Grupo Traxión, S.A.B. de C.V. (TRAXIONA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Traxion Third Quarter 2024 earnings call. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Aby Lijtszain, Executive President and Co-Founder. Sir, the floor is yours.

Thank you. Good morning. Welcome, everyone. I'm very glad to share with you another good set of results in both financial and operating fronts. Again, Traxion posted record high revenues and EBITDA figures. There are many positive matters to discuss today, but I want to highlight some interesting details before handing over to Rodo, Wolf and Tonio for a deeper dive into the figures. First, on October 10th, we announced that we executed a binding agreement to acquire Solistica, the logistics subsidiary of Grupo FEMSA. If you remember last summer, when we did the follow-on offering, we said that we were going to focus our M&A efforts to strengthen the Logistics and Technology division. This is precisely what we meant. As you know, for the past 3 years, Traxion has been growing such business segment. And with the Solistica transaction, we expect this division to represent more than 50% of consolidated revenues in 2025, in line with our strategy to become increasingly asset lighter in our operations. We believe that this is a very accretive transaction for many reasons. First, it has a 100% asset-light approach, in line with our long-term strategy. Second, we will add approximately 50% of additional logistics warehouse footprint and a very strong presence in the northern region. And third, Traxion will more than double the operating volume of Traxporta as Solistica utilizes a hefty volume of third-party fleets for its operations. This will generate a very relevant synergy with Traxporta as we will be able to offer our platform to all clients, increasing our volume considerably. Moreover, there are many synergies to be captured that will further add to the profitability of the acquisition. This also represents a very strategic opportunity as the scale and relevance of acquiring Solistica sets an even higher barrier of entry into our industry. The transaction still needs to go over the normal regulatory approvals, which we expect to get within the first quarter of next year. Once closed, we expect to have our leverage ratio below 2.5x, which, as you know, is our self-imposed limit. We will, of course, keep you posted and we'll provide extensive details once we close it. Moving on, our efficiencies program evolves favorably. We are starting to see the benefits of such efforts and expect to show more in the coming quarters. This is a very positive matter for the remainder of this year and into 2025. In financial terms, there are many positive matters to talk about as well, and both Wolf and Tonio will provide more color in a moment, but I would like to highlight 2 details. First, our leverage ratio compared to the second quarter of this year is on the same level with less net debt in absolute terms and a stronger cash position. And second, it is important to bear in mind that Traxion is cash flow positive in terms of its natural operations. Actually, there is a significant increase in operating cash flow this quarter to reach almost MXN 1.5 billion. But once we consider the organic growth CapEx, we plan to end 2024 with a neutral operating cash flow position as we communicated previously this year. Thanks for your attention. With this, I end my remarks. I will now hand over to the others.

Thank you, Aby. Good morning, everyone. Welcome. It was indeed a very busy quarter in all fronts. I will now discuss the most relevant operating highlights. We have been implementing some strategic changes in our cross-border dedicated service that includes improved processes and a stronger structure as we continue to increase our presence and footprint in such market. As you have seen, this kind of service has been gaining a lot of relevance in the past few years as the nearshoring trend advance, which, by the way, has translated into higher revenues per kilometer in the cargo segment. If you take a closer look at this figure, you will notice that 3 years ago, in the third quarter of 2021, revenues per kilometer was less than MXN 22. However, this quarter, it reached MXN 33.87, which means that we have increased by more than 54% our efficiency in terms of revenue per kilometer in the cargo operations and represents a much higher productivity on a per unit basis as we continue to operate on shorter and more profitable routes. Traxion is also carrying out some other initiatives as part of our innovative process that aim to improve our operations. We are upgrading our transportation management system, conducting broader cross-selling efforts with Traxporta, and implementing a state-of-the-art monitoring system to increase the security protocols for our drivers. Moving on, a very important milestone is that we started operation of a new warehouse in San Diego, California on behalf of a large and relevant e-commerce client, and we're also analyzing operated expansions near Mexico City with them. In terms of logistics services, we continue to grow the 3PL business by becoming increasingly more efficient with warehouse area utilization. We have concentrated operations with many clients, thus avoiding many overflows, which have enabled us to increase revenues with less square footage as you have probably noticed in the 3PL warehouse area figure that we reported. As you can see, it was yet another very active period for Traxion, and we expect such level of activity to remain for the rest of the year. Well, thank you for your attention. With this, I end my remarks and will hand it over to Wolf. Please.

