Green Landscaping Group AB (publ) (GREEN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome to the Green Landscaping Group Q3 presentation for 2023. [Operator Instructions] Now I will hand the conference over to the CEO, Johan Nordstrom; and CFO, Carl-Fredrik Meijer. Please begin your meeting.

So good morning, and welcome to the presentation of our Q3 report covering January through September of 2023. And as mentioned, presenting today is myself, Johan Nordstrom; and our CFO, Carl-Fredrik Meijer. So let's dive into Page 2, please. And just a short recap on who we are, the Green Landscape Group, a home for entrepreneurs. We are a leading company in the landscaping services in Europe. We are also the leading consolidator, I would like to say, at this point of time, where we have activities in Sweden, Norway, Finland, Lithuania and, as of this year also, in Germany. The model which we are operating in is a decentralized model, meaning that we have local subsidiaries being close to the customers. They have a clear mandate on running their own business, and we have been doing this for a couple of years. And I believe that it's a quite advantageous model because you have agility, you have accountability, you're being close to the customers. So we are quite happy with the strategy we have chosen and believe it's a successful model for us. In terms of size of the company, we are now getting close to SEK 6 billion in revenue for the last rolling 12 months, and we're also having an EBITA of close to 9%. So we are a fast-growing company with a great, I would say, success historically and also with a decent profit margin. Looking into the number so next page please. We are pleased to report another strong performance in the third quarter with both sales and profit margins increasing and also surpassing our financial goals. So to sum it up for the Q3, we see that the sales increased by 22%. There was a slow organic growth in the quarter, that was 0%, but we are still at 5% year-to-date. And that really goes back to that the majority of the customers you have are linked to our annual budget. So if we had a good progress in the first and second quarter, then we had, I would say, somewhat slower progress in the third quarter, and then we're going to see where we'll land in the fourth quarter at the end of the year. Also, the acquisitions part contributed with 23% in the quarter. And again, that's a fairly high pace as a growing the company. EBITA, I think we had a very strong development as that one increased by 45% and amounted to SEK 128 million in the quarter. And that also means that we had an EBITA margin of 9%. Talk a little bit about the financial discipline. As we are a company who is growing quite quickly by acquiring other companies and at pace, we have chosen for the last few years happy to watch the balance sheet as well as growing at, I would say, a sustainable rate. And that means our financial gearing is at 2.5%, and that's very much in line with the financial goals we have communicated, and it's a good place to be. Also, given that the interest rates are going up, I think we are at a good point there. Also, our credit facilities was extended in this year, and that one is extended to 2026, so we don't have any upcoming issues in that area. And also, we would like to mention that we have focused on Germany for a long time or the DACH region, and that is Germany, Austria and Switzerland. And now we are up and running in that region. So we have an office in Munich. And we also have our first employee in the German market. And we also closed our second acquisition after the close of the quarter. So now we have an office and we have 2 companies in the DACH region. So it's -- that's to sum it up. So we're quite pleased with the performance. Next slide, please. And again, net sales grew by 22%. Organic was somewhat slower in the quarter at 0%. And then the acquired is, of course, that one is on the currency, there is a difference. And for the rolling 12 months, we can see that we are a fast-growing company, we were growing by 41%. Organically, we're growing by 7%. That is pretty much slightly above the expectations. But also, we have had a higher inflation, so that probably had a positive impact from that perspective on the organic growth side. And the organic is at 34%. So it's pretty much according to plan. Next slide, please. The order backlog is growing. It's growing by 14% as it should. A note to mention is that there's not a very strong link between the revenue in a particular quarter and also that backlog per se. We look and follow up and track the backlog on individual companies because that actually tells us more, given that do we have a maintenance company with 4, 5 years contracts, or do we have a landscaping company with a shorter order book? And at this point of time, we can see that, I would say, the absolute majority of our companies are having a healthy order book. So from that perspective, we are not that, I would say, concerned about the future, it looks pretty good. And the aggregated version, yes, it's a big order book that we have. But again, we are keeping track on it on a company-specific level and that tells us a little bit more information about it. But also that we have long contracts given the nature of our business, gives, I would say, a certain amount of security and stability given the challenges we can see in the marketplace. Next slide, please. Again, I'm quite happy with the EBITA. And for those of you who have followed us for a number of years, you know that we are focusing quite heavily on the profitability of the company. We can see that the EBITA is growing by 45%. However, the existing business had a negative 10% in the quarter, while acquired companies contributed with 58%. So it, was from that perspective, I won't say, a challenging quarter, but it could have -- it was a slow quarter in the inorganic side while we were quite successful with the acquired companies. On the right-hand side, we can basically see for the rolling 12 months. And that's a slide I'm really proud of that we are consistently, over the years, improving the profitability of both, I would say, the companies that we have had in the group for quite some time, and also that we are adding that with very profitable and successful companies who comes in to the group. And by that, we are consistently driving up the EBITA margin, and we are right now at 8.9% for the rolling 12 months, and I'm quite happy with that development. Next slide, please. Sweden. And this is a segment where we saw, I would say, a somewhat soft or slow market in the third quarter. The beginning of the third quarter was slow. And then by -- I would say, by mid or the end of the quarter, we saw that the market actually picked up again. So that was a phenomenon that we saw in Sweden. The net sales in Sweden were a negative 5%. But we are at 6% year-to-date, so it's hard to tell what's going on there. But we had, I would say, a good progress in the first and second quarter, a somewhat slower development in the third quarter and then we do -- yes, that's where we are. And then in terms of profitability, it's a big number there with 28% down. But in real money, so to say, the margin that we delivered was 3.4% in the quarter versus 4.6% a year ago. So I would say a somewhat slow quarter from that perspective, both revenue-wise and profit-wise. Next slide. So moving into Norway. Here, we can see that net sales, there we achieved SEK 598 million, and that's a growth of 25% in the quarter and it's a 50% growth in year-to-date. So it's still, I would say, a very nice development we have in Norway, where we are growing organically and we're also growing by acquisitions. So nice performance in terms of profit margin, we see that, that one is becoming more and more normalized given that we started out with companies with a very high profit margin. And then we have added bigger players with a more, let's say, normal profit margin, but they are still above the goal we have for the company of 8%. So in the quarter, we were at 9.5% EBITA. So Norway is moving on nicely, I would say. And then we have the new segment that is Finland and Rest of Europe. And as can be seen, we have been growing quite quickly and dramatically. So net sales are increasing like 283%. It's a new market, as I have mentioned for the last 2, 3 quarters for us, that we are building up, Finland and as well as Germany and Lithuania. So growing by 283%, organic is close to 30%, while acquisitions were 244%. So it's a new market, but it's growing quite nicely. And we have a fantastic EBITA margin in that particular region, where we are right now at 25%. And of course, there will be a normalization going on there as the companies have been with the group for a 12-month period and so forth. So it's where -- this is a market we are focusing on right now and building up that market. And I would say we have been very successful in doing so and are happy with the companies that we have and the performance of those entities. And to sum it up on my part here, we made 1 acquisition, and that is Matthias Rainer in Germany, it's a southern part of Germany, that we acquired in October of 2023. And we do welcome Matthias to -- and his employees to the group, and that's pretty much where we are. So then by that, I hand it over to Carl-Fredrik.

