Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. (GGAL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
August 23, 2023
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorGood day, everyone, and welcome to the Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Release Call. Today's call is being recorded. And now at this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Pablo Firvida. Please go ahead.
Pablo Firvida
executiveThank you. Good morning, and welcome to this conference call. I will make a concise introduction, and then we will take your questions. Some of the statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Federal Securities Laws and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed. According to the monthly indicator for economic activity, MI, the Argentine economy recorded a 5.5% year-over-year contraction during May. In year-to-date terms, the economic downturn stood at minus 1.3%. During the first half of 2023, the primary deficit reached 1.1% of GDP. This implies an increase against the deficit of 1% accumulated during the same period of 2022. Results that was explained by revenues increasing by 90.4%, whereas primary spending rose 95.5%. The national CPI recorded 50.7%, increasing during the first half of 2023 including July. Accumulated inflation for 2023 reached 60.2%, recording 113.4% annual variation in the last 12 months, which entailed an acceleration against the 71% of July 2022, 12 months trading inflation with inflation hitting its highest mark in 30 years. On the monetary front, the Argentine Central Bank expanded the monetary base by ARS 516.3 billion in the second quarter, recording a 47.8% increase from June 2022. The exchange rate averaged ARS 248.8 per dollar in June 2023, a 43.9% increase against the average of December, which implies a 30.5% peso devaluation. When compared to June 2022, the Argentine peso underwent a 50.7% devaluation. In June 2023, the average rate on peso-denominated private sector time deposits for 59 days stood at 92.9%, 44.5 percentage points above the average of June 2022. After the primary elections, the Argentine Central Bank devalued the peso by 17.9% to ARS 350 per dollar. Additionally, the monetary authority increased interest rates with the monetary policy rate and the minimum rate for time deposits under ARS 30 million currently standing at 118%. Private sector deposits in pesos averaged ARS 21.9 trillion in June, increasing 22.6% during the quarter and 115.5% in the last 12 months. Time deposits in pesos rose 23.8% during the quarter and 125.8% in the year. Peso-denominated transactional deposits increased 21.2% during the second quarter and 106.9% in year-on-year terms. Private sector dollar-denominated deposits amounted to $15.5 billion at the end of the quarter, decreasing 5.2% in the quarter and 0.6% in the last 12 months. During June, peso-denominated loans to the private sector averaged ARS 9.5 trillion, increasing 25.6% in the quarter and 86.5% when compared to June 2022. While private sector dollar-denominated loans amounted to $3.8 billion recording an expansion of 4.6% during the quarter and of 0.3% when compared to June 2022. Turning now to Grupo Financiero Galicia. Net income for the second quarter amounted to ARS 58 billion, 425% higher from the year ago quarter, mainly due to profits from Banco Galicia for ARS 51.8 billion, from Galicia Asset Management for ARS 4.4 billion, from Galicia Seguros for ARS 894 million and from Naranja X for ARS 185 million. This profit represented a 4.9% annualized return on average assets and a 25.9% return on average shareholders' equity. Banco Galicia net income for the quarter was 555% higher than in the year ago quarter. The net operating income increased 62%, mainly due to 196% increase in net interest income. Average interest-ending assets reached ARS 2.68 trillion similar level to that of the same quarter of 2022, mainly due to a 14% decrease in the average volume of peso-denominated loans, offset by 110% increase in the average volume of other interest-earning assets in pesos. In the same period, its yield increased almost 34.2 percentage points, reaching 79.1%. Interest-bearing liabilities increased 4% from June 2022, amounting to ARS 2.31 trillion. This growth was mainly due to 12% increase in the average balance of time deposits in pesos offset by a 20% decrease in the average balance of peso-denominated saving accounts. During this period, its cost increased 28.2 percentage points to 56.6%. Net interest income for the quarter increased 196% from the same quarter of 2022, with interest-earning income growing 131% and interest expenses growing 108% in the same period. It is worth to remember the change in the valuation model of the Argentine Central Bank Paper, Leliqs, acquired from January 1, 2023. These instruments used to be valued at fair value, and the criteria was changed to amortized costs, thus each year is being recorded as interest income instead of within results from financial instruments. Net fee income increased 15% from June 2022 mainly due to a 27% increase of fees related to bundle of products, 44% increase of fees and collections and a 19% higher fee income from deposit accounts. Net income from financial instruments decreased 73% as a consequence of the change in the valuation model of Central Bank Paper I have just mentioned. Gains from gold and FX quotation differences were 586% higher from the year ago quarter, including the results from foreign currency trading. Other operating income increased 109% in the quarter. As a result of the 138% increase in other adjustments and interest and miscellaneous receivables as a consequence of the valuation of financial instruments granted