Great Portland Estates Plc (GPE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Well, morning, everybody. It's just gone 9:00, and what a pleasure it is to see you all live, for those of you in the room. I think some might be in the [ ease ] of somewhere, but wherever you are, thank you for joining us. It's a real privilege to have your time. We're going to spend about half an hour just going through a deck of slide, giving you a whole lot of information. And then, as ever, we'll hand the mics over to you. And I think we'll also have some online questions as well if people can work out how that works. So let me start by just introducing this presentation. And at our interim in November, you'll remember that I talked about the very real signs of recovery gathering momentum in London's economy and in our property markets. And our results today bear that out. And whilst macro conditions have weakened near-term prospects since our trading update in April, as you'll hear from us over the next 30 or so minutes, if anything, our conviction in both our strategic positioning and London's longer-term attractions has strengthened since then. So over the next few slides, Nick and I will give you the main messages from our results and provide more color behind our positive conviction, looking at new business, the market, a broader business update and finishing with our outlook. As I said, we'll then open it up to you, and we'll have much of our executive committee talent on hand to answer any questions you may have and notice the e-mail address if you want to submit questions online. So then let's kick off with the headlines, and these are robust results. Our property valuation was up 6.1% over the year with a strong pickup in pace over the second half and a great performance from our developments, up 48.6%. ERVs grew too, up 3%, leading to a total property return of 9.4%, outperforming the MSCI Central London monthly index by 2.4 percentage points and delivering a strong total accounting return of 8.8% for the year. Now before I summarize our operating performance, I want to remind you briefly of how our strategy is evolving to meet customers' changing needs. You'll recognize our strategic givens shown here. For example, 100% Central London, repositioning properties, low leverage, sustainability as an imperative. And we've added customer-first thinking as essential to our success to make sure that every decision we make is anchored in satisfying their needs, summarized on the right. And those of you who were able to join our Capital Markets Day know that we are all over delivering on these needs. For example, we've introduced useful technologies such as our Sesame app across the portfolio, helping us to create the world's first Platinum SmartScore building at the Hickman in Whitechapel. And so to help deliver for customers, we refined our office products under 2 complementary and overlapping business streams: HQ repositioning, being the creation of significant buildings typically on longer occupancy like Hanover Square; and Flex, smaller individual floors occupied on more flexible contracts to suit smaller growing businesses, think Dufour's Place. Within these business streams, we're now offering them a clear choice of different spaces that are either ready to fit, fitted, fully managed or delivered through one of our partnerships. So we have created a differentiated growth strategy, which will deliver significant extra revenue and capital return for little additional risk than we have traditionally taken. And we're already seeing the benefits of our refined strategy across the business, which is operating well from a position of both strength and opportunity. First, we've just delivered a record leasing year, GBP 38.5 million signed, as you can see on the bar chart, that's 3x last year's number and a 9.8% beat versus ERV, up from 2.4% last year with some strong retail deals more than 12% ahead of ERV. And Flex played its part too, making up 34% of the total. As a result, our vacancy rate is lower at 4.4%. Most of it is prime, and today we have GBP 9.4 million under offer at a premium to March '22 ERVs and a further GBP 32 million in negotiation. So healthy momentum and more to come. We also have deep opportunity across GPE, both organically and in new business. In our Flex operations, we have the ambition for organic growth from the 13% of our offices it represents today to 25% by 2027, and we'll be adding more through acquisition, as you'll hear from Nick in a minute. And also in our HQ repositioning activities, we're working on 8 schemes covering 1.3 million feet, and we'll be investing some GBP 1.1 billion across our 4 near-term projects alone. We've also had recent new business success acquiring 2 great Flex opportunities with a further GBP 1 billion under review today. And with our financial strength and absolute given, built on our low LTV and plentiful liquidity at a low cost, we have significant capacity to exploit this opportunity, drawing on funds under our sustainable finance framework. To add this all up, and we have material growth potential, organic income growth of some 89% to which we are now adding through acquisition and the ability to capitalize on the opportunity with balance sheet strength and a fully engaged REIT team where we've been enhancing both our operating capabilities and our brand. Plus, we remain passionate believers in our capital city. We think London's relative attractiveness is growing. And while the near term has become more uncertain, its constant evolution is solidifying its dominant world city status, ensuring its long-term growth and more on this in a minute. But first of all, over to Nick to look at the results in more detail.

