Great Portland Estates Plc (GPE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

November 11, 2020

London Stock Exchange GB Real Estate Office REITs earnings 58 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Hello, and welcome to the Great Portland Estates Half Year Results Call. My name is Courtney, and I'll be your coordinator for today's event. Please note that this conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] And I will now hand you over to your host, Toby Courtauld, Chief Executive, to begin today's conference. Thank you.

Toby Courtauld

executive
#2

Thank you, Courtney, and welcome, everybody, to our interim results call. Thank you so much for joining us. The plan today is for us to take you through a couple of the highlights from the slides that we have published, both on our website. You can find the full presentation deck. And I'm going to refer in the talk and in, I'm sure, Q&A later to slide numbers. So it might be worth just making sure you have access to that. So I will do a bit of chat about the numbers and the market and operating conditions. Nick's going to help with that as well. And then at the end, we'll open up the floor for any questions. And with us to help answer that, we will have Steven Mew; Robin Matthews; Andy White; Simon Rowley, who's manfully stepping in for Marc Wilder, who is away on -- for family reasons; and we've also been joined by Janine Cole, who's going to help answer any questions you may have on the other release we put morning on our net 0 carbon road map and decarbonization fund. So that's the plan. Let me now kick off, please, with just some summary numbers. And you can see on the front of the press release and also on the presentation Slide 3, the headlines. Property valuation, down 6.6%. Developments for the first time in a while, underperforming, largely due to retail ERV declines. Portfolio ERV across the fees, down 3.9%. And our NAV, now NTA, down 7.8%. But we are paying a flat dividend compared to last year at 4.7p. Some key messages from us this morning, Page 4 in the deck. One, rock-solid financial position. This business is in as strong a financial position as ever. You've seen us do new financing at record-low pricing. Liquidity is high at GBP 465 million. LTV is still one of the lowest in the sector at 17.2%, and we have significant capacity for investments. And I'm sure we'll get into the investment market that Robin can help us with later on. And we -- as well as the investment market, clearly, we have opportunity internally. Our development book provides us with a really interesting pipeline of opportunities. It's an 11-scheme program today, 10 of which are in the pipeline, one still on site, 40% of the portfolio. And a significant opportunity across the investment portfolio for investment in improving stock, our stock and trade assets where we can make them fit for purpose, well designed, flexible, tech enabled. And typically, today, they're in low-rise buildings and off low rents. Very positively, point three, we have been leasing in what have been extraordinary conditions. Half 1, GBP 6.6 million leased, beating ERVs, up 4.6%. We've also got a good amount under offer, GBP 6.8 million, a healthy 13.9% ahead of the September ERVs. That's a very strong number, we think. And it's also followed up by the fact that we have a significant amount of discussions with prospective occupiers. We've described it as being in negotiations, another GBP 30 million in negotiations, the majority of which is in early pre-let discussions for some of our future development pipeline. So there is life in this market, and we are beating ERVs still, which is terrific. Very clear purpose, great values across the group. Never have they been more important than they are today, and you're seeing it in spades around the GPE team. We're really proud of our employee engagement numbers. 96% of GPE people say that this is a great place to work, and it is. So let me now hand over to Nick for some of the numbers, and then I'll come back and talk about the market in a minute. Nick?