in guarantees. As regards provision for loan losses, the amount for the quarter was 8% lower than those recorded in the year ago quarter, reaching ARS 14.8 billion. Personnel expenses were 4% higher than in the second quarter of 2022, in line with an increase of staff while administrative expenses were 3% higher due to a 24% increase of taxes. Other operating expenses increased 70% due to an 80% higher turnover tax due to an increase in the gross income tax from financial operations as a consequence of the increase in the holding of Leliqs and 57% higher charges for other provisions related to discounts on credit cards and payroll accounts. The income tax charge was ARS 17.1 billion higher than in the second quarter of 2022, with an effective tax rate of 25%. The bank's financing to the private sector reached ARS 1.58 trillion at the end of the quarter, down 13% in the last 12 months with peso-denominated loans decreasing 13% and dollar-denominated loans 20%. Exposure to the public sector increased 22% year-over-year due to a 36% increase in the holding of Leliqs. Excluding the exposure to the Central Bank, Leliqs and repurchase agreement transactions, net exposure represented 13% of total assets, the same level as of the end of the second quarter of 2022. Deposits reached ARS 2.95 trillion, 1% lower than a year before, mainly due to a 34% decrease of checking accounts in pesos partially offset by a 34% higher balance of other deposits in pesos. The bank's estimated market share of loans to private sector was 11.77%, 30 basis points lower than at the end of the year ago quarter and the market share of deposits from the private sector was 9.92%, 24 basis points lower than in the same quarter of last year. The bank's liquid assets represented 123% of transactional deposits and 58% of total deposits up from 91% and 50%, respectively, from a year before. As regards to asset quality, the ratio of non-performing loans to total financing ended the quarter at 2.65%, reporting a 49 basis points deterioration as compared to the 2.16% of the second quarter of the prior year. At the same time, the coverage with allowances reached 161%, down 57 percentage points from the 218% recorded a year ago. As of the end of June 2023, the bank's total regulatory capital reached 23.64% decreasing 45 basis points from the end of the same quarter of 2022. In summary, in a particularly challenging and volatile macro environment, Grupo Financiero Galicia was able to keep asset quality, liquidity and solvency metrics at healthy levels and to significantly improve its profitability in spite of the significant impact of the high inflation of the quarter. We are now ready to answer the questions that you may have.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] We'll first hear from Brian Flores of Citibank.
Brian Flores
analystJust 2 questions on my side. The first one is a midterm strategic one regarding the positioning of some candidates with the Central Bank. Given that we now have a bit more visibility on what they are intending to do with the Central Bank, should we expect any reduction in your exposure before the election? And if you could share any color on your conversations that you've had with, any approaches on the candidate teams, it would be great. And I'll do my second question afterwards.
Pablo Firvida
executiveWell, when you were asking, the first idea that came to my mind is a statement made by the former congressmen saying that when you are far from becoming a President, meaning you have a low percentage of votes, you can have extreme statements. And when you come closer to becoming a President because you are having more votes, you become more cautious. So many of the statements actually made by Milei, that was a surprise with 30% of the votes were made when he was very far from becoming President. Still today, I think the environment or the situation is very open because, first, the difference was very small between the 3 main candidates. 30% of Milei, 28% of Juntos por el Cambio, basically Macri's party and 27% Peronism with Kirchner. It's all So between the 385% with very small difference and with 70% of the voters actually voting. This is usual that in the primaries, there is a small or a smaller percentage of voters. So when we come to the elections in October, we think that perhaps will be more than, I don't know, 2 million voters adding to this small difference. So really, we are in an open situation. But what we think as a clear message is that almost 2/3 of the population with some kind of change of regime. As with this change of regime, really it's very difficult to make forecasts. Some well, delay in particular, speaking about dollarization some of his advisers are saying that it's not really a full dollarization that will take some time in the second wave of measures, others speak about the monetary economy, meaning that we could have contracts in dollars. But everybody is thinking that the key measures to balance or improve the economy is to reduce the fiscal deficit, and we are happy with that. That will mean there will be less monetary expansion and less Leliqs going forward. So in the midterm strategy, as you said, we are happy with the exposure to the Central Bank and with the government papers basically because we are seeing deposits growing in line with inflation and loans growing around 10 to 15 percentage points below inflation. So that gap is invested in both 28 days Central Bank paper, the Leliqs and in government paper that basically are tied to inflation and allow us to hedge against inflation. Sorry, if the answer was too long, but I wanted to include the political environment, not only the potential measures of the candidates.