Thank you. Let's talk about the financials of the quarter. Johan mentioned we had a significant increase in net sales and EBITA, and also the margin increased by 1.4%. However, the earnings per share is slightly down from last quarter, which, of course, is due to the higher interests we paid these days. From a cash flow perspective, it's our weakest quarter. I'll come back to that. I'm happy with the financial leverage, in line with target. I'm usually seeing that if we are between 2 and 3, I think that's the right level to operate in, given the nature and the stability of the business we're in. Also, we announced this morning a share purchase -- repurchase program of SEK 30 million to avoid future dilution or decrease future dilution when we acquire new companies. Cash flow. So those of you who have followed us know that Q3 is a weaker quarter. We saw that we do bill a lot at the end of the month. And this year, 30th of September was a Saturday. So we received huge payments on Monday and Tuesday in Q4. So that is one explanation for the softer cash flow from operations. However, year-to-date, the cash flow from operations is up by roughly 40% to SEK 299 million, which is in line with the EBITA increase as well despite the higher interest this year. And also maybe that goes without saying, but we do ramp up business to sort of full speed with lots of add-on sales and projects during Q3, during the fall. So that's why some more working capital is generally needed during this period. The cash flow bridge simply shows in graphic what happens here. And here, we have the minus SEK 138 million in increase in working capital, mainly in the increased receivables as I mentioned. We had SEK 25 million in CapEx and other investing activities. We took new -- 0 new loans, and we made amortization and debt repayments of SEK 73 million this quarter, ending up in a minus SEK 99 million cash flow for the period to a cash position of SEK 548 million end of September. Financial leverage. We talked about that. We've been operating at around 2.5 for a long time now. We are -- we had a peak last year in Q3 at 2.7%, which is both due to acquisitions and to the seasonal pattern of the cash flow. And we have a similar pattern this year, where Q3 increases somewhat Q2, the higher cash flow -- or higher working capital need during this period. So this is in line with our target. We think it's a prudent and stable level to be at, 2.5 EBITDA. Loan maturity profile. We have, during this quarter, extended -- or after the close of the quarter, we have extended the loan facility to end -- instead of end of 2025 to end of 2026. We have today outstanding maturities of approximately SEK 2 billion. Yes, there are no maturities until 2026 then. We have only -- it's a bank, 3 banks where we have this loan, and we have 1 covenant being net debt to EBITDA pro forma, which -- and that 2.5 level, it leaves us plenty of headroom to that covenant. So I think that's -- we're happy with that. Looking at the financial targets. We have been growing, as Johan mentioned, by 41% in the last 12 months compared to the 12 months before that. So significantly outpacing our target. The margin is -- I think it was in the fourth quarter, we exceeded our goal of 8%. We're now an 8.9% with a positive trend, where the leverage is exactly at 2.5. And we have not made any dividend, we have instead invested all the money in growth. And by that, I hand it back over to Johan to sum it up.

