Grenke AG (0R97.IL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

May 15, 2024

London Stock Exchange GB Financials Financial Services earnings 46 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. We will now start with the Grenke AG conference call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Anke Linnartz.

Anke Linnartz

executive
#2

Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining our video conference call regarding our Q1 results that we published early this morning. My name is Anke Linnartz. I'm Head of IR, and I'm pleased to be here today with our CEO, Dr. Sebastian Hirsch; and our designated CFO, Dr. Martin Paal. We will start with the presentations, as always, and the Q&A session will start right after the presentations. [Operator Instructions] With that, I would like to pass the call on to Sebastian. Please go ahead.

Sebastian Hirsch

executive
#3

Thank you, Anke, and a warm welcome, ladies and gentlemen, also from my side. Thank you for joining our call today. It's my pleasure to provide you with an overview of some KPIs for the first quarter of 2024, our business environment and also provide you with our update on our ESG ambitions. Martin will later guide you through the development of our numbers. So let's dive right in. For the year 2024, we set ourselves ambitious targets with a new business volume between EUR 3 billion and EUR 3.2 billion and group earnings between EUR 95 million and EUR 150 million. And let me tell you, we have started the year well. Before we have a look on our KPI performance, allow me some comments on the macroeconomic environment and how we at Grenke responded to it in the first quarter 2024. In our review of the macroeconomic environment, we observed encouraging signs, particularly in the Eurozone, so in our core markets. Notably, inflationary pressure are showing first signs of decline. This easing of inflation aligns with the period of moderate economic development, reflecting a steady yet cautious growth trajectory. And this, ladies and gentlemen, is also important for our business since small- and medium-sized companies are more eager to invest. Furthermore, key interest rates have remained unchanged, quite stable, providing a stable financial basis that supports our strategic planning and investment decisions. With a more positive business sentiment also comes an unbroken need for small, medium enterprises in Europe and worldwide for investments, be it for replacing or expansion, especially the transformation into more digitalization and more green business models that are drivers for our business that are drivers to invest. And one of these investments I mentioned, one of these investment needs stems from the green transition, which represents a significant potential for us. To achieve net zero emission, substantially investments are forecasted for Europe totally EUR 1.5 billion per year. And this emphasizes the important role we play in facilitating smooth investments. That is why we are essential not only in promoting, but also in implementing sustainable business models. And this is not a task that will be completed in the short term. We remain relevant, ladies and gentlemen. First indicators for investments like ifo Climate or in Germany, the leasing index of BDL are showing a macro relaxion. And improving macroeconomic stability sets an ideal framework as we navigate the evolving market landscape and seek to capitalize on emerging opportunities such as the green transition we mentioned. Now let's look on what happened internally in Q1 2024. Let's look to the status quo. We have decided to shift our focus on our core leasing business for small, medium enterprises. So we decided moving away from our less synergistic factoring segment. You are aware of that. It was in the beginning of 2024. We are in a good progress here. I'm convinced of the intrinsic value of the factoring market overall, but our priority is to enhance our leasing services and digital capabilities supported by a stable refinancing with our GRENKE Bank as one of our 3 funding pillars. Martin will later show you more about that. We have successfully launched our share buyback program in Q1. In doing so, we plan to acquire up to 2.3 million shares, which equates about 5% of our existing share capital for a total volume up to EUR 70 million. And this decision rooted in our strong financial position and favorable market conditions represents a compelling investment opportunity for our company and our valued shareholders. This strategic move underscores our commitment to enhancing shareholder value and our confidence in the future development of Grenke AG. We have not yet decided what we will do with the shares once the share buyback program has finished. Currently, we bought back a bit more than 2.3 million shares, which corresponds with roughly 20% of the EUR 70 million in total. And as we focus on the one hand, on leasing, we focus also our efforts on digitalization and growth within our core business, leasing, so the leasing operations. And I'm pleased to report that the portion of green economy objects in our leasing new business has risen to 6% in Q1. And this growth is majorly driven by e-bikes, solar panels and wallboxes. So key components in our commitment to support small, medium enterprises for the green transition to support them with small ticket investments, small ticket green investments. And to further promote these environmentally friendly products, we have launched campaigns such as a Green Week aimed at raising awareness and accelerating the adoption of sustainable solutions for our partners and customers. And this not only aligned with our strategic priorities, but also taps into the substantial investment needs for green initiatives across Europe. Looking to our development and leasing new business, CM2 and also a key indicator, the interest rates, ladies and gentlemen, I'm delighted to share that Q1 2024, we have not only continued on our strong trajectory on growth, but also significantly enhanced our profitability. Our leasing new business saw an increase of nearly 10%, so almost double-digit growth again, reaching roughly EUR 670 million. More importantly, our contribution margin too. The key indicator of our profitability in new business and the profitability in our P&L of tomorrow, and with a CM2 margin of 16.8%, it was a very good improvement compared to the previous quarter. And with EUR 112.7 million, it was a growth by 10.4% in volume of CM2. And again, back to the volume growth, you can see that in the chart here, in the bars, with an average growth rate of 16% annually in volume. This success is evidence for our strategic focus and ability to adapt the current interest rate environment, efficiently managing refinancing costs and passing them on to our leasing contracts while growing double digit. And now allow me to show you some key performance indicators. Martin will later go in more detail on describing the development of some numbers. We are well on track. The development of all KPIs are according to our plan with. Group earnings coming in at EUR 19.8 million for the first quarter, a loss rate of 1.1%, quite stable and, therefore, we're well below our target of 1.5%. A continuous stable equity ratio of 18.8%. It includes a share buyback, and it's also well above our target level of at least 16%. Our cost income ratio developing towards our target of below 58% for that year, even if being above a year-on-year comparison to Q1 last year, but it improves in comparison to the full fiscal year 2023. And I will now hand over to Martin to guide us through some numbers in more detail.