Thank you, Toby. Good morning, everyone. Very nice to see you all. I'll take you through the details of our financial results and positive valuation performance. I'll also cover our extensive capacity for investments into both prime HQ office developments and expanding our Flex offering and we're adding to our growth opportunity, too, through acquisitions. So starting with the numbers. The group's property portfolio [indiscernible] more than GBP 2.6 billion, up 6.1% on a like-for-like basis. EPRA NTA rising 7.2% to [ 835p ] and EPRA-LTV rose to just over 20%. As expected, [ EPRA earnings ] fell to GBP 27.4 million, taking EPRA EPS to 10.8p. And with our strong financial position, we are paying a total dividend of 12.6p. Overall, our total accounting return was positive 8.8%. Now let's look at the 7.2% NTA increase driven by the property valuation uplift, adding 54p over the year with a particularly strong second half performance. Office values rose 7.9%, supported by ERV growth of 4.1%. At our buildings with 40% or more of the space committed to Flex, values were up 8.6%, with the values also reducing the yield on the fully managed service profit to 8.5%, reflecting its increased predictability. On the retail side, values in ERVs nudged up in the second half, leaving values flat for the year, with prime London retail appearing to have now passed the trough. On a like-for-like basis, our net zero carbon committed development at 50 Finsbury Square was the star performer, up 49% following the office pre-let with our long-dated properties, including our landmark Hanover Square scheme, also posting a strong uplift of 12%. Returning to the walk, our profitable sale of 160 Old Street added 1p with EPRA earnings delivering another 11p, whilst dividends reduced NTA by 13p. With other items of 3p, NTA stand at 835p. Turning to earnings where we guided to a decline from GBP 40.1 million in FY '21. Rental income was up GBP 0.5 million with ECL provisions falling GBP 3.6 million as rent collection rates improved and delinquencies reduced across our high-quality diversified customer base. At the same time, the GBP 3.1 million of new income recognized from recently completed developments was offset by income foregone to achieve VP to deliver new developments. JV fees increased by GBP 1.4 million, including fees on the Old Street sale. JV earnings rose by GBP 5.4 million, given the GBP 3.9 million surrender premium received at Regent Street. In a record leasing year, property costs rose GBP 8 million given short-term higher vacancy costs and increased leasing commissions and marketing spend. Admin costs increased by GBP 9.8 million, predominantly driven by higher provisions for performance-related pay, alongside our headcount investments in enhancing our customer-first and Flex operating capabilities and there's more details in the appendices. With interest and other movements of GBP 2.2 million, overall earnings were GBP 27.4 million, resulting in EPRA EPS of 10.8p. For FY '23, we expect further EPS reductions following the Old Street sale, expected lower surrender premia receipts and the impact of securing VP to deliver more Flex space and our near-term developments. However, we've been here before in the early stages of the last development cycle, where we significantly reduced EPS and ran with a dividend not fully covered to facilitate the subsequent doubling of total returns. And this time, our focus on creating development surpluses through HQ repositioning and higher income through Flex will combine to deliver attractive prospective total returns. So with this outlook and maintaining our progressive dividend policy, we are paying a final dividend of 7.9p, delivering a total dividend of 12.6p, bang in line with the prior year. We also continue to have a significant organic rent roll growth opportunity with a potential 89% uplift. Starting from today's rent roll of GBP 104.1 million, up 9% in the year, leasing our void and refurb space will add GBP 9.5 million of rents, nearly 2/3 of which will be delivered as Flex space. And we have another GBP 4.9 million available through reversion capture shown in green. Beyond the existing GBP 17.5 million of lettings at our 3 recently completed developments, there's another GBP 9.9 million available, more than 1/3 of which is under offer or in negotiation. And shown in dark blue, through the Inmarsat pre-lets, we've already secured GBP 8.5 million of the GBP 9 million total rent potential at Finsbury Square. Beyond this, are 4 near-term schemes, all with exemplary sustainability credentials and prospective starts in the next 24 months could add an extra GBP 59 million of rent or [indiscernible] million total. So overall, this gives a total potential uplift of more than GBP 92 million. And we can deliver on these organic growth ambitions, given our financial strength. Our LTV remains one of the very lowest in the sector, having adopted the new [ EPRA measure ], it stands at 20.5% today, a little higher than under our historic reporting basis, given the inclusion now of net current payables. As shown bottom left, our weighted average debt maturity is strong at 7 years, 96% of our debt is on a flexible unsecured basis, our available liquidity is more than GBP 390 million, which if fully utilized, would reduce our weighted average interest rate to only 2.1%. Our debt is sustainable, too, with our market-leading ESG-linked RCF and ICMA-aligned sustainable finance framework issued in the year. Looking ahead, we have potential investment spend totaling GBP 980 million into Flex office space and HQ developments, including GBP 836 million into our 4 near-term schemes, giving prospective total development commitments of GBP 1.1 billion. As the purple line shows, this would result in pro forma LTV rising to just over 40% by 2027. Although, remember, that's before factoring in any prospective sales or development surpluses, where we typically seek at least 15% profit on cost. And given the CapEx phasing, we have capacity today for acquisitions too. As ever, we've been actively seeking out accretive opportunities, and we've made good progress since the interims. Of the 11 properties, which we had under detailed review, 4 of them subsequently traded within 10% of our view of fair value. All 4 were suitable for Flex and 2 of them we bought at fair value for GBP 67 million. We've been refining our Flex acquisition criteria as we build our knowledge and capabilities with Gresse Street and St. Andrew Street, both delivering on our requirements. They are in amenity-rich locations, both are well suited for delivery to customers in 2,000 to 6,000 square foot units and will provide internal and external amenity space with a high-quality ground floor experience. We expect to deliver both as fully managed space, enhancing their sustainability credentials and targeting 6%-plus stabilized income yields. So turning to the detail and starting with Gresse Street, which we bought in March for less than GBP 900 per square foot. It's in the heart of Fitzrovia and will achieve VP next year ahead of a GBP 21 million refurbishment. We're expecting to achieve headline rents above GBP 200 per square foot. We'll transform the building from EPC-E to -B, and we underwrite the purchase of a prospective income yield of 6.3% and ungeared IRR of 7.5%. And last week, we completed the off-market purchase of 6/10 Andrew Street for GBP 30 million, equating to GBP 650 per square foot for a stripped-out well-designed office building less than 500 meters from Farringdon Crossrail station and bang opposite Goldman's new HQ. After the refurbishment, which will add both area and amenity, we'll be targeting a stabilized yield of 6.8%. And you can see bottom left, our deal flow remains good with GBP 1 billion of acquisitions currently under review, predominantly off market. They play into our strategic focus on centrally located Flex opportunities along with buildings suitable for repositioning through developments or refurbishments into HQ exemplar offices. As ever, we're exploring JV and swap deal opportunities, and we're working hard to identify and unlock environmentally-stranded asset purchases. And as the year progresses, we expect that there'll be more GPE acquisitions to follow. Staying with sustainability. Following the launch of our social impact strategy, we're proud to have created more than GBP 600,000 of social value in the year, and we'll look to deliver more in the year ahead, including through our co-mentoring program with Arrival Education. We've also formed new strategic partnerships with XLP and National Energy Action who focus on creating positive futures for young people on inner-city London estates and alleviating fuel poverty. Together, they'll help us deliver our purpose for our customers too. So to wrap up from me, we've delivered a strong uplift in NTA and our 8.8% TAR is back well above our cost of capital. We're pleased to have maintained the level of our ordinary dividend, and as ever, we have sector-leading debt metrics. We have a significant organic growth opportunity, including potential rent roll uplift of 89% and prospective near-term HQ development commitments of GBP 1.1 billion. We've made our first acquisitions since 2017, both focused on Flex and with more to come. And we have significant capacity for investments and are well positioned to access incremental capital as and when needed, including through our disciplined approach to recycling. So overall, GPE is in great financial shape, and now back to Toby for a few comments on the market.