Okay. Thank you. As mentioned, we are quite pleased to report another strong performance in the third quarter, where, again, sales and profit margins are increasing and surpassing our financial goals. And there we see that we have a growth of 22% and EBITA margin in the quarter of 9%. And given the market conditions, we are quite pleased with the performance of the company. So by that, I think that concludes the presentation here, and then we open up for Q&A. Thank you.

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Karl Bokvist from ABG Sundal Collier.

My first one is on the Finland and Rest of EU segment, another quarter with this very high kind of 20%-plus margins. Just curious how we should think of this going forward? Is it in terms of seasonality something to keep in mind for this fourth quarter? And how should we think about this perhaps if we -- lack of better words, normalization and profitability in future years?

Yes. I would actually look upon it the way we did in Norway because we can see, I would say, a similar trend, that we're starting out with great companies. And then there's a fluctuation because you have seasonalities in the company, so given when we actually take them into the books and they are in their peak season, so to say, and then they have to be with the company for a full 12 months before you can see the true performance of the companies. But the -- and then as you follow up with other acquisitions, with companies that might have lower profitability margins than the ones that we started out with. It doesn't mean that we've acquired companies that are not good. It's just that we typically begin very strong companies, and that's why you can see this development. And there is a seasonality pattern in these numbers as well, because some of the companies we have in the group actually had a peak season in the third quarter that contributed to that particular margin. So I would look upon the trend and the normalization. You can see that we have in Norway, but that will normalize over the coming years, I would say.

Understood. And then can you shed some more light on the -- you do mention the improvement in legacy companies. Are we mainly talking about Sweden here? And is it related to a broader group of legacy businesses or some business in particular that has previously been loss-making that is now kind of to a group level?

