion decrease in subscription and traffic revenue was mainly driven by the fall in voice revenue, contributed with minus BDT 1.4 billion, partly offset by the growth in data revenue, which contributed positively again with BDT 0.9 billion. At the end of the quarter, GP is yet to reach a positive year-on-year growth. On the data specifically here, as indicated before, our data revenue continued with double-digit growth of 11.4% in this quarter. The growth in data revenue was driven by 8% increase in data ARPU and a 3.4% increase in data users. Data user acquisition in Q3 was positively impacted by an accelerated drive on the expansion of our 4G network capacity along with the continued focus on 4G conversion. Data users for this quarter stood at 42 million, including 17.8 million 4G data users. Overall data user increased by 1.1 million, while 4G data users increased by 2.6 million during this quarter. GP continued providing its customer better value through attractive market offers including segmented campaigns and bonus on 4G data packs. As a result, GP's average usage, the average megabyte per user grew by 46.5% to around an average 2.58 gigabyte per user, leading to an 8% growth in data ARPU. The service ARPU recovered to a 3.4% degrowth after 8% -- an 8.2% degrowth in the previous quarter. The lower service ARPU was mainly driven by lower contribution from voice and interconnection and, as mentioned, partly offset by higher contribution from data. Now turning to the OpEx development. Our efficient OpEx management led to a year-on-year 0.9% OpEx reduction including our flood-related CSR contribution that Azman mentioned before. With the lower OpEx in Q3 being mainly influenced by lower revenue-driven costs and lower overhead expenses, the OpEx for the quarter stood at BDT 10.8 billion. On the EBITDA side, we posted a year-on-year 3.5% degrowth in Q3 mainly driven by the lower revenue after minus 10% in the previous quarter. In terms of margin, we maintained a 63.6% EBITDA margin in Q3, which is 1.2 percentage points higher than previous quarter. Next page, please. On the investment side, we had continued momentum with BDT 3.2 billion CapEx excluding the license and lease in Q3 and focused mainly towards acceleration of the 4G network expansion. We were able to roll out 1,070 new 4G sites in Q3, reaching 11,421 4G sites at the end of Q3. Now turning to profit. Our net profit for the quarter stood at BDT 8.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year 22.4% growth resulting mainly from one-off adjustments in the tax line in the previous year Q3. Net profit margin in Q3 stood at 25%, showing an improvement by 5.2 percentage points from previous year and 3.1 percentage points from previous quarter. With these, earnings per share were recorded at BDT 6.59. The year-on-year BDT 1.9 billion degrowth in operating cash flow was driven by BDT 1.1 billion higher CapEx and BDT 0.8 billion lower EBITDA. On net debt, GP stood at BDT 5 billion in this quarter. The BDT 4.1 billion increase in net debt from previous quarter was mainly contributed by BDT 3.8 billion higher liability and BDT 0.3 billion lower cash balance excluding the restricted cash. And I'm finishing my presentation with GP's contribution to the exchequer, where in the first 9 months of this year we have contributed around BDT 71 billion, equaling 68% of total revenue. With this, I would like to welcome back Azman.

Thank you. Thank you, Jens. I would like to highlight 2 things at the end, that we are experiencing a positive impact on our business performance and growth from the gradual increase of economic activities in the country and our planned investment, of course. However, uncertainty remains, as I mentioned, out of COVID. As noted today, development is positive. The second thing, the true planned investment, we'll continue to expand our network and enhance experience of our customers. Our dedication to our communities remain strong, and we are committed to use our technology expertise in supporting the recovery of COVID-19 in Bangladesh. Thank you, everyone. I hand back to Naureen for Q&A session.

So the first question we have is from Citi Brokerage Limited. Will GP lead the data price cut in the industry to gain more market share in data revenue segment?

Yes, Grameenphone has actually booked the deposit as noncurrent assets, which is directed by the Hon'ble Appellate Division. And this is accounted for as per the requirement of IFRS. Naureen?