Martin Paal

executive
#4

Yes. Thank you, Sebastian, and good morning from my side as well. I would like to start our financials with a quick look at our new leasing portfolio of the first quarter of 2024. For our business success, 2 factors are crucial. First, a strong CM2 margin; and second, a robust absolute leasing business volume. As Sebastian already explained at the Annual General Shareholders' Meeting 2 weeks ago, small tickets from today's perspective are leasing contracts for an investment volume of up to EUR 50,000. When we occupied this niche a few decades ago, we were assuming a limit of EUR 25,000; however, the demand for financing up to EUR 50,000 has also increased in recent years due to new technologies such as medical equipment, robotics and so on, which require higher investments. And in this past quarter, about 97% of all our new leasing contracts fell into this category, accounting for roughly 73% or EUR 487 million of our new leasing volume. At a CM2 margin of 17.6%, which is well above our target of 17%, small tickets contributed about 76% of our CM2 in the first quarter. And with their steadily high margin, small tickets are the key driver of our profitability. Their strong performance is supported in contrast by the robust volume of bigger tickets above EUR 50,000. In this segment, we were able to make a significant margin improvement to 14.8%, coming from 14.4% in the first quarter of last year. And this resulted in a strong increase of their contribution to our CM2 from EUR 22 million to EUR 27 million in this quarter. And with an overall margin, as Sebastian already explained, of 16.8%, new leasing volume of EUR 670 million, we saw a good start into this new financial year. So let's move on to the operating performance for the first quarter. We started this year with strong earnings growth. Group earnings rose by some 25% or roughly EUR 4 million compared to the previous first quarter. Key drivers for our profitability where our net interest income increased steadily to EUR 86.1 million as well as our profits from new service business, including disposals, which saw a strong increase to EUR 46.8 million. The increase in costs was more than compensated by this development. And here, I would also like to highlight that in the first quarter, our increase in interest income again outperformed the increase in interest expenses by about EUR 2 million, and this is a positive trend that will further drive our profitability in the upcoming quarters. Traditionally, our business accelerates throughout the year. So consequently, with a net result of roughly EUR 20 million for the first quarter, we are fully on track and convinced of our new leasing business and profit targets for 2024. Let us now take a closer look at our cost side. Here, we saw staff costs increasing by some EUR 5.5 million. The other cost components like depreciation, IT project costs or other administrative expenses more or less remained stable compared to the previous quarter of the last year. The increase of staff cost was mainly driven by high inflation levels in 2023 and overall higher headcount. But the good news is, this development is according to plan and puts us well on track for the remaining year. Moving to the income side. We saw a steady growth in our net interest income, as I mentioned, profit from the service business and also gains from disposals amounting to roughly EUR 7 million compared to the first quarter of last year. And in sum, this means a cost income ratio of 58.1%. And as you are aware, our guidance for this year sees some cost income ratio below 58% after 59.2% in 2023. And consequently, the current cost development, together with increasing income brings us right in the direction to reach our target. Let's have a quick look at our cash flow statement. Here, we see a cash level that remained more or less stable at EUR 700 million compared to the end of the last year. Strong cash inflows from payments by our lessees of EUR 626 million supported our continuous growth into investments of new leasing business of EUR 686 million. And last but not least, also in 2024, we will rely on our proven funding mix diversification along our 3 debt funding pillars. By the end of the first quarter, our funding mix remained widely stable compared to the end of 2023. Senior unsecured made up 40% or EUR 2.7 billion. Deposit business of GRENKE Bank accounted for 25% or EUR 1.7 billion, and our ABCP programs for 16% or EUR 1.1 billion. Our 3 funding pillar mix has proven very successful in providing us with diversified and affordable funding to finance the ambitious growth path of our leasing business. And consequently, we will continue on this path. And with that, I would like to hand back over to Sebastian.