Thanks, Rodo. Hello, everyone. I will now discuss some important financial matters. I want to highlight again the record high figures in terms of revenue and EBITDA that came in strong despite the nonrecurring expenses related to the reorganization across the company, especially in the last mile business. We expect to see the benefits of such actions in the coming months as we think there are approximately MXN 60 million per month to be realized as a result of the efficiencies program. In that regard, in our second quarter release, we talk about nonrecurring expenses of approximately MXN 250 million. But effectively, we are looking at something around the MXN 200 million mark. Moreover, it is important to look at our EBITDA figure this quarter. If we compare it with the one of the second quarter of this year and take out the nonrecurring expenses related to the efficiencies plan, it's a very similar figure, proof that our strategy is effective. Moving on, as you know, today, the Logistics and Technology division has now an important relevance in our P&L, and we expect it to continue to keep expanding faster as part of our long-term strategy. All of that, together with the efficiencies plan on the execution this quarter have brought the margin of the division about 8%, in line with the expectations. The good news about all such growth and expansion is that there is virtual 0 CapEx and many structures operate on a cost-plus basis for our clients. So we typically look at higher profitability and better returns despite a relatively lower margin compared to our asset-based divisions. Another detail to bear in mind is the growth of the operating cash flow, which grew almost MXN 1 billion compared to the same period of last year, which is explained by better working capital management during the cycle. In terms of leverage, our ratio stands at the same level as in the second quarter of this year despite the CapEx exercise during this period. This is especially relevant as we ended in the third quarter with a cash position of more than MXN 1.3 billion, and we are able to invest roughly MXN 1 billion in organic growth. Well, thanks for your attention. I will now hand over to Tonio. Please, Tonio.

Thanks, Wolf. Hi, everyone. I will provide some interesting details, especially in the ESG front. As you know, our commitment in such matters is to be the leader in the sector as we are in our business across the board. We have pioneered and spearheaded many efforts on sustainability in the transportation and logistics industry in Mexico, such as trials with electric buses and vans and the use of alternative fuels. Today, we are running a portion of our last mile fleet with electric vehicles with very favorable results. We are also running trials with the only electric bus for private people mobility in the country with a positive outcome so far. And we have started a program to test alternative fuels such as biomethane and hydrogen. As we have been doing since we implemented our ESG strategy back in 2019, management's plan is to continue to improve and develop other relevant metrics, indicators and ratings, especially as clean energy infrastructure and technology becomes more available in Mexico. In terms of the carbon disclosure project more precisely in climate change matters, Traxion increased its rating from C to B, which is 4 notches above the media of transportation companies globally with the highlight that management is taking coordinated action on climate issues, yet another very significant upgrade. During the third quarter of this year, we completed the 2024 survey and expect to receive the results in the first months of next year. Moving on to the Standard & Poor's Corporate Sustainability Assessment, Traxion scored 58, which is a 6-point improvement compared to 2023 and positions the company within the top 8 percentile of rated companies worldwide under such assessment and in the 25th spot out of 315 companies worldwide. But most important, if we boil down these ratings to LatAm and Mexico, we are among the very top companies in such matters, both in the region and in the country. This is a very relevant evolution for Traxion. Moving on, Traxion increased 4 points in the EcoVadis survey, which monitors supplier sustainability for more than 90,000 companies in the world. For second year in a row, Traxion was awarded the silver medal and places the company within the top 25% globally in these matters. These are indeed very significant milestones as we continue to climb the ladder towards the best positions both in Mexico and globally. Finally, during the third quarter, Traxion was also awarded the 2024 Women in Companies Award by the Women on Boards Mexican chapter for having at least 20% of women independent members within our Board of Directors, which represents a great evolution in terms of corporate governance guidelines for Mexican companies. Well, as you can see, it has been a very busy quarter on every front with very relevant milestones at every business division and at the corporate level. Thanks for your attention. With this, I wrap up management remarks, and we'll open the floor to Q&A.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question is coming from Pablo Ricalde from Itau.

I have 2 questions. The first one is on the non-recurring expenses related to the divestment of the B2C business. I don't know how much expenses are pending to be registered on the fourth quarter of this year? That's my first question. And the second one is maybe touching a little bit more on 2025. How are you seeing demand trends for 2025? Thank you, Pablo.

This is Antonio. I will answer your second question first. The outlook for 2025 is we've been seeing strong demand activity so far, and that has enabled us to close many contracts for next year as part of the pipeline. However, we are analyzing the option to be a little more conservative in terms of CapEx next year. We will continue to privilege the growth of Logistics and Technology division, which, as you know, has very low CapEx requirements and thus becoming increasingly asset lighter at the company level. We have also analyzed different ways to maintain growth with less CapEx, which is mainly through pricing increases and other efficiencies throughout the company. And all that, together with the less CapEx figure we are thinking about should boost cash flows and returns. And regarding your first question, we expect a little more non-recurring expenses related to the restructuring and for the efficiencies program on the fourth quarter. But it's a figure -- it's not a relevant figure. We're expecting something between the MXN 20 million and MXN 30 million mark.