Yes. Thank you for the question, because that one is a bit hard to explain. We had discussions about how we're going to convey the message here. As we have previously referred to like the [ LG-18 ] companies, those are the company that goes back to what we had in 2018. And we are tracking the performance of companies, and I'm very happy with the development of those companies. So they have gone from a difficult situation to actually surpassing the industry in terms of profitability. So that's a very strong track record on those companies. And I think it's a testament to our ability to improve the profitability in companies that are struggling. Then if you look upon the performance in the third quarter, we had a setback. We had a somewhat soft market. It wasn't terrible, but it was a late start on a couple of projects that did have a negative impact. And then we basically had 2 entities that which we have mentioned previously that are not performing, and we are in the process of correcting that one. And it would take like another 6 months before we can see, I would say, a substantial improvement in that area. And the improvement of the [ LG-18 ] companies is not strong enough to cover up for the shortfalls that we saw in the third quarter of those 2 specific entities which we are talking about. So I won't say it's a structural problem. It's 2 companies that are not performing, and we are focusing on improving the operations of those 2 companies in the Swedish market.

Understood. And on that topic with Sweden, you did highlight challenges also in Q2, and then you did take a one-off impairment as well as provisions. So what is the effect that we still see in the third quarter? Are these additional effects? Or is it still the same business, and the prior provisions did not fully cover the kind of challenges that you foresaw 3 months ago?

That's a good question. We made the provisions, that's correct, and we put that on the balance sheet but we have not released those provisions, so to say. So that is just a safe feature if something should go bad in the future. So that means that no, we did a one-off in the second quarter, if I'm correct, yes, I'm looking on Carl-Fredrik here.

Yes. Yes.

And this is just a run rate we have, as I did explain that one. By the end of Q3 next year, those contracts will expire. So by then that problem will basically disappear. So for all practical purposes, we have another, I would say, 6 to 8 months to go, then the majority of those contracts will no longer be in effect. So by that, that problem will disappear.

All right. Then just to understand there. So the units in Q2, was it mainly 1 unit in Q2 and now it's 2 units, just to understand the kind of extent of the year end...

Yes, we did -- that's correct. We did highlight 1 entity or unit in the portfolio. That's correct. And then now we see that we have a somewhat weaker performance in another unit. But the magnitude goes back to the aforementioned #1 unit.

Understood. My final one is a broader one. You mentioned certain kind of a bit later project starts and a bit tougher competition in the market. But do you see also that as a result of tougher competition, it also means that pricing becomes tougher?

On occasion. Now -- first of all, now we are talking about the project-based business. It's a landscaping segment. It's not the maintenance side of the business. We need to separate that one. And we are also looking upon, I would say, 2 markets where we see that, let's say that, the competition have been increased. That's in Sweden. And it's in Norway where we hear the signals that, okay, we can see that there are companies moving into the landscaping sent that previously were occupied or at had their business elsewhere. But we also have to keep in mind that we have had a strategy for a very long time that we should be #1 on the money. That means that we own the customer, we are not a subcontractor to construction companies or that type of thing. And most of those companies do have a different cost structure because they are typically doing bigger projects or more technically advanced projects to other customers than what we have. And that's what I'm saying is basically, they are not that competitive. So even though there are more competitors bidding for a contract, it doesn't necessarily means that there's an increased price competition because they have a higher cost structure than we do, meaning that they are not able to compete that successfully in the market. But of course, there could be a one-off contract, where they just need to fill their order book and they're basically buying a market share or they are making a mistake in the calculation. But I would say that we see that the number of competitors have increased. In some cases, not the majority of the cases, we can see that there is increased price competition.

The next question comes from Henrik Jernbeck from SEB.

I have a question regarding the region Finland and Rest of Europe and you did not mention the plant nursery this quarter, Taimisto Huutokoski. But I remember from Q2 that it was a very strong seasonal effect. Is this also a driving force behind the strong margin in Finland and Europe this quarter? Or was it this quarter?

No, it isn't. Taimisto is actually selling most in Q2 and Q4. So this is more due to outstanding performance of our company in Lithuania, who continues to do very good, and also a very strong start from Schmitt & Scalzo in Germany.

Okay. [indiscernible] that is also an especially strong seasonal effect Schmitt & Scalzo, for example, in Q3?

I mean, first of all, we just have to see. I mean we just acquired them. We have to see how the pattern is, and how the market is and how they're doing, but they're off to a very good start. I would assume, yes, that, to my understanding, Q3 is a strong delivery quarter for Schmitt & Scalzo.

It is.

And on [indiscernible] Finland, you mentioned here that you had some contract deliveries in the quarter. Was this in Finland? Or is this related to the German business or Lithuania?