Thank you, Nick. So conditions in our markets, and it is clear to us that the economic progress we identified in November is being impacted by current uncertainties. But when we think about the medium term, London's economic fundamentals are arguably becoming more compelling. Barriers to entry are rising, for example, in the planning system and through sustainability concerns, and the supply-demand equation is moving in our favor, all of which will serve to support our leasing markets. So whilst 3-year GVA forecasts are lower than 6 months ago, they're still positive and London is expected to outperform the U.K. Plus, as you can see on the right, London jobs data remains healthy. And bottom left, you can see that active demand and take-up have been recovering well and space under offer today, shown in blue, is higher than it was in March and easily above pre-pandemic levels. So no discernible impact from the current uncertainties. And even if job growth slows, we still expect to see a steady stream of businesses trade up to a better space to meet their employees' hybrid working needs and their sustainability objectives as they seek to recruit and retain the best people. But when you look at the supply side of the equation, new supply remains very tight and it will just get more so from here with tighter planning and sustainability requirements. We think completions will total 3.1 million feet per annum through to 2025, as you can see in the box on the right. So against the 10-year average newbuild take-up of 4.8 million feet per annum, we think there is an impending new Grade A supply shortage of circa 55%, and that's before we take into account any reductions in prospective deliveries due to macro uncertainties hitting developers' risk appetites. So we think the balance of supply and demand of Grade A stock looks potentially extremely favorable. We also think that the Flex market story looks promising too. We know demand has shown steady growth over the past 15 years, as shown on the chart. And from here, we expect 10% to 15% per annum growth, leading to circa 30% of all corporate office space in the U.K. being given over to a flex arrangement by 2030. We go further. We think Flex is already the default choice for space of less than 5,000 feet, especially in progressive cities like London and will increasingly be so for spaces up to 10,000 feet. A quick word on retail. We said in November that we will likely pass the trough and our own letting and ERV performance in the second half would back that up. From here, there is a risk that weaker consumer sentiment will defer the recovery and we'll be watching closely. For now, though, the West End streets are busier, tourist footfall is up, our own inquiry levels are encouraging, and don't forget, Crossrail opens next week, really. Turning briefly to the investment market and Q1 turnover was strongly up versus last year. And with asset supply and equity looking to buy both broadly steady, there is still some GBP 5.70 looking to buy for every GBP 1 of asset available, as you can see on the chart, with Asian, German and U.S. investors all active again, providing support to both current and prospective asset pricing. And so as you heard from Nick earlier, we expect to build on our recent success in investment markets and our deal flow remains healthy. Whilst we look, we have plenty of opportunity to invest across our existing portfolio to generate growth. So to sum up our view on London market conditions. Current uncertainties have softened some of the key rental drivers such as GDP growth and measures of confidence and business investment. By contrast, employment growth, falling vacancy and tightening development completions will, we think, all provide support to rents. And looking at our own portfolio, shown bottom left, we delivered rental growth towards the top of our range for last year, which, you'll recall, we revised up in November, so a decent result. For the coming year, we expect our high-quality spaces to lease well and so are forecasting offices up 0% to 6%. And with a slightly more positive story for retail than last year, we're suggesting overall portfolio rents will be up 0% to 5% for the year. For yield, we've marginally softened our expectations from November, given higher interest rates and weaker sentiment. But we still think the significant amount of money will support conditions in the near term, keeping prime yield broadly flat, as shown bottom right, with potentially some upward pressure to secondary yields, but the best will outperform the rest over the long term. And next, I want to give you a brief operational update and some more color on our record leasing year, where we saw strong growth in both leasing volumes and in deal terms. In retail, volumes were up 350% versus last year, beating ERVs by a significant 12.3%, including the West End's largest retail letting of the year on Regent Street. ERVs themselves also turned a corner, rising by 0.2% in the second half. Across our HQ repositioning activities, we signed GBP 17.4 million, the majority of which was in newly completed developments, all up a healthy 7.4% beat to March '21 ERV. And finally, in Flex, we leased GBP 8.8 million over the year, beating ERVs by an even stronger 11.7%. Plus, ERVs are rising here too, up 7.9% over the year. And as I said earlier, we think there is more to come. Crucially, average lease terms were 3.1 years across our fitted and fully managed product lines, so not materially different to where we would be for a ready to fit deal, but we let the space far quicker to [ seek ] significantly more, and we're clearly mining a rich stream of demand. And it makes money too, as you can see on the table top right. We're beating our targets across all 3 of our principal measures, generating a yield on cost of 6.6%, way ahead of market rates. So where next? Answer, more growth, grow organically