Your next question is coming from Alejandro Demichelis from Jefferies.

A couple of questions, if I may, please. The first one is we have seen an improvement in your margin this quarter. So how sustainable those margins are, say, into the fourth quarter and then into next year? That's the first question. And then on the second question, on the mobility of personnel EBITDA and cost, we have seen quite a big increase on the cost side. You're mentioning that that's because you're bringing some new units. So the question is, when can we expect a more normalized cost evolution for that mobility personnel division?

Alejandro, this is Antonio. Thanks for your questions. I'll answer the first. I think that you should expect the same margins at every single corporate division for the rest of the year. I think that you should expect those same levels for the fourth quarter.

Alejandro, this is Wolf. I'm talking about your second question in the mobility of people EBITDA and cost and expenses. I will answer saying that we will expect by the fourth quarter basically to, let's say, to recover that particular margin. So this will kick up a little bit the margins for the fourth quarter of this year. So the pre-operating expenses will be less important in terms of the cost and expense of the company of that part of the division in the next quarter.

Okay. But then if the margins in that division go up, then the margins for the whole of the company should go up in the fourth quarter. Is that right?

Yes, correct. Just remember, obviously, that the percentage in revenues that the Logistics and Mobility division is contribute to the revenues of the company is getting more relevant every quarter.

Your next question is coming from Fernanda Recchia from BTG.

Two from our side. The first, maybe if you please could provide a little bit more details on the synergies that you're expecting from Solistica, thinking on the short term, what are the main drivers of synergies? Maybe if you could comment both on the top line and cost perspective. And second, Antonio, I think you mentioned about being more conscious on cash for next year, especially in terms of CapEx. I was thinking if you could please comment on if you're expecting to generate cash flow next year, how are you thinking on the cash flow generation trend? That's it from my side.

Fernanda, this is Aby. So I will answer the first question. So the synergies that we expect with Solistica, so they are different. So in the short term, we see at the corporate level, so the organization – I mean we till need 2 corporates. So I see some immediate synergies in that. Those synergies maybe will be around MXN 50 million per year that will go straight to the bottom line. But also, we see very strong synergies in the commercial part because we are located on different regions in the country, and we do have different clients. So making cross-selling through all these clients, I mean, from Traxion to Solistica and from Solistica to Traxion, I see a lot of commercial opportunity there. Also, Solistica hires a lot of transportation. So Traxion can provide the transportation for Solistica's clients. And these transaction make Traxion much more stronger in logistics. So those are the main synergies that I see in the transaction.

Fernanda, this is Wolf. Regarding your second question in terms of how are we looking for the CapEx for the next year. Obviously, we are defining everything in these days. But in particular, as Tonio mentioned, we are looking how we can improve, obviously, profitability margins in the company besides absorbing the M&A transaction, obviously, for the 2025 and how can we kick up, obviously, all the company's business for the 2025 without having to invest in a higher figure for 2025. So as of now, I will say that the program in the company for the next year will be how to have a positive operating cash flow in the company and that will be obviously part of the main things that we're working on and that will be a less CapEx figure for 2025 regarding obviously, as a percentage of the revenues of the company.

That's great. Just a follow-up, Aby, just to confirm, the MXN 50 million per year you mentioned is just related to the corporate level. On top of that, you have the synergies coming from transportation costs and commercial.

Yes. So that's on the corporate level. We do see more efficiencies during time, but they're not going to be immediate, but we expect also to have in different areas for the company. But that figure, the EUR 50 million, it's only for the corporate level.

So I would like to add that with those efficiencies that Traxion is going to put in place in the transaction, I see very accretive operation with a lot of synergies and that gives a very competitive position to Traxion.

Your next question is coming from Jay Singh from Citi.

I'm Jay dialing on for Stephen Trent. I guess the first thing I wanted to ask is, do you have any early thoughts on how [ Trump ] administration might be supporting nearshoring or if there's anything cooking up?

Jay, this is Tonio. Thanks for your question. I think that the Trump administration is going to follow the same line as in the first 4 years of his administration. I think that well, that administration started nearshoring, and I think that the wisest thing to do is to maintain that the following 4 years.

Another question I have is following Solistica's acquisition, next year, are you planning to ease off a bit on M&A activity? Or are you still going to consider more targets in the short term and if so, how are you going to finance it? Are you going to do another equity follow-on or rely on cash flow? How would then the current benefits kick in?

