Grupo Industrial Saltillo, S.A.B. de C.V. (GISSAA) Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome to GIS Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Please be advised that this call is meant for investors and analysts only. [Operator Instructions] I will now turn the call over to Mr. Arturo Morales, GIS Treasury and Investor Relations Director. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate your participation in today's GIS Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. With me today are Mr. Knut Bentin, GIS CEO; and Mr. Saul Castaneda, GIS CFO. Knut will provide a high-level overview of the business and key messages for the reporting quarter and full year, and Saul will then discuss the financial results. We encourage you to follow along with the on-screen presentation. Before we begin, please note that today's discussion may include forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ due to a number of factors. Please refer to the earnings release and supporting materials for additional detail and discussion of these factors. We will also reference pro forma measures to aid comparability. Reconciliations and definitions are included in the earnings materials. Unless otherwise stated, figures discussed are expressed in U.S. dollars and most comparisons are on a year-over-year basis. If you did not receive the earnings release, it is available in the Investor Relations section of the company's website. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Knut Bentin, GIS CEO. Mr. Bentin, please go ahead.

Thank you, Arturo, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings conference call. Let me start with a few key messages from the earnings reported yesterday. The fourth quarter reflected cyclical fluctuations with continued pressure on commercial vehicle volumes. Nevertheless, profitability was preserved in this challenging environment, delivering year-over-year EBITDA growth even at a lower volume, drawing from our operating discipline, product mix optimization and continued ramp-up of prior strategic investments. From a top line perspective, the Q4 '25 figure posted a positive performance versus the Q4 '24 and remained relatively stable on a full year basis as some end markets remained under pressure. Nevertheless, our strategy to include more value to our portfolio through machining and plating processes allowed us to offset volume softness, achieving an improved product mix. Finally, as you all may be aware, in December, our Board of Directors decided not to distribute dividends as we are strongly prioritizing financial strength to face current sector challenges. Now let me turn to the macro and industry environment. The last quarter reflected a mixed environment across regions, shaped by uneven demand, high interest rates, supply chain uncertainties and continued trade and policy shifts that are influencing sourcing decisions, pricing dynamics and production footprints. Overall, light vehicle markets were relatively resilient, while commercial vehicles were more volatile, particularly in North America. In North America, light vehicle production remained essentially flat at 3.6 million units in Q4 '25. However, light vehicle sales totaled 4.8 million units compared to 5.1. The sharpest adjustment was attested in commercial vehicles as production had a decline of 30%, consistent with the slower fleet renewal and softer logistics and transportation activity. For the full year, North American light vehicle production totaled 15.3 million units, while sales reached 19.8 million. In contrast, commercial vehicle production for year 2025 was 486,000 units, down 26%. Strategically, tariff dynamics, rules of origin scrutiny and localization priorities continue to privilege local supply, fast operational response and disciplined cost control, especially when commercial vehicles volumes soften. In Europe, light vehicle production posted a modest contraction in Q4 2025 to 4 million, reflecting lower exports and OEM capacity adjustments. At the same time, light vehicle sales reached 4.3 million units, supported by resilient regional economic conditions. Commercial vehicle production increased moderately in the quarter to 142,000 units, also with some signs of deceleration relative to prior quarters. For the full year, European light vehicle production totaled 16.1 million units, down 1%, while sales reached 17.1 million, up 1%. Commercial vehicle production for year 2025 was 547,000 units, down 6%. Europe continues to sit at the intersection of regulatory complexities and intensifying product competition. In this environment, consistent execution, quality and cost-efficient operations matter more than chasing incremental volumes. In China, the local market dynamics remained as the industry's primary growth engine, drawing from the government support and strong new energy vehicle momentum. Light vehicle production rose to 9.8 million units in Q4 2025, up 3%. Light vehicle sales over the quarter declined 2.5%, reflecting a tougher base of comparison, but remaining at elevated levels. For the full year, production attained 33.1 million units, up 10% and sales surged to 28.1 million, up 6.5%, highlighting both the scale and the sustained strength of the market. Overall, these regional dynamics underscore a global industry adapting to trade and commercial policy shifts that are accelerating the importance of regional production, agility, compliance readiness and disciplinated operating models. Against this backdrop, we keep the focus on staying close to our customers, maintaining execution rigor and continuing to align our portfolio towards higher value-added programs that support resilience and profitability at the face of changing demand environment. Turning to Draxton's operational performance. Results this quarter reflected the regional divergence we are seeing across the industry. In North America, casting volumes declined 3% year-over-year to 56,000 tonnes in the quarter, primarily due to the weaker demand for commercial vehicles. This was partially offset by stronger demand for higher value-added components. In this regard, machining volumes were up 17% to 3.7 million units this quarter, reflecting the increase on our installed capacity and launching of new programs. For the full year, North America casting volumes decreased 4% versus 2024 to 246,000 tonnes, while machining volume increased 32% to reach 16.8 million units, supported by the ongoing ramp-up of new platforms. Operational efficiency continued to improve and EBITDA margins resumed the upward trajectory as our fixed cost discipline, productivity initiatives and tighter throughput management are being translated into structural progress, particularly important in a lower volume environment. In Europe and Asia, casting and machining volumes decreased 2% and 8% year-over-year, respectively, to 50,000 tonnes and 1.2 million units over the quarter in a still challenging regional environment. The most significant impact was in the industrial and commercial platforms as these carry a greater weight in this business unit portfolio alongside the effect of customer inventory adjustments. For the full year, casting and machining volume in Europe and Asia decreased 2% and 4% versus 2024, respectively, to 208,000 tonnes and 5.2 million units, broadly in line with the overall industry performance. Across regions, product mix optimization and cost discipline remain just in place, seeking opportunities where our capabilities differentiate us and returns remains resilient as seen in our margin improvement that has been better despite the softer volumes. Regarding Draxton's financial performance, Draxton's quarterly revenue amounted to $216 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 5%, drawing from higher value-added content and new program launches. For the full year, revenues remained stable, largely due to weaker commercial vehicle volumes in North America and Europe, which were partially offset by an improved mix and higher efficiencies from value-added launches. Despite lower casting volumes, Draxton's EBITDA reached $30 million this quarter with a margin of 14%, reflecting a double-digit sequential improvement and a stronger annual performance. Full year EBITDA totaled $115 million, up 8% when compared to that of 2024 with a margin expansion from 12% to 13%. The performance of GISEderlan, our joint venture with Fagor Ederlan remained resilient and continue to validate the strategic value of this partnership, particularly in high-precision components. Revenue for this joint venture was $18 million in the quarter. These indicators reflect the cumulative effect of efficiency efforts, factors that have offset softer demand conditions, scheduled shutdowns and costs associated with the launch of new programs. This performance is consistent with what we have communicated throughout 2025 as we keep consolidating the returns of investments already executed, strengthening operating indicators and ensuring business resiliency before the prevailing volatility. Saul, who will provide a detailed review of our financial performance.