Nick Sanderson

executive
#3

Thanks, Toby. Good morning, everyone. I'm going to jump straight into some of the key points, starting with the valuation on Slide 7. You can see there that the valuation decline was the main cause of the NTA per share fall of 7.8%. In the gray box, you can see this was really driven by retail values. They fell 18% given ERV declines of 13% and some yield expansion. You can also see that, on the other hand, our offices proved more resilient with values down 2.4%. Analyzing the portfolio a little further, our long-dated properties held up best, down 3.2%, whilst our committed developments fell 7.5% given retail rental declines on Bond Street and Oxford Street. Our pipeline assets fell by 10%, principally driven by retail exposure and short income duration, although as you know, many of these assets are stacked with latent development potential. And we'll touch on some of the near term in a moment. Lastly, fee income. If we start with an update on rent collection on Slide 8. The chart top left shows that we've now collected 83% of our first half rents. And having assessed each and every outstanding balance, we have made a GBP 5 million expected credit loss provision, of which GBP 4.8 million sits in the first half income statement. And as you can see, 79% of that provision relates to retail, hospitality and leisure occupiers. On the right, you can see that our September quarter's rent collection has continued to improve, with our collection rate now 80% compared to 72% for the June quarter at a similar date, so some good momentum there. In terms of how we're dealing and working with our occupiers, our efforts continue to be proactive and collaborative with our most challenged occupiers and -- as we seek to find the optimal rent reprofiling route. As at today, we have 30% of our rent roll now on monthly payment terms. And pleasingly, we've had a 100% collection rate from these occupiers. And there's a further 6% of the rent roll on deferral plans; that's typically 6 to 12 months. It is fair to say, though, we are taking a robust approach with the small number of our occupiers that fall into the can't pay, won't pay camp. And don't forget, we still have GBP 18.5 million of rent deposits. And as you can see, bottom right, our delinquency rate remains low. On Page 9, you can see that the credit loss provision, combined with lower wholly owned rental income given prior period sales and also securing vacant possession of 50 Finsbury Square ahead of potential refurbishment, resulted in EPRA EPS falling to 8.2p, and cash EPS is now 6.4p. This outturn, when combined with our strong financial position, supports a fully covered interim dividend of 4.7p. And importantly, this is further supported by our significant organic rent roll growth opportunity, which is set out on Page 10. Here, you can see there's 88% of potential uplift coming through a combination of our flex space, leasing up the balance of Hanover Square and Hickman, which are already 51% let or under offer, and also leasing up the remaining space at our on-site Oxford Street scheme, which completes next summer. And we now have clearer line of sight of the GBP 43.6 million of additional rent roll at our 3 near-term schemes with starts as early as January next year. So lots of rent roll growth for us to go for here. Turning to the debt side on Page 11, where the team has been busy further enhancing our maturity profile through issuing GBP 150 million of new USP notes, locking in a low blended coupon of 2.77% for nearly 15 years. And we've also recently repaid the JV debt secured on Mount Royal. As a result, our weighted average debt maturity is now nearly 9 years. Our available liquidity has increased to GBP 465 million. And if that were to be fully utilized, our weighted average interest great would fall to only 2%. Turning to the last slide from me on our financial strength. As you can see on the left, our LTV is low, only 17.2%, and we continue to have very significant headroom over our group debt covenants, including the ability to withstand further value falls of 63%, and earnings before interest could fall to 0. As shown on the right, we have significant investment capacity with illustrative GBP 750 million of acquisitions, leaving LTV well below 40%, assuming constant property values. So in this context, we continue to be very well positioned. Now back to Toby for a few comments on the market.