Brian Flores
analystAnd my second question is a bit on asset quality. I just wanted to understand what are you seeing there? Because as you mentioned, loan growth is still below deposits and inflation growth. So just wanting to understand a bit more, what are you seeing there on asset quality and if this is a concern going forward when you decide to finally reaccelerate longer?
Pablo Firvida
executiveWell, asset quality has been deteriorating slightly really from very low levels. In the case of the bank, it became from 2.16 to 2.65 the NPLs. So really very, very low. If you think in an economy that is not growing this high level of inflation, economic and political uncertainty, one could think of much higher ratios of NPLs. Also coverage is very healthy above 160%. We could expect some slight deterioration going forward for the second half of the year, but really nothing dramatic as I many times repeat. I'm sorry, if I'm becoming a lot of -- I repeat a lot this concept, as inflation is very high and many of the loans were granted very short term with fixed interest rates, really, the installments become diluted and it's easy for both companies and individuals to pay back their loans. The other side of the coin is that with this high of inflation, we have a negative impact on the [Foreign Language] in Spanish or the monetary loss due to inflation. So we could see some slight deterioration, but nothing really dramatic. If I had to say less than 3% NPLs at the [indiscernible] level at the end of the year.
Brian Flores
analystPerfect, Pablo. And just if I can, just a final question. With these circumstances and this very strong quarter, are you revising your ROE guidance for 2023?
Pablo Firvida
executiveWell, this high ROE quarter gives us a higher forecast. I would say that around 15% for the full year, the original estimates were around 10%. So in the area of 15%, 14% perhaps also. We have to see, of course, how the pass-through of this deviation goes to inflation, and while inflation has a direct impact on this item, that I mentioned, the monetary loss due to inflation, but also it has impacts on interest rates, loan demand, deposits fees, administrative expenses. But we got a thinking that, I would say, in the base case scenario, we should have an increase of the order I mentioned.
Operator
operatorNext, we'll hear from Ernesto Gabilondo of Bank of America.
Ernesto María Gabilondo Márquez
analystI have 3 questions from my side. The first one will be on the political outlook. How much power does President have in Argentina to make decisions related to IMF negotiations or to dollarize the country or to make changes to the Central Bank? I think some of the decisions need to pass to Congress, but some decisions can be taken by himself. And then my second question will be on your investment strategy. So we continue to see high inflation levels, high interest rates, further depreciation of the currency. So how is Galicia positioning to navigate under this volatility? I don't know how your positions, bonds related to inflation or investments related to FX will be interesting? And then my last question is on how should we think about the loan growth under this economic variables? And how should we think about the ROE next year considering that this year you have been benefiting because of the gains on investment securities and FX, but once we start to see a normalization, once we start to see lower rates, how should we think about the ROE?
Pablo Firvida
executiveFirst, regarding the political power of a President, I guess you are thinking, if Milei comes to office, if he will be able to put together certain reforms that he would like to have or at least he saying that. Most of the changes must be done by law in Congress. He will not. If he repeats the election of the primaries, he will not have any, I would say, important process in Congress. So he will need to have agreements or alliances, the most rational type of alliance would be with a Macri's party, Juntos por el Cambio. Between the 2, they could have a quorum and have laws that they can make reforms. In terms of investments. Sorry, I don't know if you have a comment on that.
Ernesto María Gabilondo Márquez
analystIn that question, so we know that Milei will need to have agreements in order to make structural changes. What are the things that he can do? What can he do?
Pablo Firvida
executiveWell, first, in my opinion, it's not clear if his advisers fully agree with certain speeches. The main idea -- economic idea he has been saying is dollarization. From a practical standpoint, many even also the economies are saying that it's impossible, not only in the short term, but in the medium term, too. Others are saying that in order to get to a dollarization, you have to make a lot of homework, basically reducing the fiscal deficit and actual becoming a super avid, not a deficit or a surplus. And so this type of economies, if you do the homework, why dollarize, it makes no sense. Others are saying that they would like to have 2 currencies so that we can have contracts in dollars, but any big reform they must be, I would say, approved by Congress. And that's why I'm saying that he must negotiate and have alliances. Even as I mentioned in the past or earlier in this call, when you have, I don't know, 20% of the votes, you can say I will close ministers, I will go from 20-plus ministers to 8 and fire off all the people. Now that he got 30, he's saying, well, I will close certain ministers, I will create secretaries, not ministers, and I will not fire the people against the ones that are political people that were put there as a favor. So I think he will have to become part of what he is, I would say, criticizing. He keeps speaking about the political [ cast ] or a group of people with a lot of power that take decisions for themselves, but he will have to have this support and alliances in Congress. So in my opinion, many of the ideas or projects will take time, and they will need some kind of support. Well, going to the second question.