Just going back to the first question from Citi Brokerage, will GP lead the price cut in the industry and 4G subscribers?

Yes, I have got actually the second question in my window. It was a previous question, right, Naureen?

Yes.

Yes. GP offers relevant voice, data products with superior value and experience in the market with competitive prices. We cannot give any forward-looking statement or comments on our price. Number of 4G subscribers as of today stands at 19.1 million.

Is there any particular reason for flat average mobile users in Q3 compared to Q2? There is actually no flat user. There has been a growth.

4.1% growth, as I reported, in subscribers growth. However, the question was flat average in the amount of users. That also is not correct either. We have significant growth. Our price per users are flat, while data users grew by 2.8% quarter-on-quarter.

There's a question from [ console ]. Revenue per minute for voice, adjusted revenue continues to decline. Are we yet to roll back 3 minutes offered during COVID? No, we have rolled back the 3 minutes. What percentage of your revenue comes from promotional SMS? We'll be coming back to you on this.

Yes. But generally, we don't disclose these details.

Concerning the ongoing pandemic, do you have any plan to reduce employee size?

There is no relation with the ongoing pandemic and the employee size. It's -- that's not what we see any connection at this point. And we also don't give any forward-looking statements. As you know, we are not allowed to.

So another one from [ console ]. 1.3 million incremental conversion to 4G SIM users within one month. This is actually not within 1 month because registered users have been reported quarter-over-quarter. And I believe we have already answered this question.

I believe we have a strong planned investment rollout in Q3. At the same time, we have seen the economy has been recovering.

Yes, let me take the question, it's a question on what is -- on the effective tax rate, elaborate on the reason behind lower effective tax rate in Q3. Actually, it's in comparison a lower effective tax rate. If I recall correctly, 44% that we had. And it is compared to last year's quarter, 57% was the effective tax rate, so we are back to our normal level of tax rate that we had. So the reduction is basically coming from the high base that we had in last year's Q3, where we had some one-off adjustments in the tax line. So we are not on a lower tax rate, we're on the normal tax rate that we are just in comparison to last year, where we had the one-off adjustments in the tax line, as you might recall. This is a reduction.

Can you please elaborate a little bit more on Tower Co. licensing and the impact on your books? I believe this is a bit early to comment.

Yes, it's a bit early to comment. Yes, exactly.

Yes, questions related to Tower Co. Elaborate a bit more in terms on Tower Co. Again, it's a bit early to comment. We have only received the approval yesterday, so please give us a bit more time. Let's wait a bit more for any more questions.

Yes, I think there's a question to the average megabyte per user, in Q2 being 2.6 gigabyte, Q2 2020, so the previous quarter, compared to 2.58 in Q3. And the question is any particular reason for this being flat. I think we had in Q2, so in the previous quarter, quite a hike when all the home office start, which now has been flattened on this so -- but still on a very high level and a strong 45% growth compared to last year.

Okay. We'll wait 1 more minute for any more questions. Now there doesn't appear to be any more questions, so thank you, everyone. Thank you for listening in today. In case you have questions and you would like to get in touch with us, please send me an email. We are happy to take on meetings or answer you -- get back to you. Sorry, I see one more. What should be CapEx incrementally?

Yes. So at Q3, total CapEx at the end of Q3, it's at BDT 6 billion plus.

Yes, but the question is a bit vague.

Yes. So I think that's what we can say as reported.

Yes.

If it's meant to be what was the CapEx for the quarter incrementally or -- so I don't know what exactly is meant by this question, what should be the CapEx incrementally. But if it's meant the quarterly CapEx, stood at BDT 3.2 billion for Q3.

Okay. There doesn't appear to be anything else. So again, if you have any other questions, please feel free to get in touch with me. We can also set up meetings if you request. Okay. Thank you,everyone. Stay safe.

Thank you. Thank you. Bye.