Toby Courtauld

executive
#4

Thanks very much, Nick. So I'm on Slide 14, just a couple of summary points from the graphs we're showing you here. And the conditions plainly remain challenging. We're seeing confidence levels that have been relatively weak, and that has been feeding into lower occupier demand that you can see from the chart on the middle top of that page, the blue bars showing that demand is down circa 45%, 46% from where they were last year. It's also feeding into under offers being lower, now beneath the 10-year average, that dotted line, for the first time in a while. But we are still seeing, as I described earlier, resilient occupier interest for 2 kinds of space: firstly, where flexibility and high service provision is offered; and secondly, where you have very high-quality, Grade A HQ opportunities. And that speaks to the amount of discussion we have ongoing for our pre-lets. The other point to note from this slide is top right. The supply side, we've often talked about this. We think it's tighter than most people have forecast. And if anything, it's going to get tighter still. Total vacancy is rising because tenant release space has been rising. But the high end, the quality end of the spectrum, Grade A supply, we think will fall, because we think the supply pipeline of new-build will fall by circa 30% versus what we thought this time last year over the next 3 years as people run from risk and/or put their cranes away. Turning to the investment market briefly. Some amazing statistics coming out of that world at the moment. You can see that from the chart bottom middle of this slide, where turnover has fallen off a cliff. And to the opposite of that, asset supply has jumped by almost 450% between May this year and November. Interestingly, also capital looking to buy has gone up as well over the last 12 months. It's now at around about GBP 40 billion, just shy of that, not 1 million miles away from the all-time high. And we are still seeing an appetite from investors, even though they can't travel, in London real estate, partly because it's -- because of its relatively high yields. And consequentially, given the monetary backdrop, we are not seeing really any distress. So opportunities are limited, but we are looking. We're looking hard. And as you can see, we have GBP 1.2 billion under review at the moment. And that number has been rising in the past few months. Don't forget, we have no need to buy and we have no need to buy because of the pipeline of opportunity, which I'll touch on in a minute. Over to slide then to Page 15, please. And this is just the outlook that we always publish. We've reinstated our guidance on rents in the context of this uncertainty. And you can see bottom left there the actual outturn for the year, down 0.7% for offices for the half year -- sorry, down 0.7% for the 6 months so far on offices, down 13% on retail, down 3.9% overall. For offices for the year, we're now estimating down 0 to down 5%, so a relatively small move. That's certainly relative to retail, where we think there is a bit more to come potentially on ERV declines. The yields on the right, we think that the prime yield, particularly in offices, will be very robust. And in some cases, we might even see compression because of that demand I was talking about earlier. For the average quality stock, logically, there should be some drift out of yields, but let's see. Just a couple of comments on the -- on our operations on Slide 16. We've touched in our releases, and Nick's just touched on the support we're giving our occupiers. We've worked incredibly hard on this, reaching out to all of them wherever we can. And some of our innovations over the last few years are really helping, particularly our award-winning Sesame app, which they can use to control their buildings contactless, and we can monitor air quality and so on. It's an incredibly valuable addition to our toolbox. It's also clear to us that we need to continue refining our model. And there are 2 key themes that we're referring to here, top right of that Slide 16. One, sustainability. It is now a must-have in our occupier community. And we believe that it is translating already into a rental premium, for example, our buildings versus poor buildings. And thus, it's become not just a moral imperative, as we said in our CMD back in the spring this year, it's now also an economic and a clear strategic imperative. And with our announcements this morning on the net 0 carbon road map, we think we're taking some great leadership in this arena. The second theme I want to touch on is the evolving pattern of work. Clearly, this is something that's been running for a while. COVID has probably accelerated it. We think occupiers, customers are looking for higher service provision across the board. They're looking for flexibility. Interestingly, we think that they are also looking for smaller scale and domestic comfort style buildings as well as HQs, so there's an interesting bifurcation going on there. And when we think about how we're supplying these 2 themes, bottom left of this slide, what you see is a business that is willing to deliver fully fitted, own front door space, on whole floors, on flexible terms, in tech-enabled and sustainable buildings and providing a services menu for occupiers to take as they wish. And we think that is generating decent levels of interest. It helps that 93% of our assets are of less than 10 stories. 82% of it is in less than 10,000 square foot units, so it appeals to this smaller scale idea I'm talking about. Meanwhile, the development pipeline is going to deliver HQ-style buildings with efficient floor plates, very sustainable credentials that will appeal to theme #1. And we're growing our flex offer. It's 255,000 feet today, up 16% since March. Average occupancy has held up very well at 74%, and we're generating a rental premium and an NPV premium, as you can see in that table. And we're looking at about a further 141,000 feet, which if we did all would take it up to about 19% of the book. So lots of really interesting initiatives for us to be pursuing in our operating end of the business as well as in developments on Slide 17. Just one point to make here, 3 near-term projects, starting from 2021. Nick showed us the overall rental increase opportunity there. These 3 schemes in isolation have the potential to deliver circa 160% uplift in their rents, which, as you might imagine, is significant. And we're working hard to begin to look for starts from next year. The one point I want to make on the decarbonization and net 0 carbon road map on Slide 18 is that we've today also launched a fund into which we will pay GBP 95 per tonne for the emissions that this business generates as an internal carbon price, which we will use to improve our buildings wherever we possibly can, and the idea being that it will help us change our behavior and drive investment and, crucially, drive innovation in trying to find ways and new materials for improving our carbon footprint and our operational carbon across the business. So some exciting things to look forward to there and I'm sure we'll touch on that in Q&A. Two more points for me, and then I'll wrap up, Slide 19. We're saying this morning that we are still of the view that we will be net buyers from here. Whilst we are finding limited -- very limited examples of distress, as I said earlier, we've got a good pipeline and deal flow of opportunities. Whilst we may not be about to trade, we are certainly interested in some of them. And as I say, I think we will be net buyers over the next few periods. It's worth, just on Slide 20, reminding ourselves the shape of the portfolio. And you can see that in the pie chart showing the breakdown between our various portfolio components: 32% pipeline, 40% active portfolio management, lots to go for in those 2 components. Long-dated has jumped from 13% -- sorry, from 7% to 20%, and that's because Hanover Square has now finished and is in that component of long-dated income. And as you will know, our game plan is typically once we have created the opportunity and generated a Grade A, top-quality asset at some point over the ensuing years, we're likely to reduce our interest in those assets. To finish, Slide 21. This is a business with lots of opportunity long term but equally one that's very well prepared for further near-term disruption, very strong balance sheet, sector-low LTV, high liquidity, low rents and clearly an experienced senior team who've been through 3 recessions together. We have lots of growth opportunities for us to use that balance sheet strength to exploit 40% in our development book. And don't forget, 92% of our assets are near Crossrail. And if ever Crossrail is needed, especially after an experience like COVID, it's now and it isn't far away. Very focused acquisition strategy and a really strong positioning for some of the themes that we're identifying today as being most important. Clear priorities, clear strategy, deep knowledge, demonstrable capital management discipline and, crucially, a strong and enduring belief in London. We still think that this great city of ours has a very strong future, arguably stronger as a result of COVID. Never has it been more obvious to me that people need to be congregating and getting together. And the work-from-home experiment, important as it's been, does not replace that, in our view. Great culture, great team, unifying values, supporting our occupiers and our communities and as I said earlier, terrific people engagement scores. So yes, near-term economic challenges, but this is a business in great shape and with a confident long-term outlook. So that's all we wanted to bring your attention to from the deck we've published this morning. Why don't we now hand over to questions? And Courtney, if you could marshal that for us, that would be great.

Operator

operator
#5

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes in from the line of Robert Duncan calling from Numis.