towards our 600,000 square foot target, convert through refurbishment of our recent acquisitions, adding some 90,000 feet and keep adding through further acquisitions. Whilst now that the teams are restructured, we can focus on driving operating efficiencies, on growing our already very strong relative Net Promoter Score, on implementing our EPC strategies, investing up to GBP 20 million to put our portfolio well ahead of the 2030 deadline and always with one eye to monetizing our efforts through sale, and we're reviewing some GBP 200 million today. So lots more income and value upside to come. Looking at value, let's have a quick look at our development program where we have a strong platform for growth. As you know, we have 1 committed project, 50 Finsbury Square, we have 2 new major refurbishments at Gresse Street and St. Andrew Street, both for Flex, we have our 4 near-term projects starting now and a further 3 medium-term schemes, bringing the total to 10 across 1.4 million feet. Focusing briefly on 50 Finsbury, our 129,000 square foot major refurbishment has exemplary sustainability credentials, hitting all 4 pillars of our 2020 statement of intent. The offices are fully pre-let, well ahead of ERV. The retail is going well at more than 50% under offer, and our returns, shown bottom right, are strong. Turning to our 4 near-term schemes that all prime, all with exemplary sustainability credentials and given each is currently valued in their existing state, they give us strong growth potential, particularly, given the supply shortage I referenced earlier. So good timing. Top right, New City Court is our largest project at almost 390,000 feet. Our planning process is now formalized, and we expect an outcome during Q4 this year. And at both French Railways House and Minerva, the planning process is proceeding, and we are anticipating starts towards the end of next year. Taken together, they will deliver 918,000 feet, an increase of 118% and lots more income. Total CapEx of almost GBP 840 million will create value, too. Just remember, this represents circa 40% of our net assets. In other words, they move the needle. And all 4 best-in-class, all 4 eminently pre-lettable. Turning briefly to look at Aldermanbury Square, where demolition has started to create a superb office building of almost 320,000 feet, up 82% with fantastic new public realm and amenities, and we're aiming to exceed our 2030 embodied carbon targets well ahead of schedule. With CapEx of almost GBP 270 million, the team is working hard to minimize the impact of inflation, and we have appropriate contingency allowances in our numbers. Today, we have encouraging levels of pre-leasing interest, and we are forecasting healthy financial results, shown bottom right. So let's sum up our activities and consider where next for GPE. And as you can see on the top left, last year, like the year before, we were a net investor, including CapEx. For this year, I expect more of the same, in part, driven by our HQ repositioning program across our 4 near-term schemes, where we're targeting healthy accretive returns. We'll also be investing further to generate Flex growth. Bottom left, you can see our organic ambition, which, all else equal, sees growth of 140% and gets us to 25% of the office portfolio by 2027. But it isn't equal, we've already made 2 acquisitions, and there's more to come, all the while, targeting a minimum 6% running yield. So with further asset sales likely recycling capital into acquisitions, this is a business with a clear operating direction, maps out with a strong focus on our customer-first program, sustainability as an imperative and always [ targeting ] returns ahead of our cost of capital. And as we think about our sizable and exciting opportunity, this is also a business with clear strategic priorities centered on our focus and our deep knowledge. It's also evolving, adjusting to changing customer needs, where our 2 complementary business streams give us a compelling and differentiated strategy. Looking beyond short-term uncertainties, we think medium term, our markets are looking positive with supported employment indicators, good demand for prime and flex spaces, rising barriers to entry with an impending supply shortage and healthy investor demand. And we can indeed look beyond the short term because we have an enduring belief in London, both absolutely and relatively. It's in one of the world's most attractive mixed-use locations. It has new industries growing at pace, think life sciences, its best retail is improving and, of course, Crossrail opens next week, 93% of our assets are near a station, whilst our portfolio is full of opportunity in HQ repositioning where we really can move the needle, in Flex where we've plenty of organic growth to capture and we expect to add to the opportunity through acquisitions, all enabled by our strong balance sheet and by our powerful collaborative culture and our great team. We've restructured for an evolving customer need and market conditions, but still with the same guiding light of our clear purpose and our unifying values, supporting our communities and our people, evidenced by our exceptional engagement scores and with the bench strength of an experienced senior team. So to sum up then. GPE is in great shape and well set to navigate short-term headwinds. We're creating and grasping the opportunity you've heard about this morning, and so we remain confident in our outlook. Okay. So that's the formal bit. The presentation is on our website if you have Internet connection in here, but we've got full deck on the screen, we've got the team in front of us. I think there are mics doing the round. Stevie is going to take any questions we have that come in online. I don't know if we've got any so far. We have one, we have 2. Excellent. So we'll come to those in a moment. But are there any questions on the floor, first of all.

