Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. (GGAL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

August 26, 2026

BASE AR Financials Banks earnings 62 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Grupo Financiero Galicia Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. This conference is being recorded, and the replay will be available at the company's website at gfgsa.com. [Operator Instructions]. Some of the statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. federal securities laws and are subject to risks and uncertainty that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed. Investors should be aware of events related to the macroeconomic scenario, the financial industry and other factors could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the respective forward-looking statements. Now I will turn the conference over to Mr. Pablo Firvida, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

Pablo Firvida

executive
#2

Thank you. Good morning, and thank you for joining this conference call. Before reviewing our operating performance, I would like to briefly address the macroeconomic backdrop that shaped the performance of the financial system during the quarter and provide the context for our business trends. According to the monthly indicator for economic activity, MI, the Argentine economy expanded 2.7% year-over-year in June and recovered 0.8% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Despite this month improvement, activity remained 1.1% below December 2025 levels, mainly reflecting the declines recorded in April and May. In the second quarter of 2026, the primary surplus stood at 0.4% of GDP, in line with the level recorded in the second quarter of 2025. On a year-to-date basis, the primary surplus reached 0.8% of GDP. During the first half of the year, total revenues declined 5.7% year-over-year in real terms, while primary spending decreased 2.8% in real terms. The National Consumer Price Index accumulated a 33.5% increase on a year-over-year basis and a 16% increase during the first months of 2026. During the quarter, monthly inflation decelerated from 3.4% in March to 1.9% in June. The monetary base expanded by ARS 4.1 trillion during the second quarter and ARS 8.5 trillion from the end of June 2025, representing a 23% year-over-year growth. In June 2026, the exchange rate averaged ARS 1,450 per dollar, implying an 18.5% year-over-year depreciation. The average rate on 30-day peso-denominated private sector time deposits above ARS 1 billion, [ Tamar ] stood at 22.7%, 10.9 percentage points below the June 2025 average. Turning now to the financial system. Private sector peso-denominated deposits averaged ARS 117.4 trillion in June, increasing 8.4% during the quarter and 31.8% over the last 12 months. Time deposits grew 8.2% during the quarter and 45.5% year-over-year while peso-denominated transactional deposits declined 8.4% during the quarter but increased 17.1% year-over-year. Private sector dollar-denominated deposits amounted to $39.4 billion, increasing 1.9% during the quarter and 29.6% over the last 12 months. Peso-denominated loans to private sector averaged ARS 98.7 trillion in June increasing 6.8% quarter-over-quarter and 36.4% year-over-year. Private sector dollar-denominated loans amounted to $23.5 billion recording a 14.6% quarterly growth and a 48.8% annual increase. Overall, the second quarter was characterized by a more stable macroeconomic environment improving real activity indicators and continued expansion across key financial system aggregates. Moving on to Grupo Galicia. Net income for the second quarter amounted to ARS 258 billion, 12% higher than in the previous year which represented a 2.1% return on average assets and an 11.3% return on average shareholders' equity. This result was mainly due to profits from Banco Galicia for ARS 158 billion from fund of [ FEMA ] for ARS 38 billion from Naranja X for ARS 36 billion from Galicia Seguros for ARS 23 billion and from Galicia securities for ARS 8 billion. Banco Galicia net income improved by ARS 211 million sequentially and 21% compared to the second quarter of 2025, supported by lower funding costs due to the consolidation of lower interest rates, stronger performance from government securities and derivatives and a modest expansion in net interest margin. Credit quality trends also improved, reducing loan loss provisions while ongoing integration synergies from Galicia mas ex HSBC, drove further efficiency gains. Results additionally benefited from lower inflation driven monetary losses in a decelerating inflation environment. Average interest selling assets reached ARS 30 trillion, 6% higher than in the previous quarter primarily driven by a 27% higher volume government securities in pesos and a 37% higher volume of government securities in dollars, together with the 9% growth of dollar-denominated loans, while peso-denominated loans decreased 7%, in line with a more selective origination policy and lower demand. In the same period, its yield decreased 190 basis points reaching 21.1%, 34.8% in peso portfolio and 7.4% in the dollar portfolio due to lower yields on both local and foreign currency denominated loans. Interest-bearing liabilities decreased 3% from March 2026, amounting to ARS 24 trillion, mainly due to a 10% lower volume of liabilities in dollars, partially offset by an 8% increase in peso-denominated time deposits. During this period, its cost decreased 159 basis points to 10.1%, reflecting the broad-based decline in interest rates that began towards the end of the first quarter of 2026. Net interest income decreased 3% when compared to the prior quarter. Interest income declined 8%, mainly driven by a 17% lower interest income from loans and other financing due to lower volumes and the decline in interest rates during the quarter. This was partially offset by a 20% higher income from government securities, primarily driven by higher average portfolio and stronger returns from CPI-linked securities. Interest expenses were 16% lower, mainly related to deposits. Net fee income increased by 2% quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to a 14% decrease of fee expenses. Net income from financial instruments was 275% higher than in the previous quarter, mainly due to lower losses from derivative financial instruments, which decreased 85% and 84% rise in results from the derecognition of assets driven by sales of [indiscernible] securities classified at fair value through [ OCI ], higher gains from government securities measured at fair value and a recovery in the results from private sector securities. Results from quotation difference of foreign currency decreased 13% quarter-on-quarter. This performance was explained by a lower level of transaction activity given that the previous quarter had registered a higher volume of operations by retail customers. Provision for loan losses declined 8% quarter-on-quarter driven by a decrease in loans becoming Stage 3 and the associated deterioration of that portfolio, reflecting signs of improvement in the delinquency indicators observed during the quarter. Personnel expenses went up 12% sequentially due to an increase in the provisions for variable payments aligned with improvement in the financial performance, while administrative expenses were flat quarter-on-quarter. Other operating expenses declined 15% quarter-on-quarter driven by a 14% lower turnover tax, 13% lower other fee-related expenses and a 21% decrease in other financial results. The bank's financing to the private sector reached nearly ARS 25 trillion at the end of the quarter, up 4% in the last quarter with peso financing decreasing 4% and dollar-denominated financing up 19%. Deposits reached ARS 27 trillion, 7% higher than the quarter before due to a 7% growth of deposits in pesos and a 6% increase in dollar-denominated deposits. The bank's estimated market share of loans to private sector was 15.1%, 69 basis points higher than at the end of the previous quarter, and the market share of deposits from the private sector was 14.3%, 42 basis points higher than in the first quarter of 2026. The bank's liquid assets represented 93.1% of transactional deposits and 55.2% of total deposits compared to 95% and 56.6%, respectively, as of the previous quarter. As regards asset quality, the ratio of nonperforming loans to total financing ended the quarter at 8.3%, reporting a 60 basis points deterioration as compared to the 7.7% of the first quarter of 2026. The coverage with allowances reached 92.8%, up from 91.4% recorded in the prior quarter. As of the end of June, the bank's total regulatory capital ratio reached 26%, while the Tier 1 ratio was 25.9%, both increasing 4 basis points from the end of the prior quarter. In summary, during the second quarter, profitability improved sequentially, supported by a stronger contribution from financial instruments, lower funding costs reduced loan loss provisions and continued efficiency gains from the integration. Business volumes remained resilient with growth in total financing and deposits, particularly in dollar-denominated loans while we continue to gain market share in both loans and deposits. At the same time, the nonperforming loan ratio increased during the quarter although coverage levels improved and provisions decline, reflecting early signs of stabilization. Overall, Grupo Alicia maintained strong liquidity and solvency metrics, and we remain focused on disciplined growth preserving capital strength and further improving asset quality and profitability over the coming quarters. Now Gonzalo Fernández Covaro will make some additional remarks.