Robert Duncan

analyst
#6

So just one question from me, please, which is, could you just explain how the valuers are thinking about your use of tenant deposits in the valuation and then importantly, how tenants are responding to requests to top those deposits back up? I think back with your -- in your Q1 statement, you kind of commented off-line that clearly, retail customers were somewhat less happy about having to top that back up. But could you just give like an update on where we are? Because clearly, there's been a substantial use of tenant deposits by Great Portland, much more so than some of the other London office operators, because of your higher exposure to RHL tenants. So yes, any commentary there would be fantastic.

Toby Courtauld

executive
#7

Robbie, why don't we -- Nick, if you take the first part of that, and then perhaps, Steven, you could comment on experience that we're having in the deposit top-up game.

Nick Sanderson

executive
#8

I think the truth is that the way that the valuers think about the covenants is not hugely impacted by the take-up of rent deposits, because by definition, if we have a rent deposit, it's unlikely to be an occupier that would be viewed as a AAA covenant. However, what the valuers are doing is going through, as they always would be, each and every building and each occupier, and thinking does the yield need to change because of the covenants. And if the fact is that we are drawing down on the rent deposit and/or the occupier isn't paying rent where we don't have a rent deposit, some of that will be factored into the yield. But I wouldn't describe it as being a material -- having a material impact on the valuation, but it is being factored in. Steven do you want to take the second part?

Steven Mew

executive
#9

Yes, sure. Yes, rent deposits. We've drawn about GBP 6.5 million. As you all know, within the rent deposit deeds, there is a right for an automatic top-up. We haven't insisted on that automatic right of top-up at this moment in time. I mean it would seem a bit -- us drawing the deposit to help with the occupiers' cash flow and then insisting that it's top straight back up, doesn't really help. So what we have done is we said, look, we're effectively going to park that conversation until the new year when, hopefully, occupiers' cash flow will have improved.

Toby Courtauld

executive
#10

But Steven, it's fair to say, isn't it, that the obligation to top up has not been waived and so we'll come back to that, as you say?

Steven Mew

executive
#11

Yes, absolutely right. I mean it's not to say we haven't had top-ups. Only yesterday, we had an occupier who offered to top that deposit back up.

Operator

operator
#12

The next question comes in from the line of Max Nimmo calling from Kempen.

Maxwell Nimmo

analyst
#13

Just on the retail ERV guidance going down 15% to 25% for the year, has that surprised you at all in terms of how defensive you thought this could have been going into it back in March? And how much of that do you think is a kind of structural shift that we're seeing in wider retail? And how much of it is just down to the sort of [press effect] and the fact that very few people have been in the office since March? And does that -- I know it's quite embedded in your portfolio in terms of growing floor retail, but does that change your attitude to this exposure going forward? So that's my first question. And if I could just ask secondly, you talked a little bit about -- in the presentation about you increasing the flexible opportunities in the portfolio. Flex could go up to 20% of the overall portfolio, which means you'd be taking on more operational risk. Does that mean that fundamentally, you'll take a lower through-the-cycle financial risk? And if so, does that mean that you'll need to recycle more capital in order to keep total returns up? I know that leverage is obviously quite low at the moment, but through the cycle.

Toby Courtauld

executive
#14

Max, great questions. Quite complex question, the second one there. We could write books about that topic. But maybe what we should do there is Steven and Simon, Simon is our head of office leasing, if between you, you could think about that. And Nick, you might want to just comment on recycling capital as well. In relation to the first question, retail ERV guidance and our attitude to those assets. Yes, I think we probably were a little bit surprised on the ERV outturn from our valuers in one sense because it's a big number. On the other hand, this -- the retail community has been shut down for -- in Central London for much of the spring and early summer. It was just beginning to recover ahead of the second lockdown. And you could see that in footfall figures. The New West End Company published a very good sequence of data that you can dive into to see that. And the guidance that we've given for the year overall has really been informed by the first half outturn. And it felt to us that we needed to show a little bit more decline for the second half. Because when we were thinking through this, it was clear that there was going to be more pain to be felt in the retail community before it recovered, hence why we've increased slightly over H1 and hence because there's so little certainty about the outlook, why we have a fairly wide banding. And it's that -- it's the extent of that number, that is why our guidance for the group overall is down 5% to 10%, when the offices actually are performing pretty well. And as you heard me say at the beginning, the inquiry levels in offices feel pretty good just at the minute. In relation to our attitude, I mean we've always been very clear. We own specific assets for specific reasons. We tend not to take structural views on office versus retail versus PRS, residential, whatever. We're much more granular, and we look at individual assets, and we look at the opportunities within them. And if you look at our retail assets today, without exception, they all have very clear business plans that have opportunity for value creation. And often, that opportunity is diversification away from retail. So if you look at -- and deep into our pipeline, you have things like Mount Royal, 100% retail today. Future, it will be much less retail because we think we can get some office space into a new-build scheme there. It's got complexity, but we think that's the opportunity, and so on and so on and so on. So our attitude is driven by the business plan, and we don't currently see any reason to change the business plans that we've been working to because we think they still all work. So I hope that answers your question, Max, around retail. Let's go to the operational risk part of the question in flex, and perhaps we should start with Steven, please.