Sebastian Hirsch

executive
#5

Thank you, Martin. And ladies and gentlemen, you know this slide maybe already from our full year's results presentation that year, the parameters have not changed in the first quarter. We continue to drive efficiency that's very important in our business model and for our success, also through our digitalization program where we already made substantial progress as planned. We will work on our product offering for our customers and partners, also customers from the direct sales channel and overall, with the clear focus we have now on our leasing segment. We continue to stay true to who we are, a leading provider in small ticket leasing, always with ambition to make leasing as convenient and easy as online shopping for small, medium enterprise customers. Again, we remain relevant to bring these investments on the road. And as I said before, we have started well into the year 2024. And with aforementioned measures and continuous efforts of all the Grenke employees of our team Grenke, we are confident about our guidance and outlook. With this said, I will give back to Anke, and I'm looking forward to your questions, ladies and gentlemen.

Anke Linnartz

executive
#6

Yes. Thank you, Sebastian, Martin, for your presentation. At this time, we will start our Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] We have already questions lined up, and the first one is from Johannes Thormann with HSBC, please.

Johannes Thormann

analyst
#7

Johannes Thormann, HSBC. Three questions from my side. First of all, on your new business. Can you comment on April trends, please? And how this has performed despite the Easter holidays in comparison to the last year? As you're expecting at least 16% full year growth and Q1 just saw 9% growth, and what recovery pattern should we expect for the next months to get to the 16% growth? Secondly, how realistic is still your 150 bps risk cost guidance for the full year? Should we expect same level of risk cost on absolute amounts in the next quarters? Or should this go down? And then last but not least, simple one, could you please provide some clarity on the tax rate for this year as Q1 was pretty low and below your normal guidance?