It's Rob Jones from BNP Paribas Exane. Just 2 from me. One, Nick, you mentioned the 8.8% total accounting return while booking cost of capital, what do you think your cost of capital is today? And how has that evolved over the last 12 months? Does that then influence your thought process around acquisitions going forward? And then secondly, a bit more detail just on New City Court. I noticed in the announcement that the most recent application had, I think, objected. I just wanted to understand what latest with that is, the pressure you're going through at the moment and the potential variable kind of outturns that could come as a result of that, both positive and negative?

Good questions, Rob, thank you. Nick, do you want to -- you got a microphone?

I mean we look at our cost of capital every quarter. We use CAPM. When we ran it at the balance sheet date is about 6.2%. I think it's not reductions then, given where underlyings have moved to. I have to say, over the course of my 11 years a GPE, we've always been thinking when we're thinking about what is our cost of capital, around 7%. That's typically the hurdle rate that we're looking at. And as we outlined, how that feeds into acquisitions, clearly, we're always looking for a beat to our cost of capital. You can see that the -- if you go to the acquisition slide, we showed both of them delivering an ungeared IRR in the 7s and crucially, a very high proportion of that return coming in the form of income.

Not just income, however, as you also said, the Flex acquisitions, those buildings that have got predominantly Flex in them were marked up by 8.7%. So good returns coming from what is perceived to be a riskier end of the market as some of you will know. But clearly, when you do it well and when your leasing duration is not that different to that than it would have been under a traditional lease on a smaller space, the returns are very attractive. So the second question, Rob, on -- Andy, would you like to just tell a little bit of a story about where we are in planning?

Yes. So Rob, we've submitted 2 planning applications at New City Court, one in 2018, one in 2021. The '21 application, we work with Southwark closely on its preparation, having regard to comments that they've made on the 2018 application. We launched -- having explored every opportunity with Southwark to have them determined, Southwark did not determine the applications, never took them to committee. So we were neither approved or refused. So we launched, with a lot of regret, appeals for non-determination at the end of last year. The planning inquiry starts in the middle of July. As you would expect, we wouldn't have done that unless we were confident in our case, and we look forward to putting that forward at the inquiry. Just to say, in terms of Southwark, more generally, we continue to work well with them. We've got the Minerva planning application is in at the moment, and that is progressing well. So as I said, we look forward to hearing the results of that inquiry, which we expect later this year.

Thanks, Andy, Nick. Thank you, Rob, good questions. Tim?

Tim Leckie from JPMorgan. Just following up perhaps on the planning first. The barriers to entry that you mentioned and just perhaps riffing off the comments from Andy there, the barriers, is it staff levels in the planning office, appetite from the planning officials to approve? Is it the carbon issue around new build? Can you give us some more details as of the nature of the barrier and how solvable it might be and from which end, the applicant or the actual committee? So that's the first one. And then going -- following on the development on the IRR, I guess, and development profit question and answer, those 15% to 20% numbers that you gave, is that one at today's rent levels and using [ valuation ] cost of debt or your own actual cost of debt?