Hi Jay, this is Aby. So the plan for Traxion for now is to put in place the Solistica acquisition. So we're not planning for now to do another acquisition and as Tonio mentioned, we are planning to fund this with the resources of Traxion, the cash flow of Traxion and also some debt that will put the company below 2.5x, which is our internal policy. We're not planning to go to the market and just to continue operating the company and to make movements that will grow the cash flow of Traxion as we are right now.

Your next question is coming from Pablo Monsivais from Barclays.

I was wondering on the working capital efforts that you are making this quarter. What you did differently this quarter versus last year? And what should we expect going forward in terms of working capital? And also, I have a question on taxes. It seems quite high this year. So, if you could provide some outlook on the taxes front.

This is Wolf. Regarding your first question on the working capital cycle, I will say, obviously, we'll be growing the company throughout the segment. We basically are working together, obviously, with the clients also with the providers in the company. So, this was basically something or some efforts that we made in the previous months that we're working together with our own logistics chain so we can have a better working capital cycle throughout the company. So, we will try to maintain, obviously, this one even though with the growth in the company in the next quarters. And regarding your second question in terms of taxes, if you look at the accumulated figure for the first 9 months in the year, it's something related to the 30%. And then in regular terms, we should be expecting as a regular tax rate to be close to the 30% regular tax rate.

Your next question is coming from Martin Lara from Miranda Global Research.

Congratulations for these results. I have 2 questions. The first one is, can we expect additional extraordinary charges in the fourth quarter? And the second one is CapEx fell 9% in the quarter, but you acquired more trucks in this period compared to last year. So, could you please explain that difference?

Yes, Martin, thanks. I think that -- let me answer the second question first. If you see the difference in average in the fleet is $1,276, but it's compared to the third quarter of last year. I think the proper comparison in terms of comparing CapEx should be with the second quarter of this year. So that was the real CapEx that we exercised. And the second one regarding the nonrecurring expenses -- the first one, sorry, regarding the nonrecurring expenses, we are looking at something very -- not relevant in the fourth quarter. It's something -- it's going to be something between MXN 20 million and MXN 30 million. But that's it.

MXN 20 million and MXN 30 million?

Yes.

Your next question is coming from Daniel Rojas from Bank of America.

I want to go back to Traxporta -- and in your report, you mentioned that you saw growth of 60% in the division. And you also mentioned today that the Solistica acquisition is going to help Traxporta grow in the future. I was just hoping for some comments -- some additional color on the underlying trends you're seeing in Traxporta finishing the year. The economy is slowing down a bit. Are you seeing that for next year, do you see -- are those trends going to continue strong as we have seen them in the past?

So, we see that the acquisition of Solistica can bring a very big volume to Traxporta. So, we think that the company can multiply the size of maybe 3x for next year. So, as I mentioned, there is a huge opportunity there for Traxporta.

[Operator Instructions] Your next question is coming from Guilherme Mendes from JPMorgan.

I have 2 -- one follow-up on Solistica and another question on FX. The first on the acquisition is if you can comment on the ex Mexico operations. I understand if you don't target to keep the Brazilian and Colombian operations. Just wanted to clarify if that's the case and how advanced are the negotiations to potentially divest from it? And the second question is on the FX exposure on your EBITDA margin. How should we think about the impact of the recent peso depreciation into your profitability levels?

Yes, I want to confirm that we don't plan to maintain Brazil and Colombia. So, we are planning to invest in the short term these operations, and we are pretty advanced on that. And Wolf, can you do the second one?

Regarding the FX question, remember that approximately 17% of the revenues in Traxion are in U.S. dollar denominated. So, we basically have, as of now, as you mentioned, some, let's say, benefit. But remember that we are in the same levels as we were a few years ago. So, we are basically in the same levels in the MXN 19, MXN 20 per dollar. So, it's something that it's just like recovering in terms of rates in the U.S. dollar rate for our clients. So as part of the Traxion's revenue, this will be a benefit.

Thank you. That concludes our Q&A session. I will now hand the conference back to Aby Lijtszain for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

While we continue to see strong demand and have already closed some contracts as part of next year pipeline, we are currently analyzing the option to become more conservative in our CapEx figure. One of the options we are reviewing for next year is to combine pricing efficiencies together with our limited organic growth and adding several efficiencies that will enhance profitability and ultimately achieve similar growth rates. Management will continue to privilege growth in the Logistics and Technology division, which has significantly lower CapEx needs to become an increasingly asset-lighter company. All those efforts will result in an expansion of our cash flows and an increasing returns, which are within our top priorities now. Thanks for your attention. Have an excellent week.

Thank you, everyone. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.