Sebastian Hirsch

executive
#8

Yes. Thank you, Mr. Thormann. So we will take the question. I think new business, it's a bit of specific year in terms of Easter, in terms of bank holidays, especially the second quarter is a bit specific. So we can say that we are on track and on plan in the second quarter. But again, because of the holidays and the bank holidays, June is very important that year because it's June without any bank holiday in Germany and in some other countries and in April and also in May, there were a lot of bank holidays, and it's quite normal that the new business is a bit more volatile in our business as well as in others, but we are on track and on plan with our volume development. And of course, to achieving the guidance and ambitious goal, we have an acceleration during the year as necessary. That was clear from the very beginning on, starting that year after a very strong fourth quarter last year, starting that year in plan, but we will need an acceleration over the next months and quarters to achieving our guidance. It's ambitious, but realistic, and we are willing to do so. The risk cost target is 1.5% midterm orientation. The guidance is maximum 1.5%, could also be less than 1.5%. The first quarter was pretty stable. It depends a bit on the payment behavior performance in the existing portfolio. You know that it looks okay at the moment and quite good. And it depends also on the new business development because the new business volume brings us expected loss -- new expected losses in the accounting and also the macroeconomic environment is a huge driver, especially for the expected loss level we have to put in our P&L and on the balance sheet for the end of the year. And so the target is realistic from today's perspective from per end of March and the accounting perspective, May, 1.25% is more realistic than 1.5% per -- but we have to see how the volume in new business on the one hand, the expected loss level from the current model on that volume then bring us in and maybe changes in macroeconomic environment we have to put in our models. And tax rate, yes, the tax rate is a bit low in Q1, but it's a normal volatile scenario. As I mentioned before, in the last calls, you can assume from a model perspective, more or less a stable tax rate like it was in the last year. So it should be a bit higher over the whole fiscal year, but it's quite normal that in one quarter, there could be a bit volatility depending a bit on the countries, on the performance in several countries and the differences on tax rate.

Anke Linnartz

executive
#9

Thank you. So then we move on to Marius Fuhrberg from Warburg Research, please.

Marius Fuhrberg

analyst
#10

Yes, 3 questions from my side as well. First one is on your funding mix and especially on your senior unsecured side. What are the latest signals that you received from the debt market? Is there a demand for new bonds with also maybe lower coupons? Or is the situation rather, yes, stable compared to the last one? Second question is on your IT project costs. You showed that you had some EUR 3.8 million in Q1, should we expect this level -- this to remain on this level? Or are there any increasing, decreasing trends? And the last one is on your gains from disposals, which were rather high and positive in Q1. Were there any special developments that affected this line? Or is it just normal fluctuation?

Martin Paal

executive
#11

Yes. Thank you very much, Mr. Fuhrberg. I will start with your first question regarding the funding mix. Yes, senior unsecured is a very important pillar, as I just explained, roughly 40% accounting for senior unsecured instruments as per end of first quarter. What we see currently in the capital markets is very constructive. So we see a lot of demand and supply, there's pretty active capital markets, and we have EUR 3 billion or more new business volume to fund this year. And this means that we have to go back to the capital markets and go out with some bond issues during the year. We are currently planning it together with our banks, and we are pretty comfortable and confident that we will get the funding that we need for this year. So we really see constructive capital markets currently. And ECB decisions will be in the first week of June, and -- but I think there's already some interest rate decreases priced in it. But yes, we will see how this works out for us, but we are, as I said, confident that we will make good bonds in the course of this year. Second topic, IT project costs. Yes, they will more or less remain at the same level as we see it now in the first quarter. There are not so much seasonality effects towards the rest of the year, maybe a little bit increasing, but the level that we have seen here in the first quarter will be more or less the same for the rest of the year. And regarding your question on the disposals, that always depends on what are the values for which we can sell our assets, for which we can sell the objects at the end when they will be returned. So it's always a fluctuation around 0. This quarter, we had EUR 2 million of gains from disposals. Sometimes it has a negative sign. On average, it's more or less 0. So that's more or less a normal fluctuation we see here.

Anke Linnartz

executive
#12

Thank you. Then we move on to our chat, given that we have a couple of questions coming in from one of the participants joining our session via the Internet. And the first question is regarding our new leasing business in Q1, which equals -- I'm now quoting from the line here, "Which equals the new business leasing volume in Q1 2019, so why did it take so long to reach that level you had already 5 years ago," is the first question.

Sebastian Hirsch

executive
#13

Yes, I will go for it. So there was something happened between 2019 and 2024, especially the pandemic, and there was necessary for us to bring down the new business. Then we had also a short attack. And -- but the most important thing for us was the pandemic and the new business came down. The lowest new business was in 2021 with roughly EUR 1.6 billion, and then we started to rebound. And it's a question of time. It's not done in 1 year and also not in 2 years to bring a EUR 1.6 billion new business back to a roughly EUR 3 billion level, but we started that, let's say, project and, last year, it was roughly the level of 2019. And this year, we go through the EUR 3 billion new business, and it was from our perspective of today, the right decision to bring that healthy growth and the healthy development back to that level. But that's right. It was a bit of long-term run, but that long-term run was also planned.