Okay. So Andy, maybe you could address the second question, so the costs we assume in deriving our current expected margins. In relation to the barriers to entry point, Tim, I think we're really saying, as a general comment, the complexity of development is going up. The planning discussion is more involved. The planners, and by the way, quite rightly, are demanding for their local communities, the best they can get and added to that complexity has been recent local elections, one; and two, the sustainability debate around new build versus retrofit or refurbishment has clearly got more complex. And so for example, you're seeing us doing some really interesting things to address some of those challenges. So in this building here, the demolished City Place House, as was, we anticipate being able to reuse the steel from this building elsewhere in our portfolio, which massively reduces the carbon [ content consequences ] of new building in essence. So there are loads of ways in which increasingly complex barriers of changing the game and there are very few people, organizations in this market who can navigate the increasingly complex story. And we think as a result, the supply side is tightening quite aggressively, as you heard us. And in relation to what we're assuming when we're doing as forecast?

Yes, I think this is a potential construction cost, Tim, that you're talking about in terms of what we baked in there and allowance for inflation, et cetera. [indiscernible] offsetting the development.

No, I was talking from a positive side. I think rents can go up, as you say, then you've got potential to make some super profits out of these. I Just wanted to get...

Rent phasings are based on current day rents. From a construction perspective, we've given everything that's going on in the market at the moment, that 267 has got an appropriate allowance for inflation in it in terms of what we're seeing at the moment. Look at 50 Finsbury and what we did there, and we got a significant beat to ERV. So I think you're right, there could be further outperformance that comes from that.

And that outperformance will partly come from those barriers. So if you're a customer or a prospective customer, you're in a building, we're all like these guys. So these guys are moving from this building because it no longer satisfies their people's needs, right? So -- and if you're looking for a building that is couple of hundred thousand square feet into the next 3 to 4 to 5 years, which if we just go back to the market side, supply side constraints are real, so you need to buy it early. It's why we have what is actually a very large number proportionate to our rent roll in negotiation today. So bottom right, you can see -- actually, there's one in the back, which you know the one in the back with the -- our friends at CBRE, who provide us with the data of the entirety of the market. Thanks, Rich. So here you can see the CBRE squares at the right-hand end, they show the maximum potential deliveries if everything happened. Now we know it never does. We know that typically 1/3 to 1/2 of what is potentially buildable ever happens. We think at the minute, that's going down. We think risk appetite is going away. And we think that, therefore, there's every chance that what you're seeing here in those dotted boxes shrinks further. So if you're needing to prebuy, you need to go on with it.

Tim, just going back to your question on the profit on cost numbers we put up, looking for upside. I think you [ roughly have to just guess ] about what we assume on financing, we're achieving north of 5%. Our marginal cost of debt is 1.9%. And I think it's one of the things that arguably has become more valuable over the course of the last 6 months is this firepower that we have. You see in the broader debt markets even for investment-grade fundings in the mid-3s, we've got GBP 400 million of firepower at sub-2%. And so that's one of the things that we'll be taking advantage of to fund both acquisitions and delivery of our HQ developments.

Thanks, Tim. Yes. One on the front here and then next to Marc. Thank you.

Colm Lauder at Goodbody. I might move to questioning perhaps just on to the leasing side. So a record year of leasing [ 90,000 ] square feet. I'm interested to sort of get your views on sort of terms and incentives that have been achieved across that. It was interesting to see, particularly the 3.1-year average term achieved on the Flex space. How is that in terms of performance for the fitted versus the traditional space in terms of what sort of terms you're achieving? And then the second point, what's related is the tenant incentives across that space by structure. I'd imagine, obviously there's no rent freeze for the Flex, how that's been evolved and then your view on incentives and rent freeze for the coming year as well, Toby.

Okay. Colm, thank you, great questions. So what we're going to do is, Marc, you're going to talk to the HQ and just the overview of what you're seeing in the incentive space is. And then perhaps, Steven, you might just give a sense of what we've been experiencing in the Flex space. And Rich, in the back, we've got some net rent charts that show headline, not that one, the one that has the rent freeze on it because I think it's quite useful to see what's been happening to incentives according to the market. So Marc, should we start with you?

So I think in terms of where we got to with rents going back to this whole supply-demand equation, things are definitely getting tighter. And I think because of that, people are having to start looking earlier and having to be a bit more location-agnostic as well. The impacts on rents for that is that certainly for the West End, home rents are now at about GBP 120 per square foot and that is at a level last seen in 2016. And over the last 6 months, you've had about 31 deals over GBP 100 a square foot and 8 deals over GBP 150 a square foot. So there is [lot of the ] pressure on rents in the West End. In the city, you're seeing the same sort of situation occurring. Home rents are GBP [indiscernible] a square foot. Others will say, James Lane, for example, of GBP75 per square foot. And when you differentiate that from what is going on in the towers, 40/11 [indiscernible] and obviously, 22 Bishopsgate, they are touching levels close to GBP 100 a square foot. So again, supply and demand, tightness in supply, competitive tension, definitely moving into the market. In terms of incentives, rent freeze are coming in. And I think we quoted in November, something like 24 to 27 months for a 10-year term. That is now in the West End coming into 21 to 24 months. And in the city, they are still around 24 to 27 months. So if it is coming in, which means there's obviously a positive impact on the net effective rents as well. So all in all, it's kind of moving in the right direction from our point of view, maybe not from the occupants.