Steven Mew

executive
#15

Yes, greater flex. I mean one of the reasons, obviously, we're growing the flex model is because we're seeing demand for it. And the majority of that growth that Toby talked about on Slide 16 is through our sort of own front door model. So that's a fitted space and managed space increasingly being managed, which is typically on your 5-year leases, 3-year breaks. And the reasons for doing that are simply the economics are supportive of going down that route. And the only other thing I would also add was the 19% that we're talking about isn't necessarily a target. It's something that we're always looking at appraising, but we'll always do what's right for the building and positioning in the market.

Toby Courtauld

executive
#16

Thanks, Steven. Simon, do you want to just talk about the market as we're seeing it and perhaps touch on -- give a bit of color about the leasing interest, because that talks to Max' question around financial risk?

Simon Rowley

executive
#17

Yes. Certainly. From a fitted space perspective, as a proportion of all deals in the market, that has doubled during lockdown. So as Toby mentioned earlier in the presentation, COVID has accelerated pre-existing trends. And we've been playing in this area for the last 3 years. So we're quite well placed for it. The crucial thing is that we're sticking to the same principles that we have always stuck to. So we're doing the same number of deals because these are whole floors. The lease lengths, as Steven mentioned, are the same. And we manage all of our buildings in-house already. So from an operational perspective, not a lot needs to change for us to tap into exactly where the market is going. And I think from a wider market perspective on general leasing, we're seeing encouraging interest, particularly in our developments where the flight to quality, which is an often-used phrase, is very real. And I think occupiers who are looking to move at the moment are looking for best-in-class space that respond to sustainability, wellness, technology requirements and reflect or enhance their brand. And whilst there is undoubtedly tough conditions out there, I think the assets that we've got are certainly the kind of assets I would want to be marketing in this environment.

Toby Courtauld

executive
#18

Thanks, Simon. Nick, capital rotation consequences.

Nick Sanderson

executive
#19

Yes. Max, I think your question had 2 legs. One, does higher flex equal higher operational risk, therefore, lower LTV and more recycling? I think on the first, lower LTV, I think going from 10% to 20% of the office portfolio I don't think materially changes our risk profile, particularly when you think about the lease duration we're actually getting on the flex space that we are delivering. If we were to go from 10% to 100%, I think that clearly would influence some of the operational risk that we're taking. However, I think as you probably already understand, the biggest operational risk we take today is development. So again, that is going to be one of the largest considerations that we take when setting our LTV measures. But it answers the question really our 10 to 14 guidance remains today. In terms of recycling, one of the things that we highlighted in the deck was that we now have nearly 20% of the portfolio in long dated. Our discipline of reunderwriting assets every quarter persists. And I think there is a good chance that over the course -- over the next 6 to 24 months, some of those assets in the long-dated bucket will find their way into the investment market, particularly if we see the level of equity demand that we are seeing today for that kind of kit. So hopefully, that answers both legs of those questions.

Operator

operator
#20

The next question comes from the line of Rob Jones calling from Exane.

Robert Jones

analyst
#21

I have 2 or 3 questions in total. The first one was on Page 6 of your release this morning, you talk about the future of offices going forward. And one of the comments in there, I'll paraphrase, but it's basically saying the impact that COVID has had on individuals and workforces over the last year will have some lasting impact on how people use offices going forward. I wonder if that also, in your view, translates into a lower absolute aggregate quantum of demand for space and whether you've attempted to quantify that with a bit of caveat that obviously, you're clearly not leasing average space across the market, and you've obviously already talked about your kind of Grade A, HQ and flex product offering to try and take advantage of how people will shift their demand for space going forward. Secondly, maybe a couple for Janine, if she's on the line. Firstly, Toby, you mentioned that you're seeing a rental premium in some circumstances for sustainable space. I've heard other people talk about this recently. And I'm just wondering whether you can either quantify this today or maybe give a view on what sort of premium you could expect for a kind of high-rated BREEAM sustainable space that offers great quality, kind of health and well-being for a workforce going forwards. And then finally, just one on the carbon price per tonne. I think the transition fund announcement and idea is fantastic; GBP 95, also very ambitious. That's really good to see. I'm just wondering, A, why you chose GBP 95 specifically. And secondly, as you become a more sustainable business from a carbon emissions perspective, I guess the contribution to that fund will decrease. So how do you continue to fund kind of ongoing CapEx improvements from an environmental perspective? Is it just going to be from that fund or when you run out of proceeds associated with the value of that fund, you just take it from the ongoing business effectively?