Sorry, but can you repeat the question?

I think you mentioned about strong contract deliveries in Q3 in Finland. Was this the Finnish company only? Or was this for the whole...?

Mainly -- no. So mainly, this is the Lithuania and German company rather than the Finnish companies.

Okay. And when you mentioned -- if we go over to Region Sweden here. I think maybe we have talked about this a little bit, but the company-specific events, those were the ones you explained earlier about 2 companies that you see some poor performance in, what this correct or was there anything other specific events going on in Sweden?

Not really. As I did mention, we saw in the quarter that the market was somewhat slower, meaning that the project start was delayed for x amount of weeks. So the beginning of the quarter was weak for some, 1 or 2, of our landscaping entities where they should have started the projects and were delayed. But towards the end of the quarter, those projects were initiated. But however, it means we lost x amount of weeks in that particular quarter, and now they are up and running. So I'm not -- I can't make it too big -- I can't extrapolate what's going on there in the fourth quarter and we are saying that we saw a delay in the project starts impacting negatively 1 or 2 of our landscaping companies in the quarter. Then we are back to, okay, what happens with one of the entities where we are struggling, and there we have another 6, 7, 8 months to go on that particular contract. And then that one will cease to be serviced by us. And by that, the problem would largely then be resolved. And then we saw some other -- I would say, from one other companies a minor but substantial. So they are, I would say, the other 2 reasons that impacted the quarter in Sweden.

And here, we have discussed this a lot about a quarter and year-to-date. And I mean if we look at the longer trend, a quarter is just a quarter, that's not how we run our business. And some quarters some of the segments will do worse and some they will be better, yes.

Worse. There could be fluctuations between the quarters that impact the quarter negatively.

Okay. On the public side of your business, that you have long-term contracts with the public sector, have you seen anything in terms of volumes there, maybe a decrease in volumes due to a [indiscernible] economy for the buyers here?

Not really, no. But what I expect is going to happen is that as they have had inflation and that means that you have higher wages and other cost increases, and if you have a fixed budget, if the budget doesn't become bigger, then somewhere down the line that will have a negative impact on the volume in terms of the work you can do. Because if the work is getting more expensive and you don't have a bigger budget, then there's less work that you can do.

So we haven't seen any slowdown...?

Sorry, we hear you very poorly.

Yes, yes, so you haven't seen any slowdown in the public sector then in this quarter or the start of Q4?

As I did mention, we saw a slowdown in the third quarter because even though it's a landscaping segment, that is still down into the public sector. So we did see some hesitation. We didn't see that there was a budget change. It was more that on the public -- or on the procurement side or in the public sector in some specific cases, we have to keep that in mind. There, we saw that they were hesitant to start the projects for various reasons because they -- probably they were uncertain about, well, how much money do we have, how will we end the year and so forth. So they basically did an evaluation on where do they stand, what's going happen and then they initiated the projects. So they were hesitant. It was not -- I haven't heard of any public contracts which we have had that actually have been decreased, meaning that they have a smaller budget this year. That's not really how they work. They do have a fixed and approved budget, and then they spend the money. And we haven't seen any signs of a budget being decreased in size.

Okay. And I also have a question on Norway here because in Norway, the performance seems to be very stable in the quarter, and the mixed companies here leans towards the project-based side of your business. And you say that you have an increased competition in Sweden, why do you think Region Norway can be so stable while you feel a little bit of a pressure in Sweden?

There are basically 2 reasons. The number one reason is, I hate to say it, but I would say that the companies we have in Norway are actually, to some extent, of a higher quality than we have in Sweden. They are led by very skilled entrepreneurs who have been doing this for a long time. They have a very strong relationship with the customers. So of course, they have a different starting point than the companies we have in Sweden that -- okay, not all of them, but quite a few other companies in Sweden, originates from what we refer to as [indiscernible] with which we integrated and incorporated. And yes, it's a long story about those companies. And the companies in Sweden are improving, but they do have a different starting point compared to the companies we have in Norway. Also, I would say that the competitive landscape in Norway differs quite significantly from the competitive landscape I see in Sweden, meaning that you do have higher barriers of entry in the Norwegian market on the public side than you have in Sweden. So the requirements if you want to participate in a public tender in Norway are higher and, in some cases, significantly higher than what we see in -- or have seen, I would say, in Sweden. I do see signs that it's actually improving in Sweden as well.