Good. Thank you, Marc. Steven, just whilst you're getting a microphone, the other point to make is around bifurcation between the best and the rest. So Marc here is really referring to prime spaces. And I think one of the other differentiators about this business today is we're generating a rarity, brand-new, absolute best-in-class space, which is attracting the sort of deal terms that Marc is talking about. The rest, we think, is increasingly bifurcated from the best, and that's a story that others are seeing as well and will help support our own prospective pipeline. Steven, in Flex, what are we seeing there?

So can you hear me?

Yes.

Okay. So we've obviously talked about the ready to fit, fitted, fully managed products that we deliver. Obviously, the fitted and fully managed are our Flex products. They're typically smaller end as you've heard from Toby and the average lease term is around 3.1 years. I think your question was really directed at sort of ready to fit versus fitted initially. We're not seeing much of a lease term difference between those 2. But what we are seeing is the ability to actually let it. As we've talked about, we're seeing there's a full position for the sort of sub-5,000 square foot suites, really becoming Flex. And if you're trying to let Cat A or ready to fit, as we now call it, it's a bit of a struggle.

So when we're leasing on a fitted or fully managed, what sort of incentives...

So yes, Coming on to this sort of fully managed, very little rent free at all. It could be 1, 2 months. In some cases, we've not given any rent free at all. Fitted, again, because people are moving in, they're not looking for that longer rent-free period to cover the fit-out works, so down to 2, 3, 4 months again, typically dependent on lease term lengths.

Good. Thank you, Colm. Marc?

Marc Mozzi from Bank of America. Just one question from my side. What makes you so confident that it's time to continue to push for new investments, while the market conditions are changing right now, higher cost of [ funding ], higher cost of construction, might be better to wait and to get a better entry point, don't you think?

Let's bring in Robin in a second. Maybe, Robin, you just might want to talk about the investment opportunities and how you're seeing that market evolving, given Marc's challenge on some of the view, obviously, of economic outlook. But more specifically in relation to some of the immediate challenges on investment into development, for example, don't forget that what we're putting into developments today will not deliver value for a number of years. The next schemes we build, specifically to Aldermanbury Square, we will potentially start in Q4 this year. That won't get delivered until '24, '25, '26 and beyond. And so what we're doing now is essentially making decisions about conditions 3, 4 years hence. 3, 4 years hence, as you heard from us, we think the inflation story will have been the transitory story of today. Let's hope it's long since gone. Let's hope that some of the other externalities have dissolved and we're into a more friendly, let's put it that way, environment and that the economy is growing strongly again. But as I've already said, we know that the supply side is tightening. So we're doing what we did last time, which is when others are getting worried about conditions, putting their cranes away, battening down the hatches, thinking about risk, with our strong balance sheet, as Nick talked about, and financial capacity, we're making decisions to position ourselves for growth through investments in development, in particular, and through growing our Flex business where we know that demand is real right now. In terms of buying things, Robin, what's your sense?

Yes. I think -- I mean it's a good observation. And we're, as a team, very well resourced and got strong conviction in our underwriting. So when we find a good opportunity, and we can price it appropriately from a risk-adjusted perspective, we're going to go for it, and we're going to pounce on it, and we're going to try and acquire it. And that's what we've seen with these 2 Flex opportunities, which we need to hit a lot of metrics. One was owned by a pension fund that had a risk appetite change and so we had an asset quite stranded and entity for a few years. So there was an upmarket opportunity for us to buy something from a more distressed owner, where we can step in and see through that risk. So we're quite opportunistic in our approach, but we still believe in all the fundamentals that we've been talking about even with the short-term headwinds that we can navigate through those and we can deliver a best-in-class product, whether for Flex or HQ. The HQ development is a bit tougher because they're finding overseas investors willing to pay a lot for residual land for land development, which is an area where we haven't been buying because we can't compete. So we are sensitive to every deal on merit.

Thanks, Robin. And essentially doing what we've always done, which is focusing on those areas where we have a competitive advantage, where we can do things that others can't. Okay. Stevie, should we take one from the [indiscernible].

Yes. The first one is from Paul May at Barclays. He says, your outlook for market conditions appear in aggregate to be weaker now than they were probably 6 months ago. Can you reconcile why the outlook for market conditions is less relevant now, given your rental forecasts are better in aggregate now than they were then? I think that's the 6% versus the decline.