Toby Courtauld

executive
#22

Yes. Rob, great questions, and I'll hand over to Janine in a sec to address the second 2 of those 3. On the first one, I mean, just -- let's just think about your own organization for a second. I think you are a brilliant example in a business which is moving to a best-in-class building and space that works for your operations of today. And that space will, by necessity, be slightly different to that than it was a generation ago. And you -- as you know, you've leased space in our building, our new developments in Oxford Street, on Newman Street. And you've done that because you believe that there is real value in having your people in the best possible environment they can be in because that's where they're at most creative. You need to be very near to great transport, which you are. You're opposite Crossrail. And the marginal cost of that is massively outweighed by the marginal benefit that your firm will generate from having those great credentials, be it health and well-being, et cetera, et cetera. And I think going forward, to your question about aggregate demand, going forward, I think the aggregate demand for that quality of space goes up. And I think the opposite is true for space that doesn't hit some of the criteria that we're talking about and some of the cultural benefits that organizations gain from being in great space. And I think that's a theme that's been running now for a while. It's not new. It's probably accelerated by COVID. It's probably changed at the margin by COVID in relation to the design of that space and some of the comforts that people now expect in that space. But the basic thesis holds. And I think, therefore, demand for great quality goes up and demand for really poor quality is probably lower. So from our perspective, that throws out 2 really interesting opportunities. Firstly, it improves the prospective value of great pipeline schemes that Andy and his team are building. Secondly, it provides us potentially with opportunities to buy those really poor assets that Robin and his team can go and access. So it plays to the strengths of a business like us that is very active in rotating and improving poor quality and turning it into great quality. Across the market, aggregate demand has fallen during COVID. But I think once we have a solution for COVID -- and this week, it's clearly generated some great news. I mean there's a long way to go, but it's positive nonetheless. As we get solutions to COVID, I expect to see demand come back quite quickly. Just my view, no real evidence for that, other than perhaps the depth of discussions were already happening with businesses who are looking well through COVID and planning for their future. Rob, let me hand over now to Janine to talk about this rental premium point.

Janine Cole

executive
#23

So in terms of the rental premium, I don't think -- I think it's quite difficult to actually put a price on the actual part of the premium that you can attach to sustainability and well-being. And I think we probably talked about this when we spoke when you put out your report earlier on in the year. And I think that it is quite difficult to actually isolate what applies to sustainability. But I do think it is a specific part of producing a prime office. And I think that also -- what we found as well is that we tend to let the space quicker as well by having higher sustainability credentials of our buildings. You also asked some questions around the internal carbon price and how we set it. So as you would expect, we looked at where the market was and put the price through development appraisals. I think what we found was that it was important for the price to be high enough to actually have a behavioral impact on behavioral change and to really push our teams to consider -- embody carbon within the design of our buildings. And in terms of how do we continue to keep the funds going into out decarbonization front, I don't think we're going to need to worry about that for a while. We know that there's plenty of opportunity to go out between now and 2030. And also, if you look at sort of the types of assets that we typically buy, I think that as we purchase new assets, the decarbonization funds will give us an opportunity to bring those assets in and retrofit them and ultimately drive value. So I don't know whether that asks -- answers all your questions.

Toby Courtauld

executive
#24

Andy, do you want to just comment on -- and we've certainly seen some evidence from some of the agencies around the pricing and what your experience in development so far has been?

Andrew White

executive
#25

Yes. Just also to pick up on Rob's first point, Rob, what we are seeing is, I think, that the trends that were developing a few years ago of densification offices is now starting to reverse. And it's very much about having a variety of workplace in the buildings, which is something that we're really looking to develop as we bring our pipeline forward. I think Jones Lang have published some research recently showing that there is early evidence of a green premium starting to emerge in the market. So they're talking about potential rental premiums of up to 10% for sustainable buildings, lower voids. And I think it's as much as to, as a green premium emerges, will you add around discount that could be applied to unsustainable buildings going forward as well?

Toby Courtauld

executive
#26

That's great. Simon, anything to add on the densification point?

Simon Rowley

executive
#27

Just that whilst it's a trend at the moment, if it were to endure and we went back to dense levels of just 5 years ago, CBRE estimate that, that would equate to an additional 20 million square feet across Central London, which does give some comfort to the sort of levels of demand that are out there and also goes back to that supply shortage argument that you put forward at the start of the call.

Toby Courtauld

executive
#28

Okay. Rob, I hope that helps.

Operator

operator
#29

The next question comes in from the line of Marc Mozzi calling from Bank of America.

Marc Louis Mozzi

analyst
#30

I have 2 questions for me, essentially. The first one is, if I'm correct, it seems that you have recorded a [pre-shop] reduction in your administrative and property costs in H1, about GBP 4 million, if I'm reading well your numbers. What is that? Is that SG&A? Or is that property cost, firstly? And secondly, is that going to be a recurring gain compared to what we've seen last year? That's my #1 question. My #2 question will be about what sort of level of pre-let for your near-term pipeline or schemes would you consider to start committing for new development?

Toby Courtauld

executive
#31

Thanks, Marc. Nick, if you'd like to address the first one, and I'll have a go at the second one. And maybe, Simon, we might just talk about the pre-let market as well.