Anke Linnartz

executive
#14

Okay. So we -- I said it's a couple of questions. It's exactly 2. So I move on to the next one, which is about our NPL ratio and the comparison between Q1 right now towards the previous quarter, Q4 last year. And the NPL ratio now is around 10% for the whole group, meaning 10% of your leasing contracts are defaulting. And in particular, in other countries outside Germany, France, Italy, the NPL ratio increased significantly in a single quarter, so like 11.3% versus 10.6%. And the question is, what's the reason for that? And how will you tackle this adverse development?

Sebastian Hirsch

executive
#15

I will start. So I don't think it's an adverse development. That's right. From a group level, the 10%, it's fair enough. It's also linked to our expectations. That's a very important thing to underline here. In our expected loss calculation, which is part of our CM2, we are calculating with roughly 10%. So the overall expected loss, that's including a probability of default of 10% on the one hand and a net expected loss after recovering and something like that. We can sell in the object and so on, we are calculating between 5% and 6% over a group level. And that level depends on country. In Italy, the level is higher than in Germany or in Scandinavia or in Southern Europe. It's higher also in South America, the level is higher. That's quite normal like each rating agencies calculating that it's a bit the same in our business. And for us, the most important thing is the deviation between the expected level and the current level. So not the absolute level of 10% is our triggering. So it's a question of what is expected, and we are in line with our expectation. And of course, in the macroeconomic environment you see today, there's a bit of fluctuation. You see a bit more leasing contracts and reminder process. You see a bit more NPLs, so nonperforming loans on a gross level looking to the balance sheet and the new business is now growing. So we're accelerating the new business. So from -- let's say, from a steady state, 10% NPL on a gross level is quite normal in our business and that the NPL level in some other countries is higher than in Germany or also in France. The driver is Southern Europe, also South America, that is quite normal. And again, it's a bit of fluctuation of the first quarter, which is quite normal. And the most important thing from a balance sheet perspective, that development was priced in not only in our expected loss calculation from a CM2 margin calculation, also from the expected loss calculation we have on the balance sheet based on IFRS 9 per end of last year.

Anke Linnartz

executive
#16

Thank you. So for the moment, we have no further questions lined up. [Operator Instructions] And this encouraged 2 further people to raise their hands, which is why we can move on now to Dr. Häßler from Pareto Securities.

Philipp Häßler

analyst
#17

Philipp Häßler from Pareto. I have 2 questions. Firstly, on the leasing portfolio that increased by 1.8% quarter-on-quarter. Is this a good run rate for the next quarter? Will this accelerate because new business should accelerate as well? And secondly, on the ECB, you mentioned there's an interest rate cut expected for early June. Well, you didn't mention that, but you said that they will meet early June. And currently, there is an interest rate cut expected. Would you expect this to have a positive impact on Grenke or neutral, negative? Maybe you can comment on this.

Martin Paal

executive
#18

So I will start. Mr. Häßler, with your second question on the interest rate environment, we are always passing through all the interest rates and the fluctuations from the funding side into our leasing portfolio. So that means that independent of whether we see increases or decreases in interest rates, we always try to come up with a more or less stable CM2 margin of 17%. So if interest rates will now go down over the next quarters as it is expected or not, yes, macroeconomists are not that clear in their opinions. But however, we do not expect significant effects on our business because we always follow the pass-through of interest rates if they go up or if they go down. And another topic is we are market leaders or near to market leaders in our largest markets. So all the other competitors will have a very close look at us. So if we will not go down with our conditions once interest rates have gone down, so there might be a risk of losing business. And therefore, we will really closely look at the interest rate environment and the development and then emergent or directly will also adjust our conditions for the leasing contracts.