Yes. Yes. Thanks, Paul. I mean I think it is clearly quite difficult to judge what's going to happen in the very near term. And we're fortunate in having a business which has to look to the medium and long term, given the cycle that real estate investments occurs over. I think what we've tried to synthesize here is those traffic lights, of which none is red, point number one. We had some red in the 6 months ago window. So none is read, the spread for offices is quite wide, 0% to 6%. So we are, by definition, giving ourselves some wiggle room, if you like, to allow for uncertainties over the next few months. But fundamentally, I think I'd be disappointed if we weren't at the top half of that range because if you look at the demand picture we're seeing at the minute, if you look at the inbound we're getting on Flex and you go back to what I said earlier about under offers, they are substantially higher today than they were even in March, and that's telling us something, we think. So Paul, I don't know whether that answers your question. You have no right to replies, but I hope it does. Any more in the room for the minute? Yes, James.

I'm James Carswell from Peel Hunt. Can you just give a bit of an update on the available units at Newman Street? And you obviously talked a bit about the retail demand, and do you think the Crossrail opening will help there? Do you think -- can you give us an update on what rents you're looking for versus maybe what they were a couple of years ago? And how quickly would you like to see those units lease up?

Well, we'd like to see them lease up yesterday. Marc, do you want to comment on that?

I agree, yesterday would be great. I think my observation on retail clearly is that there are definitely -- as we've already said, we're past the trough, but there are definitely weaker sentiment and short-term challenges are there. But there is a pickup in demand, certainly on the prime units. And what we're seeing is a lot of rightsizing and relocation with some overseas occupiers looking to take new space. But I think we need to just believe in the gravitational pull that London has, certainly in terms of retail and restaurant, bars, culture and Crossrail. And specifically for Newman Street, we are bang opposite Crossrail. And therefore, you have to believe that the output of footfall that will be generated from that is going to be quite significant. So if you're looking for a new destination, then this is going to be the place to be. The other thing I'd say is that, as quite as it has been over the last sort of 3 years, specifically on the east side of Oxford Street, quite a lot of development that has been going on, you've got the [ Autonet ] in Charing Cross Road, you've obviously got [indiscernible], you've got Center Point and you've got Ilona Rose House. So there's a lot of new restaurants, bars, theaters, music venues, all coming to the east side of Oxford Street. The West side, you've got quite a lot of repurposing and redevelopment going on. So I think that we will have our moment. And I think that, whilst we are having lots of conversations today, we don't have anything concrete, but we have got a lot of discussions on all of the units.

Yes, terrific, thank you. And don't underestimate that Crossrail story. I mean it's -- I'm not sure I know the recent numbers, but it wasn't long ago that they were forecasting 100 million -- more than 100 million people coming out of that station, 20 hours in front of our front door. Okay. Stevie, we've got one more, I believe?

Yes. I've got a question from Marie at Green Street, says, given the current uncertainty on your organic external growth ambitions, what is a sustainable leverage level?

Nick, that feels like it's for you.

Thank you. Marie, I mean we have consistently run over the last 10 years with 10 to 35 LTV. We've shown here rising up to north of 40. An awful lot can happen in 5 years, particularly, given we're not factoring in any development surpluses. And I think we've explained and we think that 15% profit and costs is still the right number, nor are we factoring in any prospective sales. We've never given a hard target or a number that we want to aspire to. I think being in the lower to mid-end of that range of the 10 to 35 at the moment where we are at 20 feels about the right place to be. I don't think we'd see ourselves pushing aggressively north of 30 as the market sits here today, given the broader externalities. But as you can see there through the build, we're not forecast to get there. And one of the other things that I highlighted was not only can we access further capital through recycling, but I think we are well versed in using the capital markets to raise capital at appropriate time and then return capital at appropriate time. At the moment I think we're set for that.

Good. I have one follow-up, one for Nick. Given we have a debt duration in '24, '25, looking at current markets, what would that be refinanced at today? And that's from Kieran Lee at Berenberg.

It depends what we refinance it with, but if we were putting in some new medium-term fixed cap on duration debt, it will probably be in the mid-3s. I mean the last financing that we put in place in the capital markets was in the summer of 2020, it was at 2.7%. And clearly, the market has moved on since then. I think this comes back to the point of why the value of our ESG-linked RCF has gone up relative over the course of the last 6 months. Equally, we've been doing work to ensure that we can tap as wide a wider pool of debt capital as we want, given the sustainable finance framework that we've put in place. And so whilst we haven't used the sterling bond market in the past, that is a market that is absolutely open to us if we wanted to go down that route alongside the PP market as well.

Great. Good answer. Thanks, Nick. We're done online? We're done online. I think it looks like we are done in the room as well. Let me just say thank you, everybody. Great to see you. These are clearly very exciting times. They are also times full of challenges, but this is also an amazing business, as I am sure you guys recognize, with an amazing team filled with skills and filled with real ambition. And I think what you've seen over the last 12 months is a repositioning of that ambition towards the great growth markets of our space and a love for London. And if you have all those ingredients, we think the outlook should be exciting, and I hope that came close to that. Thanks, everybody. Nice to see you.