Nick Sanderson

executive
#32

Sure. I mean we've broken out in the walk the split between the reduction of property costs and admin between the 2 buckets, and it's predominantly in property costs. The main driver of our lower property costs relative to where they were for the prior period a year ago is that, one, we've maintained a low void rate. If you strip out the space that's recently completed, it's in the mid-2s. So we've got lower empty rates than we had in the prior period. As you've also seen during this period of lockdown, there's been lower leasing velocity. So there's also been lower leasing commissions in our property costs. I would hope that going forward, we have higher leasing commissions because there's more leasing. But equally, I would hope that we maintain our void rate where it is. In terms of the reduction in admin costs, that's principally due to lower performance-related pay. I won't comment on which way I'd like that to go from here. But I don't think there's any structural change to either our property costs or our admin costs that you can identify from this 6-month period.

Toby Courtauld

executive
#33

Thanks, Nick. In relation, Marc, to your second question around committing to the next 3 and pre-let, I mean, it's a complicated equation always. And it relates to not just the risk of pre-lets but also the exact detail around planning and the obligations within planning, the state of the market more broadly, the state of the construction market, the readiness to start and all the rest. Many -- there are many inputs that need to go into that debate. We're in the middle of that debate in relation to 50 Finsbury, where the earliest potential start date is January next year. We have the 2 other schemes that make up those 3 near-term projects, City Place House and New City Court in, respectively, core City and South Bank. In both cases, we're in planning dialogue at the minute. So we're not quite ready to start there and the earlier starts are in '22. So it comes down to, in the very near term, at least 50 Finsbury. And the interest levels there are very encouraging. And let me hand over to Simon just to give a sense of how the pre-let market is shaping up.

Simon Rowley

executive
#34

Yes. I think as we said before, we look at the whole of the pipeline in Central London. And over the next 5 years, we estimate between 2 million and 2.5 million square feet of new Grade A space coming on to the market each year. And if you compare that to the long-term average take-up of new Grade A space, which is over 5 million square feet, clearly, it points to a potential imbalance if demand returns in any shape or form. And the pipeline as it stands today is already circa 50% pre-let. And we have got discussions with a number of parties for schemes that we don't yet have planning for, which are delivering in 2025, 2026. And I think that's a pretty encouraging sign that there are businesses out there who, like we, see that the mid- to long-term attraction of London is still very real. And the final thing I would say is that, now more than ever, I think, track record in delivering quality buildings on time with a track record of also building a relationship with an occupier is going to be key. So the strength of your counterparty when you're making a decision on whether to take a pre-let is going to be very, very important. And I think that we clearly have that in spades.

Operator

operator
#35

The next question comes in from the line of Thomas Buisson calling from Clearance Capital.

Thomas Buisson;Clearance Capital;Analyst

analyst
#36

Just 2 for me. The first one is on the lettings that you have under offer, the GBP 6.8 million. You've indicated that these are about 5.5% above March 2020 ERVs and close to 14% above September ERVs. Could you just give a bit of color as to what is driving that differential? Is it more the fact that ERVs have come down, specifically sort of in retail? Or should we be thinking more of it as your ability to kind of see some deals going through on the office side significantly ahead of the September ERVs? And the second question, I think it was largely answered on the pre-let question just before mine. But you've highlighted a market where yields are broadly stable, maybe pushing up a little bit in secondary space. But rents are coming off roughly across the board. And so with capital values kind of holding where they are, it kind of dampens your ability to acquire. But at the same time, the attractiveness of development is also coming down with ERVs coming down. And I think the profit on cost that you've highlighted today are probably a bit weaker than what you expected earlier in the year, what you expected at the beginning. So just trying to get a bit of a sense of how well you think sort of Great Portland can execute on the business strategy in this type of environment.

Toby Courtauld

executive
#37

Okay. Thanks, Thomas. Why don't we -- Steven, do you want to give a little bit of color first up about the lettings that we've got under offer, clearly without revealing state secrets? And then I might have a go at the second one.

Steven Mew

executive
#38

Sorry, you think after 7 months, I'd be able to turn my mute button off. Yes. I mean under offers, as you say, beating ERVs. I mean it's a mixed bag of retail and offices. So it's sort of difficult to -- on a general point, I think it's a bit of both of what you described between the offices and the retail. But it's encouraging that we've got conversations going on in both sectors.