I also think the economic climate in Norway is generally stronger than in Sweden.

Yes, it is. It is.

Yes.

The next question comes from Alexander Siljeström from Pareto Securities.

Just a quick follow-up here on the competitive landscape. Could you expand a bit on the barriers to entry in Germany, and if they are even higher than in Norway?

Very good question. Even higher than Norway, no, I don't think that but they are constructed in a different way. So I would say that they are definitely higher than in Sweden, meaning that if you want to be competitive or in order to be allowed to quote on a public business in Germany, you have to be approved by the region. And in order to be approved by region or the city, you have also be -- you have to be approved by, what's the name in English here? From the...

[indiscernible].

No, no, no, from the [indiscernible], the GaLa, the landscaping association. So it's kind of Catch-22, you have to be approved by the GaLa organization...

And the trade, yes.

And the trade organization in order to be approved by the government. And so there are 2 levels of approval that you have to fulfill. And they do have requirements on the education, on the quality and that type of thing. So it's a more regulated market in Sweden and so than I see in Sweden, and that actually makes the barrier higher, the barriers of entry higher in the German market compared to Sweden. Versus Norway, it's hard to say. But it's a -- I would say that the German market is a well-functioning market. It's a quite local market because you need to be approved by the local government as well as the city, as well as a trade union, and you can't move around from that perspective. And there's also another barrier that's been created, that you have to be approved by the local city in order to be able to quote to the work. Again, in Sweden, that's not really the case.

Okay, that's very helpful.

Okay, thank you.

And then another question just on -- you said that Q3 in Sweden started a bit slow and then picked up, and then I guess it's landscaping. Could you expand a bit on how Q4 has started? Is it stronger than the start of Q3?

I haven't seen any slowdown, if that answers your question. So we did see a soft beginning of the third quarter because everybody was kind of let's wait and -- not everybody, but we did see that the tendency in the market in the third quarter was, okay, let's wait and see what's going on, should we start this project and so forth. And once it started, now my -- let's say, the data I have basically says, yes, we are up and running as expected at the beginning of the fourth quarter.

Okay. Great. And if I remember correctly, you often have add-on sales landscaping in Q4 that's driving a strong Q4? Then it is -- what's your view on the potential for add-on sales now in this climate?

We do expect a similar, let's say -- there have been other changes here for -- again, for those of you who have followed us for some time know that when you look upon the, what's it called, the rate of completion and so forth, that we changed that one 2 years ago to a more, I would say, rigid and more safe way of doing the accounting. It actually means that, that fourth quarter should be a strong quarter for us, and we do expect that to continue.

Okay. That's very helpful. And just my last question then, if you could just say something about your view on demand for 2024. What you see? And do you see any differences per region for the next year?

That's a tough one. I would say that if I look upon the business in Sweden, I think we are having a consensus that 2024 will not be a fantastic year, if I put it that way. So I think we have a conservative view on the development on the market in Sweden for 2024. How that will impact the business, given, I would say, the defensive qualities we have inherent in the business we are having. So I don't expect the business in Sweden to boom on the -- we're talking about the industrial or consumer, whatever you want. I think that we will see that it would be a somewhat challenging 2024. And that, of course, we are being impacted, but to, I would say, not a very large extent, I basically expect business as usual in Sweden when I look upon our performance. But I think it will be a tough year for many companies in Sweden, 2024.

Perfect. And Norway and Finland and other Europe, you expect a stronger development than in Sweden for '24?

In my particular segment, we talk about the maintenance and landscaping business, the answer is basically, yes.

There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

Okay. I think that was very good questions. I do appreciate the questions here. And as I did mention in the start of the conference here that we are quite pleased with the performance of the company. We are a fast-growing company, and now we have a foothold in Germany. We made 2 acquisitions in Germany. We have the office and so forth in place. So I'm quite happy with the development. And by that, I think we end the conference. Thank you very much for listening in.