Philipp Häßler

analyst
#19

If I may ask a follow-up question. But I mean, when interest rates went up, you didn't pass on the higher rates right away. So I would assume that you will now pass on the possible rate decline also only with the time lag. So couldn't there be a onetime positive effect from declining rates -- from declining funding rates?

Martin Paal

executive
#20

Yes, that's true. That's what I meant with. We really do it as fast as possible in terms of interest rate increases, it takes us from 1 to 3 months, about a quarter, to pass these interest rates on, the conditions on. So if interest rates will go down, that's what I meant with maybe a small positive effect on our profitability, but not a lasting effect.

Sebastian Hirsch

executive
#21

In addition to that, it's always a question in our business of how surprising an interest change is. And the interest rate development over the last 2 years was, let's say, a bit surprising. It was very sharp, very fast. And then we see that time lag when we look to the interest yield curve from the capital market, the interest, maybe the decision to come from ECB is priced in, in the interest yield curve. And so it's also priced in our funding on the one hand, in our funding costs and our calculated funding cost for our contribution margin calculation. And then it depends a bit on the decision and may as always, on the wording of ECB in beginning of June. And to the leasing portfolio, so yes, you're right, it was 1.8%. And looking to the growth pace, when you look quarterly, quarter-by-quarter, it should be a bit more from quarter-to-quarter. And the reason is quite easy because the new business portfolio of 2019, that was the last pillar and the long-term portfolio of 2019 is now running out, and that is a very high leasing portfolio. So the 5 years and a bit -- 6 years, but more than 5 years are now in the end of the lifetime and then running out. And after that, it's like a restart in the portfolio with a low new business and then the growth in '22, '23 and '24. So over the next quarters and especially in the next year, we should see the leasing receivable development more in line with the leasing new business development over the last years. That's because of the development of the 2018, 2019 portfolio and then the down a bit different if you're only growing. And so it's now roughly 2%. I guess for the next 2 quarters, it could be the same. Over the year, it should be more or less 12% in growing and there should be a bit acceleration.

Anke Linnartz

executive
#22

Okay. So we move on to Mengxian Sun from Deutsche Bank, please.

Mengxian Sun

analyst
#23

So the first question is, could you provide us an update on the sales of the factoring business? And the second question is, if I look at the net profit in this quarter, this is less than 20% of the lower end of guidance. So I would assume that you need a quite significant increase in the profitability to achieve the guidance. So how do you see your path to achieve that? Should this improvement mainly coming from the net interest income expansion? Or should we also expect to see some cost reductions?

Martin Paal

executive
#24

Ms. Sun, I will take the first question on the factoring business. We have started an organized sell-side process with providing potential investors with all sell-side information that is needed so far, and we have divided it in typical M&A phases. And we are now in the first phase where we're still awaiting from the potential investors, the so-called nonbinding bids where they hand in their proposals to buy the business. And this is currently going on. And after that, we will put all the offers on the table and evaluate what is there and how we will move on then into the next phase. And we are confident that we will have a decision here and really have sold the business until the end of this year. And regarding the profit, in Q1, we have seen a profit increase of 25% compared to the first quarter of last year. So you know our dynamics of the P&L that we are some seasonality -- that there are some seasonality effects in there. So we are still confident that we will reach our guidance level of 95% to 115%. Although you're right, if you just divide the guidance by 4%, then you would expect a higher level of earnings in the first quarter. But as I said, there are some seasonality effects in there, and that is okay from our side. And we do not expect any cost cuts during the year. But for sure, we have a high cost discipline. As I explained, we are closely looking at our cost income ratio. We expected some cost increases on the personnel -- on the staff cost that we have seen. Other components remained more or less stable and all within the expectation of our plan. So we are confident on our guidance.

Sebastian Hirsch

executive
#25

And despite the cost development, and we talked a bit about interest rate development for that year, it's also important to improve and growing in our volume and the acceleration in volume, acceleration in new business also during the year will also support the P&L of Grenke, not that much. As you know, that the new business is not that relevant for that year. But with that growth we had over the last couple of quarters, and we will see for that year, in line with our ambition, we will also see a bit of an acceleration on the P&L.