Toby Courtauld

executive
#39

It is indeed encouraging. And I think also, it's difficult to generalize when we're not talking about an enormous pool of deals. So reaching macro generalizations about it is relatively challenging. I think the reason we're so positive about the numbers generally is that it shows that there is good life out there. And to Simon's point, there's good life for great quality, and those early discussions are very encouraging. As always, some of those pre-lets and some of those lettings that we have under offer won't happen. That's the way of the world. And indeed, equally, we'll get some tomorrow that weren't there yesterday. So there is quite a lot of dynamism in that market at the minute. In relation to your second question, Thomas, around development and the prospects for it and how we feel about that, I mean, I go back to what I said earlier. This is a crucial part of the GPE offer. Our track record in pre-letting our developments is very strong. I think Slide 71 has a summary of everything that we've done in that arena over the last 15 or so years. I don't see there for being -- I don't see there any reason why we shouldn't carry on in that front. And in some cases, some of these schemes will deliver less good returns than we had hoped. But in the main, from today's numbers, when we get out the other side of COVID, when demand for great quality space, as I described earlier, is recovering and strengthening even further, there is every prospect, particularly in a virtually 0 interest rate environment, for great quality assets to be as appealing to the global investor as ever, if not more. And I don't see any reason why we shouldn't be delivering into that longer-term demand. We need to build the best quality space we can. We need to hit Janine's requirements from a sustainability perspective and a well-being perspective and all of the other things that the themes that we're playing to now require us to deliver, and we will. And I've got pretty good confidence we'll clear a good proportion of those schemes, which will then allow us to either monetize as we sometimes do or hold for long-term income as we choose. Thanks, Thomas. Great questions. We probably got time for one more. We're aware some peer colleagues of ours are announcing at 10, so we might see if we can come off the line within the next 3 or 4 minutes. Anybody got any more who'd like to ask us?

Operator

operator
#40

So the final question does come in from the line of Paul May calling from Barclays.

Paul May

analyst
#41

Guys, can you hear me okay?

Toby Courtauld

executive
#42

Yes, we can. Thanks, Paul.

Paul May

analyst
#43

Thanks for the presentation. All seems to be sort of on -- people just wait-and-see mode, it seems, from the various commentaries that are out there; some positives, some negatives. Just wondering on the flex leasing that you say has been increasing. Is that from what you would have seen as traditional occupiers? Or is that sort of traditionally flex occupiers that are coming to you from others who may or may not be having more difficulties than you have from, let's say, financial sense? And you mentioned on the work from home that, I think I agree, it's not going to be exclusively work from home moving forwards, but I think there are quite clear evidence that there's going to be an increase in partial work from home as we move forward in that sort of post-COVID world. Do you think that that has the potential to impact on overall tenant demand? Or do you see offsetting factors, the de-densification you mentioned and people are still taking space for 100% of employees into the future? Or do you think there will be some impact from that partial work from home and sort of hybrid model effectively going forwards?

Toby Courtauld

executive
#44

Thanks, Paul. I'm sure you will be at the more positive end of the commentary when you come to write your piece about us. In relation to occupiers more broadly, perhaps, Simon, you'd like to just touch on where we're finding it's coming from and whether it's, to Paul's question, the traditional group, whether there's a change going on in there. And then I'll come back to the work from home point.

Simon Rowley

executive
#45

Yes. I think pre-COVID, Paul, we were attracting almost all our flex occupiers out of serviced office operations. So they were coming to us almost as they mature as a business and then looking for a higher brand profile and some more privacy and security. I think going forward, there's a good chance that we're going to attract more traditional occupiers as well. So the corporates who potentially don't want to make a decision in the environment that we're in at the moment want to take advantage of the fact that this is fitted and fully managed. And I think we've seen some evidence of that during lockdown with BP taking space from the office group just on that exact basis. I think the other thing that I would mention is that the pre-let discussions we're having, flex is a key component of those discussions, too, insofar as those who want to make a decision today about their future headcount in 5 years inevitably want some fluidity and elasticity around their space take. And us providing flex space in our developments will give that opportunity, too, and make them more attractive. I think just to the second point, I think there is an inherent magnetism around an office. And so I think an office providing an experience to an occupier is going to be key in the attraction of staff back to the office. And I think that despite what we said about densification, I would also add that an office needs to deal with peak demand. So even though there could be a hybrid working environment, the office has to cater for when the maximum number of people are in the office, which, on some days, may well be 100% of the workforce.

Toby Courtauld

executive
#46

Thanks Simon. And Paul, I think the other point just to make here is many of the themes around work from home, principally being flexibility and flexible working practices, were running before COVID. They were clearly given a turbo boost by COVID. So it was already happening. And I also think you need to take with a huge pinch of salt what you hear some leaders say on the topic, leaders of large employers, and instead look at their actions. And if you look at what's been happening in Central London in the last month, I can think of at least 2 of the FAANGS who've either leased more space or actually bought their buildings. These are not the actions of businesses who are preparing for a mass exodus to everybody working from home. So I agree with Simon entirely. I think actually, the strength of well-specified, great designed offices in fabulous locations on top of great transport just got more important, not less. And that's where we're playing. That's what we will supply. Okay. We need to wrap up. Thank you, everybody. This is a business, as I said at the beginning, in great shape. We've got a confidence to our long-term outlook, which I think is compelling. But we're also prepared for short-term disruption, as I said at the beginning. We've got great, clear priorities and a strong culture and a great team that can help us deliver on all of those ambitions. Please do feel free to get in touch to ask any further questions you haven't been able to cover off today. But for now, thank you very much for listening. Goodbye.

Operator

operator
#47

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your handsets.

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