Ernesto María Gabilondo Márquez
analystSo in the Central Bank, can he do some changes? Or he doesn't have the power to do that?
Pablo Firvida
executiveWell, typically, all the members of the Board of the Central Bank must have the approval of the senators. We are now with some kind of anomaly that some members of the Central Bank are not yet approved, but they are working. But the rule of law, what the law says is that the Senators must approve the members of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank. In terms of investments, first, I will mention the dollar position. We cannot be long in dollars in the spot, we have -- the net position must be 0. We can go long in dollars through forward contracts that could be up to 5% of the regulatory capital. Sometimes we are longer than or shorter depending on the situation, what are the interest rates, the yield on different financial instruments. I would say that the risk appetite is to -- need to have this type of government exposure, meaning the national treasury, not the central bank, around 13% of total assets and basically instruments tied to inflation that protects us against the inflation with 2 months lag that is -- so it's not a perfect coverage, but in the medium term, it covers your liquid network. And the third question was regarding loan growth. With this level of inflation that implies the high level of interest rates we are not seeing recovery in loan demand in real terms. So we need definitely a change in the economic regime that will attack inflation and in a bill to cycle, interest rates going down. We don't need inflation to go to levels of, I don't know, 10%-20% have real loan growth. Actually, with 50% inflation in the past, and in some quarters or years, we have positive loan growth. But definitely, with 3-digit inflation is not possible. So ROEs going forward in this scenario of bill to cycle, in my opinion, should be better for banks because loan demand will expand. Right now, loans to GDP is very, very low, around 9%. So really very low. So if inflation goes down, interest rates goes down and volume expands significantly and it helps us to make projections and better projections and decisions to invest and to grow not only as a bank, as a holding company, Grupo Financiero Galicia has already invested in an insurance company and also our clients can have a clear horizon in order to invest. There are lots of projects in oil and gas, mining, agricultural sector, digital economy. So there is a lot of possibilities out there, but we need definitely a much healthier macro economy.
Ernesto María Gabilondo Márquez
analystPerfect. So just on the last one. So once we have better economic outlook and stronger loan growth, do you think that will be enough, this year the banks are benefiting a lot from the investment securities positions and FX. I think, that is likely not to continue next year. So do you think that with the stronger loan growth should be able to offset lower yield from the securities portfolio?
Pablo Firvida
executiveWell, we have to see the speed of that. Many times the speed of changes in Argentina surprised everybody. But I would say, yes, the compression in margin should be similar, let's say, to the increase in volume in loans and with lower inflation, the monetary loss to inflation will be lower. So ROE should be, I would say, around 15%, that would be a target, medium-term target and perhaps with a much healthier mix, not just from -- or mainly due to high interest from Leliqs and government paper.
Operator
operatorNext, we'll hear from Yuri Fernandes of JPMorgan.
Yuri Fernandes
analystI had just returning on this on FX. If you can comment on the develop of August and your base case for the currency during the year. And like if you are calling for a further to evolve or not, what is your base case? You discussed your FX gap, how it increased this quarter. So I guess you are being prepared for that. But I would like to understand, like the moving parts, how this impact you? And what is your base case for potential development in Argentina?
Pablo Firvida
executiveSorry, I couldn't hear you very properly. You said a potential default?
Yuri Fernandes
analystNo. The valuation of the currency, right? The peso devaluated maybe 20% now in August. I guess there are some economies that they are calling for further devaluations after elections. So I would like to hear your base case, what Galicia is calling for potential evolves and the impact for you, because it seems our balance sheet has been more prepared like you're increasing your FX gap. So also, how potential develop impact you?