Gonzalo Covaro

executive
#3

Thank you, Pablo. Talking about our financial performance, as Pablo said, we saw a better quarter as interest rates stabilize at lower levels with margins slightly increasing to and also better returns from our loan portfolio. Our cost of risk continue going down as we expected, and expenses under control enjoying the results of last year's restructuring. Talking about volume, loan growth continued to be slow due to a low demand in the commercial credit [indiscernible] peso, better in dollars and strict origination policies on the consumer side. We expect some recovery in the lending volume in the second half. Our projections for loan growth are now around 10% to 15% with more participation on dollar side of companies as it has been happening in the second quarter. We see deposits growing around 10% for the year. As we said in prior calls, cost of risk already had its peak in the fourth quarter, and we started to see credit loss charges to decrease in the first and the second quarter. stabilization and reduction of NPLs will check 1 more quarter than expected. We are seeing now the peak in the second quarter. So in June now, with a stabilization and reduction going forward. In the bank, we expect a slight decrease of NPL ratio in the third quarter and reaching around 6.3% at the end of this year on the NPL ratio. We see a cost of risk for the bank around 8.3% for the full year 2026. That's our expectation for the rest of the year. We are now at 9.3%. So we expect that grade losses charges will continue going down in the second half as it has happened in the first 2 quarters. On the cost side, we are capturing the benefit of the restructure in May last year, as I said, after the HVC acquisition and expect to end the year 11% lower cost than prior year. We already have the same amount of head count than the one we had before the acquisition [indiscernible]. And lastly, regarding returns, we see our ROE around 10% for the year. We trust that the lending volume will pick up to achieve this goal. Of course, while the lending growth is low, we also invest in other earning assets like government bonds at good yields. The goal here is to grow earning assets to be able to continue to improve our needs and results. So with that, I think we are open for questions.

Operator

operator
#4

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Daniel Vaz from Safra.

Daniel Vaz

analyst
#5

Gonzalo and Pablo, maybe my first question will be on your macro expectations for the year. I guess last quarter, you mentioned inflation between 28% and 29%, I would love to get your views on that at the margin as we are looking at August, it seems like inflation is a little bit better, but I'd love to hear your thoughts. And secondly, I'd like to touch base on your loan growth between 10% to 15%, as you mentioned, right now. And you're also appetites to government bond at good yields. Do you think your loan growth could be maybe picking up later as you have good government bonds at goodwill yields right now for you to capture? Or -- and maybe your asset quality isn't as good as you expect for the beginning of the year. So I guess my question is maybe 2027, we still have a not so great loan growth, but good yields improving from treasury results. Maybe that's the -- your P&L balance could be more inclined to that. Is it a good assumption?

Unknown Executive

executive
#6

Thank you for the question. Well, first, talking about economic projections for the year. We see inflation at 29%, around 29% for the year. GDP growth around 2.6%. So it's around the same numbers you were mentioning regarding inflation. Regarding our portfolio mix and our -- I would say that it's both. I mean we are concentrated in trying to grow loans because that's the business we want to grow because it's the one that is sustainable. So we are very close to our customers and many commercial customers to see opportunities. We have seen some dollar opportunities that we capture mainly in the oil and gas arena. And also, there have been some privatizations of state-owned companies that we have been supporting some of the groups [indiscernible] for those that also already require some financing. So we are active there. Of course, it's still slower than what we would like. And on the other hand, yes, we grew in government bonds. I would say that government bonds has a limit. I mean it's not something that in order to continue to improve results, we need to grow our balance sheet from the state we are now. So we can still grow some. We have room to grow more government bonds. But the point is that it is -- we have internal limits, of course, for prudency. So we need to grow lending also.

Unknown Executive

executive
#7

And also to clarify, in the bond portfolio, we have to think. We can have the bond portfolio to buy longer-term bonds to come and put them to a crew, we can classify them as the whole to collect and sell or hold to collect and leave them to accrue interest, but also we have the trading activity. As you know, that, that will continue to happen, that we see opportunities to buy bonds and then sell them and buy longer terms. So we will capture the difference. So it will be both. The trade activity, of course, are going to be very, very active as we have been in the second quarter to capture opportunities. As you know, we have some volatility between now and the elections because it's usual when elections come closer, so we'll try to get advantage on that. We will continue to see opportunities to capture new bonds that have good yields and just have them accruing interest. But at the same time, we'll need to grow our lending portfolio because, as I said, we have internal limits for [ group ] for keeping our bond portfolio. And so we need to do business with the private sector. And that's something that we will be focused on and we are very focused on and we'll continue to be focused on.

Operator

operator
#8

The next question comes from Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America.

Ernesto María Gabilondo Márquez

analyst
#9

My first question is one that I made to the other banks, and it was on the political and macro outlook. So I think it was a couple of weeks ago or 3 weeks ago, we started to see some service or kind of initial pulse ahead of the presidential election next year. So I just wanted to hear your thoughts on what did you see in terms of the business and demand, the consumer confidence, the family indebtedness, the financing of the [indiscernible] projects. Is it something that Galicia can actually participate or it will be more the next years? So all of these things ahead of the election. And my second question is on your ROE guidance. So you delivered 7% in the first half. You mentioned a number, I wasn't -- I didn't get it. So if you can also remind us what was the ROE now for the year? And how should we think about the evolution during the second half? And also, how do you see your medium-term ROE? What do you expect that recovering -- when do you see loan growth start recovering as you've said you have reduced the guidance of 10% to 15%. So just wondering how you're seeing the picture more for the next year.

Unknown Executive

executive
#10

Thank you, Ernesto. I mean, talking about, I mean, the future between now and the election, I mean we will see that Argentina always when there is election, we may have some volatility. We are not seeing it yet. We see that Central Bank has a good and a stronger set of reserves that can help face any volatility issue or any higher demand on dollars than, for example, what happened with last midterm selection. So we believe that, that will help that if there is any volatility that is something that is control, that is something that won't generate big disruptions. So I think that's good for what we are seeing. I mean, I think looking at [ port ] at this time is a bit too early. I mean, this can change every minute. So we are not really focusing on that. I mean, as you know, we are here in Argentina for the long term. So we want to do business regardless the situation, of course, with caution when we see that delinquency is going up, we will change our resection policies, and we adapt to each of the moments, but so far, I mean, things are doing fine. I mean GDP is growing. We are, as I said before, very close to our commercial customers mainly in the oil and gas arena, in trying to serve all the value chain and all the suppliers also of all the oil companies and something that we are doing. And we are, of course, participating. The [indiscernible] financing is very, very big tickets. So at some point, the local financial system we participate with in a very small portion. Some of those financings are already satisfied with international issuances, but of course, we are there for any local portion of the financing that is needed and also as I said before, to serve the value chain of the bigger companies. But as I said, I mean, so far, so good. I mean, we expect some volatility, as always, but nothing really big because we see that Central Bank is better capitalized and with better reserve or the ones that have the last elections. And we see talking about -- you also mentioned indebtedness of the families, we've seen that, that's improving, at least in our portfolio that's improving, and we are seeing our roll rates improving. So that's something that, of course, taking caution on where to land. I think at least for financial system, the worst is -- we are leaving behind the worst. Talking about returns, ROE, what we are seeing the ROE for the year is 10%, around 10%. I mean I cannot measure [indiscernible] that number, but around would say, around 10%. We are 7% and something cumulative. Yes, of course, we see that, that will continue improving, I would say, around 12%, try to end the year with something around 12%. That's the goal, and that's what we are expecting and that's what we are aiming to. For that, we need to continue growing our lending portfolio, of course, at a lower level than what we expected at the beginning of the year, but we are confident that mainly in the commercial side, we can get some traction from now on. Talking about medium-term ROE, of course, that's our -- when we talk about next year, I think we are aiming to be at 15%. I think it's too soon to give a guidance for next year, but that's our target and our aim for next year, and we will confirm the guidance in the third quarter call. That will be closer to year-end, but that's at least what we are aiming and when we do our projections and when we try to shape our balance sheet towards that, again, we confirm that later in the year. When you talk about medium term, well, medium term, it's always -- we're aiming to be above 15%. Where we say between 15% and 20%, we need to see when we are going to achieve that. As you know, we have talked in the past, we have the inflation accounting. That is something that is a burden for Argentine banks and as inflation continued to go down. I would say that in the last year that we have inflation accounting with the lower inflation, it will hurt us more than when we used to have high inflation because interest rate will continue to go down. And with a lower inflation, having that drug in your P&L will be harder and also we'll be more comparable with other countries and -- but we're still having the inflation accounting. So when we are going to reach that, well, it's hard to say, of course, that for sure, when inflation accounting is gone, we still need to see when that will happen. But our long-term ROE target is 15%, 20% talking about next year. we are aiming at 15%, we'll confirm later in the year, if that's something that we'll see first.

Operator

operator
#11

The next question comes from Tito Labarta from Goldman Sachs.

Daer Labarta

analyst
#12

Just I guess my question is on the deposit side of things. You could see a pickup in deposits in the quarter even in peso deposits, although there was about a 22% jump on the savings deposits. Just to think about how are you thinking about deposit growth going forward, both in pesos and in foreign currency, particularly in terms of liquidity, if loan growth does improve into next year, you believe to fund that? And do you think pickup we saw in the peso deposits, in particular, is that sustainable? Was there anything particular in the quarter that jumped in the savings deposits? And yes, I guess I can see that going forward.

Unknown Executive

executive
#13

Thank you. I mean, yes, deposits have imposed in the second quarter. We expect this to continue. As I said, we expect for this year a total growth of 10%, both in deposits I mean we have been managing also the balance sheet. And when we see that the put that the lending is tracking, then we also go and raise deposits is something that we have been managing at some time, we are not growing deposits because we don't need them. So we prefer to do a more efficient balance sheet management. [indiscernible], we continue to customers to increase transaction on deposits and side deposits, but in terms of time deposit that is the one that we have been lagging, but lagging May on purpose because as we don't see the loans tracking high, we prefer to manage better the balance sheet, but deposits are there, we have trade proved that when we go and look for them, we get those deposits. So it's something that will continue raising if the lending is higher as we expect it will happen. That was pesos. So in terms of dollars, we'll see some growth, but it will be, of course, lower than before. We don't have now tax amnesty or there is something, but we don't see that it will be that explosive than the ones of years before. But as U.S. dollars lending continues, okay, we are going to also be active in the markets with issuances in the local market in dollars. We have been issuing commercial papers, and we'll continue that to fund also lending in dollars that is the one from the wholesale arena with the one that we see tracking better. So it's something that we are not that concerned because we think that we can bring those deposits if the lending is there.

Daer Labarta

analyst
#14

And maybe just one follow-up question. I get this one on capital. To see a bit of an increase in your capital ratios this quarter. But with ROE still below the cost of capital? How do you think about the capital ratio evolution from here?

Unknown Executive

executive
#15

I mean capital ratio, I mean, as you know, is high. So it allows us to grow and to -- we think that we have enough capital for the next 3 years, I would say, this year and 3 more for the -- with healthy growth, not with the growth that we have been having, which is low. We expect that at some point in Argentina will start growing its loans as percent of GDP. So we -- for the year-end, we expect to be between 24% and 25%, I would say, capital -- the capital ratio. But then on top of that, we -- with our estimations and paying a reasonable amount of dividends, which is more or less what we have been paying in the past. We expect to have capital for the next 3 years with a country that is growing in real terms, the lending and without needing to raise capital at least for 3 years, then of course, we'll see. But -- and we are okay with this we prefer it. I mean we think that the value of our franchise is the growth ahead rather than a higher dividend. So we will be combining dividends, but at boing that led us growth and capture the opportunity Argentina may bring, if everything continues within the stabilization path. So we think that we have the right level of capital for the growth that Argentina can bring in the next 2, 3 years.

Operator

operator
#16

The next question comes from Brian Flores from Citi.

Brian Flores

analyst
#17

My question is on the net interest margin sustainability, this quarter benefited from funding costs, repricing faster than asset yields and from stronger results on CER linked securities. As rates continue to normalize, how should investors think about the balance between net interest margin pressure from lower loan yields and support from funding costs and treasury positioning?

Unknown Executive

executive
#18

I would say that, yes, of course, that margins will continue to have pressures on the downside as inflation goes down. For the year, talking about the bank, I think we see margins at 16% for the year, for the full year. We are a bit higher now, but we still see that the second half maybe have some pressure to the downside. So -- but full year and average of 16%, I think, is fair to say. But then, of course, next year and the forward onwards, that will have more pressure to the downside if inflation continues going down as we expect. But that's fine. I mean we believe that also the inflation accounting will go down. And the -- that's we're working also in efficiency and expenses reduction in order to compensate that. Total margin is affected by the mix of pesos and dollars. I mean it's totally different. As you know, the mix, the margin between peso, which is above 20% and dollars, which is 3%, 4%. So as we have been growing the dollar lending our margin is also affected by that. It's not that we are deteriorating the peso margin, but the mix affects the numbers. So that will also be affected on the future depending on how the mix evolves going forward. But again, we are getting ready our structure, our cost reduction initiatives and everything for a bank that will have lower margins as will happen with Argentina with a lower inflation. On the other side, we will have lower accounting inflation impact, so that will also be compensating the effects.

Brian Flores

analyst
#19

Good. Now it's much clearer. Just one follow-up, please. Looking ahead, what do you see as the single largest driver for ROE expansion from current levels towards your through the cycle profitability ambitions, credit growth, lower credit costs, operating leverage or balance sheet optimization?

Unknown Executive

executive
#20

I would say that credit growth. I mean we need to grow our top line, our credits. So that's the main one. Cost of risk reduction. I mean we are still at high levels of cost of risk. We know that. We need to continue reducing it, but something that is low. Of course, we are aiming at some point to get it to a 5%, 5.5% cost of risk, we ended with 9.3%. So we are still at higher levels. And so that will be reducing quarter-by-quarter, as I said before. I mean, for the year, we expect to be at 8.3%, and we are at 9.3% now. So that will also be helping this year and next year because next year, we expect [indiscernible] another notch down on cost of risk. So that will be another big contributor to profitability. And we continue with our work in efficiency, even though we -- we made a big one after the [ HVC ] acquisition. We continue not with major initiative but with a regular business as usual plan of head count reduction, branches reduction or branches optimization. That will continue, so we can be more efficient, bring more automation, bring more AI to also have to contribute to the margin reduction. So the only point where it won't come is for margins increase if Argentina continues in this path, but it will be then a mix of balance sheet growth, lending growth, better cost of risk and better efficiency.

Operator

operator
#21

The next question comes from Yuri Fernandes from JPMorgan.

Yuri Fernandes

analyst
#22

Just a clarification regarding a few of your guidance, especially the cost of risk. I think you mentioned 8.3% for the full year. Just checking if this is the end of period or if this is the average for the year, and if this is Banco Galico or if this is the entire holding because I guess your cost of risk for the first half for the group has been running around 11%, 11.5% and for the bank around 9.4%. So just checking 8.3%. This is the fourth Q '26? Or is it the average of the year? So that's question number one. And the same about margins. You just mentioned means around 16%, but when I look to the NIMs of the group here, I see your NIMs for the first half closer to 18% like 17.9% 17.8%. So my question is, is the average or the end of period? Because if this is the average, this would imply a much lower NIM in the second half of the year?

Unknown Executive

executive
#23

Yes, sorry. Yes, I was talking about the bank, maybe I didn't clarify that. So it's -- the 8.3% is just a bank, which is at 9.3% now going to 8.3% for the full year for the 12 months, let's say, I mean, it's 8. 3%, we expect to be. The cost of risk of the bank only for the full year. When I was talking about margins, yes, I was talking also about the bank which is around 17% something. So we expect just to end the year at 16% by the bank and the full group will be more or less around the total group, I think it's almost 18%. I think we expect to end the year around 17% let's say, in the last quarter, 17% in group and 16% in the bank. And cost of risk was bank and in the full year in the 12 months.

Operator

operator
#24

The next question comes from [ Eduardo Zeng ] from UBS.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#25

I have 2 of my slides. So first, a quick follow-up on the growth trends that you highlighted. You mentioned some opportunities in corporate dollar loans than expanding the private sector. I just would like to know if we -- what we could expect for the retail segment? I mean if this more restricted approach that we saw in recent quarters could continue. So this is the first question. And the second one is regarding NPLs. So you mentioned about some stability trends in the end of the quarter, and we all saw that through the broader trends. So if you could provide a quick color on which segments are driving this more significant inflation. It will be very helpful.

Unknown Executive

executive
#26

Okay. The first was the growth in retail. I mean no, we are working had trying to grow also the retail portfolio, I mean, mainly in the personal loans arena, working with risk in order to go to different segments. And we have been seeing our volume in personal loans picking up from the bottom that we had that it was kind of the first quarter of this year. We have been growing the [indiscernible] is moving, the total portfolio is being moved slowly. But we expect that for the second half that can increase again very carefully, going to the right segments. I mean, we have now better products with a lower rates for better segments than going after those that even though they have lower rates, they have also lower cost of risk, also profitability is the same. And so we expect -- I mean, my point is we don't expect the growth we used to have. Still this year, of course, at some point, we'll resume the growth. But for the second half, I would say that a portfolio of personal loans may grow 4% to 5%. But that's better than what we have been seeing. But it's something that we are working and doing champion challengers all the time in order to find ways to grow in the retail segment with good credit quality. And it's something that -- so we expect to improve, not at the point of the commercial engine. But again, we'll be very -- we are being very close to that. So to see whether it's the moment to restart the growth in that arena. And the second point was NPLs, no? I mean NPLs, yes, we have seen -- we're starting to see the turnaround of that. I mean this is mainly -- the main products we have is credit cards and personal loans. And in both, we are seeing that. Of course, that -- as we said before, we are targeting different segments now, and we are attacking also different segments, higher -- I would say, higher segments, and that's paying back. And we -- and that's what we are seeing improvements. We still continue to do champion channel sales to lower segments and still is not the time to grow -- to go back to lower segments, but at some point, we would -- for the end of the year, we expect to be at 6.3% in the bank of NPLs. So that's a reduction from where we are now. We are at 8.3% -- so -- and in general, I mean, we are seeing the amount of customers going or rolling through Stage 2 and 3 improving. So it's something that we expect to continue to see, and we are monitoring that very, very closely.

Operator

operator
#27

The next question comes from Carlos Gomez-Lopez from HSBC.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

analyst
#28

Congratulations on the results and especially in the cost reduction very spectacular. I had a question about the composition of the loan portfolio. A year ago, about a quarter was in dollars. Now it's about 1/3, which is in dollars. Do you have any type of internal limit? Where do you see this portfolio going forward? And since we were asking about economic assumptions, where do you expect this is critical? Where do you expect the dollar to be at the end of this year and next year?

Unknown Executive

executive
#29

Thank you, Carlos. I mean, we have internal limits. But in terms of liquidity, all our deposits growth, we can grow the portfolio. So we are very strict in liquidity and very strict limit in the guiding dollars because, as you know, Argentina has its history of problems with that. So we are around 40% more liquidity in dollars that we are always 40% to 50% liquidity, and that's we are achieving that compliant with that. But our deposit or grew a lot. So that's why we were able to increase portfolio as a core portfolio in dollars, we have a high proportion of the portfolio in dollars, which is short term, is exporter financing, which is very easy to not renew if we -- if our deposits in dollars goes down. So but again, we see -- we still have some room to grow with the current portfolio, the current deposits, but we are also, as I said before, issuing the dollar and commercial paper. So that will give us more capacity to lending dollars. But the limit again is as a liquidity over total deposit that we want to maintain, and we are very compliant with that. The other question was --

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

analyst
#30

The dollar.

Unknown Executive

executive
#31

Dollar, I mean, for the end of this year, I think we are expecting like 1,600 and like 2,000 -- around 2,000 for the end of next year.

Operator

operator
#32

The next question comes from Pedro from Latin Securities.

Pedro Farall

analyst
#33

I wanted to ask on Naranja X specifically. We saw provisions declining quite significantly despite the increase in NPLs, obviously, the loan book also went down. But to ask going forward, how is the new NPL formation evolving this month? And also on coverage, how should we think this? I think, coverage on [indiscernible] of Banco Alicia. It's more like a floor and would you expect going back to 100?

Unknown Executive

executive
#34

Pedro, we can take the advantage that we have [indiscernible] to answer the specific question about Naranja X. And then we can discuss the bank's coverage ratio.

Unknown Executive

executive
#35

[indiscernible]. As you mentioned, we are already seeing a reduction in the cost of mix during the second quarter and for the second half, we still see further reductions on that metric. So in terms of [indiscernible], for the year-end, we are expecting to be around [ 2% ] or 17% from almost 20% levels that we have during the second quarter. As I mentioned recently, it's important to stress the trends that we still see in the short term delinquency rates, [indiscernible] day 4 months rate delinquency rates are still going down, and that's why we are expecting a reduction in [indiscernible] and a recovery in terms of the coverage ratio to the range of 100%.

Pedro Farall

analyst
#36

Perfect. Just to be clear, the number was 17% of NPLs for the year-end.

Unknown Executive

executive
#37

Yes.

Unknown Executive

executive
#38

Thank you, [indiscernible]. And in the case of the bank, we see a gradual improvement in coverage, perhaps in the next quarter getting to 95% and close to 100% at year-end.

Operator

operator
#39

The next question comes from [ Lisandro ] overs from One618.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#40

I have a question regarding volumes in loans and -- if you can please do a double click in the 10% to 15% loan growth, if it's expected peso loans to have a real loan or real growth will come from dollar loans?

Unknown Executive

executive
#41

I mean peso alone will be small to grow. I mean we'll try to push it, but I would say that peso alone will be small, very small growth in real terms than most of the growth will come from the commercial from the dollar side, I would say.

Operator

operator
#42

The next question is from [ Ignacio ] from [indiscernible].

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#43

I have 2 questions, quick questions. Focusing on the bank. Given the 38.8% in the efficiency ratio that reported in the second quarter, I wanted to know where do you see this metric by the end of 2026. And also what is the long-term figure that you have in mind once the synergies with the Galicia has and the other initiatives that you are currently feeling that it's like head count and branch reduction are completed.

Unknown Executive

executive
#44

I would say that for 2026, something below 40% for the band, I would say, try to keep this is like 39%, around 39%. I think that, that will give for the rest of the year. I mean, checking the long term, of course, [ DI ] every reduction will cost more every point because, yes, we'll continue to do efficiencies, but if Argentina continues in this path, margins will go down also. So I'd say that our if [indiscernible] to say a longer-term target, I would like to be between 37% and 38%. But below -- anything below 40% for us is good. We will try to end 37%, 38%, but we need to see how fast the margins also go down. But for us, really, it's very important to continue pursuing cost reductions, and we have now a lot of work streams that implies AI in the [ lower ] customer arena in the call center and contact teams arena in order to continue reducing costs. But again, that will also go [ Pari-passu ] with the margin reductions in the future. So I would say that aiming around 37%. But if we can stay below 40% in the longer run, I think that for us is a good achievement.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#45

Okay. And the second question, just quickly, I know it's some kind of very difficult to answer this, but do you anticipate any regulatory improvements? I am specifically regarding the tax component on lending rates or potential reduction in reserve requirements. I know this is something that is very difficult to answer because it implies going on the monetary policy and the fiscal policy, but I'm sure you have it in the agenda. And I wanted to know your view on this for the medium and long term.

Unknown Executive

executive
#46

I mean it's something that you are talking about regulatory reserves, for example, is something I believe this is not in the agenda now of the Central Bank. Of course, talking about longer term when Argentina continues to grow. It loans to GDP and start to grow significantly the lending. I think that is something that may come back as an agenda for Central Bank, don't see this in the longer medium term -- in the short, medium term. But of course, if Argentina goes to that growth, significant growth in lending, we are all expecting, well, that can come back because it may be needed. I'm talking about tax, I think that, yes, I mean, I think that the agenda of the government is to reduce taxes. So I think that part of the reduction of the cost of credit for customers is taxes. As you know, for example, IT, I think there is one of the -- that won't affect us as a bank, but it will affect customers and maybe help to increase lending. I think the idea to consumers in the lending to consumers. We are one of the few countries in the world that charge VIT to interest, and it's something that is coming back in the discussion because of the high interest rates in the market, et cetera. So something that at some point may be addressed to reduce all the tax burden that the tax has that -- sorry, the lending has in order to reduce the cost for customers. So I see more of that reduction of cost for customers and a benefit to us. We still have, again, as you know, the set taxes and will turn over tax from cities and from provinces, which is a very high burden that we all have. And that's something that we are, as you know, among the banking negotiations talking to a central bank to everyone raising the concern because as margins continue to go down, those costs will need to go down. There is no way that we can continue affording those costs. It's part of what we call the Argentine cost. So that's something that with time, I think that then we will need to go down. I don't know when, but it's something that I think that if Argentina continues stabilizing those high taxes will -- should go down and will go down and it's something that we will be also working with the other banks to always raise that on the change. As you know, [indiscernible] is talking about regulatory things. So whatever this morning, the government announced a new financing for mortgages, something very new. I mean so we are still analyzing it. It's paying deposits from 1 to 5 years to banks in [indiscernible], in inflation-linked time deposits to lend to mortgages. With specific matters, an interest rate cap for customers and a size should be for first housing only. But I think that's a very, very good news that -- the government is very welcomed that the warming thinking means to help mortgages to grow and to help how to solve the problem that the Argentine does have a capital market, a developed capital market that can buy securitization of mortgages, et cetera, that's something we can -- we have discussed in [indiscernible]. So -- which is good for the financial site mainly for the country, as you know, mortgages have to develop economies, families, et cetera. So again, I cannot talk about the specifics of the program because it was announced this morning, so we need to analyze it. But in general, these initiatives, of course, is a good news and a good sign that is well received by [indiscernible].

Operator

operator
#47

The next question comes from [ Federico Cabelli ] from [ AdCap ].

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#48

We've seen a strong growth in dollar loans. And you mentioned that you went for growth in the second half of the year. I wanted to ask you about the other announcement the other [indiscernible] announcement which allows lending dollar deposits to companies without to revenues. I wanted to ask if you plan on growing in this segment also.

Unknown Executive

executive
#49

Yes. I mean, for us, it doesn't change much because we already had availability of commercial type per dollar commercial paper issued and we -- before this announcement, we could lend to non-dollar producers with those commercial papers. So -- and we had availability. So for us, it doesn't bring additional -- they bring [ station ] availability, but we already had it. So it doesn't change a lot. I mean we go very careful on that name by name. We have been doing that with a few big names but it's something that we think will continue to go very carefully because, again, that the lending in dollars in Argentina will be always -- it brings an additional risk of potential devaluation, et cetera. So I mean, we continue, as we have been done in the past, analyzing name by name, but we don't expect a huge growth because of this because, again, is something that we go very carefully. Not just for a matter of prudency with our balance sheet.

Operator

operator
#50

The question-and-answer session is over. We would like to hand the floor back to Pablo Firvida for the company's final remarks.

Pablo Firvida

executive
#51

Well, thank you all for attending this call. If you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. Good morning. Bye-bye.

Unknown Executive

executive
#52

Good morning, bye.

Operator

operator
#53

The conference is now closed. We thank you for your participation and we wish you a nice day.

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