Anke Linnartz

executive
#26

We have a follow-up question from Mr. Thormann from HSBC, please.

Johannes Thormann

analyst
#27

First of all, on the tax rate, could you be a bit more precise on this year's guidance because last years have been ranging from 21.5% to 24.2%. So this is something still very big range. Secondly, on the factoring business, are you talking about an outright sale until year-end? And will we see a one-off negative for the sale? Or can you exclude this one-off negative for this year?

Martin Paal

executive
#28

Yes. Let me start with your follow-up question on the factoring business. We're expecting an outright sale, so that means we have the factoring business organized in 6 legal entities and 2 branches of GRENKE Bank. So we're really going for a sale of the whole business. And we do not expect any significant negative or positive one-off effects during the year. You know that the factoring business, if you have a look at our segment reporting, is loss-making. So once the factoring business is out of the balance sheet and especially out of the P&L from the next year and following on, then there would be a slight positive effect. But for this year, we do not expect any neither positive nor negative significant effects.

Sebastian Hirsch

executive
#29

Yes. And from a tax rate perspective, again, looking into our planning, our calculation, it's always a question what's the right tax rate, it's the right number. And we are calculating with a tax rate of roughly 23% in our planning. But again, there could also be a bit volatility and fluctuation in the tax rate as we saw that in the last years, but from a long-term run in our business with our country portfolio, a tax rate between 22% and 25% is quite fair. But it depends a bit on in which country you do what business, a bit on transfer pricing policy, which country is paying something in terms of transfer pricing based on volume, based on headcount and so on. And there, you can always see a bit volatility and fluctuation. Our planning is with 23%. And from a long-term or midterm run, you can go 22 bps to 25%. So that's quite fair for the current portfolio and the current country mix.

Anke Linnartz

executive
#30

So we again switch to our participants on the chat and got a question from [ Andrea De Donno. ] Regarding our buyback program, and he is wondering about how many shares have been bought so far? And over what time frame is this number? So how long is the program running? And how many shares have been bought back?

Martin Paal

executive
#31

We have bought back so far some 500,000 shares -- 508,000, 510,000 shares, which is a little bit above 1% of our shares, and we are aiming for 5%, as Mr. Hirsch already explained at the beginning. The program now lasts for 11 weeks and 11 weeks means since mid of February. And during the Annual General Shareholders Meeting, we had a planned break that is necessary for legal reasons to do not buy back shares during this time. And we have spent already roughly EUR 12 million in that program with an average share price of EUR 23 per share. And at the end of the first quarter, yes, 31st of March this year, we had roughly EUR 7 million spent for the share buyback program, and this has been recognized as a deduction from our equity ratio.

Anke Linnartz

executive
#32

We have another question also from [ Mr. Do Donno ] regarding costs, and he's doing a comparison between fiscal year '23 and an expected number now for this year. And he said, in fiscal year '23, cost excluding other costs were EUR 310 million. And how much of an increase in absolute euro do you expect for this year?

Martin Paal

executive
#33

Yes. So I think you mean excluding other costs, you mean all the costs that we have below operating income of last year of EUR 310 million. We're expecting growth in cost. That is clear because we are growing. We saw it already in the first quarter a growth in staff costs, but also growth in other cost components. You know that we have launched our digitalization program, which is also well on track in terms of spending costs, in terms of the things we are doing there regarding going into the cloud transformation and so on. But the growth in cost is not as high as growth in earnings and new business volumes so that we -- as net effect, we will see earnings growth on the bottom line growing over the next years.

Anke Linnartz

executive
#34

So just checking here my screen, but there's no question from our participants in the call and neither from the participants in the chat. [Operator Instructions] So I think, ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us. If questions spring to your mind right after our call, please do not hesitate to get in touch. On July 3, we are going to release our new business figures for the second quarter 2024. And of course, yes, it was our pleasure to have you. Take care, and have a nice day. The conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect now. Thank you, and goodbye from Baden-Baden.

Sebastian Hirsch

executive
#35

Thank you. Bye.

Martin Paal

executive
#36

Bye-bye.

This call discussed

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