Pablo Firvida
executiveAs I mentioned, we cannot be long in dollars in the spots. So there the position must be zero. We can go long in dollars up to 5% of our regulatory capital with forward contracts. We have 1, I would say, waiver or different instruments that are the dual bonds that with devaluation, we get that benefit, and it's not within the zero position in the spot. So in August, after this devaluation, you could see a benefit for the next quarter of that devaluation. But in theory, if we sell or we have no dual bonds, there is no instant impact on devaluation. Of course, we have to look at our clients. Really, what happens in most of the cases is that the private sector in Argentina is very long in dollars. And the public sector is the one that is short in dollars. So really, there is a kind of wealth effect with the devaluation. What is hard to forecast right now is what will be the pass-through to inflation of the devaluation of the official exchange rate. Because the imports have been controlled or restricted, many importers have been pricing their products at different exchange rates, not the official one that is allowed for importers. But I would say that in general, the impact for banks of the devaluation is not a -- direct one comes from the impact of our clients, and again, could be, I would say, better. And one other thing is that most of the economists are saying that the financial dollars are too expensive and the official one perhaps is too cheap. So something -- but with this 20% increase to 350, we are getting closer to a more, I would say, rational or dollar or effects of equilibrium. We don't need to go to 650 or 700. Good exchange rate must be much lower than that.
Yuri Fernandes
analystGot it. So basically, you make more money on financial income on the deval, but also higher inflation hurts your results from net monetary, like the inflation results. So one offset the other, but maybe your clients, they make more money, you have more deposits. So net-net, maybe it's more positive if there are further devaluations in Argentina, right? Is that correct?
Pablo Firvida
executiveYes, yes. And 1 thing is there is normalization of the FX market. Let's say, instead of having so many exchange rates, the 1 that would be at the end in the market perhaps being much lower than the current financial dollars could imply that the conversion of our numbers from peso to dollars will be done at a lower exchange rate, and we could have an improvement in valuations. Because right now, the blue chip swap appears to be very high.
Yuri Fernandes
analystAnd Pablo, just returning to the previous discussions about Leliqs, and the dollarization of the economy, I guess, Ocampo has been a little bit more, well, it may take some time, as you said, 2 years. But how to do that? Like how to replace the Leliqs and how to implement some dollarization. Do you have any guess on how to do it?
Pablo Firvida
executiveWell, there were some interviews in which he said that he would create a trust in which the government or the Central Bank will include all the government paper they have, even they say what the public pension fund has in different financial assets, equity, bonds and so on. And in order they will get dollars and this fund in this bill to cycle will be able to be revalued. But the second question would be if there is a dollarization, what the government would do with the government bonds in pesos and Leliqs. Many times, this type of projects are easy to comment in an Excel or in a PowerPoint, but again, it's very difficult to implement and again, I heard many of the Milei's advisers that are not or don't agree really with all the ideas or procedures. So really, it's not very certain to comment on that. Now it's like more than a rumor, but it's not a fact to comment on this type of idea.
Operator
operatorNext, we'll hear from Carlos Gomez of HSBC.
Carlos Gomez-Lopez
analystCongratulations on a very strong results. I have 2 questions. The first one refers to your margin. I mean, this is the reason why your interest income is so high. You went from a NIM as reported by you from 19% to 28%. Is this just a result of interest rates going up or is there something else, perhaps some timing differences or some particular instruments that yielded extraordinary gains? Is this a normal interest rate, interest income that you would receive for as long as interest rates stay at the current levels or actually they are higher than they were when you had this? So essentially, how much of this interest income is your ordinary interest income? And how much could be especially for some reason or another? And the second question, totally unrelated is, what's happening with Naranja? You have almost have breakeven for 2 quarters. Is there anything that is happening at the consumer subsidiary? And what can we expect for it going forward?
Pablo Firvida
executiveWell, Carlos. As you said, there was a margin expansion. I would say that the main reasons are the Leliqs and the government paper. There were very high, not only high interest rates and yields, there were also some sales of certain instruments at good prices. So if I had to -- it's very volatile, and we have to see if the interest rate keeps at this level of 119%. But actually, this new level was established after the close or actually in August. I am not seeing those numbers in the second quarter release, we are discussing. So perhaps there could be some contraction, but 200 basis points or so, because we are in a very high interest rate environment due to the high inflation. In the case of Naranja, if you look at Naranja X as it was called [indiscernible] when you look at the net operating income or operating income, you see growth. Actually, the operating income has 40% growth compared to the second quarter of the previous year. The thing is that the results from the monetary position had a big impact. And also, they had much higher income tax. They are very sensitive to high inflation. So the bottom line is subject to this impact on high inflation. From an operational standpoint, is doing very well, growing not only with the traditional business of credit cards, but also with the newer business of taking deposits in order to have a cheaper funding and having more merchants and becoming a full digital company. So basically, from an operational standpoint, no problem, very sensitive to high inflation.
Carlos Gomez-Lopez
analystOkay. Going back to the margin. So again, you say that, as you said, the latest increase in interest rate of 118% came after the end of the quarter. So all else being equal, should we expect, therefore, your interest income and your margin to be higher in the third quarter than in the second quarter?
Pablo Firvida
executiveThe thing is that we had some sales of some instruments with again, that's why I'm saying that perhaps you will see some kind of compression. But yes, keeping -- taking out that with higher interest rates, typically, we have higher margins. Although as you can see, the breakdown of deposits have been changing and each time, we have a higher percentage of deposits with cost. One year ago, perhaps if you look at deposits in pesos, they used to 50% and deposits, 50% transactional accounts. Now it's closer to 75%, 25% -- 75% with costs. That's why you are seeing lower balances of taking account or saving accounts and growing balances of time deposits and other remunerated deposits.
Carlos Gomez-Lopez
analystSo your interest income this quarter was ARS 199 billion. How much of that would be represented by these gains from the sales of instruments?
Pablo Firvida
executiveI would say, ARS 10 billion or so.
Carlos Gomez-Lopez
analystSo, that's not much?
Pablo Firvida
executiveWell, the thing is that there are many moving parts, if you forecast next quarter, financial income. For example, what I mentioned regarding the bonds tied to inflation, the government paper, the Leliqs share, or bond shares, the ones that adjust by CPI, they have a lag of 2 months. So if inflation grows in the third quarter, despite us being hedged, we will get part of that in the fourth quarter. That's why it's not so direct the impact.
Carlos Gomez-Lopez
analystOkay. All right. So it's not straightforward. But again, everything indicates, given that inflation is still on the way up that you might continue to have higher interest income in the third and in the fourth quarter. I'm trying to reconcile that with the fact that you're saying you may have a 15% ROE for the year, everything would seem to indicate that, that has a very modest goal and that you may very well be at a higher level than that.
Pablo Firvida
executiveWell, depending on the assumptions you have on monthly inflation, from now on, that's very sensitive. And again, if you have, let's say, a 10% month inflation in August, you will get the benefits of the CPI adjusted bonds 2 months later. So with this big volumes or stops of bonds tied to inflation, it has an important impact, this 2 months delay.
Operator
operatorNext, we'll hear from Nicolas Riva of Bank of America.
Nicolas Riva
analystI just have a follow-up on what you were discussing with Yuri, your net position in dollars. You mentioned, if I understood correctly, that you cannot be net loan dollars in the spot market and only up to 5% of your equity in forward positions. Now if I look at the disclosure you have on your FX position, you mentioned the assets, the liabilities in dollars. And I do see a net long position of about at the official exchange rate. So I'm seeing essentially $1.2 billion net loan at the end of June and your position in forwards is very, very small. So I wanted to reconcile that with your comment saying that you cannot be that long in spot market.
Pablo Firvida
executiveYes. There is what I kind of mentioned in some other question and answer, that the dual bonds are classified as dollar in that chart or in these numbers that you mentioned. And the same with Leliqs. Leliqs are our assets, both the dual bonds and Leliqs are in dollars, in that position, but they are both not considered in dollars for the regulatory net position. So you would have to deduct almost exactly the same number, $1.2 billion are Leliqs, last dual ones at the official exchange rate at the end of June, right? I don't know if I was clear. Basically, you have to deduct these 2 amounts.
Nicolas Riva
analystOkay. But I guess Pablo...
Pablo Firvida
executiveIt's a kind of waiver of the Central Bank.
Nicolas Riva
analystLet's say that in the fourth quarter, change in government and they lift all the restrictions in FX and the official FX jumps basically 2x the level of the blue FX. In that case, would you have big paper gains like gains in your income statement because of that or not?
Pablo Firvida
executiveIf we have, for example, the dual bonds, yes. If we have forward contracts, yes. For the rest, it should be neutral because we must have a zero position. And again, we have to see other type of things of not only our clients, but also if we have what percentage of our expenses are in dollars, our subordinated bond, the $250 million, but there are many other, I would say, byproducts of that. But again, I would like to say that in our opinion, if there is going to be a devaluation with the next government, it shouldn't be that high. The financial dollars today are too high. The blue chip swap, the blue dollar in the street, so most of the economists are saying that should be something in the middle or even lower than in the middle.
Operator
operatorIt appears there are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to our presenter for any additional or closing comments.
Pablo Firvida
executiveOkay. Thank you all for attending this call. If you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. Good morning. Bye-bye.
Operator
operatorThat does conclude today's call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.
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