Thank you, Knut, and good morning, everyone. As we close the fourth quarter 2025, our results reflect a year marked by financial discipline, operational resilience and steady execution amid a mixed automotive environment. In this sense, despite economic and regulatory uncertainties, we were able to manage market volatility drawing from the strength of our business model and a value creation scope. Before I get into the numbers, I want to emphasize that certain metrics are presented on a pro forma basis for comparability purposes. In particular, these adjustments were excluded from pro forma EBITDA. Those are $1 million recorded in the fourth quarter and $4 million for the full year, both related to our structural optimization plan. Additionally, the full year pro forma figures excludes $14 million noncash impairment charge on long-lived assets at one of Draxton's facilities. GIS performs this assessment at least annually. For additional detail, refer for the audited financial statement notes published yesterday at our website. Now let me walk you through the financial highlights. In the fourth quarter, consolidated revenue reached $242 million, up 5% in a year-over-year basis, supported by a more favorable product mix, higher value-added content and continued progress capacity expansion ramp-up, helping us to weather seasonal challenges and build a stronger top line. For the full year, consolidated revenue reached $994 million, remaining similar to the figure reported on 2024, given a softer demand for commercial vehicles in key markets, particularly in North America, alongside with an incremental competition from imports in Europe. Moving on to the P&L. Pro forma EBITDA stood at $33 million during the quarter, rising 17% annually with a margin of 14%, drawing from the increasing capacity utilization of prior investments and continued progress on improving operational efficiencies and cost optimizations. Full year pro forma EBITDA totaled $122 million, a 9% growth compared to 2024, posting margin expansion to reach a 12% rate. Turning to leverage and liquidity. Net debt as of the fourth quarter 2025 was $250 million, and net debt-to-EBITDA ratio closed at 2.1x. This improvement over the prior quarter was driven by EBITDA growth and a disciplined balance sheet management. We closed the year with a solid liquidity position, ending with a cash balance of $80 million. A significant optimization of working capital, primarily in Europe, combined with disciplined CapEx execution enabled us to generate positive cash flow for the year. In addition, we achieved approximately $5 million year-over-year in savings in financial expenses, driven by strategic initiatives led by Central Treasury, most notably the execution of an interest rate swap on our syndicated loans, along with a thorough review and optimization of financial instruments. It is important to highlight this achievement as it is not fully reflected in total comprehensive financial results due to the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations, which were favorable in 2024, but adverse in 2025. During the quarter, we were able to close a new loan at GISEderlan for $20 million on competitive terms, which will be used to strategically deploy quality growth. Throughout 2025, we remain disciplined at our CapEx program, standing at our initial guidance. For the full year, CapEx totaled $67 million, focused mainly on maintenance, automation and capacity optimization initiatives. In this regard, we expect 2026 CapEx continue the same behavior, remaining below that of 2025 to be in the range of $60 million to $70 million, mostly oriented to maintenance and select projects. Wrapping up, while the fourth quarter 2025 present volume pressures and mixed macroeconomic environment, our ability to preserve profitability, manage costs and maintain a solid financial position highlights the resilience of our business. And as we enter 2026, we will remain focused on margin improvements, disciplined capital allocation, seeking to convert all operating efficiencies into cash generation as we shift our revenue mix toward higher value-added solutions. Thank you for your attention. I will now turn the call back to Knut for his closing remarks.

Yes. Thank you, Saul. Before the Q&A, let me share with you these closing remarks. 2025 results were featured by lower sales volume alongside some improvement in profit margins from higher efficiencies and value-added processes. The resiliency of the results offset the volume decline versus the prior year and in the broader full year base as strategic investments ramp up, operating indicators were improved and sustained discipline in cost and mix was attained. Looking into 2026, our priorities are clear as we navigate the starting year to improve profitability, preserve flexibility and accelerate execution gains across the company. In the next quarters, we plan to speed up improvements in key operating indicators, prioritize profitable mix, especially in Europe, our San Luis Potosi plant and Evercast as well as we strengthen our engineering capabilities and drive commercial momentum to capitalize on the investments made recently. From a medium- to long-term standpoint, we expect continued growth in machining and other value-added processes, supported by broader outsourcing strategies from OEMs and Tier 1s across all geographies, thus enhancing our execution and capability depth. In parallel, we will scale automation and energy efficiency as structural cost advantages as well as improving competitiveness, consistency and resilience through the entire productive cycle. Regionally, our posture remains consistent. In North America, we will continue to drive operating efficiency and maintain tight control of fixed expenses while adapting to commercial vehicle market conditions. In Europe, we will continue leveraging agility and discipline to capture opportunities created by disruption in the supply chain, particularly as competitive pressure from Asian imports reshapes the cost structures across the sector. We believe Draxton is well positioned to remain a standout operator in the current environment of the region, especially as we strengthen execution and value-added processes. In China, we will remain keeping a selective quality-driven approach as we recognize the incremental exporter strength and expansion of Chinese manufacturers into other regions. We will continue with the new program launching while prioritizing value-added programs that support sustainable profitability using for this means efficiency improvements and disciplined execution to protect margins. Lastly, I would like to recognize all our teams across North America, Europe and China for their execution and commitment. The Volkswagen Best Quality Award, which our China team just recently was awarded is a clear proof of our standards and then reinforces the trust we are building with our customers throughout consistent performance and quality. Thank you for your continued trust and participation today. Operator, please open the line for questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Carlos Alcaraz from Apalache Research.

I have 2 of them. First, do you expect EBITDA margin expansion to continue in 2026? And what is your EBITDA margin expectation by the end of this year? And second, within your CapEx plan, how much is allocated to growth versus maintenance?

Thank you, Carlos, for your question. A pleasure to have you here. I will say that our expected margin will be very aligned with the margin that we achieved during the fourth quarter. Probably if I go deeper in this explanation, I will say that second half of the year will be better in terms of margins for us, while the ramp-up of the value-added processes and some other volumes in our foundry sites will go higher. In the other hand, as you know, the FX effect will impact our margins as well. So we will have to improve our productivity and efficiency in order to mitigate this adverse effect. So bottom line, I would say, we will expect probably, I will say, the same margin or in the same range with some improvements, but basically during the second half of the year. I don't know, if you will have okay. And regarding CapEx, probably Arturo will help me with this one. But I will say for 2025, our CapEx split were basically half to maintenance and half to expansion projects due to our schedule of payments for the last year's investments. We had some other type of investments during 2025. But as I mentioned before, our CapEx guidance for the year will be below the amount that we depleted -- deployed in 2025, basically around $60 million to $70 million. And I will say, Carlos, that we will remain the split basically 50-50% of maintenance and expansion.

Our next question comes from [indiscernible] from GBM.

Congratulations on the results. I have 2 questions, if I may. How are you guys looking at the year in terms of volumes and regional dynamics? And the second question is how much additional room do you see to expand the margins in 2026 without volume growth or will further be improved by greater operating leverage?

Yes. Maybe I can take this one. We will see an increase of volumes over the course of the year. Some of that is related to the challenges that Ford has with this fire of one of their suppliers. This situation is going to be corrected over the course of the next month, and that will drive up the volumes related to this product portfolio from Ford, which we all know is essential really for Ford. So we expect that to kick in beginning in Q2 to see really this recovery. And then we have other interesting launches that we are going to have in the second half of the year. And that is very much now for the, let's say, the foundry part of our business. And at the same time, we are still ramping up our capacity, both in machining and plating so that we should see not huge or magnificent growth of volume over the year, but a steady growth at a reasonable rate.

[Operator Instructions] With no further questions, I'd like to turn the call to the management.

Thank you, everyone, once again for your interest in GIS. Please do not hesitate to touch base if you have further inquiries. Have a nice day